So much for a good start?

[juliogotay]

Everything could be different in a week but I was hoping for a much better start to the season. Players and manangers change but the Astros seem to be stuck in bad starts for the better part of a decade now. I have no idea why. Any theories?

[Mr. Happy]

Everything could be different in a week but I was hoping for a much better start to the season. Players and manangers change but the Astros seem to be stuck in bad starts for the better part of a decade now. I have no idea why. Any theories?

Records for the past ten years for Months of March, April and May, with final records in parentheses

1999 29-20 (97-65)
2000 19-33 (72-90)
2001 26-25 (93-69)
2002 24-29 (84-78)
2003 29-27 (87-75)
2004 27-23 (92-70)
2005 19-32 (89-73)
2006 27-27 (82-80)
2007 22-31 (73-89)
2008 30-27 (86-75)

[juliogotay]

Records for the past ten years for Months of March, April and May, with final records in parentheses

1999 29-20 (97-65)
2000 19-33 (72-90)
2001 26-25 (93-69)
2002 24-29 (84-78)
2003 29-27 (87-75)
2004 27-23 (92-70)
2005 19-32 (89-73)
2006 27-27 (82-80)
2007 22-31 (73-89)
2008 30-27 (86-75)

So for the past ten seasons Houston wins at a .479 clip through May and at a .559 clip for the balance.
A .479 clip equates to 77 wins over a 162 game season while a .559% equates to 91 wins out of 162.

[Mr. Happy]

I was simply testing your theory, which I suspected was more based on feeling than fact. That's what I found.

[juliogotay]

I was simply testing your theory, which I suspected was more based on feeling than fact. That's what I found.

No, I appreciate the numbers you posted. It wasn't as bad as I thought but defintely a pattern. there was alot of talk about the team getting off to a better start this year as the schedule gets tougher later. I just can't figure out why this is the case and was interested in some suggestions as to why.

[Filo]

Who cares about 99-07?  The 08 and 09 teams are with a completely different set of players

[Mr. Happy]

No, I appreciate the numbers you posted. It wasn't as bad as I thought but defintely a pattern. there was alot of talk about the team getting off to a better start this year as the schedule gets tougher later. I just can't figure out why this is the case and was interested in some suggestions as to why.

I was interested in the numbers too. As far as a reason for the slow starts, I think that it depends upon the season. This year, I think that we're just not good.

[Mr. Happy]

Who cares about 99-07?  The 08 and 09 teams are with a completely different set of players

Fuck off. You obviously are too dense to figure out why I ran the numbers.

[JimR]

Get the fuck out of here, filo.

[juliogotay]

Who cares about 99-07?  The 08 and 09 teams are with a completely different set of players

Which is why I wrote that players and managers change but the slow starts remain. Dumbass.

[TheWizard]

Who cares about 99-07?  The 08 and 09 teams are with a completely different set of players

Who cares about Filo?

[AtascAstro]

WARNING:  Justice blog quote below - I'm not gonna link it (you know where to find it if you want it)!

First, I'd sign Cecil Cooper to a two-year extension. Asking an inexperienced manager to work a lame-duck season is asinine.

There's no way he should be fired. Maybe he's not the second coming of Tony La Russa, but based on the club's performance last season, he deserves an extension.

...

To ask Cecil Cooper to take the fall for all the foolishness Ed Wade and Drayton McLane have done would be silly.

Figured I'd run by the chron to see what the monkeys think of our Astros so far.  I got what I deserved.  Apparently poo flinging is still very much en vougue with our genetic cousins.  While it isn't entirely surprising to see a call for an extension for Cooper paired with the deification of .093, the overall sentiment is very, very disturbing.  If/when Cooper takes the fall for the underperformance of the team, arguements are already in place that it is undeserved and that he wasn't given a chance.

If he is released anytime before the season is lost then you can gurantee a media circus (self-serving though it may be).  I think we are stuck with him for the remainder of the season, better or worse.

[MRaup]

WARNING:  Justice blog quote below - I'm not gonna link it (you know where to find it if you want it)!

Figured I'd run by the chron to see what the monkeys think of our Astros so far.  I got what I deserved.  Apparently poo flinging is still very much en vougue with our genetic cousins.  While it isn't entirely surprising to see a call for an extension for Cooper paired with the deification of .093, the overall sentiment is very, very disturbing.  If/when Cooper takes the fall for the underperformance of the team, arguements are already in place that it is undeserved and that he wasn't given a chance.

If he is released anytime before the season is lost then you can gurantee a media circus (self-serving though it may be).  I think we are stuck with him for the remainder of the season, better or worse.

I don't.

