Season in Review – Oklahoma City Redhawks
Record: 68-75 (.476)
Hitting: .260/.341/.381 88HR 1016K 540BB 143SB 62CS 124GIDP
Pitching: 4.63ERA 1.52WHIP 135HR 984K 506BB
Offensive Leaders
Anderson Hernandez – G/PA/AB/R/H/SB/TB/Sac(tie)/AVG
Koby Clemens – HR(16)/K
Drew Locke – 2B/RBI/SLG
J.B. Shuck – BB/OBP
J.R. Towles – HBP
Oswaldo Navarro – SF
Robinson Cancel – OPS
Tommy Manzella – GIDP
Pitching Leaders
Andy Van Hekken – W-L/ERA(3.40)/IP/K/BF/WHIP
Sergio Perez – GS/BB/HB/WP
David Carpenter/Jose Valdez – SV(tie)
Ross Wolf – G/GF
As the season progresses
April: 8-14 (.364)
May: 15-15 (.500)
June: 11-18 (.379)
July: 11-17 (.393)
August: 23-11 (.676)
AAA rosters are always in a state of flux, but this year’s Redhawks took it to an extreme with 31 position players and 36 pitchers. And that does not count 2 catchers who went over to the dark side to see what the other end of the battery looks like. There are typically a few real prospects honing their skills as they await their chance in the majors, but most of the roster is made up of veterans who provide emergency insurance for the big league club and so-called “AAAA” players who fill roster holes in an attempt to field a winning team. In 2011, this attempt fell short of the mark until August when, bolstered by Chris Johnson & Brett Wallace, the ‘hawks surged to a by-then-too-late 23-11 mark. Stats matter at this level but do not always translate into success at the next level; it is easy to be fooled by a AAAA player having a career year. This is especially true in the bullpen where one or two bad outings can cause a major distortion.
Outfield
April LF: Shuck(Locke); CF: Bogusevic/DeLome/(Shuck); RF: Bogusevic/Locke/(DeLome)
May LF: Shuck/(Clemens/Inglett); CF: Barnes; RF: Locke(Bogusevic/Shuck)
June LF: Shuck(Locke); CF: Barnes(DeLome); RF: Bogusevic(Locke)
July LF: Shuck/(Durango/DeLome); CF: Durango(Barnes/Bogusevic); RF: Locke/DeLome
August LF: Goebbert/(Durango/DeLome); CF: Durango/DeLome; RF: Locke(Goebbert)
Brian Bogusevic (.261/.362/.399 and 20/3 SB/CS) was back and forth between OK and Houston, where he has actually posted better numbers. He looks like he is establishing himself in RF or at least as OF4 for next year.
J.B. Shuck (.297/.398/.367 and 20/11 SB/CS) has also spent some time in Houston, but his lack of power makes him a long-shot to stick next year.
Drew Locke put up a .264/.335/.432 line, but at age 28 has probably reached his ceiling.
Colin DeLome was injured early in the season and ended up at .256/.317/.420 in <300 PA. While his power was down a little, this was an improvement over last year’s .224/.270/.452. He plays all three OF positions well. At 25, if he can stay healthy and put together a solid season in 2012, he may compete for a OF4/5 someplace.
Brandon Barnes was promoted when DeLome went on the DL, but hit a disappointing .197/.294/.402 (albeit with 8 HR) in 263 PA. At 25, he is probably out of time.
Luis Durango was claimed off waivers from San Diego in June and put up a .273/.362/.299 line with 18/9 SB/CS and only 3 XBH in 180 PA. He has zero XBH in 74 big league PA and only 1 HR in over 1800 full-season MiLB PA (in 2008 in the Midwest League). I see him as a spare part only.
Jacob Goebbert was promoted in August (replacing Barnes who was sent back to CC) and hit .283/.345/.415. This was his second promotion of the year, and he has solidified his “prospect” status. He should be interesting to watch next year.
