Author Topic: 13 Game Stretch  (Read 4009 times)

das

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13 Game Stretch
« on: September 06, 2016, 09:17:17 am »
I was doing some thinking about this current stretch against first place teams, wondering what should be considered success. I'd guess 6-7 or 7-6 or greater leading up to the last couple of weeks' play against sub-.500 teams.  What say 'ye?

I have to admit, Keuchel going on the shelf probably changes that calculus a bit.
Another trenchant comment by a jealous lesser intellect.

jbm

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2016, 09:30:34 am »
Well, my view of success is not clouded by Keuchel; it's still based on what it will likely take to get a wildcard spot.  So, 7-6. 

Probably going to have to outslug a few teams and get good contributions from the pen.  Last night was a good start in that regard, Sipp, Feliz and Gustave coming up big. 

juliogotay

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2016, 10:14:35 am »
somewhere around .500 would better than expected w/o top two starting pitchers.

AstroNut

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2016, 11:55:03 am »
9-4 to make playoffs
Playoffs...Did you say playoffs !

MusicMan

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2016, 12:10:37 pm »
I was doing some thinking about this current stretch against first place teams, wondering what should be considered success. I'd guess 6-7 or 7-6 or greater leading up to the last couple of weeks' play against sub-.500 teams.  What say 'ye?

I have to admit, Keuchel going on the shelf probably changes that calculus a bit.

Staying within 2 games of the WC is a success.  That will probably require 8-5.
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AstroFrog

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2016, 12:51:58 pm »
I can't get past the Tigers having 10 left with the Twins (7) and Braves (3).

That seems like 8-2 at worst/

How the wild cards don't go to the Tigers and the AL East survivor is beyond me.  Add in our pitching injuries and it seems pretty well effed.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2016, 12:59:40 pm by AstroFrog »
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drew corleone

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2016, 01:13:06 pm »
The Red Sox are in the first WC position right now 76-61 (.555 win %). Assuming they finish the year at that percentage they'll win 90 games. Baltimore and Detroit are both 75-62 (.547), pacing to 89 wins.

In the four years since adding the second wild card it has required 93, 92, 88 ans 86 wins.

If I am doing the math correctly, then...

9-4 puts them at 80 wins
8-5 puts them at 79 wins
7-6 puts them at 78 wins
6-7 puts them at 77 wins

I'll ignore 5-8 or worse because I think any such scenario leaves them dead in the water.

The final 16 all come against division foes

7 v. LAA (4H/3A; 11-1 in 2016)
6 v SEA (3 H/3A; 8-5 in 2016)
3 v. OAK (3A; 10-6 in 2016)

So to get to 90 wins, which seems like it should result in a playoff spot, they'll need...

10-6 if starting at 80 wins
11-5 if starting at 79 wins
12-4 if starting at 78 wins
13-3 if starting at 77 wins

The first two of those four feel very "doable." The last two do not feel impossible.

Obviously with the pitching woes going .500+ on the current swing is a tall order, but Baltimore has their own pitching woes, as well as 7 v BOS, and 3 each against TOR and DET. Outside of the 7 v BAL, Boston has 6 v TOR and 7 v NYY, who I don't suspect are going to roll over for their biggest rival. The Tigers have 3 v BAL, 7 v CLE, and 3 v KC (but also 7 v MIN). I really don't see two teams running away from the pack over the next few weeks, so if the Astros can get even serviceable pitching and keep the bats going they have a shot.

HudsonHawk

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #7 on: September 06, 2016, 07:04:18 pm »

If I am doing the math correctly, then...

9-4 puts them at 80 wins
8-5 puts them at 79 wins
7-6 puts them at 78 wins
6-7 puts them at 77 wins

Correct me if I'm wrong, but...the Astros are currently 73-64.  9 more wins would put them at 82 wins, no?
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jbm

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #8 on: September 06, 2016, 07:07:29 pm »
Correct me if I'm wrong, but...the Astros are currently 73-64.  9 more wins would put them at 82 wins, no?
They've already won two in the stretch.

HudsonHawk

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #9 on: September 06, 2016, 07:39:02 pm »
They've already won two in the stretch.

Ah...got it. 
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

drew corleone

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #10 on: September 06, 2016, 09:21:12 pm »
Yeah. BTW... Everyone that had Houston bearing the Tribe with Peacock starting against Kluber, raise your hand.

toddthebod

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #11 on: September 06, 2016, 10:31:00 pm »
I can't help it, but every time I hear Peacock's name, I think of the old George Carlin joke about what do you call a female peacock.  Peacock sucks.  I don't know why Devo isn't starting. 
Boom!

juliogotay

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #12 on: September 07, 2016, 06:44:36 am »
I can't help it, but every time I hear Peacock's name, I think of the old George Carlin joke about what do you call a female peacock.  Peacock sucks.  I don't know why Devo isn't starting.

