ALCS Rotation

[Texifornia]

My guesses are:

Game 1: Saturday, 10-12: Greinke
Game 2: Sunday, 10-13:  Verlander
Game 3: Tuesday, 10-15: Cole
Game 4: Wednesday, 10-16: Urquidy / James / Johnny Allstaff
Game 5: Thursday, 10-17: Greinke
Game 6: Saturday, 10-19: Verlander
Game 7: Sunday, 10-20: Cole

I've liked Urquidy's stuff the last couple of times out, so I hope he'll start Game 4, but it could be anybody.

[JimR]

My guesses are:

Game 1: Saturday, 10-12: Greinke
Game 2: Sunday, 10-13:  Verlander
Game 3: Tuesday, 10-15: Cole
Game 4: Wednesday, 10-16: Urquidy / James / Johnny Allstaff
Game 5: Thursday, 10-17: Greinke
Game 6: Saturday, 10-19: Verlander
Game 7: Sunday, 10-20: Cole

I've liked Urquidy's stuff the last couple of times out, so I hope he'll start Game 4, but it could be anybody.

My guess is the rotation after game 4 is subject to change for the same reasons JV pitched on short rest. This team will get a huge boost if Greinke can step up and beat the damn Yankees.

[BudGirl]

My guess is the rotation after game 4 is subject to change for the same reasons JV pitched on short rest. This team will get a huge boost if Greinke can step up and beat the damn Yankees.

My WAG is Greinke will have a great game.  And hopefully gets a little bored during it.

[AtascAstro]

Kaplan predicts Miley and Straw will be replaced with Peacock and Abreu for the ALCS.  I'm not sure that I saw enough from Tucker to value his bat over Straw's legs but I guess if you are expecting a lot of offense in the series then better to favor the slugging potential?

[jbm]

These are tough and interesting decisions.  I’m glad AJ and Luhnow are making them.

[TerryPuhl21]

My guess is the rotation after game 4 is subject to change for the same reasons JV pitched on short rest. This team will get a huge boost if Greinke can step up and beat the damn Yankees.

Grienke and how he performs against the Yankees may be the key to the series. I don’t know about his numbers all-time against the Yankees, but his numbers in Yankee Stadium all-time are horrendous. Like, lifetime ERA in Yankee Stadium is over 10 or some crazy number like that. There was a big discussion about this on MLB Radio last week when they were pondering Grienke throwing against the Yankees in game 3 and how bad he’s pitched in that stadium. We may end up being fortunate that he is going game one, but that still potentially leaves him throwing Game 5 in Yankee Stadium.

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[Jacksonian]

Grienke and how he performs against the Yankees may be the key to the series. I don’t know about his numbers all-time against the Yankees, but his numbers in Yankee Stadium all-time are horrendous. Like, lifetime ERA in Yankee Stadium is over 10 or some crazy number like that. There was a big discussion about this on MLB Radio last week when they were pondering Grienke throwing against the Yankees in game 3 and how bad he’s pitched in that stadium. We may end up being fortunate that he is going game one, but that still potentially leaves him throwing Game 5 in Yankee Stadium.

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His last outing in Yankee stadium was the day he was traded.  5IP, 2H, 2ER, 3BB, 7K.  That would be getting it done.

[TerryPuhl21]

His last outing in Yankee stadium was the day he was traded.  5IP, 2H, 2ER, 3BB, 7K.  That would be getting it done.

You are correct. I had forgot about that. If he could duplicate that again I would take it for sure. I wish I could remember that exact lifetime numbers Phillips was quoting but they were not good. As far as I’m concerned, the last outing is the most important. Hopefully Zack can build off of that outing.


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[Knoxbanedoodle]

Kaplan predicts Miley and Straw will be replaced with Peacock and Abreu for the ALCS.  I'm not sure that I saw enough from Tucker to value his bat over Straw's legs but I guess if you are expecting a lot of offense in the series then better to favor the slugging potential?

I can't imagine opting for Tucker over Straw after the LDS. At the end of the slugfest of game 5, legs won it.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

I can't imagine opting for Tucker over Straw after the LDS. At the end of the slugfest of game 5, legs won it.

