top prospect list season

[Duman]

It's that time of the year when different folks start putting out their top 10/20 prospect list.  Baseball America started theirs off with the O's and named former Astro farm hand Troy Patton as #8.  They will do their Astros list on Jan 16.  This thread will be a way to keep up with the list as they come out.  Feel free to post one if you find it first.

[Froback]

It's that time of the year when different folks start putting out their top 10/20 prospect list.  Baseball America started theirs off with the O's and named former Astro farm hand Troy Patton as #8.  They will do their Astros list on Jan 16.  This thread will be a way to keep up with the list as they come out.  Feel free to post one if you find it first.

Not meaning to clutter this thread up, so feel free to delete it if you want, but....

When are we doing the annual guess what Jacksonian and Duman think the top 10 prospects are for the Astros, game?

[Duman]

Jacksonian drives that train it normally comes out in mid to late January.

[Jacksonian]

Jacksonian drives that train bus it normally comes out in mid to late January.

As Duman knows I prefer to wait until we're pretty sure prospect dealing is done before settling on a top 10 or 20.

[MusicMan]

As Duman knows I prefer to wait until we're pretty sure prospect dealing is done before settling on a top 10 or 20.

You mean the top 10 list won't just be a posting of last year's draft?

[Jacksonian]

You mean the top 10 list won't just be a posting of last year's draft?

As is always included in the introduction to the list we do not include players who have not spent time at full-season teams.

[Duman]

Here is BP's take on our talent:

Four-Star Prospects
1. Jason Castro, C
Three-Star Prospects
2. Brian Bogusevic, CF
3. Jordan Lyles, RHP
4. Bud Norris, RHP
5. Chris Johnson, 3B
6. Ross Seaton, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
7. Samuel Gervacio, RHP
8. Drew Sutton, 2B
9. Felipe Paulino, RHP
10. Chia-Jen Lo, RHP
11. Jay Austin, CF

Just Missed: Collin DeLome, OF; T.J. Steele, OF; Polin Trinidad, LHP

Ranking Challenges: One of the biggest hurdles with a team like the Astros is simply finding the right 11; once you delve into two-star territory, there are any number of candidates, and none of them would be especially worthy in most other systems. Castro and Bogusevic were an easy 1-2, but after that, an argument could be made for several different orders.

[Duman]

They also have a Q&A with Castro.  I don't subscribe so I don't know what it says.

[Duman]

Audio interview with Bobby Heck on BP Radio about the top 11.

[moriartp]

I'm amused by Heck's tendency to refer to players as "it."

[farmstros]

With this list from BP, is Manzella not on there because he's too old at 25?  Or he just not that good?

[Jacksonian]

With this list from BP, is Manzella not on there because he's too old at 25?  Or he just not that good?

Sutton and Paulino are the same age.  I'd guess that because he's not a big hitter they think he's not worth much.  It cannot be for his defense.  Only other reason for him to not be there is oversight.

[Reuben]

Sutton and Paulino are the same age.  I'd guess that because he's not a big hitter they think he's not worth much.  It cannot be for his defense.  Only other reason for him to not be there is oversight.

Do you think the Astros still view him as their future SS?

[VirtualBob]

Do you think the Astros still view him as their future SS?

I hope so.  He is really slick in the field.

[Jacksonian]

Do you think the Astros still view him as their future SS?

He's on the 40-man and has not ever played the utility role.

[MusicMan]

The closing to the BP article is as fair as you will get from them concerning the Astros:

Summary: The Astros system is one of the worst in baseball, but the addition of Bobby Heck from Milwaukee to head the scouting department and an intriguing 2008 draft gives reason for hope. True impact help from the system, however, is going to take years.

[Jacksonian]

The closing to the BP article is as fair as you will get from them concerning the Astros:

True impact help from the system, however, is going to take years.

Here's the thing.  Johnson, Bogusevic, Manzella, Paulino, Norris, Gervacio, and Sutton are not years away, and 2 or 3 of those guys could be impact players if development goes well.

Castro may not be far behind.

2 more good drafts (I don't believe they'll sign a type A FA who's been offered arb) and the Astros should have plenty of talent up and down the org.

[JimR]

Here's the thing.  Johnson, Bogusevic, Manzella, Paulino, Norris, Gervacio, and Sutton are not years away, and 2 or 3 of those guys could be impact players if development goes well.

