When I said 41+, I meant just that - it'd be a long field goal. Half the time onside kicks don't go 10 yards, because the kicker is trying to kick it as short as possible, but still getting the minimum 10. And if you get any kind of minuscule return, you can be starting anywhere from the 30-40 yard line.
VERY rarely does the kick not go 10 yards. The kicker is trying to *make sure* it goes 10 yards. More often, it goes 12 or so yards.
So after getting 8-9 yards, its very possible to be in very makable (if that's a word) field goal range.
Sure it's "makeable". A 55-yarder is "makeable".
You can't say "no one" would take that long field goal to go up two scores. These are NFL kickers, hell yeah some guys would take that FG in a 3 point game.
A field goal wouldn't have put them up by two scores, it would have put them up by 6 points, in which case one score can still beat you. No coach (OK maybe Gary Kubiak) would risk giving the Chargers the ball at the 40 yard line by attempting a long field goal to go up by 6.
You misunderstood. Of course the Jets don't need to score, they are leading. Its the Chargers that need to score. If you kick it deep, the receiving team with the lead is less likely to go for it at their own 20, because they are giving up the tying field goal. That makes the winning team much less likely to take that 4th and 1 chance as opposed to the opposite side of the field. Its just field position. Its a difference of anywhere between 30-50 yards. That is huge.
You said "after an onside recovery, if the receiving team goes for it and doesn't get it, the other team has to go 65+ yds for a td".
1. The Chargers would be the "recovering" team.
2. Neither team needs a td.
I really have no idea what you were trying to say here.
Sure, its defensible I guess
That's my point.
But if it was the favored choice, he wouldn't be getting second guessed so much.
Coaches get second guessed for every move, especially after a loss. I wouldn't place much stock in the fact that armchair coaches are second guessing him after it didn't work meaning that it was unequivocally the wrong move.
With that low % of onside kick success, you are going with a gambling mentality of all or nothing.
No, you're not. You still have the opportunity to stop the Jets from making a first down, something you absolutely positively HAVE to do if you kick it deep.
Which is fine, that's the coach's prerogative. All I'm saying is that I'm definitely more of a safe, play the odds guy rather than "all in on black" type of guy. If you kick deep and get the stop, you are getting the ball back, period. And the chances of getting a 3 and out are higher than getting an onside kick, and conversely your team has a higher chance of putting that ball back in that QB's hand just one last time at least. Just my .02. To each their own.
First, an onsides kick is not an "all or nothing" move. Secondly, kicking it deep was not necessarily the "safe" move. You STILL have to stop the Jets from making a first down. If you question whether or not your defense can do that, then kicking deep is decidedly NOT the safe play.
