2016 HOF Class

[Uncle Charlie]

The new ballot has been issued: http://espn.go.com/blog/newyork/mets/post/_/id/113181/mike-piazza-headlines-new-hall-of-fame-ballot with winners announced just after the beginning of the year.

Much of the "crowding" is beginning to subside, even if you include those labeled with steroid suspicions - that should help Bagwell who undoubtedly was left out of some full ballots with 2 straight years of 3 first timers being elected;  Of the newbies for 2106, it seems that only Griffey seems to have the ability to get in on first ballot, though Hoffman will get some votes I'm sure.

If I had a ballot, here's what it will look like:

Bonds
Clemens
Griffey
Piazza
Schilling
McGwire
Hoffman
Sheffield
Bagwell
Walker

[MusicMan]

Strike Walker, add Trammell


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Duman]

Bonds
Clemens
Griffey
Piazza
Hoffman
Bagwell
Raines
Trammell

[Bench]

Wagner has begun his campaign.  From FooterTweets:

Wagner: "I want to be very humble about what I'm hoping for. But I feel my numbers speak for themselves as far as the Hall of Fame goes... I see myself as one of the guys that was among the best in my era. I think I should be highly considered."

Wagner's save total is fifth-most in history, second among left-handers. Pitched for HOU, PHI, NYM, BOS, ATL.

I hope that wasn't Wagner's best pitch.

ETA:  Footer's story

[doyce7]

Wagner has begun his campaign.  From FooterTweets:

Wagner: "I want to be very humble about what I'm hoping for. But I feel my numbers speak for themselves as far as the Hall of Fame goes... I see myself as one of the guys that was among the best in my era. I think I should be highly considered."

Wagner's save total is fifth-most in history, second among left-handers. Pitched for HOU, PHI, NYM, BOS, ATL.

I hope that wasn't Wagner's best pitch.

ETA:  Footer's story

I love wags, he's one of my favorite Astro pitchers but he's not a HOFer to me.

[MusicMan]

I told Footer yesterday that if Wags somehow got in before Bagwell, I would need an airtight alibi for when the HOF burns down.

[ValpoCory]

Will Bagwell ever get in the Hall of Fame?  Is he doomed to be like Jack Morris and get close but never quite there?   Several have pointed to the Veteran's Committee as an option, but they haven't voted in a  player since Maz in 2001.    The Golden Era Committee elected Santo in 2012, but Bagwell's era won't be Golden (retired 21 years) for a while.

Last year, Bagwell was 306/549 (55.7%).  And we have the change for this year now ...

the board made several other alterations to the balloting, including a change in eligibility that limited voters to BBWAA members who have actively covered baseball within the past 10 years. That reduced the number of ballots distributed from just fewer than 600 last year to 475 this year.

 I will be interested to see how this impacts Bagwell's votes.  If 90-95% of those 475 vote, then Bagwell will only need 321-339 votes to get to 75%.  Do you think the retired voters voted for Bagwell at a higher or lower rate that the 475 actives?   

[VirtualBob]

Strike Walker, add Trammell


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Good move.

[Reuben]

Will Bagwell ever get in the Hall of Fame?  Is he doomed to be like Jack Morris and get close but never quite there?   Several have pointed to the Veteran's Committee as an option, but they haven't voted in a  player since Maz in 2001.    The Golden Era Committee elected Santo in 2012, but Bagwell's era won't be Golden (retired 21 years) for a while.

Last year, Bagwell was 306/549 (55.7%).  And we have the change for this year now ...

 I will be interested to see how this impacts Bagwell's votes.  If 90-95% of those 475 vote, then Bagwell will only need 321-339 votes to get to 75%.  Do you think the retired voters voted for Bagwell at a higher or lower rate that the 475 actives?   

I definitely get the sense that many of those guys were non-Bagwell supporters, including those in the "I won't vote for any player from the PED era" and some of the "I won't vote for Bagwell because he had muscles" camp, and probably some in the "he didn't hit 500 homers camp."

If Bagwell could somehow make the leap into the 65% range this year, that would be a really good sign.

[Nate Colbert]

Ryan Thibs has his HOF ballot tracker up and running.

[Nate Colbert]

The sabermetric case for Wags:

Expect at least a few writers to describe Hoffman as the National League version of Rivera during the years they pitched. That title should belong to Wagner who trounces Hoffman in WAA, ERA+, FIP, and SO/9.