Castro may not be far behind.

2 more good drafts (I don't believe they'll sign a type A FA who's been offered arb) and the Astros should have plenty of talent up and down the org.

i think the jury is still out whether Manzella will be more than a second coming of AE. last year at RR, he got the bat knocked out of his hands a lot.

[Jacksonian]

i think the jury is still out whether Manzella will be more than a second coming of AE. last year at RR, he got the bat knocked out of his hands a lot.

I agree.  Though I believe the Astros hope he can develop into something of a 2-hole stick handler.  (Let the jokes begin.)

[astrosfan76]

i think the jury is still out whether Manzella will be more than a second coming of AE. last year at RR, he got the bat knocked out of his hands a lot.

I didn't get to see him, so I don't have that to go by, but did his mother's death have anything to do with his performance at Round Rock?  His K/BB ratios were very similar to his Corpus numbers, but his BABIP was obviously much lower.  Was it just the pitchers pounding him inside, or did it seem like something else was going on?   

[JimR]

I didn't get to see him, so I don't have that to go by, but did his mother's death have anything to do with his performance at Round Rock?  His K/BB ratios were very similar to his Corpus numbers, but his BABIP was obviously much lower.  Was it just the pitchers pounding him inside, or did it seem like something else was going on?   

BAIBP? WTF?

[astrosfan76]

Batting Average on Balls In Play.  It's a way of looking at a player's average, independent of factors like strikeouts.  If a player has a higher than normal percentage of balls fall in for base hits, it could be a signal that the player was just lucky.  On the other hand, if it's lower than normal, it could indicate that the player had bad luck or it could indicate that the player was just overmatched and hit a lot of weak balls to fielders. 

In Manzella's case, I was curious if he seemed distracted and that was why he performed worse at Round Rock (versus CC) or if he just looked overmatched by the more experienced pitching.  It could have just been bad luck, but if I had to guess, I would guess it was either being distracted or being overmatched.  But, that's just a guess without having seen him play.

[Rebel Jew]

Batting Average on Balls In Play.  It's a way of looking at a player's average, independent of factors like strikeouts.  If a player has a higher than normal percentage of balls fall in for base hits, it could be a signal that the player was just lucky.  On the other hand, if it's lower than normal, it could indicate that the player had bad luck or it could indicate that the player was just overmatched and hit a lot of weak balls to fielders. 

In Manzella's case, I was curious if he seemed distracted and that was why he performed worse at Round Rock (versus CC) or if he just looked overmatched by the more experienced pitching.  It could have just been bad luck, but if I had to guess, I would guess it was either being distracted or being overmatched.  But, that's just a guess without having seen him play.

manzella hitz week ballz cuz he wuz destracted by big texas boobs in tha stands at tha dell dimond, but mebbe he wuz just overmatched by them

[VirtualBob]

Batting Average on Balls In Play.  It's a way of looking at a player's average, independent of factors like strikeouts.  If a player has a higher than normal percentage of balls fall in for base hits, it could be a signal that the player was just lucky.  On the other hand, if it's lower than normal, it could indicate that the player had bad luck or it could indicate that the player was just overmatched and hit a lot of weak balls to fielders. 

I'm sure coach appreciates the instruction, kid.  rmpl

[jonbloozy]

manzella hitz week ballz cuz he wuz destracted by big texas boobs in tha stands at tha dell dimond, but mebbe he wuz just overmatched by them

This post is ridiculous.  Was he overmatched by the pitching or by the big texas boobs?

[SaltyParker]

This post is ridiculous.  Was he overmatched by the pitching or by the big texas boobs?

Perhaps both.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

This post is ridiculous.  Was he overmatched by the pitching or by the big texas boobs?

I thought Manzella was one them Louisianna boys?  Them Louisianna gals got big'uns too!

[Rebel Jew]

I thought Manzella was one them Louisianna boys?  Them Louisianna gals got big'uns too!

yez, but hiz BABIP (batting avarige when boobs iz plentiful) wuz much higher at tulane

[JimR]

Batting Average on Balls In Play.  It's a way of looking at a player's average, independent of factors like strikeouts.  If a player has a higher than normal percentage of balls fall in for base hits, it could be a signal that the player was just lucky.  On the other hand, if it's lower than normal, it could indicate that the player had bad luck or it could indicate that the player was just overmatched and hit a lot of weak balls to fielders. 

