Offensive Futility

[HudsonHawk]

That’s now six starts by Verlander, where he’s gone into at least the 7th inning, given up 1run or less, yet the Astros lost.

[austro]

I really think that they get complacent because Verlander is pitching, and then as the game goes on they can't flip the switch. Of course, last night Snell was working the bottom and the outside edge of the zone really well, and that had more than a little to do with it.

[Navin R Johnson]

A lineup that included Marisnick, Tyler White and no Altuve didn’t seem like a great idea.

[Knoxbanedoodle]

I feel like the bigger problem is the inability to hit at home. There’s always one pitcher who doesn’t get any run support, and Verlander is most frequently tasked with the other guys’ ace, but it’s worrisome to think that they’re getting it into their heads that home is where the hits aren’t.

[Waldo]

I really think that they get complacent because Verlander is pitching

A lineup that included Marisnick, Tyler White and no Altuve didn’t seem like a great idea.

I had the same thoughts when I saw the starting lineups.

[Duman]

I'll take the blame.  Last week I was on vacation.  We left the house on 6/9 and didn't return until 6/17.  The Astros won every game during that span.  Sorry I came back from the cruise. 

You can take up a collection to exile me back on another vacation and I will accept my punishment. 

[JimR]

That was a pretty good pitcher on the other side, and resting Altuve did not help. Neither did Marwin’s ejection. We had a loss coming. Start a new streak tonight.

I thought we would do it in the 8th with Yuli up.

[toddthebod]

Small sample size and all, but Altuve has hit Snell really hard.  So I was quite surprised that Altuve wasn't starting.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/33748/teamId/18

What also made little sense to me was the defensive alignment.  Why move Bregman to SS and Guriel to third?  Now you have two players who are out of position.  Bregman should have stayed at third, Guriel should have stayed at first, and you could have put either White or Kemp at second.  I actually thought that it showed last night.  There were a couple of plays that I believe Bregman would have made a third that Guriel did not make.   

[Lefty]

I had the same thoughts when I saw the starting lineups.

What do you think Verlander said, internally?

This rest is going to pay off in August.

[MusicMan]

Verlander has three starts with at least ten strikeouts, and has given up a total of 2 ER in those 3 starts.

The Astros lost all three games.

[juliogotay]

I just don't understand this lackluster play at home. Always done well defending the home turf previously.

[JimR]

Small sample size and all, but Altuve has hit Snell really hard.  So I was quite surprised that Altuve wasn't starting.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/33748/teamId/18

What also made little sense to me was the defensive alignment.  Why move Bregman to SS and Guriel to third?  Now you have two players who are out of position.  Bregman should have stayed at third, Guriel should have stayed at first, and you could have put either White or Kemp at second.  I actually thought that it showed last night.  There were a couple of plays that I believe Bregman would have made a third that Guriel did not make.   

Maybe the backhand play but not the high chopper by Ramos. Bregman would not have touched it.

[DVauthrin]

That was a pretty good pitcher on the other side, and resting Altuve did not help. Neither did Marwin’s ejection. We had a loss coming. Start a new streak tonight.

I thought we would do it in the 8th with Yuli up.

Agreed.  Blake Snell is going to be the Rays all star representative this year.  He’s really good.

[Lefty]

Maybe the backhand play but not the high chopper by Ramos. Bregman would not have touched it.

Bregman's way shorter than I am with cleats on concrete, and I'm not a tall man.  No way he catches that chopper unless he was positioned differently.

[toddthebod]

Maybe the backhand play but not the high chopper by Ramos. Bregman would not have touched it.

Yes, I was thinking about the backhand play.

[juliogotay]

Verlander has three starts with at least ten strikeouts, and has given up a total of 2 ER in those 3 starts.

The Astros lost all three games.

The Astros are 10-6 in Verlander's starts. In those six losses Houston has scored a total of seven runs.

Run Support, Astros' rotation, 2018:
 Cole: 6.22 runs/game
 McCullers: 5.70
 Morton: 5.34
 Keuchel: 5.14
 Verlander: 3.99

[JimR]

I just don't understand this lackluster play at home. Always done well defending the home turf previously.

Last night was lackluster? You realize the other guys are major leaguers too? Do you think winning is easy?

[juliogotay]

Last night was lackluster? You realize the other guys are major leaguers too? Do you think winning is easy?

Yea, bad choice of words. Good point.

