.500

[Navin R Johnson]

was discussing this last night.  What is the earliest the Astros could reasonably expect to finish a season at or above .500?

Considering the way they are going about building a team, which I fully agree with, building through the farm, not signing big$ FAs, etc... what would be your guess?  2015?

[subnuclear]

The Nats had back to back 59 win seasons in 2008-2009. If you compare that to 2011-2012 Astros then 2015-2016. However, the Nats also added free agents and got super lucky with the draft. So that's a best case scenario. If the Pirates finish above .500 this year, it will be the first time since 1992.

[Mr. Happy]

I think that .500 could be achieved in 2014 if (and this is a big if) some of the prospects that we presently have down on the farm pan out at the big league level by then. But Subnuclear is right, playing sub .500 could conceivably last for a long time. I strongly suspect that Crane hates to lose and takes it personally and seriously (also since it is affecting his bottom line severely), so it's conceivable that around 2014-2015, if the farm isn't producing results, besides getting a new management team then due to poor performance, he'd entertain a major FA acquisition. However, all of this is a WAG on my part based upon my sense of Crane from his interviews.

[roadrunner]

Yeah I had a similar discussion last night with a friend.  How long of a leash does Luhnow have?  Even if the team sucks in 2014, I think you need at least 4 years to judge the product of farm system he is building now.  So does he have 5-6 years?  Correa theoretically would hit his peak in 2022.

[Mr. Happy]

Yeah I had a similar discussion last night with a friend.  How long of a leash does Luhnow have?  Even if the team sucks in 2014, I think you need at least 4 years to judge the product of farm system he is building now.  So does he have 5-6 years?  Correa theoretically would hit his peak in 2022.

You're probably right. My WAG is that he's got up to five years to produce some big league ready players from his drafts. However, my point was that if we're not turning the corner by 2014, I wouldn't be surprised if Crane authorizes a big FA acquisition to speed the process along.

[HudsonHawk]

The Nats had back to back 59 win seasons in 2008-2009. If you compare that to 2011-2012 Astros then 2015-2016. However, the Nats also added free agents and got super lucky with the draft. So that's a best case scenario. If the Pirates finish above .500 this year, it will be the first time since 1992.

Yeah, but the Astros aren't anywhere close to a 59-win team. I'll be shocked if they win 45.

[Fredia]

sad but true and guess  the race for the lid will go winerless

[moriartp]

Yeah, but the Astros aren't anywhere close to a 59-win team. I'll be shocked if they win 45.

It's all part of the plan, says Olney: Rival execs noting Astros are following path of Devil Rays: Field a team so bad that they will draft No. 1 or near top of draft for years.

[jbm]

It's all part of the plan, says Olney: Rival execs noting Astros are following path of Devil Rays: Field a team so bad that they will draft No. 1 or near top of draft for years.

Nice plan for building and keeping a fan base.

[moriartp]

Nice plan for building and keeping a fan base.

Who needs a fan base when you have a giant ad board in left field?

[Reuben]

Yeah, but the Astros aren't anywhere close to a 59-win team. I'll be shocked if they win 45.

They have 34 wins now. You'll be shocked if they win 11 out of their remaining 67 games (a .164 win %)? I will say, they have a good shot at losing more games than last year. They'll need to win 1/3 of their games from here out to avoid it.

[HudsonHawk]

They have 34 wins now. You'll be shocked if they win 11 out of their remaining 67 games (a .164 win %)?

I will be surprised if they win 6 more. I will be gobsmacked if they win 11.

[Mr. Happy]

I will be surprised if they win 6 more. I will be gobsmacked if they win 11.

Call me an hopelessly incurable optimist, but I now have revised the win prediction total to somewhere between 50-55, i.e., worse than last season.

[Texifornia]

I'm not convinced that the Houston American League franchise will ever reach .500.

Imagine that by the end of 2015 the team is still losing nearly 100 games against teams like the Mariners and Blue Jays and is lucky to draw 12,000 fans. With fewer new fans coming up because of "Late Nite Baseball", Crane may start talking about the need to move the team to "someplace that wants MLB".

