New Astros top 10??

[pots]

Last year's midseason thread

What a difference a year makes.  My list from last year:

1. Correa
2. Singleton
3. Appel (2013 Draft)
4. Foltynewicz
5. Springer
6. McCullers, Jr.
7. DeShields, Jr.
8. Cozart
9. Tropeano
10. Fontana

Singleton, Springer and Cozart no longer eligible.  Appel has dropped off the top 10 for me.    

1. Correa
2. Foltynewicz
3. Aiken (2014 Draft)
4. Tropeano
5. Santana
6. Teoscar Hernandez
7. McCullers, Jr.
8. Josh Hader
9. Michael Feliz
10. Kyle Smith
11. Vincent Velasquez - (He'd of been pushing top 5 if it wasn't for the groin set back)
12. Appel
13. Ruiz
14. DeShields, Jr. - (looks like it takes him over a year to figure out each A level)
15. Shirley (older prospect, currently 25 at CC, but potentially a solid mid rotation starter)
16. Kemp
17. Fontana

2014 Draftees Fisher, Reed, Davis and Nix may all fit in there somewhere, so I guess that fills out a top 21

[VirtualBob]

Last year's midseason thread

What a difference a year makes.  

15. Shirley (older prospect, currently 25 at CC, but potentially a solid mid rotation starter)

I think you are undervaluing Shirley.  He has struggled with injuries every year, but has been dominant when healthy ... like Brad Lidge in some ways.  His age at AA is probably more a function of his injuries and experience than anything else.  I think he still has a pretty high ceiling.

[pots]

I think you are undervaluing Shirley.  He has struggled with injuries every year, but has been dominant when healthy ... like Brad Lidge in some ways.  His age at AA is probably more a function of his injuries and experience than anything else.  I think he still has a pretty high ceiling.

Higher ceiling than a #3?  (I value a solid #3 about the same as a closer) 

[Reuben]

Wow, punting on Appel a bit fast there? I just find it hard to believe a single MLB team would take Tropeano over Appel right now, and probably many of them would still take Appel over Folty too, let alone Kyle Smith. I think it's great that Tropeano and Smith are having such success at AAA and A+/AA, but minor league success isn't everything, and Appel's stuff is reportedly still the same (if not as consistent). His prospect star has taken a big hit, for sure, I just don't think it's taken quite as massive of a hit as you think.

That aside, it's a very interesting list, and I have no idea where I would rank most of these guys. How much should we "discount" Teoscar's (& Kemp's) CAL league breakout? What about Folty's and McCullers' struggles, does that knock them down a bit? Or Asher Wojo's delayed start to the season?

Lots of food for thought, and we're still leaving out some really interesting guys, like:

Tucker
Aplin
Brett Phillips
Ronald Torreyes
Thurman
Stassi
Heineman
Reymin Guduan
Jandel Gustave
Conrad Gregor
Emanuel (3.21 ERA, 1.07 WHIP away from The Hangar)

[Mike S.]

Tucker is one of the more interesting prospects in my mind and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Houston at some point later this season. 

Having said that, I've of course now consigned him to the rest of the year in the minors.

[juliogotay]

Tucker is one of the more interesting prospects in my mind and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Houston at some point later this season. 

Having said that, I've of course now consigned him to the rest of the year in the minors.

I think that would be a little rushed. Unless it was in September to sit and watch.

[pots]

Wow, punting on Appel a bit fast there? I just find it hard to believe a single MLB team would take Tropeano over Appel right now, and probably many of them would still take Appel over Folty too, let alone Kyle Smith. I think it's great that Tropeano and Smith are having such success at AAA and A+/AA, but minor league success isn't everything, and Appel's stuff is reportedly still the same (if not as consistent). His prospect star has taken a big hit, for sure, I just don't think it's taken quite as massive of a hit as you think.

I probably have Smith to high on the list, but I have punted on Appel being a top of the rotation starter.  And a mid rotation ceiling guy struggling is not high on my list. 

[pots]

Kieth Law's Top 50 includes 3 Astros:
#3 Correa
#33 Appel
and........

#47 Ruiz



Guess this blows up the theory that they should have taken Buxton because McCullers could still have been landed anyways (just not Ruiz).

[pots]

Last year's midseason thread

What a difference a year makes.  My list from last year:
Singleton, Springer and Cozart no longer eligible.  Appel has dropped off the top 10 for me.    

1. Correa
2. Foltynewicz
3. Aiken (2014 Draft)
4. Tropeano
5. Santana
6. Teoscar Hernandez
7. McCullers, Jr.
8. Josh Hader
9. Michael Feliz
10. Kyle Smith
11. Vincent Velasquez - (He'd of been pushing top 5 if it wasn't for the groin set back)
12. Appel
13. Ruiz
14. DeShields, Jr. - (looks like it takes him over a year to figure out each A level)
15. Shirley (older prospect, currently 25 at CC, but potentially a solid mid rotation starter)
16. Kemp
17. Fontana

2014 Draftees Fisher, Reed, Davis and Nix may all fit in there somewhere, so I guess that fills out a top 21

Adjusted list:

1. Correa
2. Foltynewicz - Taking a while to put it together at AAA
3. Tropeano - I have him this high because of a high floor and he's basically ready to make the jump
4. Santana
5. Vincent Velasquez - Back quicker then I expected from the groin injury
6. McCullers, Jr.
7. Teoscar Hernandez
8. Josh Hader
9. Ruiz
10. Appel - Reports of injuries have me more hopeful
11. Michael Feliz
12. J.D. Davis
13. Derek Fisher
14. A.J. Reed
15. Kyle Smith
16. DeShields, Jr. - (looks like it takes him over a year to figure out each A level)
17. Shirley (older prospect, currently 25 at CC, but potentially a solid mid rotation starter)
18. Kemp
19. Tucker - Keeps hitting at each league
20. Fontana


Crap shoot after Correa.  Could see an argument for 6 or 7 guys at #2.  Real solid top 10.  Seems like Fisher, Reed and Davis, while not pushing the top guys yet make the top 20 real strong.  Plus a ton of folks not listed that are interesting (Brady Rogers, Gregor, Stassi, Danry Vasquez, etc)

[juliogotay]

It is a pretty solid list is Tucker is 19 (and I think that's about right). I expect him to play several years in the MLs. DDS I don't feel as confident about.

