ALDS -- Astros vs. Red Sox

[ValpoCory]

No surprise here:

Houston Astros‏ @astros

AJ Hinch announces starters for the first two ALDS games.

Game 1 - Verlander
Game 2 - Keuchel

#EarnHistory

[BizidyDizidy]

Should we assume Morton game 3?

AstrosCounty on Twitter had a stat that Morton was the 6th best pitcher in AL by WAR in the second half, hadn't realized it was that good.

[NeilT]

Should we assume Morton game 3?

AstrosCounty on Twitter had a stat that Morton was the 6th best pitcher in AL by WAR in the second half, hadn't realized it was that good.

McCullers.   

[JimR]

McCullers.

Great example of your choice.

[Bench]

Should we assume Morton game 3?

AstrosCounty on Twitter had a stat that Morton was the 6th best pitcher in AL by WAR in the second half, hadn't realized it was that good.

I'm hoping for Morton, but Peacock wouldn't surprise me.  He certainly has earned it. 

[TerryPuhl21]

Peacock or Morton starts game 3. Game 4 starter could be Verlander on 3 days rest with Keuchel going game 5 if necessary on normal rest.

You could go with Peacock and Morton in games 3 and 4 with Verlander going in game 5, but I think that is unlikely.

If the first scenario above is the choice, you could see both Peacock and Morton in game 3 with one relieving the other in the 5th inning or thereabouts.


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[ValpoCory]

You could go with Peacock and Morton in games 3 and 4 with Verlander going in game 5, but I think that is unlikely.

I'm not sure that's unlikely.  Nothing Hinch has ever done has shown he's going to choose the 3 days rest option, despite how tempting the Game 2 to Game 5 normal rest scenario is.    Plus, there's not a huge "Clemens/Oswalt to Pete Munro"-like gap between the top 2 pitchers and the next two choices.   

Put me down for Verlander not starting again until Game 5, of if the BBGs allow, Game 1 of the next round.

[NeilT]

Great example of your choice.

Joke.  Sorry you're not amused. 

[BlownRanger]

I'm not sure that's unlikely.  Nothing Hinch has ever done has shown he's going to choose the 3 days rest option, despite how tempting the Game 2 to Game 5 normal rest scenario is.    Plus, there's not a huge "Clemens/Oswalt to Pete Munro"-like gap between the top 2 pitchers and the next two choices.   

Put me down for Verlander not starting again until Game 5, of if the BBGs allow, Game 1 of the next round.

I'm not sure Hinch has ever really had to ponder the 3-days rest option.  He was up 2 games to 1 against the Royals, and McHugh was not the tempting option that Verlander would be.  If the Astros are down 2-1, I really think he might consider it, particularly since Verlander will start Game 1 on seven days rest.

That brings up another question.  When was the last time a team had Game 1 and Game 2 starters going on 7 and 9 days rest?

[ValpoCory]

That brings up another question.  When was the last time a team had Game 1 and Game 2 starters going on 7 and 9 days rest?

With the addition of the 2nd Wild Card, things like this are becoming more common place for Division winners.   For example, in Game 1, Sale will be going on longer rest than Verlander.  The Dodgers top 2 starters also will be going on a combined 16 days of rest (Kershaw 5, Darvish 11).

But to answer your question, last year the Giants pitched Johnny Cueto on 7 days rest in Game 1 and Jeff Samardzija on 9 days rest in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Cubs.

[JimR]

Joke.  Sorry you're not amused.

The thread yesterday made me somewhat irritable. Sorry backatcha.

[NeilT]

The thread yesterday made me somewhat irritable. Sorry backatcha.

Didn't notice.  I've noticed that I get antsy, over-excited, and irritable during the playoffs.  I'll try to be on good behavior.   

[Limey]

Can I just say that I think the hashtag "Earn History" is appalling.  Maybe its because I am jaded by my former employer whose public pronouncements were generated - seemingly - by a corporate-speak computer and thus rendered simultaneously grammatically perfect, wholly unreadable and entirely meaningless.  Their corporate hashtag is "Empower Results".  To quote the late, great Bill O'Reilly:  "WTF does that even mean?"

