Author Topic: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY  (Read 18959 times)

HurricaneDavid

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Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« on: November 07, 2005, 03:06:18 pm »
According to MLB radio.
"Ground ball right side, they're not gonna be able to turn two OR ARE THEY, THROW, IS IN TIME!!! WHAT AN UNBELIEVABLE TURN BY BRUNTLETT AND EVERETT, AND THEY CUT DOWN MABRY TO END THE GAME, AND THE ASTROS LEAD THIS NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES THREE GAMES TO ONE!!!!!"

NeilT

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2005, 03:07:47 pm »
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2005, 03:09:52 pm »
Can't say I'm surprised.  Willy T deserved it but Howard put up awesome numbers in his shortened season.  He should develop into a superb hitter and a great heir to the Thomenator.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2005, 03:12:57 pm »
I was certainly rooting for Willy, and I thought he had a great shot at it (playing a full season counts for something), but I can't say I'm surprised. Howard did well this year, and he deserves it.
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nlu4ever

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2005, 03:12:58 pm »
I hate to say it but did anyone really think Willy T would get the ROY...

He plays for the Astros and he didn't have the power numbers.  If either changed he might have had a chance, both = no chance.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2005, 03:17:23 pm »
i did. i guess i'm stupider than ever.
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HurricaneDavid

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2005, 03:21:00 pm »
Quote:

I hate to say it but did anyone really think Willy T would get the ROY...




After winning both player votes?  Yes.
"Ground ball right side, they're not gonna be able to turn two OR ARE THEY, THROW, IS IN TIME!!! WHAT AN UNBELIEVABLE TURN BY BRUNTLETT AND EVERETT, AND THEY CUT DOWN MABRY TO END THE GAME, AND THE ASTROS LEAD THIS NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES THREE GAMES TO ONE!!!!!"

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2005, 03:23:05 pm »
Quote:

I hate to say it but did anyone really think Willy T would get the ROY...




I did.  And the players thought he was ROY too.  Oh well...  Here's hoping he develops a little more power.  He could become quite a weapon.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2005, 03:29:10 pm »
i thought he would win as well. oh well, congrats to howard; he had great numbers in 88 games

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #9 on: November 07, 2005, 03:33:27 pm »
 
Quote:

Here's hoping he develops a little more power. He could become quite a weapon.
 





on my lists of "hopes" about Willy T, getting more power falls somewhere between him learning to play catcher and learning how to climb the flag pole in center field to steal home runs.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2005, 03:34:39 pm »
exactly. more power is the last thing he needs.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #11 on: November 07, 2005, 03:43:56 pm »
Quote:

I hate to say it but did anyone really think Willy T would get the ROY...

He plays for the Astros and he didn't have the power numbers.  If either changed he might have had a chance, both = no chance.





Of course I did.  I don't understand how anyone would not.  Your qualifiers don't make sense.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2005, 03:54:50 pm »
Quote:

exactly. more power is the last thing he needs.




Maybe I mis-stated what I meant.  I don't mean HR power (although that would be nice if it happened), I mean power like he showed flashes of in the playoffs.  Doubles, triples into the gaps.  I just want to see a few more line drives and a few fewer dribblers.  Don't get me wrong, I love Willy T.

(And it's surely not the  last thing he needs, is it?)

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #13 on: November 07, 2005, 03:58:37 pm »
the very last thing. i hope he never hits another HR.

he was a gap hitter in RR. he needs plate discipline and a willingness to accept walks. nothing else.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2005, 03:58:43 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

exactly. more power is the last thing he needs.




Maybe I mis-stated what I meant.  I don't mean HR power (although that would be nice if it happened), I mean power like he showed flashes of in the playoffs.  Doubles, triples into the gaps.  I just want to see a few more line drives and a few fewer dribblers.  Don't get me wrong, I love Willy T.

(And it's surely not the  last thing he needs, is it?)




Just ahead of a sharp stick in the eye.  The last thing he needs is to try for more power numbers.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2005, 04:12:07 pm »
Quote:

the very last thing. i hope he never hits another HR.




Would an inside-the-parker be ok?

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2005, 04:17:09 pm »
yep. he can hit 75 of them.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2005, 04:17:40 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

exactly. more power is the last thing he needs.




Maybe I mis-stated what I meant.  I don't mean HR power (although that would be nice if it happened), I mean power like he showed flashes of in the playoffs.  Doubles, triples into the gaps.  I just want to see a few more line drives and a few fewer dribblers.  Don't get me wrong, I love Willy T.

(And it's surely not the  last thing he needs, is it?)





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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2005, 04:31:06 pm »
Quote:

the very last thing. i hope he never hits another HR.

he was a gap hitter in RR. he needs plate discipline and a willingness to accept walks. nothing else.





I would really like to see him improve his bunting. I'd like to see him push the bunt down the first base line sometimes.
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nlu4ever

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2005, 04:45:18 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

I hate to say it but did anyone really think Willy T would get the ROY...

He plays for the Astros and he didn't have the power numbers.  If either changed he might have had a chance, both = no chance.





Of course I did.  I don't understand how anyone would not.  Your qualifiers don't make sense.




The basis of my remarks is

1. Playing for the Astros seems to be a minus in most of the sportswriters eyes for awards. (IMHO)
2. In the sportwriters eyes the only thing that truly matters is the power numbers. (Again IMHO)

Did I want Willy T to win...hell yeah.  Was I optomistic about it...yes.  Am I suprised about the outcome...NO.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2005, 04:54:13 pm »
Quote:


1. Playing for the Astros seems to be a minus in most of the sportswriters eyes for awards. (IMHO)





What Astros have been passed up for which awards that subsequently went to undeserving non-Astros?
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #21 on: November 07, 2005, 04:56:22 pm »
Quote:

1. Playing for the Astros seems to be a minus in most of the sportswriters eyes for awards. (IMHO)




I would disagree. While players in more visible markets might get a little more attention, if an Astros' player has a good season, they'll get recognized. Clemens won the Cy Young last year as Exhibit A. The problem is that the Astros haven't had many players that simply exploded in certain years. The times that they did, they were rewarded (Scott in 86, Bagwell in 94, Clemens in 04). Sometimes it could be argued that an Astro didn't get it when he deserved it, but the player that did get it was often just as deserving.

Quote:

2. In the sportwriters eyes the only thing that truly matters is the power numbers. (Again IMHO)




Again, I disagree. There's no doubt that they pay closer attention to HR than SB, but that's not the only thing they see. Postseason awards can't be simplified that much. After all, Willy did get  7 first place votes, despite having virtually no power. Another example that comes to mind is Ichiro winning the 2001 AL ROY and MVP with very little power.
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JimR

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #22 on: November 07, 2005, 04:58:02 pm »
WFW, nlu
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nlu4ever

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #23 on: November 07, 2005, 05:16:58 pm »
Not arguing others weren't as or more deserving, just an observation and opinion of my own.  

The ROY this year is something I disagree with, just like when Roy Oswalt didn't win it.  I personally don't think that a player that has played half of the season should win.  Again, my opinion.  

And as far as Ichiro winning the 2001 AL ROY, you can never convince me that a player that has that much time in Japan pro baseball is a ROOKIE.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #24 on: November 07, 2005, 05:20:06 pm »
Quote:

Not arguing others weren't as or more deserving, just an observation and opinion of my own.  





Well then on what are you basing your observation?
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #25 on: November 07, 2005, 05:35:39 pm »
Quote:

The ROY this year is something I disagree with, just like when Roy Oswalt didn't win it.  




We all love Roy, but do you really think that 2/3 season of Roy (missing the last couple of weeks, I might add) should have beaten out Albert Pujols, who had one of the best rookie seasons ever, at the plate.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #26 on: November 07, 2005, 05:35:47 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Not arguing others weren't as or more deserving, just an observation and opinion of my own.  





Well then on what are you basing your observation?





Maybe observation should have been left out.  I believe that Willy T should have been the ROY, I also believe that Roy Oswalt should have been ROY.  

I have also noticed (observed?) over the last 10 years or better that no matter how well the Astros do or an Astros player plays (outside of maybe Clemens), the vast majority of the sports pundits only give off-handed praise.  

Again, this is my own personal observations/opinions...maybe I have a slanted view..

Hell I know I have a slanted view.  I am an Astros fan through and through.  Hell, I bleed orange or if you like, mud and blood.  

My opinion is that as far as the sports pundits go, the Astros will never be equal the Cardinals or hell even the Cubs as far as Respect goes.  I don't like it but that is the way I see it.

Flame away, guys.  Again, these are my personal opinions...neither right nor wrong...just opinions.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #27 on: November 07, 2005, 05:42:38 pm »
right i think pujols received all first place votes; was not really close

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #28 on: November 07, 2005, 05:46:17 pm »
Quote:


Maybe observation should have been left out.  I believe that Willy T should have been the ROY, I also believe that Roy Oswalt should have been ROY.  





So by Howard winning it over Taveras, and Albert Pujols (when he hit .329/.403/.610 37 HRs and 130 RBIs) winning it over Oswalt, in your eyes, that means the Astros get no respect?
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #29 on: November 07, 2005, 05:52:23 pm »
no respect--WAH--no respect

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #30 on: November 07, 2005, 05:58:25 pm »
Quote:

And as far as Ichiro winning the 2001 AL ROY, you can never convince me that a player that has that much time in Japan pro baseball is a ROOKIE.




My main point bringing up Ichiro was his MVP award with only 8 HR. Say what you will about Japanese players winning the ROY, which I don't have a problem with, but the MVP is the MVP, Japan experience or not.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #31 on: November 07, 2005, 06:00:09 pm »
I bow to your un-erring logic.  I forgot I am not allowed opinions that don't match yours.  Teach me oh great learned one.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #32 on: November 07, 2005, 07:09:34 pm »
Although I don't really care, I like our guys to get their own individual accolades...and willy did by getting the players' award.  

bottom line though: willy played in the World Series, Howard sat at home.

The only individual award by a Houston player that means anything at all to me is maybe Hakeem's mvp...he was unstoppable that year (and many many others)

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #33 on: November 07, 2005, 09:04:23 pm »
I would have liked to see Willy win but gotta admit R. Howard's numbers were impressive and he's very deserving. Don't think there's any bias toward power numbers per se, but a guy that hits around .285 with about so many infield hits and a OBP around .315 or so is just not that valuable unless he can drive in some runs. Willy drove in less than 30, I think. Anyway, I think Willy has a chance to develop into a good CF for us, but he has to learn to get on base more and not strike out so much.

By the way, I'm new here and from reading some posts it appears to me that this is a pretty agressive place. If you don't do your homework and look up stats and read treatises on baseball history and strategy before you post, someone will call you out and rip you a new one. So, before you guys take me to task ... the paragraph above is just my opinion and the stats I quoted are estimates, I have not douuble checked them. If I got something wrong, I apologize.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #34 on: November 07, 2005, 09:41:53 pm »
Quote:

By the way, I'm new here and from reading some posts it appears to me that this is a pretty agressive place. If you don't do your homework .....




Understatement of the year.

And you misspelled aggressive, too.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #35 on: November 07, 2005, 09:43:32 pm »
Or, just don't pretend that your opinions are above reproach, and you'll be fine.

HudsonHawk

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #36 on: November 07, 2005, 10:00:58 pm »
Quote:


By the way, I'm new here and from reading some posts it appears to me that this is a pretty agressive place. If you don't do your homework and look up stats and read treatises on baseball history and strategy before you post, someone will call you out and rip you a new one. So, before you guys take me to task ... the paragraph above is just my opinion and the stats I quoted are estimates, I have not douuble checked them. If I got something wrong, I apologize.





Everyone has opinions.  But if you're going to throw yours out for public consumption, expect them to be scrutinized.  As long as you're cool with that, all will be fine.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #37 on: November 07, 2005, 10:22:27 pm »
Quote:

Quote:


By the way, I'm new here and from reading some posts it appears to me that this is a pretty agressive place. If you don't do your homework and look up stats and read treatises on baseball history and strategy before you post, someone will call you out and rip you a new one. So, before you guys take me to task ... the paragraph above is just my opinion and the stats I quoted are estimates, I have not douuble checked them. If I got something wrong, I apologize.





Everyone has opinions.  But if you're going to throw yours out for public consumption, expect them to be scrutinized.  As long as you're cool with that, all will be fine.





Agreed.  Not the first time I have been slapped because I couldn't back up my opinion with enough facts...probably won't be the last.  But it is all good.  Next time I will have a few more facts before I make statements like I did.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #38 on: November 07, 2005, 10:56:53 pm »
Hey, I'm cool with that. I have a lot of opinions on baseball stuff and I have been absolutely wrong many, many  times. I've been right my fair share too. That's the beauty of this game. Nothing I say is anywhere near above reproach, so, scrutinize away. Anyway, you guys are a tough crowd ... I get the feeling this is not the place to come for leisurely discussions about baseball. And, on top of that you count off for spelling. Yikes, I better stay on my toes.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #39 on: November 07, 2005, 11:42:11 pm »
Quote:

Quote:


1. Playing for the Astros seems to be a minus in most of the sportswriters eyes for awards. (IMHO)





What Astros have been passed up for which awards that subsequently went to undeserving non-Astros?





