Updated top 20 prospect list

[pots]

Good news, they updated the list.  The bad news is that it was done by a complete idiot.

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=hou

Before:

1) Singleton
2) Cosart
3) Springer
4) Villar
5) Folty
6) Clemens
7) Oberholtzer
8 ) DeShields
9) Santana
10) Nash
11) Jordan Scott
12) Bushue
13) Wates
14) Chapman
15) Weiland
16) Buchanan
17) Tropeano
18) Juan Abreu
19) Zied
20) Kvasnicka

After:

1) Jonathan Singleton
2) Jarred Cosart
3) George Springer
4) Matt Dominguez
5) Jonathan Villar
6) Mike Foltynewicz
7) Joe Musgrove
8 ) Paul Clemens
9) Brett Oberholtzer
10) Delino DeShields
11) Asher Wojciechowski
12) Domingo Santana
13) Rob Rasmussen
14) Telvin Nash
15) Carlos Perez
16) Jordan Scott
17) Tanner Bushue
18) Austin Wates
19) Kevin Chapman
20) Kyle Weiland

[pots]

1) Jonathan Singleton
2) Jarred Cosart
3) George Springer
4) Matt Dominguez (too high)
5) Jonathan Villar
6) Mike Foltynewicz
7) Joe Musgrove (too high)
8 ) Paul Clemens (should have fallen off the list)
9) Brett Oberholtzer (too high)
10) Delino DeShields (too low)
11) Asher Wojciechowski
12) Domingo Santana
13) Rob Rasmussen (doesn't belong on list)
14) Telvin Nash (should have fallen off the list)
15) Carlos Perez
16) Jordan Scott (too many other good names for this guy to make the list)
17) Tanner Bushue (Bushue has fallen so far from the list he might be a free agent soon)
18) Austin Wates
19) Kevin Chapman
20) Kyle Weiland (doesn't belong on list)


Where the heck did Tropeano go?  What idiot looked at the prior list and decided he should fall off?  

[jbm]

I saw McTaggart point that out, went to the site, and just shook my head.  I find his rankings idiotic, but if he knew me, he'd probably figure I'm an idiot also.  It is a crying shame that there is not a way to gamble on these things.

[Reuben]

1) Jonathan Singleton
2) Jarred Cosart
3) George Springer
4) Matt Dominguez (too high)
5) Jonathan Villar
6) Mike Foltynewicz
7) Joe Musgrove (too high)
8 ) Paul Clemens (should have fallen off the list)
9) Brett Oberholtzer (too high)
10) Delino DeShields (too low)
11) Asher Wojciechowski
12) Domingo Santana
13) Rob Rasmussen (doesn't belong on list)
14) Telvin Nash (should have fallen off the list)
15) Carlos Perez
16) Jordan Scott (too many other good names for this guy to make the list)
17) Tanner Bushue (Bushue has fallen so far from the list he might be a free agent soon)
18) Austin Wates
19) Kevin Chapman
20) Kyle Weiland (doesn't belong on list)


Where the heck did Tropeano go?  What idiot looked at the prior list and decided he should fall off?  

I had much the same puzzled reaction. I think someone (Mayo?) just stuck the new guys in, without any thought to re-evaluating the guys already there- they're all in the same order as before. I agree that Dominguez seems too high, but who knows about Musgrove and Rasmussen?

Besides Tropeano, I also wonder about guys like Houser, Vincent Velazquez, Jose Martinez (too old?), Brandon Barnes (ditto?), Ovando, Toney, and Mier (who was hitting well before his injury, and who I assume is still a plus SS). Any of those guys could arguably make it over the likes of Scott, Bushue, Chapman, Weiland, et al. Of course, that's without even considering the 2012 draftees.

[juliogotay]

While this list is probably not terribly reflective of the actual order, only seven of the 20 were drafted by Houston and only 3 of the top ten. Of course none of this years' draft is on this list which, further skews the list to non-drafted players when it seems hard to deny a handful of those guys should be represented here based on their tool kits.

