Carter

[JimR]

I try not to say "I told you so" except when I want to so...I told you boys and girls last year we should not give up on Carter.

[NeilT]

I try not to say "I told you so" except when I want to so...I told you boys and girls last year we should not give up on Carter.

We're just lucky the Astros listened to you and not us.  If he keeps this up, it will be one of the most astounding coming togethers since Koufax.

[Mr. Happy]

I try not to say "I told you so" except when I want to so...I told you boys and girls last year we should not give up on Carter.

While I wasn't necessarily as ready to DFA Carter and move on as some others, the thought had crossed my mind. I learned my lesson on Keuchel, even though I am still fairly confident that Keuchel is a 4 on his best day and that's if his command is perfect. I guess that you just can't give up on someone with so much raw power. Anyone who can combine a Golden sombrero and a game winning three run shibby in the ninth inning gets my respect.

[juliogotay]

I try not to say "I told you so" except when I want to so...I told you boys and girls last year we should not give up on Carter.

I recall you did so.

[NeilT]

Here's some stuff about Carter's August.  He led MLB with 9 home runs.  With 70 ABs, he had 21 SOs, which is the same number as Mike Trout.  He's had a .329 BA, a .351 OBP, and a .456 SLG, to put him at a 1.094 OPS.  J.J. Hardy with 52 ABs has a 1.053, and Nick Markakis w/ 69 ABs has a 1.053.  That's better than his July, but his July was pretty damned fine.  In June, Carter's average was .164. 

[juliogotay]

Here's some stuff about Carter's August.  He led MLB with 9 home runs.  With 70 ABs, he had 21 SOs, which is the same number as Mike Trout.  He's had a .329 BA, a .351 OBP, and a .456 SLG, to put him at a 1.094 OPS.  J.J. Hardy with 52 ABs has a 1.053, and Nick Markakis w/ 69 ABs has a 1.053.  That's better than his July, but his July was pretty damned fine.  In June, Carter's average was .164. 

I question the math on Carter's OPS for August. I believe that OBP+SLG=OPS?

[NeilT]

I question the math on Carter's OPS for August. I believe that OBP+SLG=OPS?

You expect me to be wrong on anything?  I'm never wrong, just like last year when I said it was too early to bive up on Carter.  The August .slg was .743.  I made up the .456.  Actually, it was Mike Trout's August .slg.

[JimR]

You expect me to be wrong on anything?  I'm never wrong, just like last year when I said it was too early to bive up on Carter.  The August .slg was .743.  I made up the .456.  Actually, it was Mike Trout's August .slg.

I only said it because I knew you were thinking it.

[Jacksonian]

Here's some stuff about Carter's August.  He led MLB with 9 home runs.  With 70 ABs, he had 21 SOs, which is the same number as Mike Trout.  He's had a .329 BA, a .351 OBP, and a .456 SLG, to put him at a 1.094 OPS.  J.J. Hardy with 52 ABs has a 1.053, and Nick Markakis w/ 69 ABs has a 1.053.  That's better than his July, but his July was pretty damned fine.  In June, Carter's average was .164. 

IMO, the box scores tell you exactly when he put everything together.  He had a terrible end of June.  Gets no PT on June 29 and 30.  Comes back July 1 and takes an Ofer.  Sits on July 2.  Gets back in the lineup July 3 and never looks back.

[NeilT]

I only said it because I knew you were thinking it.

Really, you nailed it.  I figured he would be gone after this season, now I'm worried he'll be gone after this season.

[Ron Brand]

I try not to say "I told you so" except when I want to so...I told you boys and girls last year we should not give up on Carter.

A time-travelin' SOB such as yourself ought to be in the front office, helping to bridge the gap.

[Ron Brand]

I wonder if any contender might be tempted to throw some serious shiny beads at the Astros for Carter. Sell high!

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

The thing that I like about Carter, and it bugs/bugged some, is his temperament, he always has about the same expression. If he's excited there is a tiny crease in the corners of his mouth that indicate a smile. I've noticed it after a home run. It's not there after a strike out.

