Author Topic: So close....  (Read 17987 times)

das

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So close....
« on: September 03, 2011, 08:16:42 pm »
I really feel for you guys.  It must be tough seeing the massive rain shield of TS Lee pirouetting just off to the east.  This is a tough loop to watch (time sensitive):
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gen_nids.cgi?ident=hgx&pl=n0r&yy=2011&mm=&dd=&hh=&nn=Min&size=1280x960&loop=yes2&zoom=&center=
Typically, the rain shield for landfalling tropical storms constrict during the night as the diurnal minimum deepening takes place but, so far, there is no evidence of that as the rain line has moved west a good 40 miles in the last  hour.  I hope it continues for you guys.

(http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/HGX.N0R.1109040059.1280x960.none..348.gif)
« Last Edit: September 03, 2011, 08:20:35 pm by das »
Another trenchant comment by a jealous lesser intellect.

Bench

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Re: So close....
« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2011, 08:27:19 pm »
But golly, watching the clouds is sure fun.
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JaneDoe

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Re: So close....
« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2011, 11:42:18 pm »
diurnal minimum deepening

Now there's a good band name...
"My hammy is a little tight. I wish I was like Ausmus. He's Jewish and isn't allowed to have a pulled hamstring."

strosrays

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Re: So close....
« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2011, 01:00:40 am »
It's been raining light-to-moderate here for the last 14 hours.  And it is supposed to all day tomorrow.  No complaints.

austro

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Re: So close....
« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2011, 10:08:32 am »
It's been raining light-to-moderate here for the last 14 hours.  And it is supposed to all day tomorrow.  No complaints.

Am I off your shit list now?
I remember all the good times me 'n Miller enjoyed
Up and down the M1 in some luminous yo-yo toy
But the future has to change - and to change I've got to destroy
Oh look out Lennon here I come - land ahoy-hoy-hoy

strosrays

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Re: So close....
« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2011, 03:38:47 pm »
Am I off your shit list now?

You were never on it, except in a general sense.  You weren't the only one of your neighbors wishing for a hurricane in a blasé way, it seemed to me.  Just so you could get your lawn and trees watered.  If you've ever been through a direct hit, or two within three years, you understand why I might get touchy about that.

It'd sorta be like me wishing for snow in the winter, knowing you'd have to go through an ice storm and tree limbs on your house and downed power lines and no electricity for two weeks.  Just so I can have some snow.

As for rain, we are in a drought, too.  The edges of my yard are starting to turn brownish; though, like ETA, I water the trees and slab pretty regularly.  The last I heard, we are close to 40" behind over the last two years.  No way to make that up, unless its the coming of the second deluge or something.  Anyway, a hurricane coming through and dumping 10-15 inches of rain in a day is not what you or I need.  We need the hiigh pressure thing or whatever it is keeping the moisture from the gulf at bay to move, so we can get back to scattered T-storms every afternoon, like it is supposed to be around here in the summer. 

Also, I am supposed to get rain when you don't.  You live in a semi-arid climate.  I'm in a sub-tropical zone.  We normally get 50-60 inches a year.  You get half that.  In a normal year.  Or what used to be a normal year.  I'm not sure what is "normal" anymore.

At any rate, if I was really mad at you, I would threaten you with something more terrifying than force-feeding you Swedish meatballs.

Lurch

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Re: So close....
« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2011, 03:42:44 pm »
Just so you could get your lawn and trees watered.

Yes.  That's all it is.
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jbm

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Re: So close....
« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2011, 04:00:29 pm »
It's not only fires, it's livelihoods for farmers and ranchers. In the coming months and years if it continues, it may well effect all "non-essential" things like firefighting and bathing in some areas.   

austro

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Re: So close....
« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2011, 04:03:29 pm »
Yes.  That's all it is.

You know you're in a patch of bad luck when a tropical storm increases your fire risk.
I remember all the good times me 'n Miller enjoyed
Up and down the M1 in some luminous yo-yo toy
But the future has to change - and to change I've got to destroy
Oh look out Lennon here I come - land ahoy-hoy-hoy

BizidyDizidy

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Re: So close....
« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2011, 04:09:44 pm »
I burned down my backyard grilling the other day - any advice on dealing with burnt grass?
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Lurch

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Re: So close....
« Reply #10 on: September 04, 2011, 04:16:26 pm »
I wish the first word I had said when I was born was 'quote'. Then before I die, I could say, 'unquote.' --Steven Wright

Lurch

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Re: So close....
« Reply #11 on: September 04, 2011, 04:16:56 pm »
I burned down my backyard grilling the other day - any advice on dealing with burnt grass?

