Arb-Eligible Players 2018

[Nate Colbert]

MLBTR with their annual stab at guesstimating how much players will earn in arbitration for 2019 (amounts in paren are what they earned in 2018)...

Gerrit Cole – $13.1MM   ($6.75MM)
Roberto Osuna – $6.5MM   ($5.3MM)
Collin McHugh – $5.4MM   ($5.0MM)
Carlos Correa – $5.1MM   ($1.0MM)
Lance McCullers – $4.6MM   ($2.45MM)
Will Harris – $3.6MM  ($2.8MM)
Ryan Pressly – $3.1MM   ($1.6MM)
Brad Peacock – $2.9MM   ($2.44MM)
Jake Marisnick – $2.4MM   ($1.9MM)
Chris Devenski – $1.4MM  ($0.6MM)

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2019.html

If all these guys returned (doubtful--you can certainly envision trade scenarios for Harris, Peacock and perhaps Devo), the impact on overall team payroll would be an increase of $18.3MM.

[BudGirl]

MLBTR with their annual stab at guesstimating how much players will earn in arbitration for 2019 (amounts in paren are what they earned in 2018)...

Gerrit Cole – $13.1MM   ($6.75MM)
Roberto Osuna – $6.5MM   ($5.3MM)
Collin McHugh – $5.4MM   ($5.0MM)
Carlos Correa – $5.1MM   ($1.0MM)
Lance McCullers – $4.6MM   ($2.45MM)
Will Harris – $3.6MM  ($2.8MM)
Ryan Pressly – $3.1MM   ($1.6MM)
Brad Peacock – $2.9MM   ($2.44MM)
Jake Marisnick – $2.4MM   ($1.9MM)
Chris Devenski – $1.4MM  ($0.6MM)

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2019.html

If all these guys returned (doubtful--you can certainly envision trade scenarios for Harris, Peacock and perhaps Devo), the impact on overall team payroll would be an increase of $18.3MM.

Most seem reasonable amounts but I don't know that Correa would get that much.

[MusicMan]

IIRC, Harris has a team option.


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[Nate Colbert]

IIRC, Harris has a team option.

Previously discussed over in the Rule 5 thread. It's a club option for $5.5MM. If the Astros don't pick it up (and they won't), it reverts to an arbitration case at that point.

[Nate Colbert]

MLBTR is pretty accurate on these predictions. Some examples from last year:

Dallas Keuchel  – $12.6MM predicted vs $13.2MM actually received
Evan Gattis  – $6.6MM predicted vs $6.7MM actually received
Collin McHugh  – $4.8MM predicted vs $5MM actually received
Brad Peacock  – $2.9MM predicted vs $2.44MM actually received
Jake Marisnick  – $2.0MM predicted vs $1.9MM actually received
Ken Giles  – $5.0MM predicted vs $4.6MM actually received
Lance McCullers  – $2.6MM predicted vs $2.45MM actually received

[austro]

If all these guys returned (doubtful--you can certainly envision trade scenarios for Harris, Peacock and perhaps Devo), the impact on overall team payroll would be an increase of $18.3MM.

Although it will make me sad, I don't think Marisnick will be back. I suspect Tucker will get the lion's share of time in LF spot, with Kemp as the 4th outfielder getting some starts in LF and CF, and Straw taking the 5th outfielder defensive whiz spot. Or maybe Marisnick will start the season with the Stros but find himself as trade bait later on. As with the pitching, at some point Luhnow is going to turn some of these roster spots over to up-and-coming prospects.

[Nate Colbert]

Although it will make me sad, I don't think Marisnick will be back. I suspect Tucker will get the lion's share of time in LF spot, with Kemp as the 4th outfielder getting some starts in LF and CF, and Straw taking the 5th outfielder defensive whiz spot. Or maybe Marisnick will start the season with the Stros but find himself as trade bait later on. As with the pitching, at some point Luhnow is going to turn some of these roster spots over to up-and-coming prospects.

As far as Kemp vs Marisnick for a backup OF spot, it's important to keep in mind that Kemp has no options remaining while Jake still has one. Big factor in favor of Marisnick in terms of roster flexibility. If a trade does occur, I think it's more likely that Kemp is the one going.

(And not that anybody asked, but Marisnick is just 7 months older than Kemp.)

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

As far as Kemp vs Marisnick for a backup OF spot, it's important to keep in mind that Kemp has no options remaining while Jake still has one. Big factor in favor of Marisnick in terms of roster flexibility. If a trade does occur, I think it's more likely that Kemp is the one going.

(And not that anybody asked, but Marisnick is just 7 months older than Kemp.)

I could see Kemp (and possibly White) used as a trade chip.

[Nate Colbert]

I could see Kemp (and possibly White) used as a trade chip.

Yep.

[juliogotay]

I could see Kemp (and possibly White) used as a trade chip.

Those guys strike me as the type more valuable to the Astros than what they would bring back in deals.

[moriartp]

Those guys strike me as the type more valuable to the Astros than what they would bring back in deals.

I agree. I guess I could see White getting traded if they acquire a more established 1B/DH, but I'd bet on both guys being on the OD roster next year.

[toddthebod]

Yep.