[das]

The thing that I like about Carter, and it bugs/bugged some, is his temperament, he always has about the same expression. If he's excited there is a tiny crease in the corners of his mouth that indicate a smile. I've noticed it after a home run. It's not there after a strike out.

Very Bagwellian.

[geezerdonk]

In the few interviews that I have seen of him, he seems like a nice guy.

[juliogotay]

Just heard on MLB network that the Astros have scored more runs since the All Star break than any team in either league. Carter is a big part of that and Springer did not even have a plate appearance. Who would have thought that?

[BudGirl]

Very Bagwellian.

I don't like that comparison.  I thought he admired his shot Tuesday night a bit longer than appropriate.  Then again, I prefer a player hit the ball and start running towards first, regardless of where it is hit.

[juliogotay]

Very Bagwellian.

I didn't find Bagwell's emotions to be that hard to read. Especially when he was disgusted with himself.

[NeilT]

The thing that I like about Carter, and it bugs/bugged some, is his temperament, he always has about the same expression. If he's excited there is a tiny crease in the corners of his mouth that indicate a smile. I've noticed it after a home run. It's not there after a strike out.

I think it probably bugged some of us because we misread it as complacency with Ks.

[Mr. Happy]

Very Bagwellian.

WTF? Did you ever watch Bagwell play? He showed all kinds of emotion, especially when he swang at a pitch that he knew he shouldn't have swung at. His facial expressions of disgust were clear as a bell. Bagwelll played the game the right way. He didn't admire home runs or gloat. But he was an emotional player.

[VirtualBob]

WTF? Did you ever watch Bagwell play? He showed all kinds of emotion, especially when he swang at a pitch that he knew he shouldn't have swung at. His facial expressions of disgust were clear as a bell. Bagwelll played the game the right way. He didn't admire home runs or gloat. But he was an emotional player.

swang?  Are you channeling Dizzy Dean?

[juliogotay]

swang?  Are you channeling Dizzy Dean?

Swang is a baseball word dontcha know.

[Mr. Happy]

swang?  Are you channeling Dizzy Dean?

I guess so. lol Remember that I met and got a chance to talk to Ole Diz as an 11 year old.

[juliogotay]

I guess so. lol Remember that I met and got a chance to talk to Ole Diz as an 11 year old.

Was he enjoying a Falstaff?

[Mr. Happy]

Was he enjoying a Falstaff?

He may have been. I didn't care since he signed my Astros hat.

[VirtualBob]

I guess so. lol Remember that I met and got a chance to talk to Ole Diz as an 11 year old.

Lemme turn it over to my ole pardner, Pee Wee Reese.

My favorite was when a guy going from 1st to 3rd on a close play "slud in safe".

[NeilT]

Lemme turn it over to my ole pardner, Pee Wee Reese.

My favorite was when a guy going from 1st to 3rd on a close play "slud in safe".

The present past tense of which is "done has sludded."

[das]

WTF? Did you ever watch Bagwell play? He showed all kinds of emotion, especially when he swang at a pitch that he knew he shouldn't have swung at. His facial expressions of disgust were clear as a bell. Bagwelll played the game the right way. He didn't admire home runs or gloat. But he was an emotional player.

I was talking about the muted response to some positive contribution on the field although, I guess, my saying so puts me firmly at Step 4 of becoming an OWA Troll.

[JimR]

A time-travelin' SOB such as yourself ought to be in the front office, helping to bridge the gap.

I stay close by my phone.

[Noe]

I guess so. lol Remember that I met and got a chance to talk to Ole Diz as an 11 year old.

So how old were you at the time?

[JimR]

So how old were you at the time?

SFN!

[Navin R Johnson]

Carter since July 1, a 46 game span

BA 286, OB 339, SLG 657, OPS 996, 8 doubles, 19 HR, 47 RBI, 14 BB, 58 Ks.

over 162 games that projects too

29 doubles, 67 HRs, 166 RBI, 50 BB, 205K.

