Much has been said around here about the Oswalt Inning and it's very true. Yesterday, in the post-game analysis, I heard Jimmy D say that pretty much this season, Oswalt has been hurt by the one inning in his outings where nothing goes right. Looks like many others are starting to notice what has been apparent here for a while.
So is Oswalt now prone to being a so-so starter in this league because his talent is not what it once was?
That's a loaded question and truth be told, it is about many facets coming together for Oswalt that is cause for what we see now in his game as opposed to what was once when the kid made his splash into the MLB. What we'll talk about is approach, then stuff, then adjustments and see if we can shed a little light into Roy Oswalt's game and perhaps find a light at the end of the tunnel, at least in terms of the Oswalt Inning. Take away the OI and you probably still have a premiere pitcher on your hands. But is it clear cut that the OI can be taken away? What is to say that not only are we looking at a pattern of more and more OI's, but the beginning of a once premiere pitcher becoming average? Let's take a look.
Approach
Far too often we've heard that what makes Roy Oswalt successful is his aggressive approach to pitching. He does not back down to anyone and will go right after a hitter. At no time was it more apparent than the day Oswalt was asked to rescue the Houston Astros from a disaster of a game five in the NLCS and go and pitch the game of his life in St. Louis. Oswalt used a four seamer that was unhittable along with a bulldog tenacity on each and every Co-ard hitter. Pujols, dead man. Edmonds, dead man. All were in Oswalt's radar that day and he went right after them. His four seamer was hitting pretty much 96 on the gun and that made his off-speed stuff and his sinker that much more effective. All the St. Louis hitters were hitting from the back of their heels so it was pretty much game over in game six and thus the Astros went on to appear in the first World Series in the team's history. Oh, and Oswalt got a tractor out of the deal too. There is no denying that Oswalt has this approach well in place when it comes to being a winning pitcher. It's kill or be killed for Oswalt.
Stuff
For much of the time that I saw Oswalt pitch in AA, AAA and in the majors, his well located fastball was the key to his arsenal of stuff. At the crux of his stuff was the four seamer, often used to strikeout a hitter. In AA, he was taught the sinker so he can be an economy pitcher and last a little longer in his career. Whispers of his smallish size made the idea of learning a sinker and shelving the four seamer or using is sparringly a good thing for all concerned. So Oswalt went from pitching off his four seamer to pitching off his sinker inside and outside. If his two seam sinker is working and hitting the black, Oswalt would get more groundball outs and enjoy an easier time out on the hill. Lastly, it was his curveball that made his young career something to talk about because if you take a guy who can throw a four seamer at 96 consistently and then mix in a curveball that drops all the way down to 80 mph, that is a wicked 1-2 punch in your arsenal. Thus all the strikeouts. A sinker, however, is usually hitting 92-93 and requires location. While the idea is still the same, it does require the pitcher to have a little more accuracy and have more control of the strikezone. In essence, the difference is being a "pitcher" instead of a "thrower". So Oswalt started to adjust his arsenal to include a slider that stays true in the strikezone and a changeup that he never really mastered. Some were of the opinion that his curveball came out of his hand like a changeup any way, meaning he had the same arm action of a fastball that this is what made the curveball work as a changeup for Roy and not so much that it was a good curveball. So now, when you think of Roy Oswalt, you think of sinker/slider pitcher in the strikezone (sinker being an inside and outside the black pitch) and a curveball that is supposed to act like a changeup to fool the hitter into swinging. The four seamer, the once epicenter of his arsenal is almost non-existent, to my knowledge making rare appearances here and there but never really being the focus of his game since that game six in the 2005 NLCS.
Adjustments
Seems odd to have to talk about adjustments instead of execution when it comes to Roy Oswalt. I'm the first to admit that I didn't think we'd have this sort of conversation about the guy. Something Coach said earlier in response to the whispers that were reported about Roy Oswalt no longer being regarded as a premiere pitcher in the NL (as was said to a National Reporter - Jason Stark - by a NL GM). Coach said he felt the same way about Oswalt. I've been watching a few more of his starts, as sporadic as they've come due to weather and Cooper's handling of pitchers and want to present what I believe is the adjustments Roy must make. There, I've said it, in order to be the premiere pitcher on this team (and I believe he still can be), Roy must adjust his game a little more.
So where does the adjustment start?
Approach
Okay, so we're back here and not at learning a new pitch, throwing underhand or side arm or even sacrificing more to Jobu or Scott Baio. Simply put, I believe that the Oswalt Inning is an indicator to Roy and everyone else that his stuff is good enough to be an elite pitcher, but he must act and approach the game as a pitcher and not a hurler. His bulldog act was great when the four seamer was on and also on occasion he could use the four seamer right around the chin of a hitter or two, just to keep them uncomfortable. If you notice the game that Grienke in Kansas City is employing now, it is the four seamer as the focus, occasionally throwing hard up and in to keep hitters from digging in and then throwing some wicked offspeed stuff, like a little looping curveball or slider that never really reaches homeplate. That was Oswalt at one time and the mentality that one must have to pitch that way is to go after hitters. So why can't Oswalt do that any more or at minimum pick and choose when he'll do that? Because he has not shown the ability to hit the radar gun at 96 consistently any more. Guys who hit the gun at 92 consistently have to be "pitchers" and the ones that do, are exceptional and make a great Hall of Fame career out of it. Oswalt needs to embrace a new approach to his game rather than think all he needs to do is go right after hitter after hitter and think what worked before will work again. Hitters are spitting on his off-speed stuff because most of them know now it's not a strike. So if all they're looking for in any given situation is a fastball, either inside or outside, they're going to hit it. And thus how Oswalt Innings occur, hitters knowing that they will rely on Oswalt to use his bulldog approach in a tight situation and that means I'm going to see fastballs. So they're ready.
If Oswalt would work on his approach to pitching more, he can become a great pitcher in this league again. What does he need to do to change? For one thing, he needs to stop being stubborn and for another perhaps reach out to a catcher or two, maybe even a former teammate like Brad Ausmus who can teach him a little bit about being a pitcher. It is said that Drinking Dave Duncan can take any pitcher who can consistently throw 92 mph and make him into a better pitcher by teaching him situations and how to setup the hitter. That and center the focus of his arsenal around a sinker. Oswalt needs that to regain his status and be a pitcher who has less and less Oswalt Innings.
If not, then surely what Roy said was true... he doesn't believe he'll stick around baseball beyond this contract and that means much like Hunter Pence is a maturing out of a grip it and rip it hitter, Oswalt won't mature out of a "here it is, try and hit it" hurler.
