I don't want to turn this into a 'In Luhnow We Trust' conversation. Either you do or you don't.
I think there is a case to be made for doing nothing. But then, there is also a case to be made for doing something.
The team is built around a three man core: Altuve, Correa, Springer. Preserving that core is critical to both immediate and long term success.
The team is getting key contributions from 3 guys who are all unrestricted free agents at end of the season: Rasmus, Valbuena and Gomez.
How replaceable are they through farm system without degrading roster talent? Very. And not at all.
First, it should be noted that Rasmus would likely be willing to sign a two-year extension to stay in Houston. He's streaky as hell and not particularly good against LH pitching, but he is also a 80/25/80 hitter who is plus glove and plus locker room. He's likely a 2 for $30 million deal.
Last year at this time I imagined him to be expendable because of Preston Tucker. But PTuck isn't half the outfielder Colby is, and despite a sweet swing, struggled with the bat early this season. Other than Tucker Luke Aplin or possibly Teoscar Hernandez may be ready next Spring. But, Aplin is a poor man's Jake Mrasnick, and that's not exactly an upgrade over Rasmus, while Hernandez was almost written out of the prospect puzzle before this season wrote him back in.
Astros could venture into OF trade market for a Jay Bruce or more interestingly a Will Myers, maybe even oft injured but dynamic Yankee outfielder in Ellsbury or Gardner. For all of that, I would roll the dice with Colby and Tucker. We know that little Tucker is still two years or so away. But one of the Tucker boys eventually holds down the LF spot.
In the meantime, Colby could easily slide to CF at the end of this year when Gomez walks (no way can the Astros justify paying GoGo given his limited on field production). If Jake could hit even a little bit, he would be a CF for the next 5 years. But he can't, so a CF platoon of Colby and Jake seems reasonable for the foreseeable future.
I have even less interest in upgrading 3B outside of our system. Not sure if Moran makes it, but feel very confident that Bregman will. With Marwin around, we rely on him to balance the ups and downs of a younger player.
1B is its own challenge. AJ shows huge pop, but at the moment, MLB off speed stuff seems to be his undoing. His strikeout ratio makes him hard to keep up while we are battling for a division title (Rangers pitching is going to catch up with them). Singleton is struggling to achieve AAAA goodness. That said, both Tyler White and Matt Duffy are still too young to write off (as is Jon, but I've written him off anyway). Again, I have some trade interest in Wil Myers. He can certainly play 1B this season if needed and then move to the outfield next year pushing either Rasmus or Springer into CF.
The C position seems to be drawing interest. We likely lose Castro in the offseason. Gattis is better than expected defensively, but he continues to struggle at the plate. There is nothing at the top of the farm system with a proven productive bat, not Stassi, not Pena. Would love to still have Nottingham to be able to plug in next season, but nope. Lucroy would be a HUGE upgrade over our current tandem. Norris would likely be a better Gattis. Can we win with Gattis/Castro? I think so. Would Lucroy make the lineup significantly more dangerous? Absolutely. But at what cost?
I would love for the Astros to feature another big arm pitcher in the front five. Michael Feliz comes to mind. Chris Devenski hits 94 MPH on the gun as well. Down south we have a hard thrower in Musgrove on the cusp, with softer throwing Rogers seemingly more major league ready. At least another year away is Frances Marte. That's five good young arms for at most two open spots in the Astro rotation next season. Of course, none of those guys have the proven track record of a HEALTHY Sonny Gray or a HEALTHY Tyson Ross. But neither of those guys are healthy and both of their teams want GoGo like returns in the form of prospects. The only guy I trade the farm system for is Chris Archer, and he is either hurting or in the midst of just a nightmarish year that is inexplicable.
The bullpen needs a lefty specialist to supplant Ineffective Tony Sipp. James Hoyt comes to mind. That said, we have already mortgaged the future for one set up man in Ken Giles, doing it twice would be grounds for immediate dismissal.
Bottom line, three targets I like: Wil Myers, Jonathon Lucroy and Chris Archer. Each guy will warrant at minimum two top 10 Astro prospects -- very possibly our Most Valuable Prospect Mr. Bregman.
Personally, I would rather sit tight. It's going to be a very tough fight for the wildcard -- with Orioles, Royals, Blue Jays, Mariners, Indians, Tigers even the Rangers all battling. That said, other than the Indians, no team has been better in the AL for the last two months than our Astros.
In my mind three young guns may make the difference in our success this year: Reed, Hoyt and Bregman. I would rather lose with them than face the future without them. If we could get a Myers or a Lucroy without losing any of these three, might be worth doing. Otherwise, I say believe in the talent we have on hand.
