Author Topic: Norris Trade or not to Trade (Read 3942 times)

Navin R Johnson · « **on:** May 08, 2013, 04:37:06 pm »

The first round of Trade deadline talk is starting. On a list of likely pitchers to be traded, Norris was listed as the 2nd most likely to be moved.

Bud makes $3 million this year, and is arbitration eligible next year. Any idea what he will likely make next season? If that number is reasonable, would you be inclined to move him? If someone was offering up some ridiculous package for him, you obviously take it. But assuming it isn't anything outrageous, do the Astros move him?

Mr. Happy · « **Reply #1 on:** May 08, 2013, 04:41:46 pm »

If the price is right, sure. But I wouldn't sell short.

Fredia · « **Reply #2 on:** May 08, 2013, 05:01:06 pm »

please dont trade he can pitch

Navin R Johnson · « **Reply #3 on:** May 08, 2013, 05:17:42 pm »

Quote from: Mr. Happy on May 08, 2013, 04:41:46 pm

If the price is right, sure. But I wouldn't sell short.

Curious, whats your opinion of Norris as pitcher?

Mr. Happy · « **Reply #4 on:** May 08, 2013, 07:04:37 pm »

Quote from: Navin R Johnson on May 08, 2013, 05:17:42 pm

Curious, whats your opinion of Norris as pitcher?

Frankly, I think that his highest and best use would be as a back of the bully pitcher. His home/road splits are too problematic for him to be an elite pitcher, especially since, unlike Lyles, he won't use his changeup enough, which makes him a two pitch pitcher. In the bully, two pitches are enough. Don't get me wrong, Norris has two plus pitches, but, in my opinion, he really needs that changeup as his equalizer to be able to consistently get through an order three times. He's had a decent season so far, so we'll have to see how he finishes.

juliogotay · « **Reply #5 on:** May 08, 2013, 09:27:48 pm »

I think it's not a matter of "if" Norris is traded but when. Eventually he will be to keep him from walking as a F.A. I don't see any way he would re-sign here unless the team makes incredible strides very quickly and they offer him alot of money...which they could do but probably won't. So, when is the best time to trade him. Probably at the trade deadline when you get desperate teams overpaying. Might as well be this year because if you wait next year you're taking on the risk of injury which devalues him. So, yea I think he's worth more this July when he has a couple of years under control for the buying team. I hate that this is the reality but I think it is.

Navin R Johnson · « **Reply #6 on:** May 08, 2013, 09:34:44 pm »

Quote from: juliogotay on May 08, 2013, 09:27:48 pm

I think it's not a matter of "if" Norris is traded but when. Eventually he will be to keep him from walking as a F.A. I don't see any way he would re-sign here unless the team makes incredible strides very quickly and they offer him alot of money...which they could do but probably won't. So, when is the best time to trade him. Probably at the trade deadline when you get desperate teams overpaying. Might as well be this year because if you wait next year you're taking on the risk of injury which devalues him. So, yea I think he's worth more this July when he has a couple of years under control for the buying team. I hate that this is the reality but I think it is.

He cant walk till after the 2015 season. So they have a ways to go till they have to worry about him walking away.

juliogotay · « **Reply #7 on:** May 08, 2013, 09:39:10 pm »

Quote from: Navin R Johnson on May 08, 2013, 09:34:44 pm

He cant walk till after the 2015 season. So they have a ways to go till they have to worry about him walking away.

Good. So is he worth more this year then he ever will be?

Bench · « **Reply #8 on:** May 08, 2013, 09:39:25 pm »

Quote from: Navin R Johnson on May 08, 2013, 09:34:44 pm

He cant walk till after the 2015 season. So they have a ways to go till they have to worry about him walking away.

But each year he gets closer to FA diminishes his trade value.

Navin R Johnson · « **Reply #9 on:** May 08, 2013, 09:45:22 pm »

Fair enough. I just wouldn't trade him unless they got a sweetheart deal. Maybe at the next deadline when we have found some credible options to start. If they can't get a top 3 prospect from someone and a couple others than no thanks.

juliogotay · « **Reply #10 on:** May 08, 2013, 10:00:50 pm »

Quote from: Navin R Johnson on May 08, 2013, 09:45:22 pm

Fair enough. I just wouldn't trade him unless they got a sweetheart deal. Maybe at the next deadline when we have found some credible options to start. If they can't get a top 3 prospect from someone and a couple others than no thanks.

I would expect him to bring a pretty good return. For a contending team he's a 3-4 pitcher in the rotation and if he's healthy can help someone.

Navin R Johnson · « **Reply #11 on:** May 09, 2013, 08:51:23 am »

Quote from: juliogotay on May 08, 2013, 10:00:50 pm

I would expect him to bring a pretty good return. For a contending team he's a 3-4 pitcher in the rotation and if he's healthy can help someone.