It'll come up crazy green next year. 
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BizidyDizidy

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Re: So close....
« Reply #12 on: September 04, 2011, 04:18:18 pm »
Hopefully by the time my lease is up
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austro

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Re: So close....
« Reply #13 on: September 04, 2011, 04:20:37 pm »
Bastrop

The tv crawl is telling people and Colovista and Tahitian Village (Pine Forest GC, essentially) to get the hell out of Dodge.
I remember all the good times me 'n Miller enjoyed
Up and down the M1 in some luminous yo-yo toy
But the future has to change - and to change I've got to destroy
Oh look out Lennon here I come - land ahoy-hoy-hoy

Lurch

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Re: So close....
« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2011, 04:22:17 pm »
The tv crawl is telling people and Colovista and Tahitian Village (Pine Forest GC, essentially) to get the hell out of Dodge.

So thick it's showing up on radar
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Bench

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Re: So close....
« Reply #15 on: September 04, 2011, 06:27:26 pm »
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

Mr. Happy

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Re: So close....
« Reply #16 on: September 04, 2011, 07:12:26 pm »
I burned down my backyard grilling the other day - any advice on dealing with burnt grass?

Biz: How in the fuck did you manage to do that? Were drinks involved?
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BizidyDizidy

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Re: So close....
« Reply #17 on: September 04, 2011, 07:16:05 pm »
Just dry gas and embers - happened while the fire was dying out after I was done, so I didn't see it. Wife took Charles to look out the window, starts yelling that the backyard is on fire. Luckily it was just a patch of dry/dead grass in the middle of the yard, so it pretty much just burned itself out before it got to the house or fence.

Stupid dogs of course love rolling in the ash and tracking it all around the house.
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BizidyDizidy

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Re: So close....
« Reply #18 on: September 04, 2011, 07:19:55 pm »
Dry grass, not dry gas.
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Mr. Happy

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Re: So close....
« Reply #19 on: September 04, 2011, 08:44:11 pm »
Dry grass, not dry gas.

I knew what you meant. Your Cardinal sure rolled on saturday. I'm hoping that you all have a great season.
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BizidyDizidy

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Re: So close....
« Reply #20 on: September 04, 2011, 08:45:12 pm »
I knew what you meant. Your Cardinal sure rolled on saturday. I'm hoping that you all have a great season.

I was at the game watching the tigers curbstomp the ducks - not a bad spot Jerry has built himself out in Arlington but it's a fucking nightmare to get out of there afterwards.
"My doctor told me to stop having intimate dinners for four. Unless there are three other people."
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Mr. Happy

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Re: So close....
« Reply #21 on: September 04, 2011, 08:54:29 pm »
I was at the game watching the tigers curbstomp the ducks - not a bad spot Jerry has built himself out in Arlington but it's a fucking nightmare to get out of there afterwards.

I missed the game. I had to cover an NA meeting for a friend who is attending the NA World Convention in San Diego. I kept up with the game on my Blackberry. It appears that Oregon did a sparkling job of beating themselves. However, given all of the recent controversy surrounding the Tigers coming into the game and the loss of some impact players, I am ecstatic about the win over such a highly ranked team.
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Waldo

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Re: So close....
« Reply #22 on: September 04, 2011, 10:12:42 pm »
Bastrop

All of Steiner Ranch (NW of Austin) has been evacuated too.  Crazy.

Lurch

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Re: So close....
« Reply #23 on: September 04, 2011, 10:17:12 pm »
All of Steiner Ranch (NW of Austin) has been evacuated too.  Crazy.

25 homes gone already.
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Lurch

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Re: So close....
« Reply #24 on: September 04, 2011, 10:36:14 pm »
Fuck!  300 homes gone in Bastrop and they are saying the fire is 0% contained.  14,000 acres burned so far
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JaneDoe

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Re: So close....
« Reply #25 on: September 04, 2011, 10:57:21 pm »
"My hammy is a little tight. I wish I was like Ausmus. He's Jewish and isn't allowed to have a pulled hamstring."

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Re: So close....
« Reply #26 on: September 05, 2011, 07:30:29 am »
The morning roundup:

- Steiner Ranch fire was 5-10% contained as of 12:30am.  40 homes burned.
- Bastrop fire is 16 miles long, six miles wide.  Hundreds of homes and half of Bastrop State Park has burned.
- Today's forecast: 20-30mph winds with higher gusts and 30% humidity.  Going to be a long day for firefighters.

