Author Topic: Let's talk '06...will there be $$ to bring everyone back?? (Read 21085 times)

wingnut · « **on:** October 27, 2005, 02:07:38 am »

Some of our players are due for big raises:

Pettite from 8.5M to 17.5M (plus 8 Mil)
Oswalt from 5.9M to 11M (plus 5.1 Mil)
Berkman from 10.5M to 14.5M (plus 4.5Mil)
Biggio from 3M to 4M (plus 1Mil)
Bagwell from 15M to 17M (plus 2 Mil)

That's just over 20 million in additional payroll, plus Everett, Ensberg, Lidge, and Wheeler are eligible for arbitration which should be another 5-10 million or so. Finally, Ausmus and Clemens will need new contracts.

Do you think the club stays intact? Will they add payroll and pick up another bat or arm? What should the club do, and more importantly, what do you think the Wallet and Pupura will do?

Navin R Johnson · « **Reply #1 on:** October 27, 2005, 02:10:51 am »

Quote:

That's just over 20 million in additional payroll, plus Everett, Ensberg, Lidge, and Wheeler are eligible for arbitration which should be another 5-10 million or so. Finally, Ausmus and Clemens will need new contracts.

the ticket sales from the last 2 seasons playoff games COULD cover that.

i think Drayton sells the team. Just a gut feeling.

CrawfordBoxes · « **Reply #2 on:** October 27, 2005, 02:12:59 am »

Drayton won't sell shit! But as far as I'm concerned I like this team, I love this team- It was such a fun year but we need to add a damn bat. I think the Grocer needs to Pony Up and field a better hitting team.

Frobie · « **Reply #3 on:** October 27, 2005, 02:20:01 am »

I'm really curious to see what happens to ticket prices next year. Probably went to more games this year than I did in my entire life before, and before they got hot the wife and I were tossing around the idea of buying a nice-sized package for 2006. I only imagine that making it to the circus that is the World Series will stoke interest--which can only be good for the team--but I'm hoping they don't price us out of the market.

UpTooLate · « **Reply #5 on:** October 27, 2005, 02:21:00 am »

Has Ausmus been resigned? IIRC he has not. My gut feeling is that Roger retires, but the team stays intact. Uncle Drayton does not sell the team and uses money saved this year to pony up for a big bat.

wingnut · « **Reply #9 on:** October 27, 2005, 02:29:51 am »

Ausmus hasn't been resigned yet. This club needs more offense from somewhere. I'd actually like them to go after Furcal or Matsui. I think they need to improve on Everrett or Lamb/Burke.

wingnut · « **Reply #15 on:** October 27, 2005, 02:46:17 am »

Like I said, two possibilities are Furcal or Matsui. Furcal is an obvious offensive improvement over Everett. Matsui in LF and Berkman at first would be much better than Berkman and Lamb/Burke.

As for Furcal not being a "good guy." Well, maybe we need a player or two with a little mean streak or chip on their shoulder.

hostros7 · « **Reply #20 on:** October 27, 2005, 11:03:30 am »

We will not get anyone to replace Everett.

I would like to see us get a bat. As great of a season that Ensberg had this year, I don't see him consistently putting up those numbers in the 4 hole. I would rather see him a spot or 2 down in the lineup.

toddthebod · « **Reply #22 on:** October 27, 2005, 11:15:23 am »

As I said in a post a coupled of weeks ago, the Astros aren't going to do anything major next year unless Clemens or Bagwell retire. The Astros are going to count on Lane and Ensberg becoming more mature hitters and Wily T. improving on a very good rookie season. With Berkman and Biggio and hopefully Bagwell contributing, the team has the potential to score runs. Another bat would be nice, but unless Bagwell retires, there is no spot for said bat. The Astros aren't getting rid of Ausmus or Everett -- period.

Andyzipp · « **Reply #23 on:** October 27, 2005, 11:27:16 am »

I agree with Todd, but I think you could make a case for signing a bat and playing them at 3rd, RF, and 1st (or) LF.

Can Konerko still play LF? Are the Astros still interested in Adam Dunn?

T. J. · « **Reply #24 on:** October 27, 2005, 11:29:26 am »

If Clemens comes back, how much is he going to ask for this time?

Andyzipp · « **Reply #25 on:** October 27, 2005, 11:30:07 am »

At least 1 dollar more than he made in 2005.

Froback · « **Reply #31 on:** October 27, 2005, 12:45:44 pm »

I hate to break it to many of you who want this-or-that FA.

