Oh Das...

[Andyzipp]

What say ye about Isaac?

[Nate in IA]

I'm not even close to Das but I find this to be quite useful.

[Fredia]

one model brings it close to the la tx border

[MusicMan]

What say ye about Isaac?

Rush says Obama's controlling the weather.

[NeilT]

Rush says Obama's controlling the weather.

And invading Lubbock. 

[MusicMan]

And invading Lubbock. 

Why the hell would we defend Lubbock?

[Lefty]

Why the hell would we defend Lubbock?

Why the hell would they want it?

[ybbodeus]

Rush says Obama's controlling the weather.

Did Dick Cheney retire or something?

[HudsonHawk]

And invading Lubbock. 

I saw that.  How the hell do idiots like that get elected anything, let alone judge?

[NeilT]

I saw that.  How the hell do idiots like that get elected anything, let alone judge?

Democracy in action.

[jbm]

A Republican wanting to raise taxes and needs justification that will sit well with the crazies, so he finds a way to blame Obama and the impending Civil War his reelection will cause.  Awesome. 

[MusicMan]

I saw that.  How the hell do idiots like that get elected anything, let alone judge?

Keep in mind, county judge is not a judiciary, but rather a combination of legislative and executive.  Essentially, this guy controls the entire budget for a not-small Texas county.  Unreal.

[sporadic]

Rush says Obama's controlling the weather.

and the remark was followed by "the same way Bush controlled Katrina" and a reference to the nuts that actually think that sort of thing...

[NeilT]

Keep in mind, county judge is not a judiciary, but rather a combination of legislative and executive.  Essentially, this guy controls the entire budget for a not-small Texas county.  Unreal.

He's actually just one vote out of 5 on a commissioners court, though in smaller counties he also acts a bit like a justice of the peace.  He has the soapbox though.

I'm proud of him.  He had the guts to stand up and say that the UN will invade Lubbock if Obama is reelected.  That takes a special kind of something.

[Ron Brand]

I'm proud of him.  He had the guts to stand up and say that the UN will invade Lubbock if Obama is reelected.  That takes a special kind of something.

And if we can find out what it is, maybe we can develop a vaccine.

[Guinness]

and the remark was followed by "the same way Bush controlled Katrina" and a reference to the nuts that actually think that sort of thing...

I don't think anyone thought that.

[Andyzipp]

I don't think anyone thought that.

You've never met Jessie Ventura then.

[HudsonHawk]

You've never met Jessie Ventura then.

Or Fidel Castro.

[Bench]

Or Fidel Castro.

Or Pat Buchanan.

[Guinness]

Or Pat Buchanan.

OK, how about "I don't think anyone who is normal thought that" ?

[sporadic]

OK, how about "I don't think anyone who is normal thought that" ?

which brings us back to Limbaughs reference to the nuts who believed such things...

[Bench]

OK, how about "I don't think anyone who is normal thought that" ?

Well, obviously.

[MusicMan]

Or Pat Buchanan.

Just seeing that name causes me a blind raeg.

[subnuclear]

Just seeing that name causes me a blind raeg.

Though I don't remember him expressing that opinion ever.

[MusicMan]

Though I don't remember him expressing that opinion ever.

His opinions on adoption alone are enough for him to burn in hell.

[subnuclear]

His opinions on adoption alone are enough for him to burn in hell.

Yes, but you can't just stick words in the mouth of people just because you don't like them.

[das]

What say ye about Isaac?

Argh.  I had a decent post put together and my browser bombed.  I don't mind work but I HATE rework...

When a storm is this far out, it’s not particularly useful to predict exact tracks so I usually take a look at some macro-analysis tools.  Here’s a good one that plots most of the trust-worthy computer models.  It gives you an idea of the bounding parameters of potential centered on the mean.
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2012/al092012/track_early/aal09_2012082412_track_early.png
I like this tool, maybe a little better.  It’s a combo plot from the NOA Earth System Research Lab that plots the two most trusted models (GFS and Euro) and their ensemble members along with the potential error ellipse:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/gfsenkf/ens/2012082400/ellipses_2012082400_09L.gif

In addition to the track guidance, this far out, I do the same macro-analysis for intensity.  Here’s a good tool:
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2012/al092012/intensity_early/aal09_2012082412_intensity_early.png
As you can see, none of the models bring the thing to a major hurricane and almost half do not even attain hurricane status.

I have nothing but respect for the NHC guys but they are quite bullish on the storm.  They bring the thing up to 80mph as it comes ashore near Pensacola.  
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/150135.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
I have a hard time believing this.  Even though the storm is initializing well (it’s up to 60mph now), it has some difficult terrain ahead of it.  The land interaction is disrupting the convergent moisture feed in the boundary layer and is disrupting the vorticity structure lee of the topography.   The storm has a challenge with vertical stretching of the vortex column lee of the topography and deflected to the right due to the coriolis affect.  You can see this well in this vorticity plot:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor.GIF
It's that small area of green (low vorticity) just ahead of the storm.

