Drayton

[strosrays]

Saw him interviewed by (I think) Patty Smith after the game yesterday.  She asked for his end-of-season 'report card' on the team, I believe she called it.

Not verbatim, but as I took it in essence McLane says the Astros came into the season anticipating one of their 'greatest years ever', and it looked for awhile as if it were materializing, too.  Why, at one point as late as May or June, we were only one game back of the Cardinals!

Then injuries and bad luck ('bad luck' apparently being a catch-all encompassing not only injuries (some of them fairly predictable), but also poor managing, team dissension, mediocre players regressing to their norm, etc.) set in, and the dream season sort of evaporated there after the All Star break.  And, yeah, we had to shit-can the embarrassment of a manager before it was all over, that's true; but still, it could have been a great year but for the 'bad luck.'  Not only that, but the team has a core (corps?) of great players on hand, and with a few minor off season adjustments/acquisitions, we should again expect the Astros to have one of their best seasons ever in 2010.

I assume this is just hucksterism on McLane's part.  He cannot possibly believe all this.  Or am I missing something?  I certainly don't rememeber thinking it was going to be a banner year coming out of spring training, or hearing/reading anyone else who did.  What eventually happened to the team seemed to be rather inevitable, both in hindsight and, as I recall, foresight; moreso than some onset of incredible and/or unexpected  bad luck.

Yeah, I am sure Drayton was just trying to keep the faithful focused.  It would scare me if he or anyone else in management actually believed what he was laying out there for Ms. Smith and the rest of us, especially if he/they believed it enough to base any off-season strategy on this sort of premise.

[MusicMan]

I assume this is just hucksterism on McLane's part.  He cannot possibly believe all this.  Or am I missing something?  I certainly don't rememeber thinking it was going to be a banner year coming out of spring training, or hearing/reading anyone else who did.  What eventually happened to the team seemed to be rather inevitable, both in hindsight and, as I recall, foresight; moreso than some onset of incredible and/or unexpected  bad luck.

Yeah, I am sure Drayton was just trying to keep the faithful focused.  It would scare me if he or anyone else in management actually believed what he was laying out there for Ms. Smith and the rest of us, especially if he/they believed it enough to base any off-season strategy on this sort of premise.

1.  Drayton does not understand baseball.  Still, and always.  He understands business, and is trying to sell tickets at a time he sees about 20K no-shows a game.

2.  Remember that the joke of a manager decreed this a 90-win team in spring training... you know, the ST where they couldn't win a game.

[Taras Bulba]

That's the thing that worries me a little--that Drayton may actually believe what he's saying.  And, that Ed is on the same page.  Don't think that is the case (especially with Wade) but when you don't make ANY moves before the trading deadline when your team is not a player, it's a *little bit* of a head scratcher.

[MusicMan]

when you don't make ANY moves before the trading deadline when your team is not a player, it's a *little bit* of a head scratcher.

You know that Padres team?  The one that traded Jake Peavy and actively entertained the thought of trading Adrian Gonzalez, their only legitimate position player?  They're one game behind the Astros.

[Astroholic]

Snake Oil Salesman!

[Jacksonian]

That's the thing that worries me a little--that Drayton may actually believe what he's saying.  And, that Ed is on the same page.  Don't think that is the case (especially with Wade) but when you don't make ANY moves before the trading deadline when your team is not a player, it's a *little bit* of a head scratcher.

That was on Drayton.

[David in Jackson]

You know that Padres team?  The one that traded Jake Peavy and actively entertained the thought of trading Adrian Gonzalez, their only legitimate position player?  They're one game behind the Astros.

Yes, but we got to see Tejada and Valverde for two months before they leave as free agents. (because we were "contending" for the wild card).

Maybe Drayton's plan for 2010 is a Biggio comeback.

[juliogotay]

Yes, but we got to see Tejada and Valverde for two months before they leave as free agents. (because we were "contending" for the wild card).

Maybe Drayton's plan for 2010 is a Biggio comeback.

The owner said publicly in ST that "they" (whomever that may be) thought they had one of their better teams. Did he believe that? I can easily believe he believed that but I can also envision him holding Cooper and whomever agreed this was a 90-win team accountable for that.