Infield
April 1B: Clemens; 2B: Hernandez/Vallejo 3B: Navarro(Hernandez); SS: Manzella
May 1B: Clemens(Dopirak); 2B: Vallejo(Hernandez/Inglett); 3B: Hernandez(Navarro); SS: Manzella(Hernandez)
June 1B: Clemens(Dopirak/Bogusevic); 2B: Hernandez/(Manzella/Sutil/Vallejo); 3B: Navarro/(Hernandez/Clemens); SS: Manzella(Sutil/Hernandez)
July 1B: Clemens(Cancel); 2B: Hernandez/(Sutil); 3B: Navarro(Clemens); SS: Manzella(Sutil)
August 1B: Wallace(Clemens); 2B: Vallejo/Navarro(Hernandez) 3B: Johnson(Navarro); SS: Hernandez(Manzella)
Koby Clemens was the regular at 1B for most of the season, and also played 21 games at 3B and 7 in LF. At 24, he led the team in HR, and his .234/.331/.424 line was consistent with last year’s AA line of .241/.350/.476. If he can continue to improve, he may get a shot with Houston by 2013 … especially if they end up needing a DH.
Anderson Hernandez (.300/.366/.400) played regularly but his regular position varied according to the surrounding cast. He led the team in most offensive categories (as well as errors) by simply playing in 136 of 143 games. At 28, though, he is definitely a AAAA insurance policy, not a prospect.
Osvaldo Navarro (.267/.348/.333) spent time at 2B and 3B according to need but did not improve on last year’s .271/.361/.424 in about the same number of PA. He is only 25, but probably more “suspect” than “prospect”.
Jose Vallejo was injured and played at several levels, posting a .273/.344/.309 line in 62 PA as the semi-regular 2B in August – an improvement that gave him a full year line of .233/.311/.295. At 24, he will probably be back.
As noted above, Brett Wallace (.356/.437/.481) and Chris Johnson (.272/.372/.506) both spent August in the Oklahoma Penalty Box, helping the team to post its only month with a winning record. In other news, Brian Dopirak (.252/.287/.420) was cut after being a regular at 1B/DH in April & May; Wlad Sutil posted a .222/.296/.254 line in June and July before being sent back to CC; and both Andrew Simunic (April) and Brandon Wikoff (August) made cameo appearances without much success. The 23-year-old Wikoff may be back.
Catcher
April Corporan(Cancel)
May Cancel(Ramirez)
June Cancel/(Ramirez/Esposito)
July Towles/(Cancel/Esposito)
August Cancel/Towles
Who are these guys? They put up decent offensive numbers as a group (.279/.362/.391 led by Robinson Cancel at . 299/.374/.396) and threw out 39% of would-be base-stealers. I just do not see any of them as more than place-holders, except maybe J.R. Towles (.276/.430/.400 in 136 PA) who continues to get way more chances than he really earned with his long-ago magical September.
Rotation
April Lyles/Perez/Villar/(Arguello/Nieve/Rowland-Smith)
May Lyles/Perez/Rowland-Smith/Arguello/(Villar/Figueroa)
June Perez/Rowland-Smith/Figueroa/Chacin/Van Hekken
July Perez/Figueroa/Van Hekken/Hennessey/(Chacin/Harrell)
August Van Hekken/Harrell/Keuchel/Rowland-Smith/(Happ/Cedeno)
Jordan Lyles was the story here … 1-2/3.67 in April improving to 2-1/2.81 in May before getting the call to Houston. He was moved to the bullpen (and for a week or so back to AAA) in August to limit his workload. He looks like at least a middle-of-the-rotation starter for quite a while.
The “other story” was Andy Van Hekken (9-6/3.40 with 111 K in 129+ IP; 19 starts and 16 relief appearances). He was moved into the rotation at the end of May (replacing Arguello) and pitched well enough to improve his chances of returning to the majors where he started 5 games for Detroit while most of his teammates had yet to turn pro.
For the second year in a row and three of the last four, Sergio Perez (5-9/4.25) missed time due to injury. More was expected of the 2006 second-rounder who has never seen short-season play. His control problems are not improving (~4BB/9 over his career) and his WHIP has grown with every jump in level (1.61 this year). I would not be shocked to see him leave via minor league free agency.
Ryan Rowland-Smith hoped to be playing in Houston this year. Instead, he spent a disappointing year in AAA (2-10/6.19) including a stint on the DL.
Henry Villar made the jump to AAA, but after a mediocre start (2-1/6.81; 15 K & 25 BB in 38+ innings) he went to the bullpen, the DL and eventually to AA.