But yeah, we just need rain so our grass is green.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2011, 07:35:38 am by Waldo »

Phil_in_CS

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Re: So close....
« Reply #27 on: September 05, 2011, 10:18:43 am »
Fuck!  300 homes gone in Bastrop and they are saying the fire is 0% contained.  14,000 acres burned so far

Including half the acregae at Bastrop State Park. I know some folks that are evaced, and have no word on what's going on. One had to leave so quick she couldn't catch her cat, and ended up driving through flames to get out.

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Re: So close....
« Reply #28 on: September 05, 2011, 10:27:00 am »
Some friends of ours just recently sold their house in Bastrop; they found out this morning that it's gone.  Sucks for the new owners.

Someone else I know lives down there and hasn't heard anything official yet, but several of her neighbors have lost their houses so it doesn't look good.

The fire in Bastrop is 1/3 the size of the city of Austin.  Chew on that for a while.

Ron Brand

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Re: So close....
« Reply #29 on: September 05, 2011, 10:49:57 am »
The fire in Bastrop is 1/3 the size of the city of Austin.  Chew on that for a while.

Last I saw it was 6 miles by 16 miles in size.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2011, 10:52:11 am by Ron Brand »
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BudGirl

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Re: So close....
« Reply #30 on: September 05, 2011, 11:26:12 am »
I don't think it is fair to make it seem like strosrays didn't want it to rain in drought areas.  He didn't want to have to deal with a hurricane, which I totally understand.  I also understand how dangerous the drought makes things.  I grew up in San Antonio.

I totally understand both sides.  The tropical storms can bring a lot of rain to an area once it lands, granted there is no guarantee which way it will go and give the rain.  The tropical storms can also bring a lot of damage because of winds, rains, etc.

Natural disasters suck.  The whole state of Texas needs rain and a lot of it.
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jbm

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Re: So close....
« Reply #31 on: September 05, 2011, 11:40:48 am »
I agree. I completely understood his sentiment, and it hard to understand just how freaking dry is in some parts.

Col. Sphinx Drummond

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Re: So close....
« Reply #32 on: September 05, 2011, 12:15:20 pm »
I've spent some time in Bastrop and Lost Pines State Parks, as well as visited friends who live in Tahitian Village. Those places are a tinderbox under these conditions. Awful devastation.
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94CougarGrad

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Re: So close....
« Reply #33 on: September 05, 2011, 12:34:18 pm »
Last week, the fire at Possum Kingdom Lake, west of Ft Worth, was so bad that it jumped the lake and kept going. Don't remember how many houses and such are gone, sounds like Bastrop is worse.

A couple of the firefighters at Possum Kingdom lost their houses to the fire and kept on fighting so their neighbors wouldn't lose their homes.
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Waldo

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Re: So close....
« Reply #34 on: September 05, 2011, 01:11:03 pm »
Last I saw it was 6 miles by 16 miles in size.

96 square miles.  Austin is 271.8 square miles.

Waldo

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Re: So close....
« Reply #35 on: September 05, 2011, 01:44:35 pm »
I don't think it is fair to make it seem like strosrays didn't want it to rain in drought areas.  He didn't want to have to deal with a hurricane, which I totally understand.  I also understand how dangerous the drought makes things.  I grew up in San Antonio.

I totally understand both sides.  The tropical storms can bring a lot of rain to an area once it lands, granted there is no guarantee which way it will go and give the rain.  The tropical storms can also bring a lot of damage because of winds, rains, etc.

Natural disasters suck.  The whole state of Texas needs rain and a lot of it.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

Just read that Williamson County has banned all outdoor smoking, burning, and open-flame grilling under threat of fines and/or jail time.

Phil_in_CS

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Re: So close....
« Reply #36 on: September 05, 2011, 04:34:43 pm »
http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/blotter/entries/2011/09/05/wildfire_updates.html

25,000 acres and 476 homes, and still spreading. Bastrop County just increased the evacuation area again.

Here's the Bastrop County EMS Feed if you do FB https://www.facebook.com/pages/Bastrop-County-Office-of-Emergency-Management/193202960708177

das

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Re: So close....
« Reply #37 on: September 05, 2011, 05:29:15 pm »
Natural disasters suck.  The whole state of Texas needs rain and a lot of it.

It's coming.  Not anytime soon though.  This winter will be a bit rainier than last for you guys but that's not saying much.  Winter of 2013 and maybe a bit before will be the big change.
Another trenchant comment by a jealous lesser intellect.

Lurch

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Re: So close....
« Reply #38 on: September 05, 2011, 05:49:19 pm »
Yes.  That's all it is.

The first link was a fire about a mile from our house last week.  These poor people just had another pop up right next to them within the last hour.  Huge billows of smoke out our back window, but it's a little down wind from us so we're in good shape, but I'm afraid they're in a lot of trouble.  Our fire department was all in Steiner.

