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Author Topic: Power, pitching outages  (Read 4925 times)

Houston

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Power, pitching outages
« on: July 05, 2011, 08:38:58 am »
With 10 homers through the team's first 86 games, Hunter Pence is on pace to hit 19 home runs this season. That would be the lowest total for the team leader since Eric Anthony lead the team with 19 in 1992.

Wandy Rodriguez's projected 11 wins would be the lowest total for a leader since Danny Darwin and Mark Portugal tied with 11 in 1990.

Who's the projected top draft choice for 2012?
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hostros7

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #1 on: July 05, 2011, 08:45:48 am »
Well, the bad news is that--unlike the last three years--2012 looks to be a year where it is entirely possible to botch the #1 pick.
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MusicMan

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2011, 09:30:01 am »
Quote from: hostros7 on July 05, 2011, 08:45:48 am
Well, the bad news is that--unlike the last three years--2012 looks to be a year where it is entirely possible to botch the #1 pick.

"Mr. Nevin?  Mr. Phil Nevin, please pick up the white courtesy phone."
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hostros7

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2011, 09:51:33 am »
Quote from: MusicMan on July 05, 2011, 09:30:01 am
"Mr. Nevin?  Mr. Phil Nevin, please pick up the white courtesy phone."

#1 picks over the last 20+ years have hardly been layups:

1990 - Chipper Jones (Braves)
1991 - Brien Taylor (Yankees)
1992 - Nevin
1993 - Alex Rodriguez (Mariners)
1994 - Paul Wilson (Mets)
1995 - Darin Erstad (Angels)
1996 - Kris Benson (Pirates)
1997 - Matt Anderson (Tigers) (#2, 3, 5 were JD Drew, Troy Glaus, and Vernon Wells)
1998 - Pat Burrell (Phillies)
1999 - Josh Hamilton (Rays)
2000 - Adrian Gonzalez (Marlins)
2001 - Joe Mauer (Twins)
2002 - Bryan Bullington (Pirates)
2003 - Delmon Young (Rays)
2004 - Matt Bush (Padres)
2005 - Justin Upton (DBacks) (#4, 5, 7 were Zimmerman, Braun, Tulo)
2006 - Luke Hochevar (Royals)
2007 - David Price (Rays)
2008 - Tim Beckham (Rays)
2009 - Strasburg (Nats)
2010 - Harper (Nats)
2011 - Cole (Pirates)

That list actually didn't really make me feel any better like I had anticipated that it would.
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Houston

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2011, 10:00:05 am »
The Rays have had the top pick 4 times and picked three all-stars. Who works in the Rays front office can we get to help us with our top pick? The Hun?

1999 - Josh Hamilton (Rays)
2003 - Delmon Young (Rays)
2007 - David Price (Rays)
2008 - Tim Beckham (Rays)
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Randy Watson

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #5 on: July 05, 2011, 10:04:03 am »
We'll probably play better in the second half and lose the #1 pick.  Since there is no Harper or Strasburg that probably does not matter.
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BudGirl

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #6 on: July 05, 2011, 10:06:29 am »
Quote from: Randy Watson on July 05, 2011, 10:04:03 am
We'll probably play better in the second half and lose the #1 pick. 


I don't think this is going to be true this year.
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EasTexAstro

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #7 on: July 05, 2011, 10:06:32 am »
Quote from: hostros7 on July 05, 2011, 09:51:33 am
#1 picks over the last 20+ years have hardly been layups:

1990 - Chipper Jones (Braves)
1991 - Brien Taylor (Yankees)
1992 - Nevin
1993 - Alex Rodriguez (Mariners)
1994 - Paul Wilson (Mets)
1995 - Darin Erstad (Angels)
1996 - Kris Benson (Pirates)
1997 - Matt Anderson (Tigers) (#2, 3, 5 were JD Drew, Troy Glaus, and Vernon Wells)
1998 - Pat Burrell (Phillies)
1999 - Josh Hamilton (Rays)
2000 - Adrian Gonzalez (Marlins)
2001 - Joe Mauer (Twins)
2002 - Bryan Bullington (Pirates)
2003 - Delmon Young (Rays)
2004 - Matt Bush (Padres)
2005 - Justin Upton (DBacks) (#4, 5, 7 were Zimmerman, Braun, Tulo)
2006 - Luke Hochevar (Royals)
2007 - David Price (Rays)
2008 - Tim Beckham (Rays)
2009 - Strasburg (Nats)
2010 - Harper (Nats)
2011 - Cole (Pirates)

That list actually didn't really make me feel any better like I had anticipated that it would.

