Maybe not a nincompoop. Maybe a poor evaluator of his own speed.
That's an interesting comment. In 2008, Lee stole base 4 times, and was caught stealing once. Michael Bourn stole 41 bases and was caught stealing 10 times. They were exactly the same baserunner. Hunter Pence, Miguel Tejada, and Brad Ausmus all had worse caught stealing ratios than Lee, and Kaz Matsui was the same. Lance Berkman looks like the best on the team with 4 CS on 22 attempts.
In 2007 Lee was far worse, leading the team w/ 5 CS for 10 steals, but Pence was 5 for 11, Berkman 7 for 3, Bruntlett 6 for 3, and Adam Everett 4 for 2. The best was Brad Ausmus at 6 for 1, then Chris Burke at 9 for 3. The worst was Craig Biggio at 4 for 3.
It looked like at his best Bourn was very good and so was Kaz Matsui. The Astros best recent year on the basepaths was 2012 when Altuve Schafer and Bogusevic combined for 75 steals, but Lee was 0 for 0. Pence didn't start his career as a good baserunner but by 2010 was 18 for 9. Lee was about as good as Berkman after Berkman's knee injury, but never had a lot of attempts, which probably showed good evaluation of his own speed. Maybe you mean he got caught a lot trying to leg out triples?