For what?  Minor league prospects?  No thanks.

[Nate Colbert]

I agree. I guess I could see White getting traded if they acquire a more established 1B/DH, but I'd bet on both guys being on the OD roster next year.

Like Kemp, White is out of options. If they're both on the OD roster, then you're making the bet on both that they'll remain on the 25-man roster the entire year. I like both players and aren't advocating for getting rid of them but I can see a possible scenario over the winter where Luhnow trades 'em because (A) they may be at their maximum trade value (B) better to get something for them now rather than run the risk of losing them later and get nothing in return and  (C) as part of a package targeting MLB-ready player(s) to being received in return who have options remaining.

[VirtualBob]

Like Kemp, White is out of options. If they're both on the OD roster, then you're making the bet on both that they'll remain on the 25-man roster the entire year. I like both players and aren't advocating for getting rid of them but I can see a possible scenario over the winter where Luhnow trades 'em because (A) they may be at their maximum trade value (B) better to get something for them now rather than run the risk of losing them later and get nothing in return and  (C) as part of a package targeting MLB-ready player(s) to being received in return who have options remaining.

This.

[moriartp]

It's a bet I'd make. Neither one faces a huge chance of getting bumped off the roster, especially with Marwin and Gattis hitting free agency. League-minimum guys will be more valuable with a big chunk of the team getting arbitration raises, too. And I think both have the talent to hold their roster spots all year. No doubt Luhnow would trade either if the right deal appeared, but I don't think he'll be looking to move them.

[juliogotay]

If Marwin is not back next year, and I have to think he won't be (which I hate), you need some guys that can play several positions. White (1B, 3B), Kemp, (LF, 2B) fill some of Marwin's backup spots.  I don't know of another guy that can do what Marwin does with the offensive production he does. Most "utility" guys aren't big producers. One of Luhnow's first acquisitions.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Like Kemp, White is out of options. If they're both on the OD roster, then you're making the bet on both that they'll remain on the 25-man roster the entire year. I like both players and aren't advocating for getting rid of them but I can see a possible scenario over the winter where Luhnow trades 'em because (A) they may be at their maximum trade value (B) better to get something for them now rather than run the risk of losing them later and get nothing in return and  (C) as part of a package targeting MLB-ready player(s) to being received in return who have options remaining.

Thank you.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

If Marwin is not back next year, and I have to think he won't be (which I hate), you need some guys that can play several positions. White (1B, 3B), Kemp, (LF, 2B) fill some of Marwin's backup spots.  I don't know of another guy that can do what Marwin does with the offensive production he does. Most "utility" guys aren't big producers. One of Luhnow's first acquisitions.

I kinda want them to give Marwin the QO.  It's higher than his market value ($17.8MM, I think), but you could at least keep him around during Verlander's final contract year.  Players like King Marwin don't just grow on trees.

[DVauthrin]

If Marwin is not back next year, and I have to think he won't be (which I hate), you need some guys that can play several positions. White (1B, 3B), Kemp, (LF, 2B) fill some of Marwin's backup spots.  I don't know of another guy that can do what Marwin does with the offensive production he does. Most "utility" guys aren't big producers. One of Luhnow's first acquisitions.

I think Marwin has a better chance of returning than we think.  Hinch loves him and his versatility, he's respected in the clubhouse, and has proven he can shine in big playoff moments. 

[BlownRanger]

I think Marwin has a better chance of returning than we think.  Hinch loves him and his versatility, he's respected in the clubhouse, and has proven he can shine in big playoff moments.

Didn't I read somewhere on here that Justice was on national radio predicting Marwin would be an Astro next season?

[JimR]

I think Marwin has a better chance of returning than we think.  Hinch loves him and his versatility, he's respected in the clubhouse, and has proven he can shine in big playoff moments.

Marwin also is part of the Bregman Gang. I think he will stay.

[geezerdonk]

Failing to re-up Marwin would be a Martinez Magnitude Mistake.

[JimR]

Failing to re-up Marwin would be a Martinez Magnitude Mistake.

All they can do is offer and hope he wants to stay. Letting him walk would be the mistake. They will not do that.

[juliogotay]

Didn't I read somewhere on here that Justice was on national radio predicting Marwin would be an Astro next season?

https://www.mlb.com/video/the-rundown-on-marwin-gonzalez/c-2515252183?tid=7417714

[Navin R Johnson]

My money is on Marwin not being here next year, hope I’m wrong.

[austro]

My money is on Marwin not being here next year, hope I’m wrong.

In the past, I used to worry about players leaving for a team where they would have a better shot at a championship. But now the Astros are that team. I think that's a significant factor in their favor.

[Mr. Happy]

In the past, I used to worry about players leaving for a team where they would have a better shot at a championship. But now the Astros are that team. I think that's a significant factor in their favor.

This is an excellent point.

[JimR]

My money is on Marwin not being here next year, hope I’m wrong.

I’ll bet you a beer he is.

[juliogotay]

In the past, I used to worry about players leaving for a team where they would have a better shot at a championship. But now the Astros are that team. I think that's a significant factor in their favor.

But if they already have a ring, or two, $$$ not king? I suppose priorities are different from player-to-player.

