The piggyback system

[moriartp]

Jayne over at WTHB got some good info (as she has a habit of doing) from Luhnow about what approach the organization might take with its pitching depth this season. The article's a few weeks old, but I don't think I've seen it mentioned here yet. Looks like we'll probably see a piggyback system in at least a few cases, allowing more pitchers to work as starters at the proper level for their development.

Link

[Jacksonian]

Assuming the guys competing for a spot in the rotation all pitch well enough to earn at least the #5 spot, I'm going to guess the rotation is Harrell, Norris, (those 2 are locks), then the guys who are out of options, Humber and Bedard (who has said if he doesn't make the team he'll look elsewhere), then one guy with options.  I'll guess that guy is Lyles.  If all the rest of the pitchers stay in the org then you have left to divvy up between AAA and AA:

KEUCHEL
WHITE
GONZALEZ
WEILAND
CISNERO
COSART
OBERHOLTZER
OWENS
ELY
PEACOCK
SEATON
CLEMENS
DORAN
HEIDENREICH
WOJCIECHOWSKI

That's 15 guys for 10 rotation spots.  To keep them all in the rotation the Astros would have to go with 5 piggybacks.  That's half of the rotation spots.  Of course they could move a couple of guys down to high-A and take a spot there or piggyback with another pitcher.  And the list above doesn't include the guys who were at high-A last year:

ALANIZ
CAIN
PEREZ
TROPEANO
WALTERS

Some of those guys surely deserve a promotion.

Use this as a list to track the happenings.

Add:

MUSICK

[Reuben]

It's also possible that they jump Folty to Corpus, though probably not likely.

I'd imagine Keuchel and Weiland could be shifted to the bullpen, and certainly Edgar Gonzalez isn't a priority for innings. Still a very crowded bunch, and I would think Tropeano, at least, deserves a shot at CC.

[pots]

It's also possible that they jump Folty to Corpus, though probably not likely.

I'd imagine Keuchel and Weiland could be shifted to the bullpen, and certainly Edgar Gonzalez isn't a priority for innings. Still a very crowded bunch, and I would think Tropeano, at least, deserves a shot at CC.

 

I agree the Trop should be at CC.  With all the guys from TriCity pushing for spots in Quad City there will be plenty of guys to move to Lancaster.  

Also Wes Musick should be added to the list as well.  Could see Clemens shifted to the pen.  Don't know why Keuchel  is headed to the pen at this point.

[Jacksonian]

 

I agree the Trop should be at CC.  With all the guys from TriCity pushing for spots in Quad City there will be plenty of guys to move to Lancaster.  

Also Wes Musick should be added to the list as well.  Could see Clemens shifted to the pen.  Don't know why Keuchel  is headed to the pen at this point.

Who ends up where and the volume of potential starters was the point of the post.  It'll be interesting to see who the brain trust sends to the different levels and to the pen.

[pots]

  Don't know why Keuchel  is headed to the pen at this point.

Just to pile on this point.  I don't know why people have thrown in the towel on this guy.  He started 32 games last year, 5 more than he ever had professionally.  His 16 games in Houston were a roller coaster ride for sure, but he was having a good September(2 ER in 16.1 innings over 3 starts) before the beating he took in his last start.  

[Jacksonian]

Just to pile on this point.  I don't know why people have thrown in the towel on this guy.  He started 32 games last year, 5 more than he ever had professionally.  His 16 games in Houston were a roller coaster ride for sure, but he was having a good September(2 ER in 16.1 innings over 3 starts) before the beating he took in his last start.  

Because he's a movement and location only pitcher.  He has no pitch that is so good he can go back to it again and again and get outs.  So, he is constantly walking a very fine line.  The more pitches he throws in a game the more likely he is to get lit.  Personally I think his final resting spot will be long relief.

[roadrunner]

I wouldn't care if they did this with the major league team for a couple of months.  This whole thing seems to be one big experiment anyways.

[Duman]

You can piggy back all you want, there is still a limit on roster spots.  There will be a bunch of pitchers released during & after spring training.  They might hide some in extended for a while as insurance but eventually you have to either put them on a roster or release them.  Many pitchers are pitching for their jobs this spring.

[Reuben]

You can piggy back all you want, there is still a limit on roster spots.  There will be a bunch of pitchers released during & after spring training.  They might hide some in extended for a while as insurance but eventually you have to either put them on a roster or release them.  Many pitchers are pitching for their jobs this spring.

Hence the inherent problem (along with the 40-man roster squeeze) with all these 3 or 4-for-1 "depth" type trades.

Pots: Clemens to the pen is a good call. That's what scouts seem to have seen him as all along anyway, and after his rough 2012, they may be ready to see what he can do in short relief.

