TS (now Hurricane) Harvey

[das]

For those of you in Texas, please keep an eye on Harvey.  Two main concerns:  1) as the storm approaches the coast, the steering currents that move a storm around will collapse so, once the storm moves inland, it could sit-and-spin or meander around for multiple days.  This is a classic signature for a significant flooding event in your area.  And, 2) the storm has been in hostile development environments for it's entire lifecycle so far.  That is about to change and, for the next 36-48 hours, the storm has the potential to rapidly intensify.  Waters are warm, upper level outflow is significantly improving and the forward motion is perfect to negate upwelling.  The current forecast pegs the storm at 80-ish mph at landfall but, rapid intensification cycles are the least understood period of development for tropical systems.  Forecasters are getting good at seeing the conditions for RI development but why one storm responds and another does not is still unknown as is the amount of intensification during the RI phase.  So, this one bears watching.

Hit me with questions throughout the day if you have them...

[das]

Well, It's already started.

Location:21120
ID: 597   Posted 3 minutes ago · Report post
7am update

Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
700 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS HARVEY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 93.0W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/

It should be telling that the Corpus NWS site has started boarding up their facility in the last hour and emergency management officials are starting their relocation preps to be able to move just outside of the periphery so they can continue their ops during the storm. . I would not be surprised to see Harvey at hurricane strength sometime today.

[jbm]

Thanks for the info.  It sure looks more organized on the satellite this morning.

I've taken an interest in these my whole life, from an interested layperson point of view.  It seems like forecasters are so damn good at accurately predicting tracks these days, so good that it sort of worries me.  I suspect that public officials will become so confident in forecaster's skill that the general public is more susceptible to a black swan type event.  You know, where officials choose not to evacuate or properly alert a nearby area because of confidence in the forecast, but the forecast turns out wrong.  In the past, when officials had less confidence in the forecast, everyone played it on the safe side.

I suppose a higher probability calamity would come from a storm like this, where everyone basically stays in place due to the expected strength, but rapid intensification catches the public off guard.

[MusicMan]

Multiple forecasts down here have this as "worse than Allison", which flooded the city for a week. Sound right?


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[das]

Multiple forecasts down here have this as "worse than Allison", which flooded the city for a week. Sound right?

It's a distinct possibility re: the flooding.  Potential for wind being much higher than Allison is there too.  Looking more likely.

[das]

Thanks for the info.  It sure looks more organized on the satellite this morning.

I've taken an interest in these my whole life, from an interested layperson point of view.  It seems like forecasters are so damn good at accurately predicting tracks these days, so good that it sort of worries me.  I suspect that public officials will become so confident in forecaster's skill that the general public is more susceptible to a black swan type event.  You know, where officials choose not to evacuate or properly alert a nearby area because of confidence in the forecast, but the forecast turns out wrong.  In the past, when officials had less confidence in the forecast, everyone played it on the safe side.

I suppose a higher probability calamity would come from a storm like this, where everyone basically stays in place due to the expected strength, but rapid intensification catches the public off guard.

Forecasting track has gone through quantum improvements in the last decade.  They really are quite exceptional.  So much so that the public now quibbles over a 50 mile shift in actual landfall (and associated "in my backyard implications" base on a forecast they received 5 days previously.  Most of the research work now is focused on intensification.  They will get good at that soon as well, especially now that NWS has received funding for appropriate supercomputer hardware.

The public perception and reaction is critical here.  The NWS "weather ready nation" program, working in partnership with local emergency management agencies and officials along with the media, is an area of intense work.  What good is an excellent forecast if it is not effectively communicated in a way that gets most people to respond in ways that will protect life and property?  There are difficult sociological, societal, linguistic and technology challenges to overcome but the right people are working on it.  If you've noticed a difference in the way that community discusses and warns about floods and severe weather over the last year, that is an outcome to some of that work.  It will continue to pivot to better over the next couple of years.

You'll see the press and EMA officials talking very loudly to the public starting later today.  Very little of the public will not hear it.  Whether they do something is a different story...

[Duke]

Waters are warm,

I read that the Gulf water temp is 85 degrees.  That's the same as Lake Travis.  Pretty remarkable.

[Limey]

For those of you in Texas, please keep an eye on Harvey.  Two main concerns:  1) as the storm approaches the coast, the steering currents that move a storm around will collapse so, once the storm moves inland, it could sit-and-spin or meander around for multiple days.  This is a classic signature for a significant flooding event in your area.  And, 2) the storm has been in hostile development environments for it's entire lifecycle so far.  That is about to change and, for the next 36-48 hours, the storm has the potential to rapidly intensify.  Waters are warm, upper level outflow is significantly improving and the forward motion is perfect to negate upwelling.  The current forecast pegs the storm at 80-ish mph at landfall but, rapid intensification cycles are the least understood period of development for tropical systems.  Forecasters are getting good at seeing the conditions for RI development but why one storm responds and another does not is still unknown as is the amount of intensification during the RI phase.  So, this one bears watching.

Hit me with questions throughout the day if you have them...

Look!  Just tell me if it's going to fucking rain or not. 

[MusicMan]

Look!  Just tell me if it's going to fucking rain or not. 

It's gonna rain for 40 days and 40 nights, and we'll wait for the sewers to back up.


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[BudGirl]

I don't think I want to drive to San Antonio for a bridal shower, even if I am one of the hostesses. 

DAS, would you let your wife/daughter drive that this weekend?

[Andyzipp]

I don't think I want to drive to San Antonio for a bridal shower, even if I am one of the hostesses. 

DAS, would you let your wife/daughter drive that this weekend?

If I were you, I'd drive to San Antonio and stay there until Thursday.  Judging by the local news, it's going to be Lord of the Flies here from midday Saturday until Wednesday.

[Andyzipp]

Forecasting track has gone through quantum improvements in the last decade.  They really are quite exceptional.  So much so that the public now quibbles over a 50 mile shift in actual landfall (and associated "in my backyard implications" base on a forecast they received 5 days previously.  Most of the research work now is focused on intensification.  They will get good at that soon as well, especially now that NWS has received funding for appropriate supercomputer hardware.

The public perception and reaction is critical here.  The NWS "weather ready nation" program, working in partnership with local emergency management agencies and officials along with the media, is an area of intense work.  What good is an excellent forecast if it is not effectively communicated in a way that gets most people to respond in ways that will protect life and property?  There are difficult sociological, societal, linguistic and technology challenges to overcome but the right people are working on it.  If you've noticed a difference in the way that community discusses and warns about floods and severe weather over the last year, that is an outcome to some of that work.  It will continue to pivot to better over the next couple of years.

You'll see the press and EMA officials talking very loudly to the public starting later today.  Very little of the public will not hear it.  Whether they do something is a different story...

Sounds great...will any of that stop Frank Billingsley from trying to scare the crap out of everyone every time it rains?

[BudGirl]

If I were you, I'd drive to San Antonio and stay there until Thursday.  Judging by the local news, it's going to be Lord of the Flies here from midday Saturday until Wednesday.

I'm not driving until Saturday morning.  I'm seeing Coldplay unless they reschedule.  Then I have tickets for the Astros on  the 1st then going to SA for the UH/UTSA game on the 2nd. 

And the local news mess themselves when there is a breeze.  That's why I love DAS.

[Limey]

Sounds great...will any of that stop Frank Billingsley from trying to scare the crap out of everyone every time it rains?