[Limey]

But if they already have a ring, or two, $$$ not king? I suppose priorities are different from player-to-player.

I think most of them will prefer winning, because it's better than losing.  There's only a handful - if that many - teams that will compete for and in the post-season, so the options to leave and be on a competitive, winning team are very limited.  Maybe some of them are swayable with money and promises of being the face of the franchise, but it will have to be a pretty sweet deal, IMHO, to snag an Astro unless the team is significantly under-paying them*.

* In which case they are the player that the team has deemed expendable due to payroll constraints.

[juliogotay]

Speaking of Marwin….this from the Sheriff over at AstrosCounty: Here's my Good Guy Marwin Gonzalez story: When I was down in Houston on vacation, he was doing an autograph signing and they had some thing that was like "first X amount of people for sure will get to meet Marwin." I got there late because I don't live in Houston. In fact, I don't live anywhere close to Houston, so I got there late because I didn't know where I was going and I was definitely not in the first X amount of people. He ended up staying and signing things for everyone who showed up to that session. It was supposed to be an hour long autograph session that started at noon, I met him around 1:15, and there was still probably another 20-30 people behind me. We might have some superstars, perhaps even some future Hall of Famers, but Marwin Gonzalez will always be my favorite Astro.

[Navin R Johnson]

I’ll bet you a beer he is.

Deal, and I’m hope I end up being the one buying.

[BlownRanger]

I think most of them will prefer winning, because it's better than losing.  There's only a handful - if that many - teams that will compete for and in the post-season, so the options to leave and be on a competitive, winning team are very limited.  Maybe some of them are swayable with money and promises of being the face of the franchise, but it will have to be a pretty sweet deal, IMHO, to snag an Astro unless the team is significantly under-paying them*.

* In which case they are the player that the team has deemed expendable due to payroll constraints.

The players' union still puts tremendous pressure on these guys to take the most money offered.  Doesn't mean they all do it, but the pressure is there.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

The players' union still puts tremendous pressure on these guys to take the most money offered.  Doesn't mean they all do it, but the pressure is there.

Remember how much noise the Union made when Singleton took his "lowball" deal?

[Nate Colbert]

Previously discussed over in the Rule 5 thread. It's a club option for $5.5MM. If the Astros don't pick it up (and they won't), it reverts to an arbitration case at that point.

Confirmed...

Jeff Passan  @JeffPassan 5m ago
Source: The Houston Astros declined the $5.5 million option on reliever Will Harris. Because he's not at six years of service, he remains under club control, and the Astros can retain him by offering him a deal by the Nov. 30 tender deadline.

[Nate Colbert]

The new guy makes 11 arb-eligible players...

Gerrit Cole – $13.1MM   ($6.75MM)
Roberto Osuna – $6.5MM   ($5.3MM)
Collin McHugh – $5.4MM   ($5.0MM)
Carlos Correa – $5.1MM   ($1.0MM)
Lance McCullers – $4.6MM   ($2.45MM)
Will Harris – $3.6MM  ($2.8MM)
Ryan Pressly – $3.1MM   ($1.6MM)
Brad Peacock – $2.9MM   ($2.44MM)
Jake Marisnick – $2.4MM   ($1.9MM)
Chris Herrmann--$1.5MM (n/a)
Chris Devenski – $1.4MM  ($0.6MM)

MLBTR 2019 estimate vs 2018 salary

[Astros Fan in Big D]

Nate,  thanks for keeping up with all this.

[Fredia]

just trying to wrap my mind around all this and what the team might look like next season

[Nate Colbert]

The new guy makes 11 arb-eligible players...

Gerrit Cole – $13.1MM   ($6.75MM)
Roberto Osuna – $6.5MM   ($5.3MM)
Collin McHugh – $5.4MM   ($5.0MM)
Carlos Correa – $5.1MM   ($1.0MM)
Lance McCullers – $4.6MM   ($2.45MM)
Will Harris – $3.6MM  ($2.8MM)
Ryan Pressly – $3.1MM   ($1.6MM)
Brad Peacock – $2.9MM   ($2.44MM)
Jake Marisnick – $2.4MM   ($1.9MM)
Chris Herrmann--$1.5MM (n/a)
Chris Devenski – $1.4MM  ($0.6MM)

MLBTR 2019 estimate vs 2018 salary

For those scoring at home, that's $49.6MM in total payroll if all 11 players are on the opening day roster and the MLBTR estimates are accurate.

[Nate Colbert]

The new guy makes 11 arb-eligible players...

Gerrit Cole – $13.1MM   ($6.75MM)
Roberto Osuna – $6.5MM   ($5.3MM)
Collin McHugh – $5.4MM   ($5.0MM)
Carlos Correa – $5.1MM   ($1.0MM)
Lance McCullers – $4.6MM   ($2.45MM)
Will Harris – $3.6MM  ($2.8MM)
Ryan Pressly – $3.1MM   ($1.6MM)
Brad Peacock – $2.9MM   ($2.44MM)
Jake Marisnick – $2.4MM   ($1.9MM)
Chris Herrmann--$1.5MM (n/a)
Chris Devenski – $1.4MM  ($0.6MM)

MLBTR 2019 estimate vs 2018 salary

Silly, yes, but MLBTR lists Marisnick as a non-tender candidate.

