Wolf and Brocail - 11pm Monday Deadline

[otterjb]

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081128&content_id=3695516&vkey=news_hou&fext=.jsp&c_id=hou

[Jacksonian]

I expect Wolf to get offered but not Brocail.

[Wild Dog]

I expect Wolf to get offered but not Brocail.

With Brocail being a Type A free agent, it seems to me that they would offer him arbitration just to have the option for a 1st round draft pick should he refuse.  Gut feeling is that they offer both Brocail and Wolf.

How much do you think Brocail would ask for in arbitration?

[Jacksonian]

With Brocail being a Type A free agent, it seems to me that they would offer him arbitration just to have the option for a 1st round draft pick should he refuse.  Gut feeling is that they offer both Brocail and Wolf.

How much do you think Brocail would ask for in arbitration?

I don't think they want to give him a raise over last season of that size.  They already declined the option in his contract for a significant raise.  I think he'd take the arb if offered.  Too, if they arb offer what team is going to want to give up a first round pick for him?

[Cheo]

I'm hoping they both get offers, both end up signing elsewhere, we get compensatory picks and then sign Sheets.  Keep our loss of picks down to a minimum. 

[Russe]

So did anyone hear who got offered arby?

[Jacksonian]

I'm hoping they both get offers, both end up signing elsewhere, we get compensatory picks and then sign Sheets.  Keep our loss of picks down to a minimum. 

Sheets was offered arb.  Signing him costs pick #21 in the first round.  The Brewers really hurt his value.

[Uncle Charlie]

Rotoworld is reporting that the Astros didn't offer to Wolf or Brocail.  Wonder if the the Hampton signing had something to do with not offering to Wolf?

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=2815

[ValpoCory]

Rotoworld is reporting that the Astros didn't offer to Wolf or Brocail.  Wonder if the the Hampton signing had something to do with not offering to Wolf?

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=2815

I am a little surprised with Wolf.  Would it have been that bad had he accepted?

[ValpoCory]

Astros.com agrees.

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081202&content_id=3698313&vkey=news_hou&fext=.jsp&c_id=hou

[ValpoCory]

Reading Footer's latest mailbag, she still can't let the Kaz Matsui situation go.   I wonder if Madeline is Alyson's nom de plume.

"

Does anyone else think that Kazuo Matsui didn't pull his weight last year? I think we did just fine when he was out, and someone else can use him more. What could we get for him in trade?
-- Madeline, Houston

Probably nothing, considering the fact that he's injury-prone and has a limited no-trade clause and another $10 million coming to him over the next two years. Matsui is an exciting player when he's healthy -- great range, a spark at the top of the lineup -- but he has to find a way to stay on the field. Last year was ridiculous.

"

[S.P. Rodriguez]

I'm betting the MLBPAA is going to level accusations of collusion if this offseason leads to a serious decline in pay for mid-level FAs.  I'm not saying it's legit but I fully expect the accusations are coming. 

[Andyzipp]

I'm betting the MLBPAA is going to level accusations of collusion if this offseason leads to a serious decline in pay for mid-level FAs.  I'm not saying it's legit but I fully expect the accusations are coming. 

We're in a recession.  Salaries should go down.

[Gizzmonic]

So did anyone hear who got offered arby?

I got offered an arby's coupon in a small white envelope.  It was addressed to "Occupant."

[Andyzipp]

I got offered an arby's coupon in a small white envelope.  It was addressed to "Occupant."

They're building an Arby's in at Bunker Hill and I-10.  So I'm excited about that.

[MusicMan]

Astros.com agrees.

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081202&content_id=3698313&vkey=news_hou&fext=.jsp&c_id=hou

Declining arb on Wolf is the first Wade move that has made me go "Whaaaaat???"

[das]

They're building an Arby's in at Bunker Hill and I-10.  So I'm excited about that.

Horsey sauce rocks.

[Jacksonian]

Declining arb on Wolf is the first Wade move that has made me go "Whaaaaat???"

I can only imagine there's serious fear he'd accept.  I don't know why he would though.  Offering him arb would NOT have cost the signing team a draft pick.  We'll see what kind of contract Wolf signs this off-season.  That will tell us how founded or not the Astros' fear is.

[Andyzipp]

I can only imagine there's serious fear he'd accept.  I don't know why he would though.  Offering him arb would NOT have cost the signing team a draft pick.  We'll see what kind of contract Wolf signs this off-season.  That will tell us how founded or not the Astros' fear is.

