BP Top 10

[roadrunner]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18831

Need a subscription for the full breakdown, but the list is there.

[Reuben]

I'm curious what they say about Villar. My other initial thought is, if Lance McCullers is only your 9th-best prospect, you're probably in OK shape.

But what's with the fucking "Maxwell's Silver Hammer" quote for State of the Farm? Just a reference to the org's new "analytical" approach? If so, lame.

[astrosfan76]

Fair enough list.  I might change 8-10, but it's not a big enough issue to argue.  

[jbm]

I find the list and the analysis well done.  Parks does a better job than KG did, and a better job than BA, IMO.

As to the text on Villar: still has the tools, but is still too immature and sloppy.  My synopsis, as I am pressed for time. 

[astrosfan76]

I'm curious what they say about Villar. My other initial thought is, if Lance McCullers is only your 9th-best prospect, you're probably in OK shape.

But what's with the fucking "Maxwell's Silver Hammer" quote for State of the Farm? Just a reference to the org's new "analytical" approach? If so, lame.

I'm guessing that they just see the same with Villar that they have been seeing.  His 2011 and 2012 splits at CC are in almost identical AB and he improved across the board.  Granted, outside of SB and BA (from .231 to a modest .261), there wasn't a huge jump in any stat.  But, he's still a guy you dream on and he's showing some improvement.  Unlike some things, you can at least say that his career hasn't hit a wall.

[Jacksonian]

I would not have Villar in the top 10. I would have put Tropeano at 10.  Otherwise the list seems reasonable to me.

[roadrunner]

I would not have Villar in the top 10. I would have put Tropeano at 10.  Otherwise the list seems reasonable to me.

Parks said via Twitter that Trop was discussed for #10 but they put Folty on instead due to his higher ceiling.

[Reuben]

I'm guessing that they just see the same with Villar that they have been seeing.  His 2011 and 2012 splits at CC are in almost identical AB and he improved across the board.  Granted, outside of SB and BA (from .231 to a modest .261), there wasn't a huge jump in any stat.  But, he's still a guy you dream on and he's showing some improvement.  Unlike some things, you can at least say that his career hasn't hit a wall.

I see what you did there.

[roadrunner]

Fangraphs top 15: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/houston-astros-top-15-prospects-2012-13/

[moriartp]

From Jim Callis' Ask BA this morning: "Based on our BA Grades, the AL's three best Top 10s belong to (in order) the Mariners, Rangers and Astros."

Neato.

[Jacksonian]

Fangraphs top 15: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/houston-astros-top-15-prospects-2012-13/

I disagree with his 10-15 but whatever.

[astrosfan76]

Kind of in the "I'd hope so" category, but encouraging, nonetheless:

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal

Hearing good things about two SSs playing winter ball in Puerto Rico: #Astros No. 1 pick Carlos Correa & John Valentin's son Jesmuel (LAD).

[Reuben]

Kind of in the "I'd hope so" category, but encouraging, nonetheless:

I bet he means Jose Valentin's son...

[astrosfan76]

I bet he means Jose Valentin's son...

Ha, you apparently weren't the only one to pick up on that...

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal

Correction: Jesmuel Valentin is the son of Jose Valentin, not John. 51st overall pick by #Dodgers in last year's draft.

Tweeted shortly after the original.

[Duman]

I disagree with his 10-15 but whatever.

I think we will see a great deal of variation on the 10-20 round of most folks. This is a sign of the improved depth in the system. 

[Reuben]

I disagree with his 10-15 but whatever.

I think we will see a great deal of variation on the 10-20 round of most folks. This is a sign of the improved depth in the system. 

Might we see a return of the SnS Top 20??

[moriartp]

BA's top 10 is up.

[Jacksonian]

BA's top 10 is up.

Fontana in a top 10 amazes me.

[Jacksonian]

Might we see a return of the SnS Top 20??

Not official SNS, but my meaningless one:
CORREA
SINGLETON
DESHIELDS
SPRINGER
COSART
SANTANA
TROPEANO
MCCULLERS
FOLTYNEWICZ
RUIZ

[roadrunner]

Fontana in a top 10 amazes me.

The projected 2016 lineup is always interesting (DDS in CF, Cosart as closer).  I think they know it is just spitballing, but I wonder what happens as Altuve and DDS continue to develop.