I don't wish for it, and I realize there are stadium lease issues and other things, but I still think the team may very well leave Houston before this decade is out.

[94CougarGrad]

Houston without a baseball team would be both a crime and a low down dirty damned shame.

[Ebby Calvin]

I'm not convinced that the Houston American League franchise will ever reach .500.

Imagine that by the end of 2015 the team is still losing nearly 100 games against teams like the Mariners and Blue Jays and is lucky to draw 12,000 fans. With fewer new fans coming up because of "Late Nite Baseball", Crane may start talking about the need to move the team to "someplace that wants MLB".

I don't wish for it, and I realize there are stadium lease issues and other things, but I still think the team may very well leave Houston before this decade is out.

Based on the current state of the farm system and the guys now running the show (Luhnow), I couldn't disagree more.  But I'm a glass-half-full guy.

[astrosfan76]

Based on the current state of the farm system and the guys now running the show (Luhnow), I couldn't disagree more.  But I'm a glass-half-full guy.

Yep, no reason to freak about the future of the club.  Plenty of future in the farm system and new revenues coming in with the tv deal.  Crane has said that they're willing to spend when it makes sense and Luhnow has already said that they plan on being active in free agency this year.  I don't expect them to build through free agency, but they can upgrade through it and, theoretically, win more games.  So, there's no reason to think that they'll be this bad in 3 years, or at least not showing significant promise.  Plus, there's the whole stadium lease that I don't think Crane wants to eat.

[jbm]

I honestly don't think it is possible to be this bad for much longer.  The team of the last month is the crappiest team of my non-blocked out memory.  Those predicting 11 more wins look like realists at this point. 

[Mr. Happy]

I'm not convinced that the Houston American League franchise will ever reach .500.

Imagine that by the end of 2015 the team is still losing nearly 100 games against teams like the Mariners and Blue Jays and is lucky to draw 12,000 fans. With fewer new fans coming up because of "Late Nite Baseball", Crane may start talking about the need to move the team to "someplace that wants MLB".

I don't wish for it, and I realize there are stadium lease issues and other things, but I still think the team may very well leave Houston before this decade is out.

Humor me, Tex. On what do you base your thought that the team would leave Houston?

[Arky Vaughan]

I'm not convinced that the Houston American League franchise will ever reach .500.

Imagine that by the end of 2015 the team is still losing nearly 100 games against teams like the Mariners and Blue Jays and is lucky to draw 12,000 fans. With fewer new fans coming up because of "Late Nite Baseball", Crane may start talking about the need to move the team to "someplace that wants MLB".

I don't wish for it, and I realize there are stadium lease issues and other things, but I still think the team may very well leave Houston before this decade is out.

"Someplace that wants MLB" is not defined by AIS, but by taxpayer subsidies. Owners generally threaten to leave town because they want new taxpayer-subsidized ballparks. Yes, part of the purpose of taxpayer-subsidized ballparks is to get AIS, but it is also to increase what an owner can charge for the AIS his team draws. When was the last time you heard talk about the Pirates, Twins or Marlins moving once their ballparks got approved and built? Until Minute Maid Park ceases to be a grade-A facility, the Astros aren't going anywhere.

[Mr. Happy]

"Someplace that wants MLB" is not defined by AIS, but by taxpayer subsidies. Owners generally threaten to leave town because they want new taxpayer-subsidized ballparks. Yes, part of the purpose of taxpayer-subsidized ballparks is to get AIS, but it is also to increase what an owner can charge for the AIS his team draws. When was the last time you heard talk about the Pirates, Twins or Marlins moving once their ballparks got approved and built? Until Minute Maid Park ceases to be a grade-A facility, the Astros aren't going anywhere.

Exactly.

[roadrunner]

Who would move a team out of Houston because the team sucks?  The fans won't be there because the team sucks.  It won't be for a lack of people (4th largest city), corporate sponsors (2nd most fortune 500 companies behind NYC), or a quality stadium.  Moving to some crapshoot market is a lot riskier than stayin put and trying to build a winner in a strong market.