Among relievers with at least 500 career innings, Wagner has the best WHIP all-time at .998 and is tied with Brad Lidge for best SO/9 at 11.92. His 187 ERA+ is second all-time to Rivera’s 205, and his 2.73 FIP trails only Tom Henke’s 2.72.

[HudsonHawk]

Several have pointed to the Veteran's Committee as an option, but they haven't voted in a  player since Maz in 2001.

That's partly because the Veteran's Committee was eliminated in 2009 (and the last player they voted in was Joe Gordon in 2009). 

Personally, I don't think Bagwell will ever get in. 

[BlownRanger]

Personally, I don't think Bagwell will ever get in.

I'm afraid you're probably right.  I'm hoping enough writers switch their vote in order to avoid questions of hypocrisy when they vote in A-Rod and Ortiz, but ultimately I don't think they give a shit about such allegations.

[Nate Colbert]

Ryan Thibs (@NotMrTibbs) notes in a couple of tweets:

(Ex-Houston Post scribe) Ivy McLemore, a HOF voter for 29 years, is the only voter to ever email me his ballot unsolicited. He's lost his vote due to new Hall rules. Last year, McLemore voted for 9 candidates: Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Randy, Kent, Pedro, Piazza, and Smoltz.

[Nate Colbert]

I definitely get the sense that many of those guys were non-Bagwell supporters...

May still be true overall but Ryan Thibs tweeted out yesterday that 20 of the 75 or so "purged" had public votes last year and 55% of those voted for Bagwell (in line with his overall numbers).

[ValpoCory]

I'm afraid you're probably right.  I'm hoping enough writers switch their vote in order to avoid questions of hypocrisy when they vote in A-Rod and Ortiz, but ultimately I don't think they give a shit about such allegations.

So far Jeff has picked up a net of 5 votes this year with returning public voters.   

Ryan Thibs has his HOF ballot tracker up and running.

27 of 30 have him on so far (90%).  Replacing the returning public voters with their last year vote, Bags was at 22 of these same 30 voters (73%) last year.


So far, every single public voter that has voted for 10 players has voted for Bagwell.

[ValpoCory]

One of the 3 people who have left Bagwell off so far is Juan Vené:

Ryan Thibs ‏@NotMrTibbs Dec 6

Mr. Vené tells me that Jeff Bagwell will likely appear on his ballot next year. #BBHOFTracker"

[MusicMan]

I hope not.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[HudsonHawk]

One of the 3 people who have left Bagwell off so far is Juan Vené:

"I don't think he's a HOFer now, but I think he will be in 11 months". Which makes no sense. It's one thing if a guy votes for 10 and doesn't have room for another. But Vene voted for four guys, one of them Lee Smith.

[Nate Colbert]

So far Jeff has picked up a net of 5 votes this year with returning public voters.

He's now gained 8 votes in the 37 ballots tabulated thus far. Very encouraging.

27 of 30 have him on so far (90%).

33 out of 37 (89%).

[Randy Watson]

The new ballot has been issued: http://espn.go.com/blog/newyork/mets/post/_/id/113181/mike-piazza-headlines-new-hall-of-fame-ballot with winners announced just after the beginning of the year.

Much of the "crowding" is beginning to subside, even if you include those labeled with steroid suspicions - that should help Bagwell who undoubtedly was left out of some full ballots with 2 straight years of 3 first timers being elected;  Of the newbies for 2106, it seems that only Griffey seems to have the ability to get in on first ballot, though Hoffman will get some votes I'm sure.

If I had a ballot, here's what it will look like:

Bonds
Clemens
Griffey
Piazza
Schilling
McGwire
Hoffman
Sheffield
Bagwell
Walker

Your forgot Tim Raines

[Nate Colbert]

Ryan Thibs ‏@NotMrTibbs  4 hours ago
Right now, Jeff Bagwell has 84.5% through 84 ballots. Biggio was at 82.2% through 84 last year.

[Uncle Charlie]

Ryan Thibs ‏@NotMrTibbs  4 hours ago
Right now, Jeff Bagwell has 84.5% through 84 ballots. Biggio was at 82.2% through 84 last year.

He's +14 on ballots from last year out of those 84 ballots too, which is a very good sign.