Just because it’s pretty, here’s a good pic of Isaac from today.  Very nice outflow at the upper levels but the lower and mid levels are still very disorganized:
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/images/high_resolution/1157v1_20120824-IssacA.png

Here’s a pic from the NOAA hurricane hunter research mission from yesterday evening.  Nice day for a flight:
https://p.twimg.com/A1B9akDCMAA5seJ.jpg

Even though the storm is still in its formative stages, there is still some research value in analyzing the storm for cyclogenesis studies.  GOES-14, the latest geostationary weather satellite that is in orbital storage until ops begin next year was placed into super rapid scan operations this morning to take a peek at Isaac.  The images in this loop were taken every 1 minute for a two hour period.  You get a real sense of a storm as a living, breathing thing when viewed like this.  Take care clicking the link, it’s 45mb.  It’s worth taking a look if you can:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Isaac_GOES14_SRSO_24Aug2012_1145_1340.gif

And, completely unrelated, here’s a link to a radar image of Typhoon Tembin as it came ashore in Taiwan, raw data compliments of their Central Weather Bureau:
https://yvu0og.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pIYluYeQGgdKQbUw79kNkMO-YvMcJR_zY3-__E1bL7TQpWSOucKlVUHlmVdmf9QL1w1LsZPwEaVgZbl_8W7PdNChJQgAlVFzI/Tembin%20Full.gif
Careful, it’s 31mb.  I don’t expect Isaac to be anything like this…

[Mr. Happy]

DAS, thanks for that very informative post chock full of analysis. You rock, dude.

[Bench]

Though I don't remember him expressing that opinion ever.

Didn't he say Katrina was god's vengeance for the gays?

[Bench]

Thanks DAS.  I always appreciate the weather download. 

So how bad did Taiwan get rocked by Tembin?  That radar image looked brutal.

[subnuclear]

Didn't he say Katrina was god's vengeance for the gays?

If you find it I will believe it, but googling produced no answers.

[sporadic]

DAS, thanks for that very informative post chock full of analysis. You rock, dude.

+1.  Too much cool shit in there to even quote.

[Bench]

If you find it I will believe it, but googling produced no answers.

I confused him with Pat Robertson.  Six to one, I guess.

Wasn't John Hagee in on that parade as well?

[das]

Thanks DAS.  I always appreciate the weather download.  

So how bad did Taiwan get rocked by Tembin?  That radar image looked brutal.

It was a big rainer (25-30" of rain in 24 hours) and windy (100+mph winds) but hit the much lighter populated southern end of the island so the human impact was minimal.  The government there is very, very good at preparing their citizens for typhoons so that helps immeasurably.  

Super Typhoon Bolaven just behind it will be a much, much bigger threat to Okinawa.  Current forecast has the very large storm hitting the island square with 140mph winds.  Here's the communique from Gen. Molloy at Kadena AFB to the troops this morning:

Team Okinawa,

Take this message seriously; your life may depend on it! I can't stress enough how dangerous this typhoon may be when it hits Okinawa. This is the most powerful typhoon forecast to hit the island in 13 years; we expect damaging winds to arrive by early Sunday morning.

So be prepared! Take the time today and tomorrow to secure your outdoor items, and get the supplies you need t...
o whether this storm. Tie down your outdoor items and work with your neighbors to help them--especially those whose spouses are deployed/TDY/TAD.

During the typhoon, do not go outside. With expected sustained winds of 140 miles per hour and gusts up to 170 mph, anything not tied down, even smaller items, could become a deadly projectile.

This is not just another typhoon. If we all follow the typhoon procedures and take care of each other, we will all make it safe through this typhoon. God Bless and Stay safe!

Brig Gen Matt Molloy
18th Wing Commander

[MusicMan]

I confused him with Pat Robertson.  Six to one, I guess.

Come to think of it, so did I.

[Noe]

WOLVERINES!!!

[Andyzipp]

Thanks das!

[Mr. Happy]

I confused him with Pat Robertson.  Six to one, I guess.

Wasn't John Hagee in on that parade as well?

It's most definitely not six one way half-a-dozen the other. Pat Buchanan, like him or not, is a very serious guy. Pat Robertson, on the other hand, is a nut.

[Noe]

It's most definitely not six one way half-a-dozen the other. Pat Buchanan, like him or not, is a very serious guy. Pat Robertson, on the other hand, is a nut.

Devout Catholic... Extreme Evangelical... hey, they're all the same. *sigh*

[Guinness]

It's most definitely not six one way half-a-dozen the other. Pat Buchanan, like him or not, is a very serious guy. Pat Robertson, on the other hand, is a nut.

This isn't a matter of right or left wing.  Pat Buchanan is a fucking racist lunatic.

[Mr. Happy]

Devout Catholic... Extreme Evangelical... hey, they're all the same. *sigh*

Then I'm the same I guess, because I am a staunch, old-line (as in Tridentine Latin Mass) conservative Roman Catholic.

[Mr. Happy]

This isn't a matter of right or left wing.  Pat Buchanan is a fucking racist lunatic.

I'm no Pat Buchanan apologist, but methinks that you're showing your liberal streak by saying that.

[Bench]

Then I'm the same I guess, because I am a staunch, old-line (as in Tridentine Latin Mass) conservative Roman Catholic.

Is that the same manner of Catholic worship that Mel Gibson does?

[subnuclear]

Is that the same manner of Catholic worship that Mel Gibson does?

Its just the Latin Mass that every Catholic Church celebrated before the mass was allowed to said in the local language (in 1968 after Vatican II). There are churches around here that will have one mass a week in Latin for people like Mr. Happy.

[Bench]

Its just the Latin Mass that every Catholic Church celebrated before the mass was allowed to said in the local language (in 1968 after Vatican II). There are churches around here that will have one mass a week in Latin for people like Mr. Happy.

I'd like to see one some day.  All in Latin and lots more chanting and incense, right? 

[Mr. Happy]

I'd like to see one some day.  All in Latin and lots more chanting and incense, right? 

They're much more prayerful and reverent in my opinion. It is all in Latin, although most priests will reread the Epistle and Gospel in English, and do their homily in English. I got tired of the tilt toward liberalism that enveloped the Roman Catholic Church after Vatican II. 

