BP Offseason Astros Top 10 Prospects

[roadrunner]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22157

1.SS Carlos Correa
2.CF George Springer
3.RHP Mark Appel
4.RHP Mike Foltynewicz
5.1B Jonathan Singleton
6.RHP Vincent Velasquez
7.RHP Lance McCullers
8.RF Domingo Santana
9.3B Rio Ruiz
10.RHP Michael Feliz

No real surprises other than DDS not being on there, but that had been reported earlier. 

[Reuben]

I bet McCullers would rank #1 for many teams... That is a fantastic Top 7. And I love that 4 of them are pitchers.

[Mr. Happy]

I wonder what it is about DDS that some folks don't like. I agree with Reuben that this is an outstanding list.

[Ron Brand]

Nice to see VV and RR on there. I hope Singleton fulfills the promise he had before last season.

[subnuclear]

I bet McCullers would rank #1 for many teams... That is a fantastic Top 7. And I love that 4 of them are pitchers.

It be nice if one of them were left-handed. I wonder where we can get one of those?

[juliogotay]

It be nice if one of them were left-handed. I wonder where we can get one of those?

Patience, laddie.

[juliogotay]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22157

1.SS Carlos Correa
2.CF George Springer
3.RHP Mark Appel
4.RHP Mike Foltynewicz
5.1B Jonathan Singleton
6.RHP Vincent Velasquez
7.RHP Lance McCullers
8.RF Domingo Santana
9.3B Rio Ruiz
10.RHP Michael Feliz

No real surprises other than DDS not being on there, but that had been reported earlier. 

Actually, I'm a little surprised Feliz jumped up all the way to Top 10.

[geezerdonk]

Asher Woj should be on this list.

[juliogotay]

I wonder what it is about DDS that some folks don't like. I agree with Reuben that this is an outstanding list.

Click on the link, scroll down past the current Top 10 and under the Notable Omission you will see what concerns some have with DDS.

[Mr. Happy]

Click on the link, scroll down past the current Top 10 and under the Notable Omission you will see what concerns some have with DDS.

I hadn't done that. Thanks!

[VirtualBob]

Pretty thorough write-up.  Thanks for posting.

[MusicMan]

I bet McCullers would rank #1 for many teams... That is a fantastic Top 7. And I love that 4 of them are pitchers.

Also notable that 2-5 are projected to arrive in 2014.

[OregonStrosFan]

From the 'prospects I know little or nothing about but like what I read here' department...

2.LHP Reymin Guduan: I’m a sucker for southpaw velocity, and Guduan stands in elite company when it comes to arm strength from the left side. A relatively unknown prospect-–he has only 2 1/3 innings above the complex level—the 21-year-old Dominican can pump upper-90s heat like it’s a common outcome. Relief prospects don’t offer much, especially when they will be 22 coming into the season with a very limited professional record at the full-season level. But 6’4’’ lefties who can touch 100 mph on the radar gun are always worth keeping a very close eye on.

[geezerdonk]

Low energy approach is a damning assessment. He has three errors in fifteen games playing center field in the Arizona Fall League.

[roadrunner]

Also notable that 2-5 are projected to arrive in 2014.

This is the most exciting part of the list to me.  2014 will be the first year we will see a real wave of prospects that should have a meaningful impact.

[Mr. Happy]

This is the most exciting part of the list to me.  2014 will be the first year we will see a real wave of prospects that should have a meaningful impact.

+1

[juliogotay]

Looking at the pitching evaluations, it makes me wonder what one of these prospects has to do to rate #1 starter projection status? One even a 1-1 in the draft.

[Jacksonian]

Looking at the pitching evaluations, it makes me wonder what one of these prospects has to do to rate #1 starter projection status? One even a 1-1 in the draft.

Be drafted 1-1 in 2014.

[roadrunner]

Looking at the pitching evaluations, it makes me wonder what one of these prospects has to do to rate #1 starter projection status? One even a 1-1 in the draft.