[HudsonHawk]

Small sample size and all, but Altuve has hit Snell really hard.  So I was quite surprised that Altuve wasn't starting.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/33748/teamId/18

What also made little sense to me was the defensive alignment.  Why move Bregman to SS and Guriel to third?  Now you have two players who are out of position.  Bregman should have stayed at third, Guriel should have stayed at first, and you could have put either White or Kemp at second.  I actually thought that it showed last night.  There were a couple of plays that I believe Bregman would have made a third that Guriel did not make.   

Bregman was at 2B. And the idea was to start White, not Kemp, agains the lefty.  Gurriel is fine at 3B. Defense was not the problem.  The problem was offense...not taking advantage of walks and opportunities and the continued struggles of Springer and Correa in clutch situations.

[Jacksonian]

Last night was lackluster? You realize the other guys are major leaguers too? Do you think winning is easy?

For the season their home offense has been significantly worse than the road offense.  Personally I think they’re just trying way too hard to vaunt for the home crowd.

[Lefty]

For the season their home offense has been significantly worse than the road offense.  Personally I think they’re just trying way too hard to vaunt for the home crowd.

I believe it's about 2 runs/game worse at home.  Springer and Bregman were trying to blame it on OF positioning and the gaps and the Crawfords recently, Hinch said "nope".

[HudsonHawk]

I believe it's about 2 runs/game worse at home.  Springer and Bregman were trying to blame it on OF positioning and the gaps and the Crawfords recently, Hinch said "nope".

Outfield positioning is why they’ve been a strikeout factory at home?

[toddthebod]

Bregman was at 2B. And the idea was to start White, not Kemp, agains the lefty.  Gurriel is fine at 3B. Defense was not the problem.  The problem was offense...not taking advantage of walks and opportunities and the continued struggles of Springer and Correa in clutch situations.

Yeah, I meant 2B not SS.  I have no problem starting White.  Just put him at second.  White has much more experience at second than Bregman.  That way you don't have to mess with the rest of the infield. 

[das]

Yeah, I meant 2B not SS.  I have no problem starting White.  Just put him at second.  White has much more experience at second than Bregman.  That way you don't have to mess with the rest of the infield.

Does anyone have eyes on White at 2B in Fresno?  Is he any good?  Bregman is a natural SS and White is a “natural” 1B that did not look particularly good at 3B and is playing some 2B at Fresno to increase his versatility. Having seen Bregman at short and White at 3B, Bregman appears to be the better fit if defensive run prevention is as important as it was in yesterday’s game. But, again, I have not seen White at 2B in Fresno, hence my initial question...

[JimR]

Does anyone have eyes on White at 2B in Fresno?  Is he any good?  Bregman is a natural SS and White is a “natural” 1B that did not look particularly good at 3B and is playing some 2B at Fresno to increase his versatility. Having seen Bregman at short and White at 3B, Bregman appears to be the better fit if defensive run prevention is as important as it was in yesterday’s game. But, again, I have not seen White at 2B in Fresno, hence my initial question...

This is all smoke and mirrors. We did not get the key hit with men on base. End of story.

[astrojo]

This is all some and mirrors. We did not get the key hit with men on base. End of story.

My biggest problem with last night was resting your best hitter against the best pitcher on their roster knowing  Altuve has had success against Snell.  Hinch could have easily rested Altuve tonight or Friday around the off day.  I know it’s his decision, I just didn’t agree with him.

[doyce7]

Yeah, I meant 2B not SS.  I have no problem starting White.  Just put him at second.  White has much more experience at second than Bregman.  That way you don't have to mess with the rest of the infield.

Bregman played alot of second in college if I remember correctly

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[HudsonHawk]

My biggest problem with last night was resting your best hitter against the best pitcher on their roster knowing  Altuve has had success against Snell.  Hinch could have easily rested Altuve tonight or Friday around the off day.  I know it’s his decision, I just didn’t agree with him.

This was my only questionable move of last night as well. Just seemed like an odd time to rest Altuve given the matchup and the upcoming off day.

[Lefty]

Outfield positioning is why they’ve been a strikeout factory at home?

"nope"

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/texas-sports-nation/astros/article/If-only-Astros-could-hit-at-home-like-they-do-on-13002361.php

[juliogotay]

The Astros formerly hit better, scored more and won more in MMP than on the road. That has changed but the ballpark hasn't.

[Knoxbanedoodle]

"nope"

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/texas-sports-nation/astros/article/If-only-Astros-could-hit-at-home-like-they-do-on-13002361.php

Well there you have it. Home is where the hits aren't.

That fucking sucks. Somebody creative needs to knock them out of it. They need a ceremony. They need to bury the shitty bat.

[Waldo]

For the season their home offense has been significantly worse than the road offense.  Personally I think they’re just trying way too hard to vaunt for the home crowd.