Anyway, Go Stros!  Hey...now that's catchy...

[AstroFrog]

I am 1,200 miles from Houston, so it does not matter to me, but I just took a peek at StubHub and was surprised to find lots of fairly inexpensive tickets available  ($40 or less).

Is this an indicator of a soft crowd, tons of Boston fans, or probably both?  Has fan support for this team really not yet returned to the mid-aughts levels?

Those who know the dynamics better than I do can probably say whether this has everything to do with the midday starts.  I am sure it does.  I fear that the atmosphere won't deliver the home field edge we would hope for.

[Andyzipp]

3 pm start on a Thursday.  That's 99% of it.

The best case for a lot of us is we missed a week of work due to Harvey.  The worst case for some is that they're still missing work.  Disposable income for many of us has been depleted repairing our homes and the homes of our friends and families.

[AstroFrog]

The best case for a lot of us is we missed a week of work due to Harvey.  The worst case for some is that they're still missing work.  Disposable income for many of us has been depleted repairing our homes and the homes of our friends and families.

Good point.  I meant to include that in my post.  My folks in Friendswood fell in to the "missed a week of work" category.  They are not needing to repair/rebuild, but I realize that so many are.

[JimR]

The place was full, and the atmosphere was electric. Great crowd.

[Andyzipp]

Anyone else worried about Pomeranz today?

He's faced Houston twice this season, and allowed 7 hits and 2 runs in 12.1 innings.

[juliogotay]

Anyone else worried about Pomeranz today?

He's faced Houston twice this season, and allowed 7 hits and 2 runs in 12.1 innings.

Yes. I worry about everyone when it comes to baseball. He won the only one of the four in the season-ending series in Boston. Kind of a soft-tossing lefty that keeps guys off balance when he is on. But I was also worried about Sale as I should have been. Astros actually have a losing record this year against southpaws I believe. And I worry about Keuchel. Not sure what we are going to get with him. We really need this game. Boston would feel good I suspect with a split in Houston.

[BudGirl]

Yes. I worry about everyone when it comes to baseball. He won the only one of the four in the season-ending series in Boston. Kind of a soft-tossing lefty that keeps guys off balance when he is on. But I was also worried about Sale as I should have been. Astros actually have a losing record this year against southpaws I believe. And I worry about Keuchel. Not sure what we are going to get with him. We really need this game. Boston would feel good I suspect with a split in Houston.

I also worry about all games, but Pomeranz was up against McCullers in his last start. 

[Navin R Johnson]

Am I missing something, how or why would Peacock not be the game 3 starter?  He is clearly the 3rd best starter.

[Andyzipp]

Am I missing something, how or why would Peacock not be the game 3 starter?  He is clearly the 3rd best starter.

My guess is Morton, but I think it depends on how today goes.  I'm just praying McCullers isn't getting a start Sunday.

[BlownRanger]

Am I missing something, how or why would Peacock not be the game 3 starter?  He is clearly the 3rd best starter.

Peacock might very well be the G3 starter, but he also has a proven record of success out of the pen, and Morton has been pitching very well.

The following (courtesy of Astros County) would seem to indicate that if Peacock is not used today, he might very well go on Sunday.

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/astros/article/Why-Astros-manager-A-J-Hinch-is-waiting-to-name-12255683.php&cmpid=twitter-premium

[Mr. Appropriate]

Since I've been a fan the Astros have gotten to the League championship exactly twice. And I take nothing for granted in any postseason game featuring the Astros. Pomeranz pitched well in his last start against the Astros. So what? That game meant a lot to Boston, nothing to the Astros. Boston had to give Houston a look at one of their starters and I'm glad that our lineup has seen Pomeranz recently. He can be hit, and I know this team will find a way. No idea who's today's heroes are going to be. Doesn't matter. This is a lethal row of batters who have patience and power. Springer struck out a lot yesterday...anyone worried that he his going to struggle today? I'm not. I think he's due for a early HR in the first to set the tone for the rest of a very long day for Mr. Pomeranz. Sale, Pomeranz...so what? The Astros are going to face a lot of great pitchers on the road to the series. They can handle it. This city has never had an offense like this, nothing close. And Dallas? He knows he can still win if he gives up a few runs. These guys make each other better.