He is the worst for this.

Every Frank Billinglsey storm warning ever.

[Ebby Calvin]

I don't think I want to drive to San Antonio for a bridal shower, even if I am one of the hostesses. 

DAS, would you let your wife/daughter drive that this weekend?

I have to catch a plane Sunday morning.  Kinda hoping the airport's shut down.

[BudGirl]

I have to catch a plane Sunday morning.  Kinda hoping the airport's shut down.

your trip is obviously for work.

[Ebby Calvin]

your trip is obviously for work.

Yep!

[das]

I don't think I want to drive to San Antonio for a bridal shower, even if I am one of the hostesses. 

DAS, would you let your wife/daughter drive that this weekend?

No.

[HudsonHawk]

No.

Well crap. Was going to go to the place this weekend, but not now.

[das]

Sounds great...will any of that stop Frank Billingsley from trying to scare the crap out of everyone every time it rains?

Ha.  Don't know him but his concern probably comes from a good place.  Flooding is (by far) the biggest weather related killer.  People are profoundly stupid when it comes to moving water.

[das]

Well crap. Was going to go to the place this weekend, but not now.

The wind will have died down by the weekend but the storm will move 100 miles inland, sit for a bit then reverse course and meander back to the SSE.  Could be upwards of 20" in places and it's impossible to say exactly where but, under this scenario, all of SE Texas could get at least 6-10".  You all know what that does to the chaparral to the west of town out there as well as what it has done (repeatedly) in downtown Houston.

[BudGirl]

No.

Thanks.  I really appreciate your help.

[Limey]

The wind will have died down by the weekend but the storm will move 100 miles inland, sit for a bit then reverse course and meander back to the SSE.  Could be upwards of 20" in places and it's impossible to say exactly where but, under this scenario, all of SE Texas could get at least 6-10".  You all know what that does to the chaparral to the west of town out there as well as what it has done (repeatedly) in downtown Houston.

The latest track I saw has Harvey heading through San Antonio on Sunday.  Are you saying he could wander back Houston's way after that?

Just trying to assess what the Harvey Danger is.

[homer]

I have to catch a plane Sunday morning.  Kinda hoping the airport's shut down.

Same.

[MusicMan]

People are profoundly stupid when it comes to moving water.

Some of them even make the Hall of Fame after proving that.


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[das]

Now for the pretty stuff.  GOES-16, launched in the fall, is in pre-operational testing.  It carries an incredible suite of sensors and some of that data is available through university research departments and government/academia co-ops.  Here's some links:

1 minute visible scans centered on the storm from the College of DuPage:
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-02-200-1
Click the mesoscale floaters link over on the left to see other products from the sensor suite like IR, precipitable water, etc... and let me know if you have questions on what they are and what value they provide to forecasters.

Full resolution, configurable loopers centered on the storm from CIRA/Colorado State:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-16.asp
Click on the MDS 1 Sector 5 (center) Band 2 (0.64 µm, 0.5 km) HTML 5 link for a full rez view of the storm.  The default setting is "display=40" up in the address bar (last 40 images, ~40 minutes) once you click the link.  Make that number bigger to see more images, if you have a fast computer and a big pipe.

Full resolution visible and IR images from the Univ. of Wisconsin:
https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16_fullres.html
Here's the full rez image for North America in glorious 12,000 x 9,000 pixel (0.5km) resolution.  It's labeled "Visible (ABI ch 2)
Linear enh" in the link above.  (Biiiiiiiiig file)
http://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/vis/full/latest_full_1.jpg

For radar, buy RadarScope for you Apple/Android device.  It's far and away the best tool out there, used by every meteorologist and storm chaser. 
https://radarscope.io/
If you don't what to spend the $9.99, you can use the excellent College of Dupage link:
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=HGX-N0Q-1-6

For a good mosaic of all radars in full 1km resolution, the University of Washington has a great tool:
https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?radar_us_full+/2h/

Of course, the NWS is the best source for up to the minute watches and warnings. Heed what they say, do what they say.  I would not trust any other source, including Houston-based media.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=29.7606&lon=-95.3697#.WZ7x4tMrLOY
Click on the little map over on the right to choose your neighborhood.  The NWS uses a 0.5km gridded forecast that is accurate to individual neighborhoods and is updated very frequently.

NHC in NWS is the best source for current status on the storm.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Click on the "Forecast Discussion" link in the storm-specific area for the latest thoughts on the storm.  The excellent meteorologists there in Miami talk very freely and frankly in there.

[das]

The latest track I saw has Harvey heading through San Antonio on Sunday.  Are you saying he could wander back Houston's way after that?

Just trying to assess what the Harvey Danger is.

Yes,  It's forecast to stall 100-200 miles inland then meander back over the Houston area.  The storm is relatively large (typical after a storm has had an initial interaction with land) so while that center point of the storm will move inland and then trend back to the SE, the effects may never actually cease over a large swath.

[Limey]

Yes,  It's forecast to stall 100-200 miles inland then meander back over the Houston area.  The storm is relatively large (typical after a storm has had an initial interaction with land) so while that center point of the storm will move inland and then trend back to the SE, the effects may never actually cease over a large swath.

Okay, so the scariest environment imaginable. Thanks. That's all you gotta say, scariest environment imaginable.

[jbm]

Whoa.  The Washington Post article said it could be a Cat 3 by landfall.  I'm not seeing that at the NWS site.  Is this correct?

[Andyzipp]

Whoa.  The Washington Post article said it could be a Cat 3 by landfall.  I'm not seeing that at the NWS site.  Is this correct?

Besides das, check out www.SpaceCityWeather.com.  Eric Berger is also reporting the potential of intensification, but in a scare-free sort of way.

[Bench]

Besides das, check out www.SpaceCityWeather.com.  Eric Berger is also reporting the potential of intensification, but in a scare-free sort of way.

Those are the two most reliable meteorologists. 

Berger's 10:30am update says "Harvey is now anticipated to come ashore with 115-mph winds, just over the threshold of Category-3, or major hurricane status."

[Andyzipp]

Just occurred to me, is there any way MLB can avoid making us play some of the Ranger's series in Milwaukee next week? 

[das]

Whoa.  The Washington Post article said it could be a Cat 3 by landfall.  I'm not seeing that at the NWS site.  Is this correct?

Very possible.

[das]

Besides das, check out www.SpaceCityWeather.com.  Eric Berger is also reporting the potential of intensification, but in a scare-free sort of way.

Berger is good people.  Very trustworthy.

[das]

Latest GFS (american) model has come in with whopping rain totals.  I can't embed pics so here's a link:
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/i/user-images/599f0162715c9.png&key=ae88fdba89712b172c79a6e91537a21497b799b43b382ecbd66e14e1a889a590

Here's a higher resolution model showing some of the same:
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017082412/gem_apcpn_scus_36.png&key=a037fb2b86f8ab9bcd95c84b20ac092d88d65a2d2741f04140527047bb888f11

The areal coverage of 12"+ rainfall is massive.

[Phil_in_CS]

Kinda wild I go to an Astros forum for my hurricane news.

A friend just sent this link, from the same site Das linked above
http://i.imgur.com/bwJE6bl.jpg

The moving in, stalling and sitting, is what Allison did that caused such terrible flooding.