Also, Herrmann.

[Nate Colbert]

All 11 arb-eligible players will get tendered, says Luhnow on Astroline. Qualifier: that's the plan "at this point".

[VirtualBob]

All 11 arb-eligible players will get tendered, says Luhnow on Astroline. Qualifier: that's the plan "at this point".

Operative phrase, apparently, was "at this point"

The Astros have non-tendered Herman. Little doubt now that a move for a catcher is in the works.

...

[Nate Colbert]

With the number of arb-eligible players back down to 10, the revised amount in total payroll if all 10 players are on the opening day roster (or 60-day DL in LMJ's case) and the MLBTR estimates are accurate is $48.1MM (previously: $49.6MM).

Gerrit Cole – $13.1MM   ($6.75MM)
Roberto Osuna – $6.5MM   ($5.3MM)
Collin McHugh – $5.4MM   ($5.0MM)
Carlos Correa – $5.1MM   ($1.0MM)
Lance McCullers – $4.6MM   ($2.45MM)
Will Harris – $3.6MM  ($2.8MM)
Ryan Pressly – $3.1MM   ($1.6MM)
Brad Peacock – $2.9MM   ($2.44MM)
Jake Marisnick – $2.4MM   ($1.9MM)
Chris Herrmann--$1.5MM (n/a)
Chris Devenski – $1.4MM  ($0.6MM)

MLBTR 2019 estimate vs 2018 salary


The 2019 Payroll thread will also (eventually) be adjusted accordingly.

[Nate Colbert]

Astros have settled with Peacock and Pressly...

Gerrit Cole – $13.1MM   ($6.75MM)
Roberto Osuna – $6.5MM   ($5.3MM)
Collin McHugh – $5.4MM   ($5.0MM)
Carlos Correa – $5.1MM   ($1.0MM)
Lance McCullers – $4.6MM   ($2.45MM)
Will Harris – $3.6MM  ($2.8MM)
Ryan Pressly – $3.1MM   ($1.6MM) Actual: $2.9MM
Brad Peacock – $2.9MM   ($2.44MM) Actual: $3.11MM
Jake Marisnick – $2.4MM   ($1.9MM)
Chris Herrmann--$1.5MM (n/a)
Chris Devenski – $1.4MM  ($0.6MM)

MLBTR 2019 estimate vs 2018 salary vs 2019 agreed salary

[Bench]

Lance's arbitration settled for $4.1mm.

[Nate Colbert]

LMJ sorted out as Bench noted...

Gerrit Cole – $13.1MM   ($6.75MM)
Roberto Osuna – $6.5MM   ($5.3MM)
Collin McHugh – $5.4MM   ($5.0MM)
Carlos Correa – $5.1MM   ($1.0MM)
Lance McCullers – $4.6MM   ($2.45MM)  Actual: $4.1MM
Will Harris – $3.6MM  ($2.8MM)
Ryan Pressly – $3.1MM   ($1.6MM)  Actual: $2.9MM
Brad Peacock – $2.9MM   ($2.44MM)  Actual: $3.11MM
Jake Marisnick – $2.4MM   ($1.9MM)
Chris Herrmann--$1.5MM (n/a)
Chris Devenski – $1.4MM  ($0.6MM)

MLBTR 2019 estimate vs 2018 salary vs 2019 agreed salary

[Nate Colbert]

Will Harris has settled...

Gerrit Cole – $13.1MM   ($6.75MM)
Roberto Osuna – $6.5MM   ($5.3MM)
Collin McHugh – $5.4MM   ($5.0MM)
Carlos Correa – $5.1MM   ($1.0MM)
Lance McCullers – $4.6MM   ($2.45MM)  Actual: $4.1MM
Will Harris – $3.6MM  ($2.8MM)  Actual: $4.225MM
Ryan Pressly – $3.1MM   ($1.6MM)  Actual: $2.9MM
Brad Peacock – $2.9MM   ($2.44MM)  Actual: $3.11MM
Jake Marisnick – $2.4MM   ($1.9MM)
Chris Herrmann--$1.5MM (n/a)
Chris Devenski – $1.4MM  ($0.6MM)

MLBTR 2019 estimate vs 2018 salary vs 2019 agreed salary

[Nate Colbert]

Marisnick, McHugh and Osuna also settled (though salary info has yet to be shared) leaving Cole, Correa and Devo to go to hearings.

[moriartp]

Has Correa actually accepted any contract from the Astros since agreeing to his draft bonus? He’s made them renew him each year, right?

[Nate Colbert]

Has Correa actually accepted any contract from the Astros since agreeing to his draft bonus? He’s made them renew him each year, right?

Cots says they've all been renewals.

[Nate Colbert]

Astros with 3 of the 15 unsettled cases at this stage...

Jeff Passan  @JeffPassan 3m ago
The full list of players who did not reach arbitration settlement, per league sources:
- Arenado
- Barraclough
- Bauer
- Cole
- Correa
- Devenski
- Fulmer
- McFarland
- Nola
- Pham
- Severino
- Taylor
- Tepera
- Treinen
- Wood

[Nate Colbert]

Cole's exchanged figures per Heyman...