Weren't some of those picks compromises due to signabillity/cost/agent demands?
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hostros7

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #8 on: July 05, 2011, 10:07:38 am »
Quote from: Randy Watson on July 05, 2011, 10:04:03 am
We'll probably play better in the second half and lose the #1 pick.  Since there is no Harper or Strasburg that probably does not matter.

What gives you such optimism?  I'm serious.  I have no idea. 
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Jacksonian

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #9 on: July 05, 2011, 10:08:51 am »
Quote from: hostros7 on July 05, 2011, 09:51:33 am
2002 - Bryan Bullington (Pirates)
2004 - Matt Bush (Padres)

These were picks on the cheap. In 02, BJ Upton went #2, Greinke #6, and Fielder #7.  In 04, Verlander went #2, Humber #3 and, Niemann #4.

I expect that come June of next year there will be a clear top 2 or 3 guys who will go #1.
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MusicMan

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #10 on: July 05, 2011, 10:09:14 am »
Quote from: Randy Watson on July 05, 2011, 10:04:03 am
We'll probably play better in the second half and lose the #1 pick.  Since there is no Harper or Strasburg that probably does not matter.

I'm starting to wonder if we'll win 50.
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jbm

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #11 on: July 05, 2011, 10:11:18 am »
Quote from: Houston on July 05, 2011, 10:00:05 am
The Rays have had the top pick 4 times and picked three all-stars. Who works in the Rays front office can we get to help us with our top pick? The Hun?

1999 - Josh Hamilton (Rays)
2003 - Delmon Young (Rays)
2007 - David Price (Rays)
2008 - Tim Beckham (Rays)

You could also look at this list and see that it is still somewhat of a crap shoot.  Hamilton provided no value to the Rays, Young is/was medicocre and was dealt, and Beckham is looking like a bust.  
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Jacksonian

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #12 on: July 05, 2011, 10:16:38 am »
Quote from: jbm on July 05, 2011, 10:11:18 am
You could also look at this list and see that it is still somewhat of a crap shoot.  Hamilton provided no value to the Rays, Young is/was medicocre and was dealt, and Beckham is looking like a bust.  

All 3 out of high school where the washout rate is very high.
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Houston

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #13 on: July 05, 2011, 10:25:39 am »
Quote from: jbm on July 05, 2011, 10:11:18 am
You could also look at this list and see that it is still somewhat of a crap shoot.  Hamilton provided no value to the Rays, Young is/was medicocre and was dealt, and Beckham is looking like a bust.  

Young did drive in 112 runs just last year, so he showed his potential on the Major League level. Beckham is only 21, so it remains to be seen what kind of a player he'll become.
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MusicMan

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #14 on: July 05, 2011, 10:27:59 am »
Quote from: Houston on July 05, 2011, 10:25:39 am
Young did drive in 112 runs just last year, so he showed his potential on the Major League level. Beckham is only 21, so it remains to be seen what kind of a player he'll become.

The consensus is already that Beckham won't pan out.
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astrosfan76

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #15 on: July 05, 2011, 11:20:43 am »
Quote from: MusicMan on July 05, 2011, 10:27:59 am
The consensus is already that Beckham won't pan out.

Terrible decision that they chose him over Posey because they had Navarro at catcher.
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astrosfan76

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #16 on: July 05, 2011, 11:41:28 am »
Quote from: Jacksonian on July 05, 2011, 10:16:38 am
All 3 out of high school where the washout rate is very high.

On the flip side, if you look at the list by how well they panned out, you'd probably only have 1 college player in the top 6 (Verlander).  The other guys, at least I see them, would have A-Rod, Chipper, Hamilton, Gonzalez, and Mauer.  There aren't a lot of players anywhere that are/have been better.  Of course, you can always point to college guys that were passed over for HS players, like Braun/Tulo (though Upton could hardly be considered a bust, at this point).

I don't think you're saying that HS players should be avoided with the #1 pick, but the club will have to be careful who they pick.  At this early point, unless someone steps up (like Appel), the kid from Ball probably looks the most appealing.
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strosrays

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #17 on: July 05, 2011, 11:42:18 am »
Quote from: Houston on July 05, 2011, 08:38:58 am
With 10 homers through the team's first 86 games, Hunter Pence is on pace to hit 19 home runs this season. That would be the lowest total for the team leader since Eric Anthony lead the team with 19 in 1992.

One year in the late 1970s-early 1980s, Cheo Cruz led the team with 9.
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Jacksonian

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #18 on: July 05, 2011, 11:43:58 am »
Quote from: astrosfan76 on July 05, 2011, 11:41:28 am
On the flip side, if you look at the list by how well they panned out, you'd probably only have 1 college player in the top 6 (Verlander).  The other guys, at least I see them, would have A-Rod, Chipper, Hamilton, Gonzalez, and Mauer.  There aren't a lot of players anywhere that are/have been better.  Of course, you can always point to college guys that were passed over for HS players, like Braun/Tulo (though Upton could hardly be considered a bust, at this point).