[VirtualBob]

So how old were you at the time?

Classic!

+1

[MusicMan]

over 162 games that projects too
(snip)
205K.

Cut his ass.

[Mr. Happy]

So how old were you at the time?

You show up just to zing me? I'm honored.

[Bench]

Carter since July 1, a 46 game span

BA 286, OB 339, SLG 657, OPS 996, 8 doubles, 19 HR, 47 RBI, 14 BB, 58 Ks.

over 162 games that projects too

29 doubles, 67 HRs, 166 RBI, 50 BB, 205K.

He really needs to cut down on his strikeouts.

[NeilT]

You show up just to zing me? I'm honored.

That wasn't really Noe.  It was too short of a post to have been Noe.

[Navin R Johnson]

That wasn't really Noe.  It was too short of a post to have been Noe.

It was like John Bobbitt impersonating Ron Jeremy. 

[VirtualBob]

He really needs to cut down on his strikeouts.

What was your first clue?

[BudGirl]

MMP gets cold with all the SOs (not just Carter's).

[JimR]

he will strike out. he also will hit 30 HRs and drive in 100. I can live with SOs.

[Reuben]

he will strike out. he also will hit 30 HRs and drive in 100. I can live with SOs.

Especially if it ends up being more like 45 HR, 120 RBI per year.

[juliogotay]

Especially if it ends up being more like 45 HR, 120 RBI per year.

Remember when we were concerned he couldn't hit at home? I think he could have a 45/120 year if (a) he stays healthy and (2) they get somebody hitting behind him that isn't really an 8th hitter batting 4th or 5th and (c) he doesn't lose sight of the adjustments he's made to get better.

[Mr. Happy]

he will strike out. he also will hit 30 HRs and drive in 100. I can live with SOs.

+1

[Duman]

I am really starting to get excited about a 234 of Altuve, Springer and Carter for next year.

[austro]

I am really starting to get excited about a 234 of Altuve, Springer and Carter for next year.

I certainly hope there's a reasonable 5 behind Carter, or he's going to get junk.

[das]

I certainly hope there's a reasonable 5 behind Carter, or he's going to get junk.

I think singleton is that guy but he's been tough to watch lately. Last night, I was reminded of Ensberg as singleton watched a third strike straight-as-an-arrow FB sail right down the pike in his 4th (or 5th?) inning AB. 

[VirtualBob]

I think singleton is that guy but he's been tough to watch lately. Last night, I was reminded of Ensberg as singleton watched a third strike straight-as-an-arrow FB sail right down the pike in his 4th (or 5th?) inning AB. 

If he is still doing that in 5-6 years it will be like Ensberg.  Right now he is facing (for the first time in his life) adults who are every bit as talented as he is.  This is one of the things that leads to people not wanting to rich guys to the majors too young.  It seems like Singleton has his head screwed on straight and will survive this as a learning experience, but there is a risk that all he learns is that he can't hit MLB pitching.

[NeilT]

Carter had a 1-year contract for 2014.  I suspect he'll be cashing in next year.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Carter will be arb eligible for the first time this off season. Anyone care to guess what he might receive?

[NeilT]

I suspect there's another organization kerfuffle on the horizon.

[Mr. Happy]

I suspect there's another organization kerfuffle on the horizon.

In what sense?

[Duman]

Carter will be arb eligible for the first time this off season. Anyone care to guess what he might receive?

I would say somewhere between 3.25 & 3.5 million for his year of .226/.299/.503

Last year, those position players who had under 2.5 years of service time (Carter will be at 2.159 at the end of the season) included:

Eric Hosmer - 3.6 mm (2.146 service time) .302/.353/.448
Brandon Belt - 2.9 mm (2.128 service time) .289/.360/.481

Carter is a one tool player - Power.  It is impressive power but there is not much else. 

Jose Guzman got 1.3 mm last year so when you have that kind of floor, the sky's the limit.