[Mr. Appropriate]

Was glad that A.J. Hinch used a lot of the guys in the bullpen yesterday---nice to see everyone get "blooded" for this postseason. And for those worried about Pomeranz...how do you feel about Doug Fister wearing a Boston uniform in game three? Personally, I think the new uni looks great on him.

[Andyzipp]

This city has never had an offense like this, nothing close.

Not to be argumentative, but 2017 is arguably the 2nd best offense the Astros have ever had.  2000 gets overlooked because the team was so, so bad.

2000 - .288/.372/.497, 1503 H, 281 2B, 248 HR, 508 BB, 989 Ks
2017 - .283/.374/.480, 1579 H, 345 2B, 238 HR, 664 BB, 1075 Ks
1998 - .289/.367/.453, 1523 H, 311 2B, 166 HR, 608 BB, 972 Ks
1994 - .283/.355/.459, 1049 H, 242 2B, 120 HR, 392 BB, 634 Ks

[NeilT]

Not to be argumentative, but 2017 is arguably the 2nd best offense the Astros have ever had.  2000 gets overlooked because the team was so, so bad.

2000 - .288/.372/.497, 1503 H, 281 2B, 248 HR, 508 BB, 989 Ks
2017 - .283/.374/.480, 1579 H, 345 2B, 238 HR, 664 BB, 1075 Ks
1998 - .289/.367/.453, 1523 H, 311 2B, 166 HR, 608 BB, 972 Ks
1994 - .283/.355/.459, 1049 H, 242 2B, 120 HR, 392 BB, 634 Ks

Are you sure that wasn't the batting line against Jose Lima?

[Andyzipp]

Are you sure that wasn't the batting line against Jose Lima?

Those numbers would be much, much better if we were talking Lima's offense allowed.

[MusicMan]

Not to be argumentative, but 2017 is arguably the 2nd best offense the Astros have ever had.  2000 gets overlooked because the team was so, so bad.

2000 - .288/.372/.497, 1503 H, 281 2B, 248 HR, 508 BB, 989 Ks
2017 - .283/.374/.480, 1579 H, 345 2B, 238 HR, 664 BB, 1075 Ks
1998 - .289/.367/.453, 1523 H, 311 2B, 166 HR, 608 BB, 972 Ks
1994 - .283/.355/.459, 1049 H, 242 2B, 120 HR, 392 BB, 634 Ks

I can’t check it right now but offensive levels were much higher across the league in 2000.


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[Andyzipp]

I can’t check it right now but offensive levels were much higher across the league in 2000.


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Sure, and I didn’t adjust 1998 or 1994 for playing in the Dome,  but if the standard was “nothing close” I don’t think that standard can be met.


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[Mr. Appropriate]

Not to be argumentative, but 2017 is arguably the 2nd best offense the Astros have ever had.  2000 gets overlooked because the team was so, so bad.

2000 - .288/.372/.497, 1503 H, 281 2B, 248 HR, 508 BB, 989 Ks
2017 - .283/.374/.480, 1579 H, 345 2B, 238 HR, 664 BB, 1075 Ks
1998 - .289/.367/.453, 1523 H, 311 2B, 166 HR, 608 BB, 972 Ks
1994 - .283/.355/.459, 1049 H, 242 2B, 120 HR, 392 BB, 634 Ks

How dare you confront my irrational exuberance with cold, lifeless "facts"?
I loved the 1994 team. This one is better.
1998 was epic, in the regular season. This one is better. (Verlander already has more postseason wins than Johnson on the pitching front, and Altuve seems determined to own the October production records for his position).

