Astros in the Top Half in 2015?

[ValpoCory]

ESPN.com's David Schoenfield thinks so.

15. Houston Astros

Big offseason moves: Hired A.J. Hinch as manager; signed SS Jed Lowrie and RHPs Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek; acquired 3B Luis Valbuena and RHP Dan Straily from the Cubs for CF Dexter Fowler; acquired C Evan Gattis and RHP James Hoyt from the Braves for RHP Michael Foltynewicz, 3B Rio Ruiz and RHP Andrew Thurman; signed OF Colby Rasmus.

Most intriguing player: George Springer. I had him in this spot last year and put him here again. Breakout potential remains large. Note: Most fun player remains Jose Altuve.

Due for a better year: The bullpen. Gregerson and Neshek should help a pen that had the worst ERA in the majors and the second-most blown saves.

Due for a worse year: Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh are the logical candidates, although I like both pitchers to come close to their 2014 results.

I'm just the messenger: There's an obvious concern here: It's Altuve and a Costco warehouse of strikeouts. Springer, Chris Carter and Gattis may combine for 90 home runs and nearly 600 strikeouts, which could push the lineup into prolonged slumps of whiffs and scoreless innings.

The final word: I like the Astros more than most -- calling them the surprise team of 2015 -- and pointed out that they had the worst production in the majors last year at first base, third base and left field. So improvement at those positions will be vital. Yes, a lot is riding on Keuchel and McHugh to be very good again but I believe they will be. The Astros' plan is coming together, augmented with some free-agent signings, and they're going to be competitive for the first time in years.

Prediction: 83-79

[subnuclear]

Luhnow said they would have a winning record. That would be neat.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

He's way over-rating the FTC.  Bryant and Lester aren't enough to get them into the playoffs. 

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

13. Chicago Cubs

Big offseason moves: Hired Joe Maddon as manager; signed free-agent LHP Jon Lester; signed RHP Jason Hammel; acquired C Miguel Montero from the Diamondbacks for RHP Jeferson Mejia and RHP Zack Godley; traded OF Justin Ruggiano to the Mariners for RHP Matt Brazis; acquired CF Dexter Fowler from the Rockies for 3B Luis Valbuena and RHP Dan Straily; signed OF Chris Denorfia.

Oh, really.

[austro]

Oh, really.

His helicopter, the helicopter in front of him, a helicopter in the convoy in front of him, really, what's the difference?

[BlownRanger]

He's way over-rating the FTC.  Bryant and Lester aren't enough to get them into the playoffs. 

When evaluating predictions, it's helpful to consider two traits owned by everyone, even those paid to prognosticate:

1)  Everyone is biased;

2)  Everyone is very good at convincing themselves that what they would like to see happen is also what they think will happen.

That's why the Cubs offseason is annually raved about and always thought to include the perfect moves to produce a contender.

What's interesting is how much OW goes against this generalization.  Most posters around here are very cautious with their Astros crystal ball.

[geezerdonk]

Oh, really.

Astros are a non-team.

[das]

Astros are a non-team.

They're just renting 4th place.

[Fredia]

till they buy 1st

[VirtualBob]

Oh, really.

Rockies  ??  #ignore

[Texifornia]

They're just renting 4th place.

Is that Lasorda's prediction?