Gerrit Cole – $13.1MM   ($13.5MM vs $11.425MM)
Roberto Osuna – $6.5MM 
Collin McHugh – $5.4MM 
Carlos Correa – $5.1MM   
Lance McCullers – $4.6MM   Actual: $4.1MM
Will Harris – $3.6MM  Actual: $4.225MM
Ryan Pressly – $3.1MM   Actual: $2.9MM
Brad Peacock – $2.9MM   Actual: $3.11MM
Jake Marisnick – $2.4MM
Chris Devenski – $1.4MM

MLBTR 2019 estimate vs 2019 agreed salary (or exchanged figures)

[JimR]

Fuck. Take Cole to a hearing? We should want to extend him, not fight with him.

[Waldo]

Fuck. Take Cole to a hearing? We should want to extend him, not fight with him.

Maybe they think he's gone after 2019 anyway.

[JimR]

Maybe they think he's gone after 2019 anyway.

Doubt they would give up this soon.

[MusicMan]

Fuck. Take Cole to a hearing? We should want to extend him, not fight with him.

I do not care for this development.


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[Astros Fan in Big D]

Has Luhnow ever stated his preferred approach to arbitration?
(i.e. avoid at all costs,  or it's no big deal)

[Nate Colbert]

Astros' arb cases under Luhnow/Crane:

2012 (0)
2013 (0)
2014 (0)
2015 (0)
2016 (1)
  -Castro (5MM vs 5.25MM)  Astros Won
2017 (1)
  -McHugh (3.35MM vs 3.85MM)  Astros Lost
2018 (2)
  -McHugh (4.55MM vs 5MM) Astros Lost
  -Giles (4.2MM vs 4.6MM)  Astros Lost

Not a particularly winning strategy for the Astros thus far with net losses of $1.1MM (not taking into account all the man-hours put in prepping cases to present the arbitrator).

[WVastro]

Astros' arb cases under Luhnow/Crane:

2012 (0)
2013 (0)
2014 (0)
2015 (0)
2016 (1)
  -Castro (5MM vs 5.25MM)  Astros Won
2017 (1)
  -McHugh (3.35MM vs 3.85MM)  Astros Lost
2018 (2)
  -McHugh (4.55MM vs 5MM) Astros Lost
  -Giles (4.2MM vs 4.6MM)  Astros Lost

Not a particularly winning strategy for the Astros thus far with net losses of $1.1MM (not taking into account all the man-hours put in prepping cases to present the arbitrator).

I’m also not too wild about seeing McHugh on the list twice. He’s been a great citizen with the club. Role changes and not a peep of discontent.

[VirtualBob]

Fuck. Take Cole to a hearing? We should want to extend him, not fight with him.

Maybe they are talking about that in the meantime?

[JimR]

Maybe they are talking about that in the meantime?

Nice thought

[HudsonHawk]

Nice thought

The hearings aren't for a few more weeks.  They can still work a deal with Cole and Correa in the meantime.  Yesterday doesn't mean they *have* to go to a hearing.  Hopefully, it means they're working on longer term deals during that time.

[JimR]

The hearings aren't for a few more weeks.  They can still work a deal with Cole and Correa in the meantime.  Yesterday doesn't mean they *have* to go to a hearing.  Hopefully, it means they're working on longer term deals during that time.

Make it happen, Hawk.

[Waldo]

I’m also not too wild about seeing McHugh on the list twice. He’s been a great citizen with the club. Role changes and not a peep of discontent.

At least they settled with him this time around.

[MusicMan]

At least they settled with him this time around.

#NeverSettle


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[Nate Colbert]

Nightengale with Correa's exchanged figures, Devo's exchanged figures and salaries for McHugh and Osuna...

Gerrit Cole – $13.1MM   ($13.5MM vs $11.425MM)
Roberto Osuna – $6.5MM  Actual: $6.5MM 
Collin McHugh – $5.4MM  Actual: $5.8MM 
Carlos Correa – $5.1MM   ($5MM vs $4.25MM)
Lance McCullers – $4.6MM   Actual: $4.1MM
Will Harris – $3.6MM  Actual: $4.225MM
Ryan Pressly – $3.1MM   Actual: $2.9MM
Brad Peacock – $2.9MM   Actual: $3.11MM
Jake Marisnick – $2.4MM
Chris Devenski – $1.4MM   ($1.65MM vs $1.4MM)

MLBTR 2019 estimate vs 2019 agreed salary (or exchanged figures)

[Nate Colbert]

And Mark Feinsand had Jake's agreed salary...

Gerrit Cole – $13.1MM   ($13.5MM vs $11.425MM)
Roberto Osuna – $6.5MM  Actual: $6.5MM 
Collin McHugh – $5.4MM  Actual: $5.8MM 
Carlos Correa – $5.1MM   ($5MM vs $4.25MM)
Lance McCullers – $4.6MM   Actual: $4.1MM
Will Harris – $3.6MM  Actual: $4.2MM
Ryan Pressly – $3.1MM   Actual: $2.9MM
Brad Peacock – $2.9MM   Actual: $3.1MM
Jake Marisnick – $2.4MM   Actual: $2.2MM
Chris Devenski – $1.4MM   ($1.65MM vs $1.4MM)

MLBTR 2019 estimate vs 2019 agreed salary (or exchanged figures)

[Bench]

Maybe they are talking about that in the meantime?

