Al Pedrique comments

[juliogotay]

Pedrique was interviewed by Lucas before Fri nite game. He spent most of the year in a developmental role in the minors before coaching 3rd when Cooper was sent home. It was a one-question interview that being "give us some names of players that excite you in the lower minors" (lower than AA). He provided only three, the three OFers in Lancaster.....Gaston, Steele and Shuck. He said they are all good talents and he expects to see them knocking on the door in a year or so.

[Reuben]

The Chron fan blogger (Chip Bailey?) wondered the other day if the Astros should consider trading Wandy this winter, figuring his salary's about to go way up in arbitration, he's already 30 years old, his value will never be higher, etc.

The same basically applies to Pence, right? He's going to start earning a lot through arb the next couple years. If Pedrique is right about the pace the Astros org has in mine for Gaston, Steele, and Shuck, that means one or more could make the majors by 2011... I wonder where Pence's trade value stands right now? If they really wanted to shake things up and reload for 1-2 years down the road, maybe instead of Oswalt and Berkman, they should trade Pence and/or Wandy for some stud high A/AA pitching prospects.

[JimR]

The Chron fan blogger (Chip Bailey?) wondered the other day if the Astros should consider trading Wandy this winter, figuring his salary's about to go way up in arbitration, he's already 30 years old, his value will never be higher, etc.

The same basically applies to Pence, right? He's going to start earning a lot through arb the next couple years. If Pedrique is right about the pace the Astros org has in mine for Gaston, Steele, and Shuck, that means one or more could make the majors by 2011... I wonder where Pence's trade value stands right now? If they really wanted to shake things up and reload for 1-2 years down the road, maybe instead of Oswalt and Berkman, they should trade Pence and/or Wandy for some stud high A/AA pitching prospects.

trade Wandy? bullshit. what a crackpot notion.

[Duder]

trade Wandy? bullshit. what a crackpot notion.

I concur.  He has steadily improved every season.  It's not like he came out of nowhere this season.  The Astros biggest need is starting pitching, so why would we subtract from that?

[Reuben]

I concur.  He has steadily improved every season.  It's not like he came out of nowhere this season.  The Astros biggest need is starting pitching, so why would we subtract from that?

I agree with you in principle, and I hope they can keep Wandy around (He's due to be a FA after 2011, by which point he'll probably be making big bucks). Here's Bailey's original blog. Key part:

No doubt, it's a risky, bold move, but Wandy's stock has never been higher, which also means the potential return for the Astros has never been higher.

Wandy will be 31 next May and is entering his second year of arbitration eligibility. He earned $2.6 million this year (he asked for $3 million), but could jump to the $6 million level this off season.

My main point was about the idea of trading Pence, who is more easily replaced than Wandy- the Astros have three potentially better OFs who have a chance to be here by 2011- and could still bring back a nice package of players if the Astros decide to focus more on contending after 2010. I realize it's not likely at all to happen (nor is it a new idea on this site), because of the marketing department's crush on Pence, but then again, Pence displaced a couple of former fan/ front office darlings, Burke, and to a lesser extent Luke Scott. So you never know.

[juliogotay]

I agree with you in principle, and I hope they can keep Wandy around (He's due to be a FA after 2011, by which point he'll probably be making big bucks). Here's Bailey's original blog. Key part:
My main point was about the idea of trading Pence, who is more easily replaced than Wandy- the Astros have three potentially better OFs who have a chance to be here by 2011- and could still bring back a nice package of players if the Astros decide to focus more on contending after 2010. I realize it's not likely at all to happen (nor is it a new idea on this site), because of the marketing department's crush on Pence, but then again, Pence displaced a couple of former fan/ front office darlings, Burke, and to a lesser extent Luke Scott. So you never know.

I don't know if any of the 3 OFers are potentially better than Pence, just that Pedrique thinks they will be MLers. Shuck I believe to be only of value to someone as a CFer because he has no power. CF is not a need position. We'll have to see how the other two as they move out of that hitters' park and Steele has to stay healthy.