As for pitching, I hope some of the big arms start making better strides. McCullers, Folty, and of course Appel.

[jbm]

The lists include lots of guys that they have developed well, but aren't thought of as potential superstars.  Overall, that's a great sign as those guys will definitely help.  However, they still need the really high ceiling, superstar prospects, and that's where missing on the high picks will bite you in the ass. 

[geezerdonk]

Gregor should be in there somewhere.

[juliogotay]

Gregor should be in there somewhere.

Ahead of Fontana I would think.

[Reuben]

The lists include lots of guys that they have developed well, but aren't thought of as potential superstars.  Overall, that's a great sign as those guys will definitely help.  However, they still need the really high ceiling, superstar prospects, and that's where missing on the high picks will bite you in the ass. 

Exactly. Though with the sheer number of solid pitching prospects they have, I see decent odds that one of them turns into an Ace. The position players have more limited upside, though it's not crazy to imagine one of them, like Santana or maybe Reed, winding up as a 30+ HR guy, which might be considered superstar upside.

[pots]

The lists include lots of guys that they have developed well, but aren't thought of as potential superstars.  Overall, that's a great sign as those guys will definitely help.  However, they still need the really high ceiling, superstar prospects, and that's where missing on the high picks will bite you in the ass.  

High ceiling:
Correa - obvious

AAA - superstar potential
Foltynewicz - potential to be an ace, floor might be closer at this point
Santana - potential to hit 30 HRs a year, probably the weakest on this list, but still only 21 at AAA

These 3 guys are making a mockery of Lancaster:
 - Vincent Velasquez
 - McCullers, Jr.
 - Josh Hader

Ruiz -  Just turned 20 May 22.  Missed most of his senior year in high school, Improves at a ridiculous pace.  Law likes to make bold predictions ahead of the rest to make a name for himself, but #47 is a huge jump up his list

Michael Feliz


That's 5 potential front of the rotation/ace pitchers, third baseman, shortstop and right fielder/dh.  That got some superstar cogs if they develop well.  Should get 2 more guys next year.  All of these guys might flop, but can't miss superstars don't exist.  Even the great Kris Bryant may flop.

[pots]

Adjusted list:

1. Correa
2. Foltynewicz - Taking a while to put it together at AAA
3. Tropeano - I have him this high because of a high floor and he's basically ready to make the jump
4. Santana
5. Vincent Velasquez - Back quicker then I expected from the groin injury
6. McCullers, Jr.
7. Teoscar Hernandez
8. Josh Hader
9. Ruiz
10. Appel - Reports of injuries have me more hopeful
11. Michael Feliz
12. J.D. Davis
13. Derek Fisher
14. A.J. Reed
15. Kyle Smith
16. DeShields, Jr. - (looks like it takes him over a year to figure out each A level)
17. Shirley (older prospect, currently 25 at CC, but potentially a solid mid rotation starter)
18. Kemp
19. Tucker - Keeps hitting at each league
20. Fontana


Crap shoot after Correa.  Could see an argument for 6 or 7 guys at #2.  Real solid top 10.  Seems like Fisher, Reed and Davis, while not pushing the top guys yet make the top 20 real strong.  Plus a ton of folks not listed that are interesting (Brady Rogers, Gregor, Stassi, Danry Vasquez, etc)

One thing this list does show is just how bad the 2013 draft was.  Still think it was a huge mistake letting Heck go.

[pots]

Gregor should be in there somewhere.

At this point he may be bumping Fontana off the list.  Hard to do more with such a short stretch of success, but he's definitely climbing fast

[MusicMan]

Gregor should be in there somewhere.

Is he The Mountain or The Hound?

[MusicMan]

And not to pick nits, but I don't see any scenario that DDSJr is rated over Tucker any more.

[Reuben]

And not to pick nits, but I don't see any scenario that DDSJr is rated over Tucker any more.

I know DDS hasn't hit great this year, but a) he's still two full years younger than Tucker (Delino turns 22 in Aug), b) he did get beaned in the face this year so perhaps we should cut him some slack, and c) if he can learn to be more Willy T than Roger C in the OF, then he'll have a LOT more defensive value than Tucker, not to mention the base running advantage.

I like Tucker too, I'm just saying why it might not be as clear-cut as you think.

[jbm]

And not to pick nits, but I don't see any scenario that DDSJr is rated over Tucker any more.

I wonder if they were both in last month's draft, who'd be taken first?  I'd put my money on DDS for sure, but I've lost a lot of bets. 

[pots]

And not to pick nits, but I don't see any scenario that DDSJr is rated over Tucker any more.

Tucker's ceiling/floor is pretty much set at useful starter/utility man.  DDS's Ceiling/floor is still a key player/never makes it.  The concern I have is how long it is taking him to develop.  But he still can do it.

[Reuben]

Is he The Mountain or The Hound?

Not Clegane; Samsa.