Author Topic: Welcome Luke Gregerson  (Read 10406 times)

pots

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Welcome Luke Gregerson
« on: December 10, 2014, 08:32:17 am »
Signed Luke Gregerson for 3 years 18.5 million  (more info on deal)

Apparently 3 million extra in incentives.


One reliever to go
« Last Edit: December 10, 2014, 08:37:48 am by pots »

subnuclear

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2014, 08:51:20 am »
Excellent. Hopefully they won't stop there.

roadrunner

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #2 on: December 10, 2014, 08:55:45 am »
"closing in" on Neshek, too

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #3 on: December 10, 2014, 08:59:45 am »
Signed Luke Gregerson for 3 years 18.5 million  (more info on deal)

Apparently 3 million extra in incentives.


One reliever to go

Those are "bonuses", btw.  MLB frowns upon "incentives". 
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #4 on: December 10, 2014, 09:20:06 am »
"closing in" on Neshek, too

Would be two-year deal, according to Bob Nightengale.  Fields, Sipp, Qualls, Neshek, Gregerson; I'll start a bullpen with that.

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #5 on: December 10, 2014, 09:20:24 am »
Neshek deal done.


roadrunner

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #6 on: December 10, 2014, 09:21:30 am »
Would be two-year deal, according to Bob Nightengale.  Fields, Sipp, Qualls, Neshek, Gregerson; I'll start a bullpen with that.

Let's take bets on which of those guys will actually be in the bullpen come September 2015. 

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #7 on: December 10, 2014, 09:34:55 am »
This has the makings of a very decent pen.  Especially if they add Veras back in the mix.  Even Chapman did well last year once he quit walking everyone and their brother.

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #8 on: December 10, 2014, 09:36:27 am »
Let's take bets on which of those guys will actually be in the bullpen come September 2015. 
Sipp and Qualls are FAs after the season, so I could see them possibly being traded at the deadline, if they're clearly out of the race, but I can't see any of the other 3 going anywhere.
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subnuclear

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #9 on: December 10, 2014, 09:40:53 am »
Sipp and Qualls are FAs after the season, so I could see them possibly being traded at the deadline, if they're clearly out of the race, but I can't see any of the other 3 going anywhere.

The cool people on Twitter think they are just signing these people to trade them for prospects.

I haven't anyone say if we officially got Neshek yet.

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #10 on: December 10, 2014, 09:50:44 am »
Heyman saying it's official. No word on terms yet.

Looked up Neshek. Even though he's a sidearmer RHP, lefties only hit .196 off him this year. Righties hit .176.
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2014, 09:51:39 am »
Heyman saying it's official. No word on terms yet.

Looked up Neshek. Even though he's a sidearmer RHP, lefties only hit .196 off him this year. Righties hit .176.

Word is that it's a 2-year deal for about $10MM.  But nothing official yet.
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #12 on: December 10, 2014, 09:52:29 am »
Gregerson, Neshek and Qualls were all in the 2011 Friars bullpen. 
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #13 on: December 10, 2014, 09:52:41 am »
Seeing Neshek for 2 years/12.5M pending physical.

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #14 on: December 10, 2014, 09:57:05 am »
Let's add Crain and Albers just to be on the safe side.


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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #15 on: December 10, 2014, 10:00:09 am »
Seeing Neshek for 2 years/12.5M pending physical.

Wow, for Gregerson and Neshek, that's over $12MM/year for one inning of middle relief.  I guess $12MM doesn't go as far as it used to. 
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #16 on: December 10, 2014, 10:02:57 am »
Wow, for Gregerson and Neshek, that's over $12MM/year for one inning of middle relief.  I guess $12MM doesn't go as far as it used to. 
"one inning of middle relief?" I don't understand. I'd expect each of them to pitch 65-70 innings in setup or closer roles. But no, $12MM doesn't go as far as it used to, that's a fact.
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roadrunner

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #17 on: December 10, 2014, 10:03:08 am »
Wow, for Gregerson and Neshek, that's over $12MM/year for one inning of middle relief.  I guess $12MM doesn't go as far as it used to. 

Not sure what you're saying, but that's $12M over 2 years.

I don't hate these deals, it's just hard to get excited about middle relievers...especially after Crain and Albers last year.

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #18 on: December 10, 2014, 10:04:22 am »
Not sure what you're saying, but that's $12M over 2 years.

But they have to pay them both.  The Astros can't just pick one to pay. 