I'm certain this just means Wade is trading for Peavy and signing Sheets.
Certain.

[Reuben]

I'm certain this just means Wade is trading for Peavy and signing Sheets.
Certain.

Right, that must be it. It doesn't mean that Drayton is deathly afraid of the payroll going up, to the point that he's spooked by that shadow on the wall, that looks kind of like Randy Wolf in profile...

[S.P. Rodriguez]

We're in a recession.  Salaries should go down.

I totally agree.  I don't think that will stop the accusations from surfacing.

[toddthebod]

Declining arb on Wolf is the first Wade move that has made me go "Whaaaaat???"

The Wolf decision drives me nuts.  I thought that part of the thinking when the Astros traded for Wolf was that if they couldn't resign him, at least they would get the draft pick(s).  The Astros need to rebuild their farm system.  Now they are letting Wolf walk for nothing.  He was not going to accept arbitration from the Astros because he is poised to get a multi-year deal.  And he is going to be signed by another team. 

[Jacksonian]

Fear was the great motivator:

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081202&content_id=3698313&vkey=news_hou&fext=.jsp&c_id=hou

"...while his salary would have probably reached upwards of $10 million, the club wouldn't have been burdened with a long-term deal.

But in the end, Wade decided the financial risk was too great to take that chance.

"We don't know what landscape is out there with regard to offers from other clubs he might get," Wade said. "We thought long and hard about this one."

Also, this nugget:

"The projected $100 million payroll may be lowered..."

[pravata]

..."The projected $100 million payroll may be lowered..."

Footer's headline for an article about the Winter Meeting is "Pitching the priority for Astros in Vegas".  Right, but how many pitchers have ranches, latch key kids going through a divorce, a protruding bone in their arm, or a court order not to leave Houston?  Or did she mean trading pitching away will be a priority?
http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081202&content_id=3698201&vkey=news_hou&fext=.jsp&c_id=hou

[JimR]

Footer's headline for an article about the Winter Meeting is "Pitching the priority for Astros in Vegas".  Right, but how many pitchers have ranches, latch key kids going through a divorce, a protruding bone in their arm, or a court order not to leave Houston?  Or did she mean trading pitching away will be a priority?
http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081202&content_id=3698201&vkey=news_hou&fext=.jsp&c_id=hou

i have to believe for sanity's sake that WadeSmith is just posturing.

[Jacksonian]

i have to believe for sanity's sake that WadeSmith is just posturing.

You may want to see a psychiatrist soon then.

[Jacksonian]

Footer's headline for an article about the Winter Meeting is "Pitching the priority for Astros in Vegas".  Right, but how many pitchers have ranches, latch key kids going through a divorce, a protruding bone in their arm, or a court order not to leave Houston?  Or did she mean trading pitching away will be a priority?
http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081202&content_id=3698201&vkey=news_hou&fext=.jsp&c_id=hou

In that article she also said they wouldn't be going after any Type A free agents.  So, forget Sheets.

I'm looking for reclamation projects like Hampton, has-beens, never-was's, and 2nd or 3rd level trades.

Roy, Hampton, Wandy, Moehler, Backe.

[BUWebguy]

Footer has said a Sheets signing was unlikely all along, hasn't she?

[Noe]

Footer has said a Sheets signing was unlikely all along, hasn't she?

She has opine against the whole idea because it was a well known, worse kept secret that Houston and Sheets were going to talk about bringing him aboard.  She fears his injury history and feels that it would be sunken cost (aka: she has the same opinion about Kaz Matsui).  On the part of Houston, they are interested in Sheets, however the conversations have been just the kicking the tires type of talks.  Sheets is going to have to weigh what offers will realistically come his way based on his history, so Houston is in no hurry to rush to sign the young man.  In fact, I would think that Sheets may find himself in the same boat as Kyle Lohse did a few years back... waiting for a gig because no one was going to give him what he wanted.  The team that times it right will probably make a similar Lohse deal with Sheets unless another team panics and offers too much, too soon.

Sheets, on his part, would like to land here in Houston but won't sacrifice market value until he knows what said market value might be.  Right now, he only knows what he would want and not what the market will pay for his services.  IMHO, Sheets won't sign early with anyone.

[Andyzipp]

Footer has said a Sheets signing was unlikely all along, hasn't she?