Do not expect any "new" additions to the club for next year. You might see some changes to the bench, as you MIGHT see Viz retire (he hinted at that earlier this season).

But here is what I view as the 25-man roster at this point for 2006.

Starters:
C: Ausmus (I could see them letting him walk, but doubt it)
1B: Bagwell (Until he announces his shoulder can't go, he is here)
2B: Biggio (working toward 3000, as long as he is productive)
3B: Ensberg (He was the MVP of the team this year, he just picked a bad time for a cold stretch)
SS: Everett (His glove is too big to just push aside)
LF: Berkman (I really hope the offseason allows him to get SOME mobility back, watching him run was painful)
CF: Taveras (Great Rookie season, but needs to work on making more contact)
RF: Lane (good power, cheap)

Bench:
Lamb (lefty power)
Burke (might get traded, plays 2B/LF/CF)
Bruntlett (super-sub, good pinch-runner)
Palmeiro (comfortable with role, solid bench quality)
Chavez/Quintero (gotta have a back-up C)
Scott (I see Viz retiring, Scott seems like most likely in-house guy)

14 position players. Most likely guy above to be replaced might be OP. That would be due to age and maybe giving a cheaper option a shot... only guy in house I can think of would be Coolbaugh, but see OP being back being the most likely option.

Starting Pitching (going to assume Clemens retires):
Oswalt
Pettitte
Backe
Wandy (To me has shown better potential)
Astacio/Buchholz/Nieve (we have several pitching options that are close)

Bullpen:
Lidge
Wheeler
Qualls (These 3 are easy choices)
Gallo (Seems like best lefty option, still cheap)
Springer (seemed good enough this year to be given a shot in 06)
Burns (most likely candidate to not make it if one the #5 starters moves to Pen)

11 Pitchers.

Guess what guys, there isn't much room for anyone to come into. Now, you can trade away someone and open up a spot, but if you are wanting someone like Giles or Matsui or Konerko, you have to get rid of Bagwell or Lane most likely. While losing them may not be much in your eyes, think about this: Bagwell will NEVER be traded, and he won't "consider" retiring until he has given it a go probably during ST, which means, 0 FAs left to take his slot; And Lane was our #2 HR hitter and #2 RBI guy in 05, even with the "ugly" swings he took. Replacing him will only marginally improve the offense (ie he is not the real hole in the offense).

So I would be very surprised if the 06 Astros didn't look almost exactly like the 05 one, with the possible exception that Clemens won't be with them, and thus they need the younger guys to step up. But in 07 you are looking at what might be alot of changes to the team as certain veterans contracts are up and huge money is comming off the books (ie Bagwell and Pettitte). But unless Pettitte has gone in the tank, I see him re-signing by then. But then again the Astros have a considerable amount of pitching talent that will be at least at AA and AAA next year. Begin to listen for comments about guys like Nieve, Hirsh, and maybe even Patton and Barthmaier.

WulawHorn · « **Reply #32 on:** October 27, 2005, 12:46:19 pm »

I don't see how you can justify another 20 million for Clemens, when he was broken down from Mid August onward. The guys great- I love him etc. etc. however I have nightmares of us signing him for 20 million and getting about 12 starts out of him, capsizing our season next year.

Careful what you wish for on Rocket coming back imo.

WulawHorn · « **Reply #33 on:** October 27, 2005, 12:50:49 pm »

Fro- I think you are spot on about everything that happens.

I know some guys are due raises, but if you are right on Rocket (and I kinda sorta think you are) then I would really like to see Drayton use some of that money on getting another arm in here. Your projected rotation looks like 2 Aces, a 3/4 type, and 2 5 types. The stros don't make the playoffs with that lineup with that many question marks/suspect guys.

WulawHorn · « **Reply #39 on:** October 27, 2005, 01:27:20 pm »

Fro- sure- that team could make the playoffs. But if we go to war with them I'd put those odds around 1/4 or 1/5 which is what I meant by that not making the playoffs. Going into this year I thought we were about a coin flip.

Zan · « **Reply #41 on:** October 27, 2005, 01:41:46 pm »

Dunn would've been a nice mid-season pick-up for the '05 team, but I'm not convinced about him as a long-term solution. Too many whiffs.

I respectfully disagree. In general, I don't necessarily think that whiffs are worse than other forms of outs. The list of top 20 players who struck out the most in a single season reads like a "Who's Who" of Cooperstown. And the bottom line is that Dunn gets on base & mashes.