I would hope so or I hope they dont move him. Using Astros prospects as an example (since those are the guys I know), I would want someone along the lines of Springer or a Singleton in return. If I was getting offered something like Folty and a lower A guy, I would pass.

pots · « **Reply #12 on:** May 09, 2013, 08:54:41 am »

Quote from: Navin R Johnson on May 09, 2013, 08:51:23 am

I would hope so or I hope they dont move him. Using Astros prospects as an example (since those are the guys I know), I would want someone along the lines of Springer or a Singleton in return. If I was getting offered something like Folty and a lower A guy, I would pass.

Umm, I'd take someone like Folty. Folty should be well into the top 100 overall prospects the next time they make a list. He's throwing in the upper 90s. His stock has risen tremendously in the last 14 months.

2015 Starters of Folty, Folty 2, Tropeano, Cosart, Wojo, and Harrell. With McCullers and Velasquez waiting in the wings.

subnuclear · « **Reply #13 on:** May 09, 2013, 09:35:00 am »

You have given up on Lyles?

Ron Brand · « **Reply #14 on:** May 09, 2013, 09:36:55 am »

Quote from: subnuclear on May 09, 2013, 09:35:00 am

You have given up on Lyles?

No, he could be traded too.

Navin R Johnson · « **Reply #15 on:** May 09, 2013, 09:47:16 am »

Quote from: pots on May 09, 2013, 08:54:41 am

Umm, I'd take someone like Folty. Folty should be well into the top 100 overall prospects the next time they make a list. He's throwing in the upper 90s. His stock has risen tremendously in the last 14 months.

2015 Starters of Folty, Folty 2, Tropeano, Cosart, Wojo, and Harrell. With McCullers and Velasquez waiting in the wings.

5 Pitchers that have never pitched in MLB? The chances that all 4 of those guys are decent to even good MLB pitchers isn't good, especially considering that only 1 of the 5 is a highly rated prospect.

And who pitches in 2014? Or are we writing that season off already too. And by writing off I mean, just conceding 105+ losses, again.

Bench · « **Reply #16 on:** May 09, 2013, 09:50:35 am »

Quote from: Navin R Johnson on May 09, 2013, 09:47:16 am

And who pitches in 2014? Or are we writing that season off already too. And by writing off I mean, just conceding 105+ losses, again.

Yes.

jbm · « **Reply #17 on:** May 09, 2013, 09:51:09 am »

Quote from: Ron Brand on May 09, 2013, 09:36:55 am

No, he could be traded too.

Don't say that. I'm counting on him to be a mainstay.

It does bring up some questions: Is this the MO forever, or is there a point where they start trying to keep players, and if so, do they run the risk of having to make decisions on too many players at or near the same time? Lots of their prospects are close in age.

juliogotay · « **Reply #18 on:** May 09, 2013, 10:03:48 am »

Quote from: Navin R Johnson on May 09, 2013, 08:51:23 am

I would hope so or I hope they dont move him. Using Astros prospects as an example (since those are the guys I know), I would want someone along the lines of Springer or a Singleton in return. If I was getting offered something like Folty and a lower A guy, I would pass.

I would trade Norris for Folty clone in a heartbeat.

Ron Brand · « **Reply #19 on:** May 09, 2013, 10:06:13 am »

Quote from: jbm on May 09, 2013, 09:51:09 am

Don't say that. I'm counting on him to be a mainstay.

It does bring up some questions: Is this the MO forever, or is there a point where they start trying to keep players, and if so, do they run the risk of having to make decisions on too many players at or near the same time? Lots of their prospects are close in age.

Maybe I'll ax them this.

pots · « **Reply #20 on:** May 09, 2013, 10:12:49 am »

Quote from: Navin R Johnson on May 09, 2013, 09:47:16 am

5 Pitchers that have never pitched in MLB? The chances that all 4 of those guys are decent to even good MLB pitchers isn't good, especially considering that only 1 of the 5 is a highly rated prospect.

And who pitches in 2014? Or are we writing that season off already too. And by writing off I mean, just conceding 105+ losses, again.

I had 6 guys and I forgot about Lyles. So that's 7 top prospects all should be ready by 2015. (with 2 others knocking on the door by 2016)

ETA
And that doesn't include the Appel/Gray possibility. That's a possible 10 top guys by 2016

Navin R Johnson · « **Reply #21 on:** May 09, 2013, 11:06:14 am »

Quote from: juliogotay on May 09, 2013, 10:03:48 am

I would trade Norris for Folty clone in a heartbeat.

Why? 1 is a proven MLB commodity, the other has pitched 1 game in AA, and isn't a top flight prospect. If Folty turned out to be as good as Bud in MLB (More IP than Hits and almost a 1/1 IP to K ratio) that would be great, but the likelihood of that is?

Problem is, the Astros still need guys to throw this year and next year. You just can't run out 5 Humbers and Bedards.

If this was the trade deadline next year, then I would be more interested in a Bud for a Folty like prospect. This season I would want someone more like a Cosart. But that is JMO.