[jbm]

Not official SNS, but my meaningless one:
CORREA
SINGLETON
DESHIELDS
SPRINGER
COSART
SANTANA
TROPEANO
MCCULLERS
FOLTYNEWICZ
RUIZ

I have no sense on Tropeano, and am not down on Villar as he finally showed me some progress before his stupidity, but I like the ranking of DeShields above everyone but Singleton and Correa.  I was very surprised to see him at 6 on BA, as I always appreciate players who have recently shown themselves to be on the upswing.   

[juliogotay]

BA's top 10 is up.

Thanks.

[astrosfan76]

I was surprised to see Correa over Singleton in the "Best Power Hitter" category.  I know that power will be a good part of Correa's game, but I haven't seen him with a higher present/future power rating than Singleton.  Better power relative to position, yes.  I wonder if this is raw power or what shows up in games, current power, future power, etc.  Considering Singleton hit 21 homeruns as a 20-year old in AA and is still learning to tap into his power, I see that as a pretty big compliment to Correa.

[astrosfan76]

The projected 2016 lineup is always interesting (DDS in CF, Cosart as closer).  I think they know it is just spitballing, but I wonder what happens as Altuve and DDS continue to develop.

They do know it's a crap shoot and don't make any attempt at guessing what will happen with free agency/trades.  My guess of the future is that one of them is traded, but the club doesn't need to make a decision any time soon.  Unless Altuve regresses, he's a solid second baseman.  DDS could move to CF, but he has more value at 2B with his skill set.  They could give him some reps at CF next fall; since he played there as an amateur, he shouldn't need as much time to transition.  But, Springer is a better defender, so he may have the upper-hand there.

The problem with trading Altuve or DDS, though, is that they don't have tools that get big returns in a swap, esp. Altuve.  I think by the point when a trade could become looming, the club will be ready to make splashier deals, so they could be packaged with other players.  But, they probably wouldn't be a headliner (maybe a 1A). 

[Reuben]

Fontana in a top 10 amazes me.

They talk about how he's a grinder, etc., less range than you like at SS but otherwise very steady, would profile well at 2B. They summarize thus: "While Fontana may not be a star, scouts are certain he'll be a big leaguer, likely in the mold of another former Gator, David Eckstein. Fontana will push toolsier shortstops Jonathan Villar and Jio Mier in 2013 and could start his first full pro season in Double-A."

So, I guess it's the ol' high floor vs. high ceiling debate. They seem to have really liked him going back to the draft.

I'm surprised to see Folty ahead of DDS and Cosart, also surprised that they say of Folty "He now relies more on a four-seamer that ranges from 93-99 mph", thought he was more a low-90's guy. They also say his curve shows plus potential, change ahead of curve now, average to plus, "He has the upside of a No. 2 starter."

[OregonStrosFan]

BA's top 10 is up.

I liked this quote:

After finishing the worst cumulative minor league record in 2008, 2009 and 2011 (and 29th in 2010), Houston affiliates had the best winning percentage (.546) in the game in 2012.

[OregonStrosFan]

Fontana in a top 10 amazes me.

Me as well.  Certainly would've thought Santana would have been ahead of him.

Not official SNS, but my meaningless one:
CORREA
SINGLETON
DESHIELDS
SPRINGER
COSART
SANTANA
TROPEANO
MCCULLERS
FOLTYNEWICZ
RUIZ

Good list.  Personally I'm still sticking with Singleton at #1 and Correa at #2 FOR NOW, but imagine that will flip-flop by this time in 2013 (in other words, I think you're 'ultimately' correct, I'm just not quite ready to go there...).  As for you're putting DeShields at #3, I agree completely (which amazes me considering how down I was on the kid this time last year).  FWIW, my 'off-the-cuff' Top 10 pretty closely resembles the FanGraphs Top 10:

1. SINGLETON
2. CORREA
3. DESHIELDS
4. SPRINGER
5. MCCULLERS
6. COSART
7. FOLTYNEWICZ
8. RUIZ
9. TROPEANO
10. SANTANA

To add:

*I really like Ruiz and think he will be a tremendous asset for the club for a lot of years. 
*I fully expect Vincent Velasquez to knock someone off this list by the end of 2013. 
*Adrian Houser is another that I'm thinking (hoping) will make great strides this year. 
*And though he was not in my top 10, I'm also higher on Villar than I have been previously (temper tantrum notwithstanding... hopefully that whole ordeal helped him decide to grow up...).

[OregonStrosFan]

DDS could move to CF, but he has more value at 2B with his skill set.

