Astros #17 in Keith Law's 2016 Farm System Rankings

[ValpoCory]

The Astros were #3 last year. 

Law just released his 2016 list.

1.       Atlanta Braves
2.       Los Angeles Dodgers
3.       Minnesota Twins
4.       Chicago Cubs
5.       Milwaukee Brewers
6.       Philadelphia Phillies
7.       Colorado Rockies
8.       Pittsburgh Pirates
9.       Texas Rangers
10.   Boston Red Sox
11.   Cleveland Indians
12.   Cincinnati Reds
13.   New York Yankees
14.   Tampa Bay Rays
15.   Washington Nationals
16.   New York Mets
17.   Houston Astros
18.   Oakland Athletics
19.   St. Louis Cardinals
20.   San Diego Padres
21.   San Francisco Giants
22.   Chicago White Sox
23.   Kansas City Royals
24.   Arizona Diamondbacks
25.   Toronto Blue Jays
26.   Detroit Tigers
27.   Baltimore Orioles
28.   Seattle Mariners
29.   Miami Marlins
30.   Los Angeles Angels


On the glass is half full side, Houston is 2nd best in the AL West.

[jbm]

I have never been one to give a shit about ranking prospects, either as individuals or by team, but I find this hard to stomach.  Even though the Astros have lost a ton of prospects, they have an uncanny ability to keep creating more, often apparently out of thin air.  It's impossible for me to imagine they have fallen off that much.

[Mr. Happy]

Consider. The. Source.

[VirtualBob]

Consider. The. Source.

Exactly.

[moriartp]

Remember: the current regime has enough respect for Keith Law that they brought him in to interview for a job in the scouting department. I don't think his opinions should be dismissed so quickly. There are a lot—really, a fuckload—of worse prospect writers out there.

17 seems low, but I'm not worried about it. There are plenty of guys down there who can contribute the ML roster in the coming years. The talent in the organization is just more concentrated in the majors now. Nothing wrong with that. This FO knows what it's doing.

[juliogotay]

Remember: the current regime has enough respect for Keith Law that they brought him in to interview for a job in the scouting department. I don't think his opinions should be dismissed so quickly. There are a lot—really, a fuckload—of worse prospect writers out there.

17 seems low, but I'm not worried about it. There are plenty of guys down there who can contribute the ML roster in the coming years. The talent in the organization is just more concentrated in the majors now. Nothing wrong with that. This FO knows what it's doing.

And a ton of top prospects were spun for ML help.

[roadrunner]

Consider. The. Source.

?

Law had the Astros #3 last year and a few years ago he had them #1 before many had caught on to what Luhnow was building.  You have to realize that graduating Correa/McCullers and trading away Phillips/Velasquez/Appel is a huge dent into the prospect pool.  That doesn't mean the Astros youth isn't set up for future success....most of that is already in Houston and therefore ineligible for "prospect" status.

[Reuben]

?

Law had the Astros #3 last year and a few years ago he had them #1 before many had caught on to what Luhnow was building.  You have to realize that graduating Correa/McCullers and trading away Phillips/Velasquez/Appel is a huge dent into the prospect pool.  That doesn't mean the Astros youth isn't set up for future success....most of that is already in Houston and therefore ineligible for "prospect" status.

I agree. They also lost Hader, Domingo Santana and Nottingham and graduated Tucker. That said, way down at 17 instead of 8-12 range is still surprising to me. I'd think many teams would envy their top 5 guys, as well as their depth.

[Mike S.]

This.  I've read several commentaries saying much the same thing.  That is, Houston's depth certainly took a hit from last year, but the top tier of its prospects would still rank pretty in most every other organization.

[moriartp]

Astros are #2 in the Baseball America rankings.

[pots]

Law likes to be the first to trend something.  For example on Phillips, he put him in his top 50 way before everyone else had him in the top 100. 

Astros have been willing to trade away prospects, if they do again at the deadline this year their farm will be middle of the pack.  And then he'll be able to point out that he was first to severely downgrade them

[astrosfan76]

BA is airing their top 50 on MLB Network tonight at 8pm, but have 51-100 live on their website.  Out of that list, the following farmhands made the cut:

91 - David Paulino
83 - Joe Musgrove
74 - Daz Cameron
61 - Kyle Tucker

That leaves Reed, Bregman, and Martes as pretty good candidates for the top 50.  I can picture one in the 20's, one in the 30's, and one in the 40's.  I know Badler is really high on Reed, so depending on the others, it's possible that he and Bregman both fall in the 20's, but I see Martes going somewhere in the 40-49 range.  Regardless, this list shows how they came up with #2 for the system.

[moriartp]

BA is airing their top 50 on MLB Network tonight at 8pm, but have 51-100 live on their website.  Out of that list, the following farmhands made the cut:

91 - David Paulino
83 - Joe Musgrove
74 - Daz Cameron
61 - Kyle Tucker

That leaves Reed, Bregman, and Martes as pretty good candidates for the top 50.  I can picture one in the 20's, one in the 30's, and one in the 40's.  I know Badler is really high on Reed, so depending on the others, it's possible that he and Bregman both fall in the 20's, but I see Martes going somewhere in the 40-49 range.  Regardless, this list shows how they came up with #2 for the system.