If the lack of effort this team is showing persists, Cooper will be out the door in less than a month.

[Limey]

If the lack of effort this team is showing persists, Cooper will be out the door in less than a month.

The line-up gorvelling and in-game decisions that make one pine for the days when Dierker was managing the Astros through the playoffs, don't help.

[AtascAstro]

I don't.

If the lack of effort this team is showing persists, Cooper will be out the door in less than a month.

Hope you are right and I am wrong.

[Andyzipp]

The line-up gorvelling and in-game decisions that make one pine for the days when Dierker was managing the Astros through the playoffs, don't help.

Dierker is available.  Just sayin'.

[Limey]

Dierker is available.  Just sayin'.

And the Astros have a veteran-heavy roster...

[Gizzmonic]

Dierker is available.  Just sayin'.

What's Hal Lanier doing these days?

[Andyzipp]

What's Hal Lanier doing these days?

Playing golf with Terry Collins.  Why do you ask?

[Limey]

Playing golf with Terry Collins.  Why do you ask?

Dear Mr. McLane,

Please do not turn over any rocks for the next few weeks.  I'd hate for you to get unlucky and find Bobby Valentine under one.

Very truly yours,

Limey

[juliogotay]

Dear Mr. McLane,

Please do not turn over any rocks for the next few weeks.  I'd hate for you to get unlucky and find Bobby Valentine under one.

Very truly yours,

Limey

I really don't think we want Valentine.

[Bench]

Dear Mr. McLane,

Please do not turn over any rocks for the next few weeks.  I'd hate for you to get unlucky and find Bobby Valentine under one.

Very truly yours,

Limey

While I personally believe that MLB is a more entertaining place with Bobby V in it, keep him far, far away from the MMPUS first base dugout. 

[Reuben]

I think someone mentioned Ed Yost in one of the Void post-Coop day-dreams... from what little I know of him, he seems like he'd fit pretty well in Houston.

[Andyzipp]

I think someone mentioned Ed Yost in one of the Void post-Coop day-dreams... from what little I know of him, he seems like he'd fit pretty well in Houston.

So would/did Phil Garner.

[Clark in Denver]

Kind of makes you want go punch everyone who booed Phil in front of Drayton right in the gut.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Kind of makes you want go punch everyone who booed Phil in front of Drayton right in the gut.

You mean you didn't feel that way already?  That ranks right below punching Pam in the head for all the "baseball decisions" she's influenced. 

(in all seriousness, I am neither condoning nor advocating violence against anyone.... other than Pam)

[Reuben]

So would/did Phil Garner.

[fingers crossed]Maybe Scrap Iron can be Drayton's Billy Martin.[/fingers crossed]

[Gizzmonic]

Hey, Cito Gaston is back.  Scrap Iron is my favorite Astros manager of all time, and he was at that 10th anniversary celebration so there must be at least cordial relations, right?

[matadorph]

I'll always have a soft spot for Phil. Watching Phil celebrate on the field with Carol Garner after Burke's homer from my seat at MMPUS is a memory I'll never forget. Class act all the way.

[Bench]

I think someone mentioned Ed Yost in one of the Void post-Coop day-dreams... from what little I know of him, he seems like he'd fit pretty well in Houston.

At some point, maybe the team should look elsewhere than the Brewers for their managerial candidates.

[headhunter]

So would/did Phil Garner.

Garner's my favorite ex-manager and I'd love to have him back on the bench, and while we're retreading it would be fun to have Dierker back in the booth. But most of all, the Hun upstairs.  

[Phil_in_CS]

A point a lot of people seem to miss is that in this highly competitive game, the quality managers are already under contract managing somewhere. The guys who are sitting around available generally have a reason they are sitting around available.

... I kept my avatar of Phil Garner, and hopefully the Billy Martin analogy will pan out ...

[ragarm]

In this politically correct world we live in I think Uncle Drayton will be slow to pull the trigger. But I think the giggling little girl antics of his manager will soon loosen that trigger. I hope so anyway. To keep things pc maybe they can catch fire from within and try out Dave Clark, he managed in the minors. He did a good job in the minors winning.

[Limey]

In this politically correct world we live in I think Uncle Drayton will be slow to pull the trigger. But I think the giggling little girl antics of his manager will soon loosen that trigger. I hope so anyway. To keep things pc maybe they can catch fire from within and try out Dave Clark, he managed in the minors. He did a good job in the minors winning.

At this point, I'd take Dave Clark batting clean-up.

[ragarm]

no doudt,and Cheo batting 5th.

[Russe]

How about Manny Acta? I think he's on the last year of his deal with the Nats. Granted, he doesn't have much of a track record, but you can't expect too much from him with the pitching staff he's been saddled with.

