am I crazy?

[toddthebod]

But I don't understand why we are looking for a starting outfielder.  If Bagwell is lifting weights and thinks that he is going to be fine next season, isn't he going to be the first baseman?  So then Berkman is back in left, Willy T. is in center, and Lane is in right.  Rondell doesn't start over any of them.  So why are the Astros paying for a very expensive fourth outfielder.

The only way this makes any sense is if Bagwell really isn't coming back.  And if that is the case, just freaking say so.  

And while I'm ranting, why are the Astros paying Ausmus more for this contract than for the last one?  Is he going to get better over the next two years?  Where was Ausmus going?  San Diego is more than set at catcher.

[cc]

1)Yes, you're crazy.

2)Risk management, my dear boy. Risk management.

3)Ausmus love = Roger love.  Besides, I thought he was clutch down the stretch offensively, and sabermetrics can never calculate his value to Garner as the extra coach on the field, the stabilizing force for the pitching staff.  They probably want him in the organization post-retirement.

[DVauthrin]

I think the fact that Nomar is also on the radar screen illustrates that Jeff is not progressing well in rehab throwing a baseball.  Because he won't be as cheap as White.  

Plus, the Astros want to be protected against another flare up in his shoulder i'm sure even if he can come back.   That explains the White interest.  A guy good enough to start, but because of injuries his price is severely reduced and no guarantee of starting because of them as well.

[Froback]

Quote:
But I don't understand why we are looking for a starting outfielder.  If Bagwell is lifting weights and thinks that he is going to be fine next season, isn't he going to be the first baseman?  So then Berkman is back in left, Willy T. is in center, and Lane is in right.  Rondell doesn't start over any of them.  So why are the Astros paying for a very expensive fourth outfielder.

The only way this makes any sense is if Bagwell really isn't coming back.  And if that is the case, just freaking say so.  

Lifting weights doesn't equal being able to play the field or even hit well.  I hope he comes back, but the Astros need a back-up plan.  I think it very likely that Burke is being used as the back-up for Biggio if Biggio shows the 2nd half of least year is more indicative of his future production than the 1st half.
Also adding White makes Burke more available to trade options then he is now, where he is likely the #1 back-up in the OF if Bagwell cannot go come Spring Training.

Quote:
And while I'm ranting, why are the Astros paying Ausmus more for this contract than for the last one?  Is he going to get better over the next two years?  Where was Ausmus going?  San Diego is more than set at catcher.

Inflation, and the fact that the pitching staff REALLY wants Ausmus back, so you show that you treat YOUR players right.  That inspires people to want to play for you.  It also inspires people who are trying to prove something into wanting to play for less for you knowing you will reward them down the line for it (if you actually show value).

[HudsonHawk]

Quote:

And while I'm ranting, why are the Astros paying Ausmus more for this contract than for the last one?  Is he going to get better over the next two years?  Where was Ausmus going?  San Diego is more than set at catcher.

Why do you have a problem with how much Ausmus is making?  Do you think that paying him will mean they cannot pay someone else?  When has Drayton ever refused to pay  a reasonable price for a player who could help because of what he's paying other players?

[toddthebod]

Yes, Hudson, that is exactly what I think.  The Astros are working on a tight bugdet, at least that's what they are saying.  It's a zero-sum game.  Whatever goes to Ausmus isn't available to pay someone else.

[Ty in Tampa]

It's clearly idiotic for a major league GM to lock up a known commodity at catcher, who undoubtedly helped the staff all year as well as the offense in the second half of the season. He's the crazy one, not you.

[MusicMan]

This is when I miss the old AC threaded view... a simple reply of "YES (nm)" would have sufficed.

[HudsonHawk]

Quote:
Yes, Hudson, that is exactly what I think.  The Astros are working on a tight bugdet, at least that's what they are saying.  It's a zero-sum game.  Whatever goes to Ausmus isn't available to pay someone else.

When has Drayton ever refused to pay a reasonable price for an available player because of budget constraints?

[BudGirl]

Quote:
Yes, Hudson, that is exactly what I think.  The Astros are working on a tight bugdet, at least that's what they are saying.  It's a zero-sum game.  Whatever goes to Ausmus isn't available to pay someone else.

Why wouldn't Drayton alter his budget if he decided the team needed a certain player?

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Quote:

Lifting weights doesn't equal being able to play the field or even hit well.  I hope he comes back, but the Astros need a back-up plan.

Agreed, but before surgery Bagwell couldn't lift weights because of the pain, he also couldn't throw or hit without pain. The fact that after surgery he is lifting without the pain, is encouraging, and leads one to optimistically hope that the hitting and throwing will follow course. Still, it's always wise to have a contingency plan... just in case anything goes wrong.