[Uncle Charlie]

With about 25% (111 votes) in, it appears that 4 players are on track - Griffey, piazza, Bagwell, and Raines.  While this is interesting, especially regarding Bagwell b/c of his Asteos career but also the PED talk surround him, the gains made by other notables is almost shocking in its magnitude in current (public) votes from last years actual final tally:

Edgar Martinez -  51% public from 27% actual
Curt Schilling - 62% public from 39% actual
Mike Mussina - 58% public from 25% actual

And most notably from the center of the PED universe:
Barry Bonds - 51% public from 31% actual
DQ - 50% public from 38% actual

[HudsonHawk]

With about 25% (111 votes) in, it appears that 4 players are on track - Griffey, piazza, Bagwell, and Raines.  While this is interesting, especially regarding Bagwell b/c of his Asteos career but also the PED talk surround him, the gains made by other notables is almost shocking in its magnitude in current (public) votes from last years actual final tally:

Edgar Martinez -  51% public from 27% actual
Curt Schilling - 62% public from 39% actual
Mike Mussina - 58% public from 25% actual

And most notably from the center of the PED universe:
Barry Bonds - 51% public from 31% actual
DQ - 50% public from 38% actual

The voter purge this year probably has a lot to do with this, for two reasons:  1) it got rid of a lot of the crusty old farts who hadn't seen a game since 1974 and thought there hasn't been a HOFer since WWII, and 2) it lit a fire under the collective ass of those remaining, who woke up and said "holy shit, we'd better start taking this seriously."

[ValpoCory]

2 days left before the announcement.   Bagwell is at 81.8% (117 of 143), which is lower in the Public ballots than Biggio was in the year Biggio missed the mark by 2 votes.   So even though it's unlikely Bagwell makes it in this year, he should be above 65%, so that's promising.   I hope Piazza gets in this year, freeing up another ballot slot for next year.    I will also be interested in the non-public ballots this year, to see if Bagwell's numbers go up from last year's 48.4% at a similar rate to the Public ballots (60%-->81%).  Probably not, but it will be good to see some improvement there.

So far no one who publicly voted for Bagwell last year has dropped him from their ballot and 19 voters who publicly left Bagwell off last year have added him this year.

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!7156&ithint=file%2cxlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AC7uZHAmcVGWgwE

[ValpoCory]

Ballot #144 just came in, no Bagwell, citing not the Hall of Very Good.

http://www.clickondetroit.com/sports/rob-parker/rob-parkers-cooperstown-ballot-who-he-voted-for-and-why

[mrpink]

Ballot #144 just came in, no Bagwell, citing not the Hall of Very Good.

http://www.clickondetroit.com/sports/rob-parker/rob-parkers-cooperstown-ballot-who-he-voted-for-and-why

I can't believe that guy has a vote.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/21392746/rob-parker-calls-rg3-a-cornball-brother-says-hes-not-one-of-us

[ValpoCory]

Bagwell just picked up his 20th changed vote.    About a third of the vote is in with Bagwell at 81.5%

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!7156&ithint=file%2cxlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AC7uZHAmcVGWgwE

[homer]

2 days left before the announcement.   Bagwell is at 81.8% (117 of 143), which is lower in the Public ballots than Biggio was in the year Biggio missed the mark by 2 votes.   So even though it's unlikely Bagwell makes it in this year, he should be above 65%, so that's promising.   I hope Piazza gets in this year, freeing up another ballot slot for next year.    I will also be interested in the non-public ballots this year, to see if Bagwell's numbers go up from last year's 48.4% at a similar rate to the Public ballots (60%-->81%).  Probably not, but it will be good to see some improvement there.

So far no one who publicly voted for Bagwell last year has dropped him from their ballot and 19 voters who publicly left Bagwell off last year have added him this year.

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!7156&ithint=file%2cxlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AC7uZHAmcVGWgwE

What makes you conclude that it's unlikely?

[Reuben]

Ballot #144 just came in, no Bagwell, citing not the Hall of Very Good.

http://www.clickondetroit.com/sports/rob-parker/rob-parkers-cooperstown-ballot-who-he-voted-for-and-why

What a motherfuckin' tool. There's nothing more worth saying or wasting time examining about this guy. He literally wrote "Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Gary Sheffield all belong."

Then he wrote "I can hear fans now: No Jeff Bagwell. No Mike Piazza. No Mike Mussina. No way, no how."