The whole #1 starter projection is kind of misleading.  Most teams don't have a "#1 Starter" (such as the current Astros) and probably only 8-10 have a true "#1 starter", at least in the lingo the baseball media uses.  Some teams are lucky to have 2 (such as the Dodgers with Kershaw and Greinke), but I don't think there are more than 8-12 true "#1 starters" using this definition.

So while Appel may only project to be a middle of the rotation guy, that also means they are projecting he could be a #1 starter for a 2nd division rotation.

[Mr. Happy]

The whole #1 starter projection is kind of misleading.  Most teams don't have a "#1 Starter" (such as the current Astros) and probably only 8-10 have a true "#1 starter", at least in the lingo the baseball media uses.  Some teams are lucky to have 2 (such as the Dodgers with Kershaw and Greinke), but I don't think there are more than 8-12 true "#1 starters" using this definition.

So while Appel may only project to be a middle of the rotation guy, that also means they are projecting he could be a #1 starter for a 2nd division rotation.

That is a great point. If Appel turned into a three, i'd be elated with that result.

[astrosfan76]

The whole #1 starter projection is kind of misleading.  Most teams don't have a "#1 Starter" (such as the current Astros) and probably only 8-10 have a true "#1 starter", at least in the lingo the baseball media uses.  Some teams are lucky to have 2 (such as the Dodgers with Kershaw and Greinke), but I don't think there are more than 8-12 true "#1 starters" using this definition.

So while Appel may only project to be a middle of the rotation guy, that also means they are projecting he could be a #1 starter for a 2nd division rotation.

Exactly.  I believe BA's definition in their handbooks was something like 2 plus-plus pitches (70+), a third plus pitch (60+), plus command, and pitch 200+ innings/season.  So, you're looking at a very small number of pitchers who can meet that criteria.  Finding guys with two plus-plus pitches isn't terribly hard, most organizations have at least a couple, but throwing in the third plus pitch and plus command is where it really becomes a special pitcher.

[juliogotay]

That is a great point. If Appel turned into a three, i'd be elated with that result.

I'd be a little disappointed if Appel was not more than a #3.

[roadrunner]

I'd be a little disappointed if Appel was not more than a #3.

Yeah, but again, I think the #2/#3 ceiling is referencing good baseball teams.  The first example I can think of off the top of my head is Andy Pettitte.  It would not suck if Appel ends up being as effective as Pettitte was in his prime.

[jbm]

#2 or #3 isn't related to good or bad teams; it's just an industry standard. An objective level of performance or potential in this case.

[morningwood75]

Low energy approach is a damning assessment. He has three errors in fifteen games playing center field in the Arizona Fall League.

Anthony Boyer from the Crawfish Boxes and who has a lot of connections when it comes to the Cali League talked some about DeShields.........

Low-motor doesn’t mean no-motor. DDJ’s teammates are, by and large, college kids who have had to deal with balancing school and academics. He has some issues, but he’s far from a lost cause… and to be quite frank, I still like him a lot as a person. I’ve watched him stay hours after games to sign autographs. I’ve seen him give interviews to anybody who wants one. I’ve seen him benched in the playoffs, but hanging off the dugout railing, cheering the loudest for the guy who replaced him. He studies the games. His pitchers are universal in their praise of the advice he gives them about opposing teams’ baserunners.

I don’t want anyone to think that I don’t like him, either as a person or as a prospect. He has issues he needs to overcome, but those don’t make him a bad ballplayer. Far from it. But it’s difficult to not think that he could move forward in leaps and bounds if he can make that emotional leap. Sometimes, when you see how far a guy is from what he could be, it’s easy to lose focus of what he is. You just see that gap.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013/11/4/5065772/baseball-prospectus-releases-top-10-astros-prospects-list

[juliogotay]

Also notable that 2-5 are projected to arrive in 2014.

I just looked closer at this piece and the entire Top 5, including Correa, are ETAd at 2014.

[NeilT]

I just looked closer at this piece and the entire Top 5, including Correa, are ETAd at 2014.