[Duman]

Here is a spread sheet of contract status of the astros players from Cot's Contracts.  Bunch of Arb eligible players. Fowler is one (agent Casey Close) think they will come to an easy agreement?   

[NeilT]

In what sense?

I guess it's hard to tell if there are option years, but Carter appears to be signed for a one year contract with a half-million guaranteed for 2014.  In any case he's arb eligible.  What could go wrong?

[das]

I would say somewhere between 3.25 & 3.5 million for his year of .226/.299/.503

Maybe a little more if he hits 40+ and leads all of MLB in HR's?

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Assuming (I think rightly) that the front office has a metric that dictates what a reasonable investment in a DH is, I wonder if they'd consider locking up Carter for 2-3 years now before he can hit the open market.  $5-6MM/season sounds right to me.

[das]

Assuming (I think rightly) that the front office has a metric that dictates what a reasonable investment in a DH is, I wonder if they'd consider locking up Carter for 2-3 years now before he can hit the open market.  $5-6MM/season sounds right to me.

Maybe 2 years would be prudent. What is the typical age that power hitters start to loose their bat speed?  At 28 (I think), I wonder if he's at prime right now. As it is, his HR's have the shortest average distance, highest trajectory and are slowest off the bat of any of the top 20 HR hitters in both leagues. It would not take much of a reduction in bat speed for those to become lazy fly balls.

[Navin R Johnson]

Update on Carter since July 1.  Here is how his number since then (53 games/52 started) translate into a 162 game season.

BA .286, OB .344, SLG .650, OPS .994
2B 25, 3B 0, HR 68, RBI 159
BB 56 Ks 205

[OregonStrosFan]

I try not to say "I told you so" except when I want to so...I told you boys and girls last year we should not give up on Carter.

I'm more than happy to be eating crow on this'n!

[NeilT]

Update on Carter since July 1.  Here is how his number since then (53 games/52 started) translate into a 162 game season.

BA .286, OB .344, SLG .650, OPS .994
2B 25, 3B 0, HR 68, RBI 159
BB 56 Ks 205

.994 OPS is verging on a two-tool player, not counting the superior fielding skills Carter's exhibited as DH.  Here's hoping his September is outstanding as well.

[austro]

Update on Carter since July 1.  Here is how his number since then (53 games/52 started) translate into a 162 game season.

BA .286, OB .344, SLG .650, OPS .994
2B 25, 3B 0, HR 68, RBI 159
BB 56 Ks 205

No triples? I'm not paying for that shit.

[MusicMan]

No triples? I'm not paying for that shit.

"Triples ain't worth shit" - C. Biggio

[JimR]

I'm more than happy to be eating crow on this'n!

you should be well into your second helping.

[Reuben]

you should be well into your second helping.

Jim, how high of an average do you think Carter is capable of hitting for? In the minors his BA was .283, and one year he managed to hit .337 in AA. His AAA BA is a more modest .268. Since July 1 this year, he's hitting .292.

Obviously with his power even a .250 BA would be great; but if he can hit .270 long-term that would really be something.

[juliogotay]

Jim, how high of an average do you think Carter is capable of hitting for? In the minors his BA was .283, and one year he managed to hit .337 in AA. His AAA BA is a more modest .268. Since July 1 this year, he's hitting .292.

Obviously with his power even a .250 BA would be great; but if he can hit .270 long-term that would really be something.

Reuben, did your research turn up if his K rate has gone done since July 1st? That's probably the key because he's going to hit the ball hard when he makes contact.

[Jacksonian]

Reuben, did your research turn up if his K rate has gone done since July 1st? That's probably the key because he's going to hit the ball hard when he makes contact.

Pre-ASB his K rate was 36% of his at-bats.  Post-ASB his K rate is 33% of his at-bats.

[Reuben]

Pre-ASB his K rate was 36% of his at-bats.  Post-ASB his K rate is 33% of his at-bats.

Yeah, still a pace for about 200 K over a full 162-game schedule. Slightly better, I guess.