Comparing LAN stats: Hinze (11)/ Clemens (09)/ Gaston (09)

[OregonStrosFan]

Neither here nor there... but I was curious how Kody Hinze's monster 2011 Lancaster in Lancaster compared with Koby Clemens' and Jon Gaston's monster 2009 seasons in Lancaster. Given the struggles of Gaston and Clemens post-Lancaster, I was curious if the numbers could predict potential future success (or struggles) for Hinze post-Lancaster.  I'm passing on any analysis at this time because I'm curious to read your thoughts.   

I'll be breaking down the tables into 2 separate posts: Home/Away and Pre-ASB/Post-ASB (obviously Hinze doesn't have any stats for the last category yet...).

And with that, analyze away!

[OregonStrosFan]

AB H 1B 2B 3B HR BB IBB SO R RBI SB CS HBP GDP AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO SO/BB AB/SO     AB/BB

2009 Clemens Home 216 76 41 19 2 14 31 2 48 44 72 0 0 2 3 0.352 0.438 0.653 1.091 0.301 1.55 4.50 6.97

2009 Gaston Home 260 80 28 22 12 18 38 3 78 72 56 10 2 4 1 0.308 0.404 0.692 1.096 0.385 2.05 3.33 6.84

2011 Hinze Home 113 36 21 6 0 9 28 - 31 32 26 0 0 - - 0.319 0.455 0.611 1.065 0.292 1.11 3.65 4.04

2009 Clemens Away 224 74 36 26 4 8 23 0 63 32 51 4 1 7 1 0.330 0.409 0.589 0.999 0.259 2.74 3.56 9.74

2009 Gaston Away 258 64 35 9 3 17 33 1 86 47 44 4 2 4 2 0.248 0.342 0.504 0.846 0.256 2.61 3.00 7.82

2011 Hinze Away 114 42 22 10 0 10 30 - 28 18 33 1 0 - - 0.368 0.503 0.719 1.223 0.351 0.93 4.07 3.80

[OregonStrosFan]

AB H 1B 2B 3B HR BB IBB SO R RBI SB CS HBP GDP AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO SO/BB AB/SO     AB/BB

2009 Clemens Pre ASB 180 55 33 17 2 3 25 0 45 24 43 0 1 1 3 0.306 0.393 0.472 0.865 0.167 1.80 4.00 7.20

2009 Gaston Pre ASB 257 81 35 20 9 17 36 0 67 60 52 9 2 3 0 0.315 0.405 0.661 1.067 0.346 1.86 3.84 7.14

2011 Hinze Pre ASB 227 78 43 16 0 19 58 - 59 50 59 1 0 - - 0.344 0.479 0.665 1.145 0.321 1.02 3.85 3.91

2009 Clemens Post ASB 260 95 44 28 4 19 29 2 66 52 80 4 0 8 1 0.365 0.444 0.723 1.168 0.358 2.28 3.94 8.97

2009 Gaston Post ASB 261 63 28 11 6 18 35 4 97 59 48 5 2 5 3 0.241 0.342 0.536 0.879 0.295 2.77 2.69 7.46

2011 Hinze Post ASB - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

[Duder]

The first thing that pops out to me are the Home/Away splits.  Both Gaston and Clemens' numbers were better at home (especially Gaston) whereas Hinze's numbers are actually better on the road than at Lancaster.  Hinze is also walking at a considerably better rate than either Clemens or Gaston.  I'm cautiously optimistic that Hinze can continue to be successful as he ascends through the minors.

[Navin R Johnson]

Good stuff OSF.  I wonder how long until they promote him, it isn't like they have anyone at Corpus blocking him.   Heck there isn't really anyone at OKC blocking him either.

[OregonStrosFan]

The first thing that pops out to me are the Home/Away splits.  Both Gaston and Clemens' numbers were better at home (especially Gaston) whereas Hinze's numbers are actually better on the road than at Lancaster.  Hinze is also walking at a considerably better rate than either Clemens or Gaston.  I'm cautiously optimistic that Hinze can continue to be successful as he ascends through the minors.