[juliogotay]

Here is a list that is a better reflection, I believe, of the system today after the recent deals. http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2012/7/22/3176399/my-new-top-25-prospect-list

[pots]

Given the restriction of not including this years drafted guys, my guess:
1) Singleton
2) Cosart
3) Springer
4) DeShields
5) Tropeano
6) Folty
7) Villar
8 ) Santana
9) Cisnero
10) Oberholtzer
11) Matt Dominguez
12 Houser
13) Vincent Velazquez
14) Joe Musgrove
15) Asher Wojciechowski
16) Ariel Ovando
17) Alaniz
18) Carlos Perez
19) Kevin Chapman
20) Seaton

Others that should be mentioned: Brandon Barnes (too old to make the top 20 but doing well enough to have earned a chance at the majors), Paredes (played a few too many games in the majors), Jose Martinez (really etaring it up at Corpus missed a couple of years with injuries), Mier, Kvasnicka, Wates, Micheal Feliz

[pots]

Inserting in this years draft:
1) Singleton
2) Cosart
3) Correa
4) Springer
5) DeShields
6) Tropeano
7) McCullers
8 ) Folty
9) Villar
10) Santana
11) Cisnero
12) Oberholtzer
13) Matt Dominguez
14) Fontana
15) Houser
16) Ruiz
17) Vincent Velazquez
18) Joe Musgrove
19) Asher Wojciechowski
20) Wates
21) Alaniz
22) Preston Tucker
23) Carlos Perez
24) Brady Rodgers
25) Kevin Chapman
26) Phillips
27) Seaton
28) Andrew Aplin
29) Aaron West

[jbm]

Here is a list that is a better reflection, I believe, of the system today after the recent deals. http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2012/7/22/3176399/my-new-top-25-prospect-list

This looks better to me, but none of us, or Mayo, or Law, or Goldstein, or Callis is qualified to make this list.  The only people who are actually qualified don't publish their list.  Those would be talent evaluators with the Astros, as they are the only ones who have ever seen all these players and are capable of honest comparisons.

I'm not trying to damper list watching or list discussion, and I realize it is assholish to do so, but I always thinks it needs repeating that "evaluating" and ranking minor leaguers by stats alone, without ever seeing how the stats are earned, is folly.   

[Reuben]

Wow, everybody's giving up on Nash, huh? Obviously he's a flawed player, who may never figure out how to make enough contact to break the Mendoza Line in MLB, but he is still just 21 years old, with barely 1000 professional PA's. And he's patient enough to draw a bunch of walks. Suppose he puts it together? Seems like that's at least worth an honorable mention, or a spot in the Top 25-30.

[moriartp]

I don't think that list is actually an "updated" top 20. It's the same top 20 from the beginning of the season with the new guys shoehorned in, apparently where they too would have ranked at the beginning of the season. Dominguez's top 100 ranking is the only reason he's our "4th best prospect" right now. Guys like DeShields, Santana, and Tropeano would be ranked much higher if anyone had actually "updated" the list—I don't think anyone would say they rank 10, 12, and 20-something right now.

[pots]

Wow, everybody's giving up on Nash, huh? Obviously he's a flawed player, who may never figure out how to make enough contact to break the Mendoza Line in MLB, but he is still just 21 years old, with barely 1000 professional PA's. And he's patient enough to draw a bunch of walks. Suppose he puts it together? Seems like that's at least worth an honorable mention, or a spot in the Top 25-30.

The future DH candidate who has struck out 146 times in 287 at bats.  The DH part alone keeps him out of the top 10.  >50% k rate finishes him off.   Plus he has gotten worse as the season has progressed.  He's a repeat candidate at High-A next year.   So he'll be a 22 year old DH candidate at High-A next year.  

[Reuben]

The future DH candidate who has struck out 146 times in 287 at bats.  The DH part alone keeps him out of the top 10.  >50% k rate finishes him off.   Plus he has gotten worse as the season has progressed.  He's a repeat candidate at High-A next year.   So he'll be a 22 year old DH candidate at High-A next year.  

And Preston Tucker, right now, is a 22 year-old DH candidate in short-season A. You put him #22. This gets into a bit of a floor/ceiling debate. Nash surely has the lower floor but also the higher ceiling. He has led the CAL league in HR most of the year despite the sorry K rate and average. This after having encouraging seasons in GVL and LEX, despite injuries. I'm just saying, perhaps it's a bit early to totally write him off.

[Lefty]

Prospect lists are incredibly useful when you're arbitrarily listing prospects.

Why does anyone really care, other than it being something to talk about?  Let them play.

[jaklewein]

...other than it being something to talk about? 

I think you hit the nail on the head.  What else do we really have to talk about?