[Phil_in_CS]

Also for those in coastal areas, the NHC has a new experimental graphic on storm surges, trying to predict how deep the water will be with a high level of detail.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152721.shtml?inundation#contents

Some places around Victoria show 6 to 9 feet of water on the ground.

[das]

Harvey is a hurricane now.  35mph to 80 mph in 15 hours.  Classic Rapid Intensification.  The drop from 1002mb pressure to 981mb in that same 15 hours is even more telling as tht 981mb pressure is indicative of stronger wind speeds once they have time to "catch up" and the pressures are still falling quickly.

[das]

Kinda wild I go to an Astros forum for my hurricane news.

A friend just sent this link, from the same site Das linked above
http://i.imgur.com/bwJE6bl.jpg

The moving in, stalling and sitting, is what Allison did that caused such terrible flooding.

That site (www.americanwx.com) is far and away the best weather forum on the interwebs.  Degreed meteorologists (of which there are many on the site) have a "red tag" meaning their name is highlighted in red so you can know who to pay attention to if you are looking for relevant and trustworthy information.  Unsurprisingly, I post as "das" there too...

[Duke]

Thanks Das.  You are awesome.

[Andyzipp]

Harvey is a hurricane now.  35mph to 80 mph in 15 hours.  Classic Rapid Intensification.  The drop from 1002mb pressure to 981mb in that same 15 hours is even more telling as tht 981mb pressure is indicative of stronger wind speeds once they have time to "catch up" and the pressures are still falling quickly.

It probably doesn't work this way (and feel free to point out my ignorance) but does the idea that this is going to become a more powerful storm in any way mitigate the "wandering" it's supposed to do once Harvey makes landfall, or is the high pressure, lack of steering winds going to keep it headed back to the east?

I'll hang up and listen.

[das]

It probably doesn't work this way (and feel free to point out my ignorance) but does the idea that this is going to become a more powerful storm in any way mitigate the "wandering" it's supposed to do once Harvey makes landfall, or is the high pressure, lack of steering winds going to keep it headed back to the east?

I'll hang up and listen.

Not really.  While it will be a powerful storm, it will loose it's oomph fairly quickly once it gets north of the marshy areas just inland.  Plus, the high pressures it will encounter to the NW and the NE (creating those doldrums in between where the storm will be going) are more massive up through the entire atmosphere column and, therefor more influential.  That's why you typically see tropical systems glance off or around high pressure or, more typically, destroyed by high pressure.  Think about it from a cross section point of view:  If you look at a high pressure from the side, it looks like an upside down bowl.  A low pressure, it looks like a right side up bowl.  Put them together and all that mass in the higher high pressure wants to run down into the bowl of the low pressure to create equilibrium.  The reason the storm may track back to the SE is because the high pressure to the NW may be a bit stronger so it's winds from the NW may win the battle.

[das]

Just because it's cool:  The NWS started hanging a doppler radar unit on a chain off the tail of their hurricane hunter aircraft recently.  Here's an image, fresh off the current recon mission:
https://imgur.com/a/32vja#zeQ7Uut

The eye is fully formed now.

[Limey]

Just because it's cool:  The NWS started hanging a doppler radar unit on a chain off the tail of their hurricane hunter aircraft recently.  Here's an image, fresh off the current recon mission:
https://imgur.com/a/32vja#zeQ7Uut

Doppler radar hanging of the back of a hurricane chasing aircraft, or old school Dr. Who intro.  You decide.

[Navin R Johnson]

What constitutes a storm making landfall?  The eye?  Outer bands? 

[das]

What constitutes a storm making landfall?  The eye?  Outer bands?

Center of the eye.  There are countless examples of storms grazing the coast, including the eyewall, but never actually making official landfall.

[Bench]

The latest European model looks insane.  According to Berger in the linked update, it's possible that the Harvey hits the central Texas coast at a high category 3, possible category 4 storm, and then bouncing back and travelling up just past the coast reforming into a tropical storm by the time it hits Louisiana.  And in the meantime I assume it will be dumping a torrential amount of rain on us. 

[jbm]

Das, is coming up the official track pretty much an art when the preferred models diverge, and might it involve a serious debate among the scientists st the NWS?  In other words, if we have competing models and such, who chooses which to weigh more heavily and what sort of criteria goes into that analysis/discussion.

[Phil_in_CS]

Thanks Das.  You are awesome.

Indeed.

Grabbed this image from Dr. Master's blog on weather underground. The track has Harvey passing over a hot spot in the gulf which will drive the intensification. The 4pm NHC forecast says 125mph at landfall.  I spoke to a client earlier today in Victoria just as they were shutting down early to get ready.
http://i.imgur.com/lpyUuia.png

[Fredia]

Bastrop county under ts watch. that is a bit to close to austin for me

[das]

The latest European model looks insane.  According to Berger in the linked update, it's possible that the Harvey hits the central Texas coast at a high category 3, possible category 4 storm, and then bouncing back and travelling up just past the coast reforming into a tropical storm by the time it hits Louisiana.  And in the meantime I assume it will be dumping a torrential amount of rain on us.

 Tonight will be an important period during  the overall intensification process prior to landfall. There is something called a diurnal minimum which represents the largest difference between  available oceanic heat content and the relatively cooler upper levels of the atmosphere during the night time that presents extra opportunity during these rapid intensification periods.  Models are picking up on the small pool of warmer water as well as this diurnal minimum and are showing some pretty explosive intensification.  The range of models, called an ensemble, are now showing between low end Cat3 and Cat4 storms.  This is no guarantee for a catastrophic landfalling major hurricane, though. Once storms get to these extreme levels, they are like a spinning top where the slightest perturbation makes them fall apart or go into an eye wall replacement cycle.  Likewise, as is common for north gulf coast storms, the shallow continental shelf allows for some churning and cooling of the water right before landfall. It is common to lose 20 or 30mph of wind speed as the storm moves ashore which is great since wind speed damage increases exponentially with speed. A 135mph storm is hundreds of times more damaging than a 100mph storm.

 The rain is a real concern. Models continue to show the slowdown and meandering scenario. Most are now predicting 20+ inches of rain for a large swath of the southeast coast and inland from there  and high resolution models are starting to predict small, concentrated areas of 30 to 40 inches in places where there is orographic enhancement or where feeder bands lie stationary for extended periods of time.  Southeast Texas is the number two area in the nation prone to flooding that causes significant loss of property.  Most of you know where these places are. Stay away from them and, if you live in one of those areas, leave now. Do not ignore the mandatory evacuation orders that are firing up right now.

[das]

Das, is coming up the official track pretty much an art when the preferred models diverge, and might it involve a serious debate among the scientists st the NWS?  In other words, if we have competing models and such, who chooses which to weigh more heavily and what sort of criteria goes into that analysis/discussion.

 That is a really good question. And it is also a big part of the problem when it comes to highly socialized information generated and propagated by non-standard sources on the Internet.  It's super easy to post a pretty picture of calamitous rainfall totals from a model but has no context. Because models, for a variety of legitimate reasons, throw out these pictures  on a regular basis, people have become numb to them. Official forecasts take into account a great number of numerical weather prediction outputs and are used  with a variety of other data sources and, most importantly,  forecaster imput and analysis to come up with official forecasts.  That is why it is important to use reputable sources, like the ones I posted at the beginning of this thread, to make important decisions on personal property and personal safety.  There is a vigorous debate amongst forecasters, not only during these events,  but also for generalized weather because the implications  are a matter of life and death and also have huge socio-economic impacts.   The collaborative meetings put together to analyze data and make an official forecast can be very dynamic, loud and heated. But that is because they care so much. 