[pravata]

Quote:

Quote:
Yes, Hudson, that is exactly what I think.  The Astros are working on a tight bugdet, at least that's what they are saying.  It's a zero-sum game.  Whatever goes to Ausmus isn't available to pay someone else.

Why wouldn't Drayton alter his budget if he decided the team needed a certain player?

And in fact he is.  If he was a cheap bastard, White or Garciaparra wouldnt even be a consideration.  He'd wait to see on Bagwell, and if that turned out bad, play Lamb at first.

[HudsonHawk]

Quote:

Why wouldn't Drayton alter his budget if he decided the team needed a certain player?

Furthermore, when has he ever refused to do this?  People whine all the time about how Drayton refuses to pay players, usually in the very same rant in which they're complaining about him paying players too much.  Yes, Drayton tries to work within a budget, but he's shown time and time again he's got no problem with opening up to pay players worth paying.  When he comes out and says "I'd like to sign Player X, All-Star, but I can't because I'm paying Brad Ausmus $4 million", then there will be a legitimate gripe.

[Andyzipp]

Quote:
And while I'm ranting, why are the Astros paying Ausmus more for this contract than for the last one?  Is he going to get better over the next two years?  Where was Ausmus going?  San Diego is more than set at catcher.

San Diego was more than set at catcher and they offered Ausmus a contract anyway.

[pravata]

Catchers, who started last season, that will make less than Ausmus in 06: AJ Pierzynski, Gregg Zaun, Brian Scheider, Mike Matheny, Joe Mauer, Toby Hall, John Buck, Rod Barajas, Damian Miller.  Were any of these catchers available?  The DRays apparently tried to trade Hall to the Mets for Aaron Heilman.  That's his asking price.

[Arky Vaughan]

Quote:
Catchers, who started last season, that will make less than Ausmus in 06: AJ Pierzynski, Gregg Zaun, Brian Scheider, Mike Matheny, Joe Mauer, Toby Hall, John Buck, Rod Barajas, Damian Miller.  Were any of these catchers available?  The DRays apparently tried to trade Hall to the Mets for Aaron Heilman.  That's his asking price.

I think people worry way too much about "overpaying" veterans who earn less than $5 million. Yes, if you pay too many guys at that rate when you could've replaced them for far less, you'll get into trouble. But that's not the big glut on most payrolls.  It's the long-term deals in excess of $5 million or even $10 million that clog up the payroll.

Put it this way: the difference between Ausmus' $3.75 million in 2006 and another starting catcher willing to take $1 million (who probably doesn't exist anyway) would save the Astros $2.75 million, which is about what it takes to sign a couple of utility players.  That money isn't the difference between signing a big name and not.

It's the equivalent of worrying about the price difference between the generic and name-brand milk when you've got caviar, filet mignon and cognac in your shopping basket.

[Holly]

Try clicking on the "threaded" button in the top right corner of the screen

[toddthebod]

In past years, that $2.7 million would have been enough money to get a high-quality reliever.  This year, it's still a little short.  I don't begrudge Ausmus the money.  It's just a little strange that a 37 year old catcher is getting a pay raise.  And as for the pitchers loving Ausmus, the most outspoken of them isn't even with the team right now and may not be with the team in May either.

[HudsonHawk]

Quote:
In past years, that $2.7 million would have been enough money to get a high-quality reliever.  

What high quality releiver was available at $2.7 million that the Astros didn't sign because of payroll constraints?

[BudGirl]

Quote:
In past years, that $2.7 million would have been enough money to get a high-quality reliever.  This year, it's still a little short.  I don't begrudge Ausmus the money.  It's just a little strange that a 37 year old catcher is getting a pay raise.  And as for the pitchers loving Ausmus, the most outspoken of them isn't even with the team right now and may not be with the team in May either.

I thought Oswalt has stated he liked Ausmus also?  I know Zeke isn't "top of the line" pitching, but he also stated hed liked Ausmus catching for him.

[pravata]

Quote:

Quote:
In past years, that $2.7 million would have been enough money to get a high-quality reliever.  This year, it's still a little short.  I don't begrudge Ausmus the money.  It's just a little strange that a 37 year old catcher is getting a pay raise.  And as for the pitchers loving Ausmus, the most outspoken of them isn't even with the team right now and may not be with the team in May either.

I thought Oswalt has stated he liked Ausmus also?  I know Zeke isn't "top of the line" pitching, but he also stated hed liked Ausmus catching for him.

Also Pettitte and Lidge

Pettitte explained, a catcher is not just a statue behind the plate calling balls and strikes. "...He does a great job of realizing the pressure we're under." ...

