Rule 5 Draft

[OregonStrosFan]

As in Arabic numeral "5", not Roman numeral V, draft is almost upon us.  Any predictions as to who the Astros will take?!? 

Per Footer: "David Gottfried and Bobby Heck will run things for Astros at Rule 5 as originally planned."

[roadrunner]

I've heard a reliever, but Josh Horton (SS) out of the A's system would make sense to me.

[Ron Brand]

I saw something about them looking for a 'lottery ticket' kind of guy, like Jiwan James.

[astrosfan76]

One of the reporters (McTaggart?) mentioned that they might trade the top pick and pick someone like James a little later. Either way, they expected the club to take two players in the MLB portion.

[jbm]

Are these picks actually that valuable, I mean enough to trade?  I mean, how many of these guys actually stick on their drafting club for a full year?

btw, in the regular draft, can picks be traded under the new agreement?  Maybe Crane can trade the first pick for some money to reduce his debt.

[Ebby Calvin]

From BA:

However, the James speculation seemed to stop when word leaked that the Astros had hired Cardinals scouting director Jeff Luhnow as their new general manager. Luhnow had success with St. Louis' drafts, but he made his name with the Cardinals drafting more polished, role players—along the lines of World Series heroes Allen Craig or Lance Lynn—rather than high-risk, high-reward players such as James. It remains to be seen if the Luhnow hire would affect Houston's Rule 5 pick—for example, would the Astros pick a Cardinals player, such as righthander Francisco Samuel?—and Astros officials weren't commenting Thursday night.

[jbm]

I sort of worry about that philosophy.  Polished, role players are great when you can stick them on a roster with Pujols.  When you can't, no one knows who the fuck they are, and they aren't valuable at all.  Drafting is about getting superstars; role players can be obtained elsewhere.

[astrosfan76]

Are these picks actually that valuable, I mean enough to trade?  I mean, how many of these guys actually stick on their drafting club for a full year?

btw, in the regular draft, can picks be traded under the new agreement?  Maybe Crane can trade the first pick for some money to reduce his debt.

I doubt they would get much in a trade, maybe a little cash.  

Under the new CBA, regular picks can't be traded, but teams that win one of the supplemental picks through the lottery system can trade those picks.  I don't remember the details, but if, say, the Pirates (or one of the other teams deemed a small-market) won one of the 6 extra picks, they could use that pick as part of a trade package in the offseason.  It's not going to give a team like the Yankees a crack at someone like Appel, but it could give them an extra supplemental pick, which would have some value.

[astrosfan76]

#Astros take RHP Rhiner Cruz. Strong-armed guy, gets FB to upper 90s, not a lot of success.

[Ebby Calvin]

In Minor League Rule 5, Houston took pitcher Marco Duarte from Rox AA roster

[moriartp]

In Minor League Rule 5, Houston took pitcher Marco Duarte from Rox AA roster

And evidently traded him for SS Marwin Gonzalez.

[jwhudson]

If you trade a Rule 5 draft pick do you have to keep that player on the roster all season?

[OregonStrosFan]

If you trade a Rule 5 draft pick do you have to keep that player on the roster all season?

The team that trades for him does.

[MusicMan]

And evidently traded him for SS Marwin Gonzalez.

BP on Gonzalez:

20. Marwin Gonzalez, INF: He’s certainly not an upside guy, but he could arrive as early as this year in a utility spot.

Note - that's #20 in the Cubs' system.

[Uncle Charlie]

#Astros take RHP Rhiner Cruz. Strong-armed guy, gets FB to upper 90s, not a lot of success.

I know nothing about Cruz, or the guy taken after him, Terry Doyle, but just looking at the numbers its hard to see why it was Cruz over Doyle:

Cruz (AA, 24 yo):  4.14 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 36G, 58.2 IP, 51 SO, 39 BB, 4 HR
Doyle (AA, 25 yo): 3.24 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 15GS, 100.0 IP, 73 SO, 22 BB, 8 HR

Clearly there is a year difference and Cruz misses more bats, but performance last year in AA was clearly in favor of Doyle.  While Cruz had better number in lower levels, Doyle has been better and is a starter.  I guess it's the FB?

[MusicMan]

Doyle is one of those guys with no apparent tools, just results.  Cruz appears to be the opposite.

[Jacksonian]

I know nothing about Cruz, or the guy taken after him, Terry Doyle, but just looking at the numbers its hard to see why it was Cruz over Doyle:

Cruz (AA, 24 yo):  4.14 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 36G, 58.2 IP, 51 SO, 39 BB, 4 HR
Doyle (AA, 25 yo): 3.24 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 15GS, 100.0 IP, 73 SO, 22 BB, 8 HR

Clearly there is a year difference and Cruz misses more bats, but performance last year in AA was clearly in favor of Doyle.  While Cruz had better number in lower levels, Doyle has been better and is a starter.  I guess it's the FB?

Doyle has nothing special.  Control pitcher that is more likely a AAAA pitcher.  Cruz, if he can find some measure of control, can be a later inning bullpen arm with that fastball.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Looking at stat lines, Marwin Gonzalez does not hit for much power, doesn't walk, and doesn't strike out that much.  Typical 7-hole hitter?  Apparently his glove is solid.

Does anyone know more about him?

[Reuben]

Looking at stat lines, Marwin Gonzalez does not hit for much power, doesn't walk, and doesn't strike out that much.  Typical 7-hole hitter?  Apparently his glove is solid.

Does anyone know more about him?

Solid glove and not being overmatched at the plate in AA/AAA probably give him the edge over his current competition. I still wouldn't be surprised if they sign a leftover good-glove, cheap SS in Jan or Feb.

[geezerdonk]

Possibwy he could be twaded to the Miami Marwins.

[jaklewein]

I sort of worry about that philosophy.  Polished, role players are great when you can stick them on a roster with Pujols.  When you can't, no one knows who the fuck they are, and they aren't valuable at all.  Drafting is about getting superstars; role players can be obtained elsewhere.

What do you mean by, "no one knows who they are"?  Are you saying players are evaluated differently by GMs, scouts, etc. if they play on a good team?

I assume the goal is to acquire as much talent as possible.  High upside guys are great but I would have to assume the odds that they pan out are low in terms of Rule V eligible players.  Remember that polished role players at the MLB level can later be traded too, and hopefully for prospects with higher ceilings.  I would think a switch hitting SS that hits for a reasonable average and plays better than average defense might qualify in that regard.  This is merely speculation on my part.  For those with more knowledge, am I completely out to lunch?

[jbm]

The conversation was within a Rule 5 thread, but about his drafting philosophy in the Rule 4 draft.  Rule 5 is pretty irrelevant.  Sure, Santana, and probably some others have been part of it, but for the most part, it seems like minor ado about nothing.

I don't know if they asked him about his drafting philosophy in the press conference, but it would be interesting.  Someone should also ask just what are "advanced metrics" and how do they get used in either player selection or player development.  Seriously, what the fuck are these tools people allude to.  I understand the moneyball and OBP thing, but am having troubling coming up with other examples.

 

[VirtualBob]

I know nothing about Cruz, or the guy taken after him, Terry Doyle, but just looking at the numbers its hard to see why it was Cruz over Doyle:

Cruz (AA, 24 yo):  4.14 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 36G, 58.2 IP, 51 SO, 39 BB, 4 HR
Doyle (AA, 25 yo): 3.24 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 15GS, 100.0 IP, 73 SO, 22 BB, 8 HR

Clearly there is a year difference and Cruz misses more bats, but performance last year in AA was clearly in favor of Doyle.  While Cruz had better number in lower levels, Doyle has been better and is a starter.  I guess it's the FB?

Maybe someone actually saw them pitch instead of just reading a statbook?  I know that is a radical notion to some, but juneberno.

[astrosfan76]

Maybe someone actually saw them pitch instead of just reading a statbook?  I know that is a radical notion to some, but juneberno.

His Winter Ball manager is in our organization and we had a couple of other scouts check him out.

[VirtualBob]

His Winter Ball manager is in our organization and we had a couple of other scouts check him out.

Will wonders never cease.  Scouts! Who'd a thunk it?

[Reuben]

The only thing that's a little bit of a head-scratcher to me with the Cruz pick, is I thought this team already had an overflowing bucket full of young, unproven but decent-upside RH throwers to compete for the bullpen. I assume the guys pretty much guaranteed jobs are:

Melancon
Lyon
W. Lopez
Escalona
W. Wright

then for the other two slots, you have Fe-Rod and Carpenter who showed some value and toughness in sticky situations, so I'd think they would be close to locks for the 'pen as well. (Aneury I assume will start at OKC?)

Which tells me they must see Cruz as a possible future lock-down closer, to go to the trouble of picking him 1st (when they have many needs at the ML level) and trying to fit him in the 'pen for a full season. If he's a Valverde in the making then its a great pick.

[pots]

The only thing that's a little bit of a head-scratcher to me with the Cruz pick, is I thought this team already had an overflowing bucket full of young, unproven but decent-upside RH throwers to compete for the bullpen. I assume the guys pretty much guaranteed jobs are:

Melancon
Lyon
W. Lopez
Escalona
W. Wright

then for the other two slots, you have Fe-Rod and Carpenter who showed some value and toughness in sticky situations, so I'd think they would be close to locks for the 'pen as well. (Aneury I assume will start at OKC?)

Which tells me they must see Cruz as a possible future lock-down closer, to go to the trouble of picking him 1st (when they have many needs at the ML level) and trying to fit him in the 'pen for a full season. If he's a Valverde in the making then its a great pick.

Makes sense to me for two reasons.  One, you can never have enough arms that can throw in the upper 90s.  And two, for a team that is not expected to compete, you can easily keep a guy in the bullpen for the entire year wothout hurting his development too much (there should be plenty of games for him to get some innings in).  You can't just stick a position player on the bench for a year because he won't develop there.

[Uncle Charlie]

Maybe someone actually saw them pitch instead of just reading a statbook?  I know that is a radical notion to some, but juneberno.

It was asked, in part, to see if someone knew more than what I could see on a computer.  That was pretty clear in the first sentence when I stated I knew nothing of either pitcher.  However, the statement you make is a silly one.  The 2nd pick (Doyle) in the Rule 5 draft surely was scouted by several teams.  The Astros preferred Cruz and I was asking why - suggesting it might be the fastball - thinking that someone MAY have more intel than I could get in a cursory search of the players.