Staying focused on the Abreu option

[Sambito]

Three way trade: A's, Phils, Stros

A's get: Burke & Qualls & Phils PBTNL
Phils get: Zito
Stros get Abreu

$$$ should also be a factor here as well

[Chad Qualls Himself]

Unless the Phil's PBTNL is an A prospect, I don't see this working.

If I had my way, it would look more like this.

A's get : Burke, Wandy, Scott, and another minor leauger

Astros get : Zito, $$$

[Tralfaz]

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Unless the Phil's PBTNL is an A prospect, I don't see this working.

If I had my way, it would look more like this.

A's get : Burke, Wandy, Scott, and another minor leauger

Astros get : Zito, $$$

And Bagwell turns 25 next year?

[LJ1]

Read on Metsblog.com that the Astros were still looking to get Abreu.  Philly is looking to get a quality starting pitcher in return for Abreu.  The site says the Phillies are looking to get Contreras to replace what they have to give up to get Abreu.  I think they meant to say the Astros were looking to get Contreras to replace what they would have to give up to get Abreu.  That makes sense.  Backe and whatever to get Abreu, and Taveras and whatever has been talked about to get Contreras to replace Backe.  I don't mind loosing Taveras if we end up with a big bat.  What other players do you think would have to be involved to make this happen?

[Chad Qualls Himself]

If I had my way, yes, yes he would.

[HudsonHawk]

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Read on Metsblog.com that the Astros were still looking to get Abreu.  Philly is looking to get a quality starting pitcher in return for Abreu.  The site says the Phillies are looking to get Contreras to replace what they have to give up to get Abreu.  I think they meant to say the Astros were looking to get Contreras to replace what they would have to give up to get Abreu.  That makes sense.  Backe and whatever to get Abreu, and Taveras and whatever has been talked about to get Contreras to replace Backe.  I don't mind loosing Taveras if we end up with a big bat.  What other players do you think would have to be involved to make this happen?

There is no way in hell the Astros get Abreu for Backe.  I hate to be the one to break this to people, but right now, the Astros trade bait *starts* with Brad Lidge.

[LJ1]

Never said Backe for Abreu straight up.  Just asked for opinions on what ELSE it would take.  I know it was kicked around before, but don't remember what all was said.

[LJ1]

I would rather trade Lidge than Backe anyway.

[hostros7]

we really can't trade Backe at this point, imo.  Not unless he is packaged and we get starting pitching in return.  I don't want to part with either of them, but having qualls/wheeler in the wings makes Lidge a little more dispensible.

[LJ1]

I could see something like Taveras and a top minor league pitcher to the White Sox for Contreras and either Contreras or Backe and Lane to the Phillies for Abreu.  Contreras would even out the money more.  Neither the Phillies or White Sox need a closer.  Burke in center until Biggio retires and someone like Anderson is ready for center.

Who has more value, Backe or Contreras?  I like Backe better, but Contreras had a heck of a year last year.

[ASTROCREEP]

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I would rather trade Lidge than Backe anyway.

Did you watch ANY games last year BESIDES the ST. Louis
and Chicago playoff games?

[Ron Brand]

Contreras is probably too old to have just discovered how to pitch.  His past is nothing spectacular - I think I'd rather bank on Burke's upside.  If we had to lose Backe, Taveras and Lane for Abreu I think it would have already been done.

[LJ1]

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I would rather trade Lidge than Backe anyway.

Did you watch ANY games last year BESIDES the ST. Louis
and Chicago playoff games?

Yes, I watched all year.  Lidge is great, but we have some other pitchers that can fill that role.  Maybe not as well, but they can fill it.  Backe is tough, especially under pressure.  With the price quality starters are going for, he would be harder to replace.

[Zan]

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Lidge is great, but we have some other pitchers that can fill that role.  Maybe not as well, but they can fill it.

Isn't the whole point how well the role is filled? I'm fine trading Lidge for the right deal, but I can't imagine, barring an injury threat I'm unaware of, that Lidge is easier to replace than Backe. Maybe I'm wrong. But here's a (albeit imprefect) frame of reference.

According to this method, Lidge was the  10th most valuable reliever, while Backe was the  90th most valuable starter. I realize this method is imperfect and that comparing starters to closers is somewhat apples to oranges. And I know Backe was hurt. But I maintain there's enough margin for error & imperfect analysis here that, however you slice it, Lidge is harder to replace. At the same time, I'm sure I'm missing some variables - maybe the dropoff is sharper at SP such that the 90th most valuable starter is harder to replace than the 10th most valuable reliever. I don't know.

I'm more concerned with a potential injury to Lidge. Something about the way he throws and his history has me terrified that he's more likely than even most closers to endure a serious injury one of these years. But I'm totally ignorant in this area.

[HudsonHawk]

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If we had to lose Backe, Taveras and Lane for Abreu I think it would have already been done.

Why don't we throw in Oswalt and Berkman?  Geez.

[HudsonHawk]

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I'm more concerned with a potential injury to Lidge. Something about the way he throws and his history has me terrified that he's more likely than even most closers to endure a serious injury one of these years. But I'm totally ignorant in this area.

Many people have been saying for a long time that Lidge is a damaged shoulder waiting to happen.  Don't be surprised at all if he has a major breakdown soon.

[LJ1]

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Lidge is great, but we have some other pitchers that can fill that role.  Maybe not as well, but they can fill it.

Isn't the whole point how well the role is filled? I'm fine trading Lidge for the right deal, but I can't imagine, barring an injury threat I'm unaware of, that Lidge is easier to replace than Backe. Maybe I'm wrong. But here's a (albeit imprefect) frame of reference.