What the fuck is he talking about? All he seems to care about are his "magic numbers" a la Sheffield's 509 HR, and here's the real work of a real professional journalist "My way of voting is simple: If there's a debate, based on your numbers, about you being in the Hall of Fame, you AREN'T a Hall of Famer."

What a fuckin' dick-beat.

[ValpoCory]

What makes you conclude that it's unlikely?

Based on historical trends of Bagwell having a high Private vs. Public differential and considering 2/3rds of the vote right now is Private.     His Private vote at this time would need to go up 23.6 points to 72% in order for Jeff to make it this year.

The vote may shock me, but I'd expect Bagwell to end up somewhere between 65-70%.    And if that happens, I think he'll get in sometime over the next four ballots.  There are about 1-2 Hall of Famers per year coming onto the ballots in those years, so nothing overwhelming the ballots.

With so many voters voting for 10 players, it makes rooting for others to make it to free up a spot very important.   Go Piazza.

[ValpoCory]

ESPN's annual Hall of Famer voter release isn't coming until the day of the announcement this year.  Later than normal to see Pedro Gomez once again snub all Astros.

[ValpoCory]

Bagwell was left off of 5 of the 10 new ballots that MLB.com just released.   However, he picked up a net of 1 vote in that group over last year, his 21st vote pick-up.   

But Jeff is down to 79.5% (124 of 156) now.   

"TERENCE MOORE, columnist
Griffey, Hoffman, McGriff, Mike Piazza, Raines, Sheffield, Smith

My philosophy hasn't changed. I vote for the best players on the ballot without a clear-cut connection to performance-enhancing drugs."

"MARTY NOBLE, national reporter
Griffey, Kent
...
Kent is the Babe Ruth of second basemen. His run production dwarfs that of others at his position. If Kent was defensively deficient, his offense compensated. He loved the game, though his affection for it wasn't as evident as Junior's. But that affection does factor into Kent's candidacy, as does his unyielding style of play. He made himself an acceptable defender and a formidable force in the batter's box.

I almost cast votes for McGriff, Mussina and Wagner. More research and analysis, though, are necessary. And I can't fathom voting for 10 candidates. The Hall is for the elite, not the exceptional. "

[chuck]

The Griffey Kent guy is pretty special.

I really don't understand someone's voting for Piazza and not Bagwell.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

"TERENCE MOORE, columnist
Griffey, Hoffman, McGriff, Mike Piazza, Raines, Sheffield, Smith

My philosophy hasn't changed. I vote for the best players on the ballot without a clear-cut connection to performance-enhancing drugs."

Sheffield said he applied a steroid known as "the cream" on his surgically scarred right leg to heal wounds, though he insisted he didn't know it was a steroid. Sheffield said he used the drug before and during the 2002 season.

Terrence Moore is a sorry excuse. He apparently has never heard of the Mitchell Report Which by the way has no mention of Bagwell but does mention Sheffield.

[cougar]

What a motherfuckin' tool. There's nothing more worth saying or wasting time examining about this guy. He literally wrote "Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Gary Sheffield all belong."

Then he wrote "I can hear fans now: No Jeff Bagwell. No Mike Piazza. No Mike Mussina. No way, no how."

What the fuck is he talking about? All he seems to care about are his "magic numbers" a la Sheffield's 509 HR, and here's the real work of a real professional journalist "My way of voting is simple: If there's a debate, based on your numbers, about you being in the Hall of Fame, you AREN'T a Hall of Famer."

What a fuckin' dick-beat.

Well you know, those extra 60 HRs and 147 RBIs over the 7 extra seasons Sheffield had makes all the difference.  It's people like this that make me rethink our banning of public floggings and the stocks.

[Fredia]

dont forget the throwning of the rotten fruit

[astrosfan76]

Based on historical trends of Bagwell having a high Private vs. Public differential and considering 2/3rds of the vote right now is Private.     His Private vote at this time would need to go up 23.6 points to 72% in order for Jeff to make it this year.

The vote may shock me, but I'd expect Bagwell to end up somewhere between 65-70%.    And if that happens, I think he'll get in sometime over the next four ballots.  There are about 1-2 Hall of Famers per year coming onto the ballots in those years, so nothing overwhelming the ballots.

With so many voters voting for 10 players, it makes rooting for others to make it to free up a spot very important.   Go Piazza.