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #19 on: December 10, 2014, 10:09:19 am »
"one inning of middle relief?" I don't understand. I'd expect each of them to pitch 65-70 innings in setup or closer roles. But no, $12MM doesn't go as far as it used to, that's a fact.

I'm not sure why you'd expect that.  Neither have averaged an inning per appearance, neither have been closers.  I expect 120 appearances/100 innings combined.  But I applaud your optimism. 
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #20 on: December 10, 2014, 10:14:42 am »
"one inning of middle relief?" I don't understand. I'd expect each of them to pitch 65-70 innings in setup or closer roles. But no, $12MM doesn't go as far as it used to, that's a fact.

Nor will it go as far next year.

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #21 on: December 10, 2014, 10:20:37 am »
But they have to pay them both.  The Astros can't just pick one to pay. 



oh, you're assuming they will combine to provide 1 inning of middle relief

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #22 on: December 10, 2014, 10:23:37 am »
McTaggTweet:  When asked what role he would play in the bullpen, Neshek told me: "I really don't care."

I wonder if he intends to just grind?

It will be delightful to have a professional bullpen.  It's been a long time.
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #23 on: December 10, 2014, 10:26:38 am »
I'm just glad that neither guy is an injury reclamation project or a Rule 5 lottery ticket.
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #24 on: December 10, 2014, 10:28:29 am »
I'm not sure why you'd expect that.  Neither have averaged an inning per appearance, neither have been closers.  I expect 120 appearances/100 innings combined.  But I applaud your optimism. 
I'm not sure why you'd expect that, barring injury. Gregerson has averaged 66 IP per season, and 4 times has thrown 71-78 IP. Neshek had 67 IP this year, and I'm assuming some injuries earlier in his career kept his innings down. You're absolutely right that he hasn't averaged an inning per appearance, though - only .95 innings per appearance. Shit.

Gregerson has 19 career Saves. Neshek saved 6 this year. And it certainly wouldn't be the first time in recent years that the Astros turned a non-closer into a closer.
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #25 on: December 10, 2014, 10:31:44 am »
McTaggTweet:  When asked what role he would play in the bullpen, Neshek told me: "I really don't care."

I wonder if he intends to just grind?

It will be delightful to have a professional bullpen.  It's been a long time.


If I went from being a league minimum mop-up man to a $12MM at the end of my career, I wouldn't really worry about my role either. 
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #26 on: December 10, 2014, 10:37:19 am »
I'm not sure why you'd expect that, barring injury. Gregerson has averaged 66 IP per season, and 4 times has thrown 71-78 IP. Neshek had 67 IP this year, and I'm assuming some injuries earlier in his career kept his innings down.

Mainly because I don't expect they'll pitch at the same time.  They'll share appearances and innings on this team.

Quote

Gregerson has 19 career Saves. Neshek saved 6 this year. And it certainly wouldn't be the first time in recent years that the Astros turned a non-closer into a closer.

I'm not saying it's impossible one of them will be a closer, I'm saying I think it's optimistic to assume they will.   
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #27 on: December 10, 2014, 10:41:17 am »
The guys on MLBTV really like Gregerson. They like that he throws strikes and has guts. Heyman said his slider was excellent and reminded him of Larry Andersen.

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #28 on: December 10, 2014, 10:50:45 am »
Mainly because I don't expect they'll pitch at the same time.  They'll share appearances and innings on this team.

Share, in what way? They're both RH.
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #29 on: December 10, 2014, 11:06:50 am »
Share, in what way? They're both RH.

I just don't think there will be 70+ innings for both of those guys, especially if one ends up closing.  That would be Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman in their best years type of innings.  I may be wrong. 
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #30 on: December 10, 2014, 11:16:55 am »
According to McTaggart, Neshek had offers of 2-year deals from 8 different teams and was about to sign with the Pirates before Houston upped its offer at the last minute.

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #31 on: December 10, 2014, 12:12:39 pm »
Crasnick re Neshek contract details:

$5.5MM for 2015, $6.5MM for 2016, $0.5MM buyout on club option for 2017. The club option for 2017 is for $6.5MM to $9MM (amount determined by number of games finished in preceding 2 years).

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #32 on: December 10, 2014, 12:34:46 pm »
The guys on MLBTV really like Gregerson. They like that he throws strikes and has guts. Heyman said his slider was excellent and reminded him of Larry Andersen.