I don't think you're saying that HS players should be avoided with the #1 pick, but the club will have to be careful who they pick.  At this early point, unless someone steps up (like Appel), the kid from Ball probably looks the most appealing.

Right now, I expect it to be a collegian.
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BudGirl

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #19 on: July 05, 2011, 11:46:37 am »
Quote from: Jacksonian on July 05, 2011, 11:43:58 am
Right now, I expect it to be a collegian.

move through the farm faster?
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Reuben

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #20 on: July 05, 2011, 11:54:51 am »
Quote from: strosrays on July 05, 2011, 11:42:18 am
One year in the late 1970s-early 1980s, Cheo Cruz led the team with 9.
Looks like it was 1979. JR Richard and Joaquin Andujar were in the running with 2 HR each. The next year, the West-winning Astros had five players with 10 or more, led by Terry Puhl's whopping 13.
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strosrays

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #21 on: July 05, 2011, 12:13:47 pm »
Quote from: Reuben on July 05, 2011, 11:54:51 am
Looks like it was 1979. JR Richard and Joaquin Andujar were in the running with 2 HR each. The next year, the West-winning Astros had five players with 10 or more, led by Terry Puhl's whopping 13.

Joe Morgan led one year with 13, right before they traded him to Cincy.  I think Bull Watson led one year with 13 or 14.  The Astrodome used to keep to down the HR totals pretty good.
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Jacksonian

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #22 on: July 05, 2011, 12:16:24 pm »
Quote from: BudGirl on July 05, 2011, 11:46:37 am
move through the farm faster?

That, and lower rate of failure, and I expect there to be 2 or 3 collegians who separate themselves from the rest.
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Houston

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #23 on: July 05, 2011, 12:19:40 pm »
Quote from: Reuben on July 05, 2011, 11:54:51 am
Looks like it was 1979. JR Richard and Joaquin Andujar were in the running with 2 HR each. The next year, the West-winning Astros had five players with 10 or more, led by Terry Puhl's whopping 13.

In both of those seasons, the Astros had at least 190 stolen bases, so they manufacturered runs. This year's team manufactures outs. The whole team -- outside of Bourn and Bourgeois -- has 16 steals.

Maybe we need a whole team of Stealer B's.
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strosrays

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #24 on: July 05, 2011, 02:25:36 pm »
Quote from: Houston on July 05, 2011, 12:19:40 pm
In both of those seasons, the Astros had at least 190 stolen bases, so they manufacturered runs. This year's team manufactures outs. The whole team -- outside of Bourn and Bourgeois -- has 16 steals.

Maybe we need a whole team of Stealer B's.

Both teams had guys who would take a pitch here and there, too.  Cruz, for starters.  I am guessing each of those clubs had walk totals higher to significantly higher than this one.
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austro

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #25 on: July 05, 2011, 02:27:49 pm »
Quote from: strosrays on July 05, 2011, 02:25:36 pm
I am guessing each of those clubs had walk totals higher to significantly higher than this one.

What club in the history of baseball hasn't?
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Reuben

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #26 on: July 05, 2011, 02:28:09 pm »
Quote from: Houston on July 05, 2011, 12:19:40 pm
In both of those seasons, the Astros had at least 190 stolen bases, so they manufacturered runs. This year's team manufactures outs. The whole team -- outside of Bourn and Bourgeois -- has 16 steals.

Maybe we need a whole team of Stealer B's.
All those steals aren't quite as helpful if the other team is killing you with HRs. In the 'Dome that wasn't such a problem. I'm sure Brett Myers would prefer to pitch the rest of this season in the 'Dome circa 1979.

That said, I sure wouldn't mind more speed on the modern Astros. But, SOME power would be nice too.
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Houston

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #27 on: July 05, 2011, 02:33:07 pm »
Quote from: strosrays on July 05, 2011, 02:25:36 pm
Both teams had guys who would take a pitch here and there, too.  Cruz, for starters.  I am guessing each of those clubs had walk totals higher to significantly higher than this one.

The 1979 team didn't walk much, but also didn't strike out much. Cruz led the team with 72 walks and Ashby whiffed 70 times to lead the team.

By comparison, Pence had already struck out 72 times this year and Wallace leads with 34 walks.
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Houston

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Re: Power, pitching outages
« Reply #28 on: July 11, 2011, 07:42:41 am »
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