I remember feeling at the time that Bagwell really got screwed out of the 1999 MVP. Just looked up the stats:
player____R  2B HR  RBI BB SB  AVG  OBP SLG
Bagwell: 143 35 42 126 149 30 .304 .454 .591
Chipper: 116 41 45 110 126 25 .319 .441 .633

Bags played in the Dome with the likes of Sean Berry for protection; Derek Bell seriously fell off that year, IIRC. I don't remember who else had great years for the Braves, but it seems like Chipper had a few big games in September to stave off the Mets, and sentiment won him the MVP. One thing's for sure: that is a fuckload of runs and walks.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #40 on: November 07, 2005, 11:45:04 pm »
Quote:

Hey, I'm cool with that. I have a lot of opinions on baseball stuff and I have been absolutely wrong many, many  times. I've been right my fair share too. That's the beauty of this game. Nothing I say is anywhere near above reproach, so, scrutinize away. Anyway, you guys are a tough crowd ... I get the feeling this is not the place to come for leisurely discussions about baseball. And, on top of that you count off for spelling. Yikes, I better stay on my toes.




Leisurely is OK, poorly thought out will likely get you in trouble.  And we do count off for spelling.  Except for Noe.  And Pravata.  As long as he remembers to put his pants on, that's all we can ask.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #41 on: November 07, 2005, 11:50:49 pm »
Hawk ...

Looks like you missed my Zeppelin reference. You are not as astute as I thought!

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #42 on: November 07, 2005, 11:51:43 pm »
Quote:

Hawk ...

Looks like you missed my Zeppelin reference. You are not as astute as I thought!





???  What did I miss?
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #43 on: November 08, 2005, 12:03:38 am »
Quote:

And we do count off for spelling.  Except for Noe.  And Pravata.  As long as he remembers to put his pants on, that's all we can ask.




Fredia? (the spelling, not the pants...)
Oye. Vamos, vamos.

shortstop

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #44 on: November 08, 2005, 12:39:58 am »
Quote:

Quote:

Hawk ...

Looks like you missed my Zeppelin reference. You are not as astute as I thought!





???  What did I miss?





"Hangman, hangman, hold it a little while
I think I see my friends comin', ridin' many a mile
Ah ... friends, ya get some silver, d'ya get a little gold
Ah ... what did ya bring me, my dear friends
to keep me from the gallows pole
What did ya bring me, keep me from the gallows pole"

Lyrics from Gallows Pole ...

Are you a Zep fan ... or just posing?

astrox

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #45 on: November 08, 2005, 03:37:52 am »
Being that Hawk's avatar is of Houses of the Holy, perhaps a reference to No Quarter would have been more in order.

Speaking of...

Today is a very special day, for it was on this day exactly 34 years ago that the world was changed forever.  On that day, the heavens opened up and a bright ray sprang forth at the speed of, well, light.  That light shone brightly upon this fair land and a choir of angels could be heard singing in glorious harmony for something truly magnificent had been born on this day, November 8, 1971.

That, my friends, was Led Zeppelin's untitled fourth album.  Wrapped in a humble sleeve containing nary a hint of the artist, it was Zeppelin's finger to the industry who insisted that only because of their name would an album sell.

Oh baby it's cryin' time.
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HudsonHawk

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #46 on: November 08, 2005, 09:38:32 am »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Hawk ...

Looks like you missed my Zeppelin reference. You are not as astute as I thought!





???  What did I miss?




"Hangman, hangman, hold it a little while
I think I see my friends comin', ridin' many a mile
Ah ... friends, ya get some silver, d'ya get a little gold
Ah ... what did ya bring me, my dear friends
to keep me from the gallows pole
What did ya bring me, keep me from the gallows pole"

Lyrics from Gallows Pole ...

Are you a Zep fan ... or just posing?




I didn't miss it.  Was I supposed to do something with it?
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

Andyzipp

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #47 on: November 08, 2005, 09:56:38 am »
Lyrics aren't a reference.  They're fucking lyrics.

I really liked All In the Family, but if you posted the lyrics to Those Were The Days, I don't think it'd get a response.

Trey

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #48 on: November 08, 2005, 10:11:41 am »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:


1. Playing for the Astros seems to be a minus in most of the sportswriters eyes for awards. (IMHO)





What Astros have been passed up for which awards that subsequently went to undeserving non-Astros?




I remember feeling at the time that Bagwell really got screwed out of the 1999 MVP. Just looked up the stats:
player____R  2B HR  RBI BB SB  AVG  OBP SLG
Bagwell: 143 35 42 126 149 30 .304 .454 .591
Chipper: 116 41 45 110 126 25 .319 .441 .633

Bags played in the Dome with the likes of Sean Berry for protection; Derek Bell seriously fell off that year, IIRC. I don't remember who else had great years for the Braves, but it seems like Chipper had a few big games in September to stave off the Mets, and sentiment won him the MVP. One thing's for sure: that is a fuckload of runs and walks.




If I remember correctly, Chippah and Bagwell were neck and neck for the award going into the end of the season.  The Braves came to town and Larry Wayne basically beat the Astros by himself, which I think pretty much locked up the MVP for him.
Let me explain something to you. Um, I am not "Mr. Lebowski". You're Mr. Lebowski. I'm the Dude. So that's what you call me. You know, that or, uh, His Dudeness, or uh, Duder, or El Duderino if you're not into the whole brevity thing.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #49 on: November 08, 2005, 10:57:03 am »
Quote:

Being that Hawk's avatar is of Houses of the Holy, perhaps a reference to No Quarter would have been more in order.

Speaking of...

Today is a very special day, for it was on this day exactly 34 years ago that the world was changed forever.  On that day, the heavens opened up and a bright ray sprang forth at the speed of, well, light.  That light shone brightly upon this fair land and a choir of angels could be heard singing in glorious harmony for something truly magnificent had been born on this day, November 8, 1971.

That, my friends, was Led Zeppelin's untitled fourth album.  Wrapped in a humble sleeve containing nary a hint of the artist, it was Zeppelin's finger to the industry who insisted that only because of their name would an album sell.

Oh baby it's cryin' time.





I thought you were talking about your birthday at first.  Happy Birthday.
''I just did an interview with someone I like more than you. I used a lot of big words on him. I don't have anything left for you.'' --Brad Ausmus

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shortstop

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #50 on: November 08, 2005, 11:19:29 am »
A truly special day it is, astrox ...

"Hey, hey, mama, said the way you move, gonna make you sweat, gonna make you groove.
Oh, oh, child, way you shake that thing, gonna make you burn, gonna make you sting.
Hey, hey, baby, when you walk that way, watch your honey drip, can't keep away."

pravata

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #51 on: November 08, 2005, 11:38:26 am »
Quote:

I would have liked to see Willy win but gotta admit R. Howard's numbers were impressive and he's very deserving. Don't think there's any bias toward power numbers per se, but a guy that hits around .285 with about so many infield hits and a OBP around .315 or so is just not that valuable unless he can drive in some runs. Willy drove in less than 30, I think. Anyway, I think Willy has a chance to develop into a good CF for us, but he has to learn to get on base more and not strike out so much.

By the way, I'm new here and from reading some posts it appears to me that this is a pretty agressive place. If you don't do your homework and look up stats and read treatises on baseball history and strategy before you post, someone will call you out and rip you a new one. So, before you guys take me to task ... the paragraph above is just my opinion and the stats I quoted are estimates, I have not douuble checked them. If I got something wrong, I apologize.





Possibly the most valuable position on the Astros is a good defensive centerfield.  MMPUS is brutal on lousy centerfielders and it affects the pitchers.  Ignoring the odd, and some were really odd, misjudged fly, Taveras nailed that spot down.  Crucial, and we've seen this before, to the Astros run.  

As for a posting being just an "opinion", expect nada slack.  Either it's your opinion that you love and cherish, in which case you should only share with your mom; if it's posted here, for a test run so to speak, expect it to come back with a couple dings.  We are the shopping carts in the parking lot of the Opinion-Mart.

shortstop

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #52 on: November 08, 2005, 12:02:27 pm »
Allright, have it your way.

Thats a good example of an opinion that needs a healthy dinging. "Possibly the most valuable position on the Astros is a good defensive centerfield." More valuable than starting pitching? More valuable than a solid closer? More valuable than a catcher or SS? More valuable than run producers? A good defensive CF is valuable, but only if he can contribute something offensively. The minor leagues are chock full of good defensive CFs ... better defensively than Willy T. But if they cannot contribute something offensively, they won't get a sniff in the majors. The same can be said for Willy. I like Willy and if he continues to improve offensively and defensively (there were a few too many of those odd flyballs), he'll be very valuable. If he doesn't ... he'll go the way of the countless speedy-no offense CFs baseball has seen.  

pravata

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #53 on: November 08, 2005, 12:07:30 pm »
Quote:

Allright, have it your way.

Thats a good example of an opinion that needs a healthy dinging. "Possibly the most valuable position on the Astros is a good defensive centerfield." More valuable than starting pitching? More valuable than a solid closer? More valuable than a catcher or SS? More valuable than run producers? A good defensive CF is valuable, but only if he can contribute something offensively. The minor leagues are chock full of good defensive CFs ... better defensively than Willy T. But if they cannot contribute something offensively, they won't get a sniff in the majors. The same can be said for Willy. I like Willy and if he continues to improve offensively and defensively (there were a few too many of those odd flyballs), he'll be very valuable. If he doesn't ... he'll go the way of the countless speedy-no offense CFs baseball has seen.  





Absolutely.  Especially with the crazy wide open spaces of MMPUS. (And by the way, this opinion has been through the belgian blocks, the hair pin turn and the cones, it's road tested.) Consider the Astros before and after Carlos Beltran in 2004.  Pay close attention to his offensive stats, compare that to what happened to the pitching during The Run.  Fewer balls dropped in center.  You can look it up.  Shortstop is crucial, catching is essential, but the dimensions of these positions don't change.  As for "a few too many", you're possibly giving more weight to the beginning of the season, (Taveras very rookie) than to the end of the season (Taveras had seen all the ballparks).

shortstop

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #54 on: November 08, 2005, 12:28:49 pm »
I'm with you on all that, but I thought you said a good defensive CF was the most valuable position. The key is that Willy be able to contribute more offensively. Citing Beltran as an example is too easy. He was a legitimate stud defensively, at the plate and on the bases. Hence the bzillion dollar pricetag. Don't you think a better comparison would be guys like Gerald Young, Tony Scott from the Dome days (I know the Dome was symetrical, but there was a lot of room out there for a CF to cover). I really did not consider them that valuable and they offer about the same skill package as Willy T. seems to have right now. Actually, they might have been better at getting on base, but I don't know for sure about that. How about Terry Puhl ... he was very valuable, but he hit so much better than Willy that is bprobably not a fair comparison either. What if Willy T. has a second year like Corey Patterson in Chicago? Will he still be so valuable then? I guess my point is that I'd like to see him improve his OBP to at least .370 -.380 for me to be totally sold on Willy.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #55 on: November 08, 2005, 12:57:03 pm »
contributing offensively is not the "key" or even remotely related to defense in CF.

you are in way over your head here. start paddling to shore.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #56 on: November 08, 2005, 01:13:36 pm »
Quote:

We are the shopping carts in the parking lot of the Opinion-Mart.




Shopping carts?  Funny, I was thinking more along the lines of wrecking ball.

pravata

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #57 on: November 08, 2005, 01:41:44 pm »
Quote:

I'm with you on all that, but I thought you said a good defensive CF was the most valuable position. The key is that Willy be able to contribute more offensively. Citing Beltran as an example is too easy. He was a legitimate stud defensively, at the plate and on the bases. Hence the bzillion dollar pricetag. Don't you think a better comparison would be guys like Gerald Young, Tony Scott from the Dome days (I know the Dome was symetrical, but there was a lot of room out there for a CF to cover). I really did not consider them that valuable and they offer about the same skill package as Willy T. seems to have right now. Actually, they might have been better at getting on base, but I don't know for sure about that. How about Terry Puhl ... he was very valuable, but he hit so much better than Willy that is bprobably not a fair comparison either. What if Willy T. has a second year like Corey Patterson in Chicago? Will he still be so valuable then? I guess my point is that I'd like to see him improve his OBP to at least .370 -.380 for me to be totally sold on Willy.




Ok, forget anything about offense.  Offense isn't what made the Astros go this season in any case.  There were practically the worst offensive team in the NL, how'd they win then?  Also, my thesis is based on the premise that Taveras is a very good defensive centerfielder.  I think I'm on solid ground there.  The thing about MMPUS that makes it different from the Dome is that the Dome was big everywhere.  Pitchers pitch to center and the big gaps in MMPUS.  If you have a CF like Biggio, bad things happen.  

I have no idea if Taveras will be like Patterson.  He's not as psycho as Patterson for sure.  Will he learn to hack the curves they're going to be throwing him down the line with the 3b drawn in?  Will he learn to bunt to the right?  Who cares.  The glue that holds the Astros together is the centerfielder.  All other things being equal (and reductio ad absurdum arguments arent dragged in).  Look at 2004, Everett was at short, Ausmus catcher, Biggio center, below average defense, pitchers suffered all kinds of ways.  Beltran playing center, nothing else changed, they were a good defensive team.  And they won. That's what Taveras brings.  A fast, sure handed, fundamentally sound, centerfielder, playing in MMPUS, improves the Astros tremendously.

Curly

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #58 on: November 08, 2005, 02:38:18 pm »
Quote:

the very last thing. i hope he never hits another HR.

he was a gap hitter in RR. he needs plate discipline and a willingness to accept walks. nothing else.