I don't think that Bagwell's problem has been voters leaving him off their ballots because they ran out of room, though.  In his five years on the ballot (not counting this year), there have been 10 players elected to the Hall.  Seven of those ten were elected in the past two years, with Biggio the only one who wasn't elected on their first ballot.  So, we're not seeing a backlog of players keeping guys like Bagwell out.

If you look at the fifteen MLB voters, there were eight who filled their ballots, Bagwell was included on all of them.  Going through the @notmrthibs spreadsheet, so far, there has only been one person out of 82 with a full ballot who did not vote for Bagwell this year.  So, if he does not get in this year, it won't be because voters just ran out of room.  On the other hand, he's only received 45 votes from the 76 writers who did not fill their ballot.

This isn't to say that Bagwell only gets in if enough voters fill their ballots or that having fewer deserving candidates on the ballot hurts his chances of getting in.  But, based on the percentages, Piazza's presence on the ballot doesn't seem to be a detriment.    I wouldn't be surprised if your 65-70% figure is what he ends up with, but I think the factors that are keeping him out are more along the lines of the opinions that have been shared in this thread (not good enough, magic numbers, their best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with this girl who saw him look at a needle one time, etc). 

[ValpoCory]

Update before tomorrow's announcement, with 36.2% of the vote reporting ...

Griffey -- 100.0% (163 out of 163)
Piazza -- 86.5% (141 / 163)
Bagwell -- 79.8% (130 / 163)
Raines -- 78.5% (128 / 163)

[juliogotay]

The Griffey Kent guy is pretty special.

I really don't understand someone's voting for Piazza and not Bagwell.

Catcher.

[ValpoCory]

Going through the @notmrthibs spreadsheet, so far, there has only been one person out of 82 with a full ballot who did not vote for Bagwell this year.  So, if he does not get in this year, it won't be because voters just ran out of room. 

Excellent point.  Good catch.    Especially when you consider that one person also left Piazza off his or her ballot. 

Most of Bagwell's backlog benefit happened this year.   Of the 22 votes Bagwell has picked up so far this year, 15 of those came from voters who voted for 10 players last year.    On a side note, 5 voters who voted for Bagwell in 2014, did not vote for him in 2015, but voted for him in 2016. 

Earlier in this thread we mentioned a writer who is on record as going to add Bagwell to his ballot next year.  Hopefully others will do the same, especially if Bagwell is close.   7 of the 22 vote pick-ups this year have been from voters with similar revelations and nothing to do with vote maximums. 

[juliogotay]

Sheffield said he applied a steroid known as "the cream" on his surgically scarred right leg to heal wounds, though he insisted he didn't know it was a steroid. Sheffield said he used the drug before and during the 2002 season.

Terrence Moore is a sorry excuse. He apparently has never heard of the Mitchell Report Which by the way has no mention of Bagwell but does mention Sheffield.

That cream must not have been much of a healing agent if he had to use it that long for a wound. I think I would have tried something else. Oh...wait.

[astrosfan76]

Excellent point.  Good catch.    Especially when you consider that one person also left Piazza off his or her ballot. 

Most of Bagwell's backlog benefit happened this year.   Of the 22 votes Bagwell has picked up so far this year, 15 of those came from voters who voted for 10 players last year.    On a side note, 5 voters who voted for Bagwell in 2014, did not vote for him in 2015, but voted for him in 2016. 

Earlier in this thread we mentioned a writer who is on record as going to add Bagwell to his ballot next year.  Hopefully others will do the same, especially if Bagwell is close.   7 of the 22 vote pick-ups this year have been from voters with similar revelations.

I didn't find last year's ballots (didn't spend a ton of time looking, though), so I didn't have that comparison.  I realize that this class doesn't have the number of "surefire" guys as last year, but I'm surprised that that high of a percentage of gains were from voters who had him as a bubble-guy last year. 

To echo Hudson, I don't get someone excluding him this year, only to add him next year, especially if they have room on the ballot.  We're not talking about excluding someone to ensure they don't reach 100% (not starting a debate on the merits of that mindset) or planning to throw someone a sympathy vote because it will be their 15th year.  We're looking at a guy entering the middle stages of his candidacy.   

[Limey]

dont forget the throwning of the rotten fruit

I'd throw fresh fruit: it's more solid.

[Limey]

Catcher.