2000...you are right, I completely forgot how good there offensive production was--especially since the other teams were having such great years too when they faced the Astros.

[Andyzipp]

How dare you confront my irrational exuberance with cold, lifeless "facts"?
I loved the 1994 team. This one is better.
1998 was epic, in the regular season. This one is better. (Verlander already has more postseason wins than Johnson on the pitching front, and Altuve seems determined to own the October production records for his position).

2000...you are right, I completely forgot how good there offensive production was--especially since the other teams were having such great years too when they faced the Astros.

No worries.  Just saying the team has had good offensive teams before.  In the playoffs, 2004 was pretty special as well.  But I hope you're right by virtue of the first tiebreaker being world series championships.

[mrpink]

Sure, and I didn’t adjust 1998 or 1994 for playing in the Dome,  but if the standard was “nothing close” I don’t think that standard can be met.


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Adjusted for run environment he is correct.  This year's team has a wRC+ of 121, the next best is the 1998 club at 113.  The 2000 team was the 6th best of all time, right behind the 1972 club who was led by Cedeno, Wynn, and Watson.

[Ty in Tampa]

Am I missing something, how or why would Peacock not be the game 3 starter?  He is clearly the 3rd best starter.

Looks like you get your wish. Peacock to start Sunday.

[Andyzipp]

Adjusted for run environment he is correct.  This year's team has a wRC+ of 121, the next best is the 1998 club at 113.  The 2000 team was the 6th best of all time, right behind the 1972 club who was led by Cedeno, Wynn, and Watson.

And there you go.

[JimR]

Adjusted for run environment he is correct.  This year's team has a wRC+ of 121, the next best is the 1998 club at 113.  The 2000 team was the 6th best of all time, right behind the 1972 club who was led by Cedeno, Wynn, and Watson.

WTF?

[Navin R Johnson]

What a fun 2 days.  I'm scared to look at my credit card statement though, $25+ a pop at the beer stand is gonna leave a mark, but it was well worth it.

I was really worried about homefield advantage with day games, but the crowds were fantastic.   Not sure how it sounded on TV but it reminded me of the 2003/2004 years.   Those fan things they gave away yesterday were great for making noise.

Altuve picked the right time to get hot, the MVP chants were awesome and he lived up to it.  I thought for sure inhis last AB he was gonna hit a grand slam, MMP would have absolutely exploded if had.

[JimR]

What a fun 2 days.  I'm scared to look at my credit card statement though, $25+ a pop at the beer stand is gonna leave a mark, but it was well worth it.

I was really worried about homefield advantage with day games, but the crowds were fantastic.   Not sure how it sounded on TV but it reminded me of the 2003/2004 years.   Those fan things they gave away yesterday were great for making noise.

Altuve picked the right time to get hot, the MVP chants were awesome and he lived up to it.  I thought for sure inhis last AB he was gonna hit a grand slam, MMP would have absolutely exploded if had.

He tried and swung at one neck high.

ETA: Angel would have called it a strike.

[Navin R Johnson]

speaking of Altuve.  I took my nephew to the game, here is his sign.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLfdzgMVwAA7jHc?format=jpg

[Lefty]

speaking of Altuve.  I took my nephew to the game, here is his sign.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLfdzgMVwAA7jHc?format=jpg

That's some Hinch-level penmanship by the young man.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

speaking of Altuve.  I took my nephew to the game, here is his sign.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLfdzgMVwAA7jHc?format=jpg

Nice.  Glad you and he got to share that experience.

[das]

Another casualty of this horrendous tropical storm season; I fear my plans to sit glued to the TV today at 1pm EST will be ruined by the remnants of Hurricane Nate...

[Reuben]

Another casualty of this horrendous tropical storm season; I fear my plans to sit glued to the TV today at 1pm EST will be ruined by the remnants of Hurricane Nate...

