Author Topic: Mid-season prospect rankings  (Read 5973 times)

MusicMan

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Mid-season prospect rankings
« on: July 07, 2016, 10:03:45 am »
BP's updated top 50 looks good:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29756#190175

4. Alex Bregman
33. Francis Martes
40. Kyle Tucker

Behind the paywall, Joe Musgrove was one of ten honorable mentions.
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Nate Colbert

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #1 on: July 08, 2016, 11:09:40 am »
BP's updated top 50 looks good:

And the BA Top 100 looks even better:

8. Bregman
29. Martes
32. Musgrove
35. K. Tucker
47. Paulino
94. Fisher

Link

Nate Colbert

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #2 on: July 08, 2016, 05:51:11 pm »
And the BA Top 100 looks even better:

8. Bregman
29. Martes
32. Musgrove
35. K. Tucker
47. Paulino
94. Fisher

Link


Would have been seven (see the chat):

Quote
Joe (Texas): Was AJ Reed not eligible or did he fall off the top 100? If he was eligible, where would he have been?

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Not eligible because he was in the majors by our deadline. He’d have ranked top 10 for sure.

And just to refresh memories, here's the BA rankings at the beginning of the year:

11. Reed
20. Martes
42. Bregman
61. Tucker
74. Cameron
84. Musgrove
91. Paulino

Lefty

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2016, 06:40:34 pm »
And the BA Top 100 looks even better

Fangraphs did one where they incorporate their statistical projections and the BA rankings.  Some intriguing results Stros get 10 of the top 100:

Alex Bregman 1
Joe Musgrove 26
Kyle Tucker 46
AJ Reed 47
Derek Fisher 51
David Paulino 64
Garrett Stubbs 72
Francis Martes 87
Andrew Aplin 88
Tony Kemp 97

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-improved-katoh-top-100-list/
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juliogotay

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2016, 07:00:19 pm »
Fangraphs did one where they incorporate their statistical projections and the BA rankings.  Some intriguing results Stros get 10 of the top 100:

Alex Bregman 1
Joe Musgrove 26
Kyle Tucker 46
AJ Reed 47
Derek Fisher 51
David Paulino 64
Garrett Stubbs 72
Francis Martes 87
Andrew Aplin 88
Tony Kemp 97

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-improved-katoh-top-100-list/

Applin?

Lefty

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2016, 07:07:45 pm »
Applin?

Yeah, they must really love his defense or something.
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jbm

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2016, 07:11:53 pm »
Hernandez should be #2 or #3 on the list, and he ain't even there. Lists, not good for much.

moriartp

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2016, 07:40:33 pm »
KATOH is a reeeeeally rudimentary projection system. Don't read too much into it one way or the other.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2016, 12:56:27 am »
So MLB.com out with its mid-season Top 100 list:

1. Bregman
38. Reed
41. Martes
63. K. Tucker
85. Whitley (this year's 1st rounder for those who really, really haven't been paying attention)
86. Paulino
87. Musgrove

No Derek Fisher on that list.

Exes: Hader (#45), Phillips (#78), Aiken (#79)

With 7 Top 100 prospects, the Astros had more players on the list than any other organization.

MLB.com's list at the beginning of the year:

22. Bregman
40. Reed
41. Martes
74. K. Tucker
75. Cameron
« Last Edit: July 28, 2016, 01:02:13 am by Nate Colbert »

Nate Colbert

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2016, 11:22:20 pm »
So MLB.com out with its mid-season Top 100 list:

1. Bregman
38. Reed
41. Martes
63. K. Tucker
85. Whitley (this year's 1st rounder for those who really, really haven't been paying attention)
86. Paulino
87. Musgrove

No Derek Fisher on that list.

Now there is: Fisher pops in at #99.

(Yes, the newly-updated list is already being updated--insertions occur as other players "graduate" due to loss of rookie status.)

chuck

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2016, 11:29:05 pm »
Imagine how high Bregman might be ranked if he could hit.
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pots

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2016, 09:16:13 am »
I get that some prospects will just never be able to hit major league pitching, but this is getting ridiculous.   You have guys just killing it at AAA and can't buy a hit in the majors.  Reed has hit 447 for the 10 games he's been back at AAA.    Between this and the veterans hitting prolonged slumps, I don't know how David Hudgens/Alonzo Powell are still employed.  If they had no hitting coach at all could the results be any worse?

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2016, 09:31:38 am »
Wait, really? Fire the major league hitting coaches because they players they've worked with the *least* don't hit immediately during their first weeks facing MLB pitching?

pots

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2016, 09:44:45 am »
Wait, really? Fire the major league hitting coaches because they players they've worked with the *least* don't hit immediately during their first weeks facing MLB pitching?

Not just the young guys not hitting.  You have veterans that struggle for long periods of time. 

And even with the young guys, there is plenty of film available from AAA to try and see what they are doing differently.  Not to mention the mental side of things.     