I like her, but keep in mind that Footer knows as much as the Astros want her to know.  She's good as superimposing her opinions over that fact, and she's a good writer, but it's not like she's an investigative reporter with a myriad of sources that are constantly feeding her inside information.

[Jacksonian]

IMHO, Sheets won't sign early with anyone.

Sabathia especially will have to roll out of the picture first before Sheets' value gets better defined.

[JimR]

I like her, but keep in mind that Footer knows as much as the Astros want her to know.  She's good as superimposing her opinions over that fact, and she's a good writer, but it's not like she's an investigative reporter with a myriad of sources that are constantly feeding her inside information.

and, to me, her columns are less interesting when she says very little more than her opinions.

[Jacksonian]

Brocail on board for $2.5mil.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bb/6142518.html

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Brocail on board for $2.5mil.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bb/6142518.html

Hot damn.  That's good news.  With Hawkins and Brocail back (and Wright another year along), at least the bullpen will be solid.

[Jacksonian]

Hot damn.  That's good news.  With Hawkins and Brocail back (and Wright another year along), at least the bullpen will be solid.

Your 7 as it is today: Valverde, Brocail, Hawkins, Geary, Byrdak, Wright, and Sampson.

[I'm Richies Dad]

I wonder if one might traded like Geary?

[Señor Stan]

She has opine against the whole idea because it was a well known, worse kept secret that Houston and Sheets were going to talk about bringing him aboard.  She fears his injury history and feels that it would be sunken cost (aka: she has the same opinion about Kaz Matsui).  On the part of Houston, they are interested in Sheets, however the conversations have been just the kicking the tires type of talks.  Sheets is going to have to weigh what offers will realistically come his way based on his history, so Houston is in no hurry to rush to sign the young man.  In fact, I would think that Sheets may find himself in the same boat as Kyle Lohse did a few years back... waiting for a gig because no one was going to give him what he wanted.  The team that times it right will probably make a similar Lohse deal with Sheets unless another team panics and offers too much, too soon.

Sheets, on his part, would like to land here in Houston but won't sacrifice market value until he knows what said market value might be.  Right now, he only knows what he would want and not what the market will pay for his services.  IMHO, Sheets won't sign early with anyone.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Sheets accepted the Brewers offer of arbitration.  He made 12,125,000 in 2008 and will be hard pressed to sign a multi year deal IMO. He could ask in the 14-15 million dollar range this year and have a legitimate shot of getting it.  It could be very similar to what Maddux did with the Braves back in 2003.

[toddthebod]

Your 7 as it is today: Valverde, Brocail, Hawkins, Geary, Byrdak, Wright, and Sampson.

It is a really solid bullpen. 

[Mr. Happy]

Hot damn.  That's good news.  With Hawkins and Brocail back (and Wright another year along), at least the bullpen will be solid.

Agreed. But if we don't get the inning eater that we need, the older arms are going to break down later in the season.

[Jose Cruz III]

As stupid as I may be, I don't think the Astros are out of the Peavy market yet. The offers that are getting leaked are pitiful, in my opinion, and the Padres seem intent on sending him somewhere. And Peavy's first choice is Houston allegedly.

Although it is clearly specualtion and rumor at this point, there continues to be rumors on various sites of Valverde and Wigginton being shopped. And the common reason on these sites is payroll cutting. But it don't make sense to me if you wanted to cut payroll that bad why you wouldn't market one or two of the higher paid players on the team. If you are trying to build up the farm and don't have money it just seems to me that Berkman, Lee, and especially Oswalt would bring back more in return. It just makes me wander if what's on the mind of the higher ups is trading these guys for the prospects that San Diego will accept for Peavy and then signing one of the lower end closers from a very deep market for closers. But I have no inside sources and I am sometimes short on brains, too.

But one thing for sure is Wade knows it is easier to plug a couple of holes in the lineup on the cheap with a good to great pitching staff than it is to plug a couple of holes in the pitching staff with a good to great lineup.

Just speculation.

[Andyzipp]

As stupid as I may be, I don't think the Astros are out of the Peavy market yet. The offers that are getting leaked are pitiful, in my opinion, and the Padres seem intent on sending him somewhere. And Peavy's first choice is Houston allegedly.

