Author Topic: What if? (Read 3655 times)

MusicMan · « **on:** January 31, 2018, 08:53:13 am »

Given the slow Void, I thought this might generate some discussion:

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

GreatBagwellsBeard · « **Reply #1 on:** January 31, 2018, 09:48:25 am »

Fascinating to pull on those threads and see where they go. I'd also throw in "what if Bagwell started wearing the protective glove after the first time he broke his hand?" on there.

If that Nomar/Bagwell trade happens, Bags gets to be a DH for the back half of his career and play in Boston. He makes the HoF on the first ballot.

MusicMan · « **Reply #2 on:** January 31, 2018, 10:02:52 am »

Quote from: GreatBagwellsBeard on January 31, 2018, 09:48:25 am

Fascinating to pull on those threads and see where they go. I'd also throw in "what if Bagwell started wearing the protective glove after the first time he broke his hand?" on there.

Hadn't thought of that one - I'd throw it in the honorable mention category.

Quote

If that Nomar/Bagwell trade happens, Bags gets to be a DH for the back half of his career and play in Boston. He makes the HoF on the first ballot.

Great point on the DH. Wonder if it would have spared his shoulder enough to hit more.

GreatBagwellsBeard · « **Reply #3 on:** January 31, 2018, 10:29:34 am »

This likely isn't true, but it's fun to think about:

1989, Nolan re-signs in Houston for a couple more years. Rangers don't sign him, and don't have the 16 wins he gave them, finishing sixth in the AL West instead of fourth. George W. Bush & co. don't buy the team, instead opting to buy the Astros several years later. WIthout Dubya's group, the Rangers fail to secure a new stadium contract from Arlington and move to Tampa in 1992. Bush never fires Gerry, but also never runs for governor, becoming commissioner of baseball in 2001 after Bud Selig is mysteriously fucked to death by rabid hyenas.

NeilT · « **Reply #4 on:** January 31, 2018, 11:02:58 am »

Quote from: GreatBagwellsBeard on January 31, 2018, 10:29:34 am

This likely isn't true, but it's fun to think about:

1989, Nolan re-signs in Houston for a couple more years. Rangers don't sign him, and don't have the 16 wins he gave them, finishing sixth in the AL West instead of fourth. George W. Bush & co. don't buy the team, instead opting to buy the Astros several years later. WIthout Dubya's group, the Rangers fail to secure a new stadium contract from Arlington and move to Tampa in 1992. Bush never fires Gerry, but also never runs for governor, becoming commissioner of baseball in 2001 after Bud Selig is mysteriously fucked to death by rabid hyenas.

It's hard not to like everything about that scenario. And what would be mysterious about it?

Jacksonian · « **Reply #5 on:** January 31, 2018, 11:15:30 am »

With regard to #10, you are right.

As for #9 I think there's too much variability in human behavior to say they'd make up the 6 game difference. It's entirely possible that he'd have had another low ERA - high loss season. That outcome would have left Houston in the same spot.

#8 is huge. The NLDS probably only goes 4 games. Game 1 of the NLCS is started by Clemens not Backe. They likely win that game, and considering the subsequent offensive outcome and that the rotation (on full rest) is Clemens, Oswalt, Pettitte, Backe there is a clear path to a NLCS sweep.

#7 but Nolan didn't. I think we say this kind of thing about a number of player throughout Astros history. The bigger what if is then is #6.

I agree with your assertions regarding Richard. A massive blow to the club.

As for #5 I'd prefer to wonder what if Springer makes the out at first. Cox probably still brings in Rocker to turn Everett around. But with first base open the entire pitching sequence changes. Maybe he walks him; maybe gives him a different hittable pitch. But certainly the possibility of the Weiss play changes.

#4. Certainly having Clemens in Houston during that time many things about the time would have been different.

#3 impacts that ERA as much as Clemens being there would. I agree on the glad that didn't happen.

#2. I believe that if the Astros had Bryant, the 2015 draft is different and does not include Bregman. I think they go with Benintendi. At the end of the day the sequence of events including drafting Appel led to the World Series title. So I agree, fuck it.

The consequences of #1 are beyond the ability to figure. Suffice it to say the 90's Astros would be very different.

Duke · « **Reply #6 on:** January 31, 2018, 01:07:37 pm »

Quote from: GreatBagwellsBeard on January 31, 2018, 10:29:34 am

after Bud Selig is mysteriously fucked to death by rabid hyenas.