The Astros formerly hit better, scored more and won more in MMP than on the road. That has changed but the ballpark hasn't.

Well, the stadium has changed at different times throughout the years.  It's interesting to go back through past seasons and look for some correlation.

2018
Home: .244/.317/.395, 148 runs (on pace for 333 runs)
Away: .286/.353/.477, 246 runs (on pace for 498 runs)

2017 (CF brought in, new batter's eye)
Home: .279/.340/.472, 395 runs
Away: .284/.351/.483, 501 runs

2016 (LED lighting installed)
Home: .238/.311/.407, 334 runs
Away: .255/.326/.426, 390 runs

2015
Home: .253/.321/.462, 367 runs
Away: .247/.310/.413, 362 runs

2014
Home: .245/.315/.398, 318 runs
Away: .239/.304/.368, 311 runs

2008
Home: .272/.334/.443, 367 runs
Away: .254/.312/.389, 345 runs

2005
Home: .271/.340/.436, 360 runs
Away: .242/.306/.381, 333 runs

2004
Home: .277/.354/.453, 405 runs
Away: .257/.330/.420, 398 runs

2003
Home: .269/.346/.448, 425 runs
Away: .257/.327/.415, 380 runs

2001 (visitor's bullpen enclosed, HR line raised in LCF)
Home: .278/.353/.471, 440 runs
Away: .265/.341/.432, 407 runs

2000
Home: .280/.366/.506, 505 runs
Away: .275/.355/.449, 433 runs

Generally speaking, any team from the 2000s that was at least halfway decent offensively usually managed around .270 or better at home and was usually at least a little worse on the road.  Also, since MMP opened only four Astros teams have hit worse at home than on the road: 2018, 2017, 2016, and 2006 (.254 vs. .256, and they still had higher OBP and SLG at home and scored more runs at home).

I've seen some speculation online that the hitters may not be able to see the ball as well at MMP for some reason.  I think this is extrapolating from quotes from a couple of players over the last road trip who said they liked playing in Oakland because they could see the ball well.  It does sound at least a little plausible.  In 2016 the stadium lighting was replaced with LED, and I think I remember Springer saying early in that season that he had to adjust to the glare from the new lights while playing the outfield.  In 2017 they got the new batter's eye which is a brighter green color than what used to be behind Tal's Hill.

Now, that wouldn't explain how last year's team had offensive success at MMP not seen since the powerhouse 2000 offense, nor would it completely explain the huge dropoff this year.  But it's interesting to consider.

[austro]

It's the damn Torchy's Tacos sign out there. If that were a Tacodeli sign, the team slugging percentage would be over 1.000.

[Knoxbanedoodle]

That was awesome, Waldo, thanks very much. I wonder if a breakdown of left- and right-handed hitters at home the past couple years would confirm Bregman’s hypothesis.

[chuck]

It's the damn Torchy's Tacos sign out there. If that were a Tacodeli sign, the team slugging percentage would be over 1.000.

They might try changing it to Estrella Jalisco.

[BUWebguy]

FWIW, the national FOX crew on Saturday was also talking about the new batter's eye -- saying that the color (a brighter green) and the texture/shadows caused by the 3-D logo could be causing some of the problems.

[das]

Interesting home/road data, Dave. I wonder what the splits for the visiting teams at MMPUS look like. The home “problem” is only a problem if it impacts the Astros more than the visiting team(s).  Which would be odd.

[JimR]

Facing another hot pitcher tonight. Prepare to be frustrated.

[Tom Servo]

Facing another hot pitcher tonight. Prepare to be frustrated.

As long as Verlander frustrates more, I’m ok.


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[Fredia]

or as so many times before it will fall to the bull pen

[TerryPuhl21]

Interesting home/road data, Dave. I wonder what the splits for the visiting teams at MMPUS look like. The home “problem” is only a problem if it impacts the Astros more than the visiting team(s).  Which would be odd.

I could be wrong [emoji12], and I have no data to back up what I’m about to say. To me, it seems like at home we are not near as aggressive at the plate as we are on the road. Again, I could be imagining that. It seems like we watch a lot more fastballs at home versus on the road. To me, if we would be more aggressive early in the count at home, we wouldn’t be talking about this near as much.


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[HudsonHawk]

I could be wrong [emoji12], and I have no data to back up what I’m about to say. To me, it seems like at home we are not near as aggressive at the plate as we are on the road. Again, I could be imagining that. It seems like we watch a lot more fastballs at home versus on the road. To me, if we would be more aggressive early in the count at home, we wouldn’t be talking about this near as much.


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I agree that they take too many good pitches. I haven’t noticed a home/road trend, but there could be.