I think your answer on Devo is evident the last week. He is so valuable from the pen. And maybe his stuff doesn't play up so well after hitters have more than two ABs against him?

jbm

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #13 on: September 07, 2016, 07:47:14 am »
It's also a strange moment to trash Peacock.  He did a good job last night. 

Waldo

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #14 on: September 07, 2016, 07:54:27 am »
I don't know why Devo isn't starting.

Hinch said he is staying in the pen because he has excelled there, and can impact more games than he would in the rotation.

Knoxbanedoodle

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #15 on: September 07, 2016, 08:16:30 am »
Did Carlin say "peac**t"? 'Cause I thought that was an original from an acquaintance of mine who happens to be an inveterate joke-thief. So, that wouldn't be a bird of a different color, as it were.

Incidentally, Peacock drives me insane, but I'm glad they're giving him another chance here in the most critical time of a potentially not-lost season. It speaks to a patience and an optimism one doesn't often find abundantly in the universe. If he can keep contributing to wins this month, his whole tenure with the Houston ballclub would have been worth it.

MusicMan

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #16 on: September 07, 2016, 08:40:14 am »
Hinch said he is staying in the pen because he has excelled there, and can impact more games than he would in the rotation.

Hinch is absolutely correct.  After Altuve, Devo may be this team's MVP.
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das

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #17 on: September 07, 2016, 09:53:13 am »
Hinch is absolutely correct.  After Altuve, Devo may be this team's MVP.

No kidding.  He's nearing 100 IP and his ERA for his non-starts (36 of his 41 appearances) is in the 1.60 range.  He's been consistently very good.  More importantly and non-stat based, he's either come in and stopped the bleeding when starters have faltered or held the line in close games again and again. 

I don't know what I am more excited about; it's been great to see his slider really develop over the last couple of months but his changeup is just out of this world.  Looks just like the fastball until it flutters and dies right in front of the plate.
Another trenchant comment by a jealous lesser intellect.

pots

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #18 on: September 07, 2016, 10:05:08 am »
No kidding.  He's nearing 100 IP and his ERA for his non-starts (36 of his 41 appearances) is in the 1.60 range.  He's been consistently very good.  More importantly and non-stat based, he's either come in and stopped the bleeding when starters have faltered or held the line in close games again and again. 

I don't know what I am more excited about; it's been great to see his slider really develop over the last couple of months but his changeup is just out of this world.  Looks just like the fastball until it flutters and dies right in front of the plate.

And to think any team could of had him for a mere 50k.  Not promoting him to AAA last year turned out to be pure genius.  Kept him below the radar. 

jbm

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #19 on: September 07, 2016, 10:29:40 am »
I think you're giving them a little too much credit.  He's been great, but I suspect his success surprised them as much as it did other teams.  I also suspect his success is a result of blossoming as a reliever, which is not unusual but hard to predict.

VirtualBob

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #20 on: September 07, 2016, 03:40:09 pm »
/snip/
 I also suspect his success is a result of blossoming as a reliever, which is not unusual but hard to predict.
... which may help explain how often cast-off relievers find a new home via the waiver wire.
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drew corleone

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #21 on: September 07, 2016, 04:21:14 pm »
Correa out till at least Friday... flew back to Houston to have shoulder inflammation evaluated.

Fuuuuuuuuck.

Navin R Johnson

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #22 on: September 07, 2016, 04:58:16 pm »
All of the good luck with injuries the Astros had to start the season has caught up.  Correa, McCullers, Keuchel, Valbuena, Rasmus, etc...
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JimR

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #23 on: September 07, 2016, 09:50:24 pm »
All of the good luck with injuries the Astros had to start the season has caught up.  Correa, McCullers, Keuchel, Valbuena, Rasmus, etc...

Winnable game tonight we let get away.
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Navin R Johnson

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #24 on: September 07, 2016, 10:20:14 pm »
Yep, that one stings.  Still have a chance for 3/4 tomorrow.
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MrKnuckleball

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #25 on: September 08, 2016, 03:54:20 pm »
Gotta do some damage at home in the next few games, hopefully Correa will be back.

juliogotay

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #26 on: September 09, 2016, 03:54:22 pm »
It has been nine games since an Astros starter made it to the 6th. Coincides with the expanded roster date.

das

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Re: 13 Game Stretch
« Reply #27 on: September 09, 2016, 05:31:35 pm »
It has been nine games since an Astros starter made it to the 6th. Coincides with the expanded roster date.

And 17 games without their top two starters.  Down your #1 and #2 starters is a tough way to push into the playoffs.  They've done an admirable job holding position.
Another trenchant comment by a jealous lesser intellect.