Excellent BP Article on the Astros

[roadrunner]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20073

I think you need a subscription, but this is the best article I've read about the state of the team.  Here are few excerpts:

Their entire 2013 payroll is under $20 million, which many pundits delight in telling you is less than many individual players will make this year! Other pundits will claim that Houston’s minuscule payroll is somehow an affront to baseball, or that the Astros are “cheating the game.” Or the fans. Or something.
 
The people who write these columns are usually older writers from the mainstream media, i.e. newspapers. I understand that these guys (they’re always guys) are under tremendous pressure to produce content and that they have to write about something. And that there is an audience for material like this; a certain segment of the population is happy to read articles that demonize athletes or franchises. But the fundamental problem is that the premise is simply not true.

This isn’t frugality for its own sake; it’s decidedly NOT the Marlins. This is Luhnow establishing the groundwork for a future contender. You might not agree with his premises and you might not believe it will work, and that opinion is certainly valid. But claiming the Astros “should” or “need to” spend a bunch of money to meet some arbitrary rules you made up is just horseshit. Look: if Luhnow is wrong, you’ll be able to look back and point and laugh and gloat. But what if he’s right? If the Astros win it all in 2017, it’ll be, in part, because Carlos Peña was his priciest free agent in 2013 at $2.9 million.

Old lamestream media guys aren’t the only ones who are taking aim at the Astros, though. Professional jerk Darren Rovell tweeted that the only reason to attend an Astros game would be to get a sad-looking hamburger. I guess Rovell doesn’t enjoy watching Jose Altuve hit RBI singles off of pitches up around his eyes. Or see Matt Dominguez make great plays look routine. Or see Justin Maxwell hit two triples in a game. Or see Rick Ankiel, one of the greatest comeback stories in baseball, hit a pinch-hit three-run bomb to put the game on ice for the home team. He probably hates the three-inning save, too.
 
Look, I get it. Not everyone is crazy for baseball like I am, and like I assume you are. That’s fine; I don’t require you to value the things I value. But saying a hamburger is more exciting than Justin Maxwell? That just makes you look dumb, dude. This is an exciting young team. Or if it’s not, it’s a young team with some exciting players on it. They might actually lose 100 games -- our projections have them losing 94 -- but I really do admire the guts Luhnow and his staff is showing.

[Ty in Tampa]

"But saying a hamburger is more exciting than Justin Maxwell? That just makes you look dumb, dude."

I use this exact retort when talking with many of my so-called-baseball-fan friends.

[ferret]

3 quibbles, Luhnow is getting ready to set the ground for a future contender.  He's in the soil amendments-organic aisle at Lowe's right now.  Few of the players we are watching today will be on the contender of the future. "Laughing" or "gloating" might be on some people's future to do list, but I'm watching baseball today.  Anticipating self congratulation is not why I watch.

[roadrunner]

3 quibbles, Luhnow is getting ready to set the ground for a future contender.  He's in the soil amendments-organic aisle at Lowe's right now.  Few of the players we are watching today will be on the contender of the future. "Laughing" or "gloating" might be on some people's future to do list, but I'm watching baseball today.  Anticipating self congratulation is not why I watch.

The point of the article isn't to watch so that you can gloat in 2017.  The point is that it is absurd to act like what the Astros are doing is offensive to fans or the game without at least acknowledging their strategy.  They are going out on a limb with what they are doing, but they think it's right and are doing it 100%.  You should watch because this is a rebuild process unlike any other in baseball history.  That, and the team has some exciting pieces.  Plus it's baseball which is better than a hamburger (well...most burgers).

[subnuclear]

I'm not sure what is so unique about it. The Pirates and Royals spent a lot of the last two decades "rebuilding" and trading their good starters for cheap, younger players (and being very profitable). The Rays and Nationals have both rebuilt successfully through smart drafting and they weren't the first to do it.

A large group of people are really pissed about the huge contracts going out to veteran players and they support the Astros because they aren't participating in that even though they have the market to support it. However, those people don't seem to be watching the team play very much.

[jbm]

No doubt, it is not unique.  I guess if one believes the Astros are dumping their players so they can lose and reap the benefits of more draft money, then this appears unique.  In this scenario, the uniqueness would be a result of the new talent acquisition rules, which weren't in play for the Nats or the Rays and all the other rebuilding teams.

I just don't believe the gain from such a strategy, a few million more in talent acquisition money, is going to be that significant over the long haul, and would therefore never justify the negative effects of a tanking strategy.  I don't think Luhnow or Crane believes this either, they are just trying to quickly retire the debt. 

[ferret]

The point of the article isn't to watch so that you can gloat in 2017.  The point is that it is absurd to act like what the Astros are doing is offensive to fans or the game without at least acknowledging their strategy.  They are going out on a limb with what they are doing, but they think it's right and are doing it 100%.  You should watch because this is a rebuild process unlike any other in baseball history.  That, and the team has some exciting pieces.  Plus it's baseball which is better than a hamburger (well...most burgers).