I can't remember, but was he two steps down the line before every hit even in RR?  I don't seem to remember it being as exagrated as it looked on TV.  Seems to me he gave up driving the ball in favor of just kind of getting the bat around.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #59 on: November 08, 2005, 03:40:08 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

I'm with you on all that, but I thought you said a good defensive CF was the most valuable position. The key is that Willy be able to contribute more offensively. Citing Beltran as an example is too easy. He was a legitimate stud defensively, at the plate and on the bases. Hence the bzillion dollar pricetag. Don't you think a better comparison would be guys like Gerald Young, Tony Scott from the Dome days (I know the Dome was symetrical, but there was a lot of room out there for a CF to cover). I really did not consider them that valuable and they offer about the same skill package as Willy T. seems to have right now. Actually, they might have been better at getting on base, but I don't know for sure about that. How about Terry Puhl ... he was very valuable, but he hit so much better than Willy that is bprobably not a fair comparison either. What if Willy T. has a second year like Corey Patterson in Chicago? Will he still be so valuable then? I guess my point is that I'd like to see him improve his OBP to at least .370 -.380 for me to be totally sold on Willy.




Ok, forget anything about offense.  Offense isn't what made the Astros go this season in any case.  There were practically the worst offensive team in the NL, how'd they win then?  Also, my thesis is based on the premise that Taveras is a very good defensive centerfielder.  I think I'm on solid ground there.  The thing about MMPUS that makes it different from the Dome is that the Dome was big everywhere.  Pitchers pitch to center and the big gaps in MMPUS.  If you have a CF like Biggio, bad things happen.  

I have no idea if Taveras will be like Patterson.  He's not as psycho as Patterson for sure.  Will he learn to hack the curves they're going to be throwing him down the line with the 3b drawn in?  Will he learn to bunt to the right?  Who cares.  The glue that holds the Astros together is the centerfielder.  All other things being equal (and reductio ad absurdum arguments arent dragged in).  Look at 2004, Everett was at short, Ausmus catcher, Biggio center, below average defense, pitchers suffered all kinds of ways.  Beltran playing center, nothing else changed, they were a good defensive team.  And they won. That's what Taveras brings.  A fast, sure handed, fundamentally sound, centerfielder, playing in MMPUS, improves the Astros tremendously.





You forgot the strong accurate arm that runners tested early on but grew to respect.  It cut alot of potential doubles to singles and so forth....  just to add on....  Willy looked far more comfortable in CF as the season progressed.  I think many people knock Taveras' defense in CF because he looked awkward on some fly balls.   However, I am of the opinion that while he may have looked awkward on some hits, he got to them when other players wouldn't have even been in the near vicinity of where the ball hit.  

Offensively, he may or may not be the prototypical leadoff.  If you read enough around here, you'll get some excellent feedback on his hitting ability.  Numerous folks have shared first hand accounts of Willy's ability to hit the ball solidly.  It will come, he just got his feet wet this year.
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pravata

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #60 on: November 08, 2005, 04:03:03 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I'm with you on all that, but I thought you said a good defensive CF was the most valuable position. The key is that Willy be able to contribute more offensively. Citing Beltran as an example is too easy. He was a legitimate stud defensively, at the plate and on the bases. Hence the bzillion dollar pricetag. Don't you think a better comparison would be guys like Gerald Young, Tony Scott from the Dome days (I know the Dome was symetrical, but there was a lot of room out there for a CF to cover). I really did not consider them that valuable and they offer about the same skill package as Willy T. seems to have right now. Actually, they might have been better at getting on base, but I don't know for sure about that. How about Terry Puhl ... he was very valuable, but he hit so much better than Willy that is bprobably not a fair comparison either. What if Willy T. has a second year like Corey Patterson in Chicago? Will he still be so valuable then? I guess my point is that I'd like to see him improve his OBP to at least .370 -.380 for me to be totally sold on Willy.




Ok, forget anything about offense.  Offense isn't what made the Astros go this season in any case.  There were practically the worst offensive team in the NL, how'd they win then?  Also, my thesis is based on the premise that Taveras is a very good defensive centerfielder.  I think I'm on solid ground there.  The thing about MMPUS that makes it different from the Dome is that the Dome was big everywhere.  Pitchers pitch to center and the big gaps in MMPUS.  If you have a CF like Biggio, bad things happen.  

I have no idea if Taveras will be like Patterson.  He's not as psycho as Patterson for sure.  Will he learn to hack the curves they're going to be throwing him down the line with the 3b drawn in?  Will he learn to bunt to the right?  Who cares.  The glue that holds the Astros together is the centerfielder.  All other things being equal (and reductio ad absurdum arguments arent dragged in).  Look at 2004, Everett was at short, Ausmus catcher, Biggio center, below average defense, pitchers suffered all kinds of ways.  Beltran playing center, nothing else changed, they were a good defensive team.  And they won. That's what Taveras brings.  A fast, sure handed, fundamentally sound, centerfielder, playing in MMPUS, improves the Astros tremendously.




You forgot the strong accurate arm that runners tested early on but grew to respect.  It cut alot of potential doubles to singles and so forth....  just to add on....  Willy looked far more comfortable in CF as the season progressed.  I think many people knock Taveras' defense in CF because he looked awkward on some fly balls.   However, I am of the opinion that while he may have looked awkward on some hits, he got to them when other players wouldn't have even been in the near vicinity of where the ball hit.  

Offensively, he may or may not be the prototypical leadoff.  If you read enough around here, you'll get some excellent feedback on his hitting ability.  Numerous folks have shared first hand accounts of Willy's ability to hit the ball solidly.  It will come, he just got his feet wet this year.




Taveras had 2 distinct problems on defense.  His first was unfamilarity with the high rows of seats behind home plate in major league parks.  Coming right from AA he wasnt used to tracking out of a background.  The other was that he misjudged the sound of the bat.  Balls that didn't sound sharply hit would carry farther and faster than expected.  He was used to AA hitters who weren't as strong as major leaguers.  With experience, he learned to judge these things.

The question with Taveras' offense is will he make adjustments faster than the pitchers.

shortstop

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #61 on: November 08, 2005, 04:11:33 pm »
Quote:

Ok, forget anything about offense.  Offense isn't what made the Astros go this season in any case.  There were practically the worst offensive team in the NL, how'd they win then?  Also, my thesis is based on the premise that Taveras is a very good defensive centerfielder.  I think I'm on solid ground there.  The thing about MMPUS that makes it different from the Dome is that the Dome was big everywhere.  Pitchers pitch to center and the big gaps in MMPUS.  If you have a CF like Biggio, bad things happen.  

I have no idea if Taveras will be like Patterson.  He's not as psycho as Patterson for sure.  Will he learn to hack the curves they're going to be throwing him down the line with the 3b drawn in?  Will he learn to bunt to the right?  Who cares.  The glue that holds the Astros together is the centerfielder.  All other things being equal (and reductio ad absurdum arguments arent dragged in).  Look at 2004, Everett was at short, Ausmus catcher, Biggio center, below average defense, pitchers suffered all kinds of ways.  Beltran playing center, nothing else changed, they were a good defensive team.  And they won. That's what Taveras brings.  A fast, sure handed, fundamentally sound, centerfielder, playing in MMPUS, improves the Astros tremendously.





I understand the importance of a good speedy defensive CF in any ballpark. I'll concede that Willy T is very good defensively. But, it seems like you are advocating the position that a defensive CF is the most valuable position on the Astros ... whether or not they contribute offensively at all.  I dont think that opinion holds water. There are so many more valuable positions than a defensive wizzard in CF. Yes, you can win, and win a lot, with a good speedy defenisve CF that does not hit a lick. But, he wont be your most valuable player. That team will need much, much more than that to be successful.

The Astros won this year because they got great pitching, good defense, got clutch hits, played solid fundamental baseball AND got a lot of breaks. Ask the players, sportswriters, fans ... anyone you want,  who the Astros MVP was this year. How many will pick Willy T?

"Pitchers pitch to CF and the big gaps"?? I think I know what you mean by that, but come on ... how exactly does a pitcher do that? Throwing the ball over the center of the plate so, in theory, the batter will hit it to the middle of the field? Right!!!!

Bringing up Biggio is a straw man argument. He's not a CF in any ballpark ... regardless of where the pitchers try to make the batters hit the ball.

Beltran playing in CF and "nothing else changed" other than defensive improvement over Biggio??? Come on. Don't you think somewhere close to 25 HR, 60 RBI, an OBP around .380 in half a season is something?

Sorry, man ... I like Willy T and appreciate his game. I hope he learns the strike zone better and gets on base more because I hope to see him in CF here for a long time. But a defensive CF is not the most valuable poistion on the Astros. That's an opinion that cannot survive the "parking lot of the Opinion-Mart. I hope the people here are more baseball savvy than to accept that on it's face.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #62 on: November 08, 2005, 04:15:25 pm »
you have no clue.
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pravata

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #63 on: November 08, 2005, 04:25:19 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Ok, forget anything about offense.  Offense isn't what made the Astros go this season in any case.  There were practically the worst offensive team in the NL, how'd they win then?  Also, my thesis is based on the premise that Taveras is a very good defensive centerfielder.  I think I'm on solid ground there.  The thing about MMPUS that makes it different from the Dome is that the Dome was big everywhere.  Pitchers pitch to center and the big gaps in MMPUS.  If you have a CF like Biggio, bad things happen.  

I have no idea if Taveras will be like Patterson.  He's not as psycho as Patterson for sure.  Will he learn to hack the curves they're going to be throwing him down the line with the 3b drawn in?  Will he learn to bunt to the right?  Who cares.  The glue that holds the Astros together is the centerfielder.  All other things being equal (and reductio ad absurdum arguments arent dragged in).  Look at 2004, Everett was at short, Ausmus catcher, Biggio center, below average defense, pitchers suffered all kinds of ways.  Beltran playing center, nothing else changed, they were a good defensive team.  And they won. That's what Taveras brings.  A fast, sure handed, fundamentally sound, centerfielder, playing in MMPUS, improves the Astros tremendously.





I understand the importance of a good speedy defensive CF in any ballpark. I'll concede that Willy T is very good defensively. But, it seems like you are advocating the position that a defensive CF is the most valuable position on the Astros ... whether or not they contribute offensively at all.  I dont think that opinion holds water. There are so many more valuable positions than a defensive wizzard in CF. Yes, you can win, and win a lot, with a good speedy defenisve CF that does not hit a lick. But, he wont be your most valuable player. That team will need much, much more than that to be successful.

The Astros won this year because they got great pitching, good defense, got clutch hits, played solid fundamental baseball AND got a lot of breaks. Ask the players, sportswriters, fans ... anyone you want,  who the Astros MVP was this year. How many will pick Willy T?

"Pitchers pitch to CF and the big gaps"?? I think I know what you mean by that, but come on ... how exactly does a pitcher do that? Throwing the ball over the center of the plate so, in theory, the batter will hit it to the middle of the field? Right!!!!

Bringing up Biggio is a straw man argument. He's not a CF in any ballpark ... regardless of where the pitchers try to make the batters hit the ball.

Beltran playing in CF and "nothing else changed" other than defensive improvement over Biggio??? Come on. Don't you think somewhere close to 25 HR, 60 RBI, an OBP around .380 in half a season is something?

Sorry, man ... I like Willy T and appreciate his game. I hope he learns the strike zone better and gets on base more because I hope to see him in CF here for a long time. But a defensive CF is not the most valuable poistion on the Astros. That's an opinion that cannot survive the "parking lot of the Opinion-Mart. I hope the people here are more baseball savvy than to accept that on it's face.





Bringing up Biggio as a centerfielder is not a straw man argument.  He was the cf for a year and a half.  It seriously damaged the Astros chances.  When that changed, the Astros changed.  Also, I'm skeptical that you know much about baseball if you think that pitchers can't make a good pitch to get the ball hit in a general direction.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #64 on: November 08, 2005, 04:27:57 pm »
that's when i bailed out on him. clueless.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #65 on: November 08, 2005, 04:31:10 pm »
Quote:

that's when i bailed out on him. clueless.




It is a significant misunderstanding.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #66 on: November 08, 2005, 05:23:21 pm »
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Ok, forget anything about offense.  Offense isn't what made the Astros go this season in any case.  There were practically the worst offensive team in the NL, how'd they win then?  Also, my thesis is based on the premise that Taveras is a very good defensive centerfielder.  I think I'm on solid ground there.  The thing about MMPUS that makes it different from the Dome is that the Dome was big everywhere.  Pitchers pitch to center and the big gaps in MMPUS.  If you have a CF like Biggio, bad things happen.  

I have no idea if Taveras will be like Patterson.  He's not as psycho as Patterson for sure.  Will he learn to hack the curves they're going to be throwing him down the line with the 3b drawn in?  Will he learn to bunt to the right?  Who cares.  The glue that holds the Astros together is the centerfielder.  All other things being equal (and reductio ad absurdum arguments arent dragged in).  Look at 2004, Everett was at short, Ausmus catcher, Biggio center, below average defense, pitchers suffered all kinds of ways.  Beltran playing center, nothing else changed, they were a good defensive team.  And they won. That's what Taveras brings.  A fast, sure handed, fundamentally sound, centerfielder, playing in MMPUS, improves the Astros tremendously.