[Taras Bulba]

The owner said publicly in ST that "they" (whomever that may be) thought they had one of their better teams. Did he believe that? I can easily believe he believed that but I can also envision him holding Cooper and whomever agreed this was a 90-win team accountable for that.

On *paper* it had the potential of being a good team if everyone had a good season or if "they" think baseball is a 50-50 proposition between hitting and pitching, with fielding as an afterthought.  With three fifths of your rotation being Hampton, Ortiz, and Moehler success was a long shot.  Surely, Wade knew this and for Drayton to ignore it is highly distressing.

[Gizzmonic]

Someone asked him at the post-Cooper-dismissal press conference he regretted not providing the skipper with even a number 3 starter...he responded that it was the most expensive team ever fielded by the Astros and that they trusted the guys they signed (Hampton? Really?).

I hope he's just doing PR, because if he really thinks the team as constructed this year was headed for excellence, he's incapable of being objective about talent.

[Limey]

That's the thing that worries me a little--that Drayton may actually believe what he's saying.  And, that Ed is on the same page.  Don't think that is the case (especially with Wade) but when you don't make ANY moves before the trading deadline when your team is not a player, it's a *little bit* of a head scratcher.

I doubt he believes it.  The problem is that he believes that we believe it, and will therefore pony up for tickets, $4 water, $5 hot dogs and $9 beer without question.  It's actually quite insulting, even for AD readers.

[Reuben]

I doubt he believes it.  The problem is that he believes that we believe it, and will therefore pony up for tickets, $4 water, $5 hot dogs and $9 beer without question.  It's actually quite insulting, even for AD readers.

Well, I think maybe he believes that the average marginal fan (ie. those who like the team/baseball OK, but don't follow it that closely, but will go to the occasional game if they get excited about it) believes it. So what's really troubling is if
a) he's decided these are the segment of fans they need to work hardest to appeal to, and
b) he believes that this segment doesn't want any type of rebuilding effort (even a short-term-minded one), and that as long as the Astros have a few "stars", they'll keep coming to the games.

[Taras Bulba]

Well, I think maybe he believes that the average marginal fan (ie. those who like the team/baseball OK, but don't follow it that closely, but will go to the occasional game if they get excited about it) believes it. So what's really troubling is if
a) he's decided these are the segment of fans they need to work hardest to appeal to, and
b) he believes that this segment doesn't want any type of rebuilding effort (even a short-term-minded one), and that as long as the Astros have a few "stars", they'll keep coming to the games.

There's probably a lot of truth to this.

[Andyzipp]

Well, I think maybe he believes that the average marginal fan (ie. those who like the team/baseball OK, but don't follow it that closely, but will go to the occasional game if they get excited about it) believes it. So what's really troubling is if
a) he's decided these are the segment of fans they need to work hardest to appeal to, and
b) he believes that this segment doesn't want any type of rebuilding effort (even a short-term-minded one), and that as long as the Astros have a few "stars", they'll keep coming to the games.

Despite our desires for it to be less than true, baseball in general doesn't care about hard-core baseball fans.  They want families, businesses and anyone else inclined to spend their "entertainment" dollars.  Doesn't make Drayton a bad guy for marketing to those people.

[Mr. Happy]

Marketing the baseball experience as an entertainment product is increasingly divorced from planning for on-field success.

[MusicMan]

Doesn't make Drayton a bad guy for marketing to those people.

I honestly don't care whether he's a bad guy or not.  What IS relevant to me is how his actions impact the product on the field... and they appear to have nothing but negative potential.

[outlookdude]

The moral of this story is that you should never go to Las Vegas with Uncle D.

At the beginning of the season EVERY team has a chance.  Every player on every major league roster has had some major league success and might finally put it all together, had some minor league success that might translate well to the majors, or was once a star and might regain that form…..and if all the pieces fall into place the way we think that they could……

The Astros needed for Hampton to pitch consistently and stay injury free for the first time in 5 years, for Ortiz to pitch better than he has in the last 5 years, for Matsui to stay injury free for the first time in his career, for Pudge to play like he was 5 years younger, and to avoid any injuries to Oswalt, Berkman, and Lee because there is no one else available to fill those roles…..and much, much more.