A beautiful sentiment.

JimR · « **Reply #7 on:** January 31, 2018, 01:30:03 pm »

What if Nolan had not deflected a certain DP ball hit right at Reynolds with one on and no out in the 8th up 5-2?

BizidyDizidy · « **Reply #8 on:** January 31, 2018, 02:46:54 pm »

What if Drayton hadn't balked at giving the Unit a 4th year?

juliogotay · « **Reply #9 on:** January 31, 2018, 02:55:32 pm »

Quote from: BizidyDizidy on January 31, 2018, 02:46:54 pm

What if Drayton hadn't balked at giving the Unit a 4th year?

What if Drayton hadn't gotten the ballpark deal worked out?

JimR · « **Reply #10 on:** January 31, 2018, 03:52:13 pm »

Quote from: BizidyDizidy on January 31, 2018, 02:46:54 pm

What if Drayton hadn't balked at giving the Unit a 4th year?

What I heard at the time was wifey wanted to live in Arizona. Would a longer contract have mattered?

subnuclear · « **Reply #11 on:** January 31, 2018, 03:54:36 pm »

All of Joe Morgan's stats immediately jump up when he gets to Cincinnati and stay at MVP levels for like 6 years. I'm sure the Dome really hurt him, but I imagine hitting in between Pete Rose and Ken Griffey Sr. and Tony Perez and Johnny Bench probably helped a bit.

BizidyDizidy · « **Reply #12 on:** January 31, 2018, 03:57:08 pm »

Quote from: JimR on January 31, 2018, 03:52:13 pm

What I heard at the time was wifey wanted to live in Arizona. Would a longer contract have mattered?

I had heard the stumbling block was the 4th year after the bad experience with the Drabek and Swindell contracts, but who knows. It makes a good story anyways, since he won the next 4 Cy Youngs.

JimR · « **Reply #13 on:** January 31, 2018, 03:59:32 pm »

Quote from: subnuclear on January 31, 2018, 03:54:36 pm

All of Joe Morgan's stats immediately jump up when he gets to Cincinnati and stay at MVP levels for like 6 years. I'm sure the Dome really hurt him, but I imagine hitting in between Pete Rose and Ken Griffey Sr. and Tony Perez and Johnny Bench probably helped a bit.

What I heard from an insider at the time was Wynn and Morgan were getting in trouble together, and management thought they should be separated. I have no idea if this is true, but my source was in a position to know. What if Wynn had been the one to go?

jbm · « **Reply #14 on:** January 31, 2018, 04:09:37 pm »

What if Dickie Thon had never been hit by that pitch?

GreatBagwellsBeard · « **Reply #15 on:** January 31, 2018, 04:15:18 pm »

Quote from: jbm on January 31, 2018, 04:09:37 pm

What if Dickie Thon had never been hit by that pitch?

Oooh, this one is good. Then we talk about an unbroken chain of SS greatness from Thon to Jeter to Correa.

ValpoCory · « **Reply #16 on:** January 31, 2018, 04:25:17 pm »

What if Jim Edmonds hadn't robbed Brad Ausmus in Game 7 of the 2004 NLCS?

"What if" games are sure as hell a lot more fun after winning a World Series.

juliogotay · « **Reply #17 on:** January 31, 2018, 04:28:40 pm »

Quote from: GreatBagwellsBeard on January 31, 2018, 04:15:18 pm

Oooh, this one is good. Then we talk about an unbroken chain of SS greatness from Thon to Jeter to Correa.

You are assuming Jeter would have been here for the long haul.

Bench · « **Reply #18 on:** January 31, 2018, 04:31:54 pm »

Quote from: ValpoCory on January 31, 2018, 04:25:17 pm

What if games are sure as hell a lot more fun after winning a World Series.

I think this is the most important lesson from the exercise.