Although it is clearly specualtion and rumor at this point, there continues to be rumors on various sites of Valverde and Wigginton being shopped. And the common reason on these sites is payroll cutting. But it don't make sense to me if you wanted to cut payroll that bad why you wouldn't market one or two of the higher paid players on the team. If you are trying to build up the farm and don't have money it just seems to me that Berkman, Lee, and especially Oswalt would bring back more in return. It just makes me wander if what's on the mind of the higher ups is trading these guys for the prospects that San Diego will accept for Peavy and then signing one of the lower end closers from a very deep market for closers. But I have no inside sources and I am sometimes short on brains, too.

But one thing for sure is Wade knows it is easier to plug a couple of holes in the lineup on the cheap with a good to great pitching staff than it is to plug a couple of holes in the pitching staff with a good to great lineup.

Just speculation.

Why does it make sense to you that the Astros should trade Berkman, Oswalt or Lee (and his complete no-trade clause) over Wigginton and Valverde?

[VirtualBob]

Your 7 as it is today: Valverde, Brocail, Hawkins, Geary, Byrdak, Wright, and Sampson.

Sampson may not be back from surgery at the start of the year.

[Jose Cruz III]

Why does it make sense to you that the Astros should trade Berkman, Oswalt or Lee (and his complete no-trade clause) over Wigginton and Valverde?

I really don't think they should trade any of them being a fan. But I, and my zero GM experience, just wonder if Valverde and Wigginton being shopped, if in fact they are being shopped, is not moreso for a bigger fish than cutting payroll.

[Ron Brand]

Well, Wiggy's due for an arb bump and then it'll be new contract time, and his price may go higher. There is a closer glut now, so Valverde isn't really a cheap option and his value probably won't get any better, so there is logic to moving them now if you can.  If they can somehow resurrect Miggy and get either a SS or find a 3B, then this could work out well.  It'll be interesting to see what Wade comes up with.

[Noe]

Sabathia especially will have to roll out of the picture first before Sheets' value gets better defined.

Eggszactly right!  And I would venture a guess that even with the market always being good for starters, guys like Sheets and his injury history might find themselves staring at either deals from a team that isn't in his radar (re: a Kansas City making a Gil Meche type of splash) or having to wait out the market and see who is left.  The idea of returning to Milwaukee for one more season is viable and I'm sure that would put the chip on shoulder to prove everyone wrong.  Then again, he could also blow out an elbow like Jason Jennings and prove everyone was right to be very cautious with him.

The Astros are willing to take the gamble now, but Sheets knows any deal now involves some serious downgrade in what he thinks he deserves as an elite pitcher.  I fear the type of deals that St. Louis is good at making for such a pitcher in such a position.  They have a way of making pitchers on the bubble become better and a marketable commodity and usually that is not lost to an agent looking for that one solid year for his client to get the big payday.

[Jacksonian]

Eggszactly right!  And I would venture a guess that even with the market always being good for starters, guys like Sheets and his injury history might find themselves staring at either deals from a team that isn't in his radar (re: a Kansas City making a Gil Meche type of splash) or having to wait out the market and see who is left.  The idea of returning to Milwaukee for one more season is viable and I'm sure that would put the chip on shoulder to prove everyone wrong.  Then again, he could also blow out an elbow like Jason Jennings and prove everyone was right to be very cautious with him.

The Astros are willing to take the gamble now, but Sheets knows any deal now involves some serious downgrade in what he thinks he deserves as an elite pitcher.  I fear the type of deals that St. Louis is good at making for such a pitcher in such a position.  They have a way of making pitchers on the bubble become better and a marketable commodity and usually that is not lost to an agent looking for that one solid year for his client to get the big payday.

My impression is that Sheets is off the table.  I don't believe Wade will sign any Type A free agent who was offered arb.

[Bench]

My impression is that Sheets is off the table.  I don't believe Wade will sign any Type A free agent who was offered arb.

That strategy seems to conflict with not offering arbitration to Wolf.  If one is coveting draft picks, you would think that person would try to get one from losing Wolf, who is likely to be offered greener pastures.  Perhaps keeping a tight fist on overall payroll really is a more significant factor than I have previously understood it to be from the team's past practices.  Let's just say the beginning of this offseason is confusing me.

[Noe]

My impression is that Sheets is off the table.  I don't believe Wade will sign any Type A free agent who was offered arb.

He's not off the table.  But he's not fully on the table either.  The Type A designation will not scare Houston off... the salary demands and length of contract will.

[Jacksonian]

He's not off the table.  But he's not fully on the table either.  The Type A designation will not scare Houston off... the salary demands and length of contract will.