As of about an hour ago, it is now an arrestable offence to smoke cigarettete outside.
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Re: So close....
« Reply #39 on: September 05, 2011, 06:01:51 pm »
Can you get any pics?

Lurch

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Re: So close....
« Reply #40 on: September 05, 2011, 06:37:48 pm »
Not too dramatic here but the smell is very strong

I wish the first word I had said when I was born was 'quote'. Then before I die, I could say, 'unquote.' --Steven Wright

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Re: So close....
« Reply #41 on: September 05, 2011, 06:45:21 pm »
Not too dramatic here but the smell is very strong

What, behind the rabbit?

austro

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Re: So close....
« Reply #42 on: September 05, 2011, 07:43:03 pm »
As of about an hour ago, it is now an arrestable offence to smoke cigarettete outside.

I've always wanted to get my car fitted with Sidewinders, but never more than when I see stupid fuckers flip their butts out the car window.
I remember all the good times me 'n Miller enjoyed
Up and down the M1 in some luminous yo-yo toy
But the future has to change - and to change I've got to destroy
Oh look out Lennon here I come - land ahoy-hoy-hoy

remy

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Re: So close....
« Reply #43 on: September 05, 2011, 08:33:23 pm »
Not too dramatic here but the smell is very strong

Even down here in Circle C the smell is pretty strong, surprisingly.  Then again, I've smelled smoke here from fires in Mexico and FL in years past... so I guess it's not too shocking.

Bench

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Re: So close....
« Reply #44 on: September 07, 2011, 01:54:27 pm »
The Houston Press with its finger always on the pulse of the community.
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

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Re: So close....
« Reply #45 on: September 07, 2011, 01:57:17 pm »
I love the poll question.

Would you be willing to weather a direct hit from a tropical storm in order to end the historic Texas drought?
 Yes
 No
 It's in the hands of Rick Perry and God


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Re: So close....
« Reply #46 on: September 07, 2011, 04:30:06 pm »
As of about an hour ago, it is now an arrestable offence to smoke cigarettete outside.
... and given that it is already an arrestable offense to smoke in a public building, I see a wave of sick days coming.
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Re: So close....
« Reply #47 on: September 07, 2011, 04:35:53 pm »
I love the poll question.

Would you be willing to weather a direct hit from a tropical storm in order to end the historic Texas drought?
 Yes
 No
 It's in the hands of Rick Perry and God das




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Re: So close....
« Reply #48 on: September 07, 2011, 04:37:46 pm »
As of about an hour ago, it is now an arrestable offence to smoke cigarettete outside.

Outside where?  Like, on 6th St?  On any sidewalk?  On your porch? 
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

jbm

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Re: So close....
« Reply #49 on: September 07, 2011, 04:40:01 pm »
Just Williamson County.  Indoor porches and sidewalks are hunky dory. 

jbm

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Re: So close....
« Reply #50 on: September 07, 2011, 04:57:41 pm »
Just saw that there is a new one.  Nate.  Hopefully, the Zetas will scare Nate north of the border.   

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201115_5day.html

loganck

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Re: So close....
« Reply #51 on: September 07, 2011, 08:24:59 pm »
Winter of 2013 and maybe a bit before will be the big change.

Is this serious?  You weathernerds (I mean that in the nicest way possible) can predict rain years from now?

austro

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Re: So close....
« Reply #52 on: September 07, 2011, 08:36:25 pm »
Is this serious?  You weathernerds (I mean that in the nicest way possible) can predict rain years from now?

I'm no weathernerd, but the long-range forecasts I've seen seem to think 2012 will be like 2011.
I remember all the good times me 'n Miller enjoyed
Up and down the M1 in some luminous yo-yo toy
But the future has to change - and to change I've got to destroy
Oh look out Lennon here I come - land ahoy-hoy-hoy

HudsonHawk

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Re: So close....
« Reply #53 on: September 08, 2011, 06:18:21 am »
Is this serious?  You weathernerds (I mean that in the nicest way possible) can predict rain years from now?

Yep.  Satellites, computer models, sophisticated instruments...long range weather patterns are well within the realm of atmospheric science these days.  It's no longer as simple as looking outside to see if the grass is wet.
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das

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Re: So close....
« Reply #54 on: September 08, 2011, 01:29:44 pm »
Is this serious?  You weathernerds (I mean that in the nicest way possible) can predict rain years from now?
We're getting better at it.  The drought currently underway in Texas was not a surprise to anyone (that pays attention to this stuff, anyways...).  Nor were the big snows in the Northeast last winter, the Mid-Atlantic the year before or the very active tropical season so far.