I'm a bit out of my depth on the subject...but...I'd have thought DDS' value (given his skill set) would be greater at CF than at 2B.  Care to enlighten me (serious request, not being my usual smart-assed self...)?

[astrosfan76]

I'm a bit out of my depth on the subject...but...I'd have thought DDS' value (given his skill set) would be greater at CF than at 2B.  Care to enlighten me (serious request, not being my usual smart-assed self...)?

I'm sure he could play a capable CF, so I don't see it as a question of defensive value as much as offensive value at the position.  He's not going to have a strong arm, but seems to be coming around as a pretty decent 2B defensively.  His hands are getting better and he has the quickness to have good range there.  Here's a snippet from MLB.com's draft report on him:

He does have the potential to be a very good hitter and puts his speed to use on the basepaths. He's got more than enough range to handle center field and the hands to play second if a team wanted to give that a look.

And, this is just my opinion, so it doesn't mean much, but I think it's harder to find a 2B who's a plus offensively and defensively than it is to find a CF.  On his club alone, he wouldn't be the best CF at either.  If you can get his kind of production out of 2B, though, it solidifies a spot in the lineup and field that can be difficult to fill well. 

[jbm]

I don't think that BA description should be read as predicting he might be a plus defender at second.  It screams servicable instead. 

[astrosfan76]

I don't think that BA description should be read as predicting he might be a plus defender at second.  It screams servicable instead. 

I haven't read BA's description, I'm just going by what I've read about his defense improving this season.  I did come across this doing a quick Google search, though:

Explosively quick on the infield. Dramatically improved range in 2012 with better instincts. Has plus-plus range to both sides. Hands are rapidly improving and he makes most plays cleanly, particularly to glove side. Has raw tools to be a plus glove at second base. Backup of CF because of running ability. Grade – 40/60

http://baseballprospectnation.com/2012/09/25/scouting-report-delino-deshields-2b/

[geezerdonk]

Really surprised to see Santana not on the list.

[astrosfan76]

Really surprised to see Santana not on the list.

I am, also.  He was #6 on last year's list and Villar was #4; both of whom put up their best season to date.  But, I take that as a compliment to the influx of high-end prospects that has been added to the system.  Granted, Santana played at Lancaster, but I don't think anyone doubts his power.  To put up most of those numbers at 19 at High-A, that's pretty good. 

[Jacksonian]

They talk about how he's a grinder, etc., less range than you like at SS but otherwise very steady, would profile well at 2B. They summarize thus: "While Fontana may not be a star, scouts are certain he'll be a big leaguer, likely in the mold of another former Gator, David Eckstein. Fontana will push toolsier shortstops Jonathan Villar and Jio Mier in 2013 and could start his first full pro season in Double-A."

That's laughable.  Eckstein is a vastly superior hitter compared to Fontana.  Eckstein hit below .300 only once (AAA) between college and the minors.  Fontana has yet to break .290.  A fairer batting comp at comparable ages might be Adam Everett.

[VirtualBob]

That's laughable.  Eckstein is a vastly superior hitter compared to Fontana.  Eckstein hit below .300 only once (AAA) between college and the minors.  Fontana has yet to break .290.  A fairer batting comp at comparable ages might be Adam Everett.

A better comparison is probably Eddie Yost.

Edited to add stats below

Lifetime MLB BA .254 OBP .394

[Reuben]

A better comparison is probably Eddie Yost.

Edited to add stats below

Lifetime MLB BA .254 OBP .394

Or Eddie Stanky. Lifetime .268 BA, .410 OBP.
Or Max Bishop, career .271 BA, .423 OBP. Led the league with 128 walks in a year where he hit .232 with a .316 SLG%.

Of course, if Fontana's career ends up being remotely similar to those guys', the Astros will probably be pretty happy.

[jaklewein]

I was surprised to see Correa over Singleton in the "Best Power Hitter" category.  I know that power will be a good part of Correa's game, but I haven't seen him with a higher present/future power rating than Singleton.  Better power relative to position, yes.  I wonder if this is raw power or what shows up in games, current power, future power, etc.  Considering Singleton hit 21 homeruns as a 20-year old in AA and is still learning to tap into his power, I see that as a pretty big compliment to Correa.

Take this for what it's worth...but was talking to a high school kid that plays travel ball.  Last summer he went to Florida to play in some tournaments and got to play over at Osceola Stadium.  He said he got to meet Correa.  He said he got to see him taking batting practice one day.  He was hitting line drives, etc.  Apparently the coaches where working with him, made a few adjustments, next thing you know he said Correa was hitting moon shots one after another.  He said he was amazed with the power as many of the homers were way, way gone.  I know...story from a kid I barely know...batting practice... but when I saw your post I figured it couldn't hurt to throw it out there.  

