Author Topic: Expectations  (Read 3735 times)

MusicMan

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Expectations
« on: May 22, 2016, 04:49:12 pm »
So i decided to compare everyone to their Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections - which not only give an average, but percentiles (90th, 80th, etc.) so that you can get an idea of just how far above or below expectations each player has performed.  This isn't a perfect exercise, but I'll try to balance BA, OBP, and SLG for each hitter.  "50" means, essentially, meeting expectations

Altuve: 90+
Rasmus: 60/90/60 - give him a 70
Springer: 50 across the board
Castro: 30/90/40... call it a 50+

Thus ends the hitters meeting expectations.

Correa: 20/70/20... could generously be given a 40
White: 20/10/70... again, could generously be a 40
Marwin: 20/30/60... another sub-40
Gattis: 40/60/20 = 40
Valbuena: sub 10, across the board
Tucker: sub 10, across the board
Marisnick: sub 10, across the board
Gomez: subterranean across the board

That's 4 guys not meeting expectations, and another 4 that have fallen short of BP's worst case projections.

Pitchers are a little easier to handle, going by ERA alone:

Harris: 90+
Devenski: 90+
Feldman: 70+
Neshek: 70
Fister: 50

Gregerson: 40
Sipp: 20
Fiers: 20
Feliz: 10
Giles: sub-10
Fields: sub-10
McHugh: sub-10
McCullers: sub-10/Inc.
Keuchel: sub-10

So that's 9 guys on the team meeting expectations, with only 3 of those being wildly pleasant surprises.

If you look at the others, you have more players that have fallen short of the worst-case scenario than have actually met expectations.

I don't see how you blame the manager or the GM for this.  Nobody could have foreseen half the team just completely falling to pieces.
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HudsonHawk

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Re: Expectations
« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2016, 06:08:09 pm »
I know he's young, but I don't get the hype around Correa. He should end up being a plus player, and maybe manage to make an All Star someday. That he'll be a franchise/elite player is wishful thinking, IMO.
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juliogotay

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Re: Expectations
« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2016, 06:16:22 pm »
I know he's young, but I don't get the hype around Correa. He should end up being a plus player, and maybe manage to make an All Star someday. That he'll be a franchise/elite player is wishful thinking, IMO.

If he hits 25 HRs a year with 80 RBI from the SS position I think that would qualify as an elite player. If he does that from 3rd then he would be a good player. He should only get better if he stays healthy which he will have a better shot at from 3rd. He has a +arm too. There are a lot of good SS out there now though.

juliogotay

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Re: Expectations
« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2016, 06:32:03 pm »
I think our expectations are too high for this team and it is still because of the great start last year plus the near-upset of KC in playoffs.
Looking at the construction of the roster puts some of this in more perspective for me.
Consider that seven of these players were drafted but four of them in the first round (Springer, McCullers, Castro, Correa) with Correa being a 1/1. Keuchel was a 7th rounder, Kemp a 5th and White a 33rd. Three of these 7 were drafted pre-Luhnow.
Eight of the players on current roster were Free Agents but not the big-budget variety. These include Altuve and Feliz (both pre-Luhnow) and several non-frontline pitchers, including the current closer, (Feldman, Fister, Neshek, Sipp, Gregerson) plus Rasmus.
Trades have brought Devenski (to close the Myers deal), Fiers and Gomez last July, Marisnick and Moran from the Cosart deal, Marwin, Gattis, and Giles in the big one last winter. Harris and McHugh were waiver deals.

The point is that we still aren't seeing the fruit of Luhnow's long-term plan from players he is drafting and a lot of these guys were just meant to be stop-gap types until the calvary arrives which it should be doing over the next 18 mos. in some numbers.

Maybe this is about what we should expect from this group? A few core guys to build around surrounded by cast-offs.

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Re: Expectations
« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2016, 06:36:28 pm »
I know he's young, but I don't get the hype around Correa. He should end up being a plus player, and maybe manage to make an All Star someday. That he'll be a franchise/elite player is wishful thinking, IMO.
I get the hype, and I still expect him to be an elite player. Seeing him struggle this year has been disappointing but not surprising given his age and experience. 

HudsonHawk

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Re: Expectations
« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2016, 06:57:41 pm »
If he hits 25 HRs a year with 80 RBI from the SS position I think that would qualify as an elite player. If he does that from 3rd then he would be a good player. He should only get better if he stays healthy which he will have a better shot at from 3rd. He has a +arm too. There are a lot of good SS out there now though.