In Manzella's case, I was curious if he seemed distracted and that was why he performed worse at Round Rock (versus CC) or if he just looked overmatched by the more experienced pitching.  It could have just been bad luck, but if I had to guess, I would guess it was either being distracted or being overmatched.  But, that's just a guess without having seen him play.

overmatched.
WTF do you mean by distracted?
bad luck? what--at cards?  you betcha--hitting is all luck.

[astrosfan76]

Like I mentioned earlier, Manzella's mother died the day after he was promoted to Round Rock, thus the questions about being distracted. 

Luck could be balls falling in for base hits that normally wouldn't or weakly-hit balls that roll just slow enough or find a hole.  Bad luck could be hard-hit balls that find a fielder's glove.  That's not saying hitting is all about (or even mostly about) luck, but there are going to be times when some luck is involved.  If a player's performance is overly-affected by those types of plays, it's likely that things will balance out in the long run. 

Here's an article on it, if you want to read it:

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/mlb/news?slug=mb-splitsville_022607

[Duman]

Here is the flaw in this stat:

You'll note that home runs are subtracted in the equation, since it is not possible to make a defensive play on a ball that is hit into the stands.

Go to MLB video and search for catch at the wall.  You will see catch after catch made of balls that would be HR if not for a catch made above the wall.  IMO Silly Stat

[JimR]

Like I mentioned earlier, Manzella's mother died the day after he was promoted to Round Rock, thus the questions about being distracted. 

Luck could be balls falling in for base hits that normally wouldn't or weakly-hit balls that roll just slow enough or find a hole.  Bad luck could be hard-hit balls that find a fielder's glove.  That's not saying hitting is all about (or even mostly about) luck, but there are going to be times when some luck is involved.  If a player's performance is overly-affected by those types of plays, it's likely that things will balance out in the long run. 

Here's an article on it, if you want to read it:

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/mlb/news?slug=mb-splitsville_022607

BS "stat." Astros Daily may be the ideal place for you.

did not know about Manzella's mother. he was way overmatched in AAA. his defense is good but nowhere near AE good.

[BUWebguy]

his defense is good but nowhere near AE good.

I'm disappointed to hear that. I had gotten the impression from reading here that he was pretty much AE part II.

[Jacksonian]

I'm disappointed to hear that. I had gotten the impression from reading here that he was pretty much AE part II.

That's an overstatement.  I thought we'd gone out of our way to emphasize there's only one AE, but that Manzella is very good defensively.  Bennett says he's major league ready defensively.  Everything I've heard says he'll make all the routine plays.  He doesn't have AE's range, but his range is good.  He also has a very good arm.

[BUWebguy]

That's an overstatement.  I thought we'd gone out of our way to emphasize there's only one AE, but that Manzella is very good defensively.  Bennett says he's major league ready defensively.  Everything I've heard says he'll make all the routine plays.  He doesn't have AE's range, but his range is good.  He also has a very good arm.

Thanks - I'm sure that was just a mistake on my part.

[Duman]

John Sickles over at Minorleaguebaseball.com released his top 20 before the end of the year.

Castro
Bogusevic
Norris
Lyles
Seaton
Paulino
Sutton
Johnson
Gervacio
C. J. Lo
Delome
S. Perez
P. Trinidad
T. J. Steel
J. B. Shuck
J. Austin
F. Hernandez
Cespedes
Disher
Torres

My only significant problem with this list is Tim Torres was released in November.  So much for being #20.

[VirtualBob]

John Sickles over at Minorleaguebaseball.com released his top 20 before the end of the year.

//snip//

Torres

My only significant problem with this list is Tim Torres was released in November.  So much for being #20.

How does a guy who cannot even pay attention to roster moves get to call himself an expert on prospects??

Amazing!

[Russe]

A good chunk of his "analyses" seems to be pulled from Rotoworld.com blurbs.

[Russe]

It's a little short notice, but BA's list is out tomorrow, and since I got a subscription for Christmas, if there's any specific question you fellow Bus Riders want me to ask/prospect you wanna hear about, list it here I'll submit it for the chat.