[astrosfan76]

Take this for what it's worth...but was talking to a high school kid that plays travel ball.  Last summer he went to Florida to play in some tournaments and got to play over at Osceola Stadium.  He said he got to meet Correa.  He said he got to see him taking batting practice one day.  He was hitting line drives, etc.  Apparently the coaches where working with him, made a few adjustments, next thing you know he said Correa was hitting moon shots one after another.  He said he was amazed with the power as many of the homer were way, way gone.  I know...story from a kid I barely know...batting practice... but wen I saw your post I figured it couldn't hurt to throw it out there. 

Thanks for the report.  From what I remember reading from Perfect Game about him, it sounds very likely.  The power is definitely there, I just hadn't heard anyone say it was greater than Singleton's.  Great if it is, though.

[toddthebod]

The problem with trading Altuve or DDS, though, is that they don't have tools that get big returns in a swap, esp. Altuve.  I think by the point when a trade could become looming, the club will be ready to make splashier deals, so they could be packaged with other players.  But, they probably wouldn't be a headliner (maybe a 1A). 

It's not just Jose Altuve.  It's "all-star Jose Altuve."  (And by that time it will probably be several time all star.)   If we are ultimately going to trade him, the time to start bumping up his trade value is now!

[astrosfan76]

It's not just Jose Altuve.  It's "obligatoryall-star Jose Altuve."  (And by that time it will probably be several time all star.)   If we are ultimately going to trade him, the time to start bumping up his trade value is now!

FIFY.  Just hope that the other teams don't notice!

[Duman]

Cumulative top prospect list

[juliogotay]

27 of the 32 on the list were added to the organzation in the last two years.

[astrosfan76]

And another list, courtesy of John Sickels:

1) Carlos Correa
2) Jonathan Singleton
3) George Springer
4) Jarred Cosart
5) Lance McCullers
6) DDS
7) Folty
Tropeano
9) Rio Ruiz
10) Domingo Santana
11) Jonathan Villar
12) Nolan Fontana
13) Asher W.
14) Robbie Grossman
15) Marc Krauss
16) Vincent Velasquez
17) Adrian Houser
18) Ariel Ovando
19) Aaron West
20) Brady Rodgers

Sickels uses letter grades for prospects instead of a numeric score of some sort.  On last year's list, only 14 of the 20 prospects received a grade of C+ or higher.  #14 on this year's list received a B-, with all of the remaining players, plus an additional 8, receiving a C+.  He sees players who receive a B as having a good chance at being a MLB regular.  Much improved.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/12/11/3755850/houston-astros-top-20-prospects-for-2013

[pots]

Some odd stuff.  I've read the exact opposite on Singleton's defense. And not sure how can you rate Krauss 15 if you assume he's a role-playing platoon guy with power and a age closing window of oppurtunity here.  Astros must have agreed as they chose not to protect him and the rest of the league agreed by not drafting him.  Krauss is more in the 25-30 range.

Also if you are going to list 43 guys.  You have to include Devenski.  Who through the single best game by anybody in the entire organization last year. 

[jbm]

Sadly, I had to click on the link to see the context for your remark.  Since Singleton is one player I have seen a decent amount, I also wonder what the hell he is talking about, both on his defense and offense.  

I have no respect for Sickels' opinions.  He seems like a decent guy, but his level of insight is almost non-existent.  

[Jacksonian]

Sadly, I had to click on the link to see the context for your remark.  Since Singleton is one player I have seen a decent amount, I also wonder what the hell he is talking about, both on his defense and offense.  

I have no respect for Sickels' opinions.  He seems like a decent guy, but his level of insight is almost non-existent.  

My view of Sickels has been that with the top known prospects, his rankings generally go with the flow.  When it comes to the questionable prospects he plays it differently than most in order to be viewed as an independent thinker.

[VirtualBob]

My view of Sickels has been that with the top known prospects, his rankings generally go with the flow.  When it comes to the questionable prospects he plays it differently than most in order to be viewed as an independent thinker.

... or at least independent.  Not sure about the "thinker" part.

[Reuben]

Sadly, I had to click on the link to see the context for your remark.  Since Singleton is one player I have seen a decent amount, I also wonder what the hell he is talking about, both on his defense and offense.  

