Fangraphs Spends Crane's Money

[Nate Colbert]

Scroll down to the "The Real World Plan"

As much as I wanted to piss on this because (among other things) the writer is a fucking dojers fan, I actually kinda like the list. Having said that, I'd substitute Veras for Albers and it's hard for me to imagine the Astros signing BOTH Young and Murphy. I'd sign one or the other (perhaps Murphy because of the lefty bat) and use the remaining $6-7MM to bring in a second veteran starting pitcher.

The caveat to all this is that all the players involved are signed to one-year deals, with exceptions I would assume for Nolasco and Loney. And I don't think Loney blocks Singleton who likely will spend most of 2014 at OKC anyway. If Singleton eventually makes good, you trade Loney next offseason and if Singleton busts you've bought yourself some protection (and it's not like there's anyone else in the system who looks to be the answer at 1B in the next couple of years either).

FWIW, if it were my money I wouldn't be spending the $40MM to upgrade an awful team to a mediocre one. But if that's the direction Crane is headed in, I think the article's suggestions aren't a bad way to go about it.

[subnuclear]

I'm against really awful teams on principle. I hope they sign some people.

[drew corleone]

That was a good read. Thanks.

[VirtualBob]

That was a good read. Thanks.

+1

The bit at the end about fighting Miami for fourth place almost got by me, though.  They should probably acknowledge the move to the AL, even if they do not like it any more than I do.

[NeilT]

"Yikes.

SP — Jarred Cosart, Brett Oberholtzer, Jordan Lyles, Brad Peacock, Dallas Keuchel, Paul Clemens
RP — It almost doesn’t matter. No one irreplaceable."

I do not see that starting pitching lineup as yikes-worthy.  "Jarred Cosart, Brett Oberholtzer, Jordan Lyles, Brad Peacock, Dallas Keuchel, Paul Clemens" are some young guys with some talent, and I like that that group is the tip of the iceberg.

And as for the RP, they clearly weren't watching at the end of the season.  Of course no one else was either.  But nathless, FIELDS! was pretty damn fine.

[astrosfan76]

"Yikes.

SP — Jarred Cosart, Brett Oberholtzer, Jordan Lyles, Brad Peacock, Dallas Keuchel, Paul Clemens
RP — It almost doesn’t matter. No one irreplaceable."

I do not see that starting pitching lineup as yikes-worthy.  "Jarred Cosart, Brett Oberholtzer, Jordan Lyles, Brad Peacock, Dallas Keuchel, Paul Clemens" are some young guys with some talent, and I like that that group is the tip of the iceberg.

And as for the RP, they clearly weren't watching at the end of the season.  Of course no one else was either.  But nathless, FIELDS! was pretty damn fine.

I don't see the rotation as close to a strength, either.  At this point, you have several candidates who, on an average club, would be back of the rotation guys, at this point.  Could one or two become more?  Yeah.  But, as the article points out, the system's best is still in the minors.  Probably not as much "yikes" as the bullpen, and should improve during the season even if we don't make any acquisitions, but still could use a guy or two like Nolasco to front the rotation and keep the bullpen from logging as many innings.

On the bullpen, I don't see anyone "irreplaceable", but most relievers don't fit that category, anyway.  I like Fields and Lo and there were some other arms who put up decent numbers (like Chapman and Zeid).  Veras was the closest guy to irreplaceable from last year's squad and we see what happened after he was traded.  So, it would be beneficial for the club to bring in a couple of dependable arms.  I get that you aren't implying that the bullpen is fine, but I don't think that Fields is irreplaceable, either.   

[Jacksonian]

I don't see the rotation as close to a strength, either.  At this point, you have several candidates who, on an average club, would be back of the rotation guys, at this point.  Could one or two become more?  Yeah.  But, as the article points out, the system's best is still in the minors.  Probably not as much "yikes" as the bullpen, and should improve during the season even if we don't make any acquisitions, but still could use a guy or two like Nolasco to front the rotation and keep the bullpen from logging as many innings.

On the bullpen, I don't see anyone "irreplaceable", but most relievers don't fit that category, anyway.  I like Fields and Lo and there were some other arms who put up decent numbers (like Chapman and Zeid).  Veras was the closest guy to irreplaceable from last year's squad and we see what happened after he was traded.  So, it would be beneficial for the club to bring in a couple of dependable arms.  I get that you aren't implying that the bullpen is fine, but I don't think that Fields is irreplaceable, either.   

No one on the team is irreplaceable.  It's the extremely rare player that is.  But I think there is a good bit of 3-5 level starting pitcher talent as well as potential bullpen talent on the 40-man roster.  I think both Cosart and Lyles have more physical talent than the others on the roster.  And I do agree that there are probably 3 or 4 pitchers not on the 40-man who have as much if not more talent than Cosart and Lyles.