I’m pretty sure Drayton wouldn’t sink $100M into lottery tickets with that type odds.

But, it wouldn’t surprise me if he tried to talk you into that investment if he stood to gain.

When things turn out to be just what the odds would have predicted it is difficult to justify calling it bad luck. I understand that if you have a product to sell it is counterproductive to tell people that it sucks. But, bad luck? “We had some tough breaks” is still a stretch, but I could live with that. Bad luck just pisses me off.

Can this team be better next year. Sure. But, only if someone at the top accepts responsibility and is willing to do what is necessary to correct the problems of the past. As a fan I hold out hope. But you won’t see me holding my breath, because you really can’t count on always rolling sevens.

I’m actually fine with the huckster marketing – as long as business is taken care of appropriately, and productively, in the off season. Market to the masses, and let them eat cake. But, this ship has taken on so much water that even the little kids are going to lose interest soon without some significant improvement.

[Limey]

I honestly don't care whether he's a bad guy or not.  What IS relevant to me is how his actions impact the product on the field... and they appear to have nothing but negative potential.

If he thinks enough people will swallow his BS, then doesn't need to properly address issues on the field.  Of course, it's quite a large leap of faith to assume that he will address these issues by trying to move forward, instead of by cutting costs and turning this team into the Houston Pirates.

[subnuclear]

Despite our desires for it to be less than true, baseball in general doesn't care about hard-core baseball fans.  They want families, businesses and anyone else inclined to spend their "entertainment" dollars.  Doesn't make Drayton a bad guy for marketing to those people.

Aren't those "entertainment" dollars more dependent on winning than the dollars from hardcore fans?

[Outlawscotty]

The moral of this story is that you should never go to Las Vegas with Uncle D.

18/1 for the NL pennant
40/1 for the World Series
1/2 Money in Drayton's pocket

[Andyzipp]

Aren't those "entertainment" dollars more dependent on winning than the dollars from hardcore fans?

I'd say that being in contention is all they have to be to draw.  The Astros were within a game of the division lead at then end of play on July 22nd.

Attendance wasn't dramatically off at that point. 

[HudsonHawk]

Aren't those "entertainment" dollars more dependent on winning than the dollars from hardcore fans?

The "hardcore" fans add relatively little to the bottom line.  Sure, we put up super-cool websites and whatnot, but it's the collective casual fan who puts the money in the coffers.  It always has been.  That's why they have a choo-choo, that's why they PA announcer has to sound like God, that's why they have the Minute Maid Squeeze Play, that's why they can get away with charging $9 for a beer.  If teams simply had the hardcore, knowledgeable fans, they wouldn't stay solvent for longer than 30 games.

[VirtualBob]

I...  It's actually quite insulting, even for AD readers.

Or at least it would be if they could read.

[MusicMan]

Or at least it would be if they could read.

Let's be realistic... it IS an internet message board, so some literacy is required.  They cannot, however, read without moving their lips.

[Reuben]

I'd say that being in contention is all they have to be to draw.  The Astros were within a game of the division lead at then end of play on July 22nd.

Attendance wasn't dramatically off at that point.  

But I'm sure he'd love to get back to the levels of 2004-06* if he could, and that means not just contending, but getting to the playoffs and doing well, on a somewhat regular basis.

So the question is, whether McLane actually believes he can get back to that level by staying the course and patching with older players year-by-year, or whether, as he seemed to be indicating in an interview with Justice a couple months back, he realizes they may need to take a step back for a year or so and blend in the youth in order to get back to that perennial powerhouse level.

* looking up the numbers, attendance was strangely still as good in 2007. I don't know how to explain that one, but the unavoidable conclusion based on the 2008-09 figures is that people are starting to lose interest.

[MusicMan]

* looking up the numbers, attendance was strangely still as good in 2007.

3000

[HudsonHawk]

Let's be realistic... it IS an internet message board, so some literacy is required.  They cannot, however, read without moving their lips.