I personally think Dunn is precisely the long-term solution for our lineup. Where else can we get someone who is:

1)A LF/1b type guy
2)A power-hitter
3)A guy who walks a lot
4)Young and not requesting big dollars way past his prime (ie. Giles)
5)From Houston & therefore inclined to want to stay here.

I don?t think OPS is the end all-be all, but it just so happens that our competitive disadvantage was OPS at the 1b/LF spot (depending where Berkman played). I contend that there is no other player in MLB who is CLOSE to being as good a fit for what this team needs.

Zan · « **Reply #43 on:** October 27, 2005, 01:50:30 pm »

Add to that the increased excitment by the bandwagoners, I think he'll make an interesting move if the right player is available.

Where does Pence fit in? I know he's not starting next season. But will the Wallet be less inclined to pursue a bat in light of said masher being a year or so away from being a potential long-term solution for LF?

Froback · « **Reply #51 on:** October 27, 2005, 03:19:38 pm »

Thankfully, Fans are not incharge of the 25 and 40 man rosters.

wingnut · « **Reply #61 on:** October 27, 2005, 08:19:34 pm »

Well, Drayton was just on TV (Ch. 13 I think) and said that he plans to have the payroll about the same next year as this one. That means they will definitely either make some trades to reduce payroll or not resign Clemens. As my post that started this thread indicated, the $20 million they gave to Clemens last year is already spent on raises for Oswalt, Berkman, Pettite, and Bagwell, so the only way they could keep the team intact is to not re-sign Clemens, or perhaps have Bagwell retire and get an insurance company to pay the remainder of his contract.

JimR · « **Reply #62 on:** October 28, 2005, 12:32:45 am »

"call Koby up in September"

hahahahahahahahahahaha

Astrobabe · « **Reply #64 on:** October 28, 2005, 01:36:01 am »

Change nothing. This team is ready for a comeback. Just my gut feeling.
Roger comes back. Baggy retires but maintains a strong clubhouse presence.

Pay what you have to pay. Ride the enthusiasm to generate more $$$.

Russ99 · « **Reply #65 on:** October 28, 2005, 09:56:35 am »

Drayton's already trying to squeeze the budget. I don't think the Astros can really do anything unless the Clemens and Bagwell millstone contracts are somehow alleviated.

Drayton should renegotiate Bagwell's contract - As much as I love Bags, and as much as he means to the team, 17 million is way too much for a question mark at the plate and in the field. I'd like to see Drayton give him a 10 year personal services contract, and a much smaller base salary, maybe 5-8 mil with lots of reachable incentives, so that if Jeff can play, he'll make more money.

Clemens can't hold the payroll hostage again this year if he wants to come back for another season. I could see something between last year's deal and this year's. His contract this year really kept that extra bat from being a legitimate possibility.

Everyone else should be back except for Viz and OP. Burke could be traded for a missing piece of the puzzle, now that Biggio will be back next year.

Uncle Charlie · « **Reply #67 on:** October 28, 2005, 10:38:44 am »

If Hunsicker gets the job in PHI, history tells us that a HOU-PHI trade or two might take place (Former GM/Asst. GM tandems seem to make trades often).

PHI seems to have a quandry at 1B for the next few years with Thome and Howard. Any thoughts on what it might take to get Howard? Seems like he would fit on this team fairly well.

astrox · « **Reply #78 on:** October 28, 2005, 07:01:04 pm »

Froback,

That was an excellent take, and I think you hit the nail on the head.

astrox · « **Reply #80 on:** October 28, 2005, 07:05:14 pm »

I think Lane will improve as he gains more experience. I also believe that the pressure cooker that was the last 2 months of the season will serve him well in regular season games next year.

Of course I called the Stros to win game 4 "in a laugher" so what the hell do I know??

wingnut · « **Reply #81 on:** October 28, 2005, 08:16:52 pm »

I've always thought that deferring money in a contract was a horseshit thing to do and just set you up for problems in the future. As a matter of fact, I think in addition to his $17 million salary this year, the Astros actually owe Bagwell quite a bit (for some reason $8 million comes to mind) in money that was deferred from '02-'05.

I'm glad the Diamondbacks had these problems, because I think Drayton was heading toward the same thing. I seem to remember some of the other big contracts like Kent and maybe Pettite had deferred money built into them. Funding all of that now could hamper us this season, but it'll set us up for success down the road.