I have no respect for Sickels' opinions.  He seems like a decent guy, but his level of insight is almost non-existent.  

So I'm guessing Singleton impressed you with his defense and his hitting ability? I have seen varying reports on his defense. I've also seen where some scouts think he's too passive, or lacks intensity or something like that.

[jbm]

Definitely with his hitting ability. He looks like a professional hitter to me. 

Regarding defense, I didn't think he could adequately play left, but he seemed fine at first.  My main point regarding defense was the characterization "deteriorating."  I always read that he was suspect in left, so I find it hard to believe he is deteriorating.  I also find it hard to believe his skills at first are declining. 

Also, his play was hardly passive, based on what I saw.

[Reuben]

Yeah, I thought "deteriorating" was a weird word to use to describe a 20-year-old (21?) athlete's defensive skill.

[astrosfan76]

I have no respect for Sickels' opinions.  He seems like a decent guy, but his level of insight is almost non-existent.  

It's rare to find anything original from him. My beef with him has been that he has been too stat-oriented and that has played too heavily in his analysis/rankings. He seems to be going to a few more games, but still doesn't have enough first-hand information or enough contacts to really go in-depth. Maybe he has more information in his books, but I've never gotten the impression that there is more.

[pots]

Singleton has had 2 managers over the last year:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121016&content_id=39850736&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

"He's going to be an everyday first baseman in the big leagues, period," Linares said. "As I said, he can hit, and he's above average defensively."

Singleton is not completely opposed to trying the outfield again, but he feels much more comfortable at first.

"I have worked hard on my defense," he said.

Howard and Detroit's Prince Fielder are first basemen who Singleton has followed closely.

"I'd like to be like them and be as much of a complete player as I can," Singleton said.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121031&content_id=40136632&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

"Singleton's a physically talented first baseman that can move, really good defensively, growing into his power, and he's a pretty good hitter," Linares said.

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=20120729&content_id=35765078&vkey=news_hou&c_id=hou

Bodie raves just as much about Singleton's defense. He came up as a first baseman, but the Phillies moved him to the outfield because they had Ryan Howard at first base and tied up in a long contract.

"He could be a Gold Glove first baseman," said Bodie, a former manager in the Giants organization. "I haven't seen a first baseman like him since J.T. Snow."

[VirtualBob]

Singleton has had 2 managers over the last year:

[Bodie]  In July:  "He could be a Gold Glove first baseman," said Bodie, a former manager in the Giants organization. "I haven't seen a first baseman like him since J.T. Snow." [/Bodie]

[Linares]  In October:  "He's going to be an everyday first baseman in the big leagues, period," Linares said. "As I said, he can hit, and he's above average defensively." [/Linares]

So I guess going from "... could be Gold Glove" to "above average defensively" might be considered "deterioration", but I will still stick with "author cluelessness".

[Duman]

I will stick with not improving as he moves up levels.  What is good in A ball isn't good in AA.  I think he made a poor word choice.  BTW - Sickles was one of the few who had Altuve on a list a few years ago.

I don't have the stats to back up any of the list track records for accuracy.  Each list has it's bias, as it should.  If all the list are going to be the same, why have a bunch of list.  The variety allows for me to form a consensus.

[Duman]

My cumulative list now has 13 different list contributing.  Some plum goofy but the build a consensus.

[Jose Cruz III]

Thanks, Appy and everyone that contributed to this thread. A great read for someone that, admittedly, don't know a lot about the farm.

[astrosfan76]

MLB has their Top 100 up.  Singleton comes in at #27, Correa at #30, Springer at #57, and Cosart at #89.  I thought DDS might have a shot, but there were only two 2B on the Top 100; DDS was 7th among 2B.  For comparison, Springer was 13th or 14th out of OF.  But, top prospects generally don't play 2B, anyway.  Singleton was 1st and Correa was 5th among their respective positions.  RHP is so deep, Cosart was 34th, but still made the cut (with another 3 after him). 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/

[pots]

MLB has their Top 100 up.  Singleton comes in at #27, Correa at #30, Springer at #57, and Cosart at #89.  I thought DDS might have a shot, but there were only two 2B on the Top 100; DDS was 7th among 2B.  For comparison, Springer was 13th or 14th out of OF.  But, top prospects generally don't play 2B, anyway.  Singleton was 1st and Correa was 5th among their respective positions.  RHP is so deep, Cosart was 34th, but still made the cut (with another 3 after him).  