Actually, "literate" sort of implies an ability to understand the written word in some generally acceptable or socially meaningful way.  I'm not sure all message boards qualify in that strict sense.

[Reuben]

3000

Ah, thanks for jogging my dumb brain. I knew it couldn't just be Carlos Lee and Woody Williams.

[Andyzipp]

Ah, thanks for jogging my dumb brain. I knew it couldn't just be Carlos Lee and Woody Williams.

That's Houston Native Woody Williams.

[Reuben]

That's Houston Native Woody Williams.

Was that the same year as Baylor Grad Jason Jennings? I forget.

[Andyzipp]

Was that the same year as Baylor Grad Jason Jennings? I forget.

Thought that was 2006.  I still remember thinking how awkward Drayton and Pam looked when Jennings kept getting pressed about how great it was returning to his home state and if it was a dream to be playing for the Astros.

"I grew up a Rangers fan."

[The Spleen]

Let's be realistic... it IS an internet message board, so some literacy is required.  They cannot, however, read without moving their lips.

The AD Morlocks don't "read and move their lips."
They actually lick the screen and decipher the pictures using the highly evolved photoreceptor cells on the surface of their tongues...

[Gizzmonic]

The "hardcore" fans add relatively little to the bottom line.  Sure, we put up super-cool websites and whatnot, but it's the collective casual fan who puts the money in the coffers.  It always has been.  That's why they have a choo-choo, that's why they PA announcer has to sound like God, that's why they have the Minute Maid Squeeze Play, that's why they can get away with charging $9 for a beer.  If teams simply had the hardcore, knowledgeable fans, they wouldn't stay solvent for longer than 30 games.

Yep, and we shouldn't thumb our nose too much at the people keeping our favorite team afloat.  Reminds me a little too much of music snobs who get upset when "their" favorite band gets too popular.  If you like their music, shouldn't you be glad they're getting more money for it?

[strosrays]

Let's be realistic... it IS an internet message board, so some literacy is required.  They cannot, however, read without moving their lips.

Go back and read Barzilla and then tell me how "literate" AD is.  Hell, the most lucid person on there is probably RyanED, spaces between his parentheses (and synapses) notwithstanding.  I picture Hulsey and Jas. Anderson inadvertantly drooling as they type.   

The "hardcore" fans add relatively little to the bottom line.  Sure, we put up super-cool websites and whatnot, but it's the collective casual fan who puts the money in the coffers.  It always has been.  That's why they have a choo-choo, that's why they PA announcer has to sound like God, that's why they have the Minute Maid Squeeze Play, that's why they can get away with charging $9 for a beer.  If teams simply had the hardcore, knowledgeable fans, they wouldn't stay solvent for longer than 30 games.

OK, but why did they have Junction Jack?

[HudsonHawk]

OK, but why did they have Junction Jack?

Someone has a "fur fetish".  I'm not gonna say who.

[ferret]

It's the concoursages that Mclane listens to, this has its drawbacks.  They say, "we need offense", so they sign Carlos Lee, who has over a hundred RBI again this year in spite of playing for the Astros.  "Yeah but he's slow". "We need flashy 2nd basemen with an entourage" the concoursages say, the Astros sign Matsui and JD has to say things like "Tejada is talking to Matsui, ...weeel he's communicating with Matsui".  Spend money they say, no!, now play rookies, now money, now rookies... now....  Genius websites do not have Mclanes' ear.  At least not any more than anyone else.  Justice had a blog recently about how Mclane reads all his mail.  All of it.  Consider that. The only hope for the non mouthbreathers, is that if somebody with access to the team pays attention to the site and conveys the concerns in a more direct way.  A reporter could do that for instance.  Jose de Jesus Ortiz has begun to incorporate his fan in the stands interviews in his reportage, a recent quote from the ubiquitous  "long-time season ticket holder", “I feel like a lot of them are mailing it in.”  Genius.   

[MRaup]

It's the concoursages that Mclane listens to, this has its drawbacks.  They say, "we need offense", so they sign Carlos Lee, who has over a hundred RBI “I feel like a lot of them are mailing it in.” 