According to this method, Lidge was the  10th most valuable reliever, while Backe was the  90th most valuable starter. I realize this method is imperfect and that comparing starters to closers is somewhat apples to oranges. And I know Backe was hurt. But I maintain there's enough margin for error & imperfect analysis here that, however you slice it, Lidge is harder to replace. At the same time, I'm sure I'm missing some variables - maybe the dropoff is sharper at SP such that the 90th most valuable starter is harder to replace than the 10th most valuable reliever. I don't know.

I'm more concerned with a potential injury to Lidge. Something about the way he throws and his history has me terrified that he's more likely than even most closers to endure a serious injury one of these years. But I'm totally ignorant in this area.

I agree that Lidge is better at his job than Backe is at his at this point.  But I also feel a quality starter is more valuable than a quality reliever or closer.  Especially for us since we have Qualls and Wheeler in the wings.  We are running short on proven major league starters.  Lidge has a ton of value right now and hopefully we can find the bat we need from someone needing a closer.  Unfortunately, neither Chicago or Philly need a closer right now.  Those are the most talked about trading partners we have been linked with that I know of.

[Zan]

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But I also feel a quality starter is more valuable than a quality reliever or closer.

I agree. But we're not comparing quality to quality. If Backe can be described as "quality," Lidge must be described as "utterly dominant," which isn't a bad description of him.

[JimR]

Lidge is a walking injury risk, and he is being offered.

[Dobro]

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Lidge is a walking injury risk, and he is being offered.

Yep, I think the Astros have rode the hot hand that is Lidge long enough.

[Froback]

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Lidge is a walking injury risk, and he is being offered.

Yep, I think the Astros have rode the hot hand that is Lidge long enough.

What 2 years?

I agree that Lidge should not be considered an untouchable, and that his history leans toward expecting an injury at some point.. but let's not act like closers can't last more than two years.

I think the Astros have several candidates for a closer job, which makes Lidge more expendible than some others (like Taveras) where alternatives are not as plentiful.

And I salivate at the thought of Abreu in the #2 spot in the line-up with Berkman, Ensberg and Bagwell/Lane sitting in 3, 4 and 5.

[MusicMan]

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What 2 years?

I agree that Lidge should not be considered an untouchable, and that his history leans toward expecting an injury at some point.. but let's not act like closers can't last more than two years.

Eric Gagne has better mechanics, and his arm is now a mess.

If we could get high value for Brad, I'd be happy to make the deal.

[HudsonHawk]

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I agree that Lidge should not be considered an untouchable, and that his history leans toward expecting an injury at some point.. but let's not act like closers can't last more than two years.

It isn't his history that makes you expect an injury, it's his mechanics. No one is saying closers can't last more than 2 years, they're saying Brad Lidge likely won't last much more than that.

[Jacksonian]

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I agree that Lidge should not be considered an untouchable, and that his history leans toward expecting an injury at some point.. but let's not act like closers can't last more than two years.

It isn't his history that makes you expect an injury, it's his mechanics. No one is saying closers can't last more than 2 years, they're saying Brad Lidge likely won't last much more than that.

I've read what those here are saying about it.  But, I haven't heard anyone with the Astros say it.  Does anyone have a Astros source saying that as well?

[Dobro]

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I've read what those here are saying about it.  But, I haven't heard anyone with the Astros say it.  Does anyone have a Astros source saying that as well?

Do you really think the Astros would go on record with those types of concerns at this point?

[Froback]

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I've read what those here are saying about it.  But, I haven't heard anyone with the Astros say it.  Does anyone have a Astros source saying that as well?

Do you really think the Astros would go on record with those types of concerns at this point?

No but behind closed doors people talk.  And we do have people here that have amazing contacts at times.  That doesn't mean that they will share that type of info, but you never know what people know unless you ask.

But I agree that Lidge's value is at a really high level right now and should an injury occur, it will likely never be this high again.

[HudsonHawk]

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Does anyone have a Astros source saying that as well?

Yes, though not publically.  They aren't going to be printing that kind of thing in the paper.

[Jacksonian]

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Does anyone have a Astros source saying that as well?

Yes, though not publically.  They aren't going to be printing that kind of thing in the paper.

Well of course not publically.  I asked a yes/no question (thanks for answering) on purpose knowing those that did have inside info would not share much more than that.

[Jacksonian]

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I've read what those here are saying about it.  But, I haven't heard anyone with the Astros say it.  Does anyone have a Astros source saying that as well?

Do you really think the Astros would go on record with those types of concerns at this point?

As I responded to HH, of course they wouldn't.  I don't have a source telling me anything about Lidge so I asked if anyone had a source telling them.  A simple yes or no.

[Jacksonian]

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I've read what those here are saying about it.  But, I haven't heard anyone with the Astros say it.  Does anyone have a Astros source saying that as well?

Do you really think the Astros would go on record with those types of concerns at this point?

No but behind closed doors people talk.  And we do have people here that have amazing contacts at times.  That doesn't mean that they will share that type of info, but you never know what people know unless you ask.

But I agree that Lidge's value is at a really high level right now and should an injury occur, it will likely never be this high again.

Of course other teams have good scouts and are likely to notice Lidge's mechanical issues as well.  I'm sure many teams are using that as a bargaining tool.

[Arky Vaughan]

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I agree that Lidge is better at his job than Backe is at his at this point.  But I also feel a quality starter is more valuable than a quality reliever or closer.

I like Backe well enough, but I think you rate his status as a "quality starter" a bit too highly.

[Uncle Charlie]

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Lidge is a walking injury risk, and he is being offered.

Yep, I think the Astros have rode the hot hand that is Lidge long enough.

You can count on one hand the number of closers who have been as good as Lidge has over a sustained period of time without a major injury or significant deterioration of performance (or both).  Seems like a simple sell high case.