[Duman]

Thanks for the offer:

Injury questions:

Paulino hasn't pitched in winter ball.  What is his status?
How is Josh Flores recovering from his missed season due to knee problems?  Will this impact his speed?

[VirtualBob]

I'd also like to hear about Tip Fairchild ... seems he was shut down for most of last season.  Is he all the way back from injury?  Where do they have him slotted (AA/AAA? SP/RP?).

[Russe]

Here's BA's list, by the by.

1.     Jason Castro,
2.    Bud Norris, rhp
3.    Ross Seaton, rhp
4.    Brian Bogusevic, of
5.    Chris Johnson, 3b
6.    Jordan Lyles, rhp
7.    Felipe Paulino, rhp
8.    Drew Sutton, 2b/ss
9.    Collin DeLome, of
10.    Jay Austin, of

The only big surprise for me is DeLome at 9, but they like his power and athleticism. Also, it should be noted that his scouting report picture has him rocking a mean porn 'stache.

[Hornstros]

Our best prospect in 2008 was JR Towles per BA's rankings.   We've come a long way in a short time

[CarolinaStro]

Our best prospect in 2008 was JR Towles per BA's rankings.   We've come a long way in a short time

maybe or maybe these rankings are just worthless

[CarolinaStro]

C. J. Lo

What is the story on this guy (haven't heard of him)?

[CarolinaStro]

What is the story on this guy (haven't heard of him)?

nevermind, see the info on the thread below. 

[Hornstros]

maybe or maybe these rankings are just worthless

Maybe our farm system was worthless

[JimR]

Maybe our farm system was worthless

BA lists are. they do not see them play.

[Hornstros]

BA lists are. they do not see them play.

Yeah now that you mention that i think i've heard that before.   Regardless, all of these prospects lists are subjective and could be argued all day long.   Castro at the top seems to be a trend though

[astrosfan76]

BA lists are. they do not see them play.

They do see them some, especially the guys who play in the AFL.  For the rest of the guys, they do talk to scouts and the organization for information.  So, while they may not have seen everyone firsthand, they are getting information from guys who have. 

Their approach seems better than the alternatives.  We could just go by guys who don't talk to the organization or scouts and rely heavily on stats (like Sickels).  We could go by guys who have seen them, but don't use the organization as a source and don't know whether there are outside factors (injury, working on a particular skill, etc).  We could just go by what the club tells us, when they rarely have anything negative to say about a player (I remember James being hyped pretty heavily by Bennett last year).  Or we could only go by what we see.  The last one is fine, especially if you know what to look for and can couple that with information from the organization.  But, that's not really an option for most.  So, for most, while not perfect, it is better than the alternatives.

[Duman]

BA lists are. they do not see them play.

BA talks to enough scouts and org people till they get a consensus feel for a player.

List are fun but must not be taken too seriously.  The only opinions who really matter are the brass of the team who make the decision to keep the player, promote the player or release the player.

[moriartp]

A few highlights from the chat:


The Astros still say Paulino will be ready for spring training. He was apparently throwing off flat ground over the winter.

Flores looked "pretty rusty" in instructional league play, according to scouts.

No mention of Fairchild in her response.

This bit was interesting: "And don't write off Michael Bourn just yet. One scout that saw him in winter ball thought the light bulb came on, with Bourn showing all of his tools." Glad to hear it.

Luis Cruz compared to J.C. Romero.

"Dydalewicz generated a lot of excitement, both inside and outside of the Astros system."

Bogusevic needs to work on pulling the ball. Never heard that one before.


Not much else. A lot of repeating what we already know and a lot of ripping the farm system in general.

[JaneDoe]

The Astros still say Paulino will be ready for spring training.

Speaking of, its not that far away.  Don't pitchers and catchers report a week from tomorrow?

[Jacksonian]

A few highlights from the chat:


The Astros still say Paulino will be ready for spring training. He was apparently throwing off flat ground over the winter.

Flores looked "pretty rusty" in instructional league play, according to scouts.

No mention of Fairchild in her response.

This bit was interesting: "And don't write off Michael Bourn just yet. One scout that saw him in winter ball thought the light bulb came on, with Bourn showing all of his tools." Glad to hear it.

Luis Cruz compared to J.C. Romero.

"Dydalewicz generated a lot of excitement, both inside and outside of the Astros system."