[Noe]

Then I'm the same I guess, because I am a staunch, old-line (as in Tridentine Latin Mass) conservative Roman Catholic.

Okay... how's this... elfs... dwarfs... there all the same! *sigh*

[geezerdonk]

More solemn and structured. Lots of nostalgia for old people.

[MusicMan]

I got tired of the tilt toward liberalism that enveloped the Roman Catholic Church after Vatican II. 

Pretty much the only way you will ever hear the Church referred to as "liberal".

[Taras Bulba]

Pretty much the only way you will ever hear the Church referred to as "liberal".

Outside of their stand on abortion and gay marriage, I've always thought the church leaned pretty well left or hard left on everything else. 

[Mr. Happy]

Outside of their stand on abortion and gay marriage, I've always thought the church leaned pretty well left or hard left on everything else. 

Pope Benedict XVI has cut back significantly on that. Thank God.

[MusicMan]

Outside of their stand on abortion and gay marriage, I've always thought the church leaned pretty well left or hard left on everything else.  

(never mind, I completely misread this)

[Bench]

Outside of their stand on abortion and gay marriage, I've always thought the church leaned pretty well left or hard left on everything else.  

At the Red Mass a couple of years ago, Cardinal Dinardo gave a stirring speech about how if people consider themselves a true Catholic and "pro-life" then they need to be against the death penalty, and in favor of universal healthcare, expanded welfare, and amnesty for illegal immigrants.  There were some ruffled feathers.  

I assume Mr. Happy would prefer such a message to be delivered in Latin so nobody could really understand it.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

You can't fight in here!  This is the war room!

[EasTexAstro]

Winds in the east, mist coming in. Like somethin' is brewin' and bout to begin. Can't put me finger on what lies in store, But I fear what's to happen all happened before.

[strosrays]

Very cool, das, and very informative.  Thanks.

I'm going to drink beer and stare at that vorticity plot thing all night long.

[das]

Thanks das!

In my rewrite of the post, I forgot the most important statement:  People in the Gulf states should never take a westward moving tropical system in the central Caribbean in Aug/Sept lightly. Always keep a wary eye on it. There is such a huge reservoir of latent heat available and so many forecasting challenges with various land masses and the massive battle between continental dry air to the north and tropical warm/moist air to the south and east that it makes the basin the most difficult to forecast in the entire world.  Just a thought.

Looks like Isaac weathered Haiti very well and may only graze Cuba. The boys at NHC may be onto something.

[NeilT]

Okay... how's this... elfs... dwarfs... there all the same! *sigh*

Well, they kinda are.

[Noe]

Well, they kinda are.

Sell that to an Elf!

[Limey]

Outside of their stand on abortion and gay marriage, I've always thought the church leaned pretty well left or hard left on everything else. 

Jesus certainly did.

[das]

A small change in the synoptic setup could mean big differences in strength as Isaac approaches the N. Gulf coast. Please continue to monitor this storm if you are in the area. From NHC internal discussion this evening:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STARTING TO
FORECAST A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR.  SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

[remy]

Hope nobody here planned a late August trip to Destin.

[das]

If you have a fast computer, stout network connection and large, hi-rez monitor, click this link:
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20120825&endtime=2240&nframes=100&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=2400&aniheight=1372

It's the low-level center of Isaac emerging off the NE coast of Cuba this evening. Link should be valid for 24 hours or more.

Also, here's the ARSR-4 radar out of Guantanamo:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&product=N0R&loop=yes

The center will be in range for another 6 hours.

[ybbodeus]

Jesus isn't considered "left" any longer, Limey.  Shoot, democracy was once considered left. Edit: come to think of it, it still on the so-called Arab Street.

[Bench]

So.... New Orleans?

[strosrays]

So.... New Orleans?

If so, then the Mississippi & Alabama coasts are going to get some wind and (ocean) water.

[BudGirl]

I'd like to see one some day.  All in Latin and lots more chanting and incense, right?  

In Houston, you have at least two options:  Holy Rosary in Midtown and Annunciation across from MMP both do Latin Masses on Sundays.


Also, if you want chanting and incense, find a Byzantine mass.

[das]

So.... New Orleans?

They are on the far western edge of the model suite envelope and only one has that solution.  Unfortunately, it's a particularly good model.  The other good one still shows Pensacola.  Next 24 hours will reveal a lot as the core will move away from Cuban airspace and the system can be consistently probed for data.  Forecast starting tomorrow morning will be sharply refined.

[NeilT]

In Houston, you have at least two options:  Holy Rosary in Midtown and Annunciation across from MMP both do Latin Masses on Sundays.


Also, if you want chanting and incense, find a Byzantine mass.

you could also visit the Orthodox Cathedral.  Not Latin, but plenty of chanted Greek, and incense out the wazoo.

[chuck]

you could also visit the Orthodox Cathedral.  Not Latin, but plenty of chanted Greek, and incense out the wazoo.

Actually it's called a thurible.

[strosrays]

They are on the far western edge of the model suite envelope and only one has that solution.  Unfortunately, it's a particularly good model.  The other good one still shows Pensacola.  Next 24 hours will reveal a lot as the core will move away from Cuban airspace and the system can be consistently probed for data.  Forecast starting tomorrow morning will be sharply refined.

It never occurred to me before that you guys had to put the analysis of a potentially dangerous to everybody storm on hold while it is in Cuban air space; unless it is hovering over Gitmo I guess.

The world in one fucked up place.  This just in.

[austro]

It never occurred to me before that you guys had to put the analysis of a potentially dangerous to everybody storm on hold while it is in Cuban air space; unless it is hovering over Gitmo I guess.

Same here.