They had Martes over Bregman in their org top 10 list. I think Badler might be responsible for that ranking, too. If Phillips were still in the organization, I think Badler would have convinced the rest of the BA staff to put the Astros at #1 overall.

[Nate Colbert]

They had Martes over Bregman in their org top 10 list. I think Badler might be responsible for that ranking, too.

That was JJ Cooper. Matt Eddy and John Manuel also ranked Martes ahead of Bregman. Badler was the only one of those four to pick Bregman.

Based on their personal Top 50 lists which were previously published, a simple averaging would put Reed at #10, Martes at #23 and Bregman at #35 or #36.

[Nate Colbert]

So the final BA rankings per tonight's MLB Network show were:

• #42. Bregman
• #20. Martes
• #11. Reed

 

[Duman]

MILB put out their top orgs for position player rankings and the Astros came in at #4

[Duman]

MLB put out their org rankings and the Astros came in at #10

10. Astros' Top 30 Prospects | Breakdown
Astros in Top 100: 5 -- SS Alex Bregman (No. 22), 1B A.J. Reed (No. 40), RHP Francis Martes (No. 41), OF Kyle Tucker (No. 74), OF Daz Cameron (No. 75)
Prospect Points (MLB rank): 253 (9th)
Though they graduated or traded all four of their preseason 2015 Top 100 Prospects and also dealt current Top 100ers Brett Phillips and Josh Hader, the Astros still have a farm system with depth and star power. They set a Draft record by spending $19,103,000 on bonuses last summer, including a combined $13.9 million for shortstop Alex Bregman and outfielders Kyle Tucker and Daz Cameron. Houston also has made some astute trades, acquiring its best pitching prospects (Francis Martes, David Paulino and Joe Musgrove) via that route.]10. Astros' Top 30 Prospects | Breakdown
Astros in Top 100: 5 -- SS Alex Bregman (No. 22), 1B A.J. Reed (No. 40), RHP Francis Martes (No. 41), OF Kyle Tucker (No. 74), OF Daz Cameron (No. 75)
Prospect Points (MLB rank): 253 (9th)
Though they graduated or traded all four of their preseason 2015 Top 100 Prospects and also dealt current Top 100ers Brett Phillips and Josh Hader, the Astros still have a farm system with depth and star power. They set a Draft record by spending $19,103,000 on bonuses last summer, including a combined $13.9 million for shortstop Alex Bregman and outfielders Kyle Tucker and Daz Cameron. Houston also has made some astute trades, acquiring its best pitching prospects (Francis Martes, David Paulino and Joe Musgrove) via that route

Interesting to see the Brewers at #9 with three four former Astros mentioned: Houser, Phillips and Hader + Nottingham

[astrosfan76]

Interesting to see the Brewers at #9 with three former Astros mentioned: Houser, Phillips and Hader

Phils at #8 with two more of our former farmhands on their list, Appel at #4 and Eshelman at #15.   

[MusicMan]

Astros come in at #8 in BP's org rankings.


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[Nate Colbert]

MLB put out their org rankings and the Astros came in at #10

Move up to #3 in their mid-season rankings.

"The Astros match the Brewers for the lead with eight Top 100 Prospects, starting with the best in baseball, infielder Alex Bregman (No. 1). Houston has wisely used premium Draft picks on Bregman (second overall in 2015), first baseman A.J. Reed (No. 36, second round in 2014), outfielder Kyle Tucker (No. 61, fifth overall in 2015), right-hander Forrest Whitley (No. 83, 17th overall in 2016) and outfielder Derek Fisher (No. 99, supplemental first round in 2014). It also has stolen most of its best mound prospects as minor trade pieces when they were in Rookie ball: righties Francis Martes (No. 39, from the Marlins for Jarred Cosart), David Paulino (No. 84, from the Tigers for Jose Veras) and Joe Musgrove (No. 85, from the Blue Jays in a 10-player deal)."

Link

[juliogotay]

Move up to #3 in their mid-season rankings.

"The Astros match the Brewers for the lead with eight Top 100 Prospects, starting with the best in baseball, infielder Alex Bregman (No. 1). Houston has wisely used premium Draft picks on Bregman (second overall in 2015), first baseman A.J. Reed (No. 36, second round in 2014), outfielder Kyle Tucker (No. 61, fifth overall in 2015), right-hander Forrest Whitley (No. 83, 17th overall in 2016) and outfielder Derek Fisher (No. 99, supplemental first round in 2014). It also has stolen most of its best mound prospects as minor trade pieces when they were in Rookie ball: righties Francis Martes (No. 39, from the Marlins for Jarred Cosart), David Paulino (No. 84, from the Tigers for Jose Veras) and Joe Musgrove (No. 85, from the Blue Jays in a 10-player deal)."

Link

That's pretty good scouting on Martes, Paulino and Musgrove. And/or Development.