Carter a short-timer?

[pots]

From mlbtr

The Astros have had a rough stretch of games on the road, but GM Jeff Luhnow tells the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich that he’s confident due to the quality of pitching he’s received as well as the quality of upper-level players who will join the team in September. The Astros currently have a logjam of corner/DH options that will be magnified by the return of George Springer. As Drellich writes, though, it’s difficult to justify the loss of a player like Chris Carter for little to no return (that is, by way of DFA or waiver claim) when expanded rosters are just under two weeks away.

[subnuclear]

I read that as they will probably not resolve the logjam this season and will just send someone with options down if Springer is ready to play before the expanded roster.

[Jacksonian]

I read that as they will probably not resolve the logjam this season and will just send someone with options down if Springer is ready to play before the expanded roster.

Rosters can be expanded starting September 1.  There is no way Springer returns before then.

[pots]

I read that as they will probably not resolve the logjam this season and will just send someone with options down if Springer is ready to play before the expanded roster.

40 man is full.

But I could see Grossman, Buchanon and Cruz being possible options before Carter

[Jacksonian]

40 man is full.

But I could see Grossman, Buchanon and Cruz being possible options before Carter

All spots on the infield are on a trajectory to be very crowded very quickly with better quality hitters.  Reed and Moran are ripping AA.  And Bregman is on about as fast a track as Correa was.  If all goes well for them next year all three of them could see major league at-bats next year.

[pots]

All spots on the infield are on a trajectory to be very crowded very quickly with better quality hitters.  Reed and Moran are ripping AA.  And Bregman is on about as fast a track as Correa was.  If all goes well for them next year all three of them could see major league at-bats next year.

And Tyler White is still making a mockery of AAA pitching.  I could see him being a September callup.  The thing that might hold him back is I don't think he needs to be added to the 40-man this year.  So you would really have to want his bat should you call him up. 

[juliogotay]

Here is one man's two cents on Carter. http://www.astroscounty.com/2015/08/oh-no-not-more-words-about-chris-carter.html

[Uncle Charlie]

Here is one man's two cents on Carter. http://www.astroscounty.com/2015/08/oh-no-not-more-words-about-chris-carter.html

Interesting take.  What is clear is that Valbuena has effectively taken on the CC 2014 role from what I can tell.  We have two of the same guy.

CC will be gone by December.

[NeilT]

Interesting take.  What is clear is that Valbuena has effectively taken on the CC 2014 role from what I can tell.  We have two of the same guy.

CC will be gone by December.

You're the first person who's ever projected Chris Carter's departure.

[Navin R Johnson]

Luhnow on 790 last night raved about TWhite.  He also made mention that since the Astros are getting production from other spots, having a 300 30 HR 1sts baseman isn't as needed.  He feels that the offense (other than on the road lately) is fine with playing someone who can field the position and bat 7+ in the order.

[Navin R Johnson]

He also mentioned that T White was a different kind of prospect, and that he was a college senior and older.  I get the feeling that White is going to be getting ABs when the rosters expand.

[juliogotay]

Luhnow on 790 last night raved about TWhite.  He also made mention that since the Astros are getting production from other spots, having a 300 30 HR 1sts baseman isn't as needed.  He feels that the offense (other than on the road lately) is fine with playing someone who can field the position and bat 7+ in the order.

I'm not sure how Luhnow can be comfortable with this offense after this recent road trip. I hope White gets a chance. He may be exactly the type of hitter they need more of. I thought his defense was below average though.

[jbm]

He also made mention that since the Astros are getting production from other spots, having a 300 30 HR 1sts baseman isn't as needed.  He feels that the offense (other than on the road lately) is fine with playing someone who can field the position and bat 7+ in the order.

I must be watching a different team.  It's not like they have many positions that are dependably producing offense.

[BudGirl]

It could also be that Luhnow doesn't want to say shitty things about his team.  I have a feeling Ground Control can spit out some information just how "productive" the Astros are when hitting with RISP.

