All I see so far is an offseason going very badly.
Keuchel and Marwin are good as gone - at least that was expected.
Morton's departure is a crucial blow and the alternatives in the market for the rotation are dwindling rapidly.
Chirinos does nothing to reassure me at the catcher situation, and I didn't consider Stassi's audition for the full-time gig a success.
We just lost two decent prospects to Rule 5.
Convince me this offseason is going better than I think, because it seems pretty damn bleak so far.
You sir, deserve some answers and I'm here to offer the glass half full response. Mind you, others will say it's half empty as well so there is that. Be that as it may, here is my attempt knowing full well the off-season is not done yet so there is that as well. Here we go, cue the Pollyanna music!
1. The lost of three starters (Keuchel, Morton, and McCullers) - Let's begin with McCullers and Morton and what I saw was their forte. Both spotted their fastball in order to use a breaking pitch, namely a deadly curve or on occasion changeup (this is an off speed pitch moreso than breaking pitch, but I digress). I saw Morton kind of shelve the curveball towards the end of the season and use the four seamer more. It's not a bad idea given how the neo MLB hitter is using launch angle more often, but if you wish, Morton and Mike Fiers were no different in that regard - guys who lived and died with the four seamer high in the strike zone. The best CFM that pitched for the Houston Astros was the one who used his curveball and had hitters guessing what pitch he was going to use. I know what it's like to pitch with a hurt shoulder and any pitch you throw hurts a lot. But a curveball is hurts a lot more. I wish I knew for sure that CFM will be the same pitcher for the Rays that he was for the Astros, but if he shelves the curveball more and more, he's going to have to refine the location of his four seamer more and more to be as successful as he has been. When a shoulder is the inury he dealt with, it's a proceed with caution situation. McCullers? Well he's just a young bull-headed kid pitcher that is still learning the craft of pitching in the majors. So let's take a look at what you do to replace Morton and McCullers: Colin McHugh, a 31 year old pitcher who doesn't throw as hard as Morton, but has an impressive enough fastball and locates it really well. He has a killer side to side curveball too and to me, he can be as good a #4 as Charlie was last year, if not slightly better. I love CFM, but not willing to go too far with that admiration to be blinded to reality that just maybe McHugh might be a better #4 for Houston this year. Just saying. McCullers at #5 - young, hard thrower, not necessarily good location on his pitches including his fastball (I saw him walk way too many hitters that made him have to throw more pitches to end innings without a lot of damage. For a #5 that's not bad, it's pretty much expected some times. So if I'm looking for a young, stuff throwing pitcher at #5 that needs improvement on location to cut down the amount of pitches thrown before reaching the 5th or 6th inning then I'm looking at Josh James, Forest Whitley, JB Bukastas or Framer Valdes. The other option is using a journeyman starter floating around that can allow for more seasoning on the young kids. You do this to start the season knowing full well you're going to eventually replace that journeyman (think of guys like Doug Fister) in time with James/Whitley/Valdez.
This leads to the issue as I see it - the #3 starter and Dallas Keuchel. This is an issue for Houston because even if Dallas is on the downward slope of his career, he hasn't shown anything that tells me he won't log the innings you need out of this slot in the rotation. This is critical to keep the bullpen from dying before the season is over. You need an inning eater here because you're going to need the bullpen for #4 and #5 a lot more. So who is out there that can replace Keuchel? I dunno either, JA Happ was my choice but he's also an older pitcher and you can't give a guy like that too many years. I believe the Astros know this and if they don't find a legit #3 (Kluber is not a #3 but man Kluber at #3 is killer because it then goes beyond eating innings at that slot - you have three ACES at this point - but I digress again). So if you go with a Peacock or McHugh at #3 and #4, one of them have to eat innings. Else here is your Plan B - shore up the bullpen to be full of great arms day in and day out to survive the season or at least make it until the trading deadline when you'll know what you need to do to answer this issue that may be early in the season (bullpen abuse).