[juliogotay]

Pedrique Part II today with Lucas. Asked the same question again about players lower than AA to keep an eye on. Again talked about the three Lancaster OFers, added Clemens' name and the pitching rotation at Lexington as well as two Dominican pitchers that should challenge for a job in the next two years, Trinidad and Abad.

[Reuben]

I don't know if any of the 3 OFers are potentially better than Pence, just that Pedrique thinks they will be MLers. Shuck I believe to be only of value to someone as a CFer because he has no power. CF is not a need position. We'll have to see how the other two as they move out of that hitters' park and Steele has to stay healthy.

I don't know too much about Shuck, but I would argue that you can have a LFer or RFer with no power, as long as he does other things well, and provided you're getting enough power elsewhere in your lineup. I know it's very unlikely that all 3 will become stars or even regulars, but there's probably a pretty good chance that at least one will. Lee is signed through 2012 at $19 mil/year. Maybe they will trade him when his no-trade clause lapses, but I doubt it. Bourn has become a true leadoff hitter and an elite defensive CF. So that leaves Pence as a guy that you could maybe trade now for a haul, and the players you'd get might be making an impact by 2011 or 12, which is realistically the earliest that the team can probably contend again.

[Andyzipp]

I don't know too much about Shuck, but I would argue that you can have a LFer or RFer with no power, as long as he does other things well, and provided you're getting enough power elsewhere in your lineup. I know it's very unlikely that all 3 will become stars or even regulars, but there's probably a pretty good chance that at least one will. Lee is signed through 2012 at $19 mil/year. Maybe they will trade him when his no-trade clause lapses, but I doubt it. Bourn has become a true leadoff hitter and an elite defensive CF. So that leaves Pence as a guy that you could maybe trade now for a haul, and the players you'd get might be making an impact by 2011 or 12, which is realistically the earliest that the team can probably contend again.

Isn't Lee's no-trade about to become a limited no-trade?  Like after the WS?

[Russe]

I'm pretty sure it becomes partial after the 2010 season.

[Andyzipp]

I'm pretty sure it becomes partial after the 2010 season.

You may be right.  I can't remember, and don't care to look it up right now.

[austro]

You may be right.  I can't remember, and don't care to look it up right now.

Cot's says full no-trade from 2007-2010.

[Reuben]

Cot's says full no-trade from 2007-2010.

And then after the 2011 season, he'd have a full no-trade again through 5/10 rights. So they'll have a 1-year window to freely trade Carlos, although at that point he'd have 2 years/$38 mil left on the contract, and most likely only AL teams with DH vacancies interested, so in other words- probably not a ton of trade value. But Andy's got a point, that may be what they're thinking of doing, if Lee continues to get slower and one or more of the OF prospects excels next year in AA and/or AAA.

[juliogotay]

And then after the 2011 season, he'd have a full no-trade again through 5/10 rights. So they'll have a 1-year window to freely trade Carlos, although at that point he'd have 2 years/$38 mil left on the contract, and most likely only AL teams with DH vacancies interested, so in other words- probably not a ton of trade value. But Andy's got a point, that may be what they're thinking of doing, if Lee continues to get slower and one or more of the OF prospects excels next year in AA and/or AAA.

One of the Astros announcers was talking the other day about Lee inquiring of Gene Coleman IIRC about losing weight. He wanted to know what effect it had on power stats of others. Coleman pulled up numbers showing it did not preceed a power shortage e.g. Ryan Howard. Maybe Lee is serious about it although I don't think it would make much difference in his play defensively or otherwise.

[VirtualBob]

One of the Astros announcers was talking the other day about Lee inquiring of Gene Coleman IIRC about losing weight. He wanted to know what effect it had on power stats of others. Coleman pulled up numbers showing it did not preceed a power shortage e.g. Ryan Howard. Maybe Lee is serious about it although I don't think it would make much difference in his play defensively or otherwise.

It certainly would not hurt his "speed", and it might take some stress off the legs and improve durability (though that is not yet a problem for him).