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/

What the heck is up with that.  He was the 2nd best second base prospect at the end of last year.  And #77 on the overall list.  What happpened between the end of last year and now that has caused him to fall so far???  It's not like there are new guys.  The sae guys he was ahead of last year he is behind this year with a glowing report of what happened last year.  Mayo is an idiot.  4 of the guys on the second base list that moved in front of him are all projected to be a 5 versus Delino who is projected as a 6.  

[Reuben]

What the heck is up with that.  He was the 2nd best second base prospect at the end of last year.  And #77 on the overall list.  What happpened between the end of last year and now that has caused him to fall so far???  It's not like there are new guys.  The sae guys he was ahead of last year he is behind this year with a glowing report of what happened last year.  Mayo is an idiot.  4 of the guys on the second base list that moved in front of him are all projected to be a 5 versus Delino who is projected as a 6.  

Dude, I think you're getting way too angry about this. It's just one source's rankings. Though I have to say, my opinion of Mayo has slipped. Even the writing seems to be recycling old info way too much. He ranked Singleton as the #1 1B prospect. What did his write-up say? Well, half of it talked about how the Phillies tried him in the OF for a while. Why the fuck that is still relevant I don't know. Then the 2nd half talked about his weed suspension. More relevant, but still - if I'm reading this I know basically nothing about the skills of the supposed top 1B prospect in the game, except "He has the ability to hit for average and get on-base, and the power has started to come." Wow. That's some great analysis there, Jon.

Geez. Now I guess I'm getting all angry.

[OregonStrosFan]

Dude, I think you're getting way too angry about this.  *** Geez. Now I guess I'm getting all angry.

Perhaps JP Schwartz top 150 will make y'all a tad less 'angry'...  LINK (FWIW and IIRC, Schwartz was among the earliest of the prospect folks to recognize Mr. The Altuve as a legit prospect and future MLBer).

#8 Carlos Correa – SS
#23 Jonathan Singleton – 1B
#40 George Springer – OF
#67 Lance McCullers – RHP
#85 Delino DeShields – 2B
#101 Mike Foltynewicz – RHP

Honorable Mentions:

Rio Ruiz – 3B
Jarred Cosart – RHP

[roadrunner]

Perhaps JP Schwartz top 150 will make y'all a tad less 'angry'...  LINK (FWIW and IIRC, Schwartz was among the earliest of the prospect folks to recognize Mr. The Altuve as a legit prospect and future MLBer).

#8 Carlos Correa – SS
#23 Jonathan Singleton – 1B
#40 George Springer – OF
#67 Lance McCullers – RHP
#85 Delino DeShields – 2B
#101 Mike Foltynewicz – RHP

Honorable Mentions:

Rio Ruiz – 3B
Jarred Cosart – RHP

I want to like this list more, but this disclaimer makes me think twice:

Every year at this time I like to rank my overall top prospects on one list. My two criteria are both past performance and future potential to a prospect’s parent team. I did not attend any minor league games this past year, nor do I claim to have any professional scouting experience. This list is the culmination of my own research of statistics and online scouting reports.

Crazy that Cosart isn't even in his top 150.

[BudGirl]

I want to like this list more, but this disclaimer makes me think twice:

Every year at this time I like to rank my overall top prospects on one list. My two criteria are both past performance and future potential to a prospect’s parent team. I did not attend any minor league games this past year, nor do I claim to have any professional scouting experience. This list is the culmination of my own research of statistics and online scouting reports.

Crazy that Cosart isn't even in his top 150.

Crazy that anyone cares about his opinion if he hasn't seen any games.

[roadrunner]

I assume there's so much negative press on Cosart recently that is mainly explaining how he is falling on lists, and this guy is probably overreacting to it.

[Reuben]

Crazy that anyone cares about his opinion if he hasn't seen any games.

Well, his opinion could be useful if it's formed based on the opinions of people who do see a lot of games, and know a lot about this stuff. That is, essentially, what Baseball America's rankings are- they get opinions from a bunch of scouts, and farm directors and so on, and they tabulate the consensus opinion on players.

But any "Top 100" type list is just going to be extremely subjective. How do you compare a great AAA 2B to a great rookie-ball SP and a great High-A LF? You can't with any pretense of certainty.

[astrosfan76]

To update, Mayo had DDS at 102.  I'm okay with that, he proves himself at higher levels this year and he's gonna shoot up.

http://minors.mlblogs.com/2013/01/31/beyond-the-top-100/

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

But any "Top 100" type list is just going to be extremely subjective. How do you compare a great AAA 2B to a great rookie-ball SP and a great High-A LF? You can't with any pretense of certainty.