Those were the things that stuck out to me as well.  Wasn't sure if I went into the exercise trying to talk myself down from being pessimistic (based on the Clemens/Gaston then vs. now numbers) or optimistic (dude is hitting a ton with power and some patience), but whatever the case I came to the conclusion that it wouldn't be wholly delusional on my part (this time anyway) to think that the kid just might continue to do well in the upper levels...

[Jacksonian]

Those were the things that stuck out to me as well.  Wasn't sure if I went into the exercise trying to talk myself down from being pessimistic (based on the Clemens/Gaston then vs. now numbers) or optimistic (dude is hitting a ton with power and some patience), but whatever the case I came to the conclusion that it wouldn't be wholly delusional on my part (this time anyway) to think that the kid just might continue to do well in the upper levels...

Have a look at the historical work for each prior to Lancaster.  If you're looking for stats to support your case you're going to be disappointed.

[OregonStrosFan]

Have a look at the historical work for each prior to Lancaster.  If you're looking for stats to support your case you're going to be disappointed.

I'm an Astros fan, I've gotten accustomed to it...

Seriously though, it was more of a 'should I completely disregard his LAN numbers' (as I have with Gaston), or 'could there actually be something to this.'  Personally, I'm hoping for the latter...

[Duman]

I expect him to be promoted after the Cal/Car All Star game.  His stats has a big jump last year in Lex and then a bigger jump here.  Taking favorable hitting conditions into the Cal League into consideration,  is it possible he is just figured some things out and is reaching potential?  Granted he more the age for AA than for A+ ball.

[OregonStrosFan]

Astros County sifts through the numbers a bit further. LINK

[jbm]

I suspect the truth, like for most questions related to the future of minor leaguers, lies beyond stats an instead can only be explained through first hand observations by those with that type of skill.  In other words, delving into the statistical history of three guys with parallel paths seems like it might be illustrative, but it just produces noise, especially if you threw Altuve into the mix. 

Alternatively, there are most likely Astros player development people, or scouts, who could provide meaningful explanations of Clemen's and Gaston's success at Lancaster and their subsequent difficulties at higher levels.  Probably something about the nature of their weaknesses and the strength of AA and AAA pitching.  Maybe they feel there is a similar flaw with Hinze, and don't see his promotion, or lack of promotion as that big of a deal.  Then again, maybe he is promoted tonight, rakes in AA and eventually becomes a solid MLB player.

[OregonStrosFan]

Admittedly, a lot of noise. There is also some relevance as well.  For example, Altuve's numbers show he doesn't walk a lot, but yet doesn't strike out a ton either - that would tend to indicate that he puts balls in play. Hinze's 'reverse LAN split' would at least show that his numbers can't wholly be ignored for the simply fact that he plays at the Hangar.  Gaston's LAN numbers vs. his post LAN numbers would tend to indicate that his LAN season was not indicative of his true skills as a power threat.

Other numbers don't say much at all (IMO anyway). For example, Astros MiLB pitchers aren't burning up the strikeout leaderboards. Does that mean that Folty can't throw 'em? Not to me anyway. Without knowing what his instructions are (possible e.g., kid, just want you to work on your fastball location tonight), or know what the Astros MiLB pitching coordinators are preaching (possible e.g. forget strikeouts, we want y'all to work on pitching to contact), it's really impossible to know what low-ish strikeout rates from Astros MiLB pitchers actually means.

So, while I agree with much of jbm's comments re: stats, I'm not prepared to throw all of them out as noise.

[jbm]

Fair enough.  Delving deeper like you just did provides what appears to be more insightful, but I am still sceptical of statistical analysis as a path to knowledge.  I didn't start out that way, and I still enjoying doing it, just don't expect to learn anything anymore.

Another fascinating example is Lyles' K rate.  I always heard "blah blah blah" about his AAA K rate as a predictor of his major league potential.  It's all nonsense.  As his secondary pitches (mainly his curve) get better, his K rate gets better.  In other words, the statistical observation of his past K rate means/meant less than nothing.  Takes one farther from the truth than closer.