Apparently MLB believes they can start on time and play a couple hours before the rain forces a delay. What do you think?

[das]

Apparently MLB believes they can start on time and play a couple hours before the rain forces a delay. What do you think?

Maybe 30 minutes....

[Andyzipp]

Maybe 30 minutes....

Meteorologists = professional guessers.

J/k

[ValpoCory]

In the last few years, almost all MLB postseason games in the last 40 years have been added to YouTube. I've gone back to watch the 1980 and 1986 Astros games, as I was too young to experience those live.

Although I didn't experience it live, in my opinion today's game felt like the crazy Games 4 and 5 of the 1980 NLCS between the Astros and the Pete Rose/Mike Schmidt/Steve Carlton/Tug McGraw Phillies. Those games were extremely weird with wild swings in win expectancy. Unlike those, I'm glad this one ended in Houston's favor.

Check out today's win expectancy chart. The Astros were over 60% favorites early, then the Red Sox were 60% favorites, then the Astros again, then the Red Sox again (up to 78% favorites), then the Astros again to stay.

[Bench]

So, uh, does anyone know the procedure for getting refunds for game 5 tickets?

[Astros Fan in Big D]

So, uh, does anyone know the procedure for getting refunds for game 5 tickets?

FS1 is wondering the same thing.

[Craig]

Sorry if this is inappropriate, but I saw this hilarious NSFW gif on reddit.

The Verlander Victory Train

[Astros Fan in Big D]

BoSox manager's take on things:

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2017/10/09/heres-what-john-farrell-had-to-say-about-his-ejection-his-team-and-his-future

[Gulf Coast Playboy]

BoSox manager's take on things:

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2017/10/09/heres-what-john-farrell-had-to-say-about-his-ejection-his-team-and-his-future

Thanks for posting.  To me the most interesting part of that interview is how Farrell doesn’t bat an eye in describing his thought process on bullpen decisions, etc. subsequent to his ejection.  Am I the only one on here who naively thought that a manager isn’t supposed to participate in those kinds of decisions after an ejection? 

Strange thing for me to be hung up on after a historically fun win for the good guys today, perhaps, but I’m not sure I’ve ever heard official MLB rule on that, if there is one.


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[JimR]

Thanks for posting.  To me the most interesting part of that interview is how Farrell doesn’t bat an eye in describing his thought process on bullpen decisions, etc. subsequent to his ejection.  Am I the only one on here who naively thought that a manager isn’t supposed to participate in those kinds of decisions after an ejection? 

Strange thing for me to be hung up on after a historically fun win for the good guys today, perhaps, but I’m not sure I’ve ever heard official MLB rule on that, if there is one.


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I do not know if there is a rule, but I think SOP is to go into the tunnel or somewhere else out of sight and to continue to manage the game.

[Knoxbanedoodle]

Thanks for posting.  To me the most interesting part of that interview is how Farrell doesn’t bat an eye in describing his thought process on bullpen decisions, etc. subsequent to his ejection.  Am I the only one on here who naively thought that a manager isn’t supposed to participate in those kinds of decisions after an ejection? 

Strange thing for me to be hung up on after a historically fun win for the good guys today, perhaps, but I’m not sure I’ve ever heard official MLB rule on that, if there is one.


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I had the exact same response. When he was kicked I thought, Is there anyway in 2017 that this is considered more than just a ceremonial rebuke? I mean, Valentine at least put on a mustache...

[JimR]

BoSox manager's take on things:

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2017/10/09/heres-what-john-farrell-had-to-say-about-his-ejection-his-team-and-his-future

Thanks for posting this. Classy comments. I thought the ejection was quick also, and I assumed Farrell intentionally got himself tossed to protect his player.

[HudsonHawk]

I do not know if there is a rule, but I think SOP is to go into the tunnel or somewhere else out of sight and to continue to manage the game.

There is a rule that an ejected manager cannot advise in the game further or have contact with the substitute manager.  Obviously in this day and age that's hard to enforce.