The Third Man · « **Reply #85 on:** October 29, 2005, 06:01:13 am »

I think the '06 Astros are hamstrung by some bad contracts and a not very enticing group of free agents. I don't mind letting Taveres and Lane develop in favor of overpaying for Burnitz-like talent, but if they have a reasonable chance at Adam Dunn they have to go get him. Maybe when the Reds fall out of playoff contention in May the Astros can pull off a package for him. I just think the possibility of getting a young and proven power hitter to put in the middle of Berkman and Ensberg is worth giving up some prospects and dealing with the strikeouts. That's the plan, anyway. I guess I gravitate to the Dunn option because he actually wants to play in Houston and it doesn't appear that we have much young hitting talent in the pipeline. There is no way in hell Paul Konerko will ever play for us. For the more knowledgeable fans around here, how much pitching should we give up for Dunn and what do you guess the Reds would accept?

cc · « **Reply #86 on:** October 29, 2005, 05:39:25 pm »

And I don't how his reverse K's stack up to the other whiff-merchants in baseball over the last two decades, but it seems that an inordinate amount of Dunn's strikeouts were of the called variety. Strikeouts are bad, period. But what does it say, if anything, that a large percentage of his are not from wild swings and misses, but rather from taken pitches? Perhaps it's easier to improve if so many are due to an overly-selective eye? Or perhaps so many strikeouts looking is due to being fooled or caught napping way too often?

Just curious.

homer · « **Reply #87 on:** October 29, 2005, 09:31:05 pm »

Free Agent Tracker:

The Link

S.P. Rodriguez · « **Reply #96 on:** October 31, 2005, 12:19:32 pm »

Further more...

On Ausmus, while I believe they will bring him back (for whatever that's worth), he's going to be 37. It's unlikely he'll be able to catch 80% of the games the way he did down the stretch this year. For that reason, I think it would be a smart move to go after Ramon Hernandez, assuming he has not employed Boras as his agent. Benjie Molina would also be a nice addition but I haven't seen much of him. The only thing I know is Molina is a couple years older than Hernandez. From what I saw of Hernandez, he's quiet behind the plate, frames well, and doesn't mind getting in front of pitches in the dirt (anyone else have an opinion on him, please share as I'm purely amatuer in my observations). Seems like a good replacement for Ausmus, IMO. That also assumes that there aren't a dozen other teams after either player. But the net of it is that Hernandez is a good catcher who can also hit fairly well.

It's a tough call on how the Astros upgrade the offense given the defensive assignments. I'm not jumping on the dump Ausmus bandwagon but at this stage, I think he's a better second/personal catcher for guys like Pettitte and Oswalt or Pettitte and Clemens, if Clemens returns. If you get a guy like Hernandez, who will command a hefty salary, it alleviates some of the offensive needs while not depleting a critical defensive position.

The big obstacles are whether Clemens returns and waiting out Bagwell's situation. No one is going to make either retire. It's arguable whether they will contribute as much as they have in the past but they will contribute. Clemens for <30 starts is still better than Wandy or Zeke for > 30 starts.

Bagwell's in a different situation with his shoulder. I'm not the only one who questions whether he'll ever effectively play the field again. He may opt for a PH role. I'd be shocked but it's feasible. If he does retire, I'd also be surprised if McLane doesn't buy him out instead of expecting him to waive $18mil in the final year of his contract. That's insanity. Hell, at this point, McLane owes so much money to Bagwell, he may as well offer him a share in the club as his buyout.

Anyway, getting back to the point. Clemens is likely to be the more productive player, of the two, next year if he chooses to return. If he retires, I doubt Houston goes after a FA pitcher. Given their history of staying with home grown pitching when an obvious choice isn't available, it's going to be Oswalt, Pettitte, Backe, Wandy, and Zeke. I don't see that as a bad rotation, just not as good as this past seasons.

The key to the pitching staff, IMO, is either keeping Springer or getting another quality arm in the bullpen. A lefty wouldn't hurt but any RP who is effective against lefties is a plus.

On Dunn, it's an incredibly huge assumption that he's going to be available via trade. If he is available in a trade, I can't imagine Cincy not wanting the sun and the moon for him.

While I'm on the topic of pipe-dream trades, the Astros wouldn't be wasting time looking at Aubrey Huff. Again, the D'Rays aren't going to part with him cheaply.

Froback · « **Reply #103 on:** October 31, 2005, 01:16:31 pm »

A response for all you Dunn people:

Adam Dunn is a FA after next season, at that time the Astros will probably have Bagwell Retire (if he doesn't before then). This will open an 1B/LF slot, and if there are no better options and Dunn is reasonable in his contract demands, I would not be surprised to see him in Houston for the 07 season.

But trading for him, Cinci has already shown they are asking for too much for him.