[das]

It never occurred to me before that you guys had to put the analysis of a potentially dangerous to everybody storm on hold while it is in Cuban air space; unless it is hovering over Gitmo I guess.

The world in one fucked up place.  This just in.

It's strange.  There is some collaboration with InsMet de la Rebublica de Cuba but they are all over the place with air space transits.  They will sometimes allow NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft to enter their airspace.  They will almost never allow USAF Met aircraft in but sometimes will.  It's all on the whim of the political stance of the regim at that moment as well as if Raul woke up on the wrong side of the bed or not.  If there is little threat to the island, they are typically closed (as with Isaac) but if they are about to take a direct hit, they are pretty wide open.

Here's one of their Russian-built radar sites.  It's up and open now.  No guarantees for tomorrow or any other day...
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/01Casablanca/csbMAXw01a.gif

[Mr. Happy]

At the Red Mass a couple of years ago, Cardinal Dinardo gave a stirring speech about how if people consider themselves a true Catholic and "pro-life" then they need to be against the death penalty, and in favor of universal healthcare, expanded welfare, and amnesty for illegal immigrants.  There were some ruffled feathers.  

I assume Mr. Happy would prefer such a message to be delivered in Latin so nobody could really understand it.

I'm against the death penalty. As far as universal health care, I favor some means-tested safety net system. In my opinion, if Cardinal Dinardo were truly Christian, he, of all people, would be against expanded welfare. The Bible is quite clear that sloth is not to be rewarded. I'm for a closed border and selective amnesty.

[NeilT]

I'm against the death penalty. As far as universal health care, I favor some means-tested safety net system. In my opinion, if Cardinal Dinardo were truly Christian, he, of all people, would be against expanded welfare. The Bible is quite clear that sloth is not to be rewarded. I'm for a closed border and selective amnesty.

I thought we killed the fatted calf for sloth?

[ybbodeus]

Cardinal Benedict and the Jets?

[austro]

Cardinal Benedict and the Jets?

The song the DJs made famous.

[chuck]

In my opinion, if Cardinal Dinardo were truly Christian, he, of all people, would be against expanded welfare. The Bible is quite clear that sloth is not to be rewarded.

Amen, brother. Ten percent of US Americans are out of work and each and every one of them is a lazy motherfucker.

[Bench]

Amen, brother. Ten percent of US Americans are out of work and each and every one of them is a lazy motherfucker.

Hey, Mr. Happy just got his first job in five years.  He knows how it is.

 Though looking askance at charity is an odd point of view considering that job is based entirely on soliciting gifts.

[Mr. Happy]

Hey, Mr. Happy just got his first job in five years.  He knows how it is.

 Though looking askance at charity is an odd point of view considering that job is based entirely on soliciting gifts.

I'm very much in favor of private charity and believe that the private sector is far better at doling out charity than the government, which has proven itself to be a disaster in that area, what with now generations stuck in the welfare cycle. If you make it more worthwhile to not work than to work, people will choose not to work. I never claimed any welfare, unemployment, food stamps or other government subsidy. I relied upon my family and my wife as well as my own industriousness and entrepreneurial skills. I favor a system that functions as a short-term safety net for those down on their luck.

[Mr. Happy]

In Houston, you have at least two options:  Holy Rosary in Midtown and Annunciation across from MMP both do Latin Masses on Sundays.


Also, if you want chanting and incense, find a Byzantine mass.

At our Extraordinary Rite (the formal name for the Latin Mass) in Rutherford, CA, our High Mass featured plenty of incense and plainsong chant.

[Mr. Happy]

Amen, brother. Ten percent of US Americans are out of work and each and every one of them is a lazy motherfucker.

Those "lazy motherfuckers" words were yours and not mine. Until recently, I was one of those unemployed American lazy motherfuckers, although I quibble with the government's statistics on unemployment because the real figures are closer to 15-17%. Even though I  was unemployed, I resisted claiming unemployment, even though I paid into the system for many years and could have done so with a clear conscience. I didn't want to start on the path to government dependence, so I refused to claim any government benefit. I relied upon my family and my own wits as well as God.

[chuck]

I relied upon my family and my own wits as well as God.

So understandably you eventually got a job.

[HudsonHawk]

I'm very much in favor of private charity and believe that the private sector is far better at doling out charity than the government, which has proven itself to be a disaster in that area, what with now generations stuck in the welfare cycle. If you make it more worthwhile to not work than to work, people will choose not to work. I never claimed any welfare, unemployment, food stamps or other government subsidy. I relied upon my family and my wife as well as my own industriousness and entrepreneurial skills. I favor a system that functions as a short-term safety net for those down on their luck.

As someone who once relied on that government assistence to eat every day, I would quibble with your characterization of it as a "disaster".

[NeilT]

At our Extraordinary Rite (the formal name for the Latin Mass) in Rutherford, CA, our High Mass featured plenty of incense and plainsong chant.

JimR would enter this discussion, but he's still ticked off at the Catholics for the 4th Crusade.

[Guinness]

As someone who once relied on that government assistence to eat every day, I would quibble with your characterization of it as a "disaster".

It's straight out of the fox/am radio playbook--SS and Medicare are bankrupt, whole generations of people being born, living, procreating and dying while on 'welfare' (because apparently $35/week for food is living large), some vague feeling that things were better in some Beaver Cleaver era that never existed, all this to be disseminated and taken as gospel without a shred of evidence to support it (other than anectodal welfare queen with a Cadillac type stories).

