Destiny

[Arky Vaughan]

Because the Rangers and the Angels play each other their final four games, the Astros still hold their destiny in their own hands. That series guarantees that the Rangers and the Angels cannot both run the table.

If the Astros were to finish 2-2, 1-3 or even 0-4, they would nonetheless have a chance to tie for or win the second wild card. At 2-2, the Astros would need the Angels to lose at least 3 and the Twins to lose at least 2 for a tie. At 1-3, they would need the Angels to lose at least 4 and the Twins to lose at least 3. And at 0-4, they would need the Angels to finish 0-5 and the Twins to lose at least 5. I am disregarding the Indians here, but they have not yet been eliminated from the wild card hunt.

If the Astros were to finish 3-1, the only way they would be eliminated is if the Rangers were to finish 2-3 and the Angels were to finish 4-1. Otherwise, they would either tie for the second wild card, win the second wild card or even wind up in a three-way tie for the division. The last scenario would occur if the Astros were to finish 3-1, the Rangers were to finish 1-4 and the Angels were to finish 3-2.

And if the Astros were to finish 4-0, they would secure either the second wild card, a tie for the division or a division title. They would win the division if the Rangers were to finish 1-4 and the Angels were to finish 3-2. They would tie the Rangers for the division if the Rangers were to finish 2-3 and the Angels were to finish 3-2. They would tie the Angels for the division if the Rangers were to finish 1-4 or 0-5 and the Angels were to finish 4-1. There would be a three-way tie for the division if the Astros were to finish 4-0, the Rangers were to finish 2-3 and the Angels were to finish 4-1.

As painful as September has been, the Astros still have the opportunity to get up from the mat and get back into this thing.

[Bench]

Thanks for this.  Last night's game felt like a season killer.

[ValpoCory]

Thanks.   Just win tonight.  I hate losses before off days.  They've happened a lot this year.

And one thing in the Astros favor is the start times of the Saturday games.  Angels/Rangers and Royals/Twins both start at 12:05pm central, and the Astros don't play until 7:10pm central. 

So Houston will have that information.  If McHugh goes Friday, and for some reason by first pitch on Saturday Houston only needs to win one more game to clinch the Wild Card, I could see Hinch gambling and pitching McCullers on normal rest on Saturday, with the goal of keeping Keuchel for the Yankees on Tuesday or pitching him on Sunday if necessary.

Of course, the odds of the Astros "Magic Number" to clinch the 2nd wild card dropping to 1 before the Saturday Astros/D-Backs game is low.  It's 6 right now over the Angels and 5 over the Twins.    So Houston would need to win their next 2 and the Angels drop 3 of their next 4 to drop it to that point.

[Arky Vaughan]

It was therapeutic, although my wife was suspicious as to why I was up until 5 a.m.

[HudsonHawk]

It was therapeutic, although my wife was suspicious as to why I was up until 5 a.m.

Tell her you were watching porn and masturbating.  She'll understand that.  Tell her you were figuring the Astros playoff scenarios, and she'll think you're some kind of nutjob. 

[JimR]

no more Neshek in game situations. he was great until September, but everything he throws is flat now.

[juliogotay]

no more Neshek in game situations. he was great until September, but everything he throws is flat now.

I feel the same way about Kazmir. Wish we could skip him.

[ValpoCory]

It was therapeutic, although my wife was suspicious as to why I was up until 5 a.m.

What are you wearing, "Jake from State Farm"?

[Arky Vaughan]

Tell her you were watching porn and masturbating.  She'll understand that.  Tell her you were figuring the Astros playoff scenarios, and she'll think you're some kind of nutjob.

As long as she doesn't suspect me of looking at Carlos Correa as Wonder Woman, I'm probably not going to get any stranger in her eyes.

[Arky Vaughan]

What are you wearing, "Jake from State Farm"?

I am related to someone who used to "sell extended warranties" over the phone, as she used to describe it to some people. If you ever had any positive illusions about who is sitting at the other end of the line, she would dispel them for you.

[Kit]

Thank you for such a remarkable bit of work there Arky.  And thanks also because I  feel much better about our chances now.  Just win baby!!

[juliogotay]

FanGraphs places Astros odds at 44% of making playoffs after last night.

[homer]

It was Sunday morning, after a disappointing start for Zito on Saturday in a much-hyped game that was supposed to be the final start of his career. Zito wanted back on the mound, and then Melvin called him into his office and simply pointed to Wednesday on a schedule.