I disagree.  I think Correa is a .280/.800 OPS/20-25 HR/80 RBI guy at best.  That's a nice player.  That's not Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, whether he does it SS, 3B or any other position, let alone comparable to historical great players, which is often thrown around.  Again, I think he'll be a solid player.  I don't see him being a great player. 
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Jacksonian

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Re: Expectations
« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2016, 07:11:22 pm »
I know he's young, but I don't get the hype around Correa. He should end up being a plus player, and maybe manage to make an All Star someday. That he'll be a franchise/elite player is wishful thinking, IMO.

He's considered that by so many because he's dominated every level and been the best player at every level despite his age.  If he's not elite at the mlb level then he won't have matched his previous levels of production for the level.
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HudsonHawk

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Re: Expectations
« Reply #7 on: May 22, 2016, 07:13:47 pm »
He's considered that by so many because he's dominated every level and been the best player at every level despite his age.  If he's not elite at the mlb level then he won't have matched his previous levels of production for the level.

Yes, I get that.  I'm saying I think that's going to be the case. 
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Jacksonian

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Re: Expectations
« Reply #8 on: May 22, 2016, 07:21:16 pm »
Yes, I get that.  I'm saying I think that's going to be the case.

Damning for Correa or the level of talent in the minors.
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HudsonHawk

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Re: Expectations
« Reply #9 on: May 22, 2016, 07:26:16 pm »
Damning for Correa or the level of talent in the minors.

Not necessarily either, and certainly not Correa.  He is what he is, will be what he will be.  Which I think is a nice player.  I just don't buy into the expectations of him being the next ARod.   
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juliogotay

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Re: Expectations
« Reply #10 on: May 22, 2016, 07:44:04 pm »
Not necessarily either, and certainly not Correa.  He is what he is, will be what he will be.  Which I think is a nice player.  I just don't buy into the expectations of him being the next ARod.

So, I can put you down for not agreeing with Gattis in the commercial where he says he could be the best player ever?

austro

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Re: Expectations
« Reply #11 on: May 22, 2016, 07:47:59 pm »
So, I can put you down for not agreeing with Gattis in the commercial where he says he could be the best player ever?

Probably another swing and miss by Gattis.
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MusicMan

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Re: Expectations
« Reply #12 on: May 22, 2016, 07:50:03 pm »
I know he's young, but I don't get the hype around Correa. He should end up being a plus player, and maybe manage to make an All Star someday. That he'll be a franchise/elite player is wishful thinking, IMO.

There is nothing I can reply to this that belongs in civilized society.

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Re: Expectations
« Reply #13 on: May 22, 2016, 08:14:21 pm »
There is nothing I can reply to this that belongs in civilized society.

Choose your second. Pistols at dawn, sir.
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Arky Vaughan

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Re: Expectations
« Reply #14 on: May 22, 2016, 08:28:33 pm »
I disagree.  I think Correa is a .280/.800 OPS/20-25 HR/80 RBI guy at best.  That's a nice player.  That's not Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, whether he does it SS, 3B or any other position, let alone comparable to historical great players, which is often thrown around.  Again, I think he'll be a solid player.  I don't see him being a great player.

If he hits like that for a reasonable period of time and plays decently at shortstop, he'll be comparable to Barry Larkin and likely go into the Hall of Fame. Only one shortstop in the last nine decades hit like Trout and Harper, and it's unclear how long he was on PEDs.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2016, 10:58:36 pm by Arky Vaughan »

HudsonHawk

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Re: Expectations
« Reply #15 on: May 22, 2016, 08:43:19 pm »
If he hits like that for a reasonable period of time and played decently at shortstop he'd be comparable to Barry Larkin and go into the Hall of Fame. Only one shortstop in the last nine decades hit like Trout and Harper, and it's unclear how long he was on PEDs.

I think those are his career year numbers, not his average. And I don't care if he plays SS or 3B or pitcher. I don't see him hitting .300. I don't see him hitting 30 HRs a year. I don't see him driving in 100 runs. I hope he ends up being a hall of famer. But I think he'll be closer to Ben Zobriat than Alex Rodriguez
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Re: Expectations
« Reply #16 on: May 23, 2016, 07:17:40 am »
Probably another swing and miss by Gattis.

At least not a double play.
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Re: Expectations
« Reply #17 on: May 23, 2016, 12:08:29 pm »
There is nothing I can reply to this that belongs in civilized society.

Choose your second. Pistols at dawn, sir.
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Re: Expectations
« Reply #18 on: May 23, 2016, 03:16:51 pm »
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