[strosrays]

was discussing this last night.  What is the earliest the Astros could reasonably expect to finish a season at or above .500?

Considering the way they are going about building a team, which I fully agree with, building through the farm, not signing big$ FAs, etc... what would be your guess?  2015?

In the year 2525.

[Mr. Happy]

In the year 2525.

Zager & Evans?

[HudsonHawk]

After further review, I will be gobsmacked if this team gets to 40 wins.  Right now 37 or 38 seems more likely.

[BizidyDizidy]

After further review, I will be gobsmacked if this team gets to 40 wins.  Right now 37 or 38 seems more likely.

My dad posed a good question today - for the remainder of the season, do you think the Astros will have more wins or shutouts (receiving end).

[HudsonHawk]

My dad posed a good question today - for the remainder of the season, do you think the Astros will have more wins or shutouts (receiving end).

Oh i think the latter is a no-brainer.

[drew corleone]

I was trying to explain the trades to my gf last night and mentioned that this team may not win 15 games the rest of the way. After the kick in the balls tonight I'd be ecstatic with 5 more wins.

[Mr. Happy]

Oh i think the latter is a no-brainer.

With every game, your prediction for the remaining number of wins is looking pretty good, HH.

[Arky Vaughan]

With every game, your prediction for the remaining number of wins is looking pretty good, HH.

It's a mere matter of attrition.

[Texifornia]

Humor me, Tex. On what do you base your thought that the team would leave Houston?

Nothing specific, I had exactly the same feeling when the Oilers lost that playoff game to the Bills. I thought that it would lead to the end of the Oilers.

I agree with Luhnow's approach, but he starts from zero and I'm not sure how many consecutive 100 loss seasons will go down with the average Houston fan. Old guys like me are still pissed off about forced move to the AL and young fans won't even be awake to see road games.

Winning fixes everything, but I can't imagine this team even being competitive for the next five years no matter how well they draft.

I can imagine a team ending 2015 with it's fifth consecutive 100 loss season. I can imagine average attendance below 10,000. I can imagine Crane, with Selig's help, getting out of the stadium lease and moving the team.

It's certainly not entirely rational and I don't think that it will necessarily happen, but I can certainly imagine it. That comes from a half-century of watching Houston professional sports.

[moriartp]

This team would be no more competitive in another market, and I don't know what city is just itching to bring 30,000+ fans out for each game to support its new team. There aren't any open cities that can match Houston's capacity to support a baseball franchise. Moreover, when the team does (eventually) get good again, Houston has shown that it will pack the seats—the mob cares about nothing but winning. Moving the team would accomplish nothing.

[AtascAstro]

One has to remember that Crane isn't an independent owner, simply the largest shareholder in a very large group.  The Astros are now directed by a 13 vote board.  Crane holds 3 whole votes and has partial ownership in 1 other.  I think it would be almost impossible to get that many investors, most of whom have a connection or related business interest to this city to sign off on a move.  I think that we can safely tuck that particular fear away for the forseeable future.

Owernership

During the months that Crane was putting together his group to buy from McLane via the facilitation of Allen & Co., Crane found scores mostly within the 713 and its sister area codes willing to make that long-term investment.

[Texifornia]

This team would be no more competitive in another market, and I don't know what city is just itching to bring 30,000+ fans out for each game to support its new team. There aren't any open cities that can match Houston's capacity to support a baseball franchise. Moreover, when the team does (eventually) get good again, Houston has shown that it will pack the seats—the mob cares about nothing but winning. Moving the team would accomplish nothing.

You're probably right. I'm probably much too negative about recent events, but I am skeptical about the team's ability to maintain their fan base, particularly regionally.

[Limey]

Who needs a fan base when you have a giant ad board in left field?

Which way does it face?  In or out?

[Lefty]

You're probably right. I'm probably much too negative about recent events, but I am skeptical about the team's ability to maintain their fan base, particularly regionally.