Aren't all the clubs taking a "file and trial" approach?

[Nate Colbert]

Aren't all the clubs taking a "file and trial" approach?

Yes, but clubs generally still are willing to talk about multi-year extensions during the period up to the hearing date. 

[Nate Colbert]

Chandler Rome @Chandler_Rome 14m ago
Carlos Correa said his arbitration hearing is Jan. 31. Correa said he and the Astros are not engaged in any negotiations on a multi-year deal.


ETA:
Devenski's hearing is scheduled for Feb. 5.

[Nate Colbert]

Correa's hearing was yesterday and normally decisions are announced within 24 hours but then there's this...

Jon Heyman  @JonHeyman 1h ago
Carlos Correa arbitration hearing was yesterday but the result is being held until Tuesday, AP reports. Results are sometimes held so as not to affect other upcoming hearings. Could be Tommy Pham in this case.

[Reuben]

Correa's hearing was yesterday and normally decisions are announced within 24 hours but then there's this...

Jon Heyman  @JonHeyman 1h ago
Carlos Correa arbitration hearing was yesterday but the result is being held until Tuesday, AP reports. Results are sometimes held so as not to affect other upcoming hearings. Could be Tommy Pham in this case.

Other than their service time being similar, I fail to see how a 24-year-old SS's case would have much bearing on a 30-year-old OF.

Obviously, the optimist in me is hoping the delay is because they actually are hammering out a multi-year deal, but the realist knows that is highly unlikely.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

Devo agreement:

https://twitter.com/MarkBermanFox26/status/1092246014961037312?s=19

[Nate Colbert]

Further reporting says the club option for Devo for 2020 is for $2.625MM with escalator clauses that bumps up that 2020 salary depending on # of games pitched in 2019...

Gerrit Cole – $13.1MM   ($13.5MM vs $11.425MM)
Roberto Osuna – $6.5MM  Actual: $6.5MM 
Collin McHugh – $5.4MM  Actual: $5.8MM 
Carlos Correa – $5.1MM   ($5MM vs $4.25MM)
Lance McCullers – $4.6MM   Actual: $4.1MM
Will Harris – $3.6MM  Actual: $4.2MM
Ryan Pressly – $3.1MM   Actual: $2.9MM
Brad Peacock – $2.9MM   Actual: $3.1MM
Jake Marisnick – $2.4MM   Actual: $2.2MM
Chris Devenski – $1.4MM   Actual: $1.525MM

MLBTR 2019 estimate vs 2019 agreed salary (or exchanged figures)


[Settlement 1st noted by moriartp over in the payroll thread]

[Lefty]

 WTF does Tommy Pham have to do with anything?

[BizidyDizidy]

What happened to file and trial? Does club option count as multi-year?

[Nate Colbert]

What happened to file and trial? Does club option count as multi-year?

Apparently.

[moriartp]

Correa won his case.

[Nate Colbert]

(Updated)

Astros' arb cases under Luhnow/Crane:

2012 (0)
2013 (0)
2014 (0)
2015 (0)
2016 (1)
  -Castro (5MM vs 5.25MM)  Astros Won
2017 (1)
  -McHugh (3.35MM vs 3.85MM)  Astros Lost
2018 (2)
  -McHugh (4.55MM vs 5MM) Astros Lost
  -Giles (4.2MM vs 4.6MM)  Astros Lost
2019
  -Correa ($5MM vs $4.25MM) Astros Lost

Not a particularly winning strategy for the Astros thus far with net losses of $1.85MM (not taking into account any ancillary expenses).

[BudGirl]

(Updated)

Astros' arb cases under Luhnow/Crane:

2012 (0)
2013 (0)
2014 (0)
2015 (0)
2016 (1)
  -Castro (5MM vs 5.25MM)  Astros Won
2017 (1)
  -McHugh (3.35MM vs 3.85MM)  Astros Lost
2018 (2)
  -McHugh (4.55MM vs 5MM) Astros Lost
  -Giles (4.2MM vs 4.6MM)  Astros Lost
2019
  -Correa ($5MM vs $4.25MM) Astros Lost

Not a particularly winning strategy for the Astros thus far with net losses of $1.85MM (not taking into account any ancillary expenses).

I know it is not my money, but the differences in the cases is not a large difference.  So, it may be better to go through the process without being too adversarial and ruining future contract negotiations.

[Nate Colbert]

Just updating...