"It's important not just to have someone like him, but him," closer Brad Lidge said

The Link

[pravata]

Quote:

Quote:
In past years, that $2.7 million would have been enough money to get a high-quality reliever.  This year, it's still a little short.  I don't begrudge Ausmus the money.  It's just a little strange that a 37 year old catcher is getting a pay raise.  And as for the pitchers loving Ausmus, the most outspoken of them isn't even with the team right now and may not be with the team in May either.

I thought Oswalt has stated he liked Ausmus also?  I know Zeke isn't "top of the line" pitching, but he also stated hed liked Ausmus catching for him.

Roy got irritated when they let Chavez go.  They were going to pair him with Q, but he insisted on Ausmus.

[CJM]

Quote:
It's just a little strange that a 37 year old catcher is getting a pay raise.

It seems the Astros feel Ausmus' play warranted the pay raise, he did put together a nice season in '05 (.350+ OBP in addition to his defense).  As far as him being 37, I don't see why that should impact him getting a raise.  Ausmus has not shown any signs of breaking down physically, quite the opposite.  He has been one of the most durable catchers in baseball (no trips to the DL) and he seems to be immune from wearing down towards the end of the season (kinda immpresive when you look at the number of games he catches).

[Arky Vaughan]

Quote:
In past years, that $2.7 million would have been enough money to get a high-quality reliever.  This year, it's still a little short.  I don't begrudge Ausmus the money.  It's just a little strange that a 37 year old catcher is getting a pay raise.  And as for the pitchers loving Ausmus, the most outspoken of them isn't even with the team right now and may not be with the team in May either.

This is economically illogical. It's not as if the Astros said, "Brad, you've done such a good job, we're going to give you a raise."  If they could've re-signed Ausmus for what he was previously paid, I'm sure they would've done so.  The options weren't (1) paying Ausmus something up to his old salary or (2) giving Ausmus a raise. The options were re-signing Ausmus at the price they did or finding another starting catcher.

So comparing his contract to what he made last season has no bearing on the situation. The question is whether they could've gotten something else comparable or better for significantly less money. In the real world -- as opposed to Internet fantasy land, where we can speculate that the Astros are able to sign or trade for any catcher in existence -- I'm not sure they could've, but since you're raising the issue, I leave it to you to explain the realistic alternatives that they passed up.

As for the bullpen, I don't know how many times this has to be explained, since it is demonstrated every season: I don't think you can rely on small signings to bolster your bullpen. It's a waste of money. A bullpen is about having enough live arms to distill which ones are having a good year and which ones are not, and then playing the hot hand.

[BudGirl]

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:
In past years, that $2.7 million would have been enough money to get a high-quality reliever.  This year, it's still a little short.  I don't begrudge Ausmus the money.  It's just a little strange that a 37 year old catcher is getting a pay raise.  And as for the pitchers loving Ausmus, the most outspoken of them isn't even with the team right now and may not be with the team in May either.

I thought Oswalt has stated he liked Ausmus also?  I know Zeke isn't "top of the line" pitching, but he also stated he liked Ausmus catching for him.

Roy got irritated when they let Chavez go.  They were going to pair him with Q, but he insisted on Ausmus.

Didn't his ERA go down after Ausmus started catching him???

[toddthebod]

Obviously, I was not part of the negotiations, but I think that the Astros overpaid for Ausmus, particularly because the only other team that was even talking about Ausmus, the Padres, have three catchers:  Ross, Mirabelli, and Olivo.  Plus, this is a two year contract and he is a 37 year old catcher.  Ausmus is in tremendous condition, but I think that this was a poor gamble.  I think the Astros were bidding against themselves -- although as I said before, I wasn't part of the negotiations.

And I disagree about relievers.  There are relievers who are consistently good and they cost money.  If you don't want to go down that route, which the Astros have not done, then you can bring in a lot of pitchers and hope that one of them catches fire.  But it's not just relievers, if the Astros can't get the hitter that they need either now or at the trading deadline and the reason is that the the player just costs too much, $5 million was okay, $8 million is too much, the money that we are paying Ausmus will be missed.

[Jacksonian]

Quote:
But it's not just relievers, if the Astros can't get the hitter that they need either now or at the trading deadline and the reason is that the the player just costs too much, $5 million was okay, $8 million is too much, the money that we are paying Ausmus will be missed.

I don't believe that will be an issue.  Drayton has consistently upped the payroll as necessary to bring in a player the org feels will be helpful.  The only way I see the Astros making the sort of move you describe based on a few million dollars in salary is if there is a significant injury risk with the player, like Garciaparra or White.

[HudsonHawk]

Quote:
Obviously, I was not part of the negotiations, but I think that the Astros overpaid for Ausmus, particularly because the only other team that was even talking about Ausmus, the Padres, have three catchers:  Ross, Mirabelli, and Olivo.

So what you're really upset about is not how much they're paying Ausmus, but that they didn't lowball him when they had the chance.  Nice.