Ding, ding, ding.

[pots]

To update, Mayo had DDS at 102.  I'm okay with that, he proves himself at higher levels this year and he's gonna shoot up.

http://minors.mlblogs.com/2013/01/31/beyond-the-top-100/

more stupidity.  Where are the 4 second baseman infront of DDS on the second base list that aren't in the top 100?

ETA.

Saw this in the comments section:

Ryan — I believe the official explanation is “oops!” Not making excuses, but I think I might have too many lists in my head as I’m writing up 30 team 20s as we speak. I just didn’t cross-check. Fact of the matter is that there is a large group in that 101-125 range that I consider kind of muddled together. Schoop is right there (say 111 for the sake of this discussion). What I will need to do is adjust the 2B list accordingly. Thanks for the catch.

[astrosfan76]

Updated MLB.com list has Peacock at #10 and Stassi at #16.  Even a year ago, it would be safe to pin them both as top 10. 

[moriartp]

Law's top 100 is up. Correa 24, Singleton 32, Springer 43, DeShields 83, Cosart 86, and Grossman on the "just missed" list. He's certainly the high man on Grossman among the national writers.

Links: top 100, just missed

[Duman]

Updated cumulative prospect list for the 14 list I have been able to find. 

[moriartp]

And the BA Top 100 is out.

Correa 13
Singleton 27
Springer 37
McCullers 50
DeShields 99

Foltynewicz ranked higher than DeShields on John Manuel's Astros top 10, but the top 100 is more of a pure staff consensus list. And boy, they really like McCullers.

[astrosfan76]

And the BA Top 100 is out.

Correa 13
Singleton 27
Springer 37
McCullers 50
DeShields 99

Foltynewicz ranked higher than DeShields on John Manuel's Astros top 10, but the top 100 is more of a pure staff consensus list. And boy, they really like McCullers.

Unless I'm missing someone, that puts LMC as #7 from this year's draft class.  That's pretty darn good and, while this is just an arbitrary list, would justify his price tag.  He must have really proven himself to them as a future starter.  Pretty happy about this list.

[moriartp]

Unless I'm missing someone, that puts LMC as #7 from this year's draft class.  That's pretty darn good and, while this is just an arbitrary list, would justify his price tag.  He must have really proven himself to them as a future starter.  Pretty happy about this list.

My count has him at 10 (behind Buxton, Correa, Zunino, Zimmer, Gausman, Almora, Heaney, Fried, and Russell), which is pretty close to where they had him before the draft (13), and even closer considering Appel would've been somewhere ahead of him on the list if he'd signed. It seems like they've stuck to their predraft rankings pretty closely in making the list and haven't let draft position influence them.

[roadrunner]

Farmstros.blogspot.com has a good interview up with Manuel, especially concerning Villar.  It seems the Astros are still really high on him.  Since Lowrie is gone I wouldn't be surprised to see Villar by the end of the year as the starting SS.

[jbm]

I couldn't find that interview, but given who remains at short, it wouldn't surprise me if Villar made an appearance at some point. 

[astrosfan76]

My count has him at 10 (behind Buxton, Correa, Zunino, Zimmer, Gausman, Almora, Heaney, Fried, and Russell), which is pretty close to where they had him before the draft (13), and even closer considering Appel would've been somewhere ahead of him on the list if he'd signed. It seems like they've stuck to their predraft rankings pretty closely in making the list and haven't let draft position influence them.

Yeah, I should have looked at a list again, I missed all of them after Almora.  Can't really blame them for staying close to their predraft list.  Even with the players getting in 1 1/2-2 months during the summer, it's not enough of a sample to change who they like based on performance or where they went in the draft. 

[roadrunner]

I couldn't find that interview, but given who remains at short, it wouldn't surprise me if Villar made an appearance at some point. 

I butchered the link: http://whattheheckbobby.blogspot.com/

[jbm]

Thanks for the link.  Nice to hear the organization still views him positively. 

[astrosfan76]

BA also has tool gradings up to go along with the Top 100, for those who want to look/compare/critique.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2013/2614739.html

[moriartp]

Astros on BP's overall list:

Singleton 25
Correa 26
Springer 55
DeShields 101

[roadrunner]

Astros on BP's overall list:

Singleton 25
Correa 26
Springer 55
DeShields 101

Interesting list compared to the others.  This one has Cole in the top 4 and Myers all the way down at 7.  Buxton is at 8.