I understand the importance of a good speedy defensive CF in any ballpark. I'll concede that Willy T is very good defensively. But, it seems like you are advocating the position that a defensive CF is the most valuable position on the Astros ... whether or not they contribute offensively at all.  I dont think that opinion holds water. There are so many more valuable positions than a defensive wizzard in CF. Yes, you can win, and win a lot, with a good speedy defenisve CF that does not hit a lick. But, he wont be your most valuable player. That team will need much, much more than that to be successful.

The Astros won this year because they got great pitching, good defense, got clutch hits, played solid fundamental baseball AND got a lot of breaks. Ask the players, sportswriters, fans ... anyone you want,  who the Astros MVP was this year. How many will pick Willy T?

"Pitchers pitch to CF and the big gaps"?? I think I know what you mean by that, but come on ... how exactly does a pitcher do that? Throwing the ball over the center of the plate so, in theory, the batter will hit it to the middle of the field? Right!!!!

Bringing up Biggio is a straw man argument. He's not a CF in any ballpark ... regardless of where the pitchers try to make the batters hit the ball.

Beltran playing in CF and "nothing else changed" other than defensive improvement over Biggio??? Come on. Don't you think somewhere close to 25 HR, 60 RBI, an OBP around .380 in half a season is something?

Sorry, man ... I like Willy T and appreciate his game. I hope he learns the strike zone better and gets on base more because I hope to see him in CF here for a long time. But a defensive CF is not the most valuable poistion on the Astros. That's an opinion that cannot survive the "parking lot of the Opinion-Mart. I hope the people here are more baseball savvy than to accept that on it's face.




Bringing up Biggio as a centerfielder is not a straw man argument.  He was the cf for a year and a half.  It seriously damaged the Astros chances.  When that changed, the Astros changed.  Also, I'm skeptical that you know much about baseball if you think that pitchers can't make a good pitch to get the ball hit in a general direction.



Great comeback, Jim R. Good insight and analysis on that. From what I read in this forum to date your contributions ammount to little more than one liners that show nothing. Why bother even posting something like that. If I'm so clueless, why bother even responding. Do you guys get some sort of award for the most posts?

pravada, too bad you bailed out. I think you appear to know quite a bit about baseball and was attempting to debate your opinion that a defensive CF is the most valuable position on the Astros, regardless of their offensive contribution. It's important but I just don't buy the argument that it's the most valuable.

I have played enough competitive baseball to know that, yes pitchers think about pitch location in the hope that the batter will hit in a general direction, usually on the corners. But in real life, it works so rarely that it is irrelevant in a discussion like this. Sorry to break it to you, but it's more a myth than anything else. (I mean, let's throw the ball over the middle of the plate so they will hit it to Willy in CF???)

I know they played Biggio in CF for half the year last year and he hurt the team. That's why I said using him to support your position here was a straw man ... you are comparing his negative defense in CF with Beltran's Gold Glove defense and ignoring Beltran's offensive contributions to try to make a point about the value of Willy Taveras ... and yet I'm the one that's clueless????

Anyway, apparently, you and Jim R. must have played decades of pro ball and manged championship teams so your opinions are unassailable. Forgive me for making the effort. I'll let you guys get back to your group hug.

Peace -- out!

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #67 on: November 08, 2005, 05:24:55 pm »
WFW. how did he last 12 whole posts?
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pravata

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #68 on: November 08, 2005, 05:33:10 pm »
Quote:


Bringing up Biggio as a centerfielder is not a straw man argument.  He was the cf for a year and a half.  It seriously damaged the Astros chances.  When that changed, the Astros changed.  Also, I'm skeptical that you know much about baseball if you think that pitchers can't make a good pitch to get the ball hit in a general direction.




Great comeback, Jim R. Good insight and analysis on that. From what I read in this forum to date your contributions ammount to little more than one liners that show nothing. Why bother even posting something like that. If I'm so clueless, why bother even responding. Do you guys get some sort of award for the most posts?

pravada, too bad you bailed out. I think you appear to know quite a bit about baseball and was attempting to debate your opinion that a defensive CF is the most valuable position on the Astros, regardless of their offensive contribution. It's important but I just don't buy the argument that it's the most valuable.

I have played enough competitive baseball to know that, yes pitchers think about pitch location in the hope that the batter will hit in a general direction, usually on the corners. But in real life, it works so rarely that it is irrelevant in a discussion like this. Sorry to break it to you, but it's more a myth than anything else. (I mean, let's throw the ball over the middle of the plate so they will hit it to Willy in CF???)

I know they played Biggio in CF for half the year last year and he hurt the team. That's why I said using him to support your position here was a straw man ... you are comparing his negative defense in CF with Beltran's Gold Glove defense and ignoring Beltran's offensive contributions to try to make a point about the value of Willy Taveras ... and yet I'm the one that's clueless????

Anyway, apparently, you and Jim R. must have played decades of pro ball and manged championship teams so your opinions are unassailable. Forgive me for making the effort. I'll let you guys get back to your group hug.

Peace -- out!




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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #69 on: November 08, 2005, 05:51:05 pm »
good grief. grow some thicker skin, mabel.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #70 on: November 08, 2005, 06:46:07 pm »
 
Quote:

I have played enough competitive baseball to know that, yes pitchers think about pitch location in the hope that the batter will hit in a general direction, usually on the corners. But in real life, it works so rarely that it is irrelevant in a discussion like this. Sorry to break it to you, but it's more a myth than anything else. (I mean, let's throw the ball over the middle of the plate so they will hit it to Willy in CF???)  




The "competitive" baseball you played was obviously somewhere below Pony League.  "more a myth than anything else" shows that you are the worst kind of idiot.  You want people on this board to believe that you have a grasp on the game of baseball?  You are way out of your league on this one.    Your posts have shown that Jim's morning dump knows more about baseball than you think you do.  Read more, post less.  If not, then fuck off.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #71 on: November 08, 2005, 06:57:38 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

I have played enough competitive baseball to know that, yes pitchers think about pitch location in the hope that the batter will hit in a general direction, usually on the corners. But in real life, it works so rarely that it is irrelevant in a discussion like this. Sorry to break it to you, but it's more a myth than anything else. (I mean, let's throw the ball over the middle of the plate so they will hit it to Willy in CF???)  




The "competitive" baseball you played was obviously somewhere below Pony League.  "more a myth than anything else" shows that you are the worst kind of idiot.  You want people on this board to believe that you have a grasp on the game of baseball?  You are way out of your league on this one.    Your posts have shown that Jim's morning dump knows more about baseball than you think you do.  Read more, post less.  If not, then fuck off.





One wonders what meaning the phrase "go with the pitch" would have if this were true.  Also, slider, low and away, why?

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #72 on: November 08, 2005, 07:10:19 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I have played enough competitive baseball to know that, yes pitchers think about pitch location in the hope that the batter will hit in a general direction, usually on the corners. But in real life, it works so rarely that it is irrelevant in a discussion like this. Sorry to break it to you, but it's more a myth than anything else. (I mean, let's throw the ball over the middle of the plate so they will hit it to Willy in CF???)  




The "competitive" baseball you played was obviously somewhere below Pony League.  "more a myth than anything else" shows that you are the worst kind of idiot.  You want people on this board to believe that you have a grasp on the game of baseball?  You are way out of your league on this one.    Your posts have shown that Jim's morning dump knows more about baseball than you think you do.  Read more, post less.  If not, then fuck off.




One wonders what meaning the phrase "go with the pitch" would have if this were true.  Also, slider, low and away, why?




How about "pitching to your defensive strength"?.  

It's all a myth...not real.  I guess if you put your fingers in your ears and close your eyes nothing is real.  My credit card bill is a myth.  Let's see if that works on the 30th.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #73 on: November 08, 2005, 07:37:46 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I have played enough competitive baseball to know that, yes pitchers think about pitch location in the hope that the batter will hit in a general direction, usually on the corners. But in real life, it works so rarely that it is irrelevant in a discussion like this. Sorry to break it to you, but it's more a myth than anything else. (I mean, let's throw the ball over the middle of the plate so they will hit it to Willy in CF???)  




The "competitive" baseball you played was obviously somewhere below Pony League.  "more a myth than anything else" shows that you are the worst kind of idiot.  You want people on this board to believe that you have a grasp on the game of baseball?  You are way out of your league on this one.    Your posts have shown that Jim's morning dump knows more about baseball than you think you do.  Read more, post less.  If not, then fuck off.




One wonders what meaning the phrase "go with the pitch" would have if this were true.  Also, slider, low and away, why?




You guys are something else ...

I have read a lot here and now I see that I totally overestimated you guys collective baseball intelligence. Did any of you actually play the game? Or is your experience limited to watching on TV and following the leader here?

We need to start at the fundamental level. Yes, CLM and pravata, pitchers throw the ball low and away and high and tight etc. And yes, sometimes they throw it there in the theoretical hope that the batter will hit the ball that way. But mostly ... the huge, overwhelming percentage of the times they throw it there because pitches in those locations are more difficult to hit. But we are talking about pitching to CF here because this is about Willy T's value as a defensive CF, right? I suppose Brad Lidge threw the slider to Pujols over the middle of the plate because he wanted him to hit it to Willy. He is the best defensive OF (and the Astros defense is better up the middle as a whole), so all of the pitches should be thrown over the middle of the plate. Especially at Minute Maid ... since not only is Willy out there, but that's the biggest part of the ballpark. Trying to support an argument that a defensive CF is the most valuable position on the team even in part on the concept that Astros pitchers intentionally pitch to get batters to hit the ball to CF is ridiculous. If that is the knowledge base of the readers of this forum, I have grossly overestimated you as a whole.

Then, for additional support, someone cites the turn around last year and attributes it to the defensive improvement of replacing Biggo in CF with Carlos Beltran because less balls fell in CF ... regardless of the offensive production Betran brought. And I'm the one that is clueless ... the worst kind of idiot, and whatever else???? Wow!

My gosh ...what a comple bunch of crap. You put an opinion out there. Your support of it is weak, lame, not grounded in anything but fantasy and ipse dixit ... then your only recourse is name calling and agression. Is that all you got? Truly dissapointing.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #74 on: November 08, 2005, 07:51:55 pm »
This is embarrassing to watch.  It is obvious that you do not understand the relationship between a pitch's location and where it can be hit.  And no it's not a 100% everytime relationship.  We've all seen Albert Pujols, Vlad Guerrerro, the Puerto Rican Whore, and most recently Jermaine Dye do bad things to well-located pitches.  But the law of averages says that even the best right-handed hitter won't yank a low and away pitch into the Crawford Boxes.  

Why do you think the Astros pitching got so much better after the first year in Minute Maid?  It wasn't a huge personnel turnover.  They learned where they could put pitches to keep them from going in the Boxes.  It was a lesson learned the hard way.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #75 on: November 08, 2005, 08:06:41 pm »
Quote:

This is embarrassing to watch.  It is obvious that you do not understand the relationship between a pitch's location and where it can be hit.  And no it's not a 100% everytime relationship.  We've all seen Albert Pujols, Vlad Guerrerro, the Puerto Rican Whore, and most recently Jermaine Dye do bad things to well-located pitches.  But the law of averages says that even the best right-handed hitter won't yank a low and away pitch into the Crawford Boxes.  

Why do you think the Astros pitching got so much better after the first year in Minute Maid?  It wasn't a huge personnel turnover.  They learned where they could put pitches to keep them from going in the Boxes.  It was a lesson learned the hard way.





Sorry man ... I tend to agree with you. But that's not what this is about. It's about supporting a position that a defensive CF is the most valuable position on the Astros by stating that our pitchers pitch to CF. No doubt that where a pitch is located influences where it can be hit. But that's such a minor consideration in selecting location compared with locating a pitch where it's more difficult to hit. Also to get them to hit it to CF intentionally, you pretty much gotta throw the ball over the middle of the plate. Not a good idea most of the time. Certainly not something a pitching staff wants to do as a strategy of getting outs.

Anyway, i apologize ahead of time for my comments about the baseball intelligence of this forum "as a whole". That was not what I meant and I should have said it differently.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #76 on: November 08, 2005, 08:12:30 pm »
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But we are talking about pitching to CF here because this is about Willy T's value as a defensive CF, right? I suppose Brad Lidge threw the slider to Pujols over the middle of the plate because he wanted him to hit it to Willy.




Let's stop right there.  If you think pitches down the middle get hit up the middle, there's no point in this going any further with you.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #77 on: November 08, 2005, 08:16:20 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

But we are talking about pitching to CF here because this is about Willy T's value as a defensive CF, right? I suppose Brad Lidge threw the slider to Pujols over the middle of the plate because he wanted him to hit it to Willy.




Let's stop right there.  If you think pitches down the middle get hit up the middle, there's no point in this going any further with you.





I think he's being sarcastic.  I think he's saying that a pitcher throws the best pitch he can throw, but can't control what happens when the pitch is put into play.

I think.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #78 on: November 08, 2005, 08:20:39 pm »
That's exactly my point ... or at leaat part of the point.

The guy said the Astros pitchers pitch to CF or the gaps as a matter of strategy because the park is big in CF and Willy is out there and can run it down. OK, how are you going to "pitch to CF and the gaps"? Yes, I know about the cliches like "pitch to your defensive strengths" and stuff like that. But, in reality, it works that way so rarely that there is no way a team would make it part of their pitching strategy.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #79 on: November 08, 2005, 08:21:29 pm »
Quote:


I think he's being sarcastic.  I think he's saying that a pitcher throws the best pitch he can throw, but can't control what happens when the pitch is put into play.

I think.