Doug Arguello was injured early, but pitched well … going 1-1/3.72 in 2 April starts and 1-4/4.75 in May after coming off the DL. He was banished to the bullpen where he pitched very well (1-1/0.44 with 15K in 20+ IP in June & July). He still struggled with control, though and was eventually released in August after an especially brutal outing, finishing at 5-7/3.67. He may find a home somewhere, but I doubt the Astros will regret his release.
Nelson Figueroa pitched poorly and was released.
Gustavo Chacin pitched poorly and was released.
Fernando Nieve pitched poorly and was released to go to Korea.
Brad Hennessey pitched poorly and was released.
Dallas Keuchel pitched poorly after being promoted, but ended on a high note, giving up 1 run on 7 hits in 7 innings for his last start of the year. He finished at 1-1/7.50 in AAA and should anchor the rotation next year.
J.A. Happ pitched poorly in Houston, but posted a 1-0 record and a 1.50 ERA in three starts at AAA before being recalled.
Lucas Harrell, picked up from the White Sox off waivers, pitched well (5-2/1.72) and was called up to the Astros in September.
Henry Sosa, picked up in the Keppinger deal, pitched 7 innings of shutout ball in his one-start stopover between Corpus and Houston (apparently directed by an Aggie mapmaker).
Xavier Cedeno had three starts after being promoted and also spent some time in the bullpen, ending up 2-3 with a 6.23 ERA and 27 K in 26 IP. He should be in the OKC rotation in 2012 (if he is not forced into service in Houston).
Paul Clemens, picked up in the Bourn deal, got hit hard in one AAA start at the end of the season.
Bullpen – by IP
April F.Rodriguez/R.Wolf/Chacin/Fien/Escalona/Van Hekken/Wright
May Van Hekken/Wright/R.Wolf/Chacin/Carpenter/F.Rodriguez/Abad/Escalona
June Meszaros/Wright/R.Wolf/Carpenter/Valdez/Arguello/Abad/Urckfitz
July Wright/Gervacio/Storey/R.Wolf/Arguello/Fien/Fulchino/Abad
August Cedeno/Storey/Abad/Gervacio/Wright/J.Abreu/Valdez/Fulchino
The bullpen was even more in flux than the rotation … partly because of injury, partly because there was moving back and forth between roles and partly because of the revolving door in Houston as the Astros struggled to find someone who could theoretically hold a lead if they ever got one.
Guys who ended up in Houston (along with their AAA stats) included Wesley Wright (65+ IP; 3-1/2.07; 2 saves in 3 starts and 36 relief appearances), Fernando Rodriguez (24 IP; 2-3/1.50; 2 saves), David Carpenter (19 IP; 9 saves; zero ER), Sergio Escalona (17 IP; 1-0/3.18; 3 saves) and Juan Abreu (9+ IP; 1-0/1.86; 3 saves). Honorable mention goes to Jeff Fulchino (16 IP; 1-0/0.56; 3 saves) who was plucked off waivers by San Diego.
Guys who ended up in AA included Danny Meszaros (25+ IP; 1-1/4.56) as well as Pat Urckfitz and Erick Abreu, who both had double-digit ERA’s in 4 relief appearances. And in an echo of the comments above, both Casey Fien and Francis Beltran pitched poorly and were released.
Ross Wolf (4-3/4.76; 3 saves) was the bullpen workhorse with 56 appearances and 73+ IP. At 28, he is definitely “filler”. Sammy Gervacio (33+ IP; 4-0/4.01), Fernando Abad (30 IP; 2-3/4.80) and Jose Valdez (20+ IP; 1-0/5.66) all had their chances with Houston, but ended up in Oklahoma. Mickey Storey (29+ IP; 1-0/3.99; 2 saves after being signed in early July) also figured in the mix, while Jonnathan Aristil and Arcenio Leon each made one late-season appearance after being promoted from Corpus Christi. All of these guys figure to compete for playing time next year, but none seems destined for greatness.
In sum: This was a depressing year to be an Astros fan, and the instability at AAA was one of the most obvious symptoms of the disease. There is little in terms of prospective help for the 2012 Astros to be found, and apart from the late-season call-ups, not much beyond 2012. And any help next year will probably have to come from outside the organization, as the real prospects have mostly been rushed all the way to Houston. An appropriate motto for next year might be, “Wait for next year” … let’s hope it does not become a habit.