The Astros are fucked, regionally and in the short term (10 years?), but they will never, ever leave Houston.

[Mike S.]

There's a special circle of hell reserved for bud adams and bud selig and the abortion of a lemon party they'll have in each other's arms.

[BizidyDizidy]

There's a special circle of hell reserved for bud adams and bud selig and the abortion of a lemon party they'll have in each other's arms.

Strange, I was imagine more of a dueling goatse scenario.

[Texifornia]

The Astros are fucked, regionally and in the short term (10 years?), but they will never, ever leave Houston.

Probably true, although I live on the West Coast, where some years ago many knowledgeable people stated with absolute confidence that the NFL would never abandon the LA area so I'll not say never.

[Mr. Happy]

Probably true, although I live on the West Coast, where some years ago many knowledgeable people stated with absolute confidence that the NFL would never abandon the LA area so I'll not say never.

California? I live in Napa.

[Arky Vaughan]

Nothing specific, I had exactly the same feeling when the Oilers lost that playoff game to the Bills. I thought that it would lead to the end of the Oilers.

I agree with Luhnow's approach, but he starts from zero and I'm not sure how many consecutive 100 loss seasons will go down with the average Houston fan. Old guys like me are still pissed off about forced move to the AL and young fans won't even be awake to see road games.

Winning fixes everything, but I can't imagine this team even being competitive for the next five years no matter how well they draft.

I can imagine a team ending 2015 with it's fifth consecutive 100 loss season. I can imagine average attendance below 10,000. I can imagine Crane, with Selig's help, getting out of the stadium lease and moving the team.

It's certainly not entirely rational and I don't think that it will necessarily happen, but I can certainly imagine it. That comes from a half-century of watching Houston professional sports.

Five consecutive 100-loss seasons? I think you're getting a bit ahead of yourself here. And you're still ignoring the ballpark factor, which means you're ignoring reality.

[chuck]

Five consecutive 100-loss seasons?

Two is a near certainty and three is a very real possibility. Beyond that, who knows? Over the past year the Astros seem to have upgraded their entire farm system enough to where it might be considered average (executed at quite a steep climb), but there's no way to know if potential will translate into performance. I would say five straight 100-loss seasons is considerably more likely than a single 90-win season within the next three years.

[strosrays]

Two is a near certainty and three is a very real possibility. Beyond that, who knows? Over the past year the Astros seem to have upgraded their entire farm system enough to where it might be considered average (executed at quite a steep climb), but there's no way to know if potential will translate into performance. I would say five straight 100-loss seasons is considerably more likely than a single 90-win season within the next three years.

Losing begets losing. This has been proven over and over again, especially in professional sports.

My secret fear is that the Houston organization will closely mirror what happened to the Pittsburgh team 1993-present.  How many times have we heard the Pirates are rebuilding, they've restocked their system, they are just around the corner from being contenders again? This franchise was allowed to drift the last few years of McLane's tenure. It was neglected utterly. Meanwhile every other team in both leagues worked some kind of plan to improve themselves.  Half were unsuccessful, but meanwhile the Astros just drifted aimlessly. I am satisfied with the leadership Crane, et al, have brought in, to this point ... but they are going to spend years just recovering from what McLane let happen.  They are so far behind the 8-ball, it will take years just to get the team back to where it was in 2008 or so, contending-wise.

They won't lose 100 games every year, but I can easily envision 15+ seasons of sub-.500 baseball. It would not surprise if the team does not truly contend again until 2020 or so, at the earliest.

[Texifornia]

... but they are going to spend years just recovering from what McLane let happen.  They are so far behind the 8-ball, it will take years just to get the team back to where it was in 2008 or so, contending-wise.

I distinctly remember Bud Selig saying that McLane left the team in the best condition of it's history. I think he was lying. I can't imagine the franchise recovering its regional market share from the Rangers any time in the foreseeable future. Revenues will be very weak for a market the size of Houston and the debt burden that the ownership group needs to service will require that the rebuilding come almost entirely from the farm. Luhnow has moved as fast as anyone could expect to rebuild the farm, but it may be years away from being average. When and if he achieves an excellent farm system, the major league team will then be a few years away from being competitive.