The criteria for making these decisions spans the gambit including  weather model  verification scores based on long-standing and recent performance, overall impact risks  and things like forecaster seniority and reputation.  Just as with any baseball team where you know the clutch hitters are in various situations, there are clutch forecasters for the various disciplines and that is weighted heavily into the discussion.

[Phil_in_CS]

It's not often you see an "Expected Rainfall" map to have a scale that goes up to 30 inches.   
http://i.imgur.com/Z3Rptq0.png

re: Das's above comment

That is a really good question. And it is also a big part of the problem when it comes to highly socialized information generated and propagated by non-standard sources on the Internet.  It's super easy to post a pretty picture of calamitous rainfall totals from a model but has no context. Because models, for a variety of legitimate reasons, throw out these pictures  on a regular basis, people have become numb to them. Official forecasts take into account a great number of numerical weather prediction outputs and are used  with a variety of other data sources and, most importantly,  forecaster imput and analysis to come up with official forecasts.  That is why it is important to use reputable sources, like the ones I posted at the beginning of this thread, to make important decisions on personal property and personal safety.  There is a vigorous debate amongst forecasters, not only during these events,  but also for generalized weather because the implications  are a matter of life and death and also have huge socio-economic impacts.   The collaborative meetings put together to analyze data and make an official forecast can be very dynamic, loud and heated. But that is because they care so much. 

The criteria for making these decisions spans the gambit including  weather model  verification scores based on long-standing and recent performance, overall impact risks  and things like forecaster seniority and reputation.  Just as with any baseball team where you know the clutch hitters are in various situations, there are clutch forecasters for the various disciplines and that is weighted heavily into the discussion.

Weather Underground and Accuweather are using a different model than the official NHC prediction. The overall effect is the same, but they have the drift to the NE running about 50 miles inland where the NHC has it drifting right along the coastline. That will have a major impact on rain in the inland areas like Austin and CS. Might weaken more quickly too, as on the NHC map more of it is still over the Gulf were the warm waters can feed it.

[Fredia]

watching the Galveston web cams and it is picking up. waves and wind.

[das]

Incredible loop, if anyone is watching.  Time sensitive.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=200&loop_speed_ms=80

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Amazing. What are the "explosions" on the NW side of the eye wall at the end of the loop?

[Phil_in_CS]

Amazing. What are the "explosions" on the NW side of the eye wall at the end of the loop?

Big thunderstorms building upwards over the main clouds

[das]

Big thunderstorms building upwards over the main clouds

Yup.   It's still strengthening.  As if 130mph was not enough...

[das]

Here's another, even more amazing loop.  30 second scans as the sun sets.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev%2Flindsey%2Floops%2F25aug17_band2&image_width=640&image_height=480&loop_speed_ms=40

[jbm]

Thanks for the links.

That late little jog northward helped Corpus.

[Jacksonian]

Rockport high school apparently has been obliterated.  Reports of injuries as well.

[austro]

Rockport high school apparently has been obliterated.  Reports of injuries as well.

Well, that sucks. I have a friend who has a home on the coast at Rockport that she dearly loves. I don't hold out much hope for that.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Bummer. I've spent many weekends in Rockport-Fulton. Best fishing on the coast.

[MusicMan]

Rockport high school apparently has been obliterated.  Reports of injuries as well.

Morning reports are that there was a partial collapse but mostly still standing.


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[austro]

Morning reports are that there was a partial collapse but mostly still standing.

Tough way to start the school year.

[Fredia]

Rockport looked bad.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

As of 12:40 PM no power here at the river shack. Very windy.

[cougar]

Been lucky so far, just a lot of wind and a few heavy storms, but nothing destructive.  Looking at the radar, my neighborhood is sitting in a clear spot right in between two red/yellow bands of storms, so I'm praying Harvey doesn't shift much until it dies out because if we get dumped on, my older, easy to flood neighborhood is in trouble and I'll be trying to figure out the easiest way onto my roof.

[Phil_in_CS]

Harvey came farther inland than they'd thought. Current track has it drifting very slowly north.  Thursday 1pm (farthest out they gave) has the center near Lexington, at 30.5N 97.0W. I've gotten 8" of rain since midnight - 6 straight days of rain like that and I'm going to need an ark.

[HudsonHawk]

Harvey came farther inland than they'd thought. Current track has it drifting very slowly north.  Thursday 1pm (farthest out they gave) has the center near Lexington, at 30.5N 97.0W. I've gotten 8" of rain since midnight - 6 straight days of rain like that and I'm going to need an ark.

Was going to go to the place up near Mexia, but decided not to because I thought it might get bad here.  So far, looks like it might be worse there.

[jbm]

If the predictions are even close to correct, I wonder if most of the major highway/river crossings become impassable.  This would effectively create islands for everything but air and helicopter traffic, if only for a short time.

Luckily, there aren't any dams that I can think of on the lower Guadalupe or Colorado. I suppose the dams north of Houston will be of concern. 

[cougar]

Finally stopped raining for the moment.  I'm starting to get very worried,  Call it a 7 out of 10 on the "shit my pants" scale.  Streets are flooded, back yard water level is creeping up to my back door.

[BudGirl]

This shit is getting real now.  I don't particularly like the thunder and lightening happening with this rain.  And it is real rain now, not the sprinkling from earlier today.

Hope everyone stays safe and dry.

[homer]

Finally stopped raining for the moment.  I'm starting to get very worried,  Call it a 7 out of 10 on the "shit my pants" scale.  Streets are flooded, back yard water level is creeping up to my back door.

Where do you live?

[cougar]

Where do you live?

Near 90 (S. Main) and Fondren.  Looks like the line has finally swept by.  Now the race to drain before the next cell comes through.

[austro]

Are you guys getting much wind in Houston? I'm starting to get tired of it up here. It's not brutal, but it's stiff enough to make me worry about my trees.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Still no power. I've hooked up my internet gateway to an extension cord going out to an inverter plugged into the cigarette lighter in my truck. So I have internet and can power my laptop, and keep phone charged. I had to breakout my Coleman Stove and Lantern. Keeping an eye towards the river.

[austro]

Still no power. I've hooked up my internet gateway to an extension cord going out to an inverter plugged into the cigarette lighter in my truck. So I have internet and can power my laptop, and keep phone charged. I had to breakout my Coleman Stove and Lantern. Keeping an eye towards the river.

How full was/is Canyon Lake? It doesn't look like they're getting all that much rain in the watershed for the upper river, so I'd be surprised if things got so bad that the dam got overtopped or they had to start letting out so much water that you were threatened.

[BudGirl]

Are you guys getting much wind in Houston? I'm starting to get tired of it up here. It's not brutal, but it's stiff enough to make me worry about my trees.

I don't know. I'm distracted but the thunder and lightning.  I don't hear it howling but I also turn the volume up so I don't hear it 

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

How full was/is Canyon Lake? It doesn't look like they're getting all that much rain in the watershed for the upper river, so I'd be surprised if things got so bad that the dam got overtopped or they had to start letting out so much water that you were threatened.

Yeah, I don't expect it to be anything like the 1998 flood that all the old timers around here say was the worst ever. But so far it's rained 5 inches and the river has only risen about that much. I'm going to go down there and get a peek in a few minutes or next beer.