[HudsonHawk]

Thanks for posting this. Classy comments. I thought the ejection was quick also, and I assumed Farrell intentionally got himself tossed to protect his player.

I felt bad for a Farrell because Pedroia was just not going to give it up and was hell bent on someone getting tossed. Farrell took one for his team there, but I'd be steamed at little "Pedey".

[JimR]

I felt bad for a Farrell because Pedroia was just not going to give it up and was hell bent on someone getting tossed. Farrell took one for his team there, but I'd be steamed at little "Pedey".

HPU gave them one back with the strike three call on Altuve on a curve that nearly hit him in the knee.

[Limey]

BoSox manager's take on things:

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2017/10/09/heres-what-john-farrell-had-to-say-about-his-ejection-his-team-and-his-future

I guess "Pedey" is better than "Paedo".

[Limey]

HPU gave them one back with the strike three call on Altuve on a curve that nearly hit him in the knee.

The zone calling in this series has been pretty random, Hernandez notwithstanding.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

Farrell fired:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/red-sox-fire-manager-john-farrell-after-second-straight-alds-defeat/

[JimR]

Farrell fired:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/red-sox-fire-manager-john-farrell-after-second-straight-alds-defeat/

Scapegoating, of course. Was it his responsibility to replace Ortiz?

[MRaup]

Scapegoating, of course. Was it his responsibility to replace Ortiz?

Are you trying to suggest that it's not the manager's fault that the team didn't hit better?!

"Strawberry! Hit a homerun!"

"Alright, skip."

>hits a home run<

"I told him to do that!"

[das]

Meteorologists = professional guessers.

J/k

Me and baseball players; happy with a 30% success rate...

:^0

[BUWebguy]

Scapegoating, of course. Was it his responsibility to replace Ortiz?

ESPN makes it sound like Farrell was held responsible for ratings being down (!?!?):

In dumping Farrell now, Dombrowski agreed that the team needs a new voice in the clubhouse and a fresh public face. Despite another first-place American League East finish, the Red Sox grew increasingly unpopular this season. Prime-time television ratings on New England Sports Network dropped 15 percent below ratings last year, which was David Ortiz's final season. Within the past few days, ownership came around to the idea that Farrell was partly responsible.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/20988965/boston-red-sox-manager-john-farrell-return-2018

[juliogotay]

ESPN makes it sound like Farrell was held responsible for ratings being down (!?!?):

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/20988965/boston-red-sox-manager-john-farrell-return-2018

Maybe they can get Lady GaGa.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

Are you trying to suggest that it's not the manager's fault that the team didn't hit better?!

"Strawberry! Hit a homerun!"

"Alright, skip."

>hits a home run<

"I told him to do that!"

Well Mr Burns had done it . . .

[Knoxbanedoodle]

ESPN makes it sound like Farrell was held responsible for ratings being down (!?!?):

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/20988965/boston-red-sox-manager-john-farrell-return-2018

"...ownership came around to the idea that Farrell was partly responsible." LOL. Classic. Wonderful.

[NeilT]

"...ownership came around to the idea that Farrell was partly responsible." LOL. Classic. Wonderful.

You laugh.  The manager is always responsible for ratings.  Just ask BG why she watches Detroit. 

[BudGirl]

You laugh.  The manager is always responsible for ratings.  Just ask BG why she watches Detroit. 

I don't anymore.

[Fredia]

noted. and I am sure you will find ..Ausmus somewhere else happy and coaching again

[BlownRanger]

You laugh.  The manager is always responsible for ratings.  Just ask BG why she watches Detroit.

BudGirl a Mets fan?

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/brad-ausmus-is-reportedly-a-candidate-to-be-the-mets-next-manager/

[JimR]

"...ownership came around to the idea that Farrell was partly responsible." LOL. Classic. Wonderful.

Lamest excuse in the history of excuses.

[NeilT]

I don't anymore.

I had missed that completely.  Detroit is dead to me now.