Bogusevic needs to work on pulling the ball. Never heard that one before.


Not much else. A lot of repeating what we already know and a lot of ripping the farm system in general.

Paulino and Flores comments are what I've heard and IMO not encouraging.

Pulling the ball and showing power are what Bennett, I believe, or maybe Heck, have mentioned as an area they expect him to improve on.

Dydalewicz is very raw but his arm is live and he hits +90 with movement from the left side.

[Jacksonian]

Here's BA's list, by the by.

1.     Jason Castro,
2.    Bud Norris, rhp
3.    Ross Seaton, rhp
4.    Brian Bogusevic, of
5.    Chris Johnson, 3b
6.    Jordan Lyles, rhp
7.    Felipe Paulino, rhp
8.    Drew Sutton, 2b/ss
9.    Collin DeLome, of
10.    Jay Austin, of

The only big surprise for me is DeLome at 9, but they like his power and athleticism. Also, it should be noted that his scouting report picture has him rocking a mean porn 'stache.

I just read through their Astros top 10 front page.  I don't know who Kary Booher is but her(?) best tools list has problems.

[astrosfan76]

Dydalewicz is very raw but his arm is live and he hits +90 with movement from the left side.

They also rated his changeup as tops in the system, which is pretty good for a kid out of HS.  It's not like we have a lot of guys who are known for their changeups, but Gervacio's is considered plus and was the best in last year's handbook.  So, apparently they like Dydalewicz's more than his.  

[Jacksonian]

They also rated his changeup as tops in the system, which is pretty good for a kid out of HS.  It's not like we have a lot of guys who are known for their changeups, but Gervacio's is considered plus and was the best in last year's handbook.  So, apparently they like Dydalewicz's more than his.  

See my comment above.

[astrosfan76]

See my comment above.

So, would Flores as the Best Defensive Outfielder fall into that same category?  I thought maybe Brad did have a great changeup.  If not him, who would have the best one, in your opinion? 

[moriartp]

Pulling the ball and showing power are what Bennett, I believe, or maybe Heck, have mentioned as an area they expect him to improve on.

I should've made my sarcasm more obvious. The pulling the ball issue has been mentioned in just about every scouting report out there... I sometimes get irked by reading the same thing over and over again without any new analysis (like just about everything in the list/chat).

[Reuben]

I should've made my sarcasm more obvious. The pulling the ball issue has been mentioned in just about every scouting report out there... I sometimes get irked by reading the same thing over and over again without any new analysis (like just about everything in the list/chat).

It also, despite how often it is mentioned, doesn't seem like the worst problem in the world to have. Especially if you're hitting .340 anyway, and you're a big dude like Bogusevic.

[moriartp]

Word.

[Duman]

BA talks to enough scouts and org people till they get a consensus feel for a player.

List are fun but must not be taken too seriously. 

Here is a list from 2004 that looks at how close they were to their predictions.  It is from Rotoworld but also includes rankings from BA & BP.

[juliogotay]

Here is a list from 2004 that looks at how close they were to their predictions.  It is from Rotoworld but also includes rankings from BA & BP.

Even back then a dearth of Houston prospects. This system has been bare for awhile but it also shows how difficult it is to project these guys.

[juliogotay]

Here's BA's list, by the by.

1.     Jason Castro,
2.    Bud Norris, rhp
3.    Ross Seaton, rhp
4.    Brian Bogusevic, of
5.    Chris Johnson, 3b
6.    Jordan Lyles, rhp
7.    Felipe Paulino, rhp
8.    Drew Sutton, 2b/ss
9.    Collin DeLome, of
10.    Jay Austin, of

The only big surprise for me is DeLome at 9, but they like his power and athleticism. Also, it should be noted that his scouting report picture has him rocking a mean porn 'stache.

Paulino and Norris are the only repeaters  from last years list. Four have been traded from last years list, two have slipped further into mediocrity (Iorg and Brad James) and Towles and Bourn got alot of ML exposure last year. It is the second year in a row that the Astros top prospect is listed as a catcher. 4 of the top 10 on this years list were drafted this year. Of the top six 3 were drafted last year and one has changed from pitching to outfield.

[juliogotay]

maybe or maybe these rankings are just worthless

Try these names on for size. The following were coverboys from the last 14 years of BA's NL Central prospect preview. How many became star players?
(listed from this year to 1996).