Uncle Charlie · « **Reply #105 on:** October 31, 2005, 01:24:26 pm »

Here are some guys who I 'd like understand their trade cost (in no particular order):

Ryan Howard
Conor Jackson
Lew Ford
David DeJesus
Jason Dubois
Jorge Piedra
Adrian Gonzalez
Andy Marte (move to LF or 1B)
Chad Tracy
Carlos Quentin

Tralfaz · « **Reply #108 on:** October 31, 2005, 01:42:38 pm »

Right, it sure seemed like the Astros were basically done with Chavez when he was sent down to RR. Then Humberto went on th DL and there was no choice but to bring Chavo back into to picture. Ausmus is no question for next year and Clemens will be back because of it.

JimR · « **Reply #113 on:** October 31, 2005, 02:54:04 pm »

they wanted much more than prospects.

JimR · « **Reply #117 on:** October 31, 2005, 03:43:15 pm »

of course he would have cost Lane or Taveras playing time at the time they were negotiating with him.

Bagwell was playing 1B
Berkman would be back around opening day to play LF
Lane was in RF

they were talking about having Burnitz play CF. that is comical, and Taveras would have been in RR.

you are in such a rush to be negative that you revise history to make your current whining appear logical.

Nate in IA · « **Reply #119 on:** October 31, 2005, 03:57:32 pm »

Seems he tore it up in AAA last year after being demoted (can't seem to find any numbers quickly). Any opinions on what he has to do to make the big club next year and stick? Couldn't he be the OF the Astros are looking for should Fat Elvis move to first?

JimR · « **Reply #120 on:** October 31, 2005, 03:59:23 pm »

i think Scott will stick and contribute in 2006.

JimR · « **Reply #123 on:** October 31, 2005, 04:10:22 pm »

dunno. OP, maybe, but i like him as a bench player.

i think Burke will be traded. he proved he can play, but he does not have a position in Houston in 2006.

Andyzipp · « **Reply #124 on:** October 31, 2005, 04:15:22 pm »

Or 2007, unless Biggio gets 215 hits next season.

Nate in IA · « **Reply #125 on:** October 31, 2005, 04:17:13 pm »

I'd like to see Purpura use Burke to plunder some minor leage talent. I think OP stays around for another year but I'm not so sure about Viz. I'd sure love to have both of them on the bench along with Lamb for next year though. Swap Burke for Scott, sounds good to me.

Texifornia · « **Reply #127 on:** October 31, 2005, 04:19:00 pm »

Somehow I don't see Burke being traded, in spite of his value. I believe that 2006 is Biggio's last year as a full time player. He may play beyond that as a bench player to round out his stats (long enough for 3000 hits, at least). The point being: I see Burke as the starting 2nd baseman in 2007, and for a long time after.

JimR · « **Reply #129 on:** October 31, 2005, 04:22:10 pm »

they will not keep Burke on the bench for another year, and he is not the answer in LF.

Brooks Conrad can play.

lc_db · « **Reply #133 on:** October 31, 2005, 04:36:37 pm »

My gut feeling is that Viz doesn't come back, maybe even retires.

Didn't the team have to talk him back to returning after his son was injured?

toddthebod · « **Reply #140 on:** October 31, 2005, 05:15:48 pm »

Jim. How many times did the Fox announcers quote Garner saying that Burke was the best left-fielder in the National League? That was pretty funny. I agree that Burke has no spot on the Astros next season. And his trade value is probably as high as it's going to get. So I think that chances are better than 50% that Burke is traded.

I'd still like to see what it would take to get Overbay.

JimR · « **Reply #141 on:** October 31, 2005, 05:30:56 pm »

Ashby quoted Garner many times to that effect. i think he'll do fine for someone at 2B.

JimR · « **Reply #144 on:** October 31, 2005, 06:22:54 pm »

me either. i think he is done.

JimR · « **Reply #147 on:** October 31, 2005, 07:06:51 pm »

you must see clearly that Burnitz was The Answer, The Key to the Series and would have played CF like Mays.

piss and moan dobro=a poor man's HD

Taras Bulba · « **Reply #152 on:** November 01, 2005, 11:13:48 am »

I was talking with my daughters the other night about Ausmus and what he means to the Astros and to the pitching staff when they asked who was the best catcher of all time. I have always thought of Bench as the gold standard, having seen him play many, many times at the dome and on tv. Any thoughts on Bench compared to catchers of the last twenty or so years, or to Berra, Campanella, Lopez and others?

Author Topic: Let's talk '06...will there be $$ to bring everyone back?? (Read 21085 times)

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