[Mr. Happy]

Just to pile on this point.  I don't know why people have thrown in the towel on this guy.  He started 32 games last year, 5 more than he ever had professionally.  His 16 games in Houston were a roller coaster ride for sure, but he was having a good September(2 ER in 16.1 innings over 3 starts) before the beating he took in his last start.  

We're "piling on" because Keuchel has no big league out pitch, and the chances of him developing one are nil. He is a nibbler and has marginal big league talent. Contrary to your assessment, I see his only big league future is as a situational lefty, and I'm not encouraging there either. He had many starts last year to show what he had. I just didn't see anything. My acid test for a lefty is "would he be in the big leagues as a righthander?" For Keuchel, the answer is no.

[pots]

We're "piling on" because Keuchel has no big league out pitch, and the chances of him developing one are nil. He is a nibbler and has marginal big league talent. Contrary to your assessment, I see his only big league future is as a situational lefty, and I'm not encouraging there either. He had many starts last year to show what he had. I just didn't see anything. My acid test for a lefty is "would he be in the big leagues as a righthander?" For Keuchel, the answer is no.

True he doesn't have an out pitch.  And he's got no chance to be a front end starter.  But he had moments of success last year, pitching well in 9 of 16 starts.  If he improves on his first year, as a control sinkerball pitcher he could be a very useful back end starter in a couple of years.  Or just as likely to wash out.  I don't see the situational lefty.  Maybe long relief.  Either way, he'll have to dominate AAA to get another shot this year with all the arms they brought in

[Jacksonian]

I'm aware he doesn't have an out pitch.  And he's got no chance to be a front end starter.  But he had moments of success last year, pitching well in 9 of 16 starts.  If he improves on his first year, as a control sinkerball pitcher he could be a very useful back end starter in a couple of years.  Or just a likely to wash out.  I don't see the situational lefty.  Maybe long relief. 

I'm not worrying about who can be a #5 starter/long reliever on this team now or in the future.  I'll be more concerned about what the Astros have if Keuchel is slotted above most of the other pitchers battling for one of those last starter spots.  Though, Keuchel to the Astros pen is a real possibility.

The guys on the 40 man who realistically have a shot at the pen:
Ambriz
Cedeno
Cosart
Cruz
Demel
Fields
Veras
Wright

That's just 2 lefties.  I think Keuchel might really be in that mix at the end of spring training.

[Ebby Calvin]

The guys on the 40 man who realistically have a shot at the pen:
Ambriz
Cedeno
Cosart
Cruz
Demel
Fields
Veras
Wright

Are you down on Cosart or do you see a 'pen slot as some sort of experience/confidence builder?

[Reuben]

---
That's just 2 lefties.  I think Keuchel might really be in that mix at the end of spring training.

I think you're right. He did hold LH batters to a .255/.269/.283 line in AAA last year, with an absurd 2 BB in 109 PA. Majors, not as good, .250/.333/.417, but still way better than his numbers against RH batters. I'm surprised because this is a guy who was voted to have the best changeup in his league in 2010 and 2011, so you'd think that would be a weapon more vs. righties.

[pots]

That's just 2 lefties.  I think Keuchel might really be in that mix at the end of spring training.

Interesting. Certainly make Keuchel a possibility. Wonder if Bedard would consider the pen if it meant he could stay.  Chapman is probably at least a half season away from his first shot.  Escalona coming off Tommy John, don't know his time table.

ETA.  

Actually it sounds like Escalona might be in the mix. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130213&content_id=41599958&notebook_id=41600198&vkey=notebook_hou&c_id=hou

If he is ready that would seemingly put 3 lefties ahead of him in bullpen consideration.

[Jacksonian]

Are you down on Cosart or do you see a 'pen slot as some sort of experience/confidence builder?

Nope.  I think he's a closer in the making.

[Jacksonian]

Interesting. Certainly make Keuchel a possibility. Wonder if Bedard would consider the pen if it meant he could stay.  Chapman is probably at least a half season away from his first shot.  Escalona coming off Tommy John, don't know his time table.

ETA.  

Actually it sounds like Escalona might be in the mix. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130213&content_id=41599958&notebook_id=41600198&vkey=notebook_hou&c_id=hou

If he is ready that would seemingly put 3 lefties ahead of him in bullpen consideration.

Except that Escalona is not on the 40-man which is why I didn't include him.  Still I think we should expect quite a bit of movement amongst the pitchers as spring training moves along.