Do a quick interweb search of ENSO or other periodic oscillations like the QBO for info.  Here's a good place to start:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/

Couple that with emerging space weather research and studies on solar output cycles and you start to get a good sense of basic trends in the global weather cycle.  Not a great sense with hyper-granularity but a good sense.
Another trenchant comment by a jealous lesser intellect.

das

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Re: So close....
« Reply #55 on: September 08, 2011, 01:39:26 pm »
I'm no weathernerd, but the long-range forecasts I've seen seem to think 2012 will be like 2011.

Yup.  upcoming winter will be very similar to last year.  Maaaaaybe just a skootch wetter in Texas but not much.  Biggest snows will be in California, the upper midwest and far Northeast.  Southeast will be warmish again with more rain the farther you go north and the mid-Atlantic wil again be the battleground between warm and cold with the warm usually winning.  Next year, it look like we go back to El Niño (getting away from this wretched La Niña) and get an active southern jet stream bringing pacific and gulf moisture to you in Texas and good cold and moisture up the atlantic seaboard.  Will suck for the west coast though.
Another trenchant comment by a jealous lesser intellect.

strosrays

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Re: So close....
« Reply #56 on: September 08, 2011, 03:50:53 pm »
Yup.  upcoming winter will be very similar to last year.  Maaaaaybe just a skootch wetter in Texas but not much.  Biggest snows will be in California, the upper midwest and far Northeast.  Southeast will be warmish again with more rain the farther you go north and the mid-Atlantic wil again be the battleground between warm and cold with the warm usually winning.  Next year, it look like we go back to El Niño (getting away from this wretched La Niña) and get an active southern jet stream bringing pacific and gulf moisture to you in Texas and good cold and moisture up the atlantic seaboard.  Will suck for the west coast though.

So all this shit is just a natural cycle?  WTF?  I thought my bong BBQ pit was causing it

Lurch

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Re: So close....
« Reply #57 on: September 08, 2011, 03:57:20 pm »
I wish the first word I had said when I was born was 'quote'. Then before I die, I could say, 'unquote.' --Steven Wright

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Re: So close....
« Reply #58 on: September 08, 2011, 04:01:08 pm »
My money, if I had any, would be on das.
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Re: So close....
« Reply #59 on: September 08, 2011, 04:06:49 pm »
Sci-guy says La Nina is back.

Geek-fight?

I believe they're saying the same thing. I think that when das says this

Quote
Next year, it look like we go back to El Niño (getting away from this wretched La Niña) and get an active southern jet stream bringing pacific and gulf moisture to you in Texas and good cold and moisture up the atlantic seaboard.

he's talking about 2013 for "next year" (i.e., the winter after the upcoming winter).
I remember all the good times me 'n Miller enjoyed
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Lurch

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Re: So close....
« Reply #60 on: September 08, 2011, 04:09:57 pm »
I believe they're saying the same thing. I think that when das says this

he's talking about 2013 for "next year" (i.e., the winter after the upcoming winter).

Ah, yes.  My bad.  I thought I was going to have to call one of them Galileo
I wish the first word I had said when I was born was 'quote'. Then before I die, I could say, 'unquote.' --Steven Wright

das

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Re: So close....
« Reply #61 on: September 12, 2011, 11:22:26 am »
Ah, yes.  My bad.  I thought I was going to have to call one of them Galileo
Yup, we were (are) saying the same thing.  Here is the latest forcast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.  It's fugly for you guys in Texas.  That's a technical term, btw.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
Another trenchant comment by a jealous lesser intellect.

das

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Re: So close....
« Reply #62 on: September 12, 2011, 11:24:13 am »
So all this shit is just a natural cycle?  WTF?  I thought my bong BBQ pit was causing it
That's what you get for listening to Al Gore...
Another trenchant comment by a jealous lesser intellect.

Lurch

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Re: So close....
« Reply #63 on: September 12, 2011, 11:32:20 am »
Yup, we were (are) saying the same thing.  Here is the latest forcast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.  It's fugly for you guys in Texas.  That's a technical term, btw.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf


You have the English version of this for us?
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Re: So close....
« Reply #64 on: September 12, 2011, 11:35:26 am »
You have the English version of this for us?

The hot and dry ain't going away any time soon.
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Re: So close....
« Reply #65 on: September 12, 2011, 11:35:49 am »
You have the English version of this for us?

Hot and dry, no rain in sight.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: So close....
« Reply #66 on: September 12, 2011, 11:36:22 am »
The hot and dry ain't going away any time soon.

Like a year.  Or so.  Comeonwinterdecember2012.

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Re: So close....
« Reply #67 on: September 12, 2011, 11:38:06 am »
You have the English version of this for us? English, motherfucker!  Do you speak it?!