“He’s like, ‘How’s this sound?’” Zito said. “My eyes got all big, and I was like, ‘Let’s do it.”

And so the 37-year-old left-hander will get a second chance to make a good last impression.

Zito will take the ball Wednesday against the Angels, taking the start of Sonny Gray, who was shut down with a hip injury.

http://www.csnbayarea.com/athletics/rewind-barry-zito-gets-much-desired-do-over

[NeilT]

http://www.csnbayarea.com/athletics/rewind-barry-zito-gets-much-desired-do-over

Gray has been terrible.

[Navin R Johnson]

I really want to bitch about Zito, but it sound so much like something Drayton would've done....and if the Astros just took care of their own business it wouldn't have mattered.

That being said, imagine the shoe was on the other foot.   If the Yankees were a .5 game behind the Angels right now, think there isn't a bigger outrage and maybe even the league office stepping in?

[homer]

If the Yankees were a .5 game behind the Angels right now, think there isn't a bigger outrage and maybe even the league office stepping in?

Nah. Injury related change to rotation. Shit happens.

[HudsonHawk]

I really want to bitch about Zito, but it sound so much like something Drayton would've done....and if the Astros just took care of their own business it wouldn't have mattered.

That being said, imagine the shoe was on the other foot.   If the Yankees were a .5 game behind the Angels right now, think there isn't a bigger outrage and maybe even the league office stepping in?

I have far more outrage over the Astros' pen than I do over the A's replacement starter.

[Bench]

I have far more outrage over the Astros' pen than I do over the A's replacement starter.

Speaking of which, did Hinch ever explain why he brought in Neshek instead of anyone else last night?

[Navin R Johnson]

Same reason they kept running Carter out there, he was due?

[HudsonHawk]

Speaking of which, did Hinch ever explain why he brought in Neshek instead of anyone else last night?

I haven't heard, but hopefully he didn't go all Matt Williams and say "he's our setup guy" over and over.

[Arky Vaughan]

Updated scenarios:

https://scontent-dfw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/12063841_10153682025454204_4061604321229197990_n.jpg?oh=f47e827e9d0a055d633e1544ae83267b&oe=569AB7C3

[WVastro]

That 2-1 Astros line is awfully intruiging filled with highlighted possibilities

[jbm]

Interesting choice on who to root for this evening.  Like a game theory choice.  I'm foregoing the pot of gold possibility (co-division champs with either Dallas or LA) and going with the better probabilities of post season and thus rooting against LA.

[HudsonHawk]

Geez Arky...your wife must think you watch a TON of porn.

[HudsonHawk]

Interesting choice on who to root for this evening.  Like a game theory choice.  I'm foregoing the pot of gold possibility (co-division champs with either Dallas or LA) and going with the better probabilities of post season and thus rooting against LA.

The pot of gold would be an Astros sweep and an Angels sweep.  That would guarantee a post season spot for the Astros, put the division deciding game at home, and send the Rangers packing. 

[Jacksonian]

The pot of gold would be an Astros sweep and an Angels sweep.  That would guarantee a post season spot for the Astros, put the division deciding game at home, and send the Rangers packing.

If the Astros sweep they're in the playoffs no matter what.

[BizidyDizidy]

Doesn't that table suggest 2-1 guarantees a spot in the playoffs (or at least in play-in games)?

[HudsonHawk]

If the Astros sweep they're in the playoffs no matter what.

Yes, but they only get the division tie breaker at home and punk the Rangers if the Angels also sweep.

[HudsonHawk]

Doesn't that table suggest 2-1 guarantees a spot in the playoffs (or at least in play-in games)?

2-1 does not guarantee a post season spot, regardless of what the table says. 

[Jacksonian]

2-1 does not guarantee a post season spot, regardless of what the table says.

That table is just the division.  It excludes the Twins who would have the same record if they won out complicating the wildcard picture further in that scenario.

[HudsonHawk]

That table is just the division.  It excludes the Twins who would have the same record if they won out complicating the wildcard picture further in that scenario.

Under no circumstances can the Astros clinch the division.  The best they can do is a tie.

[Arky Vaughan]

Sorry, yes, the table excludes the Twins.

[austro]

Sorry, yes, the table excludes the Twins.

Back to the porn room for you.

[homer]

Sorry, yes, the table excludes the Twins.

We already knew that. So get busy.

[ValpoCory]

2-1 does not guarantee a post season spot, regardless of what the table says.

