Irony is a motherfucker. Italy, its domestic leagues mired in a match-fixing scandal of record-breaking proportions, will be eliminated regardless of their own result if Spain and Croatia play to a tie of 2 or more goals each. Of course, the Italians are already bleating about a fix being in, which many suspect is more projection than perception, and I tend to agree with that. Their league has been plagued by teams - playing end of season fixtures - sharing the points with ties that help both of them and hurt someone else. The current Italian goalie got a lot of flack for defending this practice by saying "it's better that 2 are wounded than 1 killed".
Personally, as cynical as I am, I do not think the fix will be in today. However, as the match develops, if both teams find themselves with 2 goals apiece, I thoroughly expect both teams to shut the game down and let the clock run out.
But...
1) The Bookie fraternity doesn't miss many wrinkles, and they have slashed the odds of Spain and Croatia playing to a 2-2 tie to 4-1. By comparison, the odds for a France - Sweden 2-2 tie on Tuesday is 16-1.
2) It's not like teams haven't collaborated on a mutually-beneficial result before. Most famously between
Germany and Austria in the 1982 World Cup, which prompted a rule change so that the final round of group games have simultaneous kick-offs. More recently, in Euro 2004, Denmark and Sweden
played to a 2-2 tie, which confirmed both teams progressed to the knockout round, and causing the elimination of...Italy!
In this case, it would be 2 teams wounded
and 1 (other) team killed.