Does this mean the Astros trade him to the Red Sox for the equivalent of Jeff Bagwell?
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #33 on: December 10, 2014, 12:35:52 pm »
has my vote
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Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #34 on: December 10, 2014, 12:54:31 pm »
He may be immature.
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #35 on: December 10, 2014, 01:40:15 pm »
He may be immature.

But he's got guts, and guts is enough!
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #36 on: December 10, 2014, 01:56:20 pm »
I can't think of anyplace they could have spent that money better.  With what they had last year, that's a pretty good pen.
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #37 on: December 10, 2014, 02:01:08 pm »
I'm not sure why you'd expect that.  Neither have averaged an inning per appearance, neither have been closers.  I expect 120 appearances/100 innings combined.  But I applaud your optimism. 

To be fair, they've averaged quite close to a full inning per appearance over the last two years - 0.945 innings per appearance.  In other words, if you add them together you should get 1 2/3 reasonably well.
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #38 on: December 10, 2014, 02:08:06 pm »
Fields and Qualls both pitched around 50 IP last year. I expect the new guys and Qualls and Fields and Sipp to average between 40-50 IP with Veras and whoever else in the 30 range.

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #39 on: December 10, 2014, 03:31:49 pm »
I like the pick-ups. Both of these guys are real solid .....and we didn't lose any young starting pitching or anybody for that matter (ie we're finally spending some $ to improve)
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #40 on: December 10, 2014, 04:20:53 pm »
To be fair, they've averaged quite close to a full inning per appearance over the last two years - 0.945 innings per appearance.  In other words, if you add them together you should get 1 2/3 reasonably well.

Why would you add them together?  They're essentially filling the same role.  I don't see either of them closing, and neither in a longer relief role.  Both are going to be a late innings guy, probably lifted for a lefty.  I don't see either closing.  It's not that I mind either of them, I just don't see that many innings for that role. 
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HudsonHawk

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #41 on: December 10, 2014, 04:23:01 pm »
Fields and Qualls both pitched around 50 IP last year. I expect the new guys and Qualls and Fields and Sipp to average between 40-50 IP with Veras and whoever else in the 30 range.

Exactly.  I don't see 140+ innings between the two of them, unless Hinch really grinds the pen.  I certainly hope that's not the case.
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #42 on: December 10, 2014, 04:49:43 pm »
Re: Who will close? -- AP reports that both Gregerson and Neshek have clauses in their contracts based on how many games they finish, and the Chronicle (I know, I know) writes that competition for roles is expected in the spring:

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2014/12/10/astros-closer-chad-qualls-welcomes-gregerson-neshek-and-competition/#28085101=0

The 2005 Astros has 70-80 innings each from Qualls/Wheeler/Lidge, which worked pretty well...
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #43 on: December 10, 2014, 05:26:57 pm »
Let's be honest, one of them will probably suck or get hurt so it's nice to have both rather than relying on AAAA guys.

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #44 on: December 10, 2014, 05:30:08 pm »
Why would you add them together?  They're essentially filling the same role.  I don't see either of them closing, and neither in a longer relief role.  Both are going to be a late innings guy, probably lifted for a lefty.  I don't see either closing.  It's not that I mind either of them, I just don't see that many innings for that role. 

It's nice to have more than one late inning "fireman" type guy.  One could argue it's a luxury the Astros don't need at this point, but it should help the starting pitching morale and development and turn a few Ls from last year into Ws.  Not that this bullpen is going to resemble KC's from last season,  but it was fun to watch those postseason games and see the opposing team start to pucker up in the 6th and 7th while feeling the window to catch up seem to begin to close.

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #45 on: December 10, 2014, 05:39:26 pm »
Fields and Qualls both pitched around 50 IP last year. I expect the new guys and Qualls and Fields and Sipp to average between 40-50 IP with Veras and whoever else in the 30 range.
Qualls and Fields both missed time with injury, Sipp joined the team in May or so and still had 50 IP. Veras joined the team in July or so and pitched 32.

I'm not sure why I care enough to go into this, but the innings you expect simply wouldn't work for a modern pitching staff. You've got 7 relief spots, and 5 starters. If Veras and the 7th guy each throw 30 innings, and Gregerson, Neshek, Qualls, Fields and Sipp average 40-50 (so let's say 45), that's only 285 innings total from the 7 bullpen spots. Obviously there will be more than 7 guys over the course of the year, due to injuries, demotions, etc., but I assume you're not counting injuries; you and HH are just talking about expected usage of each pitcher based on need/ability/durability, correct?