Well that's overly simplistic.  Yes, the pitcher has no guarantee of where the pitch will be hit, but pitch location does affect where and how hard it will be hit in any given instance.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #80 on: November 08, 2005, 08:23:13 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

But we are talking about pitching to CF here because this is about Willy T's value as a defensive CF, right? I suppose Brad Lidge threw the slider to Pujols over the middle of the plate because he wanted him to hit it to Willy.




Let's stop right there.  If you think pitches down the middle get hit up the middle, there's no point in this going any further with you.




I think he's being sarcastic.  I think he's saying that a pitcher throws the best pitch he can throw, but can't control what happens when the pitch is put into play.

I think.




Of course I'm being sarcastic about that.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #81 on: November 08, 2005, 08:23:59 pm »
Quote:

OK, how are you going to "pitch to CF and the gaps"?




Well, specifically in MMPUS, you're going to throw pitches in locations that are difficult to pull.  That means you're not going to throw belthigh fastballs down the middle (good advice in any park).  Which pitches do you think are difficult for a righthanded hitter to pull?  Why are they?
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #82 on: November 08, 2005, 08:26:03 pm »
Quote:

Also to get them to hit it to CF intentionally, you pretty much gotta throw the ball over the middle of the plate.




This is just wrong.  You are  way oversimplifying this, and the oversimplification is incorrect.  Much more goes into the equation than where the pitch is located.  The batter has some say in this as well in whether they are trying to pull the ball, drive the ball, or just make contact.  I can't understand it for you. Pitching down the middle is not the only way, and most certainly not the best way, to induce hits to the middle of the field.  A good pitcher knows how to do this.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #83 on: November 08, 2005, 08:26:21 pm »
Quote:


Of course I'm being sarcastic about that.





OK, then what did you mean by this:

"...to get them to hit it to CF intentionally, you pretty much gotta throw the ball over the middle of the plate."
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #84 on: November 08, 2005, 08:31:51 pm »
I don't know what the single most important defensive position for the Astros is.  On one hand, two balls get hit up on Tal's Hill every year; one of which tends to be hit by a Cardinal in the NLCS.  On the other, lots of balls are hit to left center, which is also difficult to play.  We saw the value of a real centerfielder this postseason.  Willy climbed the hill and made a nice catch in Game 4 of the NLCS.  He also made a spectacular play against the fence in left center (he basically jumped over Berkman, though I have forgotten during which game).  But, shortstop is also very important.  Everett made dazzling plays that helped win the pennant; he also made a couple poor plays that could have hurt us in the World Series.  And of course, catcher is important (see: every TZ thread not started by Budgirl about Brad Ausmus).

Since our opinions here don't really matter, a telling indication of which position the Astros value most highly might be the level of offensive inability the team will tolerate from a star defensive player before he is replaced.  As far as Everett and Ausmus are concerned, the Astros aren't expecting much offense out of them, nor have their problems offensively in the past resulted in less playing time.  I suspect the bar for Taveras is a little higher.  I don't think he can hit .240 and start in centerfield; Garner indicated as much when he replaced Taveras with Chris Burke during the NLCS (Burke was hot at the plate, and is inferior to Taveras defensively).

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #85 on: November 08, 2005, 08:33:20 pm »
Theoretically, youre going to work the outside corner on a righthander and want to bust the lefty inside. But for the most part you are going to want to move the ball around, change speeds and throw the pitches you are most comfortable with. The problem at Minute Maid is the ball carries well to both foul lines and MLB hitters go with the pitch well enough that just staying outside does not increase the chances that they will hit to CF enough to make it a pattern. On top of that the last thing you want to do is get intoi pitching pattrerns.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #86 on: November 08, 2005, 08:34:10 pm »
Quote:

Which pitches do you think are difficult for a righthanded hitter to pull?  Why are they?




A follow on to HH's question.  If the hitter is trying to pull the ball, but gets a pitch they can't pull, where does the ball go if they make contact?

And it's quitting time on the West Coast.  Leave your answer on my desk and I'll review it in the morning.  Remember to show your work.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #87 on: November 08, 2005, 08:43:28 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Which pitches do you think are difficult for a righthanded hitter to pull?  Why are they?




A follow on to HH's question.  If the hitter is trying to pull the ball, but gets a pitch they can't pull, where does the ball go if they make contact?

And it's quitting time on the West Coast.  Leave your answer on my desk and I'll review it in the morning.  Remember to show your work.




Depends on what kind of pitch it is, where it's located, lefty/righty batter ... but, most of the time a RH batter that is trying to pull the ball and gets a ball he cannot pull, will ground to SS or pop it up weakly. A lefty will ground it to 2B. But there are too many variables. That's why tring to get them to hit it to Willy in CF does not make sense.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #88 on: November 08, 2005, 08:45:13 pm »
Quote:

Theoretically, youre going to work the outside corner on a righthander and want to bust the lefty inside.





So location *can* influence where the ball is hit.  Interesting.

Quote:


 But for the most part you are going to want to move the ball around, change speeds and throw the pitches you are most comfortable with.





Not necessarily.  Some hitters you want to stay primarily in the same location.  Unless you're Roy Oswalt, you probably don't want to throw Albert Pujols anything on the inside half of the plate, regardless of where you threw the last pitch.  Furthermore, there are hitter where you will not want to change speeds.  If a guy cannot catch up to your fastball, you're not going to want to speed up his bat just for the sake of changing speeds.

Quote:

On top of that the last thing you want to do is get intoi pitching pattrerns.




That's not necessarily the last thing you want to do.  Roy Oswalt got into a pretty good "pattern" in Game 6 of the NLCS.  

The point is, you have to approach every hitter and every situation differently.  What works at getting out Reggie Sanders may not work against Barry Bonds. What worked in the Astrodome may not work in Coors Field.  To make make blanket statements either way is ridiculous.  Good pitchers use everything at their disposal and that most certainly includes the park dimensions.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #89 on: November 08, 2005, 09:46:09 pm »
 
Quote:

Did any of you actually play the game?




Three years of D1 (LSU) baseball (one national championship- 1991), and 34 games of A ball (1992) in the beautiful metropolis of Peoria (I liked to call it hell).  

There are many others on this board that have played and/or taught the game at high levels.  None of that matters.  What matters is that most people on this board KNOW the game.  Don't be fooled into the belief someone that never played the game automatically knows less than someone that has.  That would be a very dumb assumption. Osmosis is overrated in baseball.

You are not going to convert anybody here.  This place is what it is.  It was like this before you, and will be like this after you.  If you have a problem with it or don't like it, there are many other Astros' message boards.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #90 on: November 08, 2005, 10:07:58 pm »
Did you play with Joey Belle? Sounds like you just missed him.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #91 on: November 08, 2005, 10:16:59 pm »
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Did you play with Joey Belle? Sounds like you just missed him.




Belle's last year at LSU was 1987.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #92 on: November 08, 2005, 11:10:31 pm »
Quote:

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Which pitches do you think are difficult for a righthanded hitter to pull?  Why are they?




A follow on to HH's question.  If the hitter is trying to pull the ball, but gets a pitch they can't pull, where does the ball go if they make contact?

And it's quitting time on the West Coast.  Leave your answer on my desk and I'll review it in the morning.  Remember to show your work.




Depends on what kind of pitch it is, where it's located, lefty/righty batter ... but, most of the time a RH batter that is trying to pull the ball and gets a ball he cannot pull, will ground to SS or pop it up weakly. A lefty will ground it to 2B. But there are too many variables. That's why tring to get them to hit it to Willy in CF does not make sense.




There arent too many variables.  Here's a couple real life instances.  Lets go with someone like Oswalt who can put the ball where he wants most of the time.  Not Lima, Holt, Redding, etc.  Pitching to Edmonds.  Edmonds is constantly looking for a ball high and away to pop into the Crawfords.  So, Oswalt throws him the 67 mph curve away, too far to hit, comes in low fast, then high curve away.  Fly ball left center.  Pujols, dangerous anywhere, but, Oswalt throws him the 84 mph curve away to slow down his bat, then a fastball away, pops it deep left of the Hill.  Eckstein, fastball down the middle, he's protecting the whole time anyway.

It's a matter of fact that the Astros do better with balls hit gap to gap and a good pitcher can make that happen.  Furthermore, a fast centerfielder can  play deep yet come in to stop the bloops.  If you watched the team in 2004, you saw the change immediately.  Starters could go deeper because they didnt have to strike everybody out.  Relievers weren't exhausted.  Beltran didn't start hitting until late and in the playoffs.  It was his defense that made the difference.  That's why the Astros felt comfortable going with Taveras from the beginning, and not panic into trading for Burnitz, even though they were skeptical he was going to hit.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #93 on: November 08, 2005, 11:10:49 pm »
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I don't know what the single most important defensive position for the Astros is.  On one hand, two balls get hit up on Tal's Hill every year; one of which tends to be hit by a Cardinal in the NLCS.  On the other, lots of balls are hit to left center, which is also difficult to play.  We saw the value of a real centerfielder this postseason.  Willy climbed the hill and made a nice catch in Game 4 of the NLCS.  He also made a spectacular play against the fence in left center (he basically jumped over Berkman, though I have forgotten during which game).  But, shortstop is also very important.  Everett made dazzling plays that helped win the pennant; he also made a couple poor plays that could have hurt us in the World Series.  And of course, catcher is important (see: every TZ thread not started by Budgirl about Brad Ausmus).

Since our opinions here don't really matter, a telling indication of which position the Astros value most highly might be the level of offensive inability the team will tolerate from a star defensive player before he is replaced.  As far as Everett and Ausmus are concerned, the Astros aren't expecting much offense out of them, nor have their problems offensively in the past resulted in less playing time.  I suspect the bar for Taveras is a little higher.  I don't think he can hit .240 and start in centerfield; Garner indicated as much when he replaced Taveras with Chris Burke during the NLCS (Burke was hot at the plate, and is inferior to Taveras defensively).





Well said; it would've saved everybody a lot of hassle if "shortstop" had stated his point that way, instead of getting into that "you have to throw the ball down the middle to get them to hit it to center" malarky.

Of course you'd love to have guys at SS, C, and CF that all have .900+ OPS's; but those guys are rare and expensive. And if you're getting great offense elsewhere, you don't NEED Tejada, Griffey, and Varitek to have a good lineup. The Rangers paid $25 mil for offense at SS, but it didn't matter because their OF tended to hit like shortstops. So their offense, while good, was something less than a juggernaut.

What will ultimately determine whether Taveras sticks in CF is not only his development as a hitter, but whether they get above-avg. offense from the corners. If so, then you're fine with AE, Willy, and Ausmus. You're usually screwing yourself run-prevention-wise or budget-wise if you fall in love w/ offense at those spots.

Sorry if this states the very obvious.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #94 on: November 08, 2005, 11:14:27 pm »
I played 1988, 1991, and 1992.  As HH said Joey's last year was '87.  His brother Terry also played at LSU, and his last year was my fr. year.  He was nice to the freshmen but other than that I didn't hang around him (freshmen were/are the lowest form of life there is).  He and Joey are twins (not identical, the other kind) but Joey never stopped by like some of the other guys did after they had finished their careers.  Joey was a little different since he got suspended at the end of his last season for talking back to God (Bertman)among other things.

I skipped '89 and '90 because I was also trying to play football, and the head football coach at the time didn't think guys with football scholarships should be missing most of spring practice playing baseball.  I finally figured out my future wasn't in football, then later I found out my future wasn't in baseball either.  What do I know?

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #95 on: November 08, 2005, 11:43:37 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Did any of you actually play the game?




Three years of D1 (LSU) baseball (one national championship- 1991), and 34 games of A ball (1992) in the beautiful metropolis of Peoria (I liked to call it hell).  

There are many others on this board that have played and/or taught the game at high levels.  None of that matters.  What matters is that most people on this board KNOW the game.  Don't be fooled into the belief someone that never played the game automatically knows less than someone that has.  That would be a very dumb assumption. Osmosis is overrated in baseball.

You are not going to convert anybody here.  This place is what it is.  It was like this before you, and will be like this after you.  If you have a problem with it or don't like it, there are many other Astros' message boards.





Not trying to convert anyone ... just got caught up in a debate over the value of a relatively nonproductive defensive CF. I thought the basis for the guys opinions were weak and that's when the "clueless", "worst kind of idiot" and "fuck off" responses came in.

Got past Pony League and played 4 yrs at TCU in Fort Worth (grad 85) then 1 yr independent ball in the Texas/Louisiana league, then 1 and 1/2 year in class A in Winston-Salem (probably not as bad as Peoria) after that 2 years in pro ball in the European league in Belgium (most enjoyable time of all). Now I run a collegiate summer team here ... put up all the $$ myself, recruit all of the players, and even take a few swings here and there. Anyway, I agree that all means very little in terms of the validity of my baseball opinions ... and agree 100% that you don't need to have played the game to know what you are talking about. I have read a lot of posts here and the baseball knowlege appears to be quite high. Neverthelss, I still don't think pitchers really try to entice batters to hit the ball to a player in the middle of the field ... or that it evidences the value of the CF. i just wanted to debate the issue, without the drama.

pravata

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #96 on: November 08, 2005, 11:59:00 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Did any of you actually play the game?




Three years of D1 (LSU) baseball (one national championship- 1991), and 34 games of A ball (1992) in the beautiful metropolis of Peoria (I liked to call it hell).  

