Hot start / cold start

[OregonStrosFan]

At what point does a hot start (or cold start) mean something more than just a hot (or cold) start?

E.g. (hot start): Mier, Altuve, Nash, Wallace, Villar, Clemens, etc.;
E.g. (cold start): Wates, DeShields, Steele, etc.

Just curious what your thoughts were...  As for me, I'm not concerned about, for example, Wates start of the season thus far, but am finding it difficult not to get excited about the season starts for Altuve, Nash, Mier, Martinez, etc.

[OregonStrosFan]

Not sure how I forgot to add Jay Austin to the 'finding it difficult not to get excited about the season start' category...

[jbm]

Honestly, without seeing the actual performances, it is impossible to say.  Three examples, two positive and one negative:

Cisnero: Did something click and he has improved, or is he pitching much like last year, and the first two outings were the product of unique conditions or simply facing a crappy team.  Without the firsthand knowledge, it is impossible to tell.

Austin: Where did the patience come from?  To answer this, one really needs to know what his previous flaws were and whether he has actually corrected them.  

Lyles: Is he simply working on particular pitches, lacks ability, making adjustments, hates Oklahoma.  Without seeing him, or knowing him, it is impossible to say whether his bad start is telling of anything at all.

So, my answer to your question is "when it represents actual improvement or decline," but that can't be said without firsthand knowledge of the player's past and present.

[astrosfan76]

I tend to agree with jbm.  It's hard to get a real good assessment from a stat sheet, though it can give at least a clue as to how likely the player is to improve or regress.  A player hitting .340 but has struck out 15 times in 13 games, against only 3 walks, is probably going to see a huge drop.  Of course, players do make adjustments, so poor patience now doesn't mean poor patience all season.

The other side of the coin is track record, pedigree, and how advanced a player is for a league.  A guy who has always hit well, but is off to a slow start, isn't always cause for concern.  A 4-year senior tearing up low-A, however, doesn't necessarily mean anything.

Side note on Austin:  He may have turned a corner with his discipline.  From the stat sheet, of course, he seemed to be working on drawing more walks in the AFL.  His overall numbers weren't that great, but his walk rate was way up compared to the regular season.  Maybe it was something the club had him working on.  If he can harness it, that would be very good for his development.

[Jacksonian]

Something else to consider, those guys drafted out of high school in 2008 (Lyles, Austin, Seaton, Dydalewicz, Luis Cruz, Grimmett, and Rene Garcia) would be college juniors this spring.  They would all be playing short season A-ball this summer.

[OregonStrosFan]

Honestly, without seeing the actual performances, it is impossible to say.  Three examples, two positive and one negative:

Cisnero: Did something click and he has improved, or is he pitching much like last year, and the first two outings were the product of unique conditions or simply facing a crappy team.  Without the firsthand knowledge, it is impossible to tell.

Austin: Where did the patience come from?  To answer this, one really needs to know what his previous flaws were and whether he has actually corrected them. 

Lyles: Is he simply working on particular pitches, lacks ability, making adjustments, hates Oklahoma.  Without seeing him, or knowing him, it is impossible to say whether his bad start is telling of anything at all.

So, my answer to your question is "when it represents actual improvement or decline," but that can't be said without firsthand knowledge of the player's past and present.

I guess I was mainly talking in terms of batters here. I agree that 2 (or 3) starts for a pitcher at the beginning of a season doesn't tell much of a story one way or another. Batters, however, are at the 50-60 AB mark, which made me curious about when to 'really' start paying attention to the numbers (as that is typically all I have to go on right now for LEX and LAN guys). Is it 50 ABs? 100? 250??

[Jacksonian]

I guess I was mainly talking in terms of batters here. I agree that 2 (or 3) starts for a pitcher at the beginning of a season doesn't tell much of a story one way or another. Batters, however, are at the 50-60 AB mark, which made me curious about when to 'really' start paying attention to the numbers (as that is typically all I have to go on right now for LEX and LAN guys). Is it 50 ABs? 100? 250??

Below AA the numbers should be mostly ignored.  Too many developmental issues.

Having said that, if someone like Austin shows marked improvement over a 2 month period in something they've struggled with then the numbers may be worth noting.

[Travis]

I guess I was mainly talking in terms of batters here. I agree that 2 (or 3) starts for a pitcher at the beginning of a season doesn't tell much of a story one way or another. Batters, however, are at the 50-60 AB mark, which made me curious about when to 'really' start paying attention to the numbers (as that is typically all I have to go on right now for LEX and LAN guys). Is it 50 ABs? 100? 250??

This is an interesting take on sample size: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/525600-minutes-how-do-you-measure-a-player-in-a-year/

Of course, this is for major leaguers and Jacksonian's point about #'s at low levels cannot be ignored.

[roadrunner]

While it would be great if DeShields came out firing, it's hard to judge an 18 year old in his first 50 at bats of pro baseball.  On top of that, he's trying to learn a new position.  His signing bonus wasn't for how he performs in the first half of Class A.

[chuck]

While it would be great if DeShields came out firing, it's hard to judge an 18 year old in his first 50 at bats of pro baseball.  On top of that, he's trying to learn a new position.  His signing bonus wasn't for how he performs in the first half of Class A.

Anyone hear anything about how DeShields is doing in defield? How is his De Fense?

[Duman]

I saw him for the rain shortened game in Asheville.  He got to balls fine.  He looked tentative on his throws.

He had trouble getting the ball out of his glove on a routine grounder that would have started a run saving double play in the final inning.  He did get the force at 2nd. The ball may have been muddy and wet in that situation however, the game should have been stopped.  Here is a link to the field conditions before that play.