I know what the point of the article is.  It is the never ending stats v scouts strawman.  Including the part about critiques of the Astros setting up future gloating and "I told you sos" says more about the writer.  The use of "lamestream media" is also a tell.  If the "rebuilding" is "unique" why all the moneyball references? 

[roadrunner]

I know what the point of the article is.  It is the never ending stats v scouts strawman.  Including the part about critiques of the Astros setting up future gloating and "I told you sos" says more about the writer.  The use of "lamestream media" is also a tell.  If the "rebuilding" is "unique" why all the moneyball references? 

It's not stats vs scouts.  It's just pointing out that the demeaning articles are avoiding the pertinent facts of the strategy.  The "A-Rod is making more than the Astros" narrative is incomplete.  If anything, I would argue that is knock against the Yankees but it is consistently presented as a jab against the Astros.

Unique probably isn't the right word for the rebuild.  Extreme is probably a better word.

Obviously the BPs and Fangraphs of the baseball world are going to jump on the Astros bandwagon.  If you want to roll your eyes at them, that's fine, but at least they are trying to look at the complete picture.

[ferret]

Unique is a very specific word with a specific meaning.  Obviously is another word.  If you think BP and Fangraph are "obviously" jumping on the Astros bandwagon, what could the reason be?  It's because they think success under Luhnow is inevitable, why?  Obviously because they approve of his methods and believe them to be foolproof. His "methods" are not unique. In the meantime we have a team that is unwatchable.  I count Justin Maxwell's unconsidered dives into the unknown after uncatchable balls part of the unwatchableness.

Here's an article from SI, with this quote smack in the middle of it,

incorporating cutting-edge sabermetric ideas — the kind of outside-the-box thinking that keyed a culture war in the wake of Michael Lewis’ Moneyball more than a decade (!) ago — along with more traditional ones. As Oakland general manager Billy Beane can attest, such attempts to go against the grain in an inherently conservative industry are guaranteed to generate controversy. Houston’s setbacks may be cheered by traditionalists still looking to hammer that wooden stake into Moneyball despite the fact that the past decade has seen virtually every team integrate advanced statistical analysis into its front office processes,

Luhnow's ideas aren't generating controversy.  These are decades old ideas. Fielding an uncompetitive team and calling fans who know crap when they see it lacking in sophistication while the owner sneers, is.

[VirtualBob]

I know what the point of the article is.  It is the never ending stats v scouts strawman.  Including the part about critiques of the Astros setting up future gloating and "I told you sos" says more about the writer.  The use of "lamestream media" is also a tell.  If the "rebuilding" is "unique" why all the moneyball references? 

Exactly!

Unique is a very specific word with a specific meaning.  ... In the meantime we have a team that is unwatchable. 
...
Luhnow's ideas aren't generating controversy.  These are decades old ideas. Fielding an uncompetitive team and calling fans who know crap when they see it lacking in sophistication while the owner sneers, is.

And again!

This is why we need you back here on a more regular basis!

[matadorph]

Good points, ferret. I approve of the total "burn it down and build it back up" philosophy the front office has adopted but am tired of the predictable responses from the sabermetrics crowd. You are correct, this isn't anything new but because Luhnow is the kind of guy they call their own, everything they write about him will be glowing and almost always refer to him as smart and intelligent and his choices as well-reasoned ones born of math and logic. I know it's not a perfect comparison but the "advanced stats" crowd have been saying the same of Daryl Morey for a long time, yet the Rockets still aren't championship contenders.

[Navin R Johnson]

Luhnow's ideas aren't generating controversy.  These are decades old ideas. Fielding an uncompetitive team and calling fans who know crap when they see it lacking in sophistication while the owner sneers, is.

But if they would have spent an extra $10-15 million on a free agent then that means we couldn't rebuild the farm system as quickly, which is code for paying down the debt faster.

[Ron Brand]

Good points, ferret. I approve of the total "burn it down and build it back up" philosophy the front office has adopted but am tired of the predictable responses from the sabermetrics crowd. You are correct, this isn't anything new but because Luhnow is the kind of guy they call their own, everything they write about him will be glowing and almost always refer to him as smart and intelligent and his choices as well-reasoned ones born of math and logic. I know it's not a perfect comparison but the "advanced stats" crowd have been saying the same of Daryl Morey for a long time, yet the Rockets still aren't championship contenders.

This is the same crowd who praised Purpura as the Second Coming.

[MusicMan]

I know it's not a perfect comparison but the "advanced stats" crowd have been saying the same of Daryl Morey for a long time, yet the Rockets still aren't championship contenders.

Yeah, it's almost as though major sports franchises have difficulty when they lose the best two players on their roster with nothing in return.