Are you sure?  I'm getting the not sacrificing a first round pick for anyone the Astros can afford vibe.  My impression is that Wade will get roasted by Drayton if he sacrifices a draft pick (read, bad publicity) and that player ends up an oft-injured or worse (see Williams, Woody) player.  In other words the Type A's they'd be willing to sign and give up a first rounder for are the guys they can't afford (see, CC). 

Then again, maybe my read is wrong.

[Noe]

Are you sure?  I'm getting the not sacrificing a first round pick for anyone the Astros can afford vibe.  My impression is that Wade will get roasted by Drayton if he sacrifices a draft pick (read, bad publicity) and that player ends up an oft-injured or worse (see Williams, Woody) player.  In other words the Type A's they'd be willing to sign and give up a first rounder for are the guys they can't afford (see, CC). 

Then again, maybe my read is wrong.

Two words: Max Sapp.  If you have a veteran arm in the fold for a reasonable price (re: It will also make Drayton some money), they won't care about a draft pick.  The key is the "reasonable money part".  If he gets injured, then they will have mitigated it by paying what they felt was the money that can be use for that reasonable risk.  Sheets, for all his injuries, is still a prime pitcher if healthy and if they have a set cost in mind and they can bring him in for that... the fact that it will cost them a draft pick won't really bother them.

The problem right now is that Sheets believes that the injury is behind him and no one should worry about signing him.  So this isn't going to be a quick and done deal for anybody wishing to employ Sheets.  Frankly, if they feel a Braden Looper, for example, is there for the right price, they'll move away from Sheets.  But the same applies to Looper, I believe he thinks he has a high market value and will test that market for sure.

[astrosfan76]

The problem right now is that Sheets believes that the injury is behind him and no one should worry about signing him.  So this isn't going to be a quick and done deal for anybody wishing to employ Sheets.  Frankly, if they feel a Braden Looper, for example, is there for the right price, they'll move away from Sheets.  But the same applies to Looper, I believe he thinks he has a high market value and will test that market for sure.

Sheets is going to have to have a read on his market pretty quickly, though.  He has less than a week to decide whether to accept arbitration, netting around $15M in the process, with the ability to headline a weaker SP class next offseason (hopefully in a better economic climate), or decline it.  Declining would probably lead to a multi-year deal, though teams are scared by his history and decision not to have surgery.  So, a multi-year deal may not get him the years or salary he could command in better circumstances.  Arbitration could be a very real possibility for him, at this point.

If the price tag was acceptable, I wouldn't mind Looper.  He's nowhere the class of a Sheets or Peavy, but he would help to solidify the rotation without costing draft picks or weakening other areas of the club.  I wouldn't complain if the club landed either of the other guys, but Looper would cause less disruption to the club's short-term and long-term plans. 

[Mr. Happy]

Sheets is going to have to have a read on his market pretty quickly, though.  He has less than a week to decide whether to accept arbitration, netting around $15M in the process, with the ability to headline a weaker SP class next offseason (hopefully in a better economic climate), or decline it.  Declining would probably lead to a multi-year deal, though teams are scared by his history and decision not to have surgery.  So, a multi-year deal may not get him the years or salary he could command in better circumstances.  Arbitration could be a very real possibility for him, at this point.

If the price tag was acceptable, I wouldn't mind Looper.  He's nowhere the class of a Sheets or Peavy, but he would help to solidify the rotation without costing draft picks or weakening other areas of the club.  I wouldn't complain if the club landed either of the other guys, but Looper would cause less disruption to the club's short-term and long-term plans. 

Sheets in my view will accept arbitration. I have this hunch that salaries aren't going to be reaching for the stars in this economy.

[Anit]

Rosenthal is reporting that Sheets is likely to decline arb

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8887738/Source:-Brewers'-Sheets-likely-to-decline-arbitration

[Mr. Happy]

Rosenthal is reporting that Sheets is likely to decline arb

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8887738/Source:-Brewers'-Sheets-likely-to-decline-arbitration

Innuresting. Maybe he's looking at total salary from a contract rather than merely looking at what he could get in a one year deal. Sounds sensible if that is it.

[Andyzipp]

Innuresting. Maybe he's looking at total salary from a contract rather than merely looking at what he could get in a one year deal. Sounds sensible if that is it.

He also supposedly does not like Milwaukee.

[Hornstros]

He also supposedly does not like Milwaukee.

That shouldn't be considered too unusual

[Mr. Happy]

That shouldn't be considered too unusual

In fact, that should be considered normal.