[Jacksonian]

I'm not sure how Luhnow can be comfortable with this offense after this recent road trip. I hope White gets a chance. He may be exactly the type of hitter they need more of. I thought his defense was below average though.

At 3b it's well below average.  1b is fine though I don't know how well he receives difficult throws at the bag.   But he's been DH'ing more than anything else.

[austro]

1b is fine though I don't know how well he receives difficult throws at the bag.

Oh, please. None of our guys ever make throws that are anything less than perfect.

[Navin R Johnson]

I must be watching a different team.  It's not like they have many positions that are dependably producing offense.

The Astros are 5th, out of 30 teams in scoring runs.  2 runs behind the 4th place team and 12 runs out of 3rd.

[pots]

The Astros are 5th, out of 30 teams in scoring runs.  2 runs behind the 4th place team and 12 runs out of 3rd.

Before the road trip they were 3rd

[Navin R Johnson]

Speaking of Singleton.  Since being sent down, In 9 games he is 6 of 32 (.188), 0 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 11Ks.

[OregonStrosFan]

Speaking of Singleton.  Since being sent down, In 9 games he is 6 of 32 (.188), 0 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 11Ks.

And I presume that the previously DFAd (and now Padres pitcher) Bud Norris is still pissed that the Astros robbed Singleton by making him sign that $10M contract...

[austro]

And I presume that the previously DFAd (and now Padres pitcher) Bud Norris is still pissed that the Astros robbed Singleton by making him sign that $10M contract...

That would require a little more contemplation than I think Bud is capable of.

[jbm]

The Astros are 5th, out of 30 teams in scoring runs.  2 runs behind the 4th place team and 12 runs out of 3rd.

Total runs is not a good measure of a good offense.  Consistency is important, as is the ability to manufacture runs in tight games.  It's similar to people looking at the Pythagorean formula to calculate wins.  The team might be under 500 and their reply is "But this stat says they really are good."  Cant rebut that.

[subnuclear]

Rosters can be expanded starting September 1.  There is no way Springer returns before then.

Springer is cleared by the doctors for "baseball things" according to Chandler Rome.

[pots]

Springer is cleared by the doctors for "baseball things" according to Chandler Rome.

like, like a lot

[pots]

Total runs is not a good measure of a good offense.  Consistency is important, as is the ability to manufacture runs in tight games.  It's similar to people looking at the Pythagorean formula to calculate wins.  The team might be under 500 and their reply is "But this stat says they really are good."  Cant rebut that.

You mean like the fact that Oakland is +24 in the run column but 14 games below 500?

[Navin R Johnson]

Total runs is not a good measure of a good offense.  Consistency is important

So in 100 games, it is better to score 3 runs every single game than it is to score 450 total runs?

[jbm]

Not sure what to make of your nonsensical example, but yes, I'd put my money on the team who gets those 4.5 per game with a series of 4,5,4,5,4,5,4,5 than getting it with 10,0,12,1,9,2,2,0.  Especially, if the team has really solid starters and bullpen.

[Lefty]

So in 100 games, it is better to score 3 runs every single game than it is to score 450 total runs?

Stros average a bit over 4.3 runs per game.  If you say they split the games where they allow 4 runs since you can't score 4.3 runs (they're 13-9 in those, so say they go 11-11) If they scored exactly that, they'd be 70- 45.  I just took a quick and basic look at the numbers, but at least for this year's Stros consistency it seems would be better. 

Their record when scoring 4 or more is 52-9

They've yet to win a 1-0 game this year, 0-19 when scoring only 1.  2-10 with 2R, 8-9 with 3.

[MRaup]

Stros average a bit over 4.3 runs per game.  If you say they split the games where they allow 4 runs since you can't score 4.3 runs (they're 13-9 in those, so say they go 11-11) If they scored exactly that, they'd be 70- 45.  I just took a quick and basic look at the numbers, but at least for this year's Stros consistency it seems would be better. 