[homer]

Yeah, I don't expect it to be anything like the 1998 flood that all the old timers around here say was the worst ever.

I was camping at Garner State that weekend. Quite an experience.

[austro]

Yeah, I don't expect it to be anything like the 1998 flood that all the old timers around here say was the worst ever. But so far it's rained 5 inches and the river has only risen about that much. I'm going to go down there and get a peek in a few minutes or next beer.

I think that was the one where houses were floating down the river under the I-35 bridge. It was mind-boggling.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

I think that was the one where houses were floating down the river under the I-35 bridge. It was mind-boggling.

Supposedly it got up to the foundation that day. I'm about 35 feet above the river and 250 feet from the bank.

[jbm]

Was that the flood where it kind of happened unexpectedly at night?  I remember it flooding the Guadalupe with virtually no rain in Austin.

[austro]

Was that the flood where it kind of happened unexpectedly at night?  I remember it flooding the Guadalupe with virtually no rain in Austin.

Yeah, I think so. I think it was my daughter's 12th birthday, and it rained up at our house, but it wasn't gruesome or anything. But San Marcos got about 18".

[BudGirl]

Yeah, I think so. I think it was my daughter's 12th birthday, and it rained up at our house, but it wasn't gruesome or anything. But San Marcos got about 18".

I remember that.  The apartments across the street from Sewell park were one floor under water. Crazy.

[homer]

Was that the flood where it kind of happened unexpectedly at night?  I remember it flooding the Guadalupe with virtually no rain in Austin.

Yeah, on a Saturday night. It rained pretty good Friday night, and then it started to come down inches per hour at about 7 or 8 the next night. There is an intersection near the park that had 32 feet of water the next morning.

[BudGirl]

Yeah, on a Saturday night. It rained pretty good Friday night, and then it started to come down inches per hour at about 7 or 8 the next night. There is an intersection near the park that had 32 feet of water the next morning.

Aquarena Springs and Sessions

[cougar]

Here comes the second band...

[homer]

Here comes the second band...

Channel 11 just had a great discussion of the band sitting right on top of you and not moving.

[cougar]

Channel 11 just had a great discussion of the band sitting right on top of you and not moving.

Thanks, I wanted to spend tonight looking out my windows rather than sleeping.

ETA: Took a quick walk outside and surprisingly enough our neighborhood drainage system was up to the task and managed to drain the streets before the second band arrived, so hopefully this band, although wider, doesn't get as intense and is easier to keep up with.

[cougar]

This has been pretty much the longest night of my life, watching the water get closer and closer to my house.  Luckily the houses in the neighborhood are built back on their lots so it's taken a lot, but it's still about two feet from the garage.  I have no second story to climb to, and it's still raining.  If there isn't any draining in the next hour or two, I'm going to have to figure out how to get my pets up on to the roof.  This sucks, but I guess I'm just going to have to keep praying for the best.

[moriartp]

This has been pretty much the longest night of my life, watching the water get closer and closer to my house.  Luckily the houses in the neighborhood are built back on their lots so it's taken a lot, but it's still about two feet from the garage.  I have no second story to climb to, and it's still raining.  If there isn't any draining in the next hour or two, I'm going to have to figure out how to get my pets up on to the roof.  This sucks, but I guess I'm just going to have to keep praying for the best.

Prayers for you and yours. Where in town are you?

[MusicMan]

This has been pretty much the longest night of my life, watching the water get closer and closer to my house.  Luckily the houses in the neighborhood are built back on their lots so it's taken a lot, but it's still about two feet from the garage.  I have no second story to climb to, and it's still raining.  If there isn't any draining in the next hour or two, I'm going to have to figure out how to get my pets up on to the roof.  This sucks, but I guess I'm just going to have to keep praying for the best.

Praying for you.

The only practical advice I have is a suggestion from a friend: if you think the water may come in, remove interior doors and lay them across counters (like a saw horse) to keep more things above water.


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[cougar]

Praying for you.

The only practical advice I have is a suggestion from a friend: if you think the water may come in, remove interior doors and lay them across counters (like a saw horse) to keep more things above water.


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Excellent idea.  Time to pop a few door hinges.  At least I won't have Kate Winslet taking up a whole door by herself.

[Fredia]

as a former long time resident of Houston prayers and understanding
flashbacks of  Alicia , wow before my 32 year was born.

[BudGirl]

Hey honer and Ebby airports are closed.

[Fredia]

Ben Taub evacuated

[homer]

Hey honer and Ebby airports are closed.

They cancelled my flight last night. Rescheduled for Tuesday afternoon. We'll see.

[das]

They cancelled my flight last night. Rescheduled for Tuesday afternoon. We'll see.

Good luck with that...

Some of the precip totals just east of town are unbelievable and this thing is nowhere near finished.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_08/IMG_0531.PNG.3c42ccaf13da7e54266c29c7c8851211.PNG

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Still no power.

[DVauthrin]

Getting a much needed break in Bear Creek near 6 and I-10.  Hopefully the Addicks and Barker Reservoirs don't flood like they did last year.

And the rain has started again.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

This is leaps and bounds beyond Allison.  My in-laws, having flooded three times since 2001 at Stella Link & Braeswood, moved to Bellaire two years ago to escape the flood plain, and now have over a foot of water in their new house.  Trying to figure out how to get them out of there now.

[austro]

This is leaps and bounds beyond Allison.  My in-laws, having flooded three times since 2001 at Stella Link & Braeswood, moved to Bellaire two years ago to escape the flood plain, and now have over a foot of water in their new house.  Trying to figure out how to get them out of there now.

Friends at Buffalo Speedway and Braeswood have 20" in their house and climbing. I think recovery from this is going to take much longer than Ike. Just think how many people have fucked-up vehicles now, for example. How do they get to work?

[Phil_in_CS]

Rain totals so far http://www.weather.gov/images/hgx/graphicast/image7.png

4pm NHC forecast says many areas will get over 20 additional inches of rain, getting storm totals to 50 inches in some places.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0917WPCQPF+gif/212746WPCQPF_sm.gif

[DVauthrin]

Well, water from both the Addicks and Barker Reservoirs are being released, so all the major roads by my house will be impassable.

[jbm]

I find the resilience of the area's populace amazing. Responding as well as possible to a terrible situation. Citizen rescuers, adapting on the fly.  Victims, showing strength.  Officials, doing their function while also enabling citizens in the effort. 

[BudGirl]

I have to say, I'm proud to say I love this city.  This is some crazy shit we are going through but all anyone wants to do is help people.  I'll find a way to help, I'm just going to have to wait until I can get there to do it.

[MusicMan]

Anyone going on national TV and criticizing the city for not evacuating can kiss my ass.


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[BudGirl]

Anyone going on national TV and criticizing the city for not evacuating can kiss my ass.


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I've had a couple people ask me about that.  No I don't think they were wrong.  No one has seen this kind of thing before.  What do you think people could have done?  I hate politics.  That is where that seems to be starting.

[austro]

I've had a couple people ask me about that.  No I don't think they were wrong.  No one has seen this kind of thing before.  What do you think people could have done?  I hate politics.  That is where that seems to be starting.

And anybody who watched the clusterfuck that was the Rita evacuation knows that it's simply impossible to evacuate a city of that size. The evacuation causes as many problems as it solves.