Maybe I've just not caught it, but when is the last time you heard, "yeah Hudgens really helped me out"?  I've just never seen anything like this.   This many prospects doing this poorly when getting called up?  Normally they get called up, crush it, then pitchers adjust and they struggle for a while.  They come in the door unable to do anything.  Just seems real odd,


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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2016, 09:45:16 am »
Wait, really? Fire the major league hitting coaches because they players they've worked with the *least* don't hit immediately during their first weeks facing MLB pitching?

If they do that it'd have to be because despite being second in the league in walks, they are first in strike outs and second to last in batting average.
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homer

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2016, 09:48:46 am »
The ridiculous plate approach of swing out of your shoes at anything, in any count, has nothing to with Hudgens. He's carrying out his assignment exactly as directed by Ground Control.
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pots

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2016, 10:21:03 am »
The ridiculous plate approach of swing out of your shoes at anything, in any count, has nothing to with Hudgens. He's carrying out his assignment exactly as directed by Ground Control.

Totally understand that some guys cannot be helped. But something isn't adding up.  How does Reed go from hitting 156 in the majors to immediately 447 at AAA.  Bregman who was crushing at 2 levels and starts 1 for 28.  Worth who was crushing at AAA bats 179.  White who kills it at AAA soon to fall below 200.  Tucker who was killing it at AAA holds a 167 avg.  Moran managed all of 2 hits in 19 ABs.  Kemp did okay but not great.  Literally no one who has been called up this year has worked out.  Unless you want to call Marisnick a call up, but in his case he didn't hit for anything in AAA so there wasn't any fall off there.  Marisnick is probably the best case for someone to hang their hat on I guess.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2016, 10:23:39 am by pots »

jbm

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #17 on: August 02, 2016, 10:41:45 am »
Maybe the major leagues are harder than AAA. 

roadrunner

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #18 on: August 02, 2016, 10:46:15 am »
I wonder if there are any other examples of AAA guys not being able to hit major league pitching.

pots

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #19 on: August 02, 2016, 10:53:28 am »
Maybe the major leagues are harder than AAA.

When is the last time you've seen that many flops in a row?

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #20 on: August 02, 2016, 11:06:53 am »
When is the last time you've seen that many flops in a row?
I view it simply as a succession of low probability events.  Say, each player has a 25% chance of succeeding out of the chute, then is a succession of events like this really so unusual? 

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #21 on: August 02, 2016, 11:09:28 am »
I view it simply as a succession of low probability events.  Say, each player has a 25% chance of succeeding out of the chute, then is a succession of events like this really so unusual? 

So the #1 ranked prospect, for whatever its worth, has exactly the same shot as the #100 prospect? This is not just 'some guy' with a normal chance, he's supposedly the best.
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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #22 on: August 02, 2016, 11:14:50 am »
Totally understand that some guys cannot be helped. But something isn't adding up.  How does Reed go from hitting 156 in the majors to immediately 447 at AAA.  Bregman who was crushing at 2 levels and starts 1 for 28.  Worth who was crushing at AAA bats 179.  White who kills it at AAA soon to fall below 200.  Tucker who was killing it at AAA holds a 167 avg.  Moran managed all of 2 hits in 19 ABs.  Kemp did okay but not great.  Literally no one who has been called up this year has worked out.  Unless you want to call Marisnick a call up, but in his case he didn't hit for anything in AAA so there wasn't any fall off there.  Marisnick is probably the best case for someone to hang their hat on I guess.

Only speaking regarding Bregman, but I believe he is different than the others.  His K rate (prior to last night) was quite low.  I have read that he has gotten zero hits out of balls in play that recorded 95+mph; the average on balls in play at that speed is over .500.  From the scout statements I've read he's where he should be and that he isn't over matched or just sucks.  In essence he needs to quit hitting at-em balls.
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moriartp

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #23 on: August 02, 2016, 11:26:06 am »
Only speaking regarding Bregman, but I believe he is different than the others.  His K rate (prior to last night) was quite low.  I have read that he has gotten zero hits out of balls in play that recorded 95+mph; the average on balls in play at that speed is over .500.  From the scout statements I've read he's where he should be and that he isn't over matched or just sucks.  In essence he needs to quit hitting at-em balls.

Bingo. Current BABIP of .050 overall for Bregman. His numbers will improve.

I get that it's a pennant race, but there is altogether too much bed-wetting about these guys' first taste of MLB pitching.

GreatBagwellsBeard

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #24 on: August 02, 2016, 11:26:18 am »
When is the last time you've seen that many flops in a row?

Brazil in the World Cup?
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jbm

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #25 on: August 02, 2016, 11:44:24 am »
So the #1 ranked prospect, for whatever its worth, has exactly the same shot as the #100 prospect? This is not just 'some guy' with a normal chance, he's supposedly the best.

I agree with what you are saying; I was just trying to keep it simple.  But, even Bregman, a deserving top five prospect IMO, is less than 50% to be what he will eventually be out of the gate.  Just my opinion.

pots

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #26 on: August 02, 2016, 12:19:20 pm »
Perhaps this is just as you've said a combination of expected flops/bad luck. The next call up is definitely due then.