Their record when scoring 4 or more is 52-9

They've yet to win a 1-0 game this year, 0-19 when scoring only 1.  2-10 with 2R, 8-9 with 3.

But how many games have they won when the other team hasn't scored?!

[cougar]

But how many games have they won when the other team hasn't scored?!

I'll go out on a limb and say at least a majority of them.

[austro]

I'll go out on a limb and say at least a majority of them.

Please show your work.

[drew corleone]

Stros average a bit over 4.3 runs per game.  If you say they split the games where they allow 4 runs since you can't score 4.3 runs (they're 13-9 in those, so say they go 11-11) If they scored exactly that, they'd be 70- 45.  I just took a quick and basic look at the numbers, but at least for this year's Stros consistency it seems would be better. 

Their record when scoring 4 or more is 52-9

They've yet to win a 1-0 game this year, 0-19 when scoring only 1.  2-10 with 2R, 8-9 with 3.

That's meaningless in a vacuum. Where do other top AL teams compare? Because I looked at their per-game scoring a month ago and concluded that outside of Toronto, neither the Yankees or Tigers (only better scoring teams than Houston at the time) were demonstratively "more consistent." By that I mean significantly more 3+ run games and/or fewer times shutout. Sure, you would like to consistently score a good amount of runs per game. And maybe the numbers over the last month show that the Astros have considerably fallen behind in this arena. But the fact is that they still have scored a shitload of runs, and the season is far from over,

[Navin R Johnson]

That's meaningless in a vacuum. Where do other top AL teams compare? Because I looked at their per-game scoring a month ago and concluded that outside of Toronto, neither the Yankees or Tigers (only better scoring teams than Houston at the time) were demonstratively "more consistent." By that I mean significantly more 3+ run games and/or fewer times shutout. Sure, you would like to consistently score a good amount of runs per game. And maybe the numbers over the last month show that the Astros have considerably fallen behind in this arena. But the fact is that they still have scored a shitload of runs, and the season is far from over,

Insert nodding head animated gif here.

[Lefty]

That's meaningless in a vacuum.

Of course it is.  I was bored and tired of being out in the heat. 

[Fredia]

speaking of heat you should hear my son in  laws argument on why there is no ac for the rangers, he has this whole well laid out argument,, btw he is a lawyer . go figure

[juliogotay]

speaking of heat you should hear my son in  laws argument on why there is no ac for the rangers, he has this whole well laid out argument,, btw he is a lawyer . go figure

What is his hypothesis?

[NeilT]

What is his hypothesis?

Maybe he's confused about the whole "bring the heat" thing.

[Reuben]

What is his hypothesis?

That Air Conditioning is a pointless waste of money and energy at an outdoor stadium?

[MRaup]

What is his hypothesis?

Rangers brass, much like their fan base, are fucking idiots.

[austro]

Rangers brass, much like their fan base, are fucking idiots.

I'm sure they think it's some sort of home-field advantage. Although they might reconsider that position if they bothered to think about the number of games each of their opponents plays in that furnace as opposed to the number of games their own team plays there.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

I'm sure they think it's some sort of home-field advantage. Although they might reconsider that position if they bothered to think about the number of games each of their opponents plays in that furnace as opposed to the number of games their own team plays there.

That and the fact that the weather changes in September and October.

[pots]

Tyler White has got to be making the brass wonder if they should wait till September. 

[Reuben]

Tyler White has got to be making the brass wonder if they should wait till September.

I've noticed that too. His AVG "fell" to about .365 recently, but he's brought it up again. And there's this:

FRESNO, Calif. - Fresno Grizzlies (74-48) first baseman Tyler White improved his batting average with runners on base to .500 (39-78)

That's... good, right?

[Jacksonian]

Tyler White has got to be making the brass wonder if they should wait till September.

One rookie with no MLB experience isn't going to make a difference.  The only player currently contributing offensively on a consistent basis is Altuve.  Everyone else is contributing either very sporadically or not at all.  They need 2 or 3 more regulars to start hitting better again.

[NeilT]

It seems a little harsh not to peg Correa as pretty consistent.