[BudGirl]

And anybody who watched the clusterfuck that was the Rita evacuation knows that it's simply impossible to evacuate a city of that size. The evacuation causes as many problems as it solves.

I was in that big mess.  Took me 14 hours to get to SA.  I don't take evacuating lightly, but I'm not in a rush to go either.
And for these people to say what should have been done, when no one was paying attention before it started need to shut up.  I've had people tell me today they didn't know Houston was going to get bad weather.  Uh, there were a lot of us here in Houston that knew what was coming.  We didn't know it was going to be this bad, but we knew it was going to be bad. 

And now I'm getting rain again.  The releasing of the reservoirs is going to affect so much of Houston that I don't think anyone really knows what to expect. 

[DVauthrin]

We are getting hammered with rain in Bear Creek. 

[Andyzipp]

Not a huge fan of Mayor Turner, but I respect the way he shut down the “evacuation” question during his press conference.

[MRaup]

I posted on Facebook, but I'll also post here. I've got a spare bedroom and several very comfy couches if anyone needs a safe destination. I even might have a few good beers in the fridge.

[chuck]

Anyone going on national TV and criticizing the city for not evacuating can kiss my ass.

Who is saying this?

[homer]

Who is saying this?

ABC national fake news had a whole segment on it. cleverly posed as a question, of course.

[Aussie Astro]

ABC national fake news had a whole segment on it. cleverly posed as a question, of course.

The problem is that they don’t have thousands of fatalities to get animated about.  I am surprised by the very low loss of life, something to be truly thankful for.

Some people have no concept of ‘right time and place for everything’.  The Sydney Morning herald has an article that says Houston, as the world capital of the oil and gas industry, has brought some of the problems on itself.  The article has predictable content, the headline pretty much gives it away.  Even if you believe that is the case it give the impression of reveling in the misfortune of others...  STFU.

I hope y’all stay safe and dry.

[das]

Rain totals so far http://www.weather.gov/images/hgx/graphicast/image7.png

4pm NHC forecast says many areas will get over 20 additional inches of rain, getting storm totals to 50 inches in some places.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0917WPCQPF+gif/212746WPCQPF_sm.gif

Unfortunately, yes. This is just not a meteogram you ever see, especially after 20-30" of rain has fallen.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=hi&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&w10u=0&w12u=1&w13u=1&AheadHour=48&FcstType=graphical&textField1=29.7606&textField2=-95.3697&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=&BackDay.x=49&BackDay.y=2&BackDay=0
Please stay safe, y'all, and heed the advice and directions of your emergency management officials if possible or practical.

[Ebby Calvin]

We took a foot of water in the house but we're safe. I hope everybody stays safe and dry.

[HudsonHawk]

Some people have no concept of ‘right time and place for everything’.  The Sydney Morning herald has an article that says Houston, as the world capital of the oil and gas industry, has brought some of the problems on itself.  The article has predictable content, the headline pretty much gives it away.  Even if you believe that is the case it give the impression of reveling in the misfortune of others...  STFU.

I'm curious as to what they think oil and gas had to do with this storm.  God's wrath for J.D. Rockefeller? 

[mrpink]

I'm curious as to what they think oil and gas had to do with this storm.  God's wrath for J.D. Rockefeller?

Oil and gas causes global warming which increases the severity of storms, blah, blah, blah.  Dicks.

[Phil_in_CS]

I was in that big mess.  Took me 14 hours to get to SA. 

That's exactly the thing outsiders don't get. Maybe 30-50,000 needed to evacuate, but if they were officially told to get out, it would be the bugout boogie and millions would flee causing huge problems across the state. We saw in Rita's evacuation that many that did not need to evacuate did so anyway - my cousin in Sugar Land spent 8 hours on the road and didn't even get to Huntsville before she turned around due to the forecast changing.

The direction this storm was heading, no one could head west to SA. As late as Thursday afternoon it was still projected to be a minimal hurricane. No evacuation order could have been given until Friday morning, and the storm hit late Friday evening. It would have hit millions of people out on the highways.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Day three with no power. I'm thankful that is the most of my problems. I've lost $30 worth of frozen food but have been able to keep everything else on ice. Have internet via power inverter plugged into truck. My thoughts and prayers to those with flooding or worse. I might have to make another beer and ice run into town this afternoon if power is not restored. Hoping it's only a beer run.

[Bench]

And anybody who watched the clusterfuck that was the Rita evacuation knows that it's simply impossible to evacuate a city of that size. The evacuation causes as many problems as it solves.

Putting aside the obvious question of just where the fuck were people supposed to know to go to, a mass evacuation would have caused many more problems than it would have solved.  People would be sitting in traffic unable to move as the weather deteriorated.  All those highways we see underwater would still be underwater but full of cars belonging to dead people or people who are stranded away from shelter.  The places that aren't under water would be blocked by more cars reducing the already limited ability of first responders to get where they need to go.  It would be a catastrophic clusterfuck. 

[Bench]

We took a foot of water in the house but we're safe. I hope everybody stays safe and dry.

That's rough.  I'm sorry man.

[HudsonHawk]

That's exactly the thing outsiders don't get. Maybe 30-50,000 needed to evacuate, but if they were officially told to get out, it would be the bugout boogie and millions would flee causing huge problems across the state. We saw in Rita's evacuation that many that did not need to evacuate did so anyway - my cousin in Sugar Land spent 8 hours on the road and didn't even get to Huntsville before she turned around due to the forecast changing.

The direction this storm was heading, no one could head west to SA. As late as Thursday afternoon it was still projected to be a minimal hurricane. No evacuation order could have been given until Friday morning, and the storm hit late Friday evening. It would have hit millions of people out on the highways.

People are just stupid.  I read one comment where a lady suggested that Houston evacuate to Austin because "they had plenty of hotel rooms".  The flyover country yahoos just have no clue how many people there are in the world. 

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

11 trillion gallons of rain has been dumped on Harris county.

[Limey]

I'm curious as to what they think oil and gas had to do with this storm.  God's wrath for J.D. Rockefeller?

The fact that Harvey accelerated from a TS to a Cat 4 as it made landfall is the sort of unusual behavior that is predicted by climate scientists as a symptom of global warming.  The carnage from Harvey has been exaggerated by many other factors - like urbanization changing drainage characteristics - but it's quite possible that the storm itself would have been lesser without the Gulf waters being so warm. 

[Bench]

We are getting hammered with rain in Bear Creek.

Good luck.  Buffalo Bayou is about to get a bit broader.

[Andyzipp]

As far as I’m concerned, the proof is in the numbers.  Over 100 people died attempting to evacuate from Rita.  So far, “Shelter in place” has resulted in 6 deaths, all attributed to victims driving into high or rising waters.

[Ty in Tampa]

As far as I’m concerned, the proof is in the numbers.  Over 100 people died attempting to evacuate from Rita.  So far, “Shelter in place” has resulted in 6 deaths, all attributed to victims driving into high or rising waters.

That's exactly what I don't get about those bemoaning the lack of an evacuation order.

[jbm]

Putting aside the obvious question of just where the fuck were people supposed to know to go to, a mass evacuation would have caused many more problems than it would have solved.  People would be sitting in traffic unable to move as the weather deteriorated.  All those highways we see underwater would still be underwater but full of cars belonging to dead people or people who are stranded away from shelter.  The places that aren't under water would be blocked by more cars reducing the already limited ability of first responders to get where they need to go.  It would be a catastrophic clusterfuck.