[NeilT]

Yeah, I wasn't implying that that was a group of Aces, bought cheap and pitching lights out.  Yikes just seemed a bit over the top.

[OldBlevins]

+1

The bit at the end about fighting Miami for fourth place almost got by me, though.  They should probably acknowledge the move to the AL, even if they do not like it any more than I do.

I think he said the Mariners, not the Marlins.

[VirtualBob]

I think he said the Mariners, not the Marlins.

I checked twice but I guess I could have scrambled it. Or someone pointed it out and he changed it?

[toddthebod]

I like the idea of bringing in Perez and Albers.  Outside of that, this plan is overwhelmingly meh.  And will not make the Astros anything other than meh.  Here's my plan.  Sign Ellsbury, Hart, Johnson, Perez and Albers.  (I actually like Kendrys Morales more than Hart, but Morales was given a qualifying offer and I wouldn't want to give up another draft pick in addition to the draft pick the Astros would be giving up to get Ellsbury).  This will fit within the financial limitations and actually improves the lineup.  The back of the bullpen is solidified and Johnson could be an ace.  Because this is a one-year deal for Johnson, he will be highly incentivized. 

Lineup:

Ellsbury
Altuve
Castro
Springer
Hart
Carter
Dominguez
Grossman or Hoes
Villar

Rotation

[subnuclear]

I would love it if they signed all those people, but they probably won't.

[NeilT]

The Chronicle suggested today that they would consider trading young talent.  I hadn't really thought of that.

[Nate Colbert]

Here's my plan.  Sign Ellsbury, Hart, Johnson, Perez and Albers.  (I actually like Kendrys Morales more than Hart, but Morales was given a qualifying offer and I wouldn't want to give up another draft pick in addition to the draft pick the Astros would be giving up to get Ellsbury).  This will fit within the financial limitations and actually improves the lineup.  The back of the bullpen is solidified and Johnson could be an ace.  Because this is a one-year deal for Johnson, he will be highly incentivized. 

Luhnow isn't talking like a man lusting after Ellsbury-type free agents:

“We definitely are going to think twice before making any big commitments that include losing a draft pick and/or committing a lot of dollars for a long period of time.”

"Given the number of teams with needs, would we be likely to come away with one of the top guys? I can’t handicap that. I think it’s probably a long shot."

[toddthebod]

I know what he said.  I just don't see that much of an upgrade bringing in Loney, Chris Young, and David Murphy.  What's the point of spending money on players who are only going to have a marginal impact on the team's record?

[mrpink]

I hate the idea of Chris Perez.  I'd much rather see Fields get the chance and watch Perez blow saves for another team.

[moriartp]

I hate the idea of Chris Perez.  I'd much rather see Fields get the chance and watch Perez blow saves for another team.

Agree 100%. Perez would be an awful decision.

[astrosfan76]

Good news: Astros sign a reliever with a career 2.80 ERA over 8 seasons.

Bad news: He's only pitched more than 15 innings in 3 of those seasons.

But, on a minor-league deal, signing Peter Moylan is a great move. I'm sure they'll still look for two more relievers, but he can really help for the time that he's healthy.

[mrpink]

Good news: Astros sign a reliever with a career 2.80 ERA over 8 seasons.

Bad news: He's only pitched more than 15 innings in 3 of those seasons.

But, on a minor-league deal, signing Peter Moylan is a great move. I'm sure they'll still look for two more relievers, but he can really help for the time that he's healthy.

Agreed completely, with just this to add: he did pitch 46 quality innings at Albuquerque last year so he's healthier than the 15 innings number indicates. He could be the full-time setup guy next year.

[pots]

Agreed completely, with just this to add: he did pitch 46 quality innings at Albuquerque last year so he's healthier than the 15 innings number indicates. He could be the full-time setup guy next year.

unlikely.  He walked 20 in those 46 quality innings.  Allowed a baserunner in all but 1 of his 14 mlb appearances last year (that was just for one out). And will be 35 next year.  He's a flier.  With all the young guys competing for roster spots in the coming year, he's got his work cut out for him just to warrant adding him to the 40-man.     It's a decent move only because it's a minor league deal.  

[astrosfan76]

unlikely.  He walked 20 in those 46 quality innings.  Allowed a baserunner in all but 1 of his 14 mlb appearances last year (that was just for one out). And will be 35 next year.  He's a flier.  With all the young guys competing for roster spots in the coming year, he's got his work cut out for him just to warrant adding him to the 40-man.     It's a decent move only because it's a minor league deal.  

Depends on your definition of quality. He's always had a highish walk rate, but still kept his ERA low. I don't know what he has left, or if he'll even make the 40-man. His problem last season (particularly in the majors), compared to previous seasons, was keeping the ball on the ground. Small sample size, but something worth monitoring.

[mrpink]

He only gave up 1 bomb in AAA all year and his career HR rate is lower than anyone on the staff had last year except for Chapman and Cosart.