NTTAWWT

[ValpoCory]

Update before tomorrow's announcement, with 36.2% of the vote reporting ...

Griffey -- 100.0% (163 out of 163)
Piazza -- 86.5% (141 / 163)
Bagwell -- 79.8% (130 / 163)
Raines -- 78.5% (128 / 163)

Bagwell 3 for 3 today.  We must be playing the Giants.    Good to see him back above 80%.

Griffey -- 100.0% (166 out of 166)
Piazza -- 86.7% (144 / 163)
Bagwell -- 80.1% (133 / 166)
Raines -- 78.3% (130 / 163)

[ValpoCory]

Well, fuck the Chronicle.  Is this the same guy that came in the GZ in Game 4 to talk about the ALCS?

Jeff Bagwell to make the Hall of Fame, according to early projections


ETA:  He just changed the title of that piece to "Measuring Jeff Bagwell's odds to make the Baseball Hall of Fame".

[Nate Colbert]

Update before tomorrow's announcement...

Coverage beginning at 2:00 CT on MLB Network.

[hostros7]

Well, fuck the Chronicle.  Is this the same guy that came in the GZ in Game 4 to talk about the ALCS?

Jeff Bagwell to make the Hall of Fame, according to early projections


ETA:  He just changed the title of that piece to "Measuring Jeff Bagwell's odds to make the Baseball Hall of Fame".

The author likely isn't in charge of titles, aka "clickbait" as currently employed by media outlets.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Nate Colbert]

Coverage beginning at 2:00 CT on MLB Network.

To clarify: the actual HOF announcement doesn't occur until 5:00 CT.

[ValpoCory]

Update before today's announcement, with an estimated 40.2% of the vote reporting ...

Bagwell was only listed on 10 of the 18 ballots (.556) released yesterday, but he did pick up 2 votes from last year in that group.  He's now picked up 24 changed votes compared to last year.

Piazza looks good to make it.

Griffey -- 100.0% (181 out of 181)
Piazza -- 86.2% (156 / 181)
Bagwell -- 77.3% (140 / 181)
Raines -- 76.2% (138 / 163)

[cougar]

Just saw on Sportscenter that Kurkjian voted for Bagwell, Howard Bryant voted for Griffey, Raines, Mussina, and McGriff, claims that he had to vote based on "personal bias" regarding PEDs (paraphrased).

[ValpoCory]

Assuming Piazza makes it in, that means every single person, in at least the last quarter century, on a Hall of Fame ballot that received between 69.9% and 74.9% of the vote in the previous year's election has made it in that year.     So that's good news for Bagwell next year if he can somehow get in that range today.

Source:  https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYC2Ho7UQAAfM2E.jpg:large

[ValpoCory]

As expected, New England-based ESPN hits Bagwell harshly, with only 11 of 18 votes (61%), while giving Curt Schilling 13 of 18 votes (72%).  On the positive side, Bagwell received just 10 of these 18 votes last year, picking up Jim Caple's vote this year, Bagwell's 25th vote pick up.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14491319/ken-griffey-jr-mike-piazza-tim-raines-elected-espn-2016-baseball-hall-fame-ballot

At least Pedro Gomez is consistent with his anti-Astros stance.

[ValpoCory]

Going through the @notmrthibs spreadsheet, so far, there has only been one person out of 82 with a full ballot who did not vote for Bagwell this year.  So, if he does not get in this year, it won't be because voters just ran out of room. 

Update on this.   Up to 5 voters who voted for 10 players and left Bagwell off.

Shi Davidi (including votes for Griffey and Trammell who won't be on next year's ballot)
Dan Graziano (Griffey, Trammell)
Kevin Kernan (Griffey, Piazza)
George Willis (Griffey, Piazza)
Anonymous (Griffey, Trammell)

[ValpoCory]

Bagwell is at 76.8% right now (149 of 194).  That's an estimated 43.1% of the vote accounted for.

[Sambito Redux]

This should be the year for Jeff.   How can Piazza go in and not Bags?

These writers?  They need to get this right.  It is going to be close apparently.

[ValpoCory]

Last year, Bagwell's non-public vote percentage was 12.1% lower than the public vote percentage.  If that happens again this year,

(76.8% x 43.1%) + (64.7% x 56.9%) = 69.9%

I think his public percentage will drop a little more though, so I'll predict a 1st-ballot-Biggio-esque 68.2% right now for Bagwell's final percentage, which would mean 2017 is possible, but 2018 is likely.