Well, it's good to know SOMEONE is reading my series previews at least...

[Andyzipp]

"We need flashy 2nd basemen with an entourage" the concoursages say, the Astros sign Matsui and JD has to say things like "Tejada is talking to Matsui, ...weeel he's communicating with Matsui". 

Not to get in the way of a perfectly good rant, but Matsui was the third option at 2nd in that particular off-season.

[MusicMan]

Not to get in the way of a perfectly good rant, but Matsui was the third option at 2nd in that particular off-season.

He should have been further down the list.

[ferret]

Not to get in the way of a perfectly good rant, but Matsui was the third option at 2nd in that particular off-season.

None of the others came with entourages.

[David in Jackson]

Marketing the baseball experience as an entertainment product is increasingly divorced from planning for on-field success.

I disagree.  No amount of hucksterism cannot hide a lousy team.  The best way to draw casual fans is to win ballgames.  So, make a plan to win ballgames and plan for the long-term.  This team hasn't been thinking long-term, choosing to watch the draft, farm system and international talen pool dry up while running Bags and Biggio until the wheels came off and signing a few big stars.

[David in Jackson]

Was that the same year as Baylor Grad Jason Jennings? I forget.

Don't get me started on the Texas thing. 

[Noe]

I disagree.  No amount of hucksterism cannot hide a lousy team.  The best way to draw casual fans is to win ballgames.  So, make a plan to win ballgames and plan for the long-term.  This team hasn't been thinking long-term, choosing to watch the draft, farm system and international talen pool dry up while running Bags and Biggio until the wheels came off and signing a few big stars.

Build a winning team, put them on the field and watch how many fans come to the ballpark and not once complain about the beer cost.  Not. Once.  (Utopia, huh?)  The problem is that perhaps that doesn't really work that way.  I have no hard fast data to support this, but I would venture a guess that somewhere, somehow there is a ledger sheet that has the "break even" line for McLane already spelled out.

At 10K fans per night and 25% spending X amount per night, you're making a 150% profit on a team that holds the line at 90 million salary (with the added revenue cost, such as travel, hotel, spending money, etc.).  That is just attendance profitability reports, there are other margins to consider, such as merchandising versus marketing cost, ad revenue sharing and broadcast rights profits versus cost of logistics (stadium maintenance, employee salaries, etc).  It's all where the ledger sheet tells McLane that his profit line fits.  Nowhere, I'm speculating, is a ledger entry item that says "winning team".

The "winning team" aspect is really more of an ego stroke line item (the cost of being the owner with a championship ballclub versus your profit margin). McLane doesn't have a big enough stake in baseball for ego sake as say a Tom Hicks did (and lived to regret it because spending because of ego stroke usually means you threw your money away for nuttin').

[JimR]

He should have been further down the list.

another statement of yours with which i disagree

[Arky Vaughan]

If he thinks enough people will swallow his BS, then doesn't need to properly address issues on the field.

See, e.g., CHI, N, for the last 100+ years.

[Arky Vaughan]

Build a winning team, put them on the field and watch how many fans come to the ballpark and not once complain about the beer cost.  Not. Once.  (Utopia, huh?)  The problem is that perhaps that doesn't really work that way.  I have no hard fast data to support this, but I would venture a guess that somewhere, somehow there is a ledger sheet that has the "break even" line for McLane already spelled out.

At 10K fans per night and 25% spending X amount per night, you're making a 150% profit on a team that holds the line at 90 million salary (with the added revenue cost, such as travel, hotel, spending money, etc.).  That is just attendance profitability reports, there are other margins to consider, such as merchandising versus marketing cost, ad revenue sharing and broadcast rights profits versus cost of logistics (stadium maintenance, employee salaries, etc).  It's all where the ledger sheet tells McLane that his profit line fits.  Nowhere, I'm speculating, is a ledger entry item that says "winning team".

The "winning team" aspect is really more of an ego stroke line item (the cost of being the owner with a championship ballclub versus your profit margin). McLane doesn't have a big enough stake in baseball for ego sake as say a Tom Hicks did (and lived to regret it because spending because of ego stroke usually means you threw your money away for nuttin').