The Astros staff threw 1,438 innings this year - just under 9 per game. If the 7 reliever spots only have 285 combined IP, that means the 5 rotation spots need to average 230 innings each, which is over 7 IP per start. That's simply not going to happen in this day and age (Keuchel, even with 5 CGs, averaged just under 7 per start, Feldman and McHugh, just under 6 and 1/3).

So the bullpen needs to pitch about 450-475 innings, even if the starters average 6 IP per start. That means the 7 relief spots average 66 IP each. You figure you might get a little more out of a long man, but in general, the better relievers on the team are going to have to pitch 60-70 IP each, barring injury.

Bottom line, there will be plenty of innings for Gregerson and Neshek if they're healthy. Nobody's expecting them to be Mike Marshall, but we should absolutely expect them to rack up 60-70 innings.
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #46 on: December 10, 2014, 07:09:28 pm »
The 2005 Astros has 70-80 innings each from Qualls/Wheeler/Lidge, which worked pretty well...

I expect a lot more mop up duty for this Astros team than that one.  I hope I'm wrong. 
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #47 on: December 10, 2014, 07:12:37 pm »
Gregerson has averaged 66 IP a season over 6 seasons and Neshek pitched 67 last year, but has only pitched that many 1 time before. Maybe I was low-balling a bit, by looking at the Astros relievers.  

In any case, twitter people are saying that the Astros are looking for a mid-rotation starter and another bullpen arm (Veras, maybe).

Still wondering why we traded Tropeano, but maybe we need three catchers like King Crimson needed three drummers.

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #48 on: December 10, 2014, 07:16:44 pm »
I assume you're not counting injuries; you and HH are just talking about expected usage of each pitcher based on need/ability/durability, correct?

Correct.

Quote
That means the 7 relief spots average 66 IP each. You figure you might get a little more out of a long man, but in general, the better relievers on the team are going to have to pitch 60-70 IP each, barring injury.

They're gonna need more than 5 starters and a hell of a lot more than 7 relief pitchers over the course of the year.  Hopefully, not 10 and 19 like last year, but it's REALLY optimistic to think they'll go through the whole season with the exact same 7 relievers they have on Opening Day. 
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #49 on: December 10, 2014, 07:42:16 pm »
would be nice tho. how would you address the situation
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #50 on: December 10, 2014, 08:21:32 pm »
Still wondering why we traded Tropeano, but maybe we need three catchers like King Crimson needed three drummers.

I think Molly Hatchet and their three guitar players is a more apt analogy.
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Reuben

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #51 on: December 10, 2014, 08:23:55 pm »
Correct.

They're gonna need more than 5 starters and a hell of a lot more than 7 relief pitchers over the course of the year.  Hopefully, not 10 and 19 like last year, but it's REALLY optimistic to think they'll go through the whole season with the exact same 7 relievers they have on Opening Day. 

Of course. Like I said,
...
Obviously there will be more than 7 guys over the course of the year, due to injuries, demotions, etc., but I assume you're not counting injuries; you and HH are just talking about expected usage of each pitcher based on need/ability/durability, correct?

"Come check us out in the Game Zone. We don’t bite. Unless you say something idiotic." -Mr. Happy

Reuben

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #52 on: December 10, 2014, 08:33:03 pm »
I think Molly Hatchet and their three guitar players is a more apt analogy.
When Brett Gurewitz quit Bad Religion to babysit the Offspring and rake in the money running Epitaph records, they brought in a new 2nd guitarist - former Minor Threat member Brian Baker. Years later, Mr. Brett decided he missed being in the band, so he rejoined. Greg Hetson, the other guitarist, had been with the band since the early 80's, so he wasn't going anywhere, and apparently Baker was happy, so... they were a simple little straightforward punk band with three guitar players.

I think that was around the time I lost interest, coincidentally, so I can't say what it sounded like.
"Come check us out in the Game Zone. We don’t bite. Unless you say something idiotic." -Mr. Happy

Dark Star

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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #53 on: December 11, 2014, 08:42:31 am »
I believe the Allman Brothers led the league in multiple (not to say redundant) instrumentalists for a few years there.

But that was, like, back in the '70s, man
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Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson
« Reply #54 on: December 14, 2014, 08:24:24 pm »
butch & jaimoe and dickey & duane = magic
Remember Jesus Alou being called out of the 1st base coaching box to pinch-hit a double vs. the Reds in '79 I think, to win a crucial game, and he patted Morgan on top of the head (ala Benny Hill w/the little bald guy) and Little Joe got pissed.....yeah,that was great.