Reuben · « **Reply #22 on:** May 09, 2013, 11:48:34 am »

Quote from: Navin R Johnson on May 09, 2013, 11:06:14 am

Why? 1 is a proven MLB commodity, the other has pitched 1 game in AA, and isn't a top flight prospect. If Folty turned out to be as good as Bud in MLB (More IP than Hits and almost a 1/1 IP to K ratio) that would be great, but the likelihood of that is?

Problem is, the Astros still need guys to throw this year and next year. You just can't run out 5 Humbers and Bedards.

If this was the trade deadline next year, then I would be more interested in a Bud for a Folty like prospect. This season I would want someone more like a Cosart. But that is JMO.

You may be selling Folty short. Plenty of pro scouts probably rate him even with Cosart now, maybe even over. To me, they are both very intriguing guys. I like Norris but unless he can turn a corner with his changeup and control, he has limited upside.

juliogotay · « **Reply #23 on:** May 09, 2013, 11:51:11 am »

Quote from: Navin R Johnson on May 09, 2013, 11:06:14 am

Why? 1 is a proven MLB commodity, the other has pitched 1 game in AA, and isn't a top flight prospect. If Folty turned out to be as good as Bud in MLB (More IP than Hits and almost a 1/1 IP to K ratio) that would be great, but the likelihood of that is?

Problem is, the Astros still need guys to throw this year and next year. You just can't run out 5 Humbers and Bedards.

If this was the trade deadline next year, then I would be more interested in a Bud for a Folty like prospect. This season I would want someone more like a Cosart. But that is JMO.

I think you're selling Folty short. Or at least his toolset. I think he's every bit the prospect Cosart is.

Navin R Johnson · « **Reply #24 on:** May 09, 2013, 12:28:39 pm »

Fair enough, my knowledge on Folty comes from the Bus Ride and reading boxscores/stats.

My point is, I would be looking for someone in return that the Astros consider at Cosart's level. Top 100 guy, that should be ready to be called up by the end of this season. Getting a middling prospect or 2, with good upside that is 2 years away isn't worth trading for.

jbm · « **Reply #25 on:** May 09, 2013, 12:32:50 pm »

I saw his start, and would consider him a top prospect, certainly in the category with Cosart, Singleton and Springer, but even given that I think your point is valid. You have a known commodity versus an unknown. Even though the unknown might have more upside, it still has a greater risk. Not an easy call in my book.

pots · « **Reply #26 on:** May 09, 2013, 12:34:03 pm »

Quote from: Navin R Johnson on May 09, 2013, 11:06:14 am

Why? 1 is a proven MLB commodity, the other has pitched 1 game in AA, and isn't a top flight prospect. If Folty turned out to be as good as Bud in MLB (More IP than Hits and almost a 1/1 IP to K ratio) that would be great, but the likelihood of that is?

Problem is, the Astros still need guys to throw this year and next year. You just can't run out 5 Humbers and Bedards.

If this was the trade deadline next year, then I would be more interested in a Bud for a Folty like prospect. This season I would want someone more like a Cosart. But that is JMO.

This year is going to be painful no matter what. But in the chance that Norris gets traded, next year you are looking at Harrell, Lyles, Cosart, Tropeano, Woj. Backed up by the plethora of temporary stand ins (Peacock, Clemens, Cisnero, Oberholtzer, Ely, Keuchel, White, etc.). Woj fits your original point of don't give me one of those and a Low A guy.

I'm asuming guys like Seaton and Owens wash out.

roadrunner · « **Reply #27 on:** May 09, 2013, 01:26:04 pm »

I'm fine with trading Bud if it's for 1 top prospect. I would rather keep him than trade for 3-4 fringe prospects like the last few deals hoping that one of them becomes the pitcher Bud is today.

pots · « **Reply #28 on:** May 09, 2013, 01:52:07 pm »

Quote from: roadrunner on May 09, 2013, 01:26:04 pm

I'm fine with trading Bud if it's for 1 top prospect. I would rather keep him than trade for 3-4 fringe prospects like the last few deals hoping that one of them becomes the pitcher Bud is today.

Like the Mets did for Zack Wheeler.

juliogotay · « **Reply #29 on:** May 09, 2013, 02:20:16 pm »

Quote from: pots on May 09, 2013, 01:52:07 pm

Like the Mets did for Zack Wheeler.

And the Astros did for Bourn. We have plenty of fringe prospects....don't need more.

Fredia · « **Reply #30 on:** May 09, 2013, 02:23:47 pm »

did you watch the show fringe kinda reminds you of what is happening with the astros. i so love the game but dont always understand the moves , especially now

pots · « **Reply #31 on:** May 09, 2013, 02:35:41 pm »

Quote from: juliogotay on May 09, 2013, 02:20:16 pm

And the Astros did for Bourn. We have plenty of fringe prospects....don't need more.

Mets Traed Beltran for one top prospect: Zack Wheeler. That was an eaxample of what we'd like to see