There are many others on this board that have played and/or taught the game at high levels.  None of that matters.  What matters is that most people on this board KNOW the game.  Don't be fooled into the belief someone that never played the game automatically knows less than someone that has.  That would be a very dumb assumption. Osmosis is overrated in baseball.

You are not going to convert anybody here.  This place is what it is.  It was like this before you, and will be like this after you.  If you have a problem with it or don't like it, there are many other Astros' message boards.




Not trying to convert anyone ... just got caught up in a debate over the value of a relatively nonproductive defensive CF. I thought the basis for the guys opinions were weak and that's when the "clueless", "worst kind of idiot" and "fuck off" responses came in.

Got past Pony League and played 4 yrs at TCU in Fort Worth (grad 85) then 1 yr independent ball in the Texas/Louisiana league, then 1 and 1/2 year in class A in Winston-Salem (probably not as bad as Peoria) after that 2 years in pro ball in the European league in Belgium (most enjoyable time of all). Now I run a collegiate summer team here ... put up all the $$ myself, recruit all of the players, and even take a few swings here and there. Anyway, I agree that all means very little in terms of the validity of my baseball opinions ... and agree 100% that you don't need to have played the game to know what you are talking about. I have read a lot of posts here and the baseball knowlege appears to be quite high. Neverthelss, I still don't think pitchers really try to entice batters to hit the ball to a player in the middle of the field ... or that it evidences the value of the CF. i just wanted to debate the issue, without the drama.




I don't think you can have seriously watched many Astros home games and still hold this opinion.  The Astros were perfectly willing to go into this season with low expectations for offense from Taveras.  Look at any comments by Purpura for what he's looking for for next season.  He says offense is his most pressing issue.  He has mentioned Lane, Bagwell, but has said nothing about getting another CF.  Why?  Centerfield defense is why.  Jeff Kent complained that MMPUS is a difficult field to hit in, specifically because of the deep gaps.  Why didn't he just pull the ball?  Why is Richard Hidalgo looking for his 4th team in 3 years?

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #97 on: November 09, 2005, 12:39:55 am »
Quote:



I don't think you can have seriously watched many Astros home games and still hold this opinion.  The Astros were perfectly willing to go into this season with low expectations for offense from Taveras.  Look at any comments by Purpura for what he's looking for for next season.  He says offense is his most pressing issue.  He has mentioned Lane, Bagwell, but has said nothing about getting another CF.  Why?  Centerfield defense is why.  Jeff Kent complained that MMPUS is a difficult field to hit in, specifically because of the deep gaps.  Why didn't he just pull the ball?  Why is Richard Hidalgo looking for his 4th team in 3 years?





Man, I'm not so sure our opinions are all that different. I think defense in CF is very important. I think Willy is one of the better defensive CFs in the league. His arm is certainly better than most and he has much more range than just about anyone. He's improved a great deal on the other things. I'm glad he's on our team.

I think where we part ways is when you say, all things being equal, he's the most valuable on the team. I've seen more than enough Astros games and can't agree with that. I think out starting pitching is more valuable. I think our closer is more valuable. I think Ausmus catching is more valuable. I think the run production we got from Ensberg/Berkman was more valuable. Biggio's grit and leadership (from 2B)is more valuable. I think if you replaced Willy with an average defensive CF (not Biggio, he was far from average out there), all other things being equal, we'd still be a playoff team. However, if you replace either Berkman, Ensberg, our starting pitching or our closer with their avarage counterparts, we'd be much worse off.

Not sure what Jeff Kent and Richard Hidalgo have to do with this, but let's just agree to dissagree on that relatively minor point. You say hes the most valuable. I say he's very important. It's cool.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #98 on: November 09, 2005, 12:53:39 am »
Quote:

Quote:



I don't think you can have seriously watched many Astros home games and still hold this opinion.  The Astros were perfectly willing to go into this season with low expectations for offense from Taveras.  Look at any comments by Purpura for what he's looking for for next season.  He says offense is his most pressing issue.  He has mentioned Lane, Bagwell, but has said nothing about getting another CF.  Why?  Centerfield defense is why.  Jeff Kent complained that MMPUS is a difficult field to hit in, specifically because of the deep gaps.  Why didn't he just pull the ball?  Why is Richard Hidalgo looking for his 4th team in 3 years?





Man, I'm not so sure our opinions are all that different. I think defense in CF is very important. I think Willy is one of the better defensive CFs in the league. His arm is certainly better than most and he has much more range than just about anyone. He's improved a great deal on the other things. I'm glad he's on our team.

I think where we part ways is when you say, all things being equal, he's the most valuable on the team. I've seen more than enough Astros games and can't agree with that. I think out starting pitching is more valuable. I think our closer is more valuable. I think Ausmus catching is more valuable. I think the run production we got from Ensberg/Berkman was more valuable. Biggio's grit and leadership (from 2B)is more valuable. I think if you replaced Willy with an average defensive CF (not Biggio, he was far from average out there), all other things being equal, we'd still be a playoff team. However, if you replace either Berkman, Ensberg, our starting pitching or our closer with their avarage counterparts, we'd be much worse off.

Not sure what Jeff Kent and Richard Hidalgo have to do with this, but let's just agree to dissagree on that relatively minor point. You say hes the most valuable. I say he's very important. It's cool.




Kent complained that a lot of his hard hit balls died in the gaps.  If he had tried to pull the ball; aiming at the left field wall; instead of hitting it where it was pitched, he would have had the same kind of success that Hidalgo had in his last 2 season in Houston.  Hidalgo tried to pull everything.  If it doesn't matter where the ball is pitched, and the batter can't be influenced to hit in a certain direction, why didn't Hidalgo's approach work?

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #99 on: November 09, 2005, 01:27:45 am »
Whatever your reasons, I still can't agree with the notion that pitchers pitching for contact to a area of the field is "more a myth than anything else", or "it works so rarely that it is irrelevant in a discussion".  Not to even mention Maddox (the story of him calling a pop up to 3rd during a mound visit then the next pitch turns into a pop up to 3rd comes to mind) and others that have it down to a science. The nuttiest person I know, Paul Byrd (I don't think he has ever struck a hitter out) has made much more money than I could ever hope to by being successful at that very thing.  

As pravata said Jeff Kent told all who would listen during his two years in Houston that MMPUS was not the great hitters park others made it out to be (he went so far as to say it was really a pitchers park).  He hit a shit load of long outs from LC to dead center.  Why didn't he hit some of those 400' outs to the 315' Crawford Boxes?  Could it have something to do with the pitcher wanting him to hit the ball to center and left-center?

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #100 on: November 09, 2005, 03:25:39 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

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But we are talking about pitching to CF here because this is about Willy T's value as a defensive CF, right? I suppose Brad Lidge threw the slider to Pujols over the middle of the plate because he wanted him to hit it to Willy.




Let's stop right there.  If you think pitches down the middle get hit up the middle, there's no point in this going any further with you.




I think he's being sarcastic.  I think he's saying that a pitcher throws the best pitch he can throw, but can't control what happens when the pitch is put into play.

I think.




Of course I'm being sarcastic about that.




I thought so, but I wasn't reading carefully, and so many people thought you were being serious that I figured maybe I was missing something.

I re-read this thread late last night, and was left with a bunch of questions for almost everybody, so forgive me but:

 Was Biggio that bad in centerfield?   The consensus now seems to be that Biggio was a huge defensive liability in centerfield, but I remember that then the consensus hereabouts was that Biggio wasn't great in center, but he was at least adequate.  When he moved to left, it was a different story, but in center people were fairly protective.  I don't think at the time anyone would have replaced Biggio with a better defender with no bat.  Maybe I remember things wrong.

 Is Jeff Kent a good judge of the defensive needs of MMPUS?   I am convinced that if Jeff Kent told me the sun was shining, I'd look outside to check.  If you go back and check Kent's spray charts for his 2 years in MMPUS, assuming they're more or less correct, he had very few long balls taken away in deep center, 5 maybe.  In 2004, all of Kent's homers are to left, his doubles are pretty evenly spread (with none going to what I'd think of as the gaps) and singles were pretty well spread with a plurality in left.  The heavy plurality of Kent's fly outs were in right field.  Interestingly, Kent has 42 triples in his career, with 8 of them in his last year at MMPUS, and all of those to deep center.  Those probably would have been home runs in other parks.  Maybe that's what he's remembering.

 There's an easy way to figure out whether pitchers pitch to serve up a particular hit.   This just doesn't seem right to me.  If nothing else, every good hitter is working as hard as he can to get a pitch that they can hit, and I would expect that at least some of the time the pitcher is pitching away from the batter's expectations instead of worrying about what the batter's going to do with the pitch if he gets hold of it.  Rather than arguing about it, though, it would be easy enough to figure out:  chart a pitcher's outs for a season.  Far and away, most of the outs would be in the infield, so to the extent the pitcher can get ground balls I guess it's true, and I'd guess the hits would tend towards the shortstop, but not by any huge majority.  I would guess that outfield outs might also tend a tiny bit towards center, but not enough to make one think that pitchers are pitching to get the ball to land in center.  If you look at three outfielders last season, Lane, Taveras, and Burke, and assume that during the regular season Lane was always in right, Taveras center, and Burke left, then Taveras had far and away the most outs per inning played, .26.  Well, maybe I lied.  He had a significantly greater number of outs per inning than the other two, .26.  Ok I lied again, Burke had .22 per inning and Lane .20, so Taveras had some more.  Had it been a horse race, he would have won by a head. But what those numbers really seem to indicate is that outs are pretty much spread to all fields.  Maybe the pitcher controls that, but if they do they're not controlling it in any very rational way.  

As for the Maddux story, I'd guess one of the reasons that story is told is because it's so extraordinary, not because it's the expectation for pitchers, even Maddux, are usually able to call their shot.

Maybe Jim will right me on this--that when he pitched he pitched for a particular hit, or maybe one of our catchers will tell me that when they called a particular pitch they always called it with the expectation that the ball would be put in play in a particular way, and it will be nary the first nor the last time I'll have been corrected.  But like I said, it'd be easy enough to chart a particular pitcher's outs, even down to particular batters, and I'd sure think that would tell a lot.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #101 on: November 09, 2005, 03:47:48 pm »
i would have replaced Biggio with a better defender.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #102 on: November 09, 2005, 03:50:51 pm »
That I don't doubt.  I just remember as a general matter people defended Biggio in center.  Maybe I'm just remembering me.

He sure was bad in left though.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #103 on: November 09, 2005, 03:52:08 pm »
i thought he was adequate in CF.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #104 on: November 09, 2005, 03:55:48 pm »
Quote:

i thought he was adequate in CF.




First season. 2nd season he played too deep and couldn't come in fast enough.  Bloops were killing the Astros pitchers.  First thing they did when they got Beltran was to get him to play in some.  He resisted at first.  When he did take 5 steps in, those bloops that had been extending innings, pitch counts, crooked numbers, became inning ending pop ups.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #105 on: November 09, 2005, 03:57:51 pm »
i beg to differ with Messr. Horned Frog, but pitchers very definitely can influence where the ball is hit. i know i don't know shit, but i have talked to folks who do.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #106 on: November 09, 2005, 04:08:50 pm »
Quote:

i beg to differ with Messr. Horned Frog, but pitchers very definitely can influence where the ball is hit. i know i don't know shit, but i have talked to folks who do.




When Pettitte pitches, all those 6-3 and 5-3 outs just a coincidence?

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #107 on: November 09, 2005, 04:48:22 pm »
Quote:

i beg to differ with Messr. Horned Frog, but pitchers very definitely can influence where the ball is hit. i know i don't know shit, but i have talked to folks who do.




As one of the truly ignorant, I guess I'm trying to parse through Messr. HF to see if I can figure out what he's saying that's enlightening, if anything.  I'd guess that if I tried to merge what you and he are saying, I'd probably come up with something like this:

When a pitcher makes his pitch--the pitcher's pitch--it's not just random that the batter hits the ball more or less where the pitcher thinks the ball will go. That is not meaningless in terms of the outcome of baseball games.

The reasons Mr. HF tends to think the results are meaningless are:

(1)  Even the best pitcher doesn't always make his pitch, so sometimes the pitcher's got no reasonable expectation as to what the ball's going to do.

(2)  The batter sometimes gets a hit off of the pitcher's pitch.

(3)  Sometimes a batter does something with the pitch the pitcher doesn't expect:  fouls it off, ignores it, whatever.

(4)  Sometimes the pitcher makes a bad choice of a pitch.

So it's kind of the opposite of the Ted Williams/Rogers Hornsby maxim, wait for a pitch to hit.  Pitch a pitch that's unhittable.  Is it fair to say that Mr. Horned Toad has worked himself into a bit of a corner?  Sometimes a pitcher does pitch for a particular result, and while the result isn't certain, it's not meaningless either?
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #108 on: November 09, 2005, 04:53:22 pm »
And I guess one more thing that Mr. HF is saying: a pitcher doesn't necessarily pitch for a particular result.  Sometimes the pitcher is going to throw what he thinks is the best pitch without possible outcomes ever crossing his mind.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #109 on: November 09, 2005, 07:48:44 pm »
Quote:

[

 Was Biggio that bad in centerfield?   The consensus now seems to be that Biggio was a huge defensive liability in centerfield, but I remember that then the consensus hereabouts was that Biggio wasn't great in center, but he was at least adequate.  When he moved to left, it was a different story, but in center people were fairly protective.  I don't think at the time anyone would have replaced Biggio with a better defender with no bat.  Maybe I remember things wrong.
 