Combined numbers from the callups so far this year:
214 ABs
150/195/243
18 runs, 12 RBI, 63 Ks, 20 BBs

That's a 438 OPS.  214 is not a tremendous amount of ABs.  Not included is Jake's numbers.  He just was not in AAA long enough (7 games) to matter.  It's not like he figured anything out down there. 



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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #27 on: August 02, 2016, 12:47:47 pm »
Just to be fair, can we look at Correa's rookie campaign as part of the conversation?  I know that was last year, but it has to be relevant.  Plus, I'm pretty happy that they finally got Altuve to be more selective with his swings; that seems to have turned out well for the slugger.   

roadrunner

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #28 on: August 02, 2016, 12:48:59 pm »
Only speaking regarding Bregman, but I believe he is different than the others.  His K rate (prior to last night) was quite low.  I have read that he has gotten zero hits out of balls in play that recorded 95+mph; the average on balls in play at that speed is over .500.  From the scout statements I've read he's where he should be and that he isn't over matched or just sucks.  In essence he needs to quit hitting at-em balls.

Bregman has quality at-bats and even his foul balls are well hit.  Not concerned about him at all.

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #29 on: August 10, 2016, 08:53:21 am »
most of you guys are too young to remember (or perhaps even to be born) when the Astros called up Cedeno. patience with talent, folks. the majors ain't easy.
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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #30 on: August 10, 2016, 12:31:36 pm »
most of you guys are too young to remember (or perhaps even to be born) when the Astros called up Cedeno. patience with talent, folks. the majors ain't easy.

I was about 16 then. Did he struggle coming out of the gate? I don't remember that. I am not worried in the least about Bregman. He's a player and will be fine. I hope they find a different spot for Gurriel because I love the left side of the infield with the current pair. Not  to mention Valbuena returning.

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #31 on: August 10, 2016, 04:14:06 pm »
After getting two hits in his first game, CC went 2 for his next 24.  After seven games he was hitting .138.  He ended the season hitting .310.
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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #32 on: August 11, 2016, 09:00:54 am »
I was about 16 then. Did he struggle coming out of the gate? I don't remember that. I am not worried in the least about Bregman. He's a player and will be fine. I hope they find a different spot for Gurriel because I love the left side of the infield with the current pair. Not  to mention Valbuena returning.

he was terrible. I remember telling my then-wife the Astros ruined him by bringing him up too soon.
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pots

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #33 on: August 11, 2016, 09:26:48 am »
It's not unheard of to have call ups struggle out the gate.  It's also not unheard of to have callups come flying out of the gate.   The ridiculousness was that they were all struggling.  And not just mildly struggling.   There is no question of the talent these guys have.  Most of them will figure it out to some extent.  Certainly a player with as much talent as Bregman has will almost certainly figure it out.  I really didn't see anyone on this site saying he wasn't going to come around.  The question was when.  The impatience was directly do to the season collapsing.  Valbuena, Rasmus and Marwin's injuries could not have come at a worse time.  The injuries, rookies just flailing, and Luhnow letting it ride really was a tough pill to swallow given it likely meant an end to a promising season.  They went from a good bet to make the playoffs to a good bet to not make the playoffs in 2 weeks in the middle of the summer. 

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Re: Mid-season prospect rankings
« Reply #34 on: August 12, 2016, 08:31:41 am »
Totally understand that some guys cannot be helped. But something isn't adding up.  How does Reed go from hitting 156 in the majors to immediately 447 at AAA.  Bregman who was crushing at 2 levels and starts 1 for 28.  Worth who was crushing at AAA bats 179.  White who kills it at AAA soon to fall below 200.  Tucker who was killing it at AAA holds a 167 avg.  Moran managed all of 2 hits in 19 ABs.  Kemp did okay but not great.  Literally no one who has been called up this year has worked out.  Unless you want to call Marisnick a call up, but in his case he didn't hit for anything in AAA so there wasn't any fall off there.  Marisnick is probably the best case for someone to hang their hat on I guess.

You have over simplified a very low number of at bats, and grouped to many people into one category.

Reed has struggled to look good at the plate, that is true.  Alex Bregman struggled with his batting average early, but he has not been overmatched at the plate, he has been putting good swings on balls.  But, part of baseball is that every player goes threw periods where balls that are hit well, turn into outs, and they can't buy a base hit, but also go threw periods where even the balls that are poorly hit, drop in.  To judge a guy just by batting average off of 28 AB's, is not realistic.  Danny Worth is not really a prospect, he has had 300 career atbats.  Most with the Detroit Tigers, and he has not shown yet an ability to hit major league pitching.  Tyler White has struggled, no doubt about it, but he was never considered a top Prospect to begin with.  And Right now, Preston Tucker looks like the guy he was last year.  When he is hot, he is hot, when he is cold, he is ICE COLD.  And unfortunately he is COLD more than he is hot.  Tony Kemp is now hitting .271, with a .353 OBP.  It sure seems to me that Tony Kemp is showing all the signs of "working out" just fine.