[Jacksonian]

It seems a little harsh not to peg Correa as pretty consistent.

When you're walked as much as he has been it's hard contribute at the plate.

[NeilT]

When you're walked as much as he has been it's hard contribute at the plate.

Well, a walk's a contribution.  There's just no one behind him to make teams pay for walking him.

[pots]

One rookie with no MLB experience isn't going to make a difference.  The only player currently contributing offensively on a consistent basis is Altuve.  Everyone else is contributing either very sporadically or not at all.  They need 2 or 3 more regulars to start hitting better again.

Wasn't trying to paint him as some sort of savior.  But he could make a difference.  Anyone of them can make a difference.  MLB experience is not required to make a difference.  The guy is swinging a hot bat.  Carter has a lot of his playing time.  Carter seems destined to a path of release prior to arbitration.  Not a whole lot lost cutting bait with him now.   Also removing him from the 40-man now while he is still owed a million this year might allow you to keep him in the minors.     At minimum they save a million. 

[juliogotay]

It seems a little harsh not to peg Correa as pretty consistent.

Rasmus has had some big hits lately and Marwin contributes, it seems, whenever he is given an opportunity.

[hostros7]

Carter seems destined to a path of release prior to arbitration.  Not a whole lot lost cutting bait with him now.   

They might be holding on to him in hopes of a rebate in arbitration.


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[hostros7]

Seriously though, I doubt they DFA him.  Carter power doesn't grow on trees, and you'd feel like a fool if a competitor picked him up and his bat heated up.  More importantly, it might cost the team a postseason spot.  Maybe they try to pass him through waivers and trade him for cash to a non-contender?  Don't know if that's a realistic option.  You need only look at the careers of guys like Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis to see that Chris Carter types still get ABs and have value, even on decent to good teams.


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[pots]

They might be holding on to him in hopes of a rebate in arbitration.


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Does that happen?

[hostros7]

Does that happen?

No


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[Fredia]

call me confused

[BudGirl]

Seriously though, I doubt they DFA him.  Carter power doesn't grow on trees, and you'd feel like a fool if a competitor picked him up and his bat heated up.  More importantly, it might cost the team a postseason spot.  Maybe they try to pass him through waivers and trade him for cash to a non-contender?  Don't know if that's a realistic option.  You need only look at the careers of guys like Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis to see that Chris Carter types still get ABs and have value, even on decent to good teams.


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for how long does the bat stayed heated.  3 years, maybe, the end of the season and then it goes cold again, I don't think that would bother me.  And I don't make the decisions, so eh.

[Reuben]

for how long does the bat stayed heated
by Budgirl

for how long does the bat stayed heated. 

3 years,
maybe, the end of the season

and then


          it goes cold again,

I
don't think
that would bother
me. 

And
I
don't make the decisions,

                                               so eh.

[Knoxbanedoodle]

*Knoxbanedoodle ovates Reuben standing, throws roses onto the stage, shouts enthusiastic hoorays in a variety of languages*

[chuck]

I'm going to read everyone's GZ posts tonight in what I imagine to be their poetry voice, you know, loaded with inappropriate pauses and idiotic inflections.

[geezerdonk]

And order the large cappuccino. 

[NeilT]

for how long does the bat stayed heated
by Budgirl

for how long does the bat stayed heated. 

3 years,
maybe, the end of the season

and then


          it goes cold again,

I
don't think
that would bother
me. 

And
I
don't make the decisions,

                                               so eh.

That's a thing of beauty

[geezerdonk]

What if Carter were to be thinking about White's stats and not watch where he is going and accidentally fall and hurt himself and wind up on the disabled list?

[kevwun]

White doesn't strikeout much and the lineup in the future could use that.  Hopefully he can make the transition.

[Navin R Johnson]

Hinch on Marwin: "He gets to play tomorrow. Not sure which position, but he's earned it."

While I hate losing his versatility off the bench, at this point in the season you have to put your best players in the field.   I'd like to see Marwin starting at least 4 out of every 5 games.   Let Valbuean/Gattis platoon at DH.