I realize the idea of the team moving cities is very unlikely, but someday some city like Charlotte may throw crazy money at Crane....

[chuck]

How many times have we heard the Pirates are rebuilding, they've restocked their system, they are just around the corner from being contenders again? This franchise was allowed to drift the last few years of McLane's tenure. It was neglected utterly.

Two things - first, the Pirates were bad for a long time because they couldn't or wouldn't keep the good players they found themselves with. Time and time again they would look up and find themselves with a player who was about to command real money and they'd move him. If the Astros begin to display this pattern then yes, we might be in for 20 years of suck. If the Astros ever find any good players and then manage to keep them around then things might be different.

Second, the organizational malaise extends well beyond the last few years. The ineptitude was defined in sharper relief but its roots reach much farther back.

[Lefty]

the Pirates were bad for a long time because they couldn't or wouldn't keep the good players they found themselves with.

They went cheap and 'signable' with top 5 picks in the draft for many years because they had no money to pay top talent. The new park changed that.

[roadrunner]

If the entire minor league system keeps winning like they are now, then you would think that has to at the very least bubble up to Houston in the next few years.  Even though Cosart and Singleton seem to be the only mid to high level prospects with star potential, I'm sure there will be some surprises in there.

It has been so long since we've seen young talent come up and consistently contribute at the major league level that I think people are forgetting that can happen.

[Reuben]

... Luhnow has moved as fast as anyone could expect to rebuild the farm, but it may be years away from being average. When and if he achieves an excellent farm system, the major league team will then be a few years away from being competitive....

If you really think this then you're not paying attention or reading the Bus Ride at all. The Astros' system was ranked #18 by Baseball America prior to this season (largely due to the Pence trade and drafting of Springer). I'd call 18th out of 30 close to average, and it likely would have ranked slightly higher if Lyles, Altuve, Paredes and Martinez had not been rushed, losing their "prospect" eligibility. After this year's draft, and the fire-sale trades, they are very likely a Top 10 system.

So the farm system as it stands right now should give everyone reason for optimism. However, I do think that optimism should be tempered somewhat because they're going to be sharing a division with the Angels, who have seemingly unlimited funds to spend on free agents, and the Rangers, who already had one of the top 2 or 3 farm systems, thanks in part to their spending like drunken sailors (in the words of Jeff Luhnow) on international players.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Losing begets losing. This has been proven over and over again, especially in professional sports.

My secret fear is that the Houston organization will closely mirror what happened to the Pittsburgh team 1993-present.  How many times have we heard the Pirates are rebuilding, they've restocked their system, they are just around the corner from being contenders again? This franchise was allowed to drift the last few years of McLane's tenure. It was neglected utterly. Meanwhile every other team in both leagues worked some kind of plan to improve themselves.  Half were unsuccessful, but meanwhile the Astros just drifted aimlessly. I am satisfied with the leadership Crane, et al, have brought in, to this point ... but they are going to spend years just recovering from what McLane let happen.  They are so far behind the 8-ball, it will take years just to get the team back to where it was in 2008 or so, contending-wise.

They won't lose 100 games every year, but I can easily envision 15+ seasons of sub-.500 baseball. It would not surprise if the team does not truly contend again until 2020 or so, at the earliest.

This is what concerns me. I keep thinking of the Royals: spending the next decade hoping that the next touted prospect will be the one to turn everything around, only for him to be Alex Gordon or Billy Butler.  Someone just good enough to be our token All-Star every year, but not a strong enough nucleus to build a team around.

My optimistic side hopes that we are going to be more like the Rays, where every year seems to bring another good-to-great prospect up to the major league level.  Combined with a willingness to spend wisely on FA's to fill the gaps in player development, our time in the wilderness could be nothing but a memory by 2016.

[MusicMan]

Let's keep in mind that the Tigers were every bit this bad in 2002-2003.  They met the Jakes in the 2006 WS.