[Limey]

I'm very much in favor of private charity and believe that the private sector is far better at doling out charity than the government, which has proven itself to be a disaster in that area, what with now generations stuck in the welfare cycle. If you make it more worthwhile to not work than to work, people will choose not to work. I never claimed any welfare, unemployment, food stamps or other government subsidy. I relied upon my family and my wife as well as my own industriousness and entrepreneurial skills. I favor a system that functions as a short-term safety net for those down on their luck.

Paul Ryan's father died tragically when Paul was quite young.  The family survived in part due to Social Security survivor benefits, which Paul used, ultimately, to put himself through college so that he could read Ayn Rand and decide that anyone taking government handouts is a lazy sack and needs their safety net comfy chair taken away.

It's quite an amazing epiphany.  If Paul Ryan had been born 30 years before Paul Ryan, Paul Ryan wouldn't be in a position to take away from Paul Ryan the very benefits that Paul Ryan used to rise to a position where he was able to take away his own benefits.

[Limey]

It's straight out of the fox/am radio playbook--SS and Medicare are bankrupt, whole generations of people being born, living, procreating and dying while on 'welfare' (because apparently $35/week for food is living large), some vague feeling that things were better in some Beaver Cleaver era that never existed, all this to be disseminated and taken as gospel without a shred of evidence to support it (other than anectodal welfare queen with a Cadillac type stories).

Bill Maher expands on your point, and is much funnier.

[subnuclear]

And out come the talking points!

[MusicMan]

It's quite an amazing epiphany.  If Paul Ryan had been born 30 years before Paul Ryan, Paul Ryan wouldn't be in a position to take away from Paul Ryan the very benefits that Paul Ryan used to rise to a position where he was able to take away his own benefits.

Great scott!  Did he accidentally start dating his mother, and potentially erase himself from existence?

[Limey]

Great scott!  Did he accidentally start dating his mother, and potentially erase himself from existence?

Not yet...

[chuck]

Not yet...

What flavor of reality show do you think he'll end up in after the election?

[Noe]

Boring nonsensical rhetoric in here as much as it is out there. And all anyone wanted to know is how the Hurricane might actually effect us all.

[Bench]

So Isaac is expected to hit New Orleans seven years to the day of Katrina.  I guess a high pressure system created by the sudden increase in hot air being generated out of the Tampa area pushed it west?

[Ebby Calvin]

And all anyone wanted to know is how the Hurricane might actually effect us all.

In a weather sense or in a metaphysical sense?

[Limey]

So Isaac is expected to hit New Orleans seven years to the day of Katrina.  I guess a high pressure system created by the sudden increase in hot air being generated out of the Tampa area pushed it west?

Or...

[Bench]

In a weather sense or in a metaphysical sense?

In the Scorpions sense.

[Noe]

In a weather sense or in a metaphysical sense?

I just wonder if weather can be as polarizing a conversation as much as everything else seems to be nowadays. Everyone, to your corners and come out swinging - topic "Upper level disturbances"... Ready, set, GO!

[Bench]

I just wonder if weather can be as polarizing a conversation as much as everything else seems to be nowadays. Everyone, to your corners and come out swinging - topic "Upper level disturbances"... Ready, set, GO!

Maybe not weather, but do you want to discuss climate?

[BizidyDizidy]

Maybe not weather, but do you want to discuss climate?

You know why we are having all these hurricanes don't you?

[Noe]

Maybe not weather, but do you want to discuss climate?

If it means everyone speaks, no one listens... then yes, let's have ten pages worth of it! Line  up the demagogues!

[Noe]

You know why we are having all these hurricanes don't you?

Obama carrying a gun stalking Paul Ryan while he is on welfare?

[Andyzipp]

Obama carrying a gun stalking Paul Ryan while he is on welfare?

NBC mentioned this morning that it might be Bush's fault.

Seriously.

[NeilT]

NBC mentioned this morning that it might be Bush's fault.

They Astros?  I thought it was Ryan's fault?

[das]

You know why we are having all these hurricanes don't you?

http://cdn.gifstache.com/2012/8/8/gifstache.com_1361_1345950005.gif

[Bench]

http://cdn.gifstache.com/2012/8/8/gifstache.com_1361_1345950005.gif

And..... Godwin'd.

[Limey]

...and just to bring it full circle, today on his network, Pat Robertson said that God moved the hurricane away from Tampa to protect Ty Republicans.  He didn't say whether God felt bad about whacking NO again, but they clearly haven't cleaned up their act since the last time - again, according to Robertson - God sent a hurricane at them* as punishment for hosting a gay pride parade.

* Katrina actually hit rampantly Republican Mississippi, but we won't hold that against Pat.

[Ty in Tampa]

...and just to bring it full circle, today on his network, Pat Robertson said that God moved the hurricane away from Tampa to protect Ty Republicans.

That's horseshit and I know why. No Republican God-power has a chance against my hedonistic ways.

[das]

Something called hot towers going up around the eye right now. If there is significant strengthing of the storm, the most favorable time is now through the diurnal minimum tonight. Here's a pic. The hot towers are the 50,000 foot storm cells around the eye.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES212520122403muhTB.jpg

[Guinness]

And..... Godwin'd.

