SI article analyzing the trade

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Some interesting information about the Justin Verlander trade.

For Verlander—an older pitcher making a lot of money—Luhnow had sacrificed potentially 18 controllable seasons from future contributors. If it wasn’t the first move he had made contrary to his data, it was, without a doubt, the most prominent.

“The reality is that any economic modeling that includes projections is not going to like a deadline deal, where you’re trading what could be an enormous amount of future value for a decent amount of present value,” says Luhnow. “The math does not support these types of deals. It’s a matter of using your best judgment.”

The past six years have confirmed for Luhnow and his staff that while their probabilistic models are useful, they are not infallible. “If anybody tells you they have an idea of what the future looks like, don’t believe them,” says Sig Mejdal, the former NASA engineer who has long been Luhnow’s chief data man. (His title is Special Assistant to the GM, Process Improvement.) “The future is a lot weirder than we can imagine.”

[JimR]

Great article

[Bench]

Thanks for posting.  Great article, but I particularly liked the interactive graphic about halfway down which has you guess the weakest part of the strike zone for Astros hitters.  Altuve hits over .400 on pitches in the strikezone (I assume that's what the graphic means but maybe it means pitches in the strikezone that he swings at) in all but two of the nine zones.  In those he hits .292 and .270.

[Bench]

This tidbit in the article on JD Martinez clears up a lot about what's been discussed several times on this board:

“He’d told us he’d made some changes to his swing that offseason,” says Luhnow, sheepishly. “We didn’t give him enough at bats in spring training to show us. Literally four days after we released him, he’s playing on a back field in Kissimmee against the Astros’ Triple A team and he hits three home runs. It was like, What did we just do?”

[Jacksonian]

This is the kind of bullshit that infuriates me: “They don’t give up anything in deals,” an opposing GM complained of the Astros earlier this season.

They gave up high end prospects in the Gomez deal and now the Verlander deal.  They gave up solid prospects in the Kazmir deal, Gattis deal, and Giles deal.  I don't know how many deals they've turned down but when they really want a major leaguer they're willing to pay to get him.

[JimR]

This tidbit in the article on JD Martinez clears up a lot about what's been discussed several times on this board:

“He’d told us he’d made some changes to his swing that offseason,” says Luhnow, sheepishly. “We didn’t give him enough at bats in spring training to show us. Literally four days after we released him, he’s playing on a back field in Kissimmee against the Astros’ Triple A team and he hits three home runs. It was like, What did we just do?”

I thought the same thing when I read it, and there is no arrogance or defensiveness in his response. He admits he made a big mistake in not taking enough time to evaluate the changes.

[JimR]

Thanks for posting.  Great article, but I particularly liked the interactive graphic about halfway down which has you guess the weakest part of the strike zone for Astros hitters.  Altuve hits over .400 on pitches in the strikezone (I assume that's what the graphic means but maybe it means pitches in the strikezone that he swings at) in all but two of the nine zones.  In those he hits .292 and .270.

If Altuve had the plate discipline of Williams or Bonds, he might hit .500.

[juliogotay]

If Altuve had the plate discipline of Williams or Bonds, he might hit .500.

I wake up screaming at some of his ABs in the KC series of 2015. Did not meet a pitch he didn't like.

[JimR]

I wake up screaming at some of his ABs in the KC series of 2015. Did not meet a pitch he didn't like.

Just as bad or worse right now.

[TerryPuhl21]

Just as bad or worse right now.

Jim, I was just about to post the same thing. It seems like the closer we get to October, the wilder his swings become. I wonder if there is some research out there, and I'm sure there is, for swings at pitches outside the zone. I'd almost bet a weeks pay that his goes up each September.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[juliogotay]

Jim, I was just about to post the same thing. It seems like the closer we get to October, the wilder his swings become. I wonder if there is some research out there, and I'm sure there is, for swings at pitches outside the zone. I'd almost bet a weeks pay that his goes up each September.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

he needs to realize he doesn't have to carry this team on his shoulders.

[juliogotay]

as if we needed another reason to love Kate Upton http://nypost.com/2017/09/22/kate-upton-helped-push-justin-verlander-to-astros/

[MusicMan]

as if we needed another reason to love Kate Upton http://nypost.com/2017/09/22/kate-upton-helped-push-justin-verlander-to-astros/

We all need the love and support of a good swimsuit model.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

We all need the love and support of a good swimsuit model.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

As far as I'm concerned this young fan is welcome back anytime.

[HudsonHawk]

If Altuve had the plate discipline of Williams or Bonds, he might hit .500.

I he only swung at pitches that he could literally reach with the bat, he'd be hitting .400, easily. 

[geezerdonk]

Altuve following in Biggio's footsteps. Opposing managers should fine any pitcher that throws a pitch to Altuve within half a foot of the strike zone.

[juliogotay]

another Verlander-to-Astros story with some great tidbits mixed in about Harvey and the effect on the players and staff. If you aren't familiar with the Houston police officer that moonlights as bullpen security for the club you want to be.  Absolutely an awesome read. http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/20775326/justin-verlander-brings-world-series-hope-astros-city-houston

[JimR]

another Verlander-to-Astros story with some great tidbits mixed in about Harvey and the effect on the players and staff. If you aren't familiar with the Houston police officer that moonlights as bullpen security for the club you want to be.  Absolutely an awesome read. http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/20775326/justin-verlander-brings-world-series-hope-astros-city-houston

What a great article

[Knoxbanedoodle]

Just as bad or worse right now.

How bad a shitstorm would ensue if the probable MVP hit 9th in the postseason? Food for thought. I know it won't happen and hope he will reverse the trend.

[Reuben]

Franklin Perez could win the 2019 Cy Young and this trade will have been totally worth it.

[chuck]

Franklin Perez could win the 2019 Cy Young and this trade will have been totally worth it.

I don't give a shit if he wins three in a row.

[Lefty]

Franklin Perez could win the 2019 Cy Young and this trade will have been totally worth it.

Who?

[das]

Franklin Perez could win the 2019 Cy Young and this trade will have been totally worth it.

9-0 with 5 wins in the post season > Randy Johnson 10-1. I never thought I’d say a mid-season acquisition would top Johnson. We’re there, ladies and gents.

[Fredia]

last minute deals both

[Reuben]

9-0 with 5 wins in the post season > Randy Johnson 10-1. I never thought I’d say a mid-season acquisition would top Johnson. We’re there, ladies and gents.

5 wins in the regular season. And I absolutely agree.