NeilT · « **Reply #19 on:** January 31, 2018, 05:16:06 pm »

What if Walt Weiss had Walt Weissed?

austro · « **Reply #20 on:** January 31, 2018, 07:28:09 pm »

Quote from: GreatBagwellsBeard on January 31, 2018, 10:29:34 am

This likely isn't true, but it's fun to think about:

1989, Nolan re-signs in Houston for a couple more years. Rangers don't sign him, and don't have the 16 wins he gave them, finishing sixth in the AL West instead of fourth. George W. Bush & co. don't buy the team, instead opting to buy the Astros several years later. WIthout Dubya's group, the Rangers fail to secure a new stadium contract from Arlington and move to Tampa in 1992. Bush never fires Gerry, but also never runs for governor, becoming commissioner of baseball in 2001 after Bud Selig is mysteriously fucked to death by rabid hyenas.

Come on, don't be preposterous: there aren't any hyenas in North America. It would be wolverines. Or maybe badgers.

MusicMan · « **Reply #21 on:** February 01, 2018, 06:47:53 am »

Quote from: austro on January 31, 2018, 07:28:09 pm

Come on, don't be preposterous: there aren't any hyenas in North America. It would be wolverines. Or maybe badgers.

Badgers? We ain’t got no badgers!

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Fredia · « **Reply #22 on:** February 01, 2018, 08:28:19 am »

a giant armadillo?

subnuclear · « **Reply #23 on:** February 01, 2018, 09:30:01 am »

Quote from: JimR on January 31, 2018, 03:59:32 pm

What I heard from an insider at the time was Wynn and Morgan were getting in trouble together, and management thought they should be separated. I have no idea if this is true, but my source was in a position to know. What if Wynn had been the one to go?

I did not know that. Astros baseball starts about 1979 for me, but the 72-73 teams really had some great players.

juliogotay · « **Reply #24 on:** February 01, 2018, 09:45:01 am »

What if Luhnow had selected Appel over Correa in 2012?

Speaking of which.....Appel is leaving baseball for other pursuits. I wish him well. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2757009-why-mark-appel-perhaps-the-biggest-bust-in-mlb-history-is-retiring-at-26

GreatBagwellsBeard · « **Reply #25 on:** February 01, 2018, 10:07:52 am »

Quote from: juliogotay on February 01, 2018, 09:45:01 am

What if Luhnow had selected Appel over Correa in 2012?

Speaking of which.....Appel is leaving baseball for other pursuits. I wish him well. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2757009-why-mark-appel-perhaps-the-biggest-bust-in-mlb-history-is-retiring-at-26

Interesting article. I'm glad he's at peace about it; so many of the high profile draft picks who flame out don't have nearly this level of perspective or maturity.

JimR · « **Reply #26 on:** February 01, 2018, 10:08:15 am »

Quote from: juliogotay on February 01, 2018, 09:45:01 am

What if Luhnow had selected Appel over Correa in 2012?

Speaking of which.....Appel is leaving baseball for other pursuits. I wish him well. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2757009-why-mark-appel-perhaps-the-biggest-bust-in-mlb-history-is-retiring-at-26

That piece is all what if.

Bench · « **Reply #27 on:** February 01, 2018, 11:44:45 am »

Quote from: juliogotay on February 01, 2018, 09:45:01 am

What if Luhnow had selected Appel over Correa in 2012?

Wouldn't that also mean no McCullers?

Jacksonian · « **Reply #28 on:** February 01, 2018, 11:54:09 am »

Quote from: juliogotay on February 01, 2018, 09:45:01 am

What if Luhnow had selected Appel over Correa in 2012?

Speaking of which.....Appel is leaving baseball for other pursuits. I wish him well. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2757009-why-mark-appel-perhaps-the-biggest-bust-in-mlb-history-is-retiring-at-26

This is interesting since it means Appel would have had to have taken much less than he wanted. 2012 was the first year of the draft budget and pick price slotting. Recall Luhnow was perhaps the only but certainly the most high profile GM to understand how to manipulate it. Saving big on the #1 pick meant have a ton of money to go overslot later (McCullers).

juliogotay · « **Reply #29 on:** February 02, 2018, 10:21:18 am »

More on Appel: https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/mark-appels-retirement-highlights-challenges-of-scouting/#U9iU7Rbr3yRTJJ4B.97

Mike S. · « **Reply #30 on:** February 02, 2018, 12:26:08 pm »

To me, the impact of losing J.R. Richard is undervalued. With him in the rotation, I firmly believe the Astros win the World Series in 1980 and 1981, maybe even 1986 if he's anywhere close to close his level of dominance from a few years before. That alone rewrites so much of the team's history and erases an ungodly amount of heartbreak.