And to close the circle, we were talking about Pat Buchanon...this guy:

In a 1990 column defending Demjanjuk, Buchanan wrote: "Reportedly, half of the 20,000 survivor testimonies in Yad Vashem memorial in Jerusalem are considered 'unreliable' " because of "Holocaust Survivor Syndrome," which involves "group fantasies of martyrdom and heroics." Buchanan didn't say who "reported" this claim, which would fit in nicely in the most extreme Holocaust denial literature. Nor did he identify a source for his claim that Jews could not have been killed at Treblinka because "[d]iesel engines do not emit enough carbon monoxide to kill anybody," a claim he purported to prove by noting that, in 1988, "97 kids, trapped 400 feet underground in a Washington, DC tunnel while two locomotives spewed diesel exhaust into the car, emerged unharmed after 45 minutes." Buchanan later refused to tell journalist Jacob Weisberg where he got that anecdote, saying only, "Somebody sent it to me." Evidence strongly suggests the claim came from a Holocaust denial newsletter. Regardless of where Buchanan got his theories about diesel engines, the mass graves at Treblinka are rather more persuasive.
(PB quotes from Patrick Buchanan, "Dividing Line," New York Post, March 17, 1990).
[snip]
As an aide to President Reagan, Buchanan successfully urged his boss to visit Germany's Bitburg cemetery, where Nazi troops are buried. Buchanan was reportedly responsible for Reagan's statement that the SS troops buried there were "victims just as surely as the victims in the concentration camps."

If these quotes "show my liberal streak" then so be it;  I suspect a lot of people are as 'liberal' as I am on this guy.

[subnuclear]

Demjanjuk was found innocent by the Israelis. It was a case of mistaken identity apparently. But I guess it doesn't matter, when you want to smear someone who defended him a Nazi.

[HudsonHawk]

Demjanjuk was found innocent by the Israelis. It was a case of mistaken identity apparently. But I guess it doesn't matter, when you want to smear someone who defended him a Nazi.

Demjanjuk was convicted by the Israelis then his conviction was overturned. He was then convicted by the Germans.

[Bench]

You're both right.

Technically he died before the German appellate process ran it's course so his earlier conviction is invalidated.  The man is as innocent as Ken Lay.

And I have no problem based on what is generally known branding him a nazi and even less of a problem branding Buchanan an ass.

[subnuclear]

Demjanjuk was convicted by the Israelis then his conviction was overturned. He was then convicted by the Germans.

Of things he wasn't accused of in the Israeli trial.

[subnuclear]

And I have no problem based on what is generally known branding him a nazi and even less of a problem branding Buchanan an ass.

I'm sure you've given it a lot of thought since you didn't even recognize his name a day or two ago.

[HudsonHawk]

Of things he wasn't accused of in the Israeli trial.

So what's your point?

[Bench]

I'm sure you've given it a lot of thought since you didn't even recognize his name a day or two ago.

You honestly think Demjanjuk wasn't a nazi?

[Mr. Happy]

It's straight out of the fox/am radio playbook--SS and Medicare are bankrupt, whole generations of people being born, living, procreating and dying while on 'welfare' (because apparently $35/week for food is living large), some vague feeling that things were better in some Beaver Cleaver era that never existed, all this to be disseminated and taken as gospel without a shred of evidence to support it (other than anectodal welfare queen with a Cadillac type stories).

I don't watch Fox News or listen to AM radio anymore and haven't for a very long time. We'll have to agree to disagree about the proper role of government. I maintain that outside of the military, the federal government doesn't do anything well. Through my work with NA, I've witnessed first hand the fraud and abuse of AFDC, social security disability and unemployment benefits.

When you're handing out money based on need, the people's needs seem to sprout into wants, and fraud and abuse follows the money. However, just to show my consistency here, I'm very much against corporate welfare too. I think that the corporate income tax should be scrapped and federal subsidies of industry should be ended. Corporations become as dependent upon governmental benefits as individuals. Slap the hands; don't tread on me.

[NeilT]

I don't watch Fox News or listen to AM radio anymore and haven't for a very long time. We'll have to agree to disagree about the proper role of government. I maintain that outside of the military, the federal government doesn't do anything well. Through my work with NA, I've witnessed first hand the fraud and abuse of AFDC, social security disability and unemployment benefits.

When you're handing out money based on need, the people's needs seem to sprout into wants, and fraud and abuse follows the money. However, just to show my consistency here, I'm very much against corporate welfare too. I think that the corporate income tax should be scrapped and federal subsidies of industry should be ended. Corporations become as dependent upon governmental benefits as individuals. Slap the hands; don't tread on me.

I like the national parks.

[NeilT]

And I like food and drug safety.  I don't think either the state or private industry could do a better job at that stuff.

[NeilT]

I think I like the national center for disease control, but only because they've kept the zombie infection from spreading beyond the Astros.

[Bench]

The interstate highway system is pretty nifty.  Though I guess it could use some more money for an upgrade.  In Texas we would just sell it to Spain.

[Bench]

Could the FAA be improved through privatization?  I'm skeptical.

[MusicMan]

I love lamp.

[Limey]

The aqueduct?

[BizidyDizidy]

And I like food and drug safety.  I don't think either the state or private industry could do a better job at that stuff.

Free markets can handle this - you take ersatz pills, you die, other people don't buy from them. Works great (for the ones who don't die).

[MusicMan]

The aqueduct?

People called Romanes, they go to the house?

[Limey]

People called Romanes, they go to the house?

As someone who suffered through three years of mandatory Latin at a school where corporal punishment was encouraged allowed, I laugh at that scene every time.

[geezerdonk]

I think I like the national center for disease control, but only because they've kept the zombie infection from spreading beyond the Astros.

The CDC may have whiffed on this one.

[Limey]

The CDC may have whiffed on this one.

Zombie Evolution

[Bench]

Free markets can handle this - you take ersatz pills, you die, other people don't buy from them. Works great (for the ones who don't die).

Exactly.  A company would never do anything that harmed its customers.  It would go out of business!

/lights cigarette. 

[jbm]

Free markets can handle this - you take ersatz pills, you die, other people don't buy from them. Works great (for the ones who don't die).