[roadrunner]

Unique is a very specific word with a specific meaning.  Obviously is another word.  If you think BP and Fangraph are "obviously" jumping on the Astros bandwagon, what could the reason be?  It's because they think success under Luhnow is inevitable, why?  Obviously because they approve of his methods and believe them to be foolproof. His "methods" are not unique. In the meantime we have a team that is unwatchable.  I count Justin Maxwell's unconsidered dives into the unknown after uncatchable balls part of the unwatchableness.

Here's an article from SI, with this quote smack in the middle of it,

incorporating cutting-edge sabermetric ideas — the kind of outside-the-box thinking that keyed a culture war in the wake of Michael Lewis’ Moneyball more than a decade (!) ago — along with more traditional ones. As Oakland general manager Billy Beane can attest, such attempts to go against the grain in an inherently conservative industry are guaranteed to generate controversy. Houston’s setbacks may be cheered by traditionalists still looking to hammer that wooden stake into Moneyball despite the fact that the past decade has seen virtually every team integrate advanced statistical analysis into its front office processes,

Luhnow's ideas aren't generating controversy.  These are decades old ideas. Fielding an uncompetitive team and calling fans who know crap when they see it lacking in sophistication while the owner sneers, is.

I don't think Luhnow's sabermetrics strategy is the focus of the article or even the reason BP and Fangraphs are on board with the new front office.  Every organization in baseball (except the Phillies) has an analytical sabermetrics group on some level.  We've had a movie with Brad Pitt about sabermetrics.  Baseball teams using sabermetrics isn't news. 

The reason BP and Fangraphs are on board with the Astros is because this rebuild process is one of the most extreme cases ever seen.  These websites/publications are highlighting the process of prudent spending and are genuinely interested to see what the consequences will be since that is what has scared teams off from employing this strategy in the past. 

Of course, the writers and contributors to these publications enjoy baseball far beyond watching their favorite team every night (and their favorite team isn't the Astros) so their opinions are going to be different than most fans on SnS.  I do think that they all seem to be missing the piece about Crane and his ownership paying down debt. 

[JimR]

I don't think Luhnow's sabermetrics strategy is the focus of the article or even the reason BP and Fangraphs are on board with the new front office.  Every organization in baseball (except the Phillies) has an analytical sabermetrics group on some level.  We've had a movie with Brad Pitt about sabermetrics.  Baseball teams using sabermetrics isn't news. 

The reason BP and Fangraphs are on board with the Astros is because this rebuild process is one of the most extreme cases ever seen.  These websites/publications are highlighting the process of prudent spending and are genuinely interested to see what the consequences will be since that is what has scared teams off from employing this strategy in the past. 

Of course, the writers and contributors to these publications enjoy baseball far beyond watching their favorite team every night (and their favorite team isn't the Astros) so their opinions are going to be different than most fans on SnS.  I do think that they all seem to be missing the piece about Crane and his ownership paying down debt. 

Luhnow wrote the Foreword for BP's 2013 Annual. He is one of them. They will praise every move he makes.

[roadrunner]

Luhnow wrote the Foreword for BP's 2013 Annual. He is one of them. They will praise every move he makes.

I'm not disagreeing with that. 

[ferret]

Also, I'm livid that I'm expected to find the final dregs of the career or Rick Ankiel entertaining.  Signing Walt Weiss to throw knuckleballs would hardly be worse.

[MusicMan]

Also, I'm livid that I'm expected to find the final dregs of the career or Rick Ankiel entertaining. 

You need better targets for your raeg.

[ferret]

You need better targets for your raeg.

In truth, I don't waste any thought on Ankiel and very little on the Astros.

[VirtualBob]

In truth, I don't waste any thought on Ankiel and very little on the Astros.

He's the team MVP right now ... His batting average is not much, but he leads the team in RBI and hits a HR 50% of the time he makes contact and without that power, the Astros would be 0-7.

[Bench]

He's the team MVP right now ... His batting average is not much, but he leads the team in RBI and hits a HR 50% of the time he makes contact and without that power, the Astros would be 0-7.

I know you are being mostly tongue in cheek, but it's worth a look at the raw numbers.  Rick Ankiel's 14 PA this year, in order: HR, K, K, K, line out, K, K, K, K, K, K, K, K, K.

[Limey]

I know you are being mostly tongue in cheek, but it's worth a look at the raw numbers.  Rick Ankiel's 14 PA this year, in order: HR, K, K, K, line out, K, K, K, K, K, K, K, K, K.

What the fuck do you expect if you let a pitcher bat?  I thought we moved to the AL to get away from that shit!


ETA:  My other joke here was that he swings just like he pitches...for the fences.

[VirtualBob]

I know you are being mostly completely tongue in cheek, but it's worth a look at the raw numbers.  Rick Ankiel's 14 PA this year, in order: HR, K, K, K, line out, K, K, K, K, K, K, K, K, K.

FIFY

[Bench]

FIFY

I didn't say completely because your point, even in jest, is sadly true.