No doubt.  What little criticism I've heard is by a few media folks too stupid and bored to ask appropriate questions.  However, it was encouraging to hear an expert on CNN last night really push back on the criticism, both on the merits of the decision and the extremely bad taste of doing political shit at this moment.  I think most of the criticism started from the fact that Abbott apparently called for an evac and Harris County/City of Houston didn't.

[BudGirl]

I'm seriously over this political bullshit.  I don't give a rats ass if a President, Governor, etc. comes to see the devastation that is Houston.  I will do whatever I can to help people rebuild.  I've been incredibly fortunate with my home.  I think playing Monday morning quarterback when you didn't pay attention to the pre-game planning is wrong on so many levels.  Fuck 'em, fuck'em all.


Ebby, I'm offering what ever help you may need.  Please note, I probably suck at home improvement, but if you want me to take your kids away to play while you get something accomplished just please let me know.
That goes for anyone that may need help.

[HudsonHawk]

I'm seriously over this political bullshit.  I don't give a rats ass if a President, Governor, etc. comes to see the devastation that is Houston.  I will do whatever I can to help people rebuild.  I've been incredibly fortunate with my home.  I think playing Monday morning quarterback when you didn't pay attention to the pre-game planning is wrong on so many levels.  Fuck 'em, fuck'em all.


Ebby, I'm offering what ever help you may need.  Please note, I probably suck at home improvement, but if you want me to take your kids away to play while you get something accomplished just please let me know.
That goes for anyone that may need help.

Outstanding.  You're the kind of people I like to be around.

And I second that.  I have been incredibly fortunate so far.  I cannot go anywhere today, but when the time comes, I will gladly help anyone in any way I can.  I'm ok at home improvement stuff, and I have a hammer and a screwdriver, so according to my wife, I should be able to build a cathedral. 

[BudGirl]

Outstanding.  You're the kind of people I like to be around.

And I second that.  I have been incredibly fortunate so far.  I cannot go anywhere today, but when the time comes, I will gladly help anyone in any way I can.  I'm ok at home improvement stuff, and I have a hammer and a screwdriver, so according to my wife, I should be able to build a cathedral. 

I also bake really well!

[Limey]

For those who need it, the Montrose H-E-B is open today. 

[HudsonHawk]

I also bake really well!

I've had your peanut butter cookies.  They were excellent. 

IIRC, Astrojo also baked some cookies for one of the softball games that were pretty good. 

[Phil_in_CS]

People are just stupid.  I read one comment where a lady suggested that Houston evacuate to Austin because "they had plenty of hotel rooms".  The flyover country yahoos just have no clue how many people there are in the world.

Dallas was making a big deal about setting up a convention center to sleep 5000. A friend was telling me that's what was needed. I told him they'd need 1300 of those to take the population of metro Houston.  People don't get the scale of how big the place is.

Thankfully the 7am and 11am tracks keep pushing farther east. Sucks if you're in Beaumont or Orange, but better for the people who've already been flooded.

[DVauthrin]

Good luck.  Buffalo Bayou is about to get a bit broader.

Thanks.  The big concern with the release of the Addicks reservoir is that 6, clay, and eldridge parkway will all be impassable for a long time.  So far, our house hasn't flooded.

[hostros7]

And I second that.  I have been incredibly fortunate so far.  I cannot go anywhere today, but when the time comes, I will gladly help anyone in any way I can.  I'm ok at home improvement stuff, and I have a hammer and a screwdriver, so according to my wife, I should be able to build a cathedral.

I am also willing to lend any help that I can to those who need it in the aftermath of this storm. The need for services and support is going to greatly outstrip the ability of the traditional service providers, contractors, etc. to provide it on a reasonable timeline. it's going to take the community pulling together to help out friends and neighbors. Full disclosure though, my wife knows enough not to expect a cathedral.


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[HudsonHawk]

I am also willing to lend any help that I can to those who need it in the aftermath of this storm. The need for services and support is going to greatly outstrip the ability of the traditional service providers, contractors, etc. to provide it on a reasonable timeline. it's going to take the community pulling together to help out friends and neighbors. Full disclosure though, my wife knows enough not to expect a cathedral.


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To clarify...my wife doesn't expect a cathedral from the hammer and screwdriver, she just doesn't understand why anyone would ever need more tools than that. 

[BudGirl]

I think an OWA building party could be fun. 

[HudsonHawk]

I think an OWA building party could be fun.

Like an Amish barn raising. 

[BudGirl]

Like an Amish barn raising. 

With beer.

[Knoxbanedoodle]

Like an Amish barn raising.

"Curses, Jedediah! I have slipped in thine frito pie!"

In all seriousness, y'all are inspiring. Best of luck to you folks.

[Limey]

Heads up to all those who have sustained damage:  make your insurance claim as soon as you're in a safe, dry space.  It's always a good idea anyway and it puts your insurer on the clock.  You do not have to substantiate your claim with claim amounts or even photos, so do not be fobbed off if they tell you otherwise. 

The side issue is that TX HB1774 relaxes the penalties on insurers for slow-walking claims, and it takes effect for claims filed after 9/1/17. For example, right now they have to pay penalty interest of 18% if they are slow in paying - which is more than enough to cover most credit card interest rates.  The bill drops that number to 10%.   There are other barriers to legal action too. 

Get your claim started  as soon as you can, but before Friday if at all humanly possible.  While insurers tend to be more pragmatic in situations like this (because they are off their own dime and into the pockets of their reinsurers), they will likely be overwhelmed by claims.  You want to preserve that 18% penalty rate just in case you get lost in the rush. 

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Like an Amish barn raising.

Come Together (Build a Barn)

[das]

More and more locations to the east and NE of Houston maxing out the digital storm total accumulation scale of 51.0"
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_08/IMG_2632.PNG.775c19f1d5041ba14f97834a3fe53611.PNG

[NeilT]

Sounds like everyone is safe, and so far dry.  If anyone needs someplace to stay, we have room. 

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

My unfurnished place in Austin is available if anyone needs a place to stay. Also have 2 spare bedrooms here at the river.

[Mr. Happy]

I am praying for all those affected by the storm and am proud of all of you who have offered assistance.

[Gizzmonic]

Hope everyone is OK. My parents, sister, nephews, etc had to evacuate Sugar Land. They still don't know if their houses flooded.  The number of highwater locations seems to be going down ( https://traffic.houstontranstar.org/roadclosures/#highwater ) ...so, progress?

[Limey]

FYI, to anyone who is, or knows someone who is, flooded out and in need of accommodation, (my wife) Ronda’s company – Nan & Properties – has been canvassing and cataloguing available rentals and apartments all over the greater Houston area.  They can help find short, medium or long terms leases and have in many cases negotiated the waiver of application fees, pet fees and even security deposits.  This service is free to the renter, so let Ronda and her team take on this task!

Call her at (713) 557-1936 or email her at [email protected].

Feel free to share this with anyone who needs help.

[Phil_in_CS]

Hope everyone is OK. My parents, sister, nephews, etc had to evacuate Sugar Land. They still don't know if their houses flooded.  The number of highwater locations seems to be going down ( https://traffic.houstontranstar.org/roadclosures/#highwater ) ...so, progress?