[MusicMan]

FanGraphs 100:

29. Singleton
34. Correa
52. DDJ
53. Springer

52. Delino DeShields Jr, 2B, Houston: I get why DeShields is not found higher on a lot of Top 100 lists (including defensive questions), but he’s got pedigree, an undervalued plus tool and made significant strides in his development in 2012. If he can improve his defense, he could be an impact player; it’s not often that you find a player with legit 60+ steal capabilities. I personally think DeShields has a better chance to hit big league pitching than Reds speedster Billy Hamilton, who is much more hyped as a prospect.

[mrpink]

It's going to be very interesting to me whether DeShields can challenge Altuve in the next couple of years.  Assuming neither guy takes a step back developmentally, I wonder if one gets traded or maybe they attempt to transition DDS back to the outfield.

[Reuben]

It's going to be very interesting to me whether DeShields can challenge Altuve in the next couple of years.  Assuming neither guy takes a step back developmentally, I wonder if one gets traded or maybe they attempt to transition DDS back to the outfield.

Altuve played some 3B in the minors... Doubt they see that as an option, but you never know.

[VirtualBob]

Altuve played some 3B in the minors... Doubt they see that as an option, but you never know.

IIRC, he only played 3B for a short period while they gave preference to Paredes at 2B.  And it did not work out terribly well for any concerned.

[Navin R Johnson]

I would think it more likely that DDJr moves to the outfield if needed.

[Reuben]

I would think it more likely that DDJr moves to the outfield if needed.

That's what BA seems to think. They have him in CF, (Springer in RF), Altuve at 2B in their projected 2016 lineup. But obviously we can't overlook the possibility that Altuve will be traded in the next year or two, although personally I hope not- I think it would behoove them to start showing the fans some player continuity, and Altuve is about as fan-friendly as you can get.

[juliogotay]

That's what BA seems to think. They have him in CF, (Springer in RF), Altuve at 2B in their projected 2016 lineup. But obviously we can't overlook the possibility that Altuve will be traded in the next year or two, although personally I hope not- I think it would behoove them to start showing the fans some player continuity, and Altuve is about as fan-friendly as you can get.

Agreed on Altuve. And there lies the rub. I really like Springer in CF. That opens RF for another power-type in RF. If Santana continues to develop it may come down to which of Santana, Altuve or DDS do you not want to keep. I suspect time will make things more clear.

[Navin R Johnson]

Well thanks to the wonders of the AL and the DH, wee can keep all of them in the lineup!

[MusicMan]

BP scouting notes from Spring Training:

Carlos Correa, SS: Looks the part; good frame; athletic movements; advanced swing; power potential; crazy good makeup. 1st-overall pick in 2012, displays loud tools and an advanced polish that should allow him to start the season in Low-A Quad Cities.

Nolan Fontana, IF: Physically mature; grinder; gap power; profiles as a good utility man. The former Gator should start the season with Double-A Corpus Christi.

Kenny Long, LHP: LOOGY profile; low slot; all pitches have plus action; slider can be solid average with depth. The 22nd-round pick out of Illinois State may never be a prospect, but he could put up some crazy strikeout numbers if used in the correct situation.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Is it odd that they refer to Fontana as an IF, not SS?  Does he have multiple multiple positions?  Looks like he only played SS at Lex last year.

[VirtualBob]

Is it odd that they refer to Fontana as an IF, not SS?  Does he have multiple multiple positions?  Looks like he only played SS at Lex last year.

I expect him to be the regular SS at Corpus this season, though he may move around a bit and give Perdomo some starts there.  Longer term, I think they see Marwin, Villar, Mier & Correa and conclude that Fontana is the most likely utility guy from that set.  Too many prospects at SS is an excellent problem to have.

[Jacksonian]

Is it odd that they refer to Fontana as an IF, not SS?  Does he have multiple multiple positions?  Looks like he only played SS at Lex last year.

I think the expectation is that he won't be able to hit enough to hold a regular position.  But he's a good enough defender and athlete that he can play all the infield positions.

[roadrunner]

BP scouting notes from Spring Training:

What is LOOGY?

[Ron Brand]

Left-handed One Out Guy.

[MusicMan]

Astros are up to #9 in BA's org rankings.

[MusicMan]

Also at #9 in BP rankings

[astrosfan76]

Also at #9 in BP rankings

Looks like a good time to be in Iowa.