[astrosfan76]

Inserting in this years draft:
1) Singleton
2) Cosart
3) Correa
4) Springer
5) DeShields
6) Tropeano
7) McCullers
8 ) Folty
9) Villar
10) Santana
11) Cisnero
12) Oberholtzer
13) Matt Dominguez
14) Fontana
15) Houser
16) Ruiz
17) Vincent Velazquez
18) Joe Musgrove
19) Asher Wojciechowski
20) Wates
21) Alaniz
22) Preston Tucker
23) Carlos Perez
24) Brady Rodgers
25) Kevin Chapman
26) Phillips
27) Seaton
28) Andrew Aplin
29) Aaron West

I think you've given up on Ovando a little too soon.  We know he has a high ceiling and he is putting up an .861 OPS as an 18-year old at Greeneville.  K rate of 1/game is higher than you'd like, but walk rate has gotten better recently.  I'd be surprised if he's not in the top 20. 

[Reuben]

I think you hit the nail on the head.  What else do we really have to talk about?

Bingo. The TZ went three whole days (prior to the Toronto trade) without one single post, but the Bus Ride has been jumpin'. It gives us something un-depressing to talk about.

[pots]

I think you've given up on Ovando a little too soon.  We know he has a high ceiling and he is putting up an .861 OPS as an 18-year old at Greeneville.  K rate of 1/game is higher than you'd like, but walk rate has gotten better recently.  I'd be surprised if he's not in the top 20. 

Nope, just lost him on a cut and paste

[pots]

Inserting in this years draft:
1) Singleton
2) Cosart
3) Correa
4) Springer
5) DeShields
6) Tropeano
7) McCullers
8 ) Folty
9) Villar
10) Santana
11) Cisnero
12) Oberholtzer
13) Matt Dominguez
14) Fontana
15) Houser
16) Ruiz
17) Vincent Velazquez
18) Joe Musgrove
19) Asher Wojciechowski
20) Ariel Ovando
21) Alaniz
22) Preston Tucker
23) Carlos Perez
24) Brady Rodgers
25) Kevin Chapman
26) Phillips
27) Seaton
28) Andrew Aplin
29) Aaron West

[Lefty]

I think you hit the nail on the head.  What else do we really have to talk about?

Yep, you're right, and I wasn't really talking about this place at all.  I guess I've seen too much prospect-porn.

[juliogotay]

 Luhnow just in the booth with the guys. Cabel just saw West pitch and sent in glowing reports.

[OregonStrosFan]

Mayo on the Astros farm system (and maybe an updated top 20?!? linked to it?!?): LINK

[astrosfan76]

Mayo on the Astros farm system (and maybe an updated top 20?!? linked to it?!?): LINK

I don't know, still no '12 draftees.  A new list at this point should have some of those guys.

[OregonStrosFan]

I don't know, still no '12 draftees.  A new list at this point should have some of those guys.

IIRC, BA doesn't include new draftees in its updated top 20s during the seasons so perhaps Mayo does the same? [/WildAssGuess]

[Reuben]

I have no problem with it not including 2012 draftees yet, but that list seems really wack to me. It's the same problem we talked about before- someone has just dropped in the trade acquisitions to the preseason Astros list, without re-evaluating any of the players. Otherwise, how the hell is DeShields behind Clemens and Oberholtzer? And how is Dominguez #4?? It just seems pasted together with very little thought behind it.

[MusicMan]

BP's preliminary rank of the Astros' new top 10 players under 25 (including major leaguers):

1. Singleton
2. Correa
3. Springer
4. Altuve
5. Lyles
6. Cosart
7. DeShields
8. Cain
9. Folty
10. Grossman

[astrosfan76]

BP's preliminary rank of the Astros' new top 10 players under 25 (including major leaguers):

1. Singleton
2. Correa
3. Springer
4. Altuve
5. Lyles
6. Cosart
7. DeShields
8. Cain
9. Folty
10. Grossman

Cain at #8?  Huh.  I'd like to see their reasoning.  I guess a case can be made, but I don't know that I would have him over Tropeano, McCullers, even Folty. 

[OregonStrosFan]

BP's preliminary rank of the Astros' new top 10 players under 25 (including major leaguers):

1. Singleton
2. Correa
3. Springer
4. Altuve
5. Lyles
6. Cosart
7. DeShields
8. Cain
9. Folty
10. Grossman

2 things: (1) I appreciate that a lot of these kids are projected to be very good (Singleton, Correa, Springer) and hope that they are, but just don't see how they could be slotted above a kid that is already doing it well at the MLB level (Altuve); (2) I hadn't realized how behind I was on the prospects from the recent trades until I had to figure out who this [Colton] 'Cain' kid was (he'd just been the TX LHP to me until now...).  Other than that, I'm generally fine with the list (but think Tropeano is about to force his way onto it as well...).

[moriartp]

Cain at #8?  Huh.  I'd like to see their reasoning.  I guess a case can be made, but I don't know that I would have him over Tropeano, McCullers, even Folty. 