In Houston for sure. I grew up in Orange and my FB feed is full of people I grew up with getting flooded out today. 

All the rain we got here in Brazos County this weekend is doing some major flooding down to the coast today. At least the rains have stopped outside of today's rains in far SE Texas.

[das]

In Houston for sure. I grew up in Orange and my FB feed is full of people I grew up with getting flooded out today. 

All the rain we got here in Brazos County this weekend is doing some major flooding down to the coast today. At least the rains have stopped outside of today's rains in far SE Texas.

Anyone hear from Cougar?

[cougar]

Anyone hear from Cougar?

Sorry, been trying to get caught up with things and catching up on sleep.  My house, surprisingly enough, never did flood despite a couple of close calls.  I'm pretty sure there's a couple of leaks in my roof though.  Got some water damage to some ceiling sheetrock and my fireplace/chimney.  Not going to complain though, since I'm a helluva lot better off than thousands of others around the area.  When my biggest issue is waiting for my home insurance carrier to answer my call, I'm counting myself lucky.

[das]

Sorry, been trying to get caught up with things and catching up on sleep.  My house, surprisingly enough, never did flood despite a couple of close calls.  I'm pretty sure there's a couple of leaks in my roof though.  Got some water damage to some ceiling sheetrock and my fireplace/chimney.  Not going to complain though, since I'm a helluva lot better off than thousands of others around the area.  When my biggest issue is waiting for my home insurance carrier to answer my call, I'm counting myself lucky.

+1

Glad everything is ok with you.

[OregonStrosFan]

Couldn't be more heartbroken or proud of the Houston area this past week. Pulling for and praying for y'all!

[georgiasamba]

A big thank you to whoever posted the link to spacecityweather.com.  I was following the events from Austin. The "No Hype" information was fantastic and helpful for me to process the situation and not just panic about it.

Now, I must drive my mother back to her house in Cypress....... if I can find gas.  Austin gas shortage: a self-fulfilling prophecy as everyone races to fill up before it's gone. Lines out to the street at the Costco on 183 last night.

[HudsonHawk]

I will be headed back to Houston tomorrow with a load of supplies.  I would be honored to bring anything anyone needs...food, water, toiletries, cleaning supplies, etc.  Please let me know and I will get anything I can. 

[Dark Star]

For those of you in Texas, please keep an eye on Harvey.  Two main concerns:  1) as the storm approaches the coast, the steering currents that move a storm around will collapse so, once the storm moves inland, it could sit-and-spin or meander around for multiple days.  This is a classic signature for a significant flooding event in your area.  And, 2) the storm has been in hostile development environments for it's entire lifecycle so far.  That is about to change and, for the next 36-48 hours, the storm has the potential to rapidly intensify.  Waters are warm, upper level outflow is significantly improving and the forward motion is perfect to negate upwelling.  The current forecast pegs the storm at 80-ish mph at landfall but, rapid intensification cycles are the least understood period of development for tropical systems.  Forecasters are getting good at seeing the conditions for RI development but why one storm responds and another does not is still unknown as is the amount of intensification during the RI phase.  So, this one bears watching.

Hit me with questions throughout the day if you have them...

This prediction, made early, was essentially 100% correct. Thank you, Das.

I am sorry I missed all this. I am very sorry, and sympathetic, for everyone who got flooded out.

I know the Houston area (not to mention Rockport, Port Aransas, and environs) got it really bad. We didn't get that much wind here (Beaumont area), but a hell of a lot of rain, it seemed like. Roughly 46" between last Monday and Wedenesday, according to the NOAA. That is a lot of rain, even for here. To put it another way, our average annual rainfall is just over 60". We got 2/3 of that in 2+ days.

A lot of people's homes were inundated and worse, especially just north and east of town, as well as many in the city proper. I am grateful to say we stayed high and dry. We never lost power. In fact, until the city's water supply failed last Thursday morning, we personally had very little discomfort. Running up the flooded street to the 7-11 for more beer was a little more difficult than usual, but that is about it. We were very fortunate.

Don't know when/if I will be back around. Just wanted to say hello, and that I am glad it seems most of us made it through Harvey relatively unscathed.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

This prediction, made early, was essentially 100% correct. Thank you, Das.

I am sorry I missed all this. I am very sorry, and sympathetic, for everyone who got flooded out.

I know the Houston area (not to mention Rockport, Port Aransas, and environs) got it really bad. We didn't get that much wind here (Beaumont area), but a hell of a lot of rain, it seemed like. Roughly 46" between last Monday and Wedenesday, according to the NOAA. That is a lot of rain, even for here. To put it another way, our average annual rainfall is just over 60". We got 2/3 of that in 2+ days.

A lot of people's homes were inundated and worse, especially just north and east of town, as well as many in the city proper. I am grateful to say we stayed high and dry. We never lost power. In fact, until the city's water supply failed last Thursday morning, we personally had very little discomfort. Running up the flooded street to the 7-11 for more beer was a little more difficult than usual, but that is about it. We were very fortunate.

Don't know when/if I will be back around. Just wanted to say hello, and that I am glad it seems most of us made it through Harvey relatively unscathed.

Happy to hear you made it through unscathed. Don't be a stranger.

[Limey]

Don't know when/if I will be back around. Just wanted to say hello, and that I am glad it seems most of us made it through Harvey relatively unscathed.

Glad to hear you came you were ok.  Those of us in Houston lucky enough to have a dry floor and power did also get to see what was happening along I-10, and it didn't look good.

[chuck]

Irma is obviously a monster and if it somehow gives Florida a pass we will all be grateful.

But if a hurricane named Jose happens to strike Palm Beach directly I am announcing right now that I will donate one million dollars to the relief efforts.

[jbm]

Nice to hear about those without property damage, especially in the Beaumont area.  From news reports, I was under the impression that everyone there was swamped. 

[Limey]

Irma is obviously a monster and if it somehow gives Florida a pass we will all be grateful.

But if a hurricane named Jose happens to strike Palm Beach directly I am announcing right now that I will donate one million dollars to the relief efforts.

Irma reported has trashed his mansion on St Martin.  Given that he had it up for sale, and had dropped the price significantly, this may actually turn out to be a win if he can collect on the insurance.  Money goes to money.

[HudsonHawk]

Irma is obviously a monster and if it somehow gives Florida a pass we will all be grateful.

But if a hurricane named Jose happens to strike Palm Beach directly I am announcing right now that I will donate one million dollars to the relief efforts.

Through your foundation..."The Human Fund". 

[chuck]

Through your foundation..."The Human Fund".

Wait a minute, I need to check my books. Sometime in the last quarter I think we donated six dollars to the SPCA. Maybe it was the YMCA. Hell, I don't know, what am I, a details guy already?

[chuck]

Irma reported has trashed his mansion on St Martin.  Given that he had it up for sale, and had dropped the price significantly, this may actually turn out to be a win if he can collect on the insurance.  Money goes to money.

Someone prominent in Siberian nickel mining will buy it for $400 million. Don't worry, he was going to tear it down anyway.

[BudGirl]

Wait a minute, I need to check my books. Sometime in the last quarter I think we donated six dollars to the SPCA. Maybe it was the YMCA. Hell, I don't know, what am I, a details guy already?

Aren't you being audited?

[Bench]

Eric Berger predicted a 5-1 Astros victory the afternoon before Game 7.  He then explained that the number is derived from Harvey's 51 inches of rain.