Gerrit Cole – $13.1MM   ($13.5MM vs $11.425MM)
Roberto Osuna – $6.5MM  Actual: $6.5MM 
Collin McHugh – $5.4MM  Actual: $5.8MM 
Carlos Correa – $5.1MM    Actual: $5MM
Lance McCullers – $4.6MM   Actual: $4.1MM
Will Harris – $3.6MM  Actual: $4.2MM
Ryan Pressly – $3.1MM   Actual: $2.9MM
Brad Peacock – $2.9MM   Actual: $3.1MM
Jake Marisnick – $2.4MM   Actual: $2.2MM
Chris Devenski – $1.4MM   Actual: $1.525MM

MLBTR 2019 estimate vs 2019 agreed salary (or exchanged figures)

[Nate Colbert]

Gerrit Cole's hearing is scheduled for next Monday.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

Gerrit Cole's hearing is scheduled for next Monday.

When is the announcement of Cole's win expected?

[moriartp]

When is the announcement of Cole's win expected?

Today, apparently. He gets his $13.5 million.

[Nate Colbert]

And then there were none...

Gerrit Cole – $13.1MM    Actual: $13.5MM
Roberto Osuna – $6.5MM  Actual: $6.5MM 
Collin McHugh – $5.4MM  Actual: $5.8MM 
Carlos Correa – $5.1MM    Actual: $5MM
Lance McCullers – $4.6MM   Actual: $4.1MM
Will Harris – $3.6MM  Actual: $4.2MM
Ryan Pressly – $3.1MM   Actual: $2.9MM
Brad Peacock – $2.9MM   Actual: $3.1MM
Jake Marisnick – $2.4MM   Actual: $2.2MM
Chris Devenski – $1.4MM   Actual: $1.525MM

Total of arb salaries: $48.8MM.

And props to the guy who does the MLBTR estimates--just $700K off with his total projection of $48.1MM.

[Nate Colbert]

(Updated/Final)

Astros' arb cases under Luhnow/Crane:

2012 (0)
2013 (0)
2014 (0)
2015 (0)
2016 (1)
  -Castro (5MM vs 5.25MM)  Astros Won
2017 (1)
  -McHugh (3.35MM vs 3.85MM)  Astros Lost
2018 (2)
  -McHugh (4.55MM vs 5MM) Astros Lost
  -Giles (4.2MM vs 4.6MM)  Astros Lost
2019 (2)
  -Correa ($5MM vs $4.25MM) Astros Lost
  -Cole ($13.5MM vs $11.425MM) Astros Lost

Not a particularly winning strategy for the Astros to date with net losses of $3.9MM (not taking into account any ancillary expenses).

[JimR]

(Updated/Final)

Astros' arb cases under Luhnow/Crane:

2012 (0)
2013 (0)
2014 (0)
2015 (0)
2016 (1)
  -Castro (5MM vs 5.25MM)  Astros Won
2017 (1)
  -McHugh (3.35MM vs 3.85MM)  Astros Lost
2018 (2)
  -McHugh (4.55MM vs 5MM) Astros Lost
  -Giles (4.2MM vs 4.6MM)  Astros Lost
2019 (2)
  -Correa ($5MM vs $4.25MM) Astros Lost
  -Cole ($13.5MM vs $11.425MM) Astros Lost

Not a particularly winning strategy for the Astros to date with net losses of $3.9MM (not taking into account any ancillary expenses).

I am staring to think winning these hearings is less important to Luhnow than following his plan. Part of the plan is determining what the players are worth budgetwise and offering only that amount. The club will consider a reasonable compromise to a number within the plan and go to a hearing if the player is not interested in the compromise number. The club puts on its best case in a businesslike professional manner without getting personal or denigrating the player’s efforts or contributions to the organization, and if the arbitrator rules for the player, so be it. Luhnow stuck to the plan without emotion or rancor, and the club did not piss off the player. Going to a hearing is merely a business decision based on an impersonal evaluation of monetary value, and win or lose, the decision is not a personal attack on the player or his accomplishments and contributions to the team and its season.

All of this stuff exists only in my head, of course, but I starting thinking this might be Luhnow’s approach when Correa complimented management on its professionalism after his hearing.

[Duman]

I am staring to think winning these hearings is less important to Luhnow than following his plan. Part of the plan is determining what the players are worth budgetwise and offering only that amount. The club will consider a reasonable compromise to a number within the plan and go to a hearing if the player is not interested in the compromise number. The club puts on its best case in a businesslike professional manner without getting personal or denigrating the player’s efforts or contributions to the organization, and if the arbitrator rules for the player, so be it. Luhnow stuck to the plan without emotion or rancor, and the club did not piss off the player. Going to a hearing is merely a business decision based on an impersonal evaluation of monetary value, and win or lose, the decision is not a personal attack on the player or his accomplishments and contributions to the team and its season.

All of this stuff exists only in my head, of course, but I starting thinking this might be Luhnow’s approach when Correa complimented management on its professionalism after his hearing.

As a fan, it is difficult, dare i say almost impossible, to separate emotion from decisions like this.  I am glad Front Office types can do it.  I get the feeling Luhnow is pretty good at balancing the relational and the business.  With the exception of Bud Norris, I haven't heard much bad talk about the Astros dealings with players.   