I had the same reaction. His basic stats aren't great, nor are his peripheral/fielding independent numbers, and there's nothing in his scouting report that would justify ranking him that high. His stuff isn't exceptional, he's not exceptionally young for his league, etc. Not to say that he's a weak prospect, but I also have no idea why they would rank him ahead of the guys you mentioned. But alas, rankings of this sort are fairly useless.

[OregonStrosFan]

I had the same reaction. His basic stats aren't great, nor are his peripheral/fielding independent numbers, and there's nothing in his scouting report that would justify ranking him that high. His stuff isn't exceptional, he's not exceptionally young for his league, etc. Not to say that he's a weak prospect, but I also have no idea why they would rank him ahead of the guys you mentioned. But alas, rankings of this sort are fairly useless.

See 'LHP, breathing' perhaps?!?

[Reuben]

Perhaps most surprising is that 6 of the 10 were drafted/signed by the Astros, 5 of those pre-Luhnow. Slight bit of redemption for Bobby Heck, I guess.

[roadrunner]

Which trade is Cain from?

[OregonStrosFan]

Which trade is Cain from?

Wandy.

[Foghorn]

BP's preliminary rank of the Astros' new top 10 players under 25 (including major leaguers):

1. Singleton
2. Correa
3. Springer
4. Altuve
5. Lyles
6. Cosart
7. DeShields
8. Cain
9. Folty
10. Grossman

deshields too low.

springer too high.

santana needs to be on the list

[Mike S.]

Perhaps most surprising is that 6 of the 10 were drafted/signed by the Astros, 5 of those pre-Luhnow. Slight bit of redemption for Bobby Heck, I guess.

My thought exactly.

[BudGirl]

Perhaps most surprising is that 6 of the 10 were drafted/signed by the Astros, 5 of those pre-Luhnow. Slight bit of redemption for Bobby Heck, I guess.

How many years was Heck here and Luhnow has 1 year?  Heck should have more, but only 2 more?

[Reuben]

How many years was Heck here and Luhnow has 1 year?  Heck should have more, but only 2 more?

I meant more compared to the players acquired in trades the last few years, which had started to shove Heck's picks off of most Astros prospect/ young talent rankings.

Although, I think Altuve was actually signed pre-Heck, so he only drafted 4 of them plus Correa.

[Duman]

[soapbox]No one can take credit for Altuve but Altuve.  The scout sent him home from the first day of tryouts before they even began.  Altuve get's credit for being signed by showing up the second day.  He then forced their hand based on his performance. 

He tears up the VSL ( and then is brought to Greeneville.  I  asked a Astros coach about him and he said "he has make up issues" (translation - he is too short).  He hits .284 as an 18 year old in the Appy and is sent back for a second season.  If you are wondering who blocked him for promotion, it was Barry Butera in Tri Cities and Albert Cartwright in Lexington (who hit 306 sharing time with Altuve in Gville in 08).  He hit over .300 in Lexington in 2010 and earned a late season promotion to Lancaster.  He returned to Lancaster to start 2011 (blocked by Wikoff and Peredes) until he hit close to .400 for much of the first half of the season.  The rest is history.   

IMO, the Astros are lucky he came to their tryout camp. 

/end[soapbox]

[OregonStrosFan]

[soapbox]No one can take credit for Altuve but Altuve.  The scout sent him home from the first day of tryouts before they even began.  Altuve get's credit for being signed by showing up the second day.  He then forced their hand based on his performance. 

He tears up the VSL ( and then is brought to Greeneville.  I  asked a Astros coach about him and he said "he has make up issues" (translation - he is too short).  He hits .284 as an 18 year old in the Appy and is sent back for a second season.  If you are wondering who blocked him for promotion, it was Barry Butera in Tri Cities and Albert Cartwright in Lexington (who hit 306 sharing time with Altuve in Gville in 08).  He hit over .300 in Lexington in 2010 and earned a late season promotion to Lancaster.  He returned to Lancaster to start 2011 (blocked by Wikoff and Peredes) until he hit close to .400 for much of the first half of the season.  The rest is history.   

IMO, the Astros are lucky he came to their tryout camp. 

/end[soapbox]   

You didn't request an Amen here, but let me simply add a hearty AMEN to this statement!

[NeilT]

[soapbox]No one can take credit for Altuve but Altuve.  The scout sent him home from the first day of tryouts before they even began.  Altuve get's credit for being signed by showing up the second day.  He then forced their hand based on his performance. 