[jbm]

We're "piling on" because Keuchel has no big league out pitch, and the chances of him developing one are nil. He is a nibbler and has marginal big league talent. Contrary to your assessment, I see his only big league future is as a situational lefty, and I'm not encouraging there either. He had many starts last year to show what he had. I just didn't see anything. My acid test for a lefty is "would he be in the big leagues as a righthander?" For Keuchel, the answer is no.

Lots of lefties with major league careers wouldn't have passed that test.

IMO, the jury is still out on Keuchel.  It's not likely, but not out of the question either.

[jbm]

Nope.  I think he's a closer in the making.

I keep reading this from various places and recently read Luhnow say this wasn't his current plan.

Personally, I have never understood this assessment on Cosart, especially so early in his career and given the dearth of starters in the organization.  Cosart has way more to offer than Norris did at roughly equal points in their careers, and they still haven't moved Norris to the pen.

[Mr. Happy]

Lots of lefties with major league careers wouldn't have passed that test.

IMO, the jury is still out on Keuchel.  It's not likely, but not out of the question either.

You're right. I just don't like the thought of having a lefty or two on the staff who don't have more talent than some other right handed pitchers just for the sake of having lefties. In my opinion, they must bring something to the table. Maybe their forte is getting left-handed hitters out. But they have to have some specific skill to rate a roster spot in my opinion. If your top 10-12 pitchers are all righties, then that's whom you should take north.

[Jacksonian]

One AAA bullpen arm gone.  Hamburger got released.

[roadrunner]

One AAA bullpen arm gone.  Hamburger got released.

Was he from the Wandy deal?

[Jacksonian]

Was he from the Wandy deal?

No.  He was a wavier pick-up from San Diego.  The Astros still have the three they got in the Wandy deal.

[Reuben]

No.  He was a wavier pick-up from San Diego.  The Astros still have the three they got in the Wandy deal.

Partly for my own benefit, to help keep them all straight:

Robbie Grossman, OF spent last year in AA, did pretty well, will likely start at OKC this year
Rudy Owens, LH SP spent 2011 & 2012 in AAA, haven't seen him listed as HOU staff candidate so I guess back to OKC
Colton Cain, LH SP spent last year in A+, but struggled. Just turned 22, so maybe he'll repeat LAN?

Baseball America rated Grossman 17th among Astros prospects. Opinions of him seem to vary widely. Neither Owens nor Cain made BA's top 30, but last year they were 16th and 13th, respectively, on the Pirates' Top 30 (Grossman was 8th).

[Mr. Happy]

Partly for my own benefit, to help keep them all straight:

Robbie Grossman, OF spent last year in AA, did pretty well, will likely start at OKC this year
Rudy Owens, LH SP spent 2011 & 2012 in AAA, haven't seen him listed as HOU staff candidate so I guess back to OKC
Colton Cain, LH SP spent last year in A+, but struggled. Just turned 22, so maybe he'll repeat LAN?

Baseball America rated Grossman 17th among Astros prospects. Opinions of him seem to vary widely. Neither Owens nor Cain made BA's top 30, but last year they were 16th and 13th, respectively, on the Pirates' Top 30 (Grossman was 8th).

Grossman played like a capable big leaguer in today's ST opener. He seems like a very smart player who isn't likely to make mental errors.

[Ron Brand]

They had some nice things to say about him in the postgame too. Safe to say that he's made an impression on Porter.

[Reuben]

Luhnow says the Astros will use the tandem/"piggyback" system at OKC, CC, LAN, and QC this year.
link

Also of note, Folty is apparently starting the season in LAN, not CC.

[Bench]

Luhnow says the Astros will use the tandem/"piggyback" system at OKC, CC, LAN, and QC this year.
link

That should be interesting.  How do short inning relievers get high pressure game experience? Or is the theory that the future short inning relievers are going found in the current tandem starters crop?  

[Ron Brand]

I think the plan is to start with this and by July or so see who has separated from the pack and adjust accordingly to something more traditional. Right now they have a lot of similar pitchers and want to see what they've got.

[astrosfan76]

Luhnow says the Astros will use the tandem/"piggyback" system at OKC, CC, LAN, and QC this year.
link

Also of note, Folty is apparently starting the season in LAN, not CC.

Seaton gets bumped back down to Corpus for his third season there. Looking at the list of AAA pitchers, I see the logic, but it's got to suck being sent back down. He wasn't bad there last year and his numbers in 4 starts at OKC were good. But, if they had any faith in him, you'd think they would have found a way to fit him in.

[jbm]

It does seem that way. 

Although he can develop in CC as well as he can in OKC, it must be a tough pill to swallow. 

[Reuben]

Seaton gets bumped back down to Corpus for his third season there. Looking at the list of AAA pitchers, I see the logic, but it's got to suck being sent back down. He wasn't bad there last year and his numbers in 4 starts at OKC were good. But, if they had any faith in him, you'd think they would have found a way to fit him in.