I just re-read this and realized that 2014 wasn't some indeterminate future, that 2014 was this season.  That doesn't seem likely, does it?  I've had some vague notion that Correa might show up for a bit in 2015, but there was no reason to expect him as an everyday player until 2016 or so.

[roadrunner]

I just re-read this and realized that 2014 wasn't some indeterminate future, that 2014 was this season.  That doesn't seem likely, does it?  I've had some vague notion that Correa might show up for a bit in 2015, but there was no reason to expect him as an everyday player until 2016 or so.

Late 2014 does seem optimistic for Correa, but if 2-5 all appear in Houston in 2014 it wouldn't surprise me.

[juliogotay]

I just re-read this and realized that 2014 wasn't some indeterminate future, that 2014 was this season.  That doesn't seem likely, does it?  I've had some vague notion that Correa might show up for a bit in 2015, but there was no reason to expect him as an everyday player until 2016 or so.

That's what I would think regarding Correa...especially since this front office doesnt' rush guys (see Springer example).

[roadrunner]

And BP follows up with a discussion on Correa vs Springer vs Appel.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22167

Not sure if it's pay, but it is really just more color around the stuff we already know.  A few things jumped out at me:

- One scout said he thought Correa could be the best player in the game in 3 years
- There is strong belief that Correa will challenge Buxton as the prospect this year.
- lots of knocks on Appel's intensity and ability to assert himself against hitters (at least that's how I'm interpreting it)

[jbm]

It's interesting to read the raw opinions, and interesting how present/future and risk/upside come into play, but all I kept thinking was: what were the conversations last year and what will they be next year?  Ranking and evaluating prospects for public consumption is so transitory.

[subnuclear]

Late 2014 does seem optimistic for Correa, but if 2-5 all appear in Houston in 2014 it wouldn't surprise me.

I think Springer will be the only one to play the whole year. 2014 will be another very hard year, imo.

[MusicMan]

And BP follows up with a discussion on Correa vs Springer vs Appel.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22167

Not sure if it's pay, but it is really just more color around the stuff we already know.  A few things jumped out at me:

- One scout said he thought Correa could be the best player in the game in 3 years
- There is strong belief that Correa will challenge Buxton as the prospect this year.
- lots of knocks on Appel's intensity and ability to assert himself against hitters (at least that's how I'm interpreting it)

I started getting uncomfortably excited:

Some of the reports on Correa read like erotica, and two AGMs that I really trust told me he will challenge Buxton for top prospect in the game next season.

We all know about the makeup, but when other teams suggest his overall approach to the game is Profar-like, we know exactly what that means: he is a winner with an extremely large baseball penis.

[roadrunner]

It's interesting to read the raw opinions, and interesting how present/future and risk/upside come into play, but all I kept thinking was: what were the conversations last year and what will they be next year?  Ranking and evaluating prospects for public consumption is so transitory.

Yeah, Parks wrote about this in his intro piece before starting his organization-by-organization breakdown.  He says that essentially this is just a snapshot in time and a lot of things can change for the better or the worse.  Obviously people love this stuff so there will always be arguments over prospect rankings, so I don't think the transitory nature of it really matters as long as you keep that in mind as you read.

And it fills the void.

[morningwood75]

Is anyone else slightly annoyed by the knocks on Appel when it comes to passivity, etc.? This was the main negative about him before his junior year. Then he went out and pitched really well. Then he pitched even better in his senior year. I'm sure there is at least something to it, but it also seems as if some scouts latch on to something and refuse to let go.

[NeilT]

Is anyone else slightly annoyed by the knocks on Appel when it comes to passivity, etc.? This was the main negative about him before his junior year. Then he went out and pitched really well. Then he pitched even better in his senior year. I'm sure there is at least something to it, but it also seems as if some scouts latch on to something and refuse to let go.

He should get a tattoo of a skull and crossbones on his forehead.  That'll turn those opinions right around.

[morningwood75]

He should get a tattoo of a skull and crossbones on his forehead.  That'll turn those opinions right around.