Tucker has legs too.

[JimR]

Tucker has legs too.

Right. Tucker is a threat on the bases.

[homer]

Tucker and Straw are not comparable in terms of speed. Straw is top 5 in the league. Tucker is 8th on his team. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard

[Texifornia]

Tucker and Straw are not comparable in terms of speed. Straw is top 5 in the league. Tucker is 8th on his team. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard

Tucker is like a giraffe, you're amazed that he can run as fast as he does. Straw is more like a transporter beam; you see a flicker at the beginning, a vague blur in between, and a flicker back to solid form at the end.

[juliogotay]

Marisnick, while not Straw, is fast and an excellent baserunner. Perhaps Hinch is not comfortable having them both taking roster spots in this series.

[JimR]

Tucker and Straw are not comparable in terms of speed. Straw is top 5 in the league. Tucker is 8th on his team. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard

I did not say Tucker is comparable to Straw’s speed, which is elite. I said Tucker can run. He stole 30+ bases in RR, I think.

[homer]

I know the reason it won't change, but at this point it seems like Brantley-Marisnick-Springer is superior to Brantley-Springer-Reddick.

[JimR]

I know the reason it won't change, but at this point it seems like Brantley-Marisnick-Springer is superior to Brantley-Springer-Reddick.

Marisnick have reverted to a K machine. I like the current alignment with Marisnick for late inning defense.

[homer]

Marisnick have reverted to a K machine. I like the current alignment with Marisnick for late inning defense.

Reddick went 1 for 10 with 1 BB and 5K in the LDS. I'm not sure how far the drop off could be with Marisnick.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Marisnick have reverted to a K machine. I like the current alignment with Marisnick for late inning defense.

Same here.

[JimR]

Reddick went 1 for 10 with 1 BB and 5K in the LDS. I'm not sure how far the drop off could be with Marisnick.

A lot. Reddick makes contact; Marisnick does not. Reddick also is an elite defender.

[juliogotay]

So, it might seem that dropping Straw for another bat off of the bench may make sense with Marisnick only being used for pinch-running and/or late inning defense. But what bat would you add? Or would it be a bullpen piece? It does seem Straw is a little bit of a luxury but Hinch/Luhnow have always liked that speed off the bench asset.

[BudGirl]

A lot. Reddick makes contact; Marisnick does not. Reddick also is an elite defender.

I'd love to see Marisnick start, but I know why he doesn't start.  Marisnick and the rest of the team know their roles.

[AtascAstro]

So, it might seem that dropping Straw for another bat off of the bench may make sense with Marisnick only being used for pinch-running and/or late inning defense. But what bat would you add? Or would it be a bullpen piece? It does seem Straw is a little bit of a luxury but Hinch/Luhnow have always liked that speed off the bench asset.

Kaplan presumed replacing Straw with a bullpen arm - Abreu (along with replacing Miley with Peacock).

Tucker's handedness is also a consideration.  He's enough of a slugging threat that you can use him to induce a pitching change - which Hinch did last night.

[BUWebguy]

Greinke career vs NYY:
15 G, 12 GS, 4-4, 5.05, 71.1 IP, 68 H, 40 ER, 55 K, 27 BB

At old Yankee Stadium:
4 G, 3 GS, 0-2, 8.82, 16.1 IP, 26 H, 16 ER, 13 K, 10 BB

At new Yankee Stadium:
2 G, 2 GS, 0-1, 11.57, 7.0 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 7 K, 6 BB

Assuming my math is good, his numbers then vs the Yankees away from NY:
9 G, 7 GS, 4-1, 2.81, 48 IP, 35 H, 15 ER, 35 K, 11 BB

[Astros Fan in Big D]

It's called having a #9 hitter.

2017 was an aberration in that spot.