[Noe]

In this politically correct world we live in I think Uncle Drayton will be slow to pull the trigger. But I think the giggling little girl antics of his manager will soon loosen that trigger. I hope so anyway. To keep things pc maybe they can catch fire from within and try out Dave Clark, he managed in the minors. He did a good job in the minors winning.

I hear this argument exposed quite a bit: that PC will prevent action on the part of the GM and/or owner.  I understand this argument because when guys like Joe Morgan keep bringing up the race card when it comes to managers and the Commish tells the owners to make a concerted effort to interview more managerial candidates that are African American, then it becomes part of the conscience of the league.  However, Willy Randolph was fired when he lost his clubhouse and that is the only thing that will make Cooper's tenure shortlived.

Not PC.
Not weird lineups.
Not duplicity.
Not talking to the media too much.
Not talking to the media too little.

What makes a manager a member of the unemployed line is losing the clubhouse.  I think that is what one needs to look for in the coming months, will this team of veterans basically not perform for Cooper because they do not trust he knows what he's doing?  If the answer seems obvious, nothing in the horizon is forthcoming to make this team better... it will get worse before it gets better when a team of veterans no longer believe in the manager.  It is incumbent upon WadeSmith to act and the owner probably won't step in and say "No, you cannot fire an African-American and bring a PC nightmare upon us".  I highly doubt anyone would think that way unless Joe Morgan decides to opine that that is eggszactly what the Astros are doing.  In which case, he'd be wrong.  Again.

Want to know some irony though: Jimah Williams and Phil Garner never lost the clubhouse, in fact they were well respected by a majority of the veterans on the team.  What made them casualties is the owners penchant for listening to fans he met on the concourse walk-way.  Neither man ever had a chance once the boos were eminating from the great unwashed.

[MusicMan]

What makes a manager a member of the unemployed line is losing the clubhouse.  I think that is what one needs to look for in the coming months, will this team of veterans basically not perform for Cooper because they do not trust he knows what he's doing?  If the answer seems obvious, nothing in the horizon is forthcoming to make this team better... it will get worse before it gets better when a team of veterans no longer believe in the manager.

Want to know some irony though: Jimah Williams and Phil Garner never lost the clubhouse, in fact they were well respected by a majority of the veterans on the team.  What made them casualties is the owners penchant for listening to fans he met on the concourse walk-way.  Neither man ever had a chance once the boos were eminating from the great unwashed.

I'm not going to say you've contradicted yourself, but *generally* managers are fired when they lose the clubhouse; Astro managers are fired when Drayton thinks he's going to lose $$$.

Garner: boos at Bagwell's jersey ceremony
Jimy: boos at the ASG
Dierker: boos in the playoffs

Drayton may externally ask "What have you done to be a champion today?", but internally, it's "What have you done to put AIS today?"

[ragarm]

I agree with you Noe, but I think Cooper is losing the clubhouse.

[Noe]

I'm not going to say you've contradicted yourself, but *generally* managers are fired when they lose the clubhouse; Astro managers are fired when Drayton thinks he's going to lose $$$.

Garner: boos at Bagwell's jersey ceremony
Jimy: boos at the ASG
Dierker: boos in the playoffs

Drayton may externally ask "What have you done to be a champion today?", but internally, it's "What have you done to put AIS today?"

Well yeah, that is what I meant:

1. WadeSmith can and will fire a manager who loses the clubhouse (baseball ops 101)
2. Drayton will fire someone when the gate receipts seem to be taking a direct hit by the dislike of the manager.

My point is that PC will not play a part in either scenario much (except maybe a little in one of them).  If Cooper loses the clubhouse, it will be as well known as when Willy Randolph did and thus generally accepted as part of Baseball 101.  If Cooper loses his job because the boos are ringing in Drayton ears, then the likelihood that Joe Morgan or someone else will claim some sort of racial motive is more in place, but not necessarily true.  Why?  Because all one has to do is point to Garner and Williams to show that Drayton fires because of the color of green.  Period.

(BTW - Garner was not booed at the Bagwell ceremony, Purpura was.  Garner was shocked he was fired and the reason some said was in general he did not get favorable remarks made about him at the concourse area by fans.  No, I'm not kidding.)

[Noe]

I agree with you Noe, but I think Cooper is losing the clubhouse.

There seems to be some evidence of it, but it won't be so clear until right around Memorial Day to anyone. 

[Limey]

There seems to be some evidence of it, but it won't be so clear until right around Memorial Day to anyone. 

Once it becomes obvious, the whole PC issue (not that I accept that there should be one), goes away.  Only the players are racist at that point, not the management.