Some revenue, like local broadcasting and the shared national broadcasting and licensing from the league, is probably pretty well known in advance. They also must know how much on average they expect to earn, gate plus concessions, per fan. So the variable is attendance. They also should have a firm handle on costs, which is mostly payroll plus overhead. Indeed, I would be surprised if they were not aware of almost exactly how many AIS they need to break even.

The objective then is to spend the minimum amount on payroll necessary to get as far over that AIS target as possible.

[Reuben]

Some revenue, like local broadcasting and the shared national broadcasting and licensing from the league, is probably pretty well known in advance. They also must know how much on average they expect to earn, gate plus concessions, per fan. So the variable is attendance. They also should have a firm handle on costs, which is mostly payroll plus overhead. Indeed, I would be surprised if they were not aware of almost exactly how many AIS they need to break even.

The objective then is to spend the minimum amount on payroll necessary to get as far over that AIS target as possible.

Except their payroll has been pretty high for a few years now. If Drayton really only wanted to do better than break even, he could spend about half what he does now and the attendance + revenue sharing would probably still cover their costs. I think Drayton does want to win and sees the financial benefits of a winning club; he's willing to spend for that within reason (signing Carlos Lee was a move geared towards winning games moreso than getting AIS to see that player specifically, IMO). What's less clear is whether he's willing to take a step back for a year or two in order to better reload the system - taking an attendance hit in the short term in order to maximize it in the longer term.

[jbm]

I doubt Drayton would ever "step back" for a few years for a payday down the road.  I assume he feels that would erode the brand, and the brand is where the long-term value resides.  He is most certainly right in this regard. 

Take the Marlins for instance, they have arguably been much more successful on the field than the Astros over the last decade, but their constant trading of big names has created no fan identification/brand.  A superior win/loss strategy doesn't necessarily maximize economic value.

[MusicMan]

another statement of yours with which i disagree

I can understand the reasoning at the time, and I disagreed with it at the time.

At this point, he brings nothing to the table at the position, offensively or defensively.  He's a $5.5M player than is entirely interchangeable with Kepp and Maysonet, in my view.

[juliogotay]

I can understand the reasoning at the time, and I disagreed with it at the time.

At this point, he brings nothing to the table at the position, offensively or defensively.  He's a $5.5M player than is entirely interchangeable with Kepp and Maysonet, in my view.

There is nothing wrong with Matsui defensively. His hitting is very streaky which surprises me for someone with seemingly such good bat control. I have been very disappointed with his OBA.

[MusicMan]

He's average defensively.  Which would be fine if he wwere a good hitter.  And his hitting would be fine if he were a real asset defensively.  But he's neither.

[JimR]

I can understand the reasoning at the time, and I disagreed with it at the time.

At this point, he brings nothing to the table at the position, offensively or defensively.  He's a $5.5M player than is entirely interchangeable with Kepp and Maysonet, in my view.

much better total player than either of them, imo. you're talking money, which i leave to the accountants.

[MusicMan]

you're talking money, which i leave to the accountants.

Eaxctly.  Have we discussed the latest changes under IRC 457A?

[VirtualBob]

Eaxctly.  Have we discussed the latest changes under IRC 457A?

need.
caffeine.

[Reuben]

I doubt Drayton would ever "step back" for a few years for a payday down the road.  I assume he feels that would erode the brand, and the brand is where the long-term value resides.  He is most certainly right in this regard. 

Take the Marlins for instance, they have arguably been much more successful on the field than the Astros over the last decade, but their constant trading of big names has created no fan identification/brand.  A superior win/loss strategy doesn't necessarily maximize economic value.

The Marlins are a whole different ball of wax. They never really had the local interest to begin with. The Astros have a much more solid base. If they become a perennial winner again like 1997-2005, the fans will most certainly come back and the "brand" will only be enhanced, ie. higher value if and when Drayton eventually decides to sell the franchise. This is all in my humble opinion of course, I really don't know shit about business so I'm not quite sure why I'm posting so much in this thread...