Interesting Facts about the offense last season

[DVauthrin]

 June

Team scored 119 runs in 25 games, not counting the replayed cincinnati game at the end of the month.  Average runs per game: 4.76

 July

Team scored 150 runs in 29 games.  Average runs per game: 5.1724

 August

Team scored 109 runs in 27 games.  Average runs per game: 4.037

 Sept/Oct(pre playoffs)

Team scored 131 runs in 30 games.  Average runs per game: 4.36666

That comes out to 509 runs in 111 games.  Average per game: 4.5855

In April and May, the team scored 182 runs in 51 games.   Or 3.568 runs per game(and Lance Berkman's May was him working back into game shape and honing his swing).

If I take the average runs per game number from June to Sept and multiply it over the full season, we get 742.86 runs or in better terms 743 runs.(which places them ahead of Colorado for 5th in the league last year)

Now, you might be wondering who did what in each month.  I can tell you first batting average, then obp, then slg, then total OPS.  


1. Willy: .343 .356 .412 .768 in June, .321 .353 .357 .710 in July, .309 .353 .327 .680 in August, .241 .264 .253 .517 in September.   So willy was a big factor in every month but September.

2. Biggio: .276 .345 .408 .754 in June, .263 .333 .535 .869 in July, .245 .302 .316 .618 in August, .231 .283 .490 .774 in Sept.   Bidge was horrible in August, and average in June and was good power wise in Sept but horrible at getting on base.  He had a great July like the whole team did.

3. Berkman: .308 .427 .538 .966 in June, .362 .455 .638 1.093 in July, .242 .368 .389 .758 in August, .319 .455 .713 1.167 in Sept.   Lance's struggles in August along with Craig's account for that being the lowest scoring per game month of the 4.

4.  Ensberg: .287 .369 .638 1.008 in June, .300 .391 .627 1.018 in July, .264 .402 .538 .940 in August, .295 .403 .475 .878 in Sept.  Morgan was the most consistent hitter in the lineup by month.

5.  Lane: .259 .308 .647 .955 in June, .317 .356 .512 .868 in July, .289 .322 .530 .852 in Aug, .279 .342 .481 .823 in Sept.  The second most consistent hitter by month.

6.  Everett: .263 .311 .326 .637 in June, .267 .306 .416 .721 in July, .274 .296 .379 .675 in Aug, .218 .244 .276 .520 in Sept.   Adam was his offensive self in every month but September.   He also hits much better at home: .282 .323 .425 .748 than away: .216 .258 .307 .566.  

7.  Ausmus: .137 .279 .176 .455 in June, .301 .363 .370 .732 in July, .310 .410 .380 .790 in Aug, .286 .398 .429 .826 in Sept. Brad had nothing to do with the June success, but he was helpful in every other month.

8.  Lamb: .250 .280 .250 .530 in June(24 at bats), .235 .255 .490 .745 in July(51 ab), .171 .190 .244 .434 in Aug(41 ab), .319 .392 .609 1.001 in Sept.(69 ab's).

9.   Palmeiro: .310 .375 .552 .927 in June(29 ab's), .345 .383 .564 .947 in July(55 at bats), .250 .282 .333 .615 in Aug(36 ab), .115 .233 .192 .426 in Sept.(26 ab)

10.  Burke: .244 .313 .349 .661 in June(86 ab), .244 .306 .295 .601 in July(78 ab), .265 .329 .544 .873 in August(68 ab), .250 .302 .375 .677 in Sept(40 ab)

The bottom line is in June, the team scored runs mainly due to productive months from Willy, Craig, Lance, Morgan and Jason.  Orlando did well in limited at bats, and Everett did his usual, but Brad, Burke and Lamb weren't productive.

In July everyone except Chris Burke out of the main starters hit well, thus the 5.17 average.   In August, biggio and lance had horrid months, thus the low average.   With the way lance and biggio hit, they wasted Brad's OBP of .410 that month.  Finally, in September/Oct, Brad, Jason, Lance and Mike had good months, and bidge was decent OPS wise but horrible at getting on base.  Everett and Willy had bad months, and Morgan had a decent month OPS wise, but I think that masked his power struggles/injury.  Honestly, the 4.37 runs per game in Sept is mainly the fact Craig and Willy never got on base, plus Ensberg had a down month in reality.

The point here is the offense wasn't nearly as bad as a lot of people think it was last year.

[jasonact]

You're absolutely right. The offense sucked in April and May, which is the main reason they fell to 15-30. They picked it up for some obvious reasons and some not so obvious ones. IMO, they ended up doing fairy well offensively (until the NLCS, where the offense was just enough and the WS where it almost disappeared).

That said, I would be thrilled if they were able to get another good bat, but I'll still feel good about the team even if they don't.

[Limey]

Quote:
That said, I would be thrilled if they were able to get another good bat, but I'll still feel good about the team even if they don't.

What they lacked was a solid average guy to protect the meat of the order.  Leading club BA was Berkman at .293, and that's pretty sad that your hobbled masher is also your best hitter for average.

