Yes, I know what BA wrote. I've written summaries of scouts' opinions as well so I know that many scouts did not share that one scout's opinion of Pence's defense.
The reality is that when Pence was drafted in 2004 he was considered a liability in left field. However, it is a testament to his hard work that he became at least a non-liability. In fact in 2005 he worked to improve his defense to the point that he was Corpus Christi's regular starting right fielder in 2006 for the entire year. Scouts then, prior to the AFL stint, saw that he could at least play the position and not embarrass himself.
Many scouts though did not and still do not believe he has the arm of a major league right fielder. Too, many do not believe in Pence as a versatile outfielder. The scout BA quotes implies Pence could be an everyday centerfielder. I know that are a number of scouts who directly dispute that. Pence has the speed to make up for his difficulty reading the ball. That generally doesn't hurt him in right. It did hurt him in center and that's one big reason he didn't stay in center.
And the reality is that the scout that talked to Baseball America did not say "everyday" when he spoke about CF. He said "everyday" in terms of RF (which what the Astros are doing right now). Here is the quote again:
"For me, he can play all three spots, with enough arm strength and power to be a legitimate
everyday right fielder. But he's also showed enough burst and range to play center
if you need him there."
Realize what scouts say is precisely what they mean: Pence can occasionally slip over to CF, just like occasionally Darrin Erstad can play CF. But to make a huge leap in logic that you can, for instance, trade Michael Bourn, move Darin Erstad to CF, trade Carlos Lee, move Hunter Pence to LF, move Lance Berkman to RF and then sign Adam Dunn to play 1st (as a for instance) is the type of logic being applied here. That is fanta-crap type of thinking, or Todd the Bod (whichever comes first). But now it's being done in retrospect with Luke Scott, who unless he was going to play LF or DH (and Houston does not have a DH position), he was going to be a bench player for his tenure here. Also, realize that Luke Scott was only a passable LF in the same way Carlos Lee is passable. But Luke Scott will never be the same hitter that Carlos Lee is so it would be dumb to think that you would want Scott in left as opposed to Carlos Lee.
Scott was not going to replace Lee. Scott was not going to replace Pence and to suggest a Lee, Pence, Scott outfield is to suggest not having defense in the outfield for an entire season. And that is how74 win seasons happen.
This is all crazy talk. Did no one, I mean *NO ONE* listen to Tal Smith and Cecil Cooper (before Ed Wade joined the club) when they took over for the fired Purpura and Garner? The number 1 issue of moving Houston back into a better club was "speed". If anyone thinks they were talking about stealing bases, they were wrong. Defense was getting woeful by the minute under Purpura and that is why Tal Smith agreed with letting him go. Ed Wade was hired because he understood where Smith wanted to go with this club and made the moves appropriate for the short-term goals and with Bobby Heck, the long term goals.
Paying just a little more attention to what the team is doing can really help keep anyone from thinking they actually know how to evaluate a trade or series of trades.