Alcides Escobar, Brewers
Colby Rasmus, Cards
Andrew McCutchen, Bucs
Felix Pie, Cubs
Brian Dopirak, Cubs
Richie Weeks, Brewers
John VanBenschoten, Bucs
Nick Neugebaur, Brewers
Ben Sheets, Brewers
Corey Patterson, Cubs
J.D. Drew, Cards
Kris Benson, Bucs
Kerry Wood, Cubs
Billy Wagner, Astros

[Reuben]

Try these names on for size. The following were coverboys from the last 14 years of BA's NL Central prospect preview. How many became star players?
(listed from this year to 1996).

Alcides Escobar, Brewers
Colby Rasmus, Cards
Andrew McCutchen, Bucs
Felix Pie, Cubs
Brian Dopirak, Cubs
Richie Weeks, Brewers
John VanBenschoten, Bucs
Nick Neugebaur, Brewers
Ben Sheets, Brewers
Corey Patterson, Cubs
J.D. Drew, Cards
Kris Benson, Bucs
Kerry Wood, Cubs
Billy Wagner, Astros

I'd say just four, although from Pie on up it's probably too early to say (and Weeks could even be a late bloomer).

[farmstros]

has anybody seen the Baseball America Prospect Guide?

[Russe]

Do you mean the 2009 handbook?

[farmstros]

Yes, 2009.  Apparently it came out yesterday.

[Russe]

I wasn't aware that it was out yet--I'll probably swing by Borders over the weekend and check it out.

[farmstros]

Jim Callis was on with Charlie Pallilo yesterday, talking about the Astros farm system and plugging the book

[Jacksonian]

I'll plug this site and myself.  Scout Prospect Guide will be out in February, I believe.  I wrote the Astros segment and SnS is listed as my home site in nice big font at the top.

[astrosfan76]

Yes, 2009.  Apparently it came out yesterday.

Callis said in his chat today that the books have shipped out.  Borders website doesn't have them in-stock until the 10th, though.  So, unless you ordered it through them, it sounds like you will have to wait a couple of weeks before grabbing a copy.

[CarolinaStro]

Baseball America's Top100 list out

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2009/267698.html

[MikeyBoy]

I should've made my sarcasm more obvious. The pulling the ball issue has been mentioned in just about every scouting report out there... I sometimes get irked by reading the same thing over and over again without any new analysis (like just about everything in the list/chat).

I don't see the lack of pulling the ball as an issue? Pulling the ball goes against every hitting philosophy that I've been taught and I can't believe that it would actually be part of a Major League Baseball organization's instruction.

[VirtualBob]

Baseball America's Top100 list out

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2009/267698.html

Has anyone looked at the ~200 players they rate by position?  (Subscription only.)  I'd love to hear where they placed any Astro bus riders on those lists.

[Russe]

Castro was the 6th-ranked catcher, Norris got a honorable mention as an RH reliever for his work in the AFL. That was it.

[jbm]

Any idea what level Lyles will start the season?

[Jacksonian]

Any idea what level Lyles will start the season?

Likely, Lexington.

[Travis]

Any update on the SnS Prospect Guide Jacksonian?

[Jacksonian]

Any update on the SnS Prospect Guide Jacksonian?

Nearly completed.  Hopefully early next week we'll roll it out.

[Travis]

Awesome, thanks.

[accougars]

Nearly completed.  Hopefully early next week we'll roll it out.

I'm not gonna lie, I have been checking in almost everyday for the last week wondering when I will see it. You guys do a great job with it!

[farmstros]

I'm checking for it too. It's the best I've seen.

[Jacksonian]

Now up.

[Mr. Happy]

What a comprehensive job! You guys rock!

[Jacksonian]

What a comprehensive job! You guys rock!

Thanks.

Duman deserves most of the credit.  He wrote more than I, and I was the one who held it up.

[Mr. Happy]

Thanks.

Duman deserves most of the credit.  He wrote more than I, and I was the one who held it up.

The system knowledge that you guys impart ought to be required reading. Thanks.

[astrosfan76]

What were you hearing about Robert Bono?  The ERA wasn't great (though not terrible), but he really improved his K/BB ratio in '08 pitching as a 19-year old at Tri-City with strong GB tendencies.  From what I've read, he sounds like he has good stuff, also. 