True, but 2-1 will guarantee that Sunday is not the Astros' final game this year.

[ValpoCory]

Doesn't that table suggest 2-1 guarantees a spot in the playoffs (or at least in play-in games)?

No to the playoffs part, yes to the "at least in play-in games" part.

[ValpoCory]

I'm still hoping the Yankees continue to throw up on themselves.  They haven't locked up that 1st wild card yet.  It will get interesting if they lose two more times by the time the Astros are just getting started Friday.

[ValpoCory]

Sorry, yes, the table excludes the Twins.

This website plays out all the scenarios, but doesn't have a nice table like yours though.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB/American/ALWestern/Astros.html

[HudsonHawk]

No to the playoffs part, yes to the "at least in play-in games" part.

2-1 does not guarantee them into the "play in" games.  It guarantees them a tie to get into the play in games, which would require another win. 

[ValpoCory]

2-1 does not guarantee them into the "play in" games.  It guarantees them a tie to get into the play in games, which would require another win.

Yep.  There was some confusion as to what Biz meant by "play-in" game.  Some anecdotally refer to the Wild Card game as the "play-in" game to the "real" playoffs which start in the LDS round.  Sort of like how people call the First Four Round 1 of the NCAA basketball tournament the "play-in" games.

I took "play-in" game to mean the "which would require another win" part of your reply.

Regardless, 2-1 means more baseball for Houston.

[Dark Star]

Geez Arky...your wife must think you watch a TON of porn.

I was thinking the thread title - "Destiny" - was an excellent code name for this.

[MusicMan]

Why isn't the chart 3-D?

Feng shui ain't got shit on Tron, son.

[ValpoCory]

On a side note, in the race for the #1 seed in the AL and the right to play the Wild Card game winner, the Blue Jays lead the Royals by 1 game and have the tiebreaker over the Royals.   The Blue Jays' game has been in a multi-hour delay.  They may call it. 

HH or someone else, would the Blue Jays make up this Orioles game Monday if they finish 1/2 game behind the Royals for the 1 seed?   My first blush is that Monday rain-out make ups are in place if major playoff placement is at stake (out of playoffs/in playoffs, or Wild Card/Division champ), and not something as small as Division Champion seeding when tie breakers are used instead of games.

If they will not make it up, then a rain out today is the same as a loss for the Blue Jays, since their tiebreaker advantage will be useless.

[Bench]

On a side note, in the race for the #1 seed in the AL and the right to play the Wild Card game winner, the Blue Jays lead the Royals by 1 game and have the tiebreaker over the Royals.   The Blue Jays' game has been in a multi-hour delay.  They may call it. 

HH or someone else, would the Blue Jays make up this Orioles game Monday if they finish 1/2 game behind the Royals for the 1 seed?   My first blush is that Monday rain-out make ups are in place if major playoff placement is at stake (out of playoffs/in playoffs, or Wild Card/Division champ), and not something as small as Division Champion seeding when tie breakers are used instead of games.

If they will not make it up, then a rain out today is the same as a loss for the Blue Jays, since their tiebreaker advantage will be useless.

Story

“Our general policy is that if the games are meaningful,’’ MLB vice president Pat Courtney said, “all 162 games have to be played. We will continue to monitor this situation over the last four days of the season.’’

The big question is whether “meaningful’’ translates into home-field advantage.

So, presently there is no answer to that question.

[NeilT]

Story

“Our general policy is that if the games are meaningful,’’ MLB vice president Pat Courtney said, “all 162 games have to be played. We will continue to monitor this situation over the last four days of the season.’’

The big question is whether “meaningful’’ translates into home-field advantage.

So, presently there is no answer to that question.

Bud Selig and the Astros, not meaningful.  Anybody else, meaningful.

[ValpoCory]

Story

“Our general policy is that if the games are meaningful,’’ MLB vice president Pat Courtney said, “all 162 games have to be played. We will continue to monitor this situation over the last four days of the season.’’

The big question is whether “meaningful’’ translates into home-field advantage.

So, presently there is no answer to that question.

Great find Bench.  Thank you.

If somehow the BBGs could find it in their hearts to delay the Wild Card game one day so Keuchel could go on normal rest ....

[HudsonHawk]

On a side note, in the race for the #1 seed in the AL and the right to play the Wild Card game winner, the Blue Jays lead the Royals by 1 game and have the tiebreaker over the Royals.   The Blue Jays' game has been in a multi-hour delay.  They may call it. 