[Mr. Happy]

I am staring to think winning these hearings is less important to Luhnow than following his plan. Part of the plan is determining what the players are worth budgetwise and offering only that amount. The club will consider a reasonable compromise to a number within the plan and go to a hearing if the player is not interested in the compromise number. The club puts on its best case in a businesslike professional manner without getting personal or denigrating the player’s efforts or contributions to the organization, and if the arbitrator rules for the player, so be it. Luhnow stuck to the plan without emotion or rancor, and the club did not piss off the player. Going to a hearing is merely a business decision based on an impersonal evaluation of monetary value, and win or lose, the decision is not a personal attack on the player or his accomplishments and contributions to the team and its season.

All of this stuff exists only in my head, of course, but I starting thinking this might be Luhnow’s approach when Correa complimented management on its professionalism after his hearing.

I couldn't agree more. With Luhnow, it's about process.

[BudGirl]

I am staring to think winning these hearings is less important to Luhnow than following his plan. Part of the plan is determining what the players are worth budgetwise and offering only that amount. The club will consider a reasonable compromise to a number within the plan and go to a hearing if the player is not interested in the compromise number. The club puts on its best case in a businesslike professional manner without getting personal or denigrating the player’s efforts or contributions to the organization, and if the arbitrator rules for the player, so be it. Luhnow stuck to the plan without emotion or rancor, and the club did not piss off the player. Going to a hearing is merely a business decision based on an impersonal evaluation of monetary value, and win or lose, the decision is not a personal attack on the player or his accomplishments and contributions to the team and its season.

All of this stuff exists only in my head, of course, but I starting thinking this might be Luhnow’s approach when Correa complimented management on its professionalism after his hearing.

Rather my thoughts as well.

I know it is not my money, but the differences in the cases is not a large difference.  So, it may be better to go through the process without being too adversarial and ruining future contract negotiations.

[TerryPuhl21]

I am staring to think winning these hearings is less important to Luhnow than following his plan. Part of the plan is determining what the players are worth budgetwise and offering only that amount. The club will consider a reasonable compromise to a number within the plan and go to a hearing if the player is not interested in the compromise number. The club puts on its best case in a businesslike professional manner without getting personal or denigrating the player’s efforts or contributions to the organization, and if the arbitrator rules for the player, so be it. Luhnow stuck to the plan without emotion or rancor, and the club did not piss off the player. Going to a hearing is merely a business decision based on an impersonal evaluation of monetary value, and win or lose, the decision is not a personal attack on the player or his accomplishments and contributions to the team and its season.

All of this stuff exists only in my head, of course, but I starting thinking this might be Luhnow’s approach when Correa complimented management on its professionalism after his hearing.

I think you are right Jim, but I also get the feeling that the way Luhnow and Astros appear to handle this process, may be the exception. If that is true, hats off to them (if it benefits in the long run), even though it may cost the team a few more dollars due to losses for being less aggressive in the hearings. The ex GM’s and players I hear talk about this process, all say it is VERY unpleasant and should be avoided. Correa may be the first player I’ve ever heard make those kinds of comments about an arb hearing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Astros Fan in Big D]

Well put,  Jim.

They're sticking to their plan,  and to their credit animosity has been negligible.

[Bench]

To the contrary, Bauer said that the arbitration hearing was fine until the last ten minutes which he described as “character assassination.”  He’s a fairly precious guy but if I were an employer I would work hard to avoid instilling such feelings. Credit to the Astros for being professional.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

To the contrary, Bauer said that the arbitration hearing was fine until the last ten minutes which he described as “character assassination.”  He’s a fairly precious guy but if I were an employer I would work hard to avoid instilling such feelings. Credit to the Astros for being professional.

That implies that he has character to assassinate.  Lighten up, Tyler.

[Mr. Happy]

That implies that he has character to assassinate.  Lighten up, Tyler.

Don't you mean Trevor?

[JimR]

Don't you mean Trevor?

Don’t you remember Bregman’s tweet?

[TeeJoe]

To the contrary, Bauer said that the arbitration hearing was fine until the last ten minutes which he described as “character assassination.”  He’s a fairly precious guy but if I were an employer I would work hard to avoid instilling such feelings. Credit to the Astros for being professional.

The article I read about it went to describe Bauer sending a personal formal invite to the team President and GM.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/trevor-bauer-accuses-indians-of-character-assassination-in-arbitration-hearing/ar-BBTAAsh?li=BBnb7Kz
“I sent them a nice 'Plus One' invite, a postcard, designed it all myself," Bauer said. “It said, “You are formally invited to the attend the arbitration hearing between Trevor Bauer and the Cleveland Indians. The date, the location, you and plus-one, the whole deal. And they decided not to come."

I guess he wanted the whole process to stay professional and such. Very professional of Tyler to add the plus one!

[Astros Fan in Big D]

What a fucking nut.

[moriartp]

I am legitimately interested to see how his “I’ll never sign a multi-year deal” plan works out. He could do pretty well for himself if his arm doesn’t fall off.

[TeeJoe]

Here's an article that clears up the reference to giving to charity and being a terrible human being...Originally I had no idea what that was about.
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/trevor-bauer-accuses-indians-character-assassination-salary-arbitration-hearing-183648896.html

The guy is wackadoodle...

[BudGirl]

The guy is wackadoodle...

+1

[moriartp]

Bauer has apparently clarified that the "character assassination" was done by the MLB Labor Relations Department representatives, not Cleveland's people. "Labor relations" indeed.