2. Catcher - I admit, I was spoiled on two fronts with Brian McCann in 2017. Okay three fronts: Offense, Defense and Leadership. The Astros offense is predicated on contact hitting and not taking wild swings at pitches. McCann in 2017 did this well as the lower of the lineup hitter for the Astros. This made the offense really click because as a pitcher, you *HAD* to pitch to everyone and time and time again the Astros wore out the opposing team before nine innings were complete. 2018 though, the bottom of the lineup was not the same with McCann out and even when McCann returned. Stassi showed some promise but he also started to struggle and basically became a non-factor on offense until he basically lost his job. He has things to work on offensively and that all relates to contact hitting. On defense and pitch framing, I have no issues with Stassi other than perhaps not having a really strong arm. But many teams do not employ a running game (other than the BoSox) so is the strong arm really an issue? Maldanado had that cannon arm but how much did it come into play to winning games? I would say it helped but the reality Houston had problems on offense with no Altuve and Correa that carrying a no bat option like Maldanado became an issue. So what do the Astros have now? Well call me unimpressed with Chirinos except on one front that McCann provided in 2017: Leadership. I saw the frustration on JV's face with the Stassi combination far too much. Meaning I don't believe the trust in Stassi by the pitchers was that high because they knew he was learning on the go how to be a major league starter. Chirinos? I saw more Texas Ranger games than I care to mention last year. Chirinos was a leader on a team that missed Beltre's presence for most of the season. He's a decent catcher, calls an okay game, but continued to provide a lot of toughness as the everyday Ranger backstop. There is no questioning his desire and toughness, it's his major league skills at defense and offense that concern most of us. I tend to think that if the Astros can find an answer at backstop that provides a little more of what 2017 McCann did than what 2018 McCann did, they'd be very happy. But then again, what was so special about the BoSox receivers? Not much other than provide stability and don't lose games for us. To use a mixed sports metaphor - It's like a Super Bowl quality team that employs a quarterback that is tasked with the following - just don't do anything stupid to lose games for us, we'll win with defense and overall team play. Having said that, there is Garrett Stubbs waiting in the wings and he just may be next year's Tony Kemp or Tyler White - guys who are good contact hitting guys. Again, that's Houston offense and he has that makeup. Launch angle be damned.
3. Impact Bat - How man times did I hear media pundits opine about Houston's offense and say something like this "This is a great offense that gets absolutely nothing from the DH role". Well that's because they don't understand that if your offense is predicated on contact, the DH being Tyler White or even Tony Kemp at times makes sense. Having said that, losing Altuve, Correa and Springer for a fair amount of the season (and in Correa's case, I saw his broken swing early, so he was dealing with a bad back sooner than was let on - IMHO) exposed how guys like Reddick, Bregman, and Gurriel were going to have to do somethings that they were not asked to do prior in this offense. Reddick and Gurriel had up and down seasons and moreso Reddick. I saw Reddick doing the launch angle thing more and more instead of contact hitting swings. In short, even though collectively the Astros offense did well and was one of the best in the majors, it wasn't the consistent offense we were used to. Perhaps because of Bregman's coming out party, elevating him to MVP consideration, was key last year to be in the position they were in offensively - still a feared team. But not like 2017 - control Bregman and Springer, that controls the 2018 Astros. That pretty much what the BoSox did... oh, and Joe West too. But I digress.
So what they need this offseason (and don't wait until the trading deadline) is an impact bat. Said bat has to be similar to what they employed in 2017 offensively (and what Bregman did in 2018): Contact hit, hit with power on occasion, don't strikeout, keep the line moving. I figure this is the priority this off-season and this will be something they are really stoking the fires in free agency and trades. Goldschmidt was the prefect fit with the added bonus of power in that bat. Now that this option is out, they have to continue to do the work to find said bat and outfield seems to be the only place you can make the move. DH? Again, Tyler White's work was contact hitting and don't be a hole in the lineup and it really helped last year. The occasional power from White towards the Crawford Boxes but also the ability to hit high speed pitches is a big plus. Some of the hitters that are free agents who hit high speed pitches well? Well, there was McCutchen. But one of the best that you cannot sneak the cheese by is AJ Pollock. Is say you pull off a trade for an outfielder or free agent acquisition for that impact bat, you are addressing the big priority to get back to 2017 success instead of having to rely on a Bregman 2018 performance from one bat. The post-season plays better with a complete offense instead of being carried by one or two players. I know there is talk about a slugger at DH like Nelson Cruz, but if you get an offense where pundits are saying "They are a great offense getting no power from the DH role!", I for one would love that. Besides, by the trading deadline, you can find a slugger for the DH role if you need him.