I had a serious discussion (tone at least) with someone on this.  He actually believes that the ability to sue will keep everyone safe.  He is one of those Ron Paul/Ayn Rand true believers.  Follow that logic just a bit further, and there is little need for police, since suits will deter all forms of criminality.

Mr. Happy, I understand the military argument, as something that only government can do, but I don't know why anyone uses that as an example of governmental efficiency.  

[BizidyDizidy]

Why can't we have private military, police, fire, etc.? I like Stephenson's Franchulate model myself.

[MusicMan]

Why can't we have private military, police, fire, etc.? I like Stephenson's Franchulate model myself.

We've already halfway privatized the military.

[Limey]

We've already halfway privatized the military.

Here's an article from 2008 discussing KBR's propensity for shoddy wiring that had killed - by that date - 12 soldiers serving in Iraq.  With friends like KBR...

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Here's an article from 2008 discussing KBR's propensity for shoddy wiring that had killed - by that date - 12 soldiers serving in Iraq.  With friends like KBR...

Thus completing the hi-jacking of this thread...

[Taras Bulba]

Thus completing the hi-jacking of this thread...

As far as I know, that's the first time that's ever happened here.

[Mr. Happy]

I had a serious discussion (tone at least) with someone on this.  He actually believes that the ability to sue will keep everyone safe.  He is one of those Ron Paul/Ayn Rand true believers.  Follow that logic just a bit further, and there is little need for police, since suits will deter all forms of criminality.

Mr. Happy, I understand the military argument, as something that only government can do, but I don't know why anyone uses that as an example of governmental efficiency.  

Note that doing it well and doing it efficiently are not the same thing. I don't believe that the military has ever been efficient, but I do believe that our military has been very effective where the politicians have permitted it to do so.

[chuck]

I had a serious discussion (tone at least) with someone on this.  He actually believes that the ability to sue will keep everyone safe.  He is one of those Ron Paul/Ayn Rand true believers.  Follow that logic just a bit further, and there is little need for police, since suits will deter all forms of criminality.

Goodman robber, why, I must insist you cease brandishing your firearm forthwith! I beg you to realize that I consider your actions of aggression with respect to my personal property a highly actionable tort!

[Bench]

Goodman robber, why, I must insist you cease brandishing your firearm forthwith! I beg you to realize that I consider your actions of aggression with respect to my personal property a highly actionable tort!

I have a feeling that there are going to be problems effecting service of process under this scheme. 

[HudsonHawk]

I have a feeling that there are going to be problems effecting service of process under this scheme. 

You, sir, are no gentleman bandit!

[Waldo]

Goodman robber, why, I must insist you cease brandishing your firearm forthwith! I beg you to realize that I consider your actions of aggression with respect to my personal property a highly actionable tort!

This reads an awful lot like a Joseph Ducreux meme.

[ybbodeus]

So is Isaac suddenly The Thing That Wouldn't Leave?

[EasTexAstro]

So is Isaac suddenly The Thing That Wouldn't Leave?

Are you trying to introduce weather into a political thread?

[das]

So is Isaac suddenly The Thing That Wouldn't Leave?

Pretty much.  In internal NWS dialogue, they call it Isaacson.  Funny thing is the trough to the north is expected to pull the exposed low level center to the NE (then dissipate it) and leave the sheared convective blob behind in the N.Central Gulf and possibly develop that in 4-6 days.  They're calling that "Trip".  You can see the players really well here:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20120906&endtime=1758&nframes=60&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=2400&aniheight=1372#form

Trough is the line of developing storms on the TX/OK border stretching up thru Missouri.  The low level center is the gyre just south of Mobile Bay and the convective complex that might become Trip is the cluster of thunderstorms to the SW of the low level center being stripped off of the developing tropical depression by high mid-level winds from the NE.

[Ebby Calvin]

So...what's up with the Frankenstorm?

[remy]

So...what's up with the Frankenstorm?

Allow me.

[das]

So...what's up with the Frankenstorm?

It's a beast.  The breadth and scope of the storm is historic and unprecedented.  Tropical storm winds are now 1,000 miles across and hurricanes force winds are now out to almost 500 miles.  This is over 6 standard deviations above normal.  I am 200 miles inland and I'll be 100 miles from the center of the storm when it passes to my northeast tomorrow morning.  Still, I'll receive 8"+ of rain and will receive sustained winds of 45-50mph for 18 hours with gusts from 60-70mph for 14 of those 18 hours.  40 miles to my west, there will be 24-36" of snow as the arctic front continues to merge with the tropical storm.  Huge snow totals will be realized all up and down the Appalachian chain.  People to the north of the storm in NJ and NY will have it much worse, especially on the coast.  I hope that no one was foolish enough to ride out the storm in the bays and beaches in N. New Jersey and along Long Island.  I also Hope Bloomberg has come to his senses and started to treat this storm with the respect it deserves.

A storm's realized potential is measured in its integrated kinetic energy.  Basically, its realized ability, measured in terajoules, to move mass at speed.  The two largest ever measured were hurricanes Ike and Katrina.  Sandy is nearly 50% more powerful at 329tj.  Here's the plot from the Hurricane Research Division's Atlantic Oceanographic and Atmospheric Lab:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/Operational/2012/AL182012/1029/1330/AL182012_1029_1330_contour08.png

Here's a couple of scholarly papers on the metric, if anyone is interested:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Powell/BAMS_IKE_Paper_final.pdf

The storm is now back up to 90mph in it's central warm core.  This does not matter much as the core will dissipate quickly once it finishes passing the gulf stream in a few hours and begins its extratropical transition due to the barclonic forcing (frontal systems) that are nearby.  This will not diminish the storm, rather, that extra shot of energy will be transferred outwards to the already invigorated feeder bands.  Just an amazing storm; the perfected "perfect storm".
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-89-2-219

[subnuclear]

In somewhat pointless comparisons, the yield of the 'Little Boy' weapon dropped on Hiroshima was 50-84 teraJoules.