HH or someone else, would the Blue Jays make up this Orioles game Monday if they finish 1/2 game behind the Royals for the 1 seed?   My first blush is that Monday rain-out make ups are in place if major playoff placement is at stake (out of playoffs/in playoffs, or Wild Card/Division champ), and not something as small as Division Champion seeding when tie breakers are used instead of games.

If they will not make it up, then a rain out today is the same as a loss for the Blue Jays, since their tiebreaker advantage will be useless.

As I understand it, MLB has said they'll play out any make up games or tiebreakers with two or more teams competing for the same playoff spot, regardless of whether or not one would still qualify.  In other words, if both teams clinch a wild card, but need to make up a game to determine who wins the division, they will play that out.  But they will not play make up/tie breaker games to determine seeding of the same "level" of qualifying.  In other words, two division winners, or two wild cards tied, they will seed them based on tie breaker rules, not with another game. 

[Bench]

That table is just the division.  It excludes the Twins who would have the same record if they won out complicating the wildcard picture further in that scenario.

The good news is that the Twins will be playing the Royals this weekend who will be eager to try to catch the Blue Jays for home field advantage. 

[David in Jackson]

You know, all this talk about the Orioles, Blue Jays, etc., and watching the Twins, Rangers and A's (for the first time ever in September) filled with tension and rooting for an outcome MIGHT, after 50 years or so, make me like, or at least be comfortable in, the American League.

[ValpoCory]

The pot of gold would be an Astros sweep and an Angels sweep.  That would guarantee a post season spot for the Astros, put the division deciding game at home, and send the Rangers packing.

Exactly.  I feel like I'm playing a emotional game of Skeeball.  That pot of gold 100 point target is so enticing to go for, but the penalty for just missing it could be large.  Should I go conservative and stay up the middle and just root against the Angels?

I think I'm going for the 100 point target.

[HudsonHawk]

Exactly.  I feel like I'm playing a emotional game of Skeeball.  That pot of gold 100 point target is so enticing to go for, but the penalty for just missing it could be large.  Should I go conservative and stay up the middle and just root against the Angels?

I think I'm going for the 100 point target.

There is no penalty for the Astros trying to win.  They have no other choice.  There is no "safe" option. 

[BlownRanger]

The good news is that the Twins will be playing the Royals this weekend who will be eager to try to catch the Blue Jays for home field advantage.

My brother lives in KC.  He says Yost has repeatedly insisted he's not hung up on home-field advantage and is more interested in having the Royals primed for the post-season than he is in where they're playing.  Who knows if that's coach-speak or he really means it.

[Bench]

My brother lives in KC.  He says Yost has repeatedly insisted he's not hung up on home-field advantage and is more interested in having the Royals primed for the post-season than he is in where they're playing.  Who knows if that's coach-speak or he really means it.

Seems like the opposite of coach-speak to me.  You would expect a manager to say "every win matters, home field matters" publicly but private just worry about getting the team ready for the LDS.

[austro]

You know, all this talk about the Orioles, Blue Jays, etc., and watching the Twins, Rangers and A's (for the first time ever in September) filled with tension and rooting for an outcome MIGHT, after 50 years or so, make me like, or at least be comfortable in, the American League.

Yeah, it's just too bad that we won't be playing under AL rules for the most important series of the season, unlike all of the other AL teams that we're competing with for a playoff spot. Thanks Bud.

[Bench]

Yeah, it's just too bad that we won't be playing under AL rules for the most important series of the season, unlike all of the other AL teams that we're competing with for a playoff spot. Thanks Bud.

It will be intriguing to see what Hinch does with Gattis. 

[jbm]

It will be intriguing to see what Hinch does with Gattis.

I for one hope he is not camped out in left.  His bat ain't that special, IMO.

[Bench]

I for one hope he is not camped out in left.  His bat ain't that special, IMO.

I expect Gattis to be a go-to pinch hitter anytime in the game that a situation to maximize his at bat presents itself.  Maybe stay in the game a couple more innings if he's in early and the lineup is turning around.  It will certainly be interesting. 

[Navin R Johnson]

I expect Gattis to be a go-to pinch hitter anytime in the game that a situation to maximize his at bat presents itself.  Maybe stay in the game a couple more innings if he's in early and the lineup is turning around.  It will certainly be interesting. 

That is my thought, after the 1st time through the order, the next big RBI situation that Jake faces you PH Gattis, maybe leave him in if you have a lead for 1 more AB, then bring in someone else to play LF after his 2nd AB. 