[TerryPuhl21]

Greinke career vs NYY:
15 G, 12 GS, 4-4, 5.05, 71.1 IP, 68 H, 40 ER, 55 K, 27 BB

At old Yankee Stadium:
4 G, 3 GS, 0-2, 8.82, 16.1 IP, 26 H, 16 ER, 13 K, 10 BB

At new Yankee Stadium:
2 G, 2 GS, 0-1, 11.57, 7.0 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 7 K, 6 BB

Assuming my math is good, his numbers then vs the Yankees away from NY:
9 G, 7 GS, 4-1, 2.81, 48 IP, 35 H, 15 ER, 35 K, 11 BB

Thanks for crunching the numbers Phillips had mentioned. As I said, it may be good fortune that Grienke gets to go game 1 rather than game 3.


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[Bench]

What is the expected Yankees rotation? A cursory google search didn't reveal anything to me.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

AJ says Peacock likely to be on the ALCS roster.

[TeeJoe]

What is the expected Yankees rotation? A cursory google search didn't reveal anything to me.

Top 3 will probably be the same as the Division Series which had, Paxton, Tanaka and Severino. I got nothing but wild guesses after that. Maybe someone else has a better handle on it.

[homer]

What is the expected Yankees rotation? A cursory google search didn't reveal anything to me.

AJ was just lamenting on the press conference that he won't know their final roster or start until tomorrow morning.

[Jacksonian]

Greinke career vs NYY:
15 G, 12 GS, 4-4, 5.05, 71.1 IP, 68 H, 40 ER, 55 K, 27 BB

At old Yankee Stadium:
4 G, 3 GS, 0-2, 8.82, 16.1 IP, 26 H, 16 ER, 13 K, 10 BB

At new Yankee Stadium:
2 G, 2 GS, 0-1, 11.57, 7.0 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 7 K, 6 BB

Assuming my math is good, his numbers then vs the Yankees away from NY:
9 G, 7 GS, 4-1, 2.81, 48 IP, 35 H, 15 ER, 35 K, 11 BB

Useless information.  Nearly all of that was from his time with the Royals, a decade ago and more.  His last bad outing against them was in 2011 when he was a Brewer.

In 2013 he went 7 and gave up 2.  In 2016 he went 7 and gave up 3.

This year he had the game in New York but also a game in Arizona in April.  7+ IP, 1ER. 

[Bench]

Top 3 will probably be the same as the Division Series which had, Paxton, Tanaka and Severino. I got nothing but wild guesses after that. Maybe someone else has a better handle on it.

Boone says it will be Tanaka, Paxton and Severino.

[subnuclear]

Abreau and Peacock on the roster, Miley off.

[JimR]

Abreau and Peacock on the roster, Miley off.

and Straw

[HudsonHawk]

Miley's collapse has hamstrung this team in more ways than one.  I'm disappointed they won't have Straw for a pinch running opportunity, and I have to believe they could have easily kept him and gone with an 8-man pen had they a competent 4th starter.

[JimR]

Miley's collapse has hamstrung this team in more ways than one.  I'm disappointed they won't have Straw for a pinch running opportunity, and I have to believe they could have easily kept him and gone with an 8-man pen had they a competent 4th starter.

Do not think I agree. The move was to get more RHP for NYY. Miley, good or bad, is LH.

[HudsonHawk]

Do not think I agree. The move was to get more RHP for NYY. Miley, good or bad, is LH.

I understand why they replaced Miley with a righthander now, but I still think if Miley had still been pitching well he'd be the starter for Game 4 and they would not have needed to swap Straw for Abreu.

[JimR]

I understand why they replaced Miley with a righthander now, but I still think if Miley had still been pitching well he'd be the starter for Game 4 and they would not have needed to swap Straw for Abreu.

They would have had the same need for RHP in the pen.

[HudsonHawk]

They would have had the same need for RHP in the pen.

My thought was that they wouldn't need as many guys in the pen.  And you could easily swap out Rondon if you wanted Peacock, for example. 

Moot point now though. 

[JimR]

My thought was that they wouldn't need as many guys in the pen.  And you could easily swap out Rondon if you wanted Peacock, for example. 

Moot point now though.

Swap a RHP for a RHP? Come on.