Adam Dunn and is Everettesque batting average was not, and is not, the answer.  If you're looking at the Reds the better pick-up was Casey (too late, I know).  He has less power than you'd expect from a first baseman, but has solid gap power and can be expected to top .300 every year.  The Astros should be looking for a high-average hitting outfielder.

Just think how many more games the Astros would've won with one extra hit somewhere in the mid-to-late innings!  I can think of 4 right at the end...

[NeilT]

Quote:
June

Team scored 119 runs in 25 games, not counting the replayed cincinnati game at the end of the month.  Average runs per game: 4.76

 July

Team scored 150 runs in 29 games.  Average runs per game: 5.1724

 August

Team scored 109 runs in 27 games.  Average runs per game: 4.037

 Sept/Oct(pre playoffs)

Team scored 131 runs in 30 games.  Average runs per game: 4.36666

That comes out to 509 runs in 111 games.  Average per game: 4.5855

In April and May, the team scored 182 runs in 51 games.   Or 3.568 runs per game(and Lance Berkman's May was him working back into game shape and honing his swing).

If I take the average runs per game number from June to Sept and multiply it over the full season, we get 742.86 runs or in better terms 743 runs.(which places them ahead of Colorado for 5th in the league last year)

Now, you might be wondering who did what in each month.  I can tell you first batting average, then obp, then slg, then total OPS.  


1. Willy: .343 .356 .412 .768 in June, .321 .353 .357 .710 in July, .309 .353 .327 .680 in August, .241 .264 .253 .517 in September.   So willy was a big factor in every month but September.

2. Biggio: .276 .345 .408 .754 in June, .263 .333 .535 .869 in July, .245 .302 .316 .618 in August, .231 .283 .490 .774 in Sept.   Bidge was horrible in August, and average in June and was good power wise in Sept but horrible at getting on base.  He had a great July like the whole team did.

3. Berkman: .308 .427 .538 .966 in June, .362 .455 .638 1.093 in July, .242 .368 .389 .758 in August, .319 .455 .713 1.167 in Sept.   Lance's struggles in August along with Craig's account for that being the lowest scoring per game month of the 4.

4.  Ensberg: .287 .369 .638 1.008 in June, .300 .391 .627 1.018 in July, .264 .402 .538 .940 in August, .295 .403 .475 .878 in Sept.  Morgan was the most consistent hitter in the lineup by month.

5.  Lane: .259 .308 .647 .955 in June, .317 .356 .512 .868 in July, .289 .322 .530 .852 in Aug, .279 .342 .481 .823 in Sept.  The second most consistent hitter by month.

6.  Everett: .263 .311 .326 .637 in June, .267 .306 .416 .721 in July, .274 .296 .379 .675 in Aug, .218 .244 .276 .520 in Sept.   Adam was his offensive self in every month but September.   He also hits much better at home: .282 .323 .425 .748 than away: .216 .258 .307 .566.  

7.  Ausmus: .137 .279 .176 .455 in June, .301 .363 .370 .732 in July, .310 .410 .380 .790 in Aug, .286 .398 .429 .826 in Sept. Brad had nothing to do with the June success, but he was helpful in every other month.

8.  Lamb: .250 .280 .250 .530 in June(24 at bats), .235 .255 .490 .745 in July(51 ab), .171 .190 .244 .434 in Aug(41 ab), .319 .392 .609 1.001 in Sept.(69 ab's).

9.   Palmeiro: .310 .375 .552 .927 in June(29 ab's), .345 .383 .564 .947 in July(55 at bats), .250 .282 .333 .615 in Aug(36 ab), .115 .233 .192 .426 in Sept.(26 ab)

10.  Burke: .244 .313 .349 .661 in June(86 ab), .244 .306 .295 .601 in July(78 ab), .265 .329 .544 .873 in August(68 ab), .250 .302 .375 .677 in Sept(40 ab)

The bottom line is in June, the team scored runs mainly due to productive months from Willy, Craig, Lance, Morgan and Jason.  Orlando did well in limited at bats, and Everett did his usual, but Brad, Burke and Lamb weren't productive.

In July everyone except Chris Burke out of the main starters hit well, thus the 5.17 average.   In August, biggio and lance had horrid months, thus the low average.   With the way lance and biggio hit, they wasted Brad's OBP of .410 that month.  Finally, in September/Oct, Brad, Jason, Lance and Mike had good months, and bidge was decent OPS wise but horrible at getting on base.  Everett and Willy had bad months, and Morgan had a decent month OPS wise, but I think that masked his power struggles/injury.  Honestly, the 4.37 runs per game in Sept is mainly the fact Craig and Willy never got on base, plus Ensberg had a down month in reality.

The point here is the offense wasn't nearly as bad as a lot of people think it was last year.

Great post.  Willy's steady decline across the board is steady.  It'll be interesting to see how he starts off in April and May.  They need to get Ensberg a body guard, he just doesn't play well in pain.  

I'm not so sure about Lane and consistency.  It's like watching a roller coaster.  I guess being the most consistent is kindofa relative thing.