He tears up the VSL ( and then is brought to Greeneville.  I  asked a Astros coach about him and he said "he has make up issues" (translation - he is too short).  He hits .284 as an 18 year old in the Appy and is sent back for a second season.  If you are wondering who blocked him for promotion, it was Barry Butera in Tri Cities and Albert Cartwright in Lexington (who hit 306 sharing time with Altuve in Gville in 08).  He hit over .300 in Lexington in 2010 and earned a late season promotion to Lancaster.  He returned to Lancaster to start 2011 (blocked by Wikoff and Peredes) until he hit close to .400 for much of the first half of the season.  The rest is history.   

IMO, the Astros are lucky he came to their tryout camp. 

/end[soapbox]

The flip side is that he would have never had a chance in a decent organization.   It's hard to believe anyone in the baseball world wouldn't have said he's too short.

[Duman]

BTW There is another guy, Alexi Amarista, who is making a splash as a short middle infielder for the Padres. 

[astrosfan76]

MLB.com posted an updated Top 20 list for each team.  Here's a writeup of the system.

Houston's system features five players ranked in MLB's Top 100 Prospect list -- first baseman Jonathan Singleton (No. 11), shortstop Correa (38), center fielder George Springer (55), right-hander Jarred Cosart (84) and second baseman Delino DeShields Jr. (85). Using a scoring system that awards 100 points to the team with the No. 1 prospect, 99 to the team with No. 2 and so on, the Astros were ranked 22nd to begin the season. That ranking has jumped to No. 12.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120906&content_id=37978070&vkey=news_hou&c_id=hou

And a link to the list, itself:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=hou

[juliogotay]

Thanks for sharing. Amazing how many of these guys have come to the orgization the last two seasons.

[Reuben]

Wow, Mayo really did not like the Wandy trade I guess: no Grossman, Owens, or Cain in the Top 20. Nobody from the Myers trade either, whereas basically everyone from the Toronto and Miami deals is in there.

[juliogotay]

Wow, Mayo really did not like the Wandy trade I guess: no Grossman, Owens, or Cain in the Top 20. Nobody from the Myers trade either, whereas basically everyone from the Toronto and Miami deals is in there.

I was surprised Grossman didn't rate a Top 20 ranking. It's good that there is enough depth that good prospects don't make the list. He may have been a Top 5 a couple of years back.

[astrosfan76]

I was surprised Grossman didn't rate a Top 20 ranking. It's good that there is enough depth that good prospects don't make the list. He may have been a Top 5 a couple of years back.

Some guys see him as a utility OF, at best, at the MLB level due to his lack of a standout tool.  If Mayo's in that camp, I take that as a compliment at how far the system has come.  Overall, there were only a couple of rankings I was really surprised by:  Santana, and to a lesser degree, Tropeano.  I would put Ovando in a top 20 list, but he is still very far away and what do I know?  So, I can see the case for excluding him.

[jbm]

Not that at reeally matters, but I heard Duquette a few days ago relay the the thought of a scout who had been watching the Hooks.  Said he wasn't impressed by the guys obtained in the recent trades, and Springer cannot hit a fastball.

I take all that with a few grains of salt.

 

[Reuben]

That's funny. I suppose Springer must be pretty good at getting himself into pitchers' counts, so they'll throw him breaking balls, eh? Like Br'er Rabbit and the briar patch.

[jbm]

That's funny. I suppose Springer must be pretty good at getting himself into pitchers' counts, so they'll throw him breaking balls, eh? Like Br'er Rabbit and the briar patch.

Pure conjecture, since I haven't seen him, but I suspect Springer gets into those funks, where that ugly-ass swing Klima reported on surfaces.  During those periods, he most likely can't even hit a fastball, or anything else.  The scout must have seen him during one of those funks, saw him miss fastballs, and it stuck in his mind.  Remember, he has had games where he struck out four or five times, and I doubt he looks good during those games. 

Like I said, it doesn't mean much much to me, but it also doesn't surprise me that if you see him during those periods, he must look pretty bad.  The real question is whether those periods can be overcome, or at least minimized. 

[geezerdonk]

He really likes the Pence trade.

[pots]

There are about 10 guys I can think of to replace Clemens at 20th

[Reuben]

Another encouraging sign: the Cards also have 5 kids in the MLB.com top 100, all of whom were drafted or signed by Luhnow, and their #6 guy is listed as the #3 1B prospect.

[juliogotay]

Another encouraging sign: the Cards also have 5 kids in the MLB.com top 100, all of whom were drafted or signed by Luhnow, and their #6 guy is listed as the #3 1B prospect.

And we know their draft position was not as favorable as Houston's the past five or so years.