[Limey]

For those interested/able, here's a link to a YouTube live feed of The Weather Channel.

[Ebby Calvin]

It's pretty quiet here so far.  A little rain, a little wind.  Nothing crazy yet.

[das]

In somewhat pointless comparisons, the yield of the 'Little Boy' weapon dropped on Hiroshima was 50-84 teraJoules.

Impressive nonetheless.  That 329tj was only for the tropical storm envelope.  The hurricane core as an additional 12tj and the sub-tropical is estimated at ~20tj.  All these numbers are for a 1-minute interval.  another minute, another 362tj's of kinetic energy...

[das]

It's pretty quiet here so far.  A little rain, a little wind.  Nothing crazy yet.

Where are you?

[Ebby Calvin]

Where are you?

Midtown NYC. 50th@Lex.

[Limey]

Midtown NYC. 50th@Lex.

Nice!  Waterfront property in 5...

[Ebby Calvin]

Nice!  Waterfront property in 5...

Yep.  A construction crane just fell over several blocks away.  Lots of sirens.

[remy]

I know it might sound crazy, but I'm a little jealous of Ebby.

[Ebby Calvin]

I know it might sound crazy, but I'm a little jealous of Ebby.

As you should be, but not for this reason.

[remy]

As you should be, but not for this reason.

I think it just speaks to what a boring life I have.

[Ebby Calvin]

During Ike my wife and I made up a drinking game to get us through the surge.  Every time someone said "hunker down" we took a drink.  She passed out at midnight and slept blissfully through the storm.

I only have 3/4 bottle of Laphroaig left in my stash, but these yankees just don't use the phrase enough.

[Limey]

Yep.  A construction crane just fell over several blocks away.  Lots of sirens.

57th street.

[Limey]

During Ike my wife and I made up a drinking game to get us through the surge.  Every time someone said "hunker down" we took a drink.  She passed out at midnight and slept blissfully through the storm.

I only have 3/4 bottle of Laphroaig left in my stash, but these yankees just don't use the phrase enough.

Here's some hurricane tips, courtesy of The Onion, to get you through.

[das]

Midtown NYC. 50th@Lex.

Be careful and safe.

[OregonStrosFan]

Interesting stuff das.

Here's the plot from the Hurricane Research Division's Atlantic Oceanographic and Atmospheric Lab:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/Operational/2012/AL182012/1029/1330/AL182012_1029_1330_contour08.png

BTW, I can't get the above link to work. My issue or link issue?

[Guinness]

Interesting stuff das.

BTW, I can't get the above link to work. My issue or link issue?

Looks like the link.  Take out the http:// in front of the ftp://
thus:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/Operational/2012/AL182012/1029/1330/AL182012_1029_1330_contour08.png

[remy]

The autolinkinkg feature in smf is acting stupid.

Just copy this into your browser:
ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/Operational/2012/AL182012/1029/1330/AL182012_1029_1330_contour08.png

[Ebby Calvin]

It's getting pretty nasty here.  Howling winds.  Don't know if I'll see a large amount of water, but if I don't lose power I'll be amazed.
I hope Biz and Rueben and Alkie and das and everybody else in the storm path are safe and sound.

[das]

The autolinkinkg feature in smf is acting stupid.

Just copy this into your browser:
ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/Operational/2012/AL182012/1029/1330/AL182012_1029_1330_contour08.png

Tat works or you guys can just go here:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/sandy2012/wind.html

Choose the 2, 4 or 8 degree resolution for the plot at different resolutions.

[das]

It's getting pretty nasty here.  Howling winds.  Don't know if I'll see a large amount of water, but if I don't lose power I'll be amazed.
I hope Biz and Rueben and Alkie and das and everybody else in the storm path are safe and sound.

Thanks.  Please stay indoors, Ebby (and Alkie and other NYC posters).  The peak will be on you in the next 30 minutes and will last a good 4 hours.  There are reports of partial building failures and the area around that construction sky crane that failed has been evacuated as it is swaying and NYFD is fearful that it is about to fall.  Signs have started to fail and are coming down in pieces or in whole.

Battery Park storm surge is up to 12.51 feet and rising fast.  The all time record was 10.50 feet.  This is a dangerous, unprecedented situation.  Please be safe.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

I'm already getting tired of the branding "Super Storm" but wow, what a storm. Subway tunnels are flooded. Hope all you guys in NYC are out of harms way. It's going to take a while to get everything back in order.

[Ebby Calvin]

Hope everybody made it ok.  No problems here, never lost power.

[Bench]

Hope everybody made it ok.  No problems here, never lost power.

My brother in Lefferts Garden, Brooklyn still has power.  And no flooding, which is fortunate because Irene flooded his basement last year.  I friend of mine the West Village lost power around 9:00 last night and doesn't have it back yet, and another friend in Westchester County got a tree through his living room (but still has power). 

Glad you're doing well.  Nasty storm.  Lords knows how long until the tunnels between Brooklyn and Manhattan are back in working order. 

[BizidyDizidy]

Pretty much a non-event in park slope (lights flickered a few times, but that was it). Barely any rain, some gusty winds. Would have just seemed like a windy storm. Obviously very lucky compared to some of the crazy pictures I have seen,

[subnuclear]

I lost power, but my work has everything on including showers and coffee. Sounded like a bunch of banshees last night.

[OregonStrosFan]

The Old Guard stands its post

[NeilT]

The Old Guard stands its post

Pretty cool.