[Lefty]

Interesting home/road data, Dave. I wonder what the splits for the visiting teams at MMPUS look like. The home “problem” is only a problem if it impacts the Astros more than the visiting team(s).  Which would be odd.

I though this was a good read, didn't see it posted.  The Astros hit better on the road, and pitch better at home.  They do not hit the ball as hard at home (largest differential in baseball) and they hit the ball on the ground more at home (also largest).

https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/minute-maid-park-plays-like-a-pitchers-park/c-281955408

Also, going back to Bregman and Springer talking about the defense playing the gaps and the Crawfords acting as a quasi extra fielder, they've hit twice as many doubles on the road as at home.  And yeah, the batting eye and the busyness in CF has been mentioned as a possible factor.  And according to B-R, they don't walk or strikeout at an appreciably different rate at home vs road.

[Waldo]

I could be wrong [emoji12], and I have no data to back up what I’m about to say. To me, it seems like at home we are not near as aggressive at the plate as we are on the road. Again, I could be imagining that. It seems like we watch a lot more fastballs at home versus on the road. To me, if we would be more aggressive early in the count at home, we wouldn’t be talking about this near as much.


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Hypothetically speaking, that could be a symptom of not seeing the ball very well, could it not?  Just trying to connect dots.

[Waldo]

Interesting home/road data, Dave. I wonder what the splits for the visiting teams at MMPUS look like. The home “problem” is only a problem if it impacts the Astros more than the visiting team(s).  Which would be odd.

Interesting question.  There's a couple of obvious caveats to that, one being the inherent small sample size and the other being that any team visiting MMP in 2018 has to face MLB's best pitching staff.  So instead of just looking at the home/MMP splits for Astros opponents, I'm also going to show (where possible) how those opponents fared against Astros pitching in their own home stadiums.  That's still an imperfect analysis for a number of reasons (about half of these teams either haven't hosted the Astros yet or won't host them at all this year), but it's a little better.

     |        @ Home         |        @ MMP          |    @ Home vs. HOU
Team |  AVG   OBP   SLG  R/G |  AVG   OBP   SLG  R/G |  AVG   OBP   SLG  R/G
BAL  | .231  .303  .401  3.8 | .245  .302  .387  3.0 |       No games
BOS  | .284  .346  .492  5.8 | .239  .300  .435  4.8 |       No games
CLE  | .283  .356  .486  6.0 | .188  .250  .323  2.3 | .255  .313  .444  5.5
KC   | .239  .307  .361  3.4 | .176  .250  .296  2.3 | .177  .248  .260  3.0
LAA  | .232  .308  .400  4.0 | .170  .243  .319  4.0 | .188  .232  .278  1.7
NYY  | .260  .346  .464  5.5 | .205  .259  .326  3.8 | .273  .319  .443  4.0
OAK  | .223  .294  .365  3.6 | .222  .238  .414  4.0 | .191  .255  .342  2.7
SD   | .236  .311  .378  4.1 | .221  .289  .298  1.7 |       No games
SEA  | .257  .312  .415  3.9 | .264  .303  .528  6.0 | .171  .203  .260  1.5
SF   | .270  .331  .438  4.9 | .206  .261  .317  1.5 |       No games
TB   | .259  .337  .400  4.3 | .168  .269  .284  2.3 |       No games
TEX  | .240  .333  .413  4.8 | .183  .224  .361  2.3 | .226  .314  .337  3.3
TOR  | .244  .314  .446  4.7 | .250  .308  .556  6.0 |       No games

Overall at MMP:
- 10 out of 13 teams hit for lower average than at home
- All 13 teams had a lower OBP than at home
- 10 out of 13 teams hit for lower SLG than at home
- 9 out of 13 teams scored fewer runs per game than at home

Overall at home vs. the Astros:
- 5 out of 7 teams hit for higher average than at MMP
- 4 out of 7 teams had a higher OBP than at MMP
- 2 out of 7 teams hit for higher SLG than at MMP
- 4 out of 7 teams scored more runs than at MMP

It's hardly conclusive.