[jbm]

This is what concerns me. I keep thinking of the Royals: spending the next decade hoping that the next touted prospect will be the one to turn everything around, only for him to be Alex Gordon or Billy Butler.  Someone just good enough to be our token All-Star every year, but not a strong enough nucleus to build a team around.

My optimistic side hopes that we are going to be more like the Rays, where every year seems to bring another good-to-great prospect up to the major league level.  Combined with a willingness to spend wisely on FA's to fill the gaps in player development, our time in the wilderness could be nothing but a memory by 2016.

Good point about the probability of success of highly touted prospects and the example of KC.  Sometimes, the rankings are just dead wrong.  Sometimes, it takes years for the player to fully bloom and you simply have to be patient.  Gordon is actually a good player now, years after his hot-shit status.  Hosmer is struggling.  If he was on this club, I imagine some people talking about how he will never develop, and they would have already stamped him a bust.   Time will tell.

Clubs have to do a lot of things right, over a long period of time.  

[Arky Vaughan]

Losing begets losing. This has been proven over and over again, especially in professional sports.

My secret fear is that the Houston organization will closely mirror what happened to the Pittsburgh team 1993-present.  How many times have we heard the Pirates are rebuilding, they've restocked their system, they are just around the corner from being contenders again? This franchise was allowed to drift the last few years of McLane's tenure. It was neglected utterly. Meanwhile every other team in both leagues worked some kind of plan to improve themselves.  Half were unsuccessful, but meanwhile the Astros just drifted aimlessly. I am satisfied with the leadership Crane, et al, have brought in, to this point ... but they are going to spend years just recovering from what McLane let happen.  They are so far behind the 8-ball, it will take years just to get the team back to where it was in 2008 or so, contending-wise.

They won't lose 100 games every year, but I can easily envision 15+ seasons of sub-.500 baseball. It would not surprise if the team does not truly contend again until 2020 or so, at the earliest.

Concerning the Pirates, I remind you of two words: Cam Bonifay. Giving big contracts to guys like Kevin Young and Pat Listach is a sign of poor management. But, again, since the Pirates got a new ballpark, you never hear about contraction or moving them anymore.

[Arky Vaughan]

I distinctly remember Bud Selig saying that McLane left the team in the best condition of it's history. I think he was lying. I can't imagine the franchise recovering its regional market share from the Rangers any time in the foreseeable future. Revenues will be very weak for a market the size of Houston and the debt burden that the ownership group needs to service will require that the rebuilding come almost entirely from the farm. Luhnow has moved as fast as anyone could expect to rebuild the farm, but it may be years away from being average. When and if he achieves an excellent farm system, the major league team will then be a few years away from being competitive.

I realize the idea of the team moving cities is very unlikely, but someday some city like Charlotte may throw crazy money at Crane....

It is difficult to imagine how Charlotte would be able to throw enough money to get the Astros to move given that Houston has a TV market about twice the size. If Houston had not built a new ballpark, that might make the difference, but Houston did build a new ballpark.

[Arky Vaughan]

Two is a near certainty and three is a very real possibility. Beyond that, who knows? Over the past year the Astros seem to have upgraded their entire farm system enough to where it might be considered average (executed at quite a steep climb), but there's no way to know if potential will translate into performance. I would say five straight 100-loss seasons is considerably more likely than a single 90-win season within the next three years.

The chances of a team having five consecutive 100-loss seasons are miniscule. That has happened only once or twice in baseball history, and only a couple of other teams have come close. I don't think the Astros are likely at all to win 90 games in 2013, 2014 or 2015, but I think the chances of that happening are many times greater than the chances of them losing 100 games five straight years.

[Navin R Johnson]

Didn't the Astros just sign a 10+ year 1 billion dollar deal with Comcast, in which they get like 75% of the revenue?  Please name another available market that would compare to that. 

If LA had built a new football stadium, then they would still have an NFL team.  Comparing the Astros to the LA NFL team is apples to oranges.