[Reuben]

Seems like the opposite of coach-speak to me.  You would expect a manager to say "every win matters, home field matters" publicly but private just worry about getting the team ready for the LDS.

I caught an interview by Jim Rome of Eric Hosmer today, and Hosmer talked at length about them wanting home-field advantage, how the Royals are built to take advantage of their park, etc. He also mentioned that it'll be good to play a team in Minnesota that's still fighting for something, indicating that it might help the Royals get some of their edge back after cruising to the division title.

Of course, Hosmer doesn't decide the rotation. Right now, espn lists the Royals SPs for the Twins series as Chris Young, then Ventura and Cueto. I can't imagine that's who actually pitches those last two games. MIN has Ervin Santana, Tommy Milone, and Undecided.

[JimR]

That is my thought, after the 1st time through the order, the next big RBI situation that Jake faces you PH Gattis, maybe leave him in if you have a lead for 1 more AB, then bring in someone else to play LF after his 2nd AB.

This is very dangerous. EVERY time you try to hide someone, the other side finds him. I would go with defense all the way and PH him.

[Arky Vaughan]

Geez Arky...your wife must think you watch a TON of porn.

I could tell her the game went to extra innings, but she checks the game highlights every morning.

[Arky Vaughan]

I was thinking the thread title - "Destiny" - was an excellent code name for this.

Destiny does Dallas?

[Arky Vaughan]

As I understand it, MLB has said they'll play out any make up games or tiebreakers with two or more teams competing for the same playoff spot, regardless of whether or not one would still qualify.  In other words, if both teams clinch a wild card, but need to make up a game to determine who wins the division, they will play that out.  But they will not play make up/tie breaker games to determine seeding of the same "level" of qualifying.  In other words, two division winners, or two wild cards tied, they will seed them based on tie breaker rules, not with another game.

You mean there'd by no more "co-division champions" that are actually the wild card team?

[das]

who did we say we were rooting for tonight?  I'm conflicted as I look in on the rangers/Angels game...

[austro]

who did we say we were rooting for tonight?  I'm conflicted as I look in on the rangers/Angels game...

There's no way to be conflicted if you watched the interview with the Rangers' asshole fan-of-the-game.

Beltre's bases-loaded double was a killer. It wasn't a bad pitch: it was too much in the middle, but it was well below the bottom of the strike zone. Somehow Beltre went down and pulled it into the LF corner. Fucker. I hope that when he retires the Rangers spend 40 years wandering in the desert looking for a third baseman.

[Jacksonian]

There's no way to be conflicted if you watched the interview with the Rangers' asshole fan-of-the-game.

Beltre's bases-loaded double was a killer. It wasn't a bad pitch: it was too much in the middle, but it was well below the bottom of the strike zone. Somehow Beltre went down and pulled it into the LF corner. Fucker. I hope that when he retires the Rangers spend 40 years wandering in the desert looking for a third baseman.

It ain't over til it's over.

[austro]

It ain't over til it's over.

It's very odd. It seems like when we play the Angels, Trout, Pujols, and Cron are the only three guys who bat. And tonight, other than Pujols' HR, I don't think they came up at all.

[WVastro]

The Astros control their own fate now. This was a good outcome. Playoff(s).

[Arky Vaughan]

Rangers Magic Number to Tie for Division: 0.

Rangers Magic Number to Clinch Division: 1.

Astros Magic Number to Tie for 2nd Wild Card: 2.

Astros Magic Number to Clinch 2nd Wild Card: 3.

[WVastro]

The Rangers won the division when they took game one in Houston last week. I. Am. So. Pumped. That the Astros have a playoff spot that they can earn with three wins this weekend. What badassness!

Happy watching/listening!

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

If Phoenix wins out they finish the season at 81 - 81. Playing spoiler and finishing at .500 is going to motivate the Diamondbacks to not lay down and just play out the season.

[Jacksonian]

If Phoenix wins out they finish the season at 81 - 81. Playing spoiler and finishing at .500 is going to motivate the Diamondbacks to not lay down and just play out the season.

That and being professionals.

[JimR]

That and being professionals.

this, not that.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Getting paid makes them professional. Not giving up on the season and competing to the end is about dedication to values and principles. But whatever. This or that.

[JimR]

Getting paid makes them professional. Not giving up on the season and competing to the end is about dedication to values and principles. But whatever. This or that.

I meant the goal of .500, which is separate from playing hard every game.