[das]

Interesting question.  There's a couple of obvious caveats to that, one being the inherent small sample size and the other being that any team visiting MMP in 2018 has to face MLB's best pitching staff.  So instead of just looking at the home/MMP splits for Astros opponents, I'm also going to show (where possible) how those opponents fared against Astros pitching in their own home stadiums.  That's still an imperfect analysis for a number of reasons (about half of these teams either haven't hosted the Astros yet or won't host them at all this year), but it's a little better.

     |        @ Home         |        @ MMP          |    @ Home vs. HOU
Team |  AVG   OBP   SLG  R/G |  AVG   OBP   SLG  R/G |  AVG   OBP   SLG  R/G
BAL  | .231  .303  .401  3.8 | .245  .302  .387  3.0 |       No games
BOS  | .284  .346  .492  5.8 | .239  .300  .435  4.8 |       No games
CLE  | .283  .356  .486  6.0 | .188  .250  .323  2.3 | .255  .313  .444  5.5
KC   | .239  .307  .361  3.4 | .176  .250  .296  2.3 | .177  .248  .260  3.0
LAA  | .232  .308  .400  4.0 | .170  .243  .319  4.0 | .188  .232  .278  1.7
NYY  | .260  .346  .464  5.5 | .205  .259  .326  3.8 | .273  .319  .443  4.0
OAK  | .223  .294  .365  3.6 | .222  .238  .414  4.0 | .191  .255  .342  2.7
SD   | .236  .311  .378  4.1 | .221  .289  .298  1.7 |       No games
SEA  | .257  .312  .415  3.9 | .264  .303  .528  6.0 | .171  .203  .260  1.5
SF   | .270  .331  .438  4.9 | .206  .261  .317  1.5 |       No games
TB   | .259  .337  .400  4.3 | .168  .269  .284  2.3 |       No games
TEX  | .240  .333  .413  4.8 | .183  .224  .361  2.3 | .226  .314  .337  3.3
TOR  | .244  .314  .446  4.7 | .250  .308  .556  6.0 |       No games

Overall at MMP:
- 10 out of 13 teams hit for lower average than at home
- All 13 teams had a lower OBP than at home
- 10 out of 13 teams hit for lower SLG than at home
- 9 out of 13 teams scored fewer runs per game than at home

Overall at home vs. the Astros:
- 5 out of 7 teams hit for higher average than at MMP
- 4 out of 7 teams had a higher OBP than at MMP
- 2 out of 7 teams hit for higher SLG than at MMP
- 4 out of 7 teams scored more runs than at MMP

It's hardly conclusive.

Something that may make it more conclusive is expanding the visiting teams' data to include all stadiums outside of MMPUS instead of just their home stadium.  That would then mirror the Astros "away" stats and greatly increase the sample size.  Another would be to aggregate all the teams data into one "opponent" to get an us vs. all-of-them view.  A third would be to include 2016 and 2017 since 2016 was the start of the noteworthy drop in MMPUS offensive production.

All of this is easy for me to suggest since I am not the one crunching the numbers!  If I may ask, what's your tool/methodology?  It's interesting to me but I find dumping raw data into Excel and building the calculations tedious instead of enjoyable.

[Waldo]

If I may ask, what's your tool/methodology?  It's interesting to me but I find dumping raw data into Excel and building the calculations tedious instead of enjoyable.

For lack of a better method that I know of, I just used Baseball Reference to look up each teams’ stadium splits for the second column. But for the third column I had to go through box scores and total everything up in Excel, which was indeed tedious.

Stuff like this wouldn’t be too complicated to do programmatically by running queries against the MLB API. I played with it for a little bit a couple years ago, so I may dust off my code and try it again. I’ve been meaning to do it anyway in order to more quickly aggregate data preparing for previews.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

For lack of a better method that I know of, I just used Baseball Reference to look up each teams’ stadium splits for the second column. But for the third column I had to go through box scores and total everything up in Excel, which was indeed tedious.

Stuff like this wouldn’t be too complicated to do programmatically by running queries against the MLB API. I played with it for a little bit a couple years ago, so I may dust off my code and try it again. I’ve been meaning to do it anyway in order to more quickly aggregate data preparing for previews.

Thanks for doing that.

[Reuben]

Thanks for doing that.

+1

[Jacksonian]

If it were the ballpark you would expect the Astros pitching to be better at home, but it's not.  Home and Away splits are very even.

[jbm]

So, are there any particular players this year who are much better at MM than on the road?

[Lefty]

So, are there any particular players this year who are much better at MM than on the road?

Reddick definitely.  He went through a stretch earlier this year where he was 1-20something on the road.

[Fredia]

his spidy sense tingles there

[SoonerJim]

I could be wrong [emoji12], and I have no data to back up what I’m about to say. To me, it seems like at home we are not near as aggressive at the plate as we are on the road. Again, I could be imagining that. It seems like we watch a lot more fastballs at home versus on the road. To me, if we would be more aggressive early in the count at home, we wouldn’t be talking about this near as much.


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Today's NYT Noticed what we've seen much of the season.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/21/sports/baseball/houston-astros-playoff-races.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fsports&action=click&contentCollection=sports&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=8&pgtype=sectionfront