[juliogotay]

Assuming Piazza makes it in, that means every single person, in at least the last quarter century, on a Hall of Fame ballot that received between 69.9% and 74.9% of the vote in the previous year's election has made it in that year.     So that's good news for Bagwell next year if he can somehow get in that range today.

Source:  https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYC2Ho7UQAAfM2E.jpg:large

Interesting stat.

[ValpoCory]

Bagwell is at 76.8% right now (149 of 194).  That's an estimated 43.1% of the vote accounted for.

Bagwell is 5-for-5 since this.    154 of 199 now (77.4%), with ~44.2% of the vote in.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYDqgb4UEAAqoJA.png:large

ETA: Make that 7-for-7.   156 of 201 now (77.6%)  +26 vote pickups.

[Fredia]

i need a drink

[ValpoCory]

Some Canadian sportswriter named Jeff B. just dropped Bagwell from his ballot after voting for him last year, the first to publicly announce that move.   

https://twitter.com/SNJeffBlair/status/684812802171768833

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Some Canadian sportswriter named Jeff B. just dropped Bagwell from his ballot after voting for him last year, the first to publicly announce that move.   

https://twitter.com/SNJeffBlair/status/684812802171768833

People ain't no good.

[Uncle Charlie]

Crap

[Ty in Tampa]

Fuck.

[chuck]

Fucking idiots.

[BudGirl]

so, what was his percentage?

[Ty in Tampa]

No word yet, at least on TV.

[Sambito Redux]

Complete horse hockey

[BudGirl]

71.6% according to mctaggert

[Ty in Tampa]

Bagwell 71.6%. 15 votes shy.

[AtascAstro]

71.6.

15 votes shy

[Sambito Redux]

Not sure I understand how Piazza gets a pass and Bagwell does not (for the against crowd)...

Most everyone I know believes Bags is HoF'er

[The Spleen]

Wow that's a pretty big miss, especially compared to some of the projected vote totals.
He may be in real trouble...

[Ty in Tampa]

Consensus of the TV kooks is that Bagwell is in next year.

[The Spleen]

Not sure I understand how Piazza gets a pass and Bagwell does not (for the against crowd)...

Most everyone I know believes Bags is HoF'er

I don't think it's steroids or rumors of steroids. There's just a lot of writers out there who don't think he was all that good.
I still remember all of the post-mortems that were published on Bagwell after he went down with the serious injury in 2005 and finally retired in 2006.  On the negative side there was lots of talk about "career too short," "no milestones" and "playoff choker and headcase" and very little mention of doping...

[Fredia]

astrodomesyndrom. and dumdiddlydammit

[Lefty]

3 people did not vote for Griffey.  3 people voted for Mike Sweeney.  2 voted for David Eckstein.

[HudsonHawk]

3 people did not vote for Griffey.  3 people voted for Mike Sweeney.  2 voted for David Eckstein.

Most shocking is how little support Jim Edmonds got. I think he's a borderline HOFer, yet failed to stay on the ballot a second year.

[Nate Colbert]

Clemens has "moved on" but apparently decides that doesn't preclude getting into a pissing contest:

"...about an ill-informed player making an asinine statement. The latest coming from a former Blue Jays pitcher. Just to enlighten him, he was accused of using amphetamines by the "strength  coach". You should be very carefull when putting tweets out while not having on the matter at hand."

Apparently this was in response to a Roy Halladay tweet.

Stay classy, Roger.

[Lefty]

Most shocking is how little support Jim Edmonds got. I think he's a borderline HOFer, yet failed to stay on the ballot a second year.

I can't explain why Kent, McGriff and Edgar Martinez are garnering so much more support than Edmonds.

[David in Jackson]

I can't explain why Kent, McGriff and Edgar Martinez are garnering so much more support than Edmonds.

According to Baseball Reference, most similar player to Edmonds: Berkman.

[Lefty]

According to Baseball Reference, most similar player to Edmonds: Berkman.

If Lance Berkman was a GG-level CFer he's a Hall of Famer in my eyes.

[Limey]

I can't explain why Kent, McGriff and Edgar Martinez are garnering so much more support than Edmonds.

Because they weren't showboating asshats?

[ValpoCory]

71.6.