You remember things correctly.  It's kind of amusing to see the turnaround, particularly given their fervor at the time.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #110 on: November 09, 2005, 07:55:11 pm »
Quote:


maybe one of our catchers will tell me that when they called a particular pitch they always called it with the expectation that the ball would be put in play in a particular way,





Of course you do.  You don't expect to strike out every single hitter without contact.  So you throw pitches with the expectation that they will be more difficult to pull or more difficult to hit in the air or more difficult hit on the ground or whatever.  What you want or expect the hitter will be able to do with it is always a consideration for pitch selection, regardless of what Mr. Horny Toad says.  You dont' go up there throwing pitches with no clue as to whether or not one has a more likely outcome than another.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #111 on: November 09, 2005, 10:08:51 pm »
Quote:

Quote:


maybe one of our catchers will tell me that when they called a particular pitch they always called it with the expectation that the ball would be put in play in a particular way,





Of course you do.  You don't expect to strike out every single hitter without contact.  So you throw pitches with the expectation that they will be more difficult to pull or more difficult to hit in the air or more difficult hit on the ground or whatever.  What you want or expect the hitter will be able to do with it is always a consideration for pitch selection, regardless of what Mr. Horny Toad says.  You dont' go up there throwing pitches with no clue as to whether or not one has a more likely outcome than another.




Bear with me then.  Do you expect that the more likely result will be a ground ball somewhere between the second baseman and the left field stands?  or that the more likely result be a ground ball hit sharply to the shortstop standing 8 1/3 feet to the left of 2d, but not too shallow?  or something in between?  And more often than not do you choose the pitch with the likely result in mind, or do you choose a pitch because it's a good pitch for the pitcher, and  the expectation of the result is secondary?  That may all sound like gobbledygook, but I'm talking out of honest ignorance here, and I see some real difference between the two, and would guess that the second is what's going on most of the time.

One of the fascinating things I noticed when I was looking at spray charts was Biggio's.  Biggio hits to left.  Not just more often than not, not just pretty often: Biggio hits to left like the Prince of Wales' wife is ugly.  I figured that his outs would concentrate in left, too, or otherwise he'd also hit to other fields.  The outs didn't concentrate.  They were spread all over everywhere.  Why then, if a pitcher can locate the result, would a pitcher ever give Biggio anything that he could possibly pull?  I dunno, but I kept thinking that if HF was truly saying something meaningful, that it was somehow captured there, but for the life of me I couldn't figure it out.  I dunno.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #112 on: November 09, 2005, 10:27:46 pm »
Quote:


Bear with me then.  Do you expect that the more likely result will be a ground ball somewhere between the second baseman and the left field stands?  or that the more likely result be a ground ball hit sharply to the shortstop standing 8 1/3 feet to the left of 2d, but not too shallow?  or something in between?  





Something in between.  You expect that it's hit on the ground towards where the secondbaseman is positioned or expected to hit the ball in the air to RF.  

Quote:


And more often than not do you choose the pitch with the likely result in mind, or do you choose a pitch because it's a good pitch for the pitcher, and  the expectation of the result is secondary?





They are linked.  A pitch is good for a pitcher because it most often yields favorable results.  I hardly ever hear of a hanging curve described as a "good pitch for a pitcher", mainly because it's usually hit hard.

Quote:


That may all sound like gobbledygook, but I'm talking out of honest ignorance here, and I see some real difference between the two, and would guess that the second is what's going on most of the time.





Again, a pitch is a "good pitch" because of the likely outcome, not because the pitcher just likes throwing that pitch.  You can't have the second without the first.

Quote:


One of the fascinating things I noticed when I was looking at spray charts was Biggio's.  Biggio hits to left.  Not just more often than not, not just pretty often: Biggio hits to left like the Prince of Wales' wife is ugly.  I figured that his outs would concentrate in left, too, or otherwise he'd also hit to other fields.  They outs didn't concentrate.  They were spread all over everywhere.  Why then, if a pitcher can locate the result, would a pitcher ever give Biggio anything that he could possibly pull?





I ask that all the time too.  Part of it is mistake pitches.  A pitcher wants to put the ball in one spot, but misses and Biggio hits it.  Secondly, part of it is to keep him "honest".  If Biggio knew that the pitch was going to be in a specific location, he'd have a better chance at hitting it.  

Quote:

I dunno, but I kept thinking that if HF was truly saying something meaningful, that it was somehow captured there, but for the life of me I couldn't figure it out.  I dunno.




I think what HF/SS is trying to say is that pitchers pitch to their strengths, which is true.  But it's also true that a pitcher's strength may not necessarily be throwing the ball by guys, in which case he pitches to get ground balls, fly balls, what have you.  In that case, the likelihood of where the ball will be it most definitely enters the equation.  

In simple terms, a pitcher's strength is defined by the outcome of his pitches.  Pitch selection is unequivocally based on what the pitcher thinks will be the outcome of that pitch.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #113 on: November 09, 2005, 11:02:08 pm »
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Pitch selection is unequivocally based on what the pitcher thinks will be the outcome of that pitch.




I think I'll have that embroidered on a sampler.  Thanks.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #114 on: November 10, 2005, 02:29:33 am »
Wow ? excellent viewpoints and questions. I guess some of what I said was not thought out real well . My bad ?

No doubt where the pitcher intends to locate the pitch has some influence on where the ball will be hit. I occasionally used that as a factor in positioning myself on a given batter. But, really, it was such a small factor compared to things like pitch speed, pitch sequence, nature of the batter, game situation, pitcher?s control, etc. that it?s hard for me to imagine it being used as a staff wide strategy due to the defensive ability of a CF. I know pitch location has a big influence on whether it will be hit on the ground or in the air ? and maybe on the ground to a particular side of the infield, but I?m skeptical about it?s effectiveness at getting a batter to hit the ball in the air to the center of the field. Perhaps my problem with the concept is that I did not reach levels of baseball where pitchers were able to do that with enough consistency to use it as a staff wide strategy. True: I have absolutely no idea whether Clemens, Petite, Oswalt, Backe, et al in fact do this. My experience has been in positioning the defense to the pitcher?s strength rather than pitching to the defense?s strength. Also, I think pitching to prevent a batter from pulling the ball is probably quite a bit easier, more effective and more necessary than pitching to induce a fly ball to the center of the field.

My question to you guys. If you had SuperCF, who could guarantee that he would run down anything hit in the air to CF, and the CF fence was 500 ft away, and only balls hit to CF counted as outs, how would you pitch him? (In other words what kind of pitch ? or even pitch sequence ? is most likely to induce a fly to CF, regardless of the consequences?)

I would pitch him up and right down the middle of the plate. I might want to change speeds, but am not sure about that.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #115 on: November 10, 2005, 05:48:40 am »
Quote:

Wow ? excellent viewpoints and questions. I guess some of what I said was not thought out real well . My bad ?

No doubt where the pitcher intends to locate the pitch has some influence on where the ball will be hit. I occasionally used that as a factor in positioning myself on a given batter. But, really, it was such a small factor compared to things like pitch speed, pitch sequence, nature of the batter, game situation, pitcher?s control, etc. that it?s hard for me to imagine it being used as a staff wide strategy due to the defensive ability of a CF. I know pitch location has a big influence on whether it will be hit on the ground or in the air ? and maybe on the ground to a particular side of the infield, but I?m skeptical about it?s effectiveness at getting a batter to hit the ball in the air to the center of the field. Perhaps my problem with the concept is that I did not reach levels of baseball where pitchers were able to do that with enough consistency to use it as a staff wide strategy. True: I have absolutely no idea whether Clemens, Petite, Oswalt, Backe, et al in fact do this. My experience has been in positioning the defense to the pitcher?s strength rather than pitching to the defense?s strength. Also, I think pitching to prevent a batter from pulling the ball is probably quite a bit easier, more effective and more necessary than pitching to induce a fly ball to the center of the field.

My question to you guys. If you had SuperCF, who could guarantee that he would run down anything hit in the air to CF, and the CF fence was 500 ft away, and only balls hit to CF counted as outs, how would you pitch him? (In other words what kind of pitch ? or even pitch sequence ? is most likely to induce a fly to CF, regardless of the consequences?)

I would pitch him up and right down the middle of the plate. I might want to change speeds, but am not sure about that.





I'm not answering your question, but I was thinking last night that if you played short--and I'm guessing you played short--it probably wouldn't be very helpful to put too much faith in any particular result.  For Jim and HH there was apparently an expectation that a particular pitch made well was going to produce, more or less, a particular result, and that some reasonably significant amount of the time it did.  Or the batter missed it.  Or the batter ignored it.  Or the batter did something that didn't meet their expectation, like sit on it.  Or the pitch wasn't made well.  For the SS, though, I'd think you would position yourself as well as you could with the expectation that actual results may vary.  What we may be seeing here isn't something that you didn't think out well, but just the opposite.  Your thoughts were different for a good reason: a strong expectation wouldn't be real useful to you, and might actually be counterproductive.  Relativity and all that.  I dunno, just a guess, but it seems kinda cool to me that the shortstop, 30 feet back from the pitcher, is playing a slightly different game.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #116 on: November 10, 2005, 09:13:36 am »
Quote:


I would pitch him up and right down the middle of the plate. I might want to change speeds, but am not sure about that.





I don't know if I'd pitch right down the middle, but I'd definitely pitch him up.  I'd probably throw to the outside of the plate.  A pitch up and out is more likely to get hit in the air to CF than one right down the middle, IMO.  But a lot would depend on the hitter too.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #117 on: November 10, 2005, 12:02:12 pm »
Quote:

Wow ? excellent viewpoints and questions. I guess some of what I said was not thought out real well . My bad ?

No doubt where the pitcher intends to locate the pitch has some influence on where the ball will be hit. I occasionally used that as a factor in positioning myself on a given batter. But, really, it was such a small factor compared to things like pitch speed, pitch sequence, nature of the batter, game situation, pitcher?s control, etc. that it?s hard for me to imagine it being used as a staff wide strategy due to the defensive ability of a CF. I know pitch location has a big influence on whether it will be hit on the ground or in the air ? and maybe on the ground to a particular side of the infield, but I?m skeptical about it?s effectiveness at getting a batter to hit the ball in the air to the center of the field. Perhaps my problem with the concept is that I did not reach levels of baseball where pitchers were able to do that with enough consistency to use it as a staff wide strategy. True: I have absolutely no idea whether Clemens, Petite, Oswalt, Backe, et al in fact do this. My experience has been in positioning the defense to the pitcher?s strength rather than pitching to the defense?s strength. Also, I think pitching to prevent a batter from pulling the ball is probably quite a bit easier, more effective and more necessary than pitching to induce a fly ball to the center of the field.

My question to you guys. If you had SuperCF, who could guarantee that he would run down anything hit in the air to CF, and the CF fence was 500 ft away, and only balls hit to CF counted as outs, how would you pitch him? (In other words what kind of pitch ? or even pitch sequence ? is most likely to induce a fly to CF, regardless of the consequences?)

I would pitch him up and right down the middle of the plate. I might want to change speeds, but am not sure about that.





Do this, while watching the Astros, make a note of where every pitch is thrown.  Then note where the ball is eventually hit.  Do it for an entire game and you'll get an idea.  Do it for every game for an entire season and you'll start to understand the patterns.  There isn't one pitch that any pitcher can throw that makes the hit ball go to centerfield.  The strategy is not the same for every batter, or every pitcher. Compare the results of Brad Lidge's high inside fastball to Jim Edmonds and Dan Miceli's high inside fastball to Jim Edmonds in game 5 of the 2004 NLCS.  The batter is also trying to hit the ball.  The sequences I used as illustrations earlier in this thread were not hypotheticals.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #118 on: November 10, 2005, 12:05:24 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

[

 Was Biggio that bad in centerfield?   The consensus now seems to be that Biggio was a huge defensive liability in centerfield, but I remember that then the consensus hereabouts was that Biggio wasn't great in center, but he was at least adequate.  When he moved to left, it was a different story, but in center people were fairly protective.  I don't think at the time anyone would have replaced Biggio with a better defender with no bat.  Maybe I remember things wrong.
 





You remember things correctly.  It's kind of amusing to see the turnaround, particularly given their fervor at the time.





What's amusing is that you don't acknowledge (didn't see?) the difference in the way Biggio played CF in 04 and the way he played in the first half of 05.  Or is it all just lumped together?

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #119 on: November 10, 2005, 01:20:49 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

[

 Was Biggio that bad in centerfield?   The consensus now seems to be that Biggio was a huge defensive liability in centerfield, but I remember that then the consensus hereabouts was that Biggio wasn't great in center, but he was at least adequate.  When he moved to left, it was a different story, but in center people were fairly protective.  I don't think at the time anyone would have replaced Biggio with a better defender with no bat.  Maybe I remember things wrong.
 





You remember things correctly.  It's kind of amusing to see the turnaround, particularly given their fervor at the time.