Quote:

But it's not just relievers, if the Astros can't get the hitter that they need either now or at the trading deadline and the reason is that the the player just costs too much, $5 million was okay, $8 million is too much, the money that we are paying Ausmus will be missed.

Again, you keep saying this, that the Astros will simply run out of money and that will keep them from signing a quality player.  But when has this ever happened?  Why do you think this will happen now?  You can make up hypothetical situations in your mind to validate your opinion, but where is it grounded in reality?

[Arky Vaughan]

Quote:
Obviously, I was not part of the negotiations, but I think that the Astros overpaid for Ausmus, particularly because the only other team that was even talking about Ausmus, the Padres, have three catchers:  Ross, Mirabelli, and Olivo.  Plus, this is a two year contract and he is a 37 year old catcher.  Ausmus is in tremendous condition, but I think that this was a poor gamble.  I think the Astros were bidding against themselves -- although as I said before, I wasn't part of the negotiations.

I suppose the Astros could've played hardball and told Ausmus we're not signing you for any more than what you made in 2005, taking the risk that he wouldn't be going anywhere else since San Diego already has three catchers. But he still made $3 million in 2005, so that would only have saved $750,000 -- the price of a couple of guys at the league minimum. Plus, regardless of what we speculate Ausmus' bargaining power to be, the fact remains that had he walked, they would've then been in negotiations with somebody else. That is, unless they'd be happy with Chavez or Quintero starting. And how much do you think they could've saved acquiring another veteran starting catcher?

Quote:
And I disagree about relievers.  There are relievers who are consistently good and they cost money.  If you don't want to go down that route, which the Astros have not done, then you can bring in a lot of pitchers and hope that one of them catches fire.

Note that I mentioned "small signings." I agree entirely that there are consistently good relievers, and they cost a lot more than the difference between signing Ausmus and signing someone else. The likelihood that the Astros are going to sign a reliver making $5 million or more, which are the kinds of guys you're talking about, are very slim.

Relievers fall roughly into three groups, as far as I'm concerned: (1) the studs, who cost a lot of money but are consistently good, (2) the veteran journey men, who are relatively cheap and may be good or not depending on the alignment of the stars, and (3) the untested young pitchers, who are cheap and unknown quantities. If you really want to build a reliable, good bullpen, you can load up on (1), but it's going to cost you a lot more than the Astros "overpaid" for Ausmus. The Astros were almost certainly going to go with a mix of (2) and (3) anyway, so I think Ausmus' contract is a red herring in this regard.

Quote:
But it's not just relievers, if the Astros can't get the hitter that they need either now or at the trading deadline and the reason is that the the player just costs too much, $5 million was okay, $8 million is too much, the money that we are paying Ausmus will be missed.

So you're willing to go with a $750,000 catcher (who do you think that might be?) on the chance that the Astros will otherwise be willing to pay $5 million but not $8 million for a free agent or a trade? That seems like a pretty poor gamble, accepting virtually a guaranteed downgrade at a key defensive position on the chance that McLane won't cough up another $3 million if he sees somebody really good.

I'd like to see the list of $750,000 catchers that the Astros could realistically have acquired in order to determine whether this was an acceptable risk. Do you have one?

We're quibbling about something less than 4 percent of the payroll here. If that's what's going to make or break the 2006 Astros, then they're a little too scary for me to watch.

[pravata]

Quote:
Obviously, I was not part of the negotiations, but I think that the Astros overpaid for Ausmus, ...

Ausmus obviously thought San Diego was an option.  He was involved in the negotiations, or is he just not as informed as you are?  AGAIN, these are the only starting catchers from last season that will make less than Ausmus in 06: AJ Pierzynski, Gregg Zaun, Brian Scheider, Mike Matheny, Joe Mauer, Toby Hall, John Buck, Rod Barajas, Damian Miller.

[Arky Vaughan]

Here are the salaries of veteran catchers who started more than 90 games last year (i.e., excluding catchers with less than six years' service time):

Ramon Hernandez, $4.3 million
Javy Lopez, $7.5 million
Damian Miller, $3.25 million
Jason LaRue, $3 million
Brian Schneider, $2 million
Mike Piazza, $16 million
Bengie Molina, $3 million
Mike Lieberthal, $7.5 million
Michael Barrett, $3.1 million
Rod Barajas, $1.85 million
Brad Ausmus, $3 million
Paul Lo Duca, $4.6 million
Gregg Zaun, $950,000
Toby Hall, $1.95 million
A.J. Pierzynski, $2.25 million
Ivan Rodriguez, $8 million
Jorge Posada, $11 million
Mike Matheny, $2 million
Jason Varitek, $8 million
Jason Kendall, $10.6 million