.......or one of those barbwire tattoos on his arm

[jbm]

Is anyone else slightly annoyed by the knocks on Appel when it comes to passivity, etc.? This was the main negative about him before his junior year. Then he went out and pitched really well. Then he pitched even better in his senior year. I'm sure there is at least something to it, but it also seems as if some scouts latch on to something and refuse to let go.

I'm rarely annoyed by informed opinions, but to be fair to those that hold that opinion of Appel, I doubt they are swayed by Appel's success in college.  It will take Appel dominating major leaguers to dispel that belief.

[morningwood75]

I'm rarely annoyed by informed opinions, but to be fair to those that hold that opinion of Appel, I doubt they are swayed by Appel's success in college.  It will take Appel dominating major leaguers to dispel that belief.

You're right.

[La Verdad]

.......or one of those barbwire tattoos on his arm

Maybe "THUG LIFE" on his knuckles, too?

[NeilT]

Maybe "THUG LIFE" on his knuckles, too?

I was thinking about "H-A-T-E" and "H-A-T-E".

[astrosfan76]

Low energy approach is a damning assessment. He has three errors in fifteen games playing center field in the Arizona Fall League.

Don't think it was from him being lackadaisical, just reacclimating himself to the position at a higher level.

His routes are getting batter and his setup is better," said Astros manager Bo Porter, who was in Arizona last week. "That's one of the things we've been stressing to him -- if you make the transition, it's about the first step, and the way you work on that is making sure your setup is good. If you keep your body in motion, you're going to get the best jump you can get. No doubt, he has the closing speed. So if we can get him to understand the importance of the first step and getting a good jump, he can be an above-average defender.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/hou/astros-prospect-delino-deshields-jr-becoming-more-versatile-in-arizona?ymd=20131106&content_id=63735792&vkey=news_hou

[subnuclear]

This post at Astros Country is a nice summary of Astros prospects in the top 100 from 2007-2013.  Adds some perspective.

[astrosfan76]

BP put out their top 101 prospects.  Astros with only 5, though I think they stopped picking our prospects at 57 to give other teams a chance.  Anyway, here they are:

5-Correa
20-Springer
21-Appel
43-Folty
57-Singleton

Not fans of DDS, apparently.  Twins led with 8 picks, Royals had 7, Cubs had 7 (though I think they chose Pierce Johnson just cause, you know), Pirates had 7, and Rangers had 7.  On the flip side, the Tigers, Yankees, A's, and Giants only had 1.  The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim led the field in ineptitude with nary a prospect on the list.  Ouch.

[roadrunner]

BP put out their top 101 prospects.  Astros with only 5, though I think they stopped picking our prospects at 57 to give other teams a chance.  Anyway, here they are:

5-Correa
20-Springer
21-Appel
43-Folty
57-Singleton

Not fans of DDS, apparently.  Twins led with 8 picks, Royals had 7, Cubs had 7 (though I think they chose Pierce Johnson just cause, you know), Pirates had 7, and Rangers had 7.  On the flip side, the Tigers, Yankees, A's, and Giants only had 1.  The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim led the field in ineptitude with nary a prospect on the list.  Ouch.

Jason Parks has been pretty vocal about how down he is on DDS. 

[BUWebguy]

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim led the field in ineptitude with nary a prospect on the list.  Ouch.

Hey, but at least they've got Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols locked up through their age-36 and age-41 seasons, right?

[Mr. Happy]

Hey, but at least they've got Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols locked up through their age-36 and age-41 seasons, right?

That's certainly one way to look at it. On the other hand,...

[Duman]

reality check - DDJ would have been eligible for the draft this year if he had gone to college. 

[juliogotay]

Hey, but at least they've got Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols locked up through their age-36 and age-41 seasons, right?

Did Jerry Jones buy the Angels?

[astrosfan76]

Jason Parks has been pretty vocal about how down he is on DDS. 

Couldn't remember who it was.  Guess he'll have to show skills put up eye-popping numbers smile more on the field to get back on their good side.

[Reuben]

It's funny to compare the BP and BA lists. BP thinks Singleton is the 57th-best prospect in all of baseball, and they feel there are at least 43 lesser prospects after him before you even get to McCullers or Vincent Velasquez. Meanwhile, BA put both of them ahead of Singleton on their Astros' Top 10.