I don't know, my memory's not that good, and people changing their mind never bothers me much.  I'd note for you, though, that while defensive numbers aren't very useful, they at least indicate that Biggio was fairly consistent in centerfield between  2004 and 2003.  In 2003 he was getting .24826 put outs per inning, in 2004 in centerfield his number dropped to .235088.  I guess that's a significant drop, but you're also talking about the difference between 1313 and 570 innings between the two seasons.  I just don't remember it being anything anyone was particulary worried about at the time. I certainly didn't have the impression that Biggio's horrendous defensive nosedive between 2003 and 2004 was the reason we traded for Beltran, or something that we were talking about here, particularly. Interestingly, as I'd already posted, Taveras had 2.64753 put outs over 1254 innings, which is clearly better, but in 2002 Berkman had 2.39791 in centerfield, so you can make an argument that Biggio was a better defensive centerfielder in 2003 than Berkman in 2002, and wasn't significantly worse than Berkman in 2004. Beltran was much better than Biggio, with .2603 over 772 innings, but worse than Taveras.  Biggio had 1 and 0 errors in 2003 and 2004 respectively, Berkman had 4 errors in 2002, and Beltran had 5 errors in 2004 in CF for the Astros.  I don't know what the error numbers mean, but it probably brings Beltran's performance down a bit, and it makes Taveras's 3 errors over a lot more innings look pretty terrific.  As an aside, I witnessed the most spectacular of those errors live and in person, so it kinda colors my opinion of Taveras.

Most interesting to me is what happens to Biggio when he moves to left:  his put outs drop to .177289 with 9 errors over 570 innings.  Interestingly, Berkman in the 2004 played 608.7 innings in left, and had a lower put-out rate, 1.52785, than Biggio, and I remember thinking that Berkman played left pretty well.  Neither compares to Burke this year with .22 outs per inning.  If the numbers have any meaning, that starts looking really good.

Course as I said, all of that becomes a bit suspect because you don't know whether comparing put outs per inning from year to year and player to player is really comparing apples to apples, but the numbers at least are pretty tangible, and they look right.  Unlike most defensive numbers, there appears to be some real differences between them.  And it seems at least something of a safe assumption that the number of chances is going to be reasonably comparable from year to year.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #120 on: November 10, 2005, 01:27:13 pm »
Okay, I'm going to get jumped on here, but Neil, this is where numbers get you in trouble.  There are no defensive numbers that are going to tell you unequivocally that Biggio was putrid in left field.  

Watching him play that position in 2004, however would tell you another story. Pujols doesn't go first to third on any other left fielder in the game other than Biggio.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #121 on: November 10, 2005, 01:32:37 pm »
Yeah, defensive numbers are crap.  But I think if any number that tells you just how bad Biggio was in left field it was the 9 errors.  I guess the real oddity I saw in the numbers, though, from what I remember actually going on, was Biggio and Berkman in left.  Everything else kinda tracks my memory:  Biggio was pretty adequate in center, Biggio was pretty awful in left, Berkman was pretty adequate in center, Taveras and Beltran were pretty comparable in center.

The other number that I remember was Biggio actually tanked offensively when he moved to left, but I haven't gone back to look it up.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #122 on: November 10, 2005, 01:50:58 pm »
Quote:

Watching him play that position in 2004, however would tell you another story. Pujols doesn't go first to third on any other left fielder in the game other than Biggio.


Nor would any other left fielder allow a baserunner to tag and take third on a routine fly ball.

Also, I don't remember where I read/heard it, but someone was relaying a conversation that Maddux and Mazzone had on the mound a number of years ago. Maddux was in a tight spot and Mazzone went out to ask him how he felt and about his approach to the next batter. Maddux said 'I'm OK - I think I can get this guy to pop out to third base.'

So, yeah, pitchers have a pretty good idea of the result of any properly executed pitch that's put into play.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #123 on: November 10, 2005, 02:26:08 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

[

 Was Biggio that bad in centerfield?   The consensus now seems to be that Biggio was a huge defensive liability in centerfield, but I remember that then the consensus hereabouts was that Biggio wasn't great in center, but he was at least adequate.  When he moved to left, it was a different story, but in center people were fairly protective.  I don't think at the time anyone would have replaced Biggio with a better defender with no bat.  Maybe I remember things wrong.
 





You remember things correctly.  It's kind of amusing to see the turnaround, particularly given their fervor at the time.




I don't know, my memory's not that good, and people changing their mind never bothers me much.  I'd note for you, though, that while defensive numbers aren't very useful, they at least indicate that Biggio was fairly consistent in centerfield between  2004 and 2003.  In 2003 he was getting .24826 put outs per inning, in 2004 in centerfield his number dropped to .235088.  I guess that's a significant drop, but you're also talking about the difference between 1313 and 570 innings between the two seasons.  I just don't remember it being anything anyone was particulary worried about at the time. I certainly didn't have the impression that Biggio's horrendous defensive nosedive between 2003 and 2004 was the reason we traded for Beltran, or something that we were talking about here, particularly. Interestingly, as I'd already posted, Taveras had 2.64753 put outs over 1254 innings, which is clearly better, but in 2002 Berkman had 2.39791 in centerfield, so you can make an argument that Biggio was a better defensive centerfielder in 2003 than Berkman in 2002, and wasn't significantly worse than Berkman in 2004. Beltran was much better than Biggio, with .2603 over 772 innings, but worse than Taveras.  Biggio had 1 and 0 errors in 2003 and 2004 respectively, Berkman had 4 errors in 2002, and Beltran had 5 errors in 2004 in CF for the Astros.  I don't know what the error numbers mean, but it probably brings Beltran's performance down a bit, and it makes Taveras's 3 errors over a lot more innings look pretty terrific.  As an aside, I witnessed the most spectacular of those errors live and in person, so it kinda colors my opinion of Taveras.

Most interesting to me is what happens to Biggio when he moves to left:  his put outs drop to .177289 with 9 errors over 570 innings.  Interestingly, Berkman in the 2004 played 608.7 innings in left, and had a lower put-out rate, 1.52785, than Biggio, and I remember thinking that Berkman played left pretty well.  Neither compares to Burke this year with .22 outs per inning.  If the numbers have any meaning, that starts looking really good.

Course as I said, all of that becomes a bit suspect because you don't know whether comparing put outs per inning from year to year and player to player is really comparing apples to apples, but the numbers at least are pretty tangible, and they look right.  Unlike most defensive numbers, there appears to be some real differences between them.  And it seems at least something of a safe assumption that the number of chances is going to be reasonably comparable from year to year.




I don't have a problem with people changing their mind.  I think it's a good sign, if people can be open-minded.  I think Beltran opened a lot of eyes for some people, about how CF can be played.

Glad your numbers show fairly similar play from Bidge in 2003 and 2004.  I thought he was a crummy CF both years.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #124 on: November 10, 2005, 02:57:37 pm »
Quote:

Okay, I'm going to get jumped on here, but Neil, this is where numbers get you in trouble.  There are no defensive numbers that are going to tell you unequivocally that Biggio was putrid in left field.  

Watching him play that position in 2004, however would tell you another story. Pujols doesn't go first to third on any other left fielder in the game other than Biggio.





Jumped on??  Hell, I'll get in your corner.  That play STILL sticks in my craw.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #125 on: November 10, 2005, 03:43:35 pm »
 
Quote:

As an aside, I witnessed the most spectacular of those errors live and in person, so it kinda colors my opinion of Taveras.
 





Which one are you talking about?

The most horrendous play of the year by Taveras was in Washington when he flat didn't catch the ball (it landed like 15-20 feet away from him). That, however, was not recorded as anything but a hit.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #126 on: November 10, 2005, 03:46:17 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

As an aside, I witnessed the most spectacular of those errors live and in person, so it kinda colors my opinion of Taveras.
 





Which one are you talking about?

The most horrendous play of the year by Tavera was in Washington when he flat didn't catch the ball (it landed like 15-20 feet away from him). That, however, was not recorded as anything but a hit.





That's the one I'm talking about.  I was walking off the ramp at Kennedy onto the upper level as that ball was passing over his head.  That not being an error is an error.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #127 on: November 10, 2005, 03:50:53 pm »
Quote:

That not being an error is an error.




Agreed... a perfect example of how defensive statistics don't amount to much.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #128 on: November 14, 2005, 07:56:17 pm »
Quote:

Quote:


By the way, I'm new here and from reading some posts it appears to me that this is a pretty agressive place. If you don't do your homework and look up stats and read treatises on baseball history and strategy before you post, someone will call you out and rip you a new one. So, before you guys take me to task ... the paragraph above is just my opinion and the stats I quoted are estimates, I have not douuble checked them. If I got something wrong, I apologize.





Everyone has opinions.  But if you're going to throw yours out for public consumption, expect them to be scrutinized.  As long as you're cool with that, all will be fine.




But even if HH agrees with you, you won't know it.  He often argues with himself.  So expect to be scrutinized regardless.  Agreed, HH?  It's the love of the polemic almost more than the game itself we all share.  

Now, disagree with that.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #129 on: November 15, 2005, 11:23:29 am »
Quote:

Not the first time I have been slapped because I couldn't back up my opinion with enough facts...probably won't be the last.  But it is all good.  Next time I will have a few more facts before I make statements like I did.



This is a forum for lively debate.  The only way to debate someone's opinion is to understand the background to the formation of such opinion.  If the background is not provided in the initial post, expect to be interrogated on the subject.
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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #130 on: November 15, 2005, 11:29:23 am »
Quote:

Allright, have it your way.

Thats a good example of an opinion that needs a healthy dinging. "Possibly the most valuable position on the Astros is a good defensive centerfield." More valuable than starting pitching? More valuable than a solid closer? [snip]




Those aren't "positions", those are pitchers.

As for Catcher and Shortstop, I think prav's point is that the MMPUS CF is arguably the hardest CF in all of baseball to play.  It's certainly the deepest, the only one with a ski-jump and the only one with a flagpole.  Therefore, CF is the toughest position for the Astros to fill, because it takes an outfielder with extra-special skills to play there.  Any decent catcher or shortstop could fill those positions on the Astros.
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Hey Limey, re: your avatar... (non-bb) (off-topic)
« Reply #131 on: November 15, 2005, 11:29:36 am »
Limey - have you seen this story?  The Link

Kazakhstan is getting pissed at Borat.  Just thought considering your avatar and quote that you should see this.

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #132 on: November 15, 2005, 11:31:56 am »
Quote:

Quote:

Allright, have it your way.

Thats a good example of an opinion that needs a healthy dinging. "Possibly the most valuable position on the Astros is a good defensive centerfield." More valuable than starting pitching? More valuable than a solid closer? [snip]




Those aren't "positions", those are pitchers.

As for Catcher and Shortstop, I think prav's point is that the MMPUS CF is arguably the hardest CF in all of baseball to play.  It's certainly the deepest, the only one with a ski-jump and the only one with a flagpole.  Therefore, CF is the toughest position for the Astros to fill, because it takes an outfielder with extra-special skills to play there.  Any decent catcher or shortstop could fill those positions on the Astros.





Precisely.  We've seen what can happen when the CF is "just ok".

Limey

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #133 on: November 15, 2005, 12:00:32 pm »
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Beltran didn't start hitting until late and in the playoffs.



Beltran was virtually non-existent on offense in September '04.
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Limey

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Re: Hey Limey, re: your avatar... (non-bb) (off-topic)
« Reply #134 on: November 15, 2005, 12:25:56 pm »
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Limey - have you seen this story?  The Link

Kazakhstan is getting pissed at Borat.  Just thought considering your avatar and quote that you should see this.




Thanks, but I'd seen it.  That was the inspiration for my latest change in avatar/signature.
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shortstop

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Re: Ryan Howard wins NL ROY
« Reply #135 on: November 15, 2005, 08:44:09 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Allright, have it your way.

Thats a good example of an opinion that needs a healthy dinging. "Possibly the most valuable position on the Astros is a good defensive centerfield." More valuable than starting pitching? More valuable than a solid closer? [snip]




Those aren't "positions", those are pitchers.

As for Catcher and Shortstop, I think prav's point is that the MMPUS CF is arguably the hardest CF in all of baseball to play.  It's certainly the deepest, the only one with a ski-jump and the only one with a flagpole.  Therefore, CF is the toughest position for the Astros to fill, because it takes an outfielder with extra-special skills to play there.  Any decent catcher or shortstop could fill those positions on the Astros.





Hummmh ... that's splitting hairs. The same thought crossed my mind before I wrote that, but there's no real doubt that  pitcher is a position. Just like a catcher, they field their position but have other responsibilities.

Strong defense is essential up the middle  - C, SS, 2B, CF. I think that players with the skills to play the type of defense we are talking about at the major league level at C and SS are harder to find than CF. Stated another way, I think CFs with Willy T's defensive skills are more common than guys like Ausmus and Adam Everett. As to which is more valuable to a given team, it's hard to support general statements. For example, it could be argued that great defense at SS and 2B is not that essential because we made our run in 2004 with Vizcaino at SS and Kent at 2B. Plus we won a lot of games years before with Berkman out there in CF, but all of those were much different teams. I can't recall who played CF when we first moved to this ballpark because I lived in DFW at the time. I'm not sure how to factor in MMPUS irregularities into this.

Anyway, as hard to find as great defensive C, 2B, SS and CF are, I think that guys that can consitently produce runs and carry a team offensively at the major league level as well as play adequete defense (such as Ensberg and Berkman) are harder to find. Thus, I am reluctant to agree that "the most valuable position on the Astros is a good defensive centerfield" - even if you eliminate pitchers from consideration. However, I strongly agree that a good defensive CF is very important.  

My question to you is: Do you think that Willy T is "an outfielder with extra-special skills"? He's certainly very fast and has a good arm. I know that he did not play AAA and is still learning. What kind of scouting reports are there on him about his instincts in the OF ... his ability to get a jump when the ball comes off the bat or his ability to track the ball at good angles? I hope he works out for us out there.