Justice on XM radio was saying that Everett's average last year was possibly tied to his personal problems, and that he thought the team would be very happy if they could get him back to 2004.

Burke's power numbers in August are at least something.  Watching what the team does with Burke is going to be pretty
interesting.

[EmirOfSchmoe]

Gaetti has also made alot of right handed players fall in love with pulling the ball down the left field line shooting for the Crawford Boxes.  I see this especially with Everette.  Ensberg could also take the ball the other way on occassion also.

Just my 2 cents

[FLSnuffy]

Excellent post!  Thanks for the work with the stats.

After reading your post, I got curious about some more stats.  Hope you don't mind me adding a few notes [& links].

 

Quote:
In April and May, the team scored 182 runs in 51 games. Or 3.568 runs per game(and Lance Berkman's May was him working back into game shape and honing his swing).  

 March/April ? only Pittsburg [#16 w/ 65 runs] scored less runs than the Astros [#15 w/ 84 runs]; OBP .325; SLG .392; AVG .251.  
 May ? Every other team, including the Cubs, Giants & Nats w/ 104 runs [tied for #13], outscored the Astros? 98 runs [#16]; OBP .290; SLG .365; AVG .230.

 

Quote:
June - Team scored 119 runs in 25 games, not counting the replayed cincinnati game at the end of the month. Average runs per game: 4.76  

 June ? Astros? production [121 runs] ranked #10 w/ 98 runs; OBP .329; SLG .421; AVG .261.

 

Quote:
July - Team scored 150 runs in 29 games. Average runs per game: 5.1724  

 July ? Astros? production [150 runs] ranked #2, nine runs behind the Reds; OBP .340; SLG .501; AVG .275.

Quote:
August - Team scored 109 runs in 27 games. Average runs per game: 4.037  

 August ? Astros? production [109 runs] ranked #14 just ahead of the Brewers [108] and the Giants [93]; OBP .326; SLG .383; AVG .261.

 

Quote:
Sept/Oct(pre playoffs) - Team scored 131 runs in 30 games. Average runs per game: 4.36666  

 Sept/Oct ? Astros? production [131 runs] ranked #6 behind the Phillies [186], the Rockies [164], the Reds [141], and the Braves & Brewers [139]; OBP .324; SLG .413; AVG .250.

 

Quote:
In July everyone except Chris Burke out of the main starters hit well, thus the 5.17 average. In August, biggio and lance had horrid months, thus the low average. With the way lance and biggio hit, they wasted Brad's OBP of .410 that month. Finally, in September/Oct, Brad, Jason, Lance and Mike had good months, and bidge was decent OPS wise but horrible at getting on base. Everett and Willy had bad months, and Morgan had a decent month OPS wise, but I think that masked his power struggles/injury. Honestly, the 4.37 runs per game in Sept is mainly the fact Craig and Willy never got on base, plus Ensberg had a down month in reality.  

Month by month scoring ranking by Astros [w/ ERA & W-L]:
Mar/April - #15 [84 runs] w/ ERA of 3.51 & 9 wins ? 13 losses.
May - #16 [98] w/ 5.02 ERA [10 ? 19]
June - #10 [121] w/ 3.34 ERA [16 ? 9]
July - #2 [150] w/ 2.48 ERA [22 ? 7]
August - #14 [109] w/ 3.43 ERA [13 ? 14]
Sept/Oct - #6 [131] w/ 3.38 ERA [19 ? 11]

During July the Astros were #2 in runs scored and #1 in ERA.  The 22 - 7 record for the month was no accident.

Your point is well taken.  

I would rather see Willy, Burke, Lane and Everett continue to grow offensively, Ensberg and Berkman maintain their production and see what Bags can do.  

Who knows, maybe even Hobbs might just prove a lot of experts wrong and produce as well.  That would really make that Roberson trade w/ the Indians a good one, wouldn't it.

Perhaps, more than another run producer, we might need to give the young guys [& Purp] some more time.  

It certainly turned out well last year.

[The Third Man]

   Nice contribution by the original poster in this thread. I think the evidence points to the Astros having the potential to have a decent offense, but I am leery of extrapolating too much from this limited sample size.  While the 2006 Astros may not have bad stretches comparable to April and May of last year, I can't discount the possibility of prolonged slumps from many in this lineup. As Limey pointed out, they don't have many players who hit for a high average, or get on base enough.


      It is more reasonable to expect their offense to be below average, as it was for the majority of the year, then it is to predict them being a high scoring offense based on their being the second best run producing club in the league as it was for last July. Throw out the top and bottom month and the Astros are a middle of the pack of lineup. While they don't need to be the '27 Yankees, I think they will need to improve since their pitching is unlikely to be quite as good.

    I guess I am not sold on solely depending on the young players improving across the board to boost the offense since you could argue that Ensberg peaked last year and Biggio had an above average year for a 39 year old. Picking up the Rondell Whites of the world will never make, or break any team, but adding somebody like him would give the Astros a few more options in case the kids, or Bagwell don't produce as expected. Oh, well..it's only Christmas. Can't panic too much about the line-up...