15 votes shy

Bagwell was a big time winner this year.  Just a couple of weeks ago, many thought he'd never get voted in.   Now, it seems extremely likely that he'll get voted in.     I am looking forward to next year already. 

Bagwell has a +25 net vote change for returning voters.  For a 440 voter pool, that means only 5.7% of Bagwell's 15.9% increase this year is attributable to returning voters.  The rest is from the purge.   The voter purge really helped Bagwell and many others.     Good riddance.

[ValpoCory]

One person's take on the next four HOF Classes:

2017: Jeff Bagwell and Tm Raines
2018: Chipper Jones and Trevor Hoffman
2019: Mariano Rivera and Jim Thome
2020: Derek Jeter, Ivan Rodriguez, and Curt Schilling

[ValpoCory]

One of the voters that is being purged next year is Mark Kreidler, who only voted for just 3 people (Griffer, Raines, Hoffman).  So that helps Bagwell.

[ValpoCory]

Update on this.   Up to 5 voters who voted for 10 players and left Bagwell off.

Shi Davidi (including votes for Griffey and Trammell who won't be on next year's ballot)
Dan Graziano (Griffey, Trammell)
Kevin Kernan (Griffey, Piazza)
George Willis (Griffey, Piazza)
Anonymous (Griffey, Trammell)

3 Post-Result additions to this list:
Guy Curtright (voted for Bagwell last year but not this year)  (Griffey, Trammell)
Tony DeMarco (Griffey, Trammell)
Bill Windler (Griffey, McGwire, Piazza, Trammell)

So 8 guys who now all have at least 2 open spots on their ballot.

[Limey]

Assuming Piazza makes it in, that means every single person, in at least the last quarter century, on a Hall of Fame ballot that received between 69.9% and 74.9% of the vote in the previous year's election has made it in that year.     So that's good news for Bagwell next year if he can somehow get in that range today.

Source:  https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYC2Ho7UQAAfM2E.jpg:large

Not to pee in anyone's Cheerios, but doesn't the significant voter purge mean that prior trends are not certain to be repeated in the future?

[ValpoCory]

Not to pee in anyone's Cheerios, but doesn't the significant voter purge mean that prior trends are not certain to be repeated in the future?

It definitely could mean that.  I think it means that next year's gains will be less than this year's gains.   Bagwell, fortunately, no longer needs a large gain.   

Also,

Ryan Thibodaux
‏@NotMrTibbs

The Frank Clines ballot is #262. He thinks it will be his last (http://shepherdexpress.com/article-27068-on-the-road-again.html …).

Frank Clines omitted Bagwell, so glad he's gone.  Even if it's not his last, his ballot this year contained 10 votes, so Bagwell may make his list now that 4 of the people he did vote for are off the ballot.

[Jose Cruz III]

I can't explain why Kent, McGriff and Edgar Martinez are garnering so much more support than Edmonds.

Kent set many offensive records for 2nd basemen. I'm kinda surprised he isn't in. I would vote for McGriff and Edgar before I would vote for Edmonds. That said, I just hope Bags gets in next year.

[Nate Colbert]

Maybe this article in his own newspaper will convince Dan Shaughnessy (one of the louder PED skeptics on Bagwell over the years whose comments were in that Chron article about the "cabal" of New York, Boston and Chicago writers who don't check the box on Baggy) to vote for him next year.

[chuck]

More 2019 than 2016 but I just ran into Mariano Rivera in the grocery store. I don't think anyone else in there knows who the hell he is. I asked the kid bagging by items if he were a baseball fan. He looked at me oddly and said, Not really.

Mariano was in a tank top and he looks a lot like he could take the mound right now and get anyone out he wanted to.

[Reuben]

More 2019 than 2016 but I just ran into Mariano Rivera in the grocery store. I don't think anyone else in there knows who the hell he is. I asked the kid bagging by items if he were a baseball fan. He looked at me oddly and said, Not really.

Mariano was in a tank top and he looks a lot like he could take the mound right now and get anyone out he wanted to.

That's pretty damn cool. Does he hang out with Carlos Lee?

[Limey]

Kent set many offensive records for 2nd basemen.

Including nose hair.

[Nate Colbert]

Deniers will deny, but Derek Jeter now has his own possible link to PEDs.

[VirtualBob]

Including nose hair.

One of the most offensive of all records.