[juliogotay]

Hey, Cito Gaston is back.  Scrap Iron is my favorite Astros manager of all time, and he was at that 10th anniversary celebration so there must be at least cordial relations, right?

I suspect Wade has a short list of managerial candidates right now. Probably none are from within the Astros organization. Wade has shown a proclivity to bring new blood into the organization from outside of it. At least in scouting he did so.

[JimR]

In this politically correct world we live in I think Uncle Drayton will be slow to pull the trigger. But I think the giggling little girl antics of his manager will soon loosen that trigger. I hope so anyway. To keep things pc maybe they can catch fire from within and try out Dave Clark, he managed in the minors. He did a good job in the minors winning.

oh, really? you must not be counting RR last year.

[Noe]

oh, really? you must not be counting RR last year.

Yeah, the idea of being PC just to get rid of Cooper is not really one I would think is supported nor strategic in the minds of anyone right now, especially the Astros.  If they get rid of Coop, and it's a long way from happening (iffin you ask me), they will have solid reasons to do so and walk away from the situation making decisions based on where WadeSmith wants to go next.

Pravata posted a link to a "GM, Manager and Players" close door meeting yesterday so it is significant that Ed Wade is involved.  It's on the players right now and how they respond to the challenge will tell if they just don't believe in Coop or not.  It's one thing to start off slow, it's another to say to oneself "Why am I batting X in the lineup?" and then start to question the sanity of the manager.  Also why a manager wants you to do Y or Z when it's not your strength and you don't really think you can help the club win by being asked to do something that is not your forte.  An example may be Russ Ortiz being asked to be a long man for two weeks.  That is just a small example, but if you confuse your players by putting them in a role they aren't comfortable with, the performance will usually suffer.

And you'll lose their respect.  And then you'll lose your job.

[ragarm]

oh, really? you must not be counting RR last year.

Nope i was talking about his managing overall. He won South Atlantic League Championship in Pirates organization and '06 Texas League with the Hooks. I hope the Astros can straighten this thing out and do not have to make a change. Drayton is going to look to hire someone that is on the cheap and Clark is there and might get a look as an interim. Just a thought.

[JimR]

Nope i was talking about his managing overall. He won South Atlantic League Championship in Pirates organization and '06 Texas League with the Hooks. I hope the Astros can straighten this thing out and do not have to make a change. Drayton is going to look to hire someone that is on the cheap and Clark is there and might get a look as an interim. Just a thought.

i do not disagree.

[Bench]

In this politically correct world we live in I think Uncle Drayton will be slow to pull the trigger. But I think the giggling little girl antics of his manager will soon loosen that trigger. I hope so anyway. To keep things pc maybe they can catch fire from within and try out Dave Clark, he managed in the minors. He did a good job in the minors winning.

I doubt pc has anything to do with it.

[geezerdonk]

Dear Mr. McLane,

Please do not turn over any rocks for the next few weeks.  I'd hate for you to get unlucky and find Bobby Valentine under one.

Very truly yours,

Limey

Pontius Pilate. OK.
Pol Pot. Fine.
Bobby Valentine. Never.

[HudsonHawk]

Nope i was talking about his managing overall. He won South Atlantic League Championship in Pirates organization and '06 Texas League with the Hooks. I hope the Astros can straighten this thing out and do not have to make a change. Drayton is going to look to hire someone that is on the cheap and Clark is there and might get a look as an interim. Just a thought.

What makes you think that Drayton will look for someone on the cheap?

[ragarm]

Poor economy.

[Ty in Tampa]

Poor economy.

Brilliant.

[ragarm]

Thank you , just doing my part.

[strosrays]

Brilliant.

Has anyone mentioned yet if the busted (bursted?) real estate bubble has gone so far as to effect ranch prices?  Because, if so, I think that should be taken into account.  For something.

[Reuben]

Ken Rosenthal speculates that Coop could be gone soon, and makes a WAG that Buck Showalter could be on the short list. He also thinks Berry could be a casualty.

Cooper is a ready scapegoat; McLane allowed him to enter the final year of his contract without offering him an extension. The Astros' veterans do not care for Cooper, and the team's 1-6 start — following its 1-16-3 start in spring training — points to a lack of preparation.

[geezerdonk]

With Valentine and Showalter in the conversation, Cooper is looking good - real good.

[matadorph]

The Astros lack an obvious in-house replacement for Cooper. Buck Showalter, highly detail-oriented, might be the perfect choice to set the team on the right course. But he might not want to work for McLane.

Who would?