[jbm]

Thanks for the work.

Was Meszaros ever considered for the SS watch list?  Those stats were eye-popping.

[Jacksonian]

Thanks for the work.

Was Meszaros ever considered for the SS watch list?  Those stats were eye-popping.

He's worth watching from the standpoint that he's got quite a bit of talent.  But temper that with his injury history.

[Duman]

What were you hearing about Robert Bono?  The ERA wasn't great (though not terrible), but he really improved his K/BB ratio in '08 pitching as a 19-year old at Tri-City with strong GB tendencies.  From what I've read, he sounds like he has good stuff, also. 

The fact that he was sent to Tri Cities as a 19 year old tells you the Astros like his stuff.  I expect him to be at Lexington this year and to show some improvement.

[Hornstros]

The fact that he was sent to Tri Cities as a 19 year old tells you the Astros like his stuff.  I expect him to be at Lexington this year and to show some improvement.

What's your guess on the Lexington rotation?

Seems like they have a logjam with Bono, Greenwalt, Dydaliwitz (spelling), Lyles, Seaton, and Cruz

I know outta the younger guys, Cruz probably has the least upside (completely basing this on draft position) so it seems like he might be the odd man out

[Duman]

What's your guess on the Lexington rotation?

Seems like they have a logjam with Bono, Greenwalt, Dydaliwitz (spelling), Lyles, Seaton, and Cruz

I know outta the younger guys, Cruz probably has the least upside (completely basing this on draft position) so it seems like he might be the odd man out

I think at least 2 and probably 3 of those won't be there.

Cruz got shut down early due to sholder issues.  He will be back in G'ville or in Tri Citys.
Dydaliwitz, & Seaton signed late and only got a few innings in.  Again G'ville or Tri Cities

[Jacksonian]

I think at least 2 and probably 3 of those won't be there.

Cruz got shut down early due to sholder issues.  He will be back in G'ville or in Tri Citys.
Dydaliwitz, & Seaton signed late and only got a few innings in.  Again G'ville or Tri Cities

I agree.  Looking at last year's starters in G'ville and Tri-City, I'd guess the Lex starters are Greenwalt, Bono, Lyles, Noguera, and Holloway.  Holloway is one to watch that wasn't on the top 10 list.  If he can learn to control his stuff he could turn into something very good.

You may see Wolf and Duncan in Lancaster.

Cruz may be a candidate for the new GCL team as well.

[Hornstros]

matter of fact...if i had read the Prospect list in its entirity prior to asking that i would have seen that there is an expectation of Seaton to be in SS ball.   

Really enjoyed reading that.   There were a lot of guys i remembered seeing in box scores from last season that i had completely forgot about.   Hope some of these guys are able to pick up where they left off last season.  No love for Maysonet in the Top 10/20?

[Russe]

I swear I read somewhere that either Heck or Wade said that Lyles, Seaton and Dydalewicz would all be Lex next year, so they could keep pushing each other. Lemme see if I can find the link...

[Russe]

Ok, found it. I t was actually Ricky Bennet on a BA piece on Brad Dydalewicz:

"Dydalewicz was 0-0, 2.70 in four starts at Greeneville, with six strikeouts and three walks in 10 innings. Bennett said he will likely begin this year with a jump to low Class A Lexington.

"We're going to turn him loose," he said. "From an ability standpoint, he has a chance to compete in Lexington. We're going to give him the ball in camp and see how he handles it. Having Dydalewicz, Seaton, Lyles and some of these younger guys, we want to keep them together and have them compete against each other.""

[matadorph]

Footer quotes Wade on Maysonet's future:

"He's going to play in the big leagues for a long time. At some point, he's going to get the opportunity to do it. I just told him, when I got here before last season, people like Tal [Smith] and David [Gottfried] and Ricky [Bennett] and others talked about Maysonet and his ability to play defense all over the place, and his bat was coming, and that's exaclty what we saw when he was here.

"He had a few rough spots in Spring Training defensively, but he has exceptional hands and a strong arm and great instincts. He's going to hit enough to play a lot of games in the big leagues. Right now, with the ability to get a guy like Keppinger, I think it's more appropriate for Edwin to go back and get those at-bats at Triple-A."