[VirtualBob]

call me confused

What?  And have someone call Cabrera on us?

[pots]

What?  And have someone call Cabrera on us?

It's like the pot calling itself black

[Andyzipp]

call me confused

You could have posted this exact same thing 5822 posts ago, and it would still be just as accurate.

[HudsonHawk]

Last night was another example of Carter's worthlessness.  You're getting dominated, not managing to get anything going, but down to your last handful of outs, it's still only a 1-0 game.  You know you're not going to string together three or four hits against Archer, but you still have that puncher's chance.  Maybe Archer makes a mistake on pitch 95, maybe you get that one good swing to tie it up.  You need a guy who can go up there, make a pitcher pitch, and if he gets that mistake can hammer it.  If Carter is not that guy, it's reason number umpteen thousand why he's pointless. 

[pots]

Last night was another example of Carter's worthlessness.  You're getting dominated, not managing to get anything going, but down to your last handful of outs, it's still only a 1-0 game.  You know you're not going to string together three or four hits against Archer, but you still have that puncher's chance.  Maybe Archer makes a mistake on pitch 95, maybe you get that one good swing to tie it up.  You need a guy who can go up there, make a pitcher pitch, and if he gets that mistake can hammer it.  If Carter is not that guy, it's reason number umpteen thousand why he's pointless.

I thought the lack of use in a 13 inning affair the night before was pretty telling.  Historically he has been horrendous pinch hitting.  Only 30 PAs but it's about as bad as it comes.  045/233/182

I'm guessing he's pretty much just going to see starts against lefties for a while.  And that's only because Valbueana is not good against them.  Marwin is though. 

[JimR]

Last night was another example of Carter's worthlessness.  You're getting dominated, not managing to get anything going, but down to your last handful of outs, it's still only a 1-0 game.  You know you're not going to string together three or four hits against Archer, but you still have that puncher's chance.  Maybe Archer makes a mistake on pitch 95, maybe you get that one good swing to tie it up.  You need a guy who can go up there, make a pitcher pitch, and if he gets that mistake can hammer it.  If Carter is not that guy, it's reason number umpteen thousand why he's pointless.

he looks totally lost at the plate. too much thinking, perhaps, instead of simply "see the ball, hit the ball."

[HudsonHawk]

he looks totally lost at the plate. too much thinking, perhaps, instead of simply "see the ball, hit the ball."

This is where I can tolerate Gattis's approach sometimes.  He frustrates the hell out of me sometimes because he swings at so many bad pitches, but in some situations, you need a guy who goes up there with the attitude of "I don't give a shit about working an at bat, if that ball comes within three feet of me, I'm gonna smack it".  Not that you want him to swing at bad pitches, but you want that aggressiveness.  Carter simply does not have it.

[subnuclear]

Here is a nice post at AstrosCounty about Chris Carter. To summarize, they succeeded in making him less of a pull-hitter and get pitchers to throw him more strikes, but they lost the thing he was really good at which was explosive power.

[Reuben]

Here is a nice post at AstrosCounty about Chris Carter. To summarize, they succeeded in making him less of a pull-hitter and get pitchers to throw him more strikes, but they lost the thing he was really good at which was explosive power.

And hitting fastballs. He used to be good at that but terrible vs. sliders. Now he doesn't chase so many sliders, but I think his AVG vs. fastballs is something like .144, unsurprisingly the worst in MLB.

[das]

And hitting fastballs. He used to be good at that but terrible vs. sliders. Now he doesn't chase so many sliders, but I think his AVG vs. fastballs is something like .144, unsurprisingly the worst in MLB.

There was a decent thread here in the TZ last year that discussed Carters power specifics. What struck me is that large numbers of his HR's were eking over the wall instead of mammoth blasts to the upper deck. A sharp hit to a mediocre slider that he gets under sure sounds like a warning track shot instead of out relative to a sharp hit to a fastball in that circumstance.