The Astros' 86-75 record last season was an illusion; the team was outscored by 31 runs. Payroll considerations forced the team to part with left-hander Randy Wolf and third baseman Ty Wigginton. The late signing of free-agent catcher Ivan Rodriguez was McLane's way of saying, "Look, fans, we're trying!"

Say this for the Astros — they routinely start poorly, then charge. Firing Cooper would not be unreasonable, particularly if McLane replaced him with someone like Showalter. But the owner is sadly mistaken if he thinks his team is ready to contend.

Those 86 wins were real, not an illusion. Go fuck yourself, Ken.

[Mr. Happy]

With Valentine and Showalter in the conversation, Cooper is looking good - real good.

No shit. I don't think that either of those guys would get a shot though. Rosenthal's just an extensions of both guys' PR men.

[pravata]

Those 86 wins were real, not an illusion. Go fuck yourself, Ken.

"... the realistic possibility that Cecil Cooper will be the first manager fired."

translating the rest into SnS English
 
various typing exercises, ... the hitting coach will be fired even though the best hitters are veterans and will come around, but even if they do, the Astros "will be in trouble" because the Astros have no pitching, which oddly, firing the hitting coach did not solve.

Astros signed Rodriguez to show the fans they're trying, but they couldn't really try because of payroll considerations in spite of the fact that the Astros are one of the 30% of teams that raised their payroll.

Blah blah reality confuses and frightens me so I'll ignore it and create equations (magic tricks?) to make 86 wins disappear.

But the Astros could hire Buck Showalter, because he's not as bright as me and he might go work for Drayton Mclane.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

(magic tricks?)

Illusions, prav.  A trick is something a whore does for money.  Or candy.

[pravata]

Illusions, prav.  A trick is something a whore does for money.  Or candy.

I stand by my statement! (you're right, illusion is better.)

[JimR]

Kenny stole that from BP.

[Mr. Happy]

Kenny stole that from BP.

He steals everything that he writes.

[Rebel Jew]

various typing exercises, ... the hitting coach will be fired even though the best hitters are veterans and will come around, but even if they do, the Astros "will be in trouble" because the Astros have no pitching, which oddly, firing the hitting coach did not solve.

is there a position in sports with less job security than mlb hitting coach?

[MusicMan]

is there a position in sports with less job security than mlb hitting coach?

MLB Pitching Coach.

[Bench]

MLB Pitching Coach.

Often pitching coaches are treated as gurus (Rick Peterson, even Verne Ruhle) and are given a longer leash.  Batting coaches are just around.

[Mr. Happy]

Often pitching coaches are treated as gurus (Rick Peterson, even Verne Ruhle) and are given a longer leash.  Batting coaches are just around.

Don't leave out Drinkin' Dave!

[VirtualBob]

Thank you , just doing my part.

Please do it less often.

[ragarm]

Please do it less often.

Thank you sir for the advice.

[Mr. Happy]

Thank you sir for the advice.

Is this a Clark who "gets it," or is my perpetually broken sarc-meter still in disrepair?

[Bench]

Is this a Clark who "gets it," or is my perpetually broken sarc-meter still in disrepair?

The latter.

[MusicMan]

Please do it less often.

"Now you're just being nasty."
"Ah, so you know it is true.  How nice."

[Limey]

The latter.

Ragarm is doing what Lupus and Failo have not done - make a point, be able to support it and not be a penis.

[Bench]

Ragarm is doing what Lupus and Failo have not done - make a point, be able to support it and not be a penis.

Yeah, I got confused among the clarks.

[Mr. Happy]

Yeah, I got confused among the clarks.

Tiz easy to do at the beginning of the season. If the Astros continue with their present putrid play, we should enjoy a troll-free TZ.

[MRaup]

Tiz easy to do at the beginning of the season. If the Astros continue with their present putrid play, we should enjoy a troll-free TZ.

Nah, we'll still get the typical walk-in Cubfan fucktards, with a smattering of other NL Central fans wanting to come bare their be-pimpled asses.

[Gizzmonic]

Ragarm is doing what Lupus and Failo have not done - make a point, be able to support it and not be a penis.

so...he's like a womb?

[Mr. Happy]

Nah, we'll still get the typical walk-in Cubfan fucktards, with a smattering of other NL Central fans wanting to come bare their be-pimpled asses.

Yep, forgot all about that breed of pestilence.

[juliogotay]

Often pitching coaches are treated as gurus (Rick Peterson, even Verne Ruhle) and are given a longer leash.  Batting coaches are just around.

Although both Peterson and Ruhle have been shit-canned.

[Mr. Happy]

Although both Peterson and Ruhle have been shit-canned.

What did Bum Philips say about coaches? There's only two kinds of coaches: them that's been fired and them that's about to be fired?