But rather than bitch about their slighting of all things Astro, I think we should take a sec and appreciate how nice it is having Correa, who's yet to appear above low-A ball, ranked as the #5 overall prospect. Everyone else in the Top 10 has spent significant time at High-A or above.

[astrosfan76]

It's funny to compare the BP and BA lists. BP thinks Singleton is the 57th-best prospect in all of baseball, and they feel there are at least 43 lesser prospects after him before you even get to McCullers or Vincent Velasquez. Meanwhile, BA put both of them ahead of Singleton on their Astros' Top 10.

But rather than bitch about their slighting of all things Astro, I think we should take a sec and appreciate how nice it is having Correa, who's yet to appear above low-A ball, ranked as the #5 overall prospect. Everyone else in the Top 10 has spent significant time at High-A or above.

In a year, we could have the #1 or #2, plus another top 5. I don't know if Appel goes too much higher, or if he'll graduate from the list, but that could be three top 20s with Springer already in the big leagues.

[ValpoCory]

Baseball America's Top 10 Astros Prospects
-------------------------------------------
1. Carlos Correa, ss
2. George Springer, of
3. Mark Appel, rhp
4. Mike Foltynewicz, rhp
5. Lance McCullers Jr., rhp
6. Vince Velasquez, rhp
7. Jonathan Singleton, 1b
8. Domingo Santana, of
9. Michael Feliz, rhp
10. Asher Wojciechowski, rhp


Interesting on that link that they claim Jordan Lyles is still with the Astros.

TOP PROSPECTS OF THE DECADE
Year    Player, Pos.    2013 Org.
2004    Taylor Buchholz, rhp    Out of baseball
2005    Chris Burke, 2b    Out of baseball
2006    Jason Hirsh, rhp    Amarillo (American Assoc.)
2007    Hunter Pence, of    Giants
2008    J.R. Towles, c    Dodgers
2009    Jason Castro, c    Astros
2010    Jason Castro, c    Astros
2011    Jordan Lyles, rhp    Astros
2012    Jonathan Singleton, rhp    Astros
2013    Carlos Correa, ss    Astros

[Reuben]

He was in 2013, which is what that lists.

[ValpoCory]

He was in 2013, which is what that lists.

Good catch.  My mistake.

[Duman]

Law's top 15 (insider)

1. Correa
2. Appel
3. Springer
4. Folty
5. Singleton
6. DDJ
7. Velasquez
8. McCullars
9. Ruiz
10 Feliz
11. Santana (said would be in any other teams top 10)
12. Teoscar Hernandez
13. Andrew Thurman
14. Wojo
15. Fontana

mentioned some short season power arms to watch: Jandel Gustave (101 MPH), Reymin Guduen (100 MPH), and Chris Lee (lefty hitting 95)

[juliogotay]

Law's top 15 (insider)

1. Correa
2. Appel
3. Springer
4. Folty
5. Singleton
6. DDJ
7. Velasquez
8. McCullars
9. Ruiz
10 Feliz
11. Santana (said would be in any other teams top 10)
12. Teoscar Hernandez
13. Andrew Thurman
14. Wojo
15. Fontana

mentioned some short season power arms to watch: Jandel Gustave (101 MPH), Reymin Guduen (100 MPH), and Chris Lee (lefty hitting 95)

Were Gustave and Guduen signed by Houston or acquired?

[juliogotay]

Appaarantly both were signed by Houston.

[Duman]

Gustave signed in 2010 and Reymin Guduen was signed in 2009 I think.

[roadrunner]

Another take on DDS, from Keith Law:

"Delino DeShields Jr. (No. 80), really needs to run out a ground ball every now and then -- and maybe try to slim down, as he's looking more like the running back he was supposed to be (he was committed to LSU for football and baseball) and less like a guy who can play in the middle of the field. On the bright side, however, his swing is still short and quick and I think he'll make plenty of hard contact."