Yeah, seems like they could slot Clemens in the pen (where he seems destined to move anyway) and have Seaton in the rotation.

[Duman]

Interesting article/paper on tandem pitching staffs

[Ron Brand]

I'm sure they've got Binders Full of Competitive Analyses, but seeing this in March is kinda exciting. I have no idea if it'll work, but I'm glad they're demonstrating a willingness to try new things in order to close the gaps.

[Nate Colbert]

Interesting article/paper on tandem pitching staffs

It's an intriguing argument, but doesn't the guy stack the deck when constructing his theoretical pitching staff? Even if they are "average" major league pitchers, doesn't it presume a huge supply of pitching prospects reaching the big leagues every year for that organization to replace pitchers who would be leaving due to free agency or otherwise too costly due to arbitration? And the over-the-hill veterans you'd sign to plug in gaps are by their very definition "below average" and not average MLB pitchers.

[VirtualBob]

Interesting article/paper on tandem pitching staffs

Someone will probably do this at the MLB level ... maybe even the Astros in 2014.

Also, a slight variation would be to have one (or maybe two) "top of the order" starters, then 2-3 pairs of "average" starters ... either the "not top of order anymore" or the "not yet ready for top of order" category.  Having a real Ace would (as suggested in the article) be a great marketing move (especially with dynamic pricing!). 

We woud need to come up with a new stat, though, for the guy who pitches four innings and leaves with the lead.  A sort of "pre-hold".

[juliogotay]

Someone will probably do this at the MLB level ... maybe even the Astros in 2014.

Also, a slight variation would be to have one (or maybe two) "top of the order" starters, then 2-3 pairs of "average" starters ... either the "not top of order anymore" or the "not yet ready for top of order" category.  Having a real Ace would (as suggested in the article) be a great marketing move (especially with dynamic pricing!). 

We woud need to come up with a new stat, though, for the guy who pitches four innings and leaves with the lead.  A sort of "pre-hold".

They pretty much did it Sunday night. Worked pretty well.

[Reuben]

From twitterland:

jluhnow Opening day for minor leagues... Lyles/Clemens (AAA), Seaton/Buchanan (AA), Foltynewicz/Gillingham (A+) and Velasquez-Bircher (A) pitching

[Navin R Johnson]

Curious, anyone read any quotes from players on how they feel about this system?

[Reuben]

Curious, anyone read any quotes from players on how they feel about this system?

I'd imagine at least 2-3 of each group of 8 are heavily in favor of it.

[astrosfan76]

Luhnow interview with Rosenthal about the tandem system.  Some things I did not know:

'By forcing a tandem system, you’re basically saying, These eight guys are the priority guys, plus one closer. To a certain extent, you’ve got a little more top-down control over how innings in the minor leagues get allocated. You know that those eight guys plus the closer are going to get the innings that they need.'

As part of the system, the Astros award letter grades to their starters after each outing, as if they were still in school...'There are two things we need to see,' Luhnow said. 'We need to see their effectiveness...Also, we rely on an assessment of their health. If you’re getting consistently a high GPA on pitching and on health, we’re going to allow you go deeper into games, pitch more innings.'

He goes into more detail if you want to check out the article and also touches on a couple of other organization-wide philosophies, like approach with a 3-2 count.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/houston-astros-jeff-luhnow-method-to-their-madness-ken-rosenthal-opinion-043013

[pots]

Well, it has been a couple of months. No idea what their plans are but here is a shot at breaking up the tandems:

OKC:
Cosart
Wojo
Buchanan
Oberholtzer
Seaton

Cut:
Humber

CC:
Folty
David Martinez
Tropeano
Doran
Quevedo

To the pen:
Heidenreich
Alaniz

Lancaster:
Rodgers
Rollins
West
Cruz
Hallock

To the pen:
Devenski (darn it)
Perez
Walters

QC:
McCullers
Velasquez
Jankowski
Minor
Hauschild

To the pen:
Holmes
Cain
Cotton

[pots]

Option 2 (Seaton to the pen)

OKC:
Cosart
Wojo
Buchanan
Oberholtzer
David Martinez

To pen:
Seaton

Cut:
Humber

CC:
Folty
Tropeano
Doran
Quevedo
Rodgers

To the pen:
Heidenreich
Alaniz

Lancaster:
Rollins
West
Cruz
Hallock
Devenski

To the pen:
Perez
Walters

QC:
McCullers
Velasquez
Jankowski
Minor
Hauschild

To the pen:
Holmes
Cain
Cotton