[juliogotay]

Footer quotes Wade on Maysonet's future:

"He's going to play in the big leagues for a long time. At some point, he's going to get the opportunity to do it. I just told him, when I got here before last season, people like Tal [Smith] and David [Gottfried] and Ricky [Bennett] and others talked about Maysonet and his ability to play defense all over the place, and his bat was coming, and that's exaclty what we saw when he was here.

"He had a few rough spots in Spring Training defensively, but he has exceptional hands and a strong arm and great instincts. He's going to hit enough to play a lot of games in the big leagues. Right now, with the ability to get a guy like Keppinger, I think it's more appropriate for Edwin to go back and get those at-bats at Triple-A."

Why isn't Maysonet considered a candidate for the SS post-Tejada? It seems as if Manzella has been annoited for the position. Maysonet surely has better offensive potential and it seems he can handle the position. Or, is Manzella's defense so superior that it negates his offensive prowess? It seems like Maysonet is always thought of in terms of a utility player.

[Duman]

Why isn't Maysonet considered a candidate for the SS post-Tejada? It seems as if Manzella has been annoited for the position. Maysonet surely has better offensive potential and it seems he can handle the position. Or, is Manzella's defense so superior that it negates his offensive prowess? It seems like Maysonet is always thought of in terms of a utility player.

Maysonet is 27 at the start of this season (will turn 28 in Oct).  He has likely peaked physically/skill wise. 
Manzella will turn 26 soon after the season starts. 

So Manzella is younger and has a little development left.

Maysonet has a career minor league batting average of .257 but has back to back seasons of hitting .271 at both AA & AAA
Manzella has a career minor league batting average of .260 and hit for a combined .294 over two seasons at AA.  Though he struggled at AAA

Maysonet has played 132 games at SS, 77 games at 2nd, 2 games at 3rd, and 3 games in the OF in the last two years. Fielding % at SS at AA - .962, AAA. .969.
Manzella has played 228 games at SS over the last two years.  (332 over the last 3 years)  Fielding percentage at SS at AA - .980, AAA - .989

Maysonet's bat hasn't been consistently better than Manzella's, though it was at AAA.  Manzella's glove has been consistently better than Maysonet's.  Maysonet stayed in camp longer to be considered for a utility role, which is what it appears he fits best with.

So Manzella has hit better over his career

[juliogotay]

Maysonet is 27 at the start of this season (will turn 28 in Oct).  He has likely peaked physically/skill wise. 
Manzella will turn 26 soon after the season starts. 

So Manzella is younger and has a little development left.

Maysonet has a career minor league batting average of .257 but has back to back seasons of hitting .271 at both AA & AAA
Manzella has a career minor league batting average of .260 and hit for a combined .294 over two seasons at AA.  Though he struggled at AAA

Maysonet has played 132 games at SS, 77 games at 2nd, 2 games at 3rd, and 3 games in the OF in the last two years. Fielding % at SS at AA - .962, AAA. .969.
Manzella has played 228 games at SS over the last two years.  (332 over the last 3 years)  Fielding percentage at SS at AA - .980, AAA - .989

Maysonet's bat hasn't been consistently better than Manzella's, though it was at AAA.  Manzella's glove has been consistently better than Maysonet's.  Maysonet stayed in camp longer to be considered for a utility role, which is what it appears he fits best with.

So Manzella has hit better over his career

Thanks, Duman. You Du Man.

[JimR]

Why isn't Maysonet considered a candidate for the SS post-Tejada? It seems as if Manzella has been annoited for the position. Maysonet surely has better offensive potential and it seems he can handle the position. Or, is Manzella's defense so superior that it negates his offensive prowess? It seems like Maysonet is always thought of in terms of a utility player.

pssssst: offense and defense are separate. one does not negate the other.

[VirtualBob]

pssssst: [threadkiller]offense and defense are separate. one does not negate the other.[/threadkiller]

fify

[Reuben]

pssssst: offense and defense are separate. one does not negate the other.

But below-average defense would probably negate one's chances of being a starting SS for the Astros.

[Russe]

Has anyone heard anything about Priday? Is he still on the restricted list?

[farmstros]

This is interesting about Priday... he is not listed in the Astros 2009 Media Guide, for what it's worth.