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Re: So close....
« Reply #68 on: September 27, 2011, 04:43:26 pm »
"Dry Lightning" is a new one to me
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das

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Re: So close....
« Reply #69 on: September 27, 2011, 07:25:29 pm »
"Dry Lightning" is a new one to me
You usually see it in super arid places like the desert southwest or up in dry western mountains like the Sierra Nevada. Dry lightening strikes are the largest producer of wildfires. It happens when the air is so dry in the lower levels that rain from a thunderstorm evaporates on it's way down before it hits the ground but the storm cell still produces cloud-to-ground lightening. You guys need some rain, bad.
Another trenchant comment by a jealous lesser intellect.

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Re: So close....
« Reply #70 on: September 27, 2011, 07:26:57 pm »
You guys need some rain, bad.

Understatement of the decade.
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Re: So close....
« Reply #71 on: September 27, 2011, 07:39:26 pm »
You guys need some rain, bad.

There actually is some in the area today. Probably not much, but better than nothing. Naturally, my house was on the edge of the most promising cell, and we got next to nothing.
I remember all the good times me 'n Miller enjoyed
Up and down the M1 in some luminous yo-yo toy
But the future has to change - and to change I've got to destroy
Oh look out Lennon here I come - land ahoy-hoy-hoy

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Re: So close....
« Reply #72 on: September 27, 2011, 08:04:48 pm »
There actually is some in the area today. Probably not much, but better than nothing. Naturally, my house was on the edge of the most promising cell, and we got next to nothing.

You must live near me.  Lots of wind and lightning but nothing more than a few drops.  I've got thunderstorm blueballs.

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Re: So close....
« Reply #73 on: September 27, 2011, 08:13:01 pm »
thunderstorm blueballs

I think I saw them at Emo's about ten years ago.
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Re: So close....
« Reply #74 on: September 27, 2011, 08:21:38 pm »
Quote from: das link=topic=113367.msg401074#msg401074
It happens when the air is so dry in the lower levels that rain from a thunderstorm evaporates on it's way down before it hits the ground

You could see this on the horizon... Really wild looking.
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Re: So close....
« Reply #75 on: September 28, 2011, 10:35:51 am »
Got some out of it.  FYI austro, the river has/had stopped flowing completely above Nichols Landing and the 281 bridge both just recently.  It disappeared on 311 and Rebecca Creek crossing months ago.  Worst since the 50's.

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Re: So close....
« Reply #76 on: September 28, 2011, 10:36:35 am »
Got some out of it.  FYI austro, the river has/had stopped flowing completely above Nichols Landing and the 281 bridge both just recently.  It disappeared on 311 and Rebecca Creek crossing months ago.  Worst since the 50's.

My parents say the same thing about the drought of the 50's.
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austro

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Re: So close....
« Reply #77 on: September 28, 2011, 11:25:35 am »
Got some out of it.  FYI austro, the river has/had stopped flowing completely above Nichols Landing and the 281 bridge both just recently.  It disappeared on 311 and Rebecca Creek crossing months ago.  Worst since the 50's.

Yeah, I noticed that the gauges for 311 and Honey Creek both started saying "dry" in late July or early August. They didn't even bother with the 0.0 cfs teaser.
I remember all the good times me 'n Miller enjoyed
Up and down the M1 in some luminous yo-yo toy
But the future has to change - and to change I've got to destroy
Oh look out Lennon here I come - land ahoy-hoy-hoy

das

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Re: So close....
« Reply #78 on: September 28, 2011, 03:25:33 pm »
You could see this on the horizon... Really wild looking.
Here's a good pic:
http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/SkyPix/ftsumner.jpg
Another trenchant comment by a jealous lesser intellect.

Lurch

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Re: So close....
« Reply #79 on: September 28, 2011, 03:45:00 pm »
Here's a good pic:
http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/SkyPix/ftsumner.jpg

Thats it!  What was really interesting to see, too, was that the lightning started a fire a few miles north of us, so you had the evaporating rain going down mixed with the smoke going up
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Re: So close....
« Reply #80 on: September 29, 2011, 07:13:55 pm »
Holy Crap!
http://www.kbtx.com/home/headlines/Texas_Drought_Could_Last_Until_2020_Says_Texas_AM_Expert_130799443.html

Quote
Texas Drought Could Last Until 2020, Says Texas A&M Expert
Texas’ historic and lingering drought has already worn out its welcome, but it could easily stay around for years and there is a chance it might last another five years or even until 2020, says a Texas A&M University weather expert

more at link

das

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Re: So close....
« Reply #81 on: September 30, 2011, 07:33:40 am »
Holy Crap!
http://www.kbtx.com/home/headlines/Texas_Drought_Could_Last_Until_2020_Says_Texas_AM_Expert_130799443.html

more at link

Irresponsible, alarmist comment.  People will see his title, assume that this is credible and make material life/property decisions based on a comment like this.  The research regarding decadal drought in the lower and upper midwest is still in its infancy with preliminary conclusions all over the place.  It's still 5-10 years away from definitive conclusion:
http://journals.ametsoc.org/page/CLIVAR_Drought
Another trenchant comment by a jealous lesser intellect.

das

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Re: So close....
« Reply #82 on: September 30, 2011, 07:49:40 am »
Oh, and, look at this re: the Bastrop wildfire. Absolutely amazing how fast these things move:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhJeDYQVtdQ
Another trenchant comment by a jealous lesser intellect.

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Re: So close....
« Reply #83 on: September 30, 2011, 08:08:19 am »
One argument in that article that doesn't persuade me and seems weak is the is the heat argument, made by using temperature as the measure (# of 100 degree days in Wichita Falls, etc.).  The temps were higher and the humidities were lower.  For someone who spends a decent amount of time outside, this summer was no more "unbearable" than others. 

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Re: So close....
« Reply #84 on: September 30, 2011, 10:43:13 am »
Oh, and, look at this re: the Bastrop wildfire. Absolutely amazing how fast these things move:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhJeDYQVtdQ


Amazing but not surprising, the winds from Lee were ridiculous that day.

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Re: So close....
« Reply #85 on: September 30, 2011, 10:50:22 am »
I've read a number of non-fiction works that speak extensively about the 50-60 year long "drought" cycle in central Texas.  The cycle is 50-60 years of declining precipitation, followed by 10-15yrs of steady precipitation.  This cycle was documented going back to the original Mission settlements (250+ yrs?). 

The one aspect of the current drought that does concern me is the drought impact in Houston.  I have never read or seen anything that indicates a sustained drought in Houston.  It's obviously possible, but never seen any documentation on the history of weather patterns similar to the current one. 
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Re: So close....
« Reply #86 on: September 30, 2011, 11:00:36 am »
The one aspect of the current drought that does concern me is the drought impact in Houston.

The aspect that concerns me is the increased population. There is a much greater demand for water than there was in the mid-50s. Forget about 2020, things are going to be ugly by next fall if there's no significant rain.
I remember all the good times me 'n Miller enjoyed
Up and down the M1 in some luminous yo-yo toy
But the future has to change - and to change I've got to destroy
Oh look out Lennon here I come - land ahoy-hoy-hoy

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Re: So close....
« Reply #87 on: September 30, 2011, 12:02:10 pm »
The aspect that concerns me is the increased population. There is a much greater demand for water than there was in the mid-50s. Forget about 2020, things are going to be ugly by next fall if there's no significant rain.

Killing off the rice crops next year will help.  We should be good in LCRA area for another year, but beyond that...
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Re: So close....
« Reply #88 on: September 30, 2011, 03:46:36 pm »
Amazing but not surprising, the winds from Lee were ridiculous that day.

Carlos is a windbag, but blaming wild fires on him? Ouch.
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Re: So close....
« Reply #89 on: September 30, 2011, 03:50:40 pm »
Carlos is a windbag, but blaming wild fires on him? Ouch.

Only 60 Ks this year.  He's no Soriano.
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das

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Re: So close....
« Reply #90 on: March 02, 2012, 11:11:36 am »
Yup.  upcoming winter will be very similar to last year.  Maaaaaybe just a skootch wetter in Texas but not much.  Biggest snows will be in California, the upper midwest and far Northeast.  Southeast will be warmish again with more rain the farther you go north and the mid-Atlantic wil again be the battleground between warm and cold with the warm usually winning.  Next year, it look like we go back to El Niño (getting away from this wretched La Niña) and get an active southern jet stream bringing pacific and gulf moisture to you in Texas and good cold and moisture up the atlantic seaboard.  Will suck for the west coast though.

OK, so, a large part of the imprecise business of forecasting is eating crow when you are wrong.  While my forecast for Texas may have felt right in the Houston area and in the south and far west portions of the state, large areas of the state saw impressive positive departures from normal precipitation for meteorological winter, flying in the face of normal La Nina climatology.  I could not be happier for you guys. 

https://public.blu.livefilestore.com/y1p3mCU2sxng_Cpc4OP4RGwX8XVEZN6iXpxxYqs867o0jY7DHw2VOR4v-lVd9unLrHs-WKMqNMvHsZ6qyrAvNC9iw/Texas%2011-12%20Winter.png

Still hoping for El Nino, and a switch back to more consistent winter rains across the whole state for you guys next winter.  This should become apparent (or not) in July or August.
Another trenchant comment by a jealous lesser intellect.

Andyzipp

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Re: So close....
« Reply #91 on: March 02, 2012, 11:12:25 am »
So should I invest in new sod this spring or not?

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Re: So close....
« Reply #92 on: March 02, 2012, 11:18:22 am »
So should I invest in new sod this spring or not?

Excellent question. I've been thinking about this, too.
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austro

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Re: So close....
« Reply #93 on: March 02, 2012, 11:20:06 am »
Excellent question. I've been thinking about this, too.

I think that part of my "yard" is going to get replaced with jasmine or something similar.
I remember all the good times me 'n Miller enjoyed
Up and down the M1 in some luminous yo-yo toy
But the future has to change - and to change I've got to destroy
Oh look out Lennon here I come - land ahoy-hoy-hoy

das

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Re: So close....
« Reply #94 on: March 02, 2012, 11:22:32 am »
So should I invest in new sod this spring or not?
Ooooo, that's tough.  It's likely that the drought, in some form, will persist through the summer.  The rains to the north and east of you have helped bring the fire dangers down as they have moistened the top layers of soil and the atmosphere some but just under the surface is still very dry.  If you want to plant, you should be prepared to water to get the roots established.  If that's even allowed for you guys down there.

If you live on the east side of town, things will be markedly better.  Houston will be on the edge of a pretty big battleground between improving drought conditions to the east and drought persistance to the west.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif
Another trenchant comment by a jealous lesser intellect.

strosrays

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Re: So close....
« Reply #95 on: March 02, 2012, 04:30:45 pm »
Ooooo, that's tough.  It's likely that the drought, in some form, will persist through the summer.  The rains to the north and east of you have helped bring the fire dangers down as they have moistened the top layers of soil and the atmosphere some but just under the surface is still very dry.  If you want to plant, you should be prepared to water to get the roots established.  If that's even allowed for you guys down there.

If you live on the east side of town, things will be markedly better.  Houston will be on the edge of a pretty big battleground between improving drought conditions to the east and drought persistance to the west.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif

Care to offer any predictions for hurricane season?  I need to know how much Bacardi and grenadine to lay in for the summer.

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Re: So close....
« Reply #96 on: March 02, 2012, 07:15:02 pm »
Care to offer any predictions for hurricane season?  I need to know how much Bacardi and grenadine to lay in for the summer.

I really need das to make sure that there are no hurricanes in the Houston area at the end of September. We've got a wedding on tap, and we haven't invited Rita or Ike or any of their kin.
I remember all the good times me 'n Miller enjoyed
Up and down the M1 in some luminous yo-yo toy
But the future has to change - and to change I've got to destroy
Oh look out Lennon here I come - land ahoy-hoy-hoy

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Re: So close....
« Reply #97 on: March 02, 2012, 09:00:25 pm »
I really need das to make sure that there are no hurricanes in the Houston area at the end of September. We've got a wedding on tap, and we haven't invited Rita or Ike or any of their kin.

What an added bit of excitement to the planning.  Is it an outdoor wedding?
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austro

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Re: So close....
« Reply #98 on: March 02, 2012, 09:35:12 pm »
What an added bit of excitement to the planning.  Is it an outdoor wedding?

No, it's indoors, so we've got that going for us.
I remember all the good times me 'n Miller enjoyed
Up and down the M1 in some luminous yo-yo toy
But the future has to change - and to change I've got to destroy
Oh look out Lennon here I come - land ahoy-hoy-hoy

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Re: So close....
« Reply #99 on: March 06, 2012, 10:09:46 pm »
Looks like we're in for a good bit of rain later this week.

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Re: So close....
« Reply #100 on: March 06, 2012, 10:41:54 pm »
Looks like we're in for a good bit of rain later this week.

I just hope it doesn't storm Saturday morning.
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Re: So close....
« Reply #101 on: March 07, 2012, 03:31:15 am »
I think that part of my "yard" is going to get replaced with jasmine or something similar.
Just sod it. Or Jasmine.
Up in the Air

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Re: So close....
« Reply #102 on: March 08, 2012, 11:52:16 am »
Raining in Denton County. And still the HOA will get on my toches about the weeds around the edges of the yard. Sorry, guys, I ain't pullin' nettles in the rain.
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Re: So close....
« Reply #103 on: March 08, 2012, 08:51:21 pm »
And now we got this solar